The new Hillary Clinton ad in Iowa is both positive, featuring a man talking about how Hillary helped to save his son's life — and negative, with the man condemning any other candidate who might say you can't trust her:

Barack Obama is already hitting back at a report by Robert Novak that the Hillary Clinton campaign is spreading word that they have some sort of unspecified dirt against the Illinois Senator.

"She of all people, having complained so often about 'the politics of personal destruction,' should move quickly to either stand by or renounce these tactics," Obama said in a press release. "I am prepared to stand up to that kind of politics, whether it's deployed by candidates in our party, in the other party or by any third party.

Full Obama statement after the jump.

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History might be about to repeat itself for the McCain campaign. Robert Novak reports that McCain is going to consider pulling out of the Iowa caucus and focusing his attention on New Hampshire, as he did in 2000.

Novak says McCain would do so in order to lessen the embarrassment of fifth place showing behind Romney, Huckabee, Giuliani and Thompson. McCain also placed fifth in Iowa in 2000, when he did not contest the state, coming in behind Bush, Forbes, Keyes and Bauer.

A Michigan state appeals court has upheld a lower ruling that struck down the state's January 15 primary on technical grounds, potentially canceling the rogue primary. The office of Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox said no decision has been made on whether to appeal to the state Supreme Court.

If the law remains invalidated, the state Republicans will select their delegates at the Jan. 25-26 state party convention, while Democrats are tentatively planning to hold a February 9 caucus.

Lou Dobbs has moved to counter the speculation — in many ways of his own making — that he is planning to run for president as an independent. "I don't know where this is coming from," he told the New York Times. "I have no interest in running, and I’ve said that throughout."

The rumors began after Dobbs recently wrote that there was "a strong likelihood that an independent populist candidate will emerge in the next several months, whether from an independent movement or from within the party structures."

A new EPIC-MRA poll shows that Hillary Clinton has increased her lead over Barack Obama in Michigan, which is expected to hold its rogue primary on January 15, pending current litigation.

Clinton leads Obama 49%-18%, up from 40%-21% in a poll released September 1. John Edwards is at 15%, meaning that both Obama and Edwards would need to do well in Iowa and New Hampshire if they want a good result here. On the Republican side, it's a statistical dead heat between Rudy Giuliani at 28% and Mitt Romney with 25%, followed by Fred Thompson at 13% and John McCain at 12%.

The national GOP has stripped Michigan of half its delegates, and the Dems have taken away all the delegates, but a popular win here could still be crucial in generating momentum.

Late Update: As has been pointed out, only Hillary and Chris Dodd will appear on the Democratic ballot — so this primary probably won't count for much on the Dem side.

Tom Tancredo has a new guest column in the Denver Post, defending his literally explosive ad after the paper had condemned it.

"If my advertisement is 'fear-mongering,' then Mothers Against Drunk Driving should apologize for suggesting that drunk driving kills innocent people. So do open borders," Tancredo writes. "The narrative text of my Iowa advertisement distinguishes between the 20 million illegal immigrants who come here 'to take our jobs' and those who come full of hate to conduct acts of terror. It is not fear-mongering to suggest that terrorists will join in taking advantage of our porous borders."

Again, here's that ad:

On a conference call this afternoon, Edwards campaign advisers tore into Hillary Clinton over her performance at last night's debate, claiming she laughed off a question about trade policies that have a direct impact on the lives of working people:

"If you were in Iowa and you watched that debate," said Edwards campaign manger David Bonior, a former House Dem Whip, "and you were in tune to how those trade deals have hurt us, and you heard the response by Senator Clinton, and you heard the response by Senator Edwards, that would make a huge difference in regard to both of those candidates."

"I was shocked," said Leo Gerard, president of the United Steelworkers. "She might have wanted to laugh at Ross Perot, but she shouldn't have laughed at the fact that Ross Perot was right."

Here's a video of the moment where — according to the Edwards camp — Hillary laughed off the impact of NAFTA:

The Edwards camp's attack is part of a general argument that the Clintons are ultimately a bunch of corporatists selling out the American worker, and then dismiss any question about it. So do they have something here, or is this a stretch?

Okay, we've got some more detail for you on the controversy surrounding CNN and the girl who asked Hillary whether she prefers "diamonds or pearls" at the close of last night's debate.

Specifically, a CNN spokesperson confirmed to me that the network chose that question and asked her to ask it.

But in the network's defense the spokesperson also says that the girl wasn't "forced" to ask it. She submitted the question in advance -- it was her question -- and voluntarily agreed to ask it. CNN selected the question and asked her towards the close of the debate if she wanted to ask it. She said yes.

As you may have heard by now, the girl said on her MySpace page that she was forced to ask this question and that she would have preferred to ask one about Yucca Mountain. She said this in response to the storm of criticism and ridicule the question has since received.

And it looks like the girl is right: Though she did submit the question, CNN did select it and ask her to pose it.

Hillary's rivals are accusing CNN of going soft on the frontrunner, and they're pointing to this question, among other things, as proof of this.

