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Poll: Dems Over 50% On Congressional Ballot — But Public Discontent Is Growing
A new CNN poll shows the Democrats leading the Republicans in the generic Congressional ballot by a 53%-42% margin.
On the other hand, a 53% majority also say that most members of Congress do not deserve to be re-elected, the highest number since 1991, when the question was first asked.
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Generally speaking, whenever people start thinking we should throw those bums out of Congress, it's other peoples' bums they're talking about. For example in this very same CNN poll, the number of people who thought their own Congresscritters did not deserve re-election was 39%. Again the highest number this particular pollster has recorded since they began asking the question in 1991 apparently, but hardly the stuff that lasting social change is made of.
A better number to keep an eye on really is the national generic congressional ballot -- anything to the effect of "If the election were held today, would you be voting for a Democratic candidate or a Republican?" It's still a pretty blunt instrument but any time the net positive for Democrats goes above 6 or 7% in that one, Democrats tend to pick up seats. (The question of why the break-even point for Dem's tends to be 5-6% is of course a topic of much discussion among people who spend a lot of time discussing such things.)
November 9, 2007 9:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Based on all the polling and what the republicans have been doing in the house and senate, I would not want to be a republican running for reelection in 08. The current situation has the makings of a tsunami sweeping alot of republicans out of congress. Once again, it depends on the dem nominee. Clinton and it will be a little wave or stagnant. Any other dem and it will be a tsunami.
November 9, 2007 9:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
This should not hurt Democrats, given the situation in the House: Check out this complete race-by-race analysis and ranking of all vulnerable seats, and it is obvious that things are favoring Democrats.
Michael, there is absolutely NO evidence to support what you are saying. It's stunning how much there is NONE. Quite the contrary, polls have shown Hillary running much stronger than Obama and Edwards in purple states like Kentucky or Tennessee or even Texas, so in fact most indications would tend to show you are dead wrong.
November 9, 2007 10:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
2008 Presidential Election Weekly Poll
http://www.votenic.com
Results Posted Every Tuesday Evening.
November 9, 2007 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
I guess I should put my observations in caps, that must make it more accurate or infalible or something. What's stunning is the cherry picking of polls by clinton supporters and then the invariable smack down. You have your opinion and I have mine.
How about polls in virginia and Florida for instance? How about polls in pennsylvania? What do they look like? How about the generic dem poll for president at 54% or so and she isn't even cracking 50% nationwide and there isn't alot of room for movement due to her high negatives?
My favorite poll is the recent gallop poll that shows 78% of republicans would never vote for clinton, while 39% are for obama, 43% are against and 18% are undecided. I guess that's no evidence.
How about the fact that clinton in poll after poll is shown to be more devisive than obama or edwards. I guess that's no evidence either.
Oh, well, I am sure I'll get the smack down from dc et al, pontificating about how far ahead clinton is in NY and Cali vs Mr. 9/11. Like he or any republican nominee has a chance in either state, but clinton will bring out the republicans in droves to vote against her and in turn against down-ticket dems. This is one of the primary bases for my opinion.
So I would say "dead wrong" is a little over the top, I could be wrong, but I would say I have evidence to back up my opinion that says that I could be right. Odds are I am more right than wrong and therefore, anybody but clinton in 08.
November 9, 2007 11:26 AM | Reply | Permalink