In an interview with the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza, Mitt Romney gave a taste of how he'll contrast himself with Mike Huckabee in the weeks to come: Romney boasts that he has spent his life in the productive work of business, and supports tax cuts, while Huckabee is a career politician who loves to tax, spend, and coddle illegal immigrants.

Hillary Clinton's itinerary was certainly thrown off by the hostage crisis yesterday at her Rochester, New Hampshire, office — but it may well have turned out for the best, in terms of the politics.

Hillary flew to New Hampshire last night to meet with the now-safe hostages, and held a press conference flanked by state police, thanking law enforcement and also commending the many young people who come to New Hampshire to help campaign:

One thing to look out for in the polls to come is whether Hillary's poise here — such as her comment that she was personally in touch with police and the victims' families while the situation was underway — will net her a boost in the polls in New Hampshire and other states.

Less than a week after enacting a controversial loyalty oath requirement in order to participate in their primary, the Virginia Republican Party has reversed course and voted to cancel the rule. The oath would have required primary voters to sign in writing that they intend to vote for the eventual Republican presidential nominee.

"We want to attract people to the Republican Party," said Fairfax County Republican Committee chairman Jim Hyland. "The perception was that it was more of a closed-door policy, and we want an open-door policy."

Hillary Clinton has been enjoying an overwhelming lead in New Hampshire polls over the last few months — but not anymore. The new Rasmussen poll shows Hillary at 33%, Barack Obama with 26%, and John Edwards at 15%. This confirms other recent polls showing a tightening race in New Hampshire.

The Hillary campaign had been building up New Hampshire as their "firewall" against a poor result in Iowa, but the recent trends indicate they're going to have to work here, too. This poll was taken before the recent hostage crisis at Hillary's Rochester office, so there's no telling how (or if) that could affect the polls.

Mitt Romney was asked today in Iowa about the Shag Fund accusations against Rudy Giuliani, and for now he's declining to condemn Rudy. It's possible Romney doesn't want to look too negative in piling on in this case — or perhaps he just doesn't want to interfere while Rudy is busy treading water here. After all, staying silent will deprive Rudy of any plausible chance to blame his rivals for fanning the story.

"This is something the mayor is addressing and I think we ought to give him the opportunity to address that as he feels appropriate," Romney said. "I really don't have anything to say, or to add to the discussion other than, let's let him have an ample chance to look at the history and explain what he feels is needed."

The Republican leadership races on December 6, triggered by the sudden resignation announcement by Senate Minority Whip Trent Lott (MS), will have one less potential competitor. Senator John Thune (SD) has announced that he won't be running for any of the open leadership posts, CQ reports, instead remaining in his current role as chief deputy whip. He had previously been considering the posts of conference chair or chair of the policy committee.

Thune had become a favorite of Republicans after he defeated then-Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D) in 2004. But for now, it looks like he won't be trying to build on his giant-killer reputation by moving up in his own party's leadership.

The new Fox News poll of New Hampshire shows the Democratic primary race tightening up, with 30% for Hillary Clinton, 23% for Barack Obama, and 17% for John Edwards, plus Bill Richardson with 12%. With numbers like these, Obama or Edwards might be able to grab a victory if either of them can first beat Hillary in Iowa.

On the Republican side, Fox has Mitt Romney at 29%, John McCain at 21%, and Rudy Giuliani with 19%. Mike Huckabee has only 7% in this poll, differing from two other polls out today that showed Huckabee becoming more competitive.

WNBC's local affiliate has this:

ROCHESTER, N.H. -- An armed man who appeared to have a bomb strapped to himself has asked to speak with Hillary Clinton after taking hostages at her campaign office in Rochester, N.H., sources said.

No confirmation yet from the Clinton camp.

CNN is reporting that two hostages being held by a man with a bomb in Hillary's campaign office in Rochester, N.H., has been released. Earlier it was reported that there were only two inside, but some reports say there's a third still being held.

A swat team has surrounded the building and is talking to the hostage taker. They've told him that they're not coming inside, the network says.

Late Update: CNN first reported that one hostage had been released, but then quickly updated it to report that two had.

Late Late Update: It now is being reported that a total of three, including a baby, have been released. Still unclear whether any hostages are left inside.

Continually updating below.

From local WCVP-TV in Boston comes some frightening news::

BOSTON -- A man took people hostage Friday at a Hillary Clinton presidential campaign office in New Hampshire, police said.

The incident happened at about 1 p.m. Friday at 28 North Main St. in Rochester. Officials said that a man is holding people hostage at the office, but it is unclear how many people are being held.

The St. Elizabeth Seaton School and other surrounding buildings have been locked down.

Hillary is not there -- she's in Washington, D.C., at the Democratic National Committee meeting.

More as we learn it.

Late Update: Here's some more from New Hampshire's WMUR -- looks like a suicide bomber might be doing this:

Officials with the campaign confirmed that there were two workers taken hostage in the office on 28 North Main St.. A woman and her baby told workers at a neighboring business that she was released by the hostage-taker.

"A young woman with a 6-month or 8-month-old infant came rushing into the store just in tears, and she said, 'You need to call 911. A man has just walked into the Clinton office, opened his coat and showed us a bomb strapped to his chest with duct tape,'" witness Lettie Tzizik said.

Jesus.

Late Late Update: WMUR adds that a New Hampshire office for Barack Obama has been evacuated, with no injuries. Apparently this Obama office is two doors down from the Hillary one where the hostages have been taken.

Still later update: The Hillary office is surrounded by a SWAT team, CNN sez, adding that the hostage-taker is a guy "in his forties, with salt and pepper hair."

More updates: Edwards' nearby campaign office has been evacuated, and all staff has been accounted for. And Hillary has canceled her scheduled speech at the DNC today, with her campaign releasing the following statement:

There is an ongoing situation in our Rochester, NH office. We are in close contact with state and local authorities and are acting at their direction. We will release additional details as appropriate.

Another update: CNN reports that one of the two hostages has been released.

More updates: CNN says two hostages have been released -- it's unclear if there are more inside.

And another report says that the hostage-taker demanded to speak to Hillary.

Yet another poll shows that Mike Huckabee is rising up in New Hampshire. The new Rasmussen poll shows Huckabee in a three-way dead heat for second place. The numbers: Romney 34%, Giuliani 15%, McCain 15%, Huckabee 15%. This is on top of today's ARG poll showing Huckabee in third place here.

Huckabee had previously been invisible in the New Hampshire polls, but he's now on the board as a serious competitor. If he wins Iowa, then there's no telling what kind of boost he could get in the New Hampshire contest, five days later.

Hillary Clinton has been hitting Barack Obama's health plan for a while — and now she's hitting his ad about the subject. The Clinton campaign has now sent the Obama camp a letter, demanding that he take down one of his ads, on the grounds that his claim to "cover everyone" is fraudulent.

"Until the time comes when Sen. Obama has a plan that will cover everyone, you should stop running this false advertisement," wrote Hillary adviser Patti Solis Doyle. "The American people deserve an honest debate about health care."

"The Clinton campaign didn't say a word when this ad was released a month ago, and the only thing that's changed since then is the poll numbers," Obama spokesman Bill Burton wrote to Ben Smith. "The truth is, Barack Obama's universal plan will provide coverage to every single American who can't afford it and do more to cut the cost of health care than any other plan in this race. Rather than spending their time attacking Barack Obama, the Clinton campaign should explain how exactly they plan to force every American to buy health insurance even if they can't afford it."

A sign of Romney's nervousness about Huckabee's surge in Iowa? The Romney campaign has just dropped this mailer in Iowa hitting Huckabee and his other GOP rivals on immigration.

In keeping with the Romney camp's argument that he's the only candidate who's reliably conservative on all fronts, the mailer says Romney is the only one who's right on all immigration questions -- he's opposed to amnesty, sheltering illegal immigrants and giving benefits to illegals. Click on the pages below to enlarge:

Here's a sign that Mitt Romney's campaign is taking the threat of Mike Huckabee very seriously: After having led in Iowa by wide margins for the past several months they're already starting to spin a potential second-place finish now that they're in a tight race.