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A new SurveyUSA poll in Iowa shows that Barack Obama is a stronger general election candidate in this swing state — one of only two to switch from Gore in 2000 to Bush in 2004 — than compared to Hillary Clinton's performance:

Clinton (D) 47%, Giuliani (R) 43%
Clinton (D) 49%, Romney (R) 43%
Clinton (D) 49%, Huckabee (R) 43%
McCain (R) 48%, Clinton (D) 44%
Obama (D) 52%, Giuliani (R) 39%
Obama (D) 53%, Romney (R) 39%
Obama (D) 56%, Huckabee (R) 35%
Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 42%

Barack Obama has just picked up a handy union endorsement in Iowa. The United Auto Workers Region 4, which includes Iowa, Illinois and seven other states, has endorsed his candidacy. The vote wasn't even close either — 65% out of about 420 delegates.

John Edwards and Hillary Clinton have been leading the race in union support, which can be very valuable in getting people out to the caucus. For Obama, getting some union support of his own certainly couldn't hurt.

Remember the "diamonds or pearls" question at last night's debate? The student who asked it is now saying that she was set up by CNN to ask it, and now, and complains that she's now being "swamped" by hateful e-mails as a result.

"Every single question asked during the debate by the audience had to be approved by CNN," UNLV student Maria Luisa wrote on her MySpace page. "I was asked to submit questions including 'lighthearted/fun' questions. I submitted more than five questions on issues important to me. I did a policy memo on Yucca Mountain a year ago and was the finalist for the Truman Scholarship. For sure, I thought I would get to ask the Yucca question that was APPROVED by CNN days in advance."

Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani are both enjoying leads throughout the South, according to a new Elon University poll. In the states of North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, Florida and Georgia, Clinton leads Obama by a 45%-17% margin, and Giuliani edges out the South's own son Fred Thompson by 25%-16%.

The poll confirms that both Obama and Thompson are struggling with what should be base constituencies: African-American voters and Southern conservatives, respectively.

John McCain's campaign is condemning the recent round of push-poll phone calls attacking Mitt Romney in New Hampshire, and is asking the state attorney general's office to investigate the calls for failing to disclose who paid for them. The McCain camp has good reason to want to condemn them — apparently they also ask "questions" that would benefit McCain

Campaign vice chairman Chuck Douglas acknowledged that the calls were "made to appear to be friendly to Senator McCain, but we had nothing to do with the poll at the state or national level." Assuming that they're being honest, this wouldn't be the only time they've had to deal with out-of-control donors/supporters, as they've also worked to stop an independent ad campaign in South Carolina.

Update: The calls have also been received in Iowa.

Okay, some really interesting stuff just went down in the Senate this morning with respect to Iraq war funding: GOP Senate leader Mitch McConnell tried to pull off a tricky maneuver that would have slipped no-strings-attached war funding passed Senate Dem leaders -- but it flopped.

The Senate GOPers did, however, succeed in killing a Dem bill that would have provided funding for the war but also had a provision containing withdrawal from Iraq as a mere goal.

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Here's today's key story out of the Iowa local press: The Des Moines Register reports that Congressman Steve King (R-IA) is openly bashing the idea of the Republican Party nominating Rudy Giuliani, warning that a Rudy nomination would undermine the GOP.

King was critical of Giuliani's record on abortion, gun rights and illegal immigration, as well as his past support for gay rights. "All these things are essential to the Reagan coalition," King said, worrying that Rudy's candidacy could give rise to a third-party spoiler candidate.

Here's today's key story out of the New Hampshire local press: The Union Leader reports that New Hampshirites have been getting push-poll calls — that is, calls disguised as polls but are actually meant to communicate negative message about a particular candidate — targeted against Mitt Romney.

The calls, which among other things attack Romney's Latter-Day Saints religion, have reportedly been traced back to Utah-based firm Western Wats, which has done push-polling in past general elections against Democrats as well as primary campaigns against Republicans. The calls do not specify which candidate is being supported by them, as is required under New Hampshire law.

Here's today's key story out of the South Carolina local press: The Spartanburg Herald-Journal has a story about Janet Huckabee's three-day bus tour of the first Southern primary state, accompanied by former South Carolina first ladies Iris Campbell and Mary Wood Beasley.

Huckabee has been enjoying a surge in the Iowa polls lately, but would need some organization and constituency beyond that even if he were to win the first caucus. South Carolina, with its large number of evangelical conservatives, would seem like fertile ground for the ex-governor and Baptist minister.

• The transcript of last night's Democratic debate is available here.

• Hillary Clinton's performance last night was much stronger than last time, and is being widely hailed by organized punditry as a comeback. That said, her challengers are still coming on strong in the wake of the last debate, and they didn't let up, either.

• David Yepsen gave the win to Hillary. "After two bad weeks in the 2008 Democratic presidential campaign, she recovered her footing and pushed back sharply at her opponents in a debate Thursday night," Yepsen writes. And as for the challengers: "They blew it."

