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Poll: Huckabee Leads In Iowa!
Wow. We now have the first poll showing Mike Huckabee leading in Iowa. The new Rasmussen poll gives Huckabee 28%, Romney 25%, Giuliani 12% and Fred Thompson 11%.
Huckabee has been putting a huge focus on Iowa, pitching himself as the Christian right's alternative to the likes of Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani. And while this poll might just be an outlier — the other recent Iowa polls have had Romney leading, but by only narrow margins — this is definitely a sign that Huckabee has caught on. Now we just have to see if other polls will confirm it, and if Huckabee can build up his popularity in other states, too.
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How about headlining that Hillary Poll!!!! Go Hillary!!!
November 28, 2007 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Was going to ask about the methodology - re the Democratic numbers as well as the Republican numbers listed in the poll tracker to the right.
Seems Rasmussen doesn't have a tight race on the Democratic side at all - odd
November 28, 2007 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's a mistaken label in the upper right box -- Hillary's not leading 40 to 18 in IA, that's actually Rasmussen's national daily tracking poll.
November 28, 2007 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric
There is an error in your Poll Tracker. The Rasmussen numbers that were just posted are for a national poll and not for IA.
Rudy is sinking fast, as the Republicans rediscover their true colors in Huckabee. Romney's mormonism and recent flaps might doom him unless he wins BOTH IA and NH.
November 28, 2007 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unless Romney does something dramatic in the next two weeks, it looks like Huckabee is going to win Iowa. His trend is solidly upward, and poll internals have shown that his supporters are more solid.
http://www.pollster.com/08-IA-Rep-Pres-Primary.php
The question then is what happens in New Hampshire? I don't think Huckabee can win there, but how badly will Romney be injured? Enough that Giuliani or McCain can win? They have both recently started to advertise heavily in New Hampshire. Romney's current lead is 10, but if he loses a close Iowa race that is portrayed as an upset by the media, that could be very costly. At the very least, the other candidates will likely get another look by the NH GOP primary voters. Also interesting is where the NH independents go.
http://www.pollster.com/08-NH-Rep-Pres-Primary.php
November 28, 2007 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
For a long time I have suspected McCain is the perfect position to become the default choice if the Republican primaries end up being as chaotic as they currently appear. But we shall see.
November 28, 2007 12:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
As an explicitly Christianist candidate, Huckabee is scary in a similar way to how Pat Robertson was scary 20 years ago. (Though, in my opinion, he's much less scary than Giuliani as an implicitly fascist candidate.)
But in that his candidacy could irreconcilably split the Christianists from the Greed Wing of the Republican Party--the Norquist/Club for Growth a-holes who would rather see bridges collapse than pay an extra couple thou in taxes, and loathe Huckabee for his dissenting view on that question--I wish him nothing but the best.
November 28, 2007 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dems should not be pleased with this development. He is the least flawed of the goopers, and has crossover appeal to moderate independents. In a matchup against HRC or Obama the dems will have their work cut out for them.
November 28, 2007 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is difficult to elect a President during wartime with zero foreign policy or national security credentials.
Clinton would carve up Huckabee on the "commander-in-chief" threshold question. We have 200,000 troops in active combat zones.
November 28, 2007 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary would get clobbered by Huckabee-----just on the trust issue, alone. The republicans would be reassured that he would have competent advisers to cancel out the misperception that hillary has some sort of clue about foreign policy.
All she learned from Bill is---if you are being impeached---bomb somebody.
Obama would beat Huckabee.
Hillary does have a chance if the republicans are idiotic enough to nominate Giuliani.
November 28, 2007 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
You need about five or six more articles to post in order to make the embarrassment of the Clinton Colin Powell thing, and Bill's bald faced lies about opposing the war in iraq disappear into the archives.
Get on it. Use Ben Smith's blog if you have to, but get that embarrassing krap out of sight.
November 28, 2007 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
uh oh. now you hve done it. Your new post on Bill and iraq has punctured my rage at your bias.
November 28, 2007 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
God won't let it happen -
because Rudy protected new yorkers
November 28, 2007 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
hwc,
That would be a stronger argument (although not necessarily for Clinton personally) if the Democrats were not going to be running on an anti-war platform. Indeed, it confuses that message considerably to simultaneously argue, "We need to ends these wars!", and "Vote for me because I would be a better wartime President!"
November 28, 2007 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Seth"--
I was there that morning. Must have missed Rudy's "protection."
As did the dozens of firefighters and rescue personnel who needlessly died because of Giulliani's asinine decision to put the command center in the WTC, and his deplorable failure to give them the communication equipment they needed.
But I'm guessing you're neither a New Yorker nor a particularly well-informed or thoughtful person, so don't let any of that trouble your certitude.
Asshole.
November 28, 2007 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Huckabee lesst flawed??? You gotta be kidding me!!!! Mitt Romney is a perfect candidate. If he were any Christian religion besides a member of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints, he would cruise though this whole process with no competition whatsoever. The bigots are going to cause Rudy to get in for not supporting someone that can actually beat him. Huckabee has no chance at the nomination, and he has lots and lots of dirt yet to be uncovered and thrown on him.
November 28, 2007 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
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November 28, 2007 10:32 PM | Reply | Permalink