"It would be nice if Romney won," said Doug Gross, the 2002 GOP nominee for governor and a member of Romney's Iowa campaign, according to the Los Angeles Times. "If he finishes in the top two, he's fine."

A new set of polls from American Research Group confirm that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are in a tight race in Iowa — this time giving Obama a statistically insignificant lead — and more importantly corroborates other polls showing Mike Huckabee surging on the Republican side.

Huckabee is behind Mitt Romney by only one point in Iowa, and has also moved into third place in both New Hampshire and South Carolina. The poll also shows Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney in a tight race in South Carolina, contradicting a Clemson poll showing Rudy way behind — but this could plausibly be due to the lower number of undecideds, essentially pushing leaners into becoming soft supporters.

The full results are available after the jump.

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The National Republican Congressional Committee isn't taking anything for granted in an upcoming special election in Virginia, even though the district itself is heavily Republican. Roll Call reports that the NRCC is spending about $39,000 to attack the Democratic candidate, Iraq War veteran Philip Forgit, and about $3,100 on phone banking to get out the vote for Republican state Delegate Rob Wittman.

The First Congressional District went for President Bush with 60% of the vote in 2004, and gave George Allen 54% of the vote in 2006. It was vacated by the death of Congresswoman Jo Ann Davis. The special election will be held December 11.

Now this is interesting. Senator Lindsay Graham (R-SC) has attracted a primary challenge from former RNC member Buddy Witherspoon, who is running to Graham's right on illegal immigration. As it turns out — and despite Witherspoon's recent denials — he has been a proud member of a white supremacist organization, the Palmetto Scoop has uncovered.

Witherspoon recently said claims that he had been a member of the segregationist Council of Conservative Citizens were "totally absurd" and that he had only ever been to one meeting. But in 1999, he told the Washington Post that he was a member, and that "Everything to me is fine from what I see and hear." Furthermore, this was at the same time as he was a Republican National Committeeman in good standing.

The Des Moines Register has a piece on the changing political style of John Edwards — and notes how some Iowa Democrats view the changes as being politically driven. It's not the sort of press Edwards should want to get from the state's largest paper, which endorsed him in the 2004 caucus.

"Four years ago, the fresh-faced then-North Carolina senator defended his support for the Iraq war, prescribed a gradual approach to health care reform and told Iowa caucusgoers not to expect him to criticize his fellow Democrats running for president," the paper writes. "Today, he calls his Iraq vote a mistake, embraces universal health care and regularly attacks party front-runner Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York."

A new SurveyUSA poll in Massachusetts shows that despite his problems in all the primaries and caucuses, John McCain continues to be the most electable Republican, barely losing to Hillary Clinton and even edging out Barack Obama in this liberal state:

Clinton (D) 54%, Giuliani (R) 40%
Clinton (D) 59%, Romney (R) 35%
Clinton (D) 61%, Huckabee (R) 31%
Clinton (D) 50%, McCain (R) 45%
Obama (D) 46%, Giuliani (R) 44%
Obama (D) 54%, Romney (R) 37%
Obama (D) 57%, Huckabee (R) 27%
McCain (R) 47%, Obama (D) 44%

Despite the fact that he was governor — or perhaps because of his controversial tenure — Mitt Romney doesn't even come close to being competitive in his home state. A month ago, his campaign tacitly conceded that they won't contest the state if Romney is nominated.

Hillary Clinton might be facing a tough race in Iowa, but it's not even close in Florida. A new CNN poll shows Hillary with 51% — more than half of respondents — with Barack Obama way behind at 21%, and John Edwards with 11%. And even though the DNC has stripped the primary of any actual delegates, there is bound to be a boost from the popular win here.

Hillary has been consistently leading in almost every state other than Iowa. With results this overwhelming, the other Democrats won't have a chance unless they can throw her momentum off in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Some of Ron Paul's fans, who are accustomed to seeing him as different from his GOP rivals, might be disappointed by this new mailer Paul has dropped in South Carolina, which was forwarded our way by a GOP operative.

It traffics in nativism every bit as rank as that espoused by the other GOPers:

Paul has said he would end "birthright citizenship," which grants citizenship to children of illegals born in this country, by changing the 14th Amendment to the Constitution. Check out the rest of the mailer after the jump.

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I have now spoken to a fourth person who has claimed on the record that Mitt Romney did in fact nix the idea of having Muslims in his cabinet, despite his claim that he never said this.

Jarret Keene, a freelance reporter for a libertarian mag called Liberty Watch Magazine, tells me that he was at a private fundraising luncheon three months ago where he heard Romney say this.

"He was asked if he would appoint a Muslim to his cabinet," Keene told me. "And he said, `Not likely.' He said flatly that it was highly unlikely that it was ever going to happen."

This runs directly contradictory to Romney's defense of himself on the issue.

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New Jersey Republicans have lost their top recruit to run for the open seat of retiring Rep. Jim Saxton (R-NJ) today: State Senator Diane Allen, who was considered a potentially formidable contender for the open seat, released a statement that cited the specter of a contentious GOP primary for her decision.

The news strengthens the hand of Democrats, who believe that their recruit, state Sen. John Adler, is well-poised to capture this moderate swing district.

CNN has a new Rudy response to the big Politico story suggesting that his trysts with Judi were done on the taxpayers' dime:

WASHINGTON (CNN) — Republican Rudy Giuliani denied any wrongdoing related to his travel expenses to the Hamptons when he was mayor of New York, and said the story was a 'hit job' likely fueled by opposition research from a rival campaign.

"I thought the way the story was presented was like a hit job," the presidential candidate told CNN's John Roberts after the CNN/YouTube debate Wednesday night. "Coming two hours before this debate, I kind of got the idea that it was not a legitimate story."

Maybe the story is all Hillary's fault?

Late Update: The writer of the piece, Ben Smith, has now responded to the Rudy camp's pushback, pointing out that the Rudy crew has yet to explain "why these expenses were billed to obscure City Hall offices rather than, for example, directly to the Mayor's office, which has its own line within the budget of the Mayoralty."

Here's some comically bad timing: A day after Rudy got hit with that story suggesting that obscure city agencies were footing the bill for his trips to see Judi Nathan, he's up on the air with a new ad in New Hampshire saying that he "Made government more accountable." Take a look:

The Republicans are reportedly set to have their first Senate candidate with a realistic shot of picking off a Democratic incumbent. Political Wire reports that Louisiana Treasurer John Kennedy (R) will announce his campaign against Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu early next year, and has already been soliciting campaign contributions. Kennedy used to be a Democrat, and ran for Senate as a Dem in 2004, but was recruited by Karl Rove to switch parties and run against Landrieu.

Landrieu is probably the single most endangered Democratic Senate incumbent, as she represents a Deep South state that has been trending more and more Republican — a situation that was exacerbated by the flight of many poor African-Americans after Hurricane Katrina. On the other hand, her vocal advocacy for Katrina victims might be able to endear her to the remainder of the electorate.

Late Update: Kennedy has updated his Web site, confirming the news.

By now you've heard about the big story that The Politico broke yesterday: That as New York mayor he apparently made trips to the Hamptons to see Judi Nathan on the taxpayer's dime while still married to Donna Hanover.

In light of this, I thought it would be worth recalling a story that everyone's forgotten now but that is suddenly very relevant in light of these revelations:

In 2001, the last year of Rudy's mayoralty, the city gave Judi her own taxpayer-funded security detail, too -- even as it reduced the size of the security detail assigned to Rudy's soon-to-be-ex.

From the New York Post on June 4, 2001:

The Post has learned that city detectives have once again been assigned to protect Mayor Giuliani's girlfriend, even as he has scaled back the size of his estranged wife's police detail.