• Hillary Clinton said she was not playing the gender card or running because she is a woman — and then skillfully played the gender card to great applause. "And I have to tell you, as I travel around the country, you know, fathers drive hours to bring their daughters to my events And so many women in their 90s wait to shake my hand," she said, "And they say something like: I'm 95 years old, I was born before women could vote, and I want to live long enough to see a woman in the White House."

• John Edwards did not attack Hillary quite as brutally as he has in past debates, possibly a sign that they know it can go too far and alienate voters. But at one point he criticized Hillary for taking money from lobbyists, and the audience booed — a sign that it might already have gone too far.

• Barack Obama also gave a forceful attack against Hillary, accusing her of distorting the facts on Social Security. He was met by a mix of loud applause and loud booing, but in his case there were far more applause. "You know, this is the kind of thing that I would expect from Mitt Romney or Rudy Giuliani, where we start playing with numbers," he said. "We start playing with numbers in order to try to make a point. And we can't do that. No, no, no. This is too important."

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This is pretty big. As some people have been speculating today, aides to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid have confirmed to me that the version of the FISA bill that was just reported out of the Judiciary Committee does not -- repeat, does not -- contain retroactive immunity for the telecom companies.

And a source close to Reid says that this is "most likely" the version that the Majority Leader will file a motion to proceed on. The aide declined to comment when this might happen, however, saying that it could happen next month.

All in all, it looks like a big victory for opponents of telecom immunity.

Late Update: Here's a bit more detail on what happened on the Judiciary Committee today. Sources say Senator Russ Feingold offered an amendment that would have stripped telecom immunity from the bill, but it was defeated. Then Senator Arlen Specter, the ranking GOPer on the committee, offered a "compromise" amendment saying that in these lawsuits the Federal government, and not the telecoms, would be the defendants.

But because of a procedural difficulty Specter's amendment wasn't voted on -- and Senator Patrick Leahy, the chair of the committee, essentially went around Specter's amendment and moved to have a vote to report the bill out of committee without any telecom immunity in it. That passed along strictly party lines. And that's where we are.

Hillary Clinton has a new radio ad in South Carolina, aimed at a key constituency in the state — veterans. In the new ad, Hillary pledges more support for veterans' health care, and declares that the government has been eager to send troops to Iraq but not eager to take care of them when they return.

In addition to the battle between Hillary and Obama for African-American voters, veterans could also turn out to be an important demographic for both parties' primaries — and a female candidate might have to work extra hard for their support.

The ad is available after the jump.

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A senior GOP official in Iowa tells us that Mitt Romney has decided not to attend the Fox News GOP debate in the state that was set for December 4 -- effectively killing the debate, according to this official.

Chuck Laudner, the executive director of the Iowa GOP, says that he got word of Romney's decision two hours ago. He claims that other leading GOP contenders were waiting to see what Romney was going to do -- and now that Romney won't be attending, the others will pull out too.

"With no frontrunner, there's no debate," Laudner said, adding that many Iowa GOPers would be upset with Romney's decision -- a potential blow in a state where Romney is facing an aggressive insurgent challenge from Mike Huckabee. The Iowa GOP had been heavily promoting the debate, the first one to be broadcast by Fox News in the state.

"It's disappointing," Laudner said, adding that Huckabee, John McCain and Fred Thompson had said they'd be showing up and that Rudy was waiting to see what Romney did. "We're losing a statewide 2000-person event. It's a huge, huge event. We had county chairs raising money off of it. They're not gonna be too happy."

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The new Obama ad in New Hampshire goes beyond the usual political ad, in which the politician promises to do something for people. Instead, the candidate here does call for more educational opportunities, but also asks the people to take care of an important need themselves:

Ben Smith says one line in particular adds a "Clintonian" touch: "We need parents to turn off the television and instill in our children a sense of excellence."

A question from the new Fox News poll is pretty telling about what we might be seeing in a couple months:

If you woke up tomorrow morning and the United States were suddenly in an extremely serious crisis, which presidential candidate would make you the most comfortable sitting behind the desk in the oval office making decisions — Hillary Clinton or Rudy Giuliani?

Giuliani 46%
Clinton 41%

One should consider this a sneak peek of the campaign that Giuliani will run if he wins the Republican nomination. Come to think of it, it's the campaign he's been running this whole time — and if this poll is any indication, it might be Rudy's best hope.

The Edwards campaign unveils a new Web site: Plants For Hillary. It features pics of actual Hillary-supporting shrubbery asking, you know, planted questions. Take a look.

In all seriousness, the officially-sanctioned campaign attack Web site, as opposed to the surreptitious one, is one of the many new genres we're seeing more of in Campaign 2008, along with the official campaign attack YouTube and other similar stuff. This campaign really has gotten those creative juices flowing, hasn't it?

Get ready for another filibuster showdown. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) said at a press conference today that he is ready to keep the Senate in session through the weekend in a new effort to force votes on the new $50 billion stop-gap spending bill for Iraq, which ties funding to a drawdown of troops.

