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Poll: McCain Most Electable Republican In Massachusetts
A new SurveyUSA poll in Massachusetts shows that despite his problems in all the primaries and caucuses, John McCain continues to be the most electable Republican, barely losing to Hillary Clinton and even edging out Barack Obama in this liberal state:
Clinton (D) 54%, Giuliani (R) 40%
Clinton (D) 59%, Romney (R) 35%
Clinton (D) 61%, Huckabee (R) 31%
Clinton (D) 50%, McCain (R) 45%
Obama (D) 46%, Giuliani (R) 44%
Obama (D) 54%, Romney (R) 37%
Obama (D) 57%, Huckabee (R) 27%
McCain (R) 47%, Obama (D) 44%
Despite the fact that he was governor — or perhaps because of his controversial tenure — Mitt Romney doesn't even come close to being competitive in his home state. A month ago, his campaign tacitly conceded that they won't contest the state if Romney is nominated.
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2008 Presidential Candidate Weekly Poll
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Results Posted Weekly Tuesday Night at Midnight.
November 29, 2007 11:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
If anyone knows how to hack that “Votenic” site into oblivion, I’d be willing to contribute to a legal defense fund…
November 29, 2007 11:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
As a former Massachusetts resident, you can be sure as hell Mitt Romney won't do well among the moderate independents who once supported him, only to have him turn on a dime & repeatedly mock Massachusetts on the campaign trail. He is not a trustworthy figure to the average Massachusetts voter...
November 30, 2007 12:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Breaking story: Barack Obama is meeting Mike Bloomberg tomorrow morning, which could lead to a lot of positive buzz and media frenzy.
November 30, 2007 1:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
The cross-tabs explain why McCain did relatively well.
Massachusetts broke down 15% Republican, 40% Democratic, and 43% independent in this survey. Obviously that means a Republican could not do well in a Massachusetts poll like this just by appealing to Republicans.
But McCain beat both Clinton and Obama among independents (with a bigger margin against Obama, which is why Obama came out behind while Clinton did not). Just as important, he got 26% of Democrats against Clinton and 25% of Democrats against Obama.
Of course all these numbers are bound to change once the the general campaigns have begun. In particularly, it is extremely likely the cross-overs numbers will go down once the nominees are settled (but not to zero--there are always some cross-over voters).
But if there is a lesson to be learned here, it is that McCain so far appears to be the possible Republican nominee with the most appeal among independents and Democrats--something that is probably not all that surprising. And while that probably would not be enough to win him Massachusetts, it could make him competitive in states Kerry barely won last time, like PA, MI, WI, and MN, and make it easier for McCain to hold onto similar states that Kerry barely lost.
All of which adds up to a possible Republican win despite what is shaping up to be a systematic party ID advantage for the Democrats. So I personally believe that McCain has a strong case for being the Republican with the best chance to actually win in what is likely to be a tough environment for a generic Republican. Again, that is true for the unsurprising reason that McCain has the most appeal among Democrats and independents.
November 30, 2007 2:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not surprsingly, McCain also angers most Republicans.
November 30, 2007 5:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
kleefeld weeps:
Mandates and Mudslinging
But now Mr. Obama, who just two weeks ago was telling audiences that his plan was essentially identical to the Edwards and Clinton plans, is attacking his rivals and claiming that his plan is superior. It isn’t — and his attacks amount to cheap shots.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/30/opinion/30krugman.html?_r=2&hp&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
November 30, 2007 8:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Krugman is an excellent economist, but his political analysis leaves a lot to be desired. For example, he frames this as Obama attacking his rivals using the details of his health care plan, but of course it is actually Clinton who is trying to attack Obama on this issue, and these issues are arising from Obama's defense of his plan.
By the way, automatic enrollment does not really address the enforcement issue as Krugman implies, because you would still have to enforce the actual payment of the premiums. And if you are not going to enforce the premium payments, then enrollment alone does not actually address the economic concerns raised by Krugman.
November 30, 2007 8:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
If McCain is the most electable Republican in Mass, that makes him the most unelectable Republican candidate.
BFD.
November 30, 2007 8:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
That Obama-Giuliani number which is probably within the margin of error is not so great either - I know nobody in Mass knows who Obama is yet! (answered for the next person)
November 30, 2007 9:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've told you that McCain is the most electable and also that Hillary is the most electable Demo.
That doesn't mean the most humane or the best for humanity.
But Hillary might be the lesser of two evils. And I for one am sick of such extreme evil. How about you?
December 1, 2007 2:59 AM | Reply | Permalink