Nathan and her pooch were seen yesterday being escorted to her Upper East Side apartment by one of the detectives now assigned to watch over her during the day when she's not at the mayor's side.

Police protection, provided by one detective at a time, began about two to three weeks ago after the mayor's divorce case, heated up and brought intense media scrutiny on Nathan, sources said.

Providing a detective for 12 hours every day would likely require at least three cops -- exactly how many were yanked from Hanover's staff when the mayor fired her as first lady May 24.

Each cop who is involved makes about $100,000 a year, including overtime.

Hanover still has a security detail, but she no longer has the three detectives who were assigned to an advance team that would inspect sites where she was scheduled to appear as first lady.

The story wasn't denied by Giuliani's team, and indeed it was picked up by the Associated Press.

What's more, that wasn't the first time Judi enjoyed taxpayer-funded protection, either. She'd been assigned her own detail in January of that year -- but it was yanked after The Post reported on it at the time. Her security detail was quietly reinstated in the spring.

This, combined with Politico's story, reveals just how expensive Rudy's extramarital trysts really were to New Yorkers -- and adds plausibility to the Politico's suggestion that tax money funded Rudy's visits to see Judi in the Hamptons.

CNN has formally apologized for allowing Retired Brig. Gen. Keith Kerr, a Hillary Clinton supporter, to appear at last night's debate and ask the Republican candidates a question about gays in the military.

"We regret this, and apologize to the Republican candidates," CNN senior vice president David Bohrman said in a statement. "We never would have used the General's question had we known that he was connected to any presidential candidate."

Kerr appeared on CNN this morning and said he did not coordinate his action with the Clinton campaign, and has not donated money to Hillary or even done any work with the campaign at all, beyond lending them his name:

Mitt Romney has a new ad in Iowa and New Hampshire — the same video that the campaign showed at last night's CNN/YouTube debate:

Along with laying out all the country's problems — such menaces as terrorists lurking in our airports, Chinese workers competing with us, and gays threatening our marriages — the ad pitches Romney to conservative voters as the can-do guy who can fix the damage. And as Jonathan Martin pointed out, the ad isn't subtle on this point when it shows Romney rolling up his sleeves.

Hillary Clinton has a new ad out in Iowa, in which she's touted as the only candidate strong enough and experienced enough to handle the country's problems from day one:

Remember, the experience issue has been one of Hillary's major points against Barack Obama and John Edwards. If this ad is any indication, we should expect to see that card played more as we go into the home stretch in Iowa and New Hampshire.

A new Rasmussen poll shows a tight three-way race in Iowa. Hillary leads with 27%, while Obama and Edwards are close behind at 25% and 24%, respectively — within the poll's 3% margin of error.

The poll shows little statistically significant change since Rasmussen's last round of polling earlier in the month, but Rasmussen remains one of the few pollsters who still show a slight edge for Hillary in Iowa.

Late Update: Of the last five Iowa Democratic caucus polls, Hillary leads three, is tied in one, and trails Obama in another.

The Mitt Romney campaign has netted another endorsement, this time from American Conservative Union chairman David Keene. Romney has been pitching himself to the right as their man to stand up not only against the Democrats, but also against Rudy Giuliani's liberalism — partly as a way of getting them to forgive his own shortcomings — and this endorsement would indicate that it's working so far.

In the campaign's new press release, Keene says how he'd initially declined to endorse anybody because he had yet to see anybody worthy of unified conservative support — and how he knows it's Romney: "That's why I'm endorsing him and intend to spend as much time as possible in the weeks ahead convincing my fellow conservatives that if we are serious about electing a conservative president in 2008, it's time to unite behind his candidacy."

• The official transcript to last night's Republican debate, hosted by CNN and YouTube, is available here.

• CNN made a huge mistake last night, allowing a question from Retired Brig. Gen. Keith Kerr, an openly gay man, and furthermore letting Kerr personally appear to speak to the candidates. However, Kerr is actually a Hillary Clinton supporter, a fact that will likely invite accusations of being a plant. On CNN this morning Kerr denied that he had coordinated his activities with the Clinton campaign, or that he's done any direct work with them other than lending his name as a supporter.

• The Republicans really let each other have it last night, questioning each others' conservative credentials on a wide range of issues. Perhaps the biggest issue of the night was illegal immigration.

• Mitt Romney hit Rudy Giuliani for running a "sanctuary city" for illegal aliens. "And the idea that they reported any illegal alien that committed a crime — how about the fact that the people who are here illegally have violated the law?" Romney said. "They didn't report everybody they found that was here illegally."

• Rudy shot right back at Romney, bringing up the matter of illegals having worked on Romney's own lawn in the past — or "sanctuary mansion" as Rudy called it — via a landscaping firm that Romney had hired. "It just happens you have a special immigration problem that nobody else up here has," Rudy said. "You were employing illegal immigrants. That is a pretty serious thing. They were under your nose."

• Mike Huckabee defended his past proposal to give college scholarships to the children of illegals, saying that "we're not going to punish a child because the parent committed a crime."

• In a very telling moment, Tom Tancredo took some joy from what he was hearing. "I have to tell you, so far, it's been wonderful," he said. "Because all I've heard is people trying to out-Tancredo Tancredo."

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On a conference call with conservative bloggers today, John McCain was asked about our stories reporting that Mitt Romney had nixed Muslims in his cabinet on a second occasion. His response: Maybe Mitt wouldn't allow a qualified Muslim to serve high in his administration, but he would.

"I’m proud of the Muslims who are currently serving in the United States armed forces," McCain said, "and my sense is that if they can serve in that manner, they can serve in any position of responsibility in America." McCain's comments were provided to us by his advisers.

McCain added: "I just think, appoint the most qualified individuals to positions of responsibility."

McCain's comments today built on his criticism of Romney yesterday: "I think his comment is indicative of how he might govern and I think it's absolutely wrong."

One interesting side note: Saying you won't appoint Muslims to your cabinet certainly isn't something that will hurt you in a GOP primary, so unsurprisingly, none of the other GOP candidates has had any criticism for Romney over this. Only McCain has been willing to go down this path.

Looks like the Dem debate set for December 10 in Los Angeles, to be moderated by Katie Couric, has been canceled due to the writer's guild strike:

Washington, DC - The DNC issued the following statement regarding the final DNC sanctioned debate:

"Due to the uncertainty created by the ongoing labor dispute between CBS and the Writers Guild of America, the DNC has canceled the December 10th debate in Los Angeles. There are no plans to re-schedule," said DNC Communications Director Karen Finney.

Wow, this really should put a dent in Rudy Giuliani's Mr. 9/11 image. Wayne Barrett, a biographer and vocal critic of Rudy, has a new article outlining Rudy's business relationship with Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifah al-Thani, a Qataran emir whose finances helped found Al-Jazeera — and who has been accused of sheltering none other than Khalid Sheikh Mohammed in the 1990's:

The contradictory and stunning reality is that Giuliani Partners, the consulting company that has made Giuliani rich, feasts at the Qatar trough, doing business with the ministry run by the very member of the royal family identified in news and government reports as having concealed KSM—the terrorist mastermind who wired funds from Qatar to his nephew Ramzi Yousef prior to the 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center, and who also sold the idea of a plane attack on the towers to Osama bin Laden—on his Qatar farm in the mid-1990s.

It'll be interesting to see if the national press picks up on this story. You can read the rest here.

I just got off the phone with another Nevada Republican who confirmed that Mansoor Ijaz's account of Mitt Romney saying he'd nix Muslims in his cabinet is accurate.

This is the first person I've spoken to who directly confirmed Ijaz's account of that particular event. The other two Nevada Republicans I spoke with yesterday confirmed that Romney had made very similar remarks at a different, earlier event.

"I can tell you that what was reported by Mansoor is accurate," this person said to me. The man, a real estate broker and volunteer in local Republican politics, declined to allow his name to be used.

Romney disputed the account in remarks to reporters yesterday, saying that he had said that he didn't need a Muslim in his cabinet to effectively fight Jihad, not that he'd said he was opposed to the idea of having one in his cabinet.