"We'll either do it the easy way or the hard way. It's up to the Republicans," Reid said at a press conference today, according to Roll Call. "We will have a Sunday vote scheduled ... If they want to give us consent to have a vote earlier, we'll do that. But if they don't, we're not only going to be here, we're going to be here working."

Sidney Blumenthal, a longtime fixture in the Clinton firmament, has announced over at Salon that he's joining the Hillary campaign as a "senior adviser."

Sid, who wrote for The New Yorker in the 1990s before joining the Clinton administration, has long been tight with Hillary, helping her get elected to the Senate in 2000. So, as Kevin Drum notes, this is not unexpected given their history, but it could make a bit of news, given Sid's often-aggressive posture towards the media.

Indeed, Sid was one of the chief elaborators and promoters of Hillary's "right-wing conspiracy" view of the political media. So this might result in more aggressive pushback against the media from Camp Hillary than we already seen -- though it's unclear whether he'll have the same pull within Hillaryland that he once had.

A spokesman for the Hillary campaign didn't immediately return a request for comment on exactly what role Sid would be playing.

So it looks as if national Dem strategists are planning a major political offensive against House Republicans on the subprime mortgage crisis -- an issue Dems think will help them capture more House seats in 2008. And the polls appear to suggest that there's plenty of voter angst out there to speak to.

In an interview with Roll Call, DCCC chief Chris Van Hollen made it clear that national Dems think the issue could play out as a winner for them and knock Republicans onto the defensive heading into next year's elections. “You are already hearing candidates talk about it,” Van Hollen said. Roll Call adds that House Dems will bring a big mortgage overhaul bill to the House floor today that has considerable support from rank-and-file House Repubs but is opposed by Republican leaders.

House Dem leaders think this will give them a big opening to paint the GOP leadership as in the pocket of mortgage industry groups and callously out of touch with the American people on the issue -- and feed their argument that the GOP is indifferent to the economic squeeze felt by the middle class.

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The new SurveyUSA poll of Ohio apparently shows Hillary Clinton to a more electable Democrat than Barack Obama in this key swing state:

Clinton (D) 49%, Giuliani (R) 44%
Clinton (D) 51%, Romney (R) 42%
Clinton (D) 54%, Huckabee (R) 37%
McCain (R) 47%, Clinton (D) 46%
Giuliani (R) 49%, Obama (D) 41%
Obama (D) 45%, Romney (R) 41%
Obama (D) 48%, Huckabee (R) 38%
McCain (R) 52%, Obama (D) 37%

Other polls in Ohio have shown that John Edwards does better against the Republicans than either Hillary or Obama, perhaps due to his populist appeal.

Here's today's key story out of the Iowa local press: The Des Moines Register has a feature on a major difficulty posed by this cycle's January 3 caucus — specifically that student participation, which was 3.9% of the Democratic caucus in 2004, will be seriously diminished because of the winter vacation.

Some organizers are pushing to keep college dorms open during the break, and are refocusing their efforts specifically on in-state students as opposed to out-of-staters who would otherwise be legally qualified to vote in Iowa.

In yet another sign of Mike Huckabee's surge in Iowa, a new poll released this morning shows that the Iowa GOP Primary has officially become a two person race between Huckabee and Mitt Romney -- and it's now unclear who's ahead.

The new American Research Group survey finds that Romney and Huckabee are effectively tied, with Romney at 26% and Huckabee at 24% among likely Republican caucus goers, well within the margin of error. Rudy and John McCain lag way behind at 11% and 10% respectively.

That's not all. The poll also finds that of among registered Republicans who say they'll definitely participate in the caucuses, Mike Huckabee has a slight edge over Romney, 24%-23%, though this is also a statistical tie. This suggests some solidifying bedrock support for Huckabee.

This poll echoes the findings of several other polls released this week.

The key here is that even a strong second-place finish against Romney in Iowa -- let alone an upset victory -- will be perceived as a big loss by Romney, since he has sunk huge amounts of money into the state and has made his lead in Iowa (and New Hampshire) a touchstone of his argument as to why he can win the nomination. So with the Iowa caucuses fast approaching, Huckabee's surge has very big implications for Romney indeed.

We'll bring you a post on the local reasons for Huckabee's Iowa surge in a bit.

Here's today's key story out of the New Hampshire local press: The Union Leader reports that Secretary of State Bill Gardner said he will not set the primary date this week. Instead, Gardner is waiting on news from Michigan about whether their rogue January 15 primary law, which a judge invalidated for technical reasons, will go forward or not.

Gardner is empowered by state law to unilaterally set the primary date, so as to protect the state's position as the first primary. He has been hinting/threatening at a December date, but most observers expect the primary to be held on January 8 if the Michigan law is upheld.

Here's today's key story out of the South Carolina local press: The State has a feature story today on the efforts by the second-tier Democrats to try to break through in South Carolina, mainly through the support of key state legislators and the hope that the top three Dems might run into problems in Iowa and New Hampshire.

