Reality check:

In this case, Carson's retirement makes it as safer Democratic seat -- this is an urban district that votes solidly Democratic for President and other offices. In recent years, Rep. Carson underperformed Democratic voting strength in the district.

The only reason that Republicans were able to make this any kind of race at all was that the incumbent was weakened by her age and health and was therefore perceived by voters as a less than vigorous Representative. (Helped along by the fact that the Republican had the same name as a well know Indianapolis Colts football star.) In a open race with a younger Democratic candidate, and in a Presidential year, the odds will heavily favor a Democratic retetion.

This is similar to a number of Republican districts where the retirement of a weak Republican incumbent woyuld actually make things easier for the GOP to hold the seat (Barbara Cubin stepping down in Wyoming is the best example, but the same would hold with Rick Renzi in AZ, as well as John Doolittle in CA and Don Young in Alaska if they don't run).

If seats like this are what the Republicans are hoping to turn in a pick-ups, 2008 is going to be a severe disappointment for them.