When I read Romney's remarks to this Republican, however, he said: "I don't recall Romney saying what you read to me," adding that "what Monsoor stated was an accurate representation."

At any rate, Romney's representation of what happened is at odds with mounting evidence that Ijaz's account is the accurate one.

It turns out there's only endorsement Mike Huckabee is really after. And it's not a a certain senator, or a Republican activist group, or even Chuck Norris himself — it's God, and that's what determines his public policy agenda.

The American Prospect reports that Huckabee appeared this week on the televangelism show Believers' Voice of Victory, and he declared proudly, "I had to come to the conclusion that I only had one client ... when I laid my head on the pillow, I'd say, 'Lord, are you pleased?' ... even if I get voted out of office, I'll never get voted out of heaven."

If this seems familiar, that's because it is — President Bush himself once told Bob Woodward the following about whether he consulted his father for advice: "You know he is the wrong father to appeal to in terms of strength. There is a higher father that I appeal to."

In the intense competition in South Carolina between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, as well as native son John Edwards, the big winner in the new Clemson University poll is ... undecided, with a whopping 49% support. As for the actual candidates, Hillary leads with 19%, in a statistical dead heat with Barack Obama's 17%, and John Edwards at 12%. The margin of error is ±4.62%. In the last Clemson poll in early September, Hillary had 26%, Obama 16%, and Edwards 10%.

Hillary has had a bigger lead in other recent South Carolina polls, with far less undecideds — possibly meaning that some of her support in those is soft, made up of people who are simply leaning her way. The state has come to be considered a must-win for Barack Obama, due to the fact that African-Americans are expected to make up about half of the Democratic electorate.

The primary field against Congressman Wayne Gilchrest (R-MD), who has attracted conservative ire for voting with the Democrats on Iraq, just got bigger. Wealthy state Senator E.J. Pipkin, who took 34% as the party's U.S. Senate nominee in 2004, has joined the field along with Gilchrest himself and state Senator Andy Harris.

Pipkin's candidacy might actually split the anti-Gilchrest vote, helping the incumbent. On the other hand, Pipkin has maintained a more moderate image like Gilchrest's, but to his right on the war — thus he might attract some of Gilchrest's own voters. Meanwhile, Gilchrest has his work cut out for him: Harris has racked up the support of all the other state senators in the district, except for Pipkin, and even has the support of former one-term Governor Robert Ehrlich.

Bill Clinton's surprising claim yesterday that he opposed the Iraq war "from the beginning" has ignited a kind of research war between the Hillary and Obama campaigns, with both sides digging deep into the public record to make their cases about what the former President said and thought about the war before it was waged.

The battle, which has been raging all morning, is yet another reminder of how even a few offhand syllables from Bill can suddenly and without warning flare up into a major campaign issue.

The Clinton campaign has produced reams of research designed to make the case that in many ways Bill did oppose the invasion before it was launched. Their primary argument is that Bill repeatedly said that he opposed going to war before the weapons inspectors had finished their jobs.

“As he said from the beginning and many times since, President Clinton disagreed with taking the country to war without allowing the weapons inspectors to finish their jobs," is how Clinton spokesperson Jay Carson is putting it. And indeed, Bill has said variations of this many times.

But Obama supporters are pointing to a piece -- first linked this A.M. by Matthew Yglesias -- in The Guardian that Bill penned just before the war started.

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Wow. We now have the first poll showing Mike Huckabee leading in Iowa. The new Rasmussen poll gives Huckabee 28%, Romney 25%, Giuliani 12% and Fred Thompson 11%.

Huckabee has been putting a huge focus on Iowa, pitching himself as the Christian right's alternative to the likes of Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani. And while this poll might just be an outlier — the other recent Iowa polls have had Romney leading, but by only narrow margins — this is definitely a sign that Huckabee has caught on. Now we just have to see if other polls will confirm it, and if Huckabee can build up his popularity in other states, too.

On the heels of polls showing Rudy dropping fast in New Hampshire and out of contention in Iowa, a a new poll finds him sinking fast in a third key state: South Carolina. The Clemson University poll finds Mitt Romney now taking the lead with 17%, followed by Fred Thompson at 15%, Mike Huckabee with 13%, John McCain at 11% — and Rudy at only 9%.

It's definitely not a good result for Rudy, especially in light of recent polls showing him in third in both Iowa and New Hampshire. And it's great news for Romney, who apparently now leads in all three of the key early contests.

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The Romney campaign has just gone negative against his rivals in a new pro-life mailer the campaign has now dropped in South Carolina. One interesting tidbit: It says that Romney is "the only major Presidential candidate who supports the Republican Party's pro-life platform: A Constitutional amendment banning abortion nationwide."

This is interesting, because it's an effort to pretend that Mike Huckabee, who also supports such a ban, and is emerging as a serious conservative challenger to Romney, doesn't exist.

The mailer is similar to another Romney piece posted yesterday by Jonathan Martin in which he says he's the only "leading" Republican candidate supporting a Constitutional ban on gay marriage -- a stance that Huckabee also holds.

Mike Huckabee's surge in Iowa has come about not so much from Romney slipping in the polls, but from some voters finding their conservative alternative — and there could be another side to it, as well. The New York Times reports that some Republicans are being drawn to the Baptist minister in order to oppose the Mormon candidate.

"Mormons spend two years of their lives as missionaries, preaching an anti-Christian doctrine," said Huckabee volunteer Barbara Heki. "I don't want someone out there, if I can help it, who's going to be acting on an anti-Christian faith as the basis of their decision-making."

In the wake of Senate Minority Whip Trent Lott's (R-MS) sudden resignation announcement, the Senate Republican Conference has scheduled their leadership elections for December 6.

Incumbent conference chairman Jon Kyl (AZ) is expected to win the whip race unopposed, while the conference chair race will be contested by Kay Bailey Hutchison (TX), Richard Burr (NC), and Lamar Alexander (TN).

One prominent Mitt Romney supporter says the candidate should give a "JFK Speech" dispelling any ideas that the candidate would be a tool of the Church of Latter-Day Saints. Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT), said there is a "sad misunderstanding" about the church, and Romney will need to correct it.

"I have yet to have anyone in the hierarchy of the Mormon Church say, 'You have to do this and you have to do that,'" said Hatch.

The Virginia GOP has found an interesting way to discourage non-Republicans from voting in their presidential primary. Voters will be required to sign an oath, pledging to support the party's nominee for president.

Sen. Harry Byrd Jr. (D-VA) famously bolted from the Democrats and became an independent in the 1970s due to such a loyalty oath being imposed on candidates, but this goes an extra step by putting the the oath to voters. Oddly enough, the state Board of Elections has approved the request, even though it would be impossible to enforce the contract not only practically, but probably in legal terms, too — as contracts requiring a party to vote a certain way in an election are illegal.

Mike Huckabee, who has struggled to build a campaign organization outside of Iowa, just picked up a key endorsement that might help him in Florida, that of state Senate Majority Leader Daniel Webster.

"The governor's proved himself to be a leader. Not just someone who sat there and pushed against what was happening but yet became the leader of a state that had a lot of problems," Webster said — possibly a shot against Mitt Romney's failure to stop gay marriage in Massachusetts. "And he did it within an environment that was somewhat hostile not only to his principles but also his party."

Okay, some unexpected new evidence has emerged that corroborates our account from earlier today that Mitt Romney said on an earlier occasion that he is opposed to having Muslims in his cabinet.

As you know, Romney is in a bit of a spot because of an account in the Christian Science Monitor by an Islamic businessman who claims Romney said that he "cannot see that a cabinet position would be justified" for a Muslim. Today Romney denied this version of events, saying that he had actually been asked whether he thought he needed a Muslim in his Cabinet to effectively counter Jihad, not whether he opposed the idea of having a Muslim in his Cabinet.