The main challenge seems to be that the these candidates have to break through the dominant media focus on Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, and to a lesser extent on John Edwards. At the same time, the bar being set for success seems to be very negotiable. "If Joe Biden comes out of Iowa first, second, third, or fourth," said state Rep. Fletcher Smith, a Biden state co-chair, "then the national press will follow him and give him momentum to go on."

Here's a seat that House Democrats might have to worry about: Indiana state Rep. Jon Elrod (R), considered a rising star in local GOP circles, will announce his plans to challenge Rep. Julia Carson (D-IN) next year.

Carson, who has suffered from a series of health complications in recent years and is currently on medical leave, has been openly contemplating retirement. Despite her district's Democratic tilt — John Kerry took 58% of its vote in 2004 — Carson won by a lackluster 54%-46% margin in 2004 against an underfunded opponent, giving the GOP some hope for an upset here.

The Des Moines Register has scheduled two more debates, giving Iowans another chance to scrutinize their choices.

The Republican debate will be held December 12, and seven candidates have accepted the invitation. Only Rudy Giuliani — whose campaign seems to be down-playing the state — has yet to commit. The Democratic debate will be held the very next day, December 13, exactly three weeks before the caucuses, and the top six Democrats have been confirmed as attendees.

A group of House members have sent out a packet nominating Bill Richardson for a Nobel Peace Prize, in honor of Richardson's work in such countries as Sudan and North Korea. "I'm profoundly humbled by this nomination, but I was just trying to do my part," Richardson said

Some of the 12 members who co-signed the packet are Richardson endorsers, but others are not — one is even a Republican, Jim Ramstad of Minnesota. However, it's unclear whether any of them are among the roughly 3,000 officially designated nominators that the Nobel Committee selects each year, or whether this is one of the many unsolicited nominations that the Committee receives regularly.

Former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert (R-IL) is expected to announce his resignation today, and has scheduled time on the House floor to give his farewell speech. However, an exact date for his departure has not yet been set.

Hastert did not seek a position on the GOP leadership team after they lost the majority in 2006, and had already announced that he would not seek another term in 2008. The only question left had been whether he would serve out his full term.

Former Sen. John Durkin (D-NH), the last Democrat to win a Senate election in New Hampshire, will reportedly endorse Chris Dodd.

Durkin was elected to one term in a special election in 1975, following a close, disputed result in the regular 1974 race, and was defeated in 1980 by Republican Warren Rudman. He endorsed Howard Dean in the 2004 race, then rescinded his endorsement after the "Dean Scream" speech and switched his support over to John Edwards just before the New Hampshire primary.

The country's Catholic bishops have approved a document entitled "Forming Consciences for Faithful Citizenship," essentially a guide on how Catholics can maintain their faith in the context of voting in the upcoming election. The guidelines do give Catholics an escape clause if they want to vote for a pro-choice candidate, saying that it must be despite that position and because of "other morally grave reasons."

Another cardinal, Sean P. O'Malley of Boston, is not being so flexible. Saying that the Democratic Party is "extremely insensitive" to the church's positions, he's openly criticizing the support that many Catholics give to Democratic candidates: "I think that, at times, it borders on scandal as far as I'm concerned."

Barack Obama has been hitting Hillary regularly for allegedly standing in the way of the release of records of the Clinton Presidency -- prompting many to ask whether he would release his own records from his time in the State Senate. Well, now Obama has offered an answer of sorts to those asking him to do this: He doesn't have any records.

"I don't have — I don't maintain — a file of eight years of work in the state Senate because I didn't have the resources available to maintain those kinds of records," Obama said during a campaign stop in Iowa.

Of course, as the AP story notes, "Obama hasn't always claimed there were no papers left from his time in the state Senate." Check out the full story here.

A new Quinnipiac poll of Ohio shows Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani continuing to lead their respective primaries — although Rudy has only a weak plurality, and the general election match-ups would seem to say that John Edwards is the most electable Democrat for this key swing state.

Hillary leads the Dem side with a healthy 42%, followed way behind by Barack Obama at 17% and John Edwards with 14%. On the Republican side: Rudy 27%, McCain 14%, Thompson 13%, and Romney 11%.

The general election numbers are available after the jump.

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That was quick. Here's Obama spokesman Bill Burton, on Hillary's announcement earlier that she now opposes giving driver's licenses to illegals:

“When it takes two weeks and six different positions to answer one question on immigration, it’s easier to understand why the Clinton campaign would rather plant their questions than answer them.”

Um, ouch?

After weeks of taking a pounding from Dem rivals for not taking a clear enough position on whether she supported New York Governor Eliot Spitzer's plan to give driver's licenses to illegals, Hillary has now come out against the plan in the wake of news that Spitzer withdrew it this afternoon. Here's her statement:

"I support Governor Spitzer's decision today to withdraw his proposal. As president, I will not support driver's licenses for undocumented people and will press for comprehensive immigration reform that deals with all of the issues around illegal immigration including border security and fixing our broken system."

