Hillary's race has few undecided. That goes up with the other candidates. Shrug. So what?

To my knowledge, Obama has hardly ever campaigned in Ohio. These polls present only the surface of what it would take to establish "electability". Obama's crossover appeal is well established. The question is whether he can translate being liked into being broadly supported for president. Where he has campaigned, Obama has been able to do that. I remain convinced that Obama has the best chance to build a progressive consensus, though I acknowledge a strong case can be made for Edwards' more populist appeal. I think with Hillary minds are made up. She'd win but she has no room to grow the margin and win a strong mandate.

These posts about state-specific surveys are annoying, and about as pointless in general as national surveys. Even in early states, people don't know Obama as well as they know Clinton, so much, or at least some, of her numbers are because of her higher name recognition she's known to voters while he isn't. This is almost certainly the case in states like Ohio, where Obama has never campaigned beyond perhaps a rally and a few fundraisers. Of course, IF he were the Dem nominee, he'd be campaigning there and Ohioans would know who he is, and the numbers would likely be different.

While we don't KNOW how voters in Ohio will rate Obama vs. the Republican nominee until a poll is taken after the primary, it is certainly more than reasonable that Hillary's slightly better numbers are a result of her greater name recognition. What annoys me is why this dynamic isn't mentioned when you report these polls -- if you're writing for TPM, surely you understand this dynamic, and yet you remain silent. It is the old "fact" with no analysis crap that we get from traditional media that sites like TPM were supposed to get beyond.

Agree, agree, agree. If the general election was being held next week, these results might be significant. Instead, almost a year exists before people go to the polls, meaning everything will change due to campaigning and ads and everything else between now and then.

While Josh has remained very neutral and independent thus far, the bias nature of the reporting (editorializing) by some of the other contributors, Eric in particular, has been nothing short of shameful.

I see Senator Clinton is still the one to beat!

I knew Eric would get bashed by the large amount of Obama's staff that frequents the site. Please god, let Edwards be the nominee. I'd like to see a Dem in the WH. Hillary may be a Republican get out the vote getter, but she'll pale in comparison to a black man, Obama could probably win NY and CA, the other 48 (maybe sans Hawaii) would be a real long shot.

anonymous,

All the data I have seen suggests that Obama's race is not in fact a significant issue, including among white voters, conservative voters, Republican voters, rural voters, and so on.

So what is your evidence to the contrary?

All the data I have seen suggests that Obama's race is not in fact a significant issue, including among white voters, conservative voters, Republican voters, rural voters, and so on.

For someone constantly poo-pooing "the data" it's interesting you appear to be thoroughly gullible regarding this.

anonymous wrote on November 15, 2007 2:36 PM:
I knew Eric would get bashed by the large amount of Obama's staff that frequents the site. Please god, let Edwards be the nominee.''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''

There are a lot of us supporting Obama who recognize this ridiculous crap of belittling, or ignoring Edwards as wrong.

The msm absolutely refuses to look at the possible effects of proportional representation, which could lead to a three way battle at the convention itself. In a three way battle---I doubt if hillary would be the compromise.

The sooner they get rid of Edwards, the sooner they will be able to eliminate Obama.

So you are not saying you don't understand that people lie?

but she'll pale in comparison to a black man, Obama could probably win NY and CA, the other 48 (maybe sans Hawaii) would be a real long shot.

That Obama's race is an issue is already apparent in the fact that despite having outfundraised HRC in two quarters and having raised millions overall, he's been trailing her by double digits since they entered the race. Translation: People truly like Obama but they do not think that he can win because he is a black man. So, they "split the difference": They give him money because they truly like what he stands for and seems to represent at this time in American Politics, but they the tell pollsters that they would vote for or support Clinton because they think that she can win. Voila, their conscience is clear...

What I can say for sure is that, so far, there is no evidence of a "gender" problem, but that may be because some people do believe that she does have a couple of real cojones under those feminine dresses (oops! wrong candidate, that would be Rudy, the cross-dresser!)

A white woman
A Black Man
A Mormon
A Cross-dresser
A melting-pot...just like America.

(Big Grin)...

loki,

With respect to the lying issue, I assume you are talking about the so-called "Bradley Effect" or "Wilder Effect" (referring to cases in which black politicians polled significantly better than the actual results). But people studied the 2006 election with this specific question in mind, and found almost no evidence of an ongoing Bradley/Wilder effect in the 2006 polling. See here:

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/408/can-you-trust-what-polls-say-about-obamas-electoral-prospects

With respect to what the future may hold: obviously people know Obama is black. But the role race plays in the final outcome in the election may also depend on various future events (such as, for example, how Obama and his opponents talk about his race).

dcshungu,

Did you really just argue that the only reason Clinton is ahead in the polls is that she is white and Obama is black? Do you have a shred of evidence for that claim?

And please note that Clinton is not the only white person in the Democratic field. Strangely enough, Obama is polling ahead of all those other white people. Curious.