But as we reported earlier today, we located two GOPers in Nevada who say that Romney had in fact been asked a similar question and given a similar answer at another event three months ago. George Harris, a state GOP official, told us that he asked Romney at a private fundraiser if he would have any Muslims in his Cabinet. According to Harris, Romney's reply was "most likely not."

We've now discovered that there's a contemporaneous account of this episode in something called Liberty Watch Magazine, which Harris publishes. In the September 2007 issue is this account by Editor Mike Zigler:

...when Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney recently addressed a group of a prominent local conservatives at a Las Vegas fundraiser, George lobbed the first question: “If you are elected President,” he asked, “will you include any Muslim members in your cabinet?”

In the seconds before former Massachusetts Governor Romney responded, you could have heard a pin drop.

His (admittedly, very smooth) answer in a nutshell? “Not likely.”

The rest of the account describes the surprise that local GOPers felt upon hearing that Mitt appeared so hostile to this idea. And again, this account is contemporaneous -- it was laid out well before this ever became controversial.

Earlier today, Hillary Clinton's campaign rolled out an interesting endorsement in South Carolina, that of state Rep. Harold Mitchell. What makes it interesting is that Mitchell had previously endorsed Barack Obama, but now chalks that up to misplaced idealism.

"We've got to get away from these emotional feelings," Mitchell told CBS News. "If you put that aside and look at the candidates ... it's a no-brainer."

Late Update: D'oh! Mitchell actually announced his switch to Hillary a month ago. But that new quote about "emotional feelings" is sure eye-catching.

Well, this line from Bill Clinton probably won't do a lot to help Hillary on the Iraq issue. Speaking to an Iowa crowd today, the former president criticized the Bush Administration for continuing to cut taxes even as they pursued wars — and went on to say that he opposed the Iraq War from the start.

"Even though I approved of Afghanistan and opposed Iraq — from the beginning — I still resent that I was not asked or given the opportunity to support those Soldiers," Bill told the crowd.

Remember folks, his wife the candidate voted for the war in 2002, and has been working hard ever since to assuage the doubts of Democratic activists. Furthermore, Bill voiced his support for it at the time.

The audio, provided to us by a rival campaign, is available after the jump.

Late Update: The Hillary campaign makes the relevant point that Bill repeatedly said that we shouldn't invade Iraq without letting the weapons inspectors finish their job. More on what Bill said at the time here.

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John Edwards has responded to TPM's report that the Bush Administration is planning to have permanent American military bases in Iraq:

"President Bush's announcement of new 'principles' for an agreement with the Maliki government in Iraq is further proof that despite talking about a withdrawal, Bush is planning to pursue a 'Korea-style' American occupation of Iraq for 10 years or more. Our goal in Iraq should be to get the Sunni and Shia to come to their own political solution with a diplomatic offensive, not keep propping them up with American combat troops that are already stretched too thin. We need an immediate withdrawal of 40-50,000 troops and a complete withdrawal within 9-10 months. By failing to stand up to George Bush and by proposing Iraq plans that would leave combat troops to fight missions based in Iraq, the politicians in Washington are enabling George Bush to sustain the occupation of Iraq."

Edwards was previously on the record opposing permanent bases.

Hillary Clinton reportedly has an interesting idea for who would be a good representative of America: Colin Powell. According to Fox News, Hillary told a South Carolina audience that if elected she would ask people of both parties to go to bat before the world for a new American foreign policy.

"I won't even wait until I'm inaugurated, but as soon as I'm elected I'm going to be asking distinguished Americans of both parties — people like Colin Powell, for example, and others — who can represent our country well," Hillary said.

A spokeswoman for Powell told the New York Times that her boss has not been in touch with Hillary, and has no further comment. But this does invite an interesting question: Does Hillary really think Powell is still a credible, distinguished representative of America after his speech at the U.N. laying out all the supposed evidence for Iraqi WMD?

Presidential canidate Mitt Romney has discounted appointing Muslims to his cabinet on more than just the one occasion reported in a CSM op-ed yesterday.

TPM Election Central has learned that at a private fundraising lunchleon in Los Vegas three months ago, Romney said a second time he would probably not appoint a Muslim to his cabinet -- and on this occasion, he made other comments that one witness described as "racist."

The witness, Irma Aguirre, a former finance director of the Nevada Republican Party, paraphrased Romney as saying: "They're radical. There's no talking to them. There's no negotiating with them."

A second witness, a self-described local registered Republican named George Harris, confirmed her account.

The new accounts provided by the witnesses lend credence to the now-notorious account of a more recent private Romney event that appeared in the Christian Science Monitor yesterday that already caused an uproar. In that account, a Muslim businessman, Mansour Ijaz, claimed that Romney had said that based on the "numbers of American Muslims" in the country, "I cannot see that a cabinet position would be justified" for a muslim.

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A new CNN poll of Florida gives a radically different result from another poll released earlier today, which showed Mike Huckabee surging into second place. The CNN numbers: Giuliani 38%, Romney 17%, McCain 11%, Thompson 11%, and Huckabee 9%. The margin of error is ±5.5%.

The other poll, from GOP firm Insider Advantage, had Rudy at 26% and Huckabee with 17%. It had a ±3.8% margin of error. Obviously, at least one of these polls is wrong.

Hillary Clinton has now voiced her opposition to having permanent military bases in Iraq. In a letter to the White House that we've obtained, Hillary lays out her strong disapproval of the idea, and calls upon the Bush Administration to address the issue and declare that they won't do it.

"Given the express will of Congress and the American people to oppose permanent U.S. military bases in Iraq, the failure to include express language addressing this issue in the Declaration of Principles with the Iraqi government is deeply troubling," Clinton wrote in the letter. "To be clear, attempts to establish permanent bases in Iraq would damage U.S. interests in Iraq and the broader region, and I will continue to strongly oppose such efforts."

The full letter is available after the jump.

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Fred Thompson unveiled a pair of new TV ads today that highlight what he portrays as his corruption-fighting past as a federal prosecutor. Both ads seek to shape Thompson's image as one of a straight-shooting conservative who is tough on corruption.

The first ad, entitled "Service", makes note of Thompson's role in "helping to expose the truth during Watergate" — interesting, considering he's previously admitted to leaking info about the investigation to the Nixon White House — and sending former Gov. Ray Blanton (D-TN) to prison:

The second ad, entitled "Marie", features a testimonial from Marie Ragghianti, a former head of the Tennessee Board of Pardons and Paroles who was intimidated and fired after she refused to release prisoners who had bribed aides of Gov. Blanton:

"Fred is a man of genuine integrity," Ragghianti says.

The race to succeed Trent Lott as Senate GOP Whip is over — but another leadership race could get bloody as a result. Lamar Alexander, who lost to Lott by one vote just over a year ago, announced that he is instead running for conference chairman. That position is being vacated by Jon Kyl of Arizona, who now seems to be running unopposed for the whip slot.

As for the conference chair spot, there were already two candidates running for it — Richard Burr of North Carolina and Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas — meaning they'll now have three candidates who all have their own flaws. Hutchison has said she won't run again in 2012, and might even run for governor of Texas in 2010, potentially causing a short tenure and another leadership race in a few years. Burr's approval ratings are very poor, opening him up to a potential challenge in 2010. And Alexander himself has already lost a leadership race on his own.

Mike McWherter, a Democrat who had planned to challenge Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN) next year, is expected to drop his Senate bid. Former state Democratic Party Chair Bob Tuke and Nashville insurance lawyer Kevin Doherty, both potential candidates for the seat themselves, say that they received calls from McWherter to inform them of his decision to pull out of the race.

This isn't good news for Democrats, who had hoped that McWherter, a wealthy businessman and the son of a popular former Governor, could use his deep pockets to make Alexander sweat. However, the race was always seen as a long shot.

At a press availability today, Mitt Romney personally denied the report in the Christian Science Monitor saying that he'd privately told an Islamic businessman that he didn't see how putting a Muslim in his cabinet could be "justified" given demographic realities.