This is likely to spark a whole new round of skirmishing among the Dems. Last month, just after the debate where she gave an equivocal answer about whether she supported the plan, Hillary advisers told The Washington Post that she ultimately backed the plan.

Today's statement will almost certainly provoke another volley of criticism of her from rivals who will point to that previous position as proof of her vacillation on the issue. Stay tuned.

Late Update: Obama responds.

Late Late Update: The Huffington Post quotes an Obama aide saying that unlike Hillary, Obama sticks by Spitzer's original plan. This drew a sharp response from Hillary spokesman Phil Singer, who told HuffPo:

"It's unfortunate that the other campaigns are employing hot rhetoric, but there are basic differences between the candidates: Sen. Clinton would not give driver's licenses to undocumented people, Senator Obama would."

It's worth remembering, of course, that Hillary did support this same underlying policy idea before. Now, however, the Hillary camp is seeking to draw a sharp contrast with Obama over it.

Ron Paul's campaign is really raking in the cash for his effort to up-end the current policies of the Republican Party. The Paul campaign's stated goal for the quarter is $12 million, and they're not playing the expectations game, either - they're posting a running tally on their front page of just how much they've brought in.

So how are they doing so far? The quarter is less than halfway over, but they've already brought in over $8.1 million as of this writing, over two thirds of the way there. So while Paul hasn't performed well in the polls and has garnered no establishment support, the dollar count sure seems to demonstrate a genuine yearning for a conservative alternative to the current Republican consensus.

One other quick thing about the email the McCain camp sent out attacking CNN for covering his supporter's "how do we beat the bitch" moment: It fibs pretty audaciously about what actually happened at the event.

Here's how the email, from McCain campaign manager Rick Davis, describes it:

A voter used a word that I would not have used to describe Senator Hillary Clinton and asked the Senator how he was going to beat her. Senator McCain first responded by saying that he respected Senator Clinton, as he has said repeatedly throughout the campaign. Then, focusing on the question, he pointed to the new Rasmussen national poll showing that he is the only Republican candidate who can beat her in a general election.

Actually, that's not how it happened at all, as the video shows. Rather, what happened was that first the supporter asked the "bitch" question. Then he laughed and said, "that's an excellent question." Then he went on to talk about the poll. Than, finally, as an afterthought, he added that he "respected" her. He did not "first respond" by professing his respect, as the email claims.

Special thanks to TPM Reader JH for sending this in.

Stanford professor Lawrence Lessig, one of the founders of the Creative Commons movement and a leading intellectual and legal proponent of free information and open government, has endorsed Barack Obama.

"After the debacle that is the last 7 years, the duty is upon the Democrats to be something different ... I would give my left arm to be able to celebrate their difference," Lessig writes. "This man, Mr. Obama, would be that difference. He has as much support as I can give."

Jim Hovland, mayor of Edina, Minnesota, declared his candidacy yesterday for the seat of GOP Rep. Jim Ramstad, whose retirement has created a top pick-up opportunity for Democrats in a swing district.

Hovland was a Republican himself until recently, but switched to the Democrats and then began exploring the race — and he says he's gotten a good reception from the state DFL Central Committee. Other Democrats already in the race are state Sen. Terri Bonoff and Iraq War veteran Ashwin Madia, while state Rep. Erik Paulsen is the only declared Republican.

Okay, this is fun. The video we posted yesterday of a McCain supporter calling Hillary a "bitch" has now sparked a full-fledged war between the McCain campaign and CNN.

And amusingly, the McCain campaign is now actually sending out the video to its supporters as a way of drumming up support.

Let me explain.

Yesterday evening, CNN's Rick Sanchez did a spot on McCain's appearance at the event. When a supporter asked, "how do we beat the bitch," McCain laughed, and a bit later answered: "That's an excellent question." CNN's Sanchez took McCain sharply to task for this on his spot, and CNN flashed on its screen the following:

"An Excellent Question?"

John McCain and the B-Word

Now McCain's campaign is trying to turn this to its advantage -- by opening fire on the network and portraying it as both a Hillary ally and a liberal media foil to McCain. McCain campaign manager Rick Davis has just blasted out an email to supporters demanding that CNN apologize to the Arizona Senator for smearing him.

From the email:

The CNN Network, affectionately known as the Clinton News Network, has stooped to an all-time low and is gratuitously attacking John McCain for not defending Hillary Clinton enough when a South Carolina voter used the 'B' word to describe her when John McCain stopped into a luncheon yesterday at the Trinity restaurant in Hilton Head, SC.

A voter used a word that I would not have used to describe Senator Hillary Clinton and asked the Senator how he was going to beat her. Senator McCain first responded by saying that he respected Senator Clinton, as he has said repeatedly throughout the campaign....

As an independent news agency, CNN owes John McCain an apology because of the outrageous behavior of their network host Rich Sanchez...Senator McCain is a fighter and he is not going to back down to CNN.

Best of all, the McCain email then suggests CNN ran the story because it's in cahoots with Hillary and because CNN knows that "John McCain is the only Republican who beats Hillary Clinton in recent national polling data and who will beat her in the general election."

The McCain campaign's email also includes our video for supporters to watch.

The reason this is interesting is that McCain is trying to accomplish two things here: He's calling attention to the video because he thinks it will appeal to wingnuts who will like the fact that McCain's supporter called Hillary a "bitch" and that he didn't condemn this. But that's not all. He's also doubling down by lumping CNN and Hillary together and suggesting that they're conspiring to bring him down, because he's the only one who can beat Hillary.

Fun times.

Late Update: Atrios has a great catch on the rather mindless reaction of one pundit to all this.

The newest national poll by American Research Group could just be a statistical outlier — or it could be the first sign that Rudy Giuliani is losing his national lead among Republicans.

Rudy leads the GOP field with only a 25% plurality, followed by Mitt Romney with a very strong 21% — statistically tied, given the ±4% margin of error. Fred Thompson is in third with 17%, and John McCain is in fourth with 12%.

The Democratic side isn't anywhere near that close. Hillary Clinton has 46%, Barack Obama 21%, and John Edwards 11%. This is about in line with other recent national polls.

Mitt Romney has recently made the illegal immigration issue a centerpiece of his ads and literature. Now having been the target of attacks by Romney, Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee are hitting back — and both are calling Romney a hypocrite.

"He had more sanctuary cities than just about any other state and did very little about it until the last day or two he was in office and it never had any impact," Rudy told reporters in Iowa, in response to attacks from Romney that Rudy and Hillary share a "sanctuary state of mind." "I think people will have to weigh how credible his claims are given his very poor record in that area."

Mike Huckabee, meanwhile, is hitting back at Romney for attacking Huckabee's support of college scholarships for the children of illegals. "I guess Mitt Romney would rather keep people out of college so they can keep working on his lawn," Huckabee said, referring to the employing of illegals by a landscaping firm that Romney had hired.

Fred Thompson has a new ad in Iowa — set in the same folksy diner setting as his previous ad — featuring the candidate talking to the camera about his opposition to amnesty for illegal immigrants:

Two new polls strongly suggest that Mike Huckabee has got very good movement in Iowa.

The New York Times/CBS survey released yesterday finds that Mitt Romney is leading the GOP pack with 27%, with Huckabee six points behind him in second with 21%. Given that the margin of error of the poll is plus or minus five, that puts Huckabee squarely in contention for first place. Rudy, meanwhile, lags in third with 15%.

That's not all. The poll also shows Huckabee with a 50% approval rating in the state, significantly higher than Rudy and second only to Romney, who has 57%. And it finds that far more Iowa voters are choosing their candidate based on their values and/or stance on the issues than on their handling of terrorism and/or 9/11.

Meanwhile, a Strategic Vision poll released yesterday contains similar findings: While Romney is in first with 30%, Huckabee is in second with 19%, and Rudy is in third with 12%. Tellingly, only a month ago Strat Vision found Rudy and Huckabee tied for second with 13% and 12% respectively.

Now Huckabee has jumped seven points into second place, while Rudy hasn't budged at all. With the Iowa caucuses fast approaching, that's some pretty good positioning for Huckabee.

Here's today's key story out of the Iowa local press: The Des Moines Register reports that Republican Senator Chuck Grassley says he does not expect to make an endorsement in the caucus, though he has not ruled it out entirely.

The main reason — and perhaps this is a comment on the weakness of the GOP field — is that he doesn't see a single candidate who is a clearly electable favorite and is right on all the issues. When asked by the Register what might change his mind, Grassley said, "It's probably finding the ideal candidate, which is being an economic and social conservative and having tens of millions of dollars."

Here's today's key story out of the New Hampshire local press: The Concord Monitor reports that Harvard Law professor Laurence Tribe went campaigning in New Hampshire yesterday for his old student, Barack Obama. Tribe will also be making some more campaign stops today, in a sign that the Obama campaign is moving to solidify their base with more affluent, educated voters even as Obama himself is reaching out to the working class.

"The next president won't be in a position to make this a liberal court, but he can prevent it from becoming reactionary and moving to unreviewable executive power," Tribe said, adding that Obama shares his views on Constitutional law.

Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS) has announced today that he will seek re-election in 2008, ending rumors that he was leaning towards retirement.

The news is a disappointment to Senate Democrats, who had hoped to make a serious play for Cochran's open seat.

Here's today's key story out of the South Carolina local press: The State has a story on the competition between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama for African-American voters in the key Southern primary. The paper finds that to a certain extent black voters, including black women, genuinely like both candidates — but that this only becomes a new obstacle for Obama to overcome.

"At some point, the gloves have to come off, and he'll have to stop being so nice," said Danielle Vinson, a political science professor at Winthrop University. "He's given us reasons to vote for him. He hasn't given us a reason not to vote for her."