Here's the exchange, as transcribed by the Romney campaign:

REPORTER: Governor, there is a report today that a businessman says that a close fundraiser in Vegas a couple weeks ago, he asked you a question about having an Islamic person in your cabinet and you said that based on the population of Muslims in the United States that you don't think it would be justified?

GOVERNOR MITT ROMNEY: No. His question was did I need to have a Muslim in my Cabinet to be able to confront radical Jihad and would it be important to have a Muslim in my Cabinet and I said, 'No, I don't think that you have to have a Muslim in the Cabinet to be able to take on radical Jihad anymore than during the Second World War we needed to have a Japanese-American to understand the threat that was coming from Japan or something of that nature.' I just rejected that argument number one, and then number two, I point out that people who would be part of my Cabinet is something that I really haven't given a lot of thought to at this point, but I don't have boxes that I check off as to their ethnicity. It's not that I have to have a certain number of each different ethnic group; instead I would choose people based upon their merits and their capabilities.

So Romney's argument here is that he didn't say he wouldn't put a Muslim in the cabinet -- he just said that you don't need one in the cabinet to effectively counter jihad.

We have more coming on this in a bit.

It looks like Mike Huckabee is starting to catch on with a lot of conservative voters. A new poll from Republican firm Insider Advantage shows Huckabee now taking a strong second against Rudy Giuliani Florida. As for the other Southern conservative in the race, Fred Thompson, it's not going so well.

The numbers: Giuliani 26%, Huckabee 17%, McCain 13%, Romney 12%, Thompson 9%. This represents an 11-point surge for Huckabee since Insider Advantage's last Florida poll in early October — and a ten-point plummet for Thompson.

Late Update: A CNN poll offers a very different take.

On the heels of Obama's earlier statement on the question of whether he opposes permanent bases in Iraq, the Obama campaign has sent us another statement making it 100 percent clear that he is completely opposed to such bases in any form:

"Barack Obama is against permanent bases in Iraq. He will not seek them. He will not build them. We will not have permanent bases in Iraq if Barack Obama is President."

As we noted here yesterday, we've been seeking responses to our story over at TPMmuckraker from yesterday saying that the White House and the Maliki government have reached agreement on guidelines for what in effect will be permanent bases in Iraq. Yesterday Chris Dodd responded to the story, coming out firmly against such bases.

Now the Obama campaign has responded, too. Here's the statement the campaign sent over:

"Barack Obama will make it clear from his first day in office to the American people, the people of Iraq, and to the world that the United States will not seek permanent bases in Iraq."

According to Spencer Ackerman, TPM's resident expert on such matters, this stops short of firm opposition to future permanent bases. That's because the vow not to "seek" permanent bases doesn't foreclose the possibility of accepting them should the Iraqi government offer them. Indeed, in 2005 the Bush administration's own Ambassador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad, also used a similar formulation, saying that the administration does not "seek" such bases.

So for now it appears that the Obama campaign has left themselves some wiggle room on this question.

Late Update: The Obama camp has sent us another statement making his opposition to permanent bases of any kind crystal clear.

Jesse Jackson, an Obama supporter, had this to say about the Dem candidates in an Op ed piece in the Chicago Sun-Times today:

...the Democratic candidates -- with the exception of John Edwards, who opened his campaign in New Orleans' Ninth Ward and has made addressing poverty central to his campaign -- have virtually ignored the plight of African Americans in this country. The catastrophic crisis that engulfs the African-American community goes without mention. No urban agenda is given priority. When thousands of African Americans marched in protest in Jena, La., not one candidate showed up.

As Ben Smith notes, oddly enough Jackson makes no mention of Obama, the candidate he's backing in his Op ed. So his meaning seems pretty clear here.

Yet another poll has confirmed recent trends in Iowa: Mike Huckabee is right at Mitt Romney's heels, and Barack Obama is giving Hillary Clinton a tough time himself. Remember, if either Romney or Hillary manage to lose in Iowa, then there could be some serious fallout from it in all the primaries afterward.

The poll from GOP firm Strategic Vision has Romney at 26%, with Huckabee right behind at 24%, within the margin of error. Rudy Giuliani is in third with 14%, then Fred Thompson at 10% and John McCain with 7%. Among Democrats, Hillary and Obama are tied at 29% each, with John Edwards lagging behind at 23%.

So who would win a popularity contest in Iowa: Former Governor Tom Vilsack, or Oprah Winfrey? Vilsack, a Hillary Clinton supporter, brushed off the idea that Oprah's upcoming campaign tour for Barack Obama would make any difference. Vilsack's logic was that not many women in Iowa actually watch her show, as they're too busy working.

As it turns out, though, a whole lot of Iowans watch Oprah Winfrey. According to the Des Moines Register, Oprah's ratings in Iowa are among her highest nationwide. And furthermore, does Vilsack want to be implying that stay-at-home moms aren't working?

Rudy Giuliani is leaving no ambiguity about his feelings on Iraq. In an interview with the New Hampshire Union Leader, Rudy said not only that he "never had any doubt" that he would have carried out the 2003 invasion if he had been president, but he is now "even more certain" that it was the right thing for America's security.

Rudy then kicked it up yet another notch: "I actually believe that Democrats are going to agree with me on that by the time we get to the general election."

A Dem operative forwards us a new mailer the Hillary campaign has dropped in Iowa called "Voices of Veterans." It features local vets praising her efforts on their behalf and claiming, in the words of one, that she has the "experience to bring our troops home safely." Take a look:

Former Speaker Dennis Hastert's (R-IL) is a member of Congress no more. Hastert sent his letter of resignation yesterday, officially taking effect late last night.

The resignation was timed so that the special primary will take place on February 5, coinciding with the presidential primary — and more importantly, so that the general election couldn't take place on February 5, which would have given an edge to Democrats in light of the candidacy of favorite son Barack Obama.

Mitt Romney is clearly making a push in John McCain's own back yard. In Arizona, his most prominent endorser in the state will personally file Romney's ballot paperwork for him. Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, known for housing prisoners in tents and taking a hard line against illegal immigration, will submit the papers today.

Arpaio's popularity has come in large part from his law-and-order appeal, and it was definitely a coup for Romney to win his support early in the cycle. And with illegal immigration becoming a prominent wedge issue for Republicans, Romney and the rest of the Republican field might just be able to drag McCain down in his own home state.

Bill Richardson has a novel idea for how he would stay in touch with average Americans as president: He would not only meet with regular people, he would even schedule sleepovers in their homes. "I would stay in touch," he told an Iowa crowd. "I would be a grass-roots president."

It's an interesting idea, and perhaps the populist touch of the proposal might win a few votes in Iowa. On the other hand, if President Richardson were to pursue it, you can bet the Secret Service would do everything they could to persuade him otherwise.

Yet another state is joining the February 5 national primary. Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick (D) signed a bill yesterday to move the state's primary up from March 4 — which was the Super Tuesday date in the last cycle.

It's not clear, however, whether moving the primary up will actually make the state any more relevant. As the Washington Post points out, Democrats might focus their energies on larger states that day, like California, while Republicans might just concede the state to Mitt Romney, who served as governor and has been running a lot of ads in that media market in order to reach New Hampshire.

John McCain has staked his candidacy in large part on his support for the Iraq War, and he's not shy when it comes to talking about the subject — or using it to hit the Democrats. Having returned from his Thanksgiving trip to Iraq, McCain told a South Carolina audience that America has already succeeded with the surge, and added that the Dems are refusing to admit it.

"Today it is clear we have succeeded with this new strategy," said McCain. "The Democrats refuse to acknowledge that, they refuse to acknowledge the progress. They are willfully ignoring the facts on the ground in my view."

Mitt Romney clearly isn't ignoring the threat of Mike Huckabee. In fact, he's going right after Huckabee's central argument — that he, not Romney, is the true Reagan conservative.

Appearing Monday on CNN, Romney said: "I'll tell you, Ronald Reagan would have never raised taxes like Mike Huckabee did, Ronald Reagan would have never said let's give tuition breaks to illegals like Mike Huckabee did, Ronald Reagan would have never stood by and pushed for a budget that more than doubled during his term as president. Mike Huckabee as a matter of fact has a very different record than Ronald Reagan, and I'm pretty proud that my record stands up quite well."

In the wake of Trent Lott's announcement that he's resigning from the Senate, several news accounts have reported that Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour, a Republican, will immediately appoint a replacement -- and Barbour further announced today that a special election will be held to fill the seat on election day in November of 2008.

This would be a big boon to Republican efforts to hold Lott's seat. That's because it would allow whoever the appointee is the next 11 months to build up a record, raise money, and amass the advantages of incumbency in advance of the special contest.

But what does election law really hold?

National Dems who are scrutinizing the relevant statute say that they think that in fact it stipulates that the election is to be held within 90 days of the date of Lott's resignation, which he hasn't announced yet.

If true, that would effectively minimize the GOP advantage. Because of this -- and because an earlier special election might have a lower turnout -- it would give Dems a shot at winning that special contest.

And guess what -- it looks as if the Mississippi Secretary of State has confirmed that the special election is in fact supposed to happen 90 days after Lott's resignation date -- and not in 2008, as Barbour is claiming.

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Over at TPMmuckraker.com, Spencer Ackerman has a big story: The White House today released its guidelines for what will effectively be permanent U.S. bases in Iraq.

Naturally, the question of whether we should have such bases is a good one to pose to the Presidential candidates. So we've begun to ask them for a response.

Now Chris Dodd has become the first Presidential candidate to respond to our story. Dodd spokesman Hari Sevugan sends us a statement with the following key quote:

"Senator Dodd is fearful that the [White House's] lack of clarity on the long-term presence will be used as a justification by this Administration for a permanent military presence in Iraq, at precisely the time when we should be declaring the opposite. In a Dodd Adminsitration, there will be no permanent bases in Iraq."

That's pretty clear.

We'll bring you other candidates' responses as we get them. The Dodd camp's full statement after the jump.

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Mitt Romney has a new TV ad in Iowa and New Hampshire, promoting the candidate's credentials on illegal immigration — plus using a whole bunch of statistics about the threat in a way that would make Lou Dobbs proud:

Romney has been making gains on Rudy Giuliani over the immigration issue, attacking Rudy for having run a "sanctuary city" during his tenure as mayor.

"From day one, Mitt Romney will do what he does best," the announcer says. "Take charge; Get results; No excuses."

Earlier today the Hillary campaign opened up another front in the battle with Barack Obama, accusing him of breaking FEC law over a report in The Washington Post that said that Obama's PAC had been spreading donations around to supporters in the early primary states.

Now Obama spokesman Bill Burton has responded with this:

Whatever happened to the confident frontrunner who said she wouldn’t attack other Democrats just two weeks ago? The latest personal attack from Hillary Clinton is a completely false attempt to misrepresent Barack Obama’s full disclosure of his campaign finances. Senator Obama's commitment to disclosure is one that Hillary Clinton does not share, and until Senator Clinton is willing to make this commitment -- by disclosing her White House records, the list of donors to her husband’s presidential library, how much her bundlers raise, and releasing her personal tax returns to the public -- she’s not really in a position to point fingers at others.

The "whatever happened to" opening line is a play on the Hillary camp's frequent line about Obama: "Whatever happened to the politics of hope?" Also note the Obama campaign's suggestion that Hillary's no longer the frontrunner -- though she's still leading in national polls, at least one Iowa poll shows Obama with a slight edge in Iowa -- and the implication that Camp Hillary is in a panic about it.

Take a look at this highlight reel of Trent Lott's press conference announcing his retirement today, courtesy of TPM editor Ben Craw:

Doesn't this seem kind of no-frills and abrupt for such an announcement? No family there, no supporters, etc. Doesn't this thing seem like it was kind of hasty given how long his career was, how recently he grabbed the whip position, and how major a Senate fixture he was? Odd.

Could Democrats wage a competitive Senate campaign in Mississippi? Former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D) says that he is "seriously considering running" for the open seat of retiring Sen. Trent Lott (R).

While former state Attorney General Mike Moore is most often mentioned as the preferred choice of Democratic strategists for the race, Musgrove is seen as one of the few other candidates who could be competitive in this deeply red state.

The Clinton campaign is now challenging Barack Obama's ethics and overall consistency on campaign finance reform — not to mention whether he's actually following the law — in light of a new Washington Post report that Obama's previously dormant leadership PAC has resumed making donations to Democratic candidates and committees in the early primary states.

"It is our understanding that a candidate's campaign is barred from using the candidate's leadership PAC to benefit his or her campaign which is why we shut down HillPAC when Senator Clinton announced her run for the White House," reads a Clinton campaign press release. "On the campaign trail, Senator Obama is outspoken about his desire to reform the campaign finance system so it was surprising to learn that he has been using his PAC in a manner that appears to be inconsistent with the prevailing election laws."

The full statement is available after the jump.

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The upcoming CNN/YouTube Republican debate has received a submission from a certain Democratic voter. None other than presidential candidate Chris Dodd is pitching a question about whether the GOP candidates think Americans have to give up their Constitutional rights in order to be safe:

A Facebook group has started up, petitioning CNN to accept this questions and other cross-candidate ones like it.

Barack Obama ratchets up his criticism of Hillary in a new interview, suggesting that having been First Lady does not constitute Presidential experience:

"There is no doubt that Bill Clinton had faith in her and consulted with her on issues, in the same way that I would consult with Michelle, if there were issues," the Illinois senator told "Nightline" co-anchor Terry Moran.

"On the other hand, I don't think Michelle would claim that she is the best qualified person to be a U.S. senator by virtue of me talking to her on occasion about the work I've done," he said.

Indiana hasn't voted Democratic for president since the 1964 Lyndon Johnson landslide, but a new poll from Selzer & Co. finds that the state could easily go Dem next year — that is, if centrist Senator Evan Bayh is the candidate for vice president.

The poll finds a Generic Dem/Bayh ticket leading a Generic Republican by a 47%-33% margin. Without Bayh, a generic Democrat loses ten points of support — but the Republicans gain practically nothing, for a 37%-32% Dem margin. A key reason for Democratic hopes: President Bush, who won 59% of the vote here in 2004, is at only 28% approval.

Rep. Julia Carson (D-IN) will not seek re-election in 2008, according to her chief of staff. The news comes two days after Carson disclosed that she has terminal lung cancer.

This isn't necessarily good news for the GOP, who had been eager to challenge the ailing incumbent next year. Carson's Indianapolis-based district is reliably Democratic in presidential cycles and would be a tough target for a Republican to capture.

Here's today's key story out of the Iowa local press: The Des Moines Register reports that John Edwards makes a point of not talking about his time as John Kerry's 2004 running mate, or any lessons he might have learned from it. Meanwhile, people around him — including his Iowa co-chairman as well as his own father — openly say he would have won if he'd been the 2004 presidential nominee.

"I've made it a practice not to go back and analyze the campaign," Edwards told the paper. "I don't think there's anything to be gained from it. I don't. I'm sure you can get lots of other people to do it."

Will 2008 be another big year for the Democrats? According to a new analysis by CQ Politics, the prospect of a Democratic sweep of Congress next year is becoming an "inescapable 'morning line' assumption" on both sides of the aisle in Washington.

"Every traditional indicator of election forecasting — from public opinion polls and issue resonance to candidate recruitment and the 'over/under' balance of seats in play — suggests that congressional Democrats have just as much going for them in 2008 as they had in 2006, if not more," says CQ.

Late Update: For an in-depth look at the state of play, check out CQ's updated House, Senate and Gubernatorial race ratings.

Here's today's key story out of the New Hampshire local press: The New Hampshire Union Leader, a very conservative paper, published an editorial yesterday praising Barack Obama's health care plan, calling it the most realistic option on the Democratic side: "He resists the temptation to promise the impossible — provide universal coverage and control costs — and for that he should be commended."

On the one hand, being commended by the state's largest paper could help Obama get some positive media attention and win over some independent voters. On the other hand, getting plaudits from the Union Leader might have the potential to backfire among core Democratic voters, given its Republican editorial stances.

Uh, oh -- looks like Rudy Giuliani is suddenly aware that the GOP nomination isn't his for the taking. In the wake of polls showing him sinking in New Hampshire, he's just launched an aggressive attack on someone other than Hillary, taking his toughest shots yet at the New Hampshire and Iowa frontrunner, Mitt Romney.

WINDHAM, N.H. — In a big strategic shift, Rudy Giuliani hammered Mitt Romney’s record Sunday on three fronts, saying it was time to “take the mask off and take a look at what kind of governor was he.”

Using some of the toughest language of his campaign, Giuliani, in an interview with Politico, slammed Romney on health care, crime and taxes. At the same time he portrayed the one-time moderate as a hypocrite on a host of social issues who lives “in a glass house.” It was easily the most sweeping attack Giuliani has delivered against Romney in this campaign.

There is ample evidence that the Rudy camp is upending its strategy in the wake of news that Romney is solidifying his lead in the early primary states.

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Here's today's key story out of the South Carolina local press: The Spartanburg Herald-Journal reports that Hillary Clinton will be visiting Spartanburg tomorrow, where she'll announce a big endorsement — but the Hillary campaign aren't saying just who the new endorser is.

Neither of South Carolina's two Democratic Congressmen represent Spartanburg, so it's probably not one of them. But the campaign must have viewed it as an important person if Hillary is showing up for the event, in light of how hard she and Barack Obama have been competing for votes in the first Southern primary.

So with Senate Minority Whip Trent Lott (R-MS) resigning, what's the overall state of play for his seat? The bottom line is that a Republican will immediately replace Lott, and the GOP is still favored to hold on to the seat — but Democrats might just have an opening if they can get a good candidate, and they sure have more money to throw around than the GOP does.

Mississippi's Republican Governor Haley Barbour will make an appointment to the seat, and the appointee will stay until a special election in November 2008, coinciding with the presidential race. That alone will favor the GOP, as President Bush won 60% of the vote in Mississippi in 2004, and 57% of the vote in 2000. Thus any potential Democratic nominee would need a lot of ticket-splitting in order have a chance.

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The Edwards campaign hasn't sent these out yet, but we have 'em, so take a look: Two new ads set to hit the airwaves in Iowa and South Carolina today. The South Carolina one is a biographical spot, emphasizing his past as the son of a millworker:

...and the Iowa one, less about biography than about lofty promises of future change, focusses on what Edwards calls the "great moral test of our generation," i.e., reforming the corrupt D.C. system:

So why is Trent Lott resigning now? MSNBC says it's all about the money:

While the exactly reason Lott is stepping down before he finishes his term is unknown, the general speculation is that a quick departure immunizes Lott against tougher restrictions in a new lobbying law that takes effect at the end of the year. That law would require Senators to wait two-years before entering the lucrative world of lobbying Congress.

So by stepping down now he can get into the lobbying racket that much quicker, rather than having to wait a whole two years before selling his governmental connections to the highest bidders. Makes sense to us.

Mike Huckabee's new TV ad, set to begin airing today in Iowa, lacks a crucial element from his last one — namely Chuck Norris — but it does have a heavy focus on his conservative stances and Christian faith, even going so far as to call him a "Christian Leader" in the text:

"Faith doesn't just influence me, it really defines me," Huckabee says. "I don't have to wake up everyday wondering, 'What do I need to believe?'" It's a pitch that could go a long way in winning some more of the evangelical voters that Huckabee will need in order to win Iowa.

Hillary Clinton might have Bill campaigning for her, but the Barack Obama campaign is set to bring out some serious firepower of their own. Oprah Winfrey will be kicking off a three-state tour for her candidate in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, beginning December 8 in Des Moines and Cedar Rapids, Iowa.

This is the first time that Winfrey has taken to the campaign trail, and really the first cycle in which she's gotten involved at all for a candidate. Winfrey already hosted a big-money fundraiser for Obama earlier this year, and now the question is whether her presence on the campaign trail can sway any women voters away from Hillary and towards Obama.

John McCain's new ad in New Hampshire clears up an important question — he loves America. And not only that, he loves America enough to make people angry sometimes. The ad also shows McCain continuing to push the idea that he opposed Donald Rumsfeld's war policies the whole time:

The fact that this is a 60-second ad running in New Hampshire, as opposed to Iowa, would seem to corroborate reports that the McCain campaign is thinking of abandoning Iowa.

Rep. Julia Carson (D-IN) announced over the weekend that she has terminal lung cancer. The cancer was discovered over the Summer.

Carson was first elected to Congress in 1996. She had been suffering numerous health problems recently, causing her to take a leave of absence from Congress in September in order to treat a leg infection.

Another Congressional Republican — this time a very high-ranking one — is heading for the exits. Senate Minority Whip Trent Lott (R-MS) will announce his resignation today, the Associated Press reports, taking effect before the end of the year.

A source told the AP that there is nothing wrong with Lott's health, but that he is instead leaving to pursue "other opportunities." The obvious possibility would be a job as a lobbyist, but we'll see what Lott himself has to say.

Mike Huckabee said at a South Carolina campaign stop this weekend that if necessary he would launch attacks inside the Pakistani border in order to fight terrorists — comments quite similar to Barack Obama's speech over the Summer, which earned Obama the condemnation of many on the right.

"We need to make sure we are clear that if we have an actionable target in Pakistan, that we will take action on that target because if that helps save and preserve American people, that's the foremost thing we need to be worried about," Huckabee said.

This is a first: A Republican has now complained that Fox News is biased. During his appearance today on Fox News Sunday, Fred Thompson complained that the Fox network has been habitually putting down his candidacy.

Thompson told Chris Wallace, "for you to highlight nothing but the negatives in terms of the polls and then put on your own guys who have been predicting for four months, really, that I couldn't do it, kind of skew things a little bit. There's a lot of other opinion out there."

A new SurveyUSA poll of New Mexico shows Hillary Clinton to be a more stronger general election candidate than Barack Obama in this swing state:

Clinton (D) 48%, Giuliani (R) 44%
Clinton (D) 52%, Romney (R) 40%
Clinton (D) 53%, Huckabee (R) 39%
McCain (R) 48%, Clinton (D) 45%
Giuliani (R) 49%, Obama (D) 41%
Obama (D) 49%, Romney (R) 41%
Obama (D) 50%, Huckabee (R) 38%
McCain (R) 50%, Obama (D) 40%

New Mexico and Iowa were the only two states to switch from Al Gore in 2000 over to President Bush in 2004. Interestingly enough, another SurveyUSA poll has shown Obama to be the stronger Democrat in Iowa.

During an Iowa campaign stop this weekend, Barack Obama said he would be open to the legalization and regulation of marijuana for medical purposes.

"My attitude is if the science and the doctors suggest that the best palliative care and the way to relieve pain and suffering is medical marijuana then that's something I'm open to because there's no difference between that and morphine when it comes to just giving people relief from pain," said Obama. "But I want to do it under strict guidelines. I want it prescribed in the same way that other painkillers or palliative drug."

Fred Thompson announced his tax plan this morning on Fox News Sunday, consisting of proposals to make the Bush tax cuts permanent, eliminate the Alternative Minimum Tax, cut the corporate tax rate, end
the estate tax, and other proposals including giving people the choice of filing under the present system or under a flatter, simpler system with no deductions.

Interestingly, Thompson used a new term for the estate tax during his TV appearance, beyond the current Republican term "death tax," and instead called it the "death penalty." It's unclear whether this nomenclature will catch on — after all, the phrase is already popular with most conservatives.