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is setting an ambitious fundraising target for its incumbent lawmakers — a whopping $154 million, more than four times the amount House Republicans are trying to raise.

Since the National Republican Congressional Committee is already lagging behind the DCCC in the money race, the new fundraising goal — if met — would give House Democrats a potentially overwhelming advantage in the 2008 congressional elections.

Judith Regan, former book publisher for a Rupert Murdoch subsidiary, is now alleging that News Corporation executives asked her to lie to federal investigators about her affair with Bernie Kerik, in the wake of his short-lived nomination for secretary of homeland security.

The reason? Regan says New Corporation favored Rudy Giuliani's not-yet-declared campaign for president, and didn't want any bad publicity to undermine him. If these allegations turn out to be true, it will be one more piece of evidence for those who say that Fox News has been pulling for Rudy.

University of Iowa communications professor Bruce Gronbeck has told the Des Moines Register that John Edwards' new ad, in which he threatens to take away Congress' health care if they don't pass universal coverage, is misleading. "The ad is saying he'd just cut them off. It's pretty clear," Gronbeck said.

Edwards told the Register in a phone interview that the president does not have the power to unilaterally take away Congress' coverage, but that he actually means he would introduce legislation to that effect and then campaign in individual members' districts in order to put pressure on them to pass it. When asked whether the ad clearly communicated this message, Edwards replied, "It's a 30-second ad."

Rudy Giuliani's campaign has rolled out its first TV ad of the whole cycle, which will begin running tomorrow in New Hampshire. The 60-second ad features Rudy talking about how he successfully governed New York City, solving many of the problems the city faced when he first came into office:

Running his first ad in New Hampshire, as opposed to Iowa, would seem to be another hint that Rudy is trying to circumvent the first caucus state in favor of other states that would be more fertile ground for his candidacy. Rudy has done better in New Hampshire polls, where he has placed second to Romney, than he has in Iowa, where Mike Huckabee has leapfrogged over him for the second spot.

In a speech yesterday at The Citadel in South Carolina, Fred Thompson called for expanding the size of the military to a one-million strong ground force. Thompson declared, "We've been asking too few troops to do too much for too long."

"Half measures and small increases will no longer do," he added. "We need the best all-volunteer force that can meet the security needs of this country. And they must be organized, trained and equipped to deal with tomorrow's threats as well as today."

John Edwards has a new ad out in South Carolina, talking about how the mill where his father and he worked is now closed, denouncing how companies have put profits ahead of American jobs:

The new New York Times/CBS poll of Iowa and New Hampshire has just been released. Key findings:

* The Dem contest is basically tied in Iowa while Hillary enjoys a large lead in New Hampshire, both of which we know already;

* The claim by Hillary's Dem rivals that she's too politically calculating may be bearing some fruit, with Iowa voters split on whether they think she says what she believes or says what she thinks people want to hear (in New Hampshire, a solid majority trusts her to say what she believes);

* Mitt Romney has solid leads in New Hampshire and Iowa but large numbers of Romney voters are open to changing their minds;

* Large chunks of New Hampshire and Iowa Republicans are open to voting for a candidate who disagrees with them on abortion and same-sex marriage, a potential plus for Rudy.

The full poll is here. Dig in and tell us what you find.

From the new Strategic Vision poll of Iowa voters (via email):

When Republicans were asked if they favored a withdrawal from Iraq in the next six months, 53% said yes; 36% said no; and 11% were undecided.

A majority of Iowa Republicans wants to pull out "in the next six months"? Is there anyone -- save Ron Paul -- representing these people? Is there anyone left -- save GOP elected officials -- who wants us to stay in Iraq?

A number of folks have been asking whether Hillary's said whether she'll unequivocally commit to supporting the Dem Presidential nominee, whoever it ends up being. Well, here's the statement on this question from Hillary spokesperson Phil Singer:

Sen. Clinton has spent her entire adult life supporting democrats running for office and isn't about to change that now. We fully expect that Sen. Clinton will be the nominee, but if she isn't she will of course support the Democratic nominee.

A number of you have asked for the full context of John Edwards' clarification early today as to whether he'd support Hillary if she's the Democratic nominee. Well, ask and ye shall receive. We've got the video of it here for you:

This latest bit of bad publicity for Hillary can't be helpful. The Huffington Post has an interview up with Anita Esterday, the Iowa waitress at the center of a controversy regarding whether or not she got a tip. She reiterates a few points: She didn't get a tip, no other waitress saw a tip from Hillary and her entourage, and she really, really doesn't like Hillary at this point:

Does this change the way you are approaching the presidential election?

I've been an independent all my life. My mom was a Democrat and my father a Republican. I just sat back and watched them argue and stayed in the middle. But I'm not going to vote for Hillary. That is a definite. No one could pay me enough money. My opinion of her has changed drastically. The more I read and find out about her it changes more and more to the negative. I don't believe she can help out the working women of this world because I don't believe she gets it.

A Dem operative has just forwarded us a health care mailer that the Edwards campaign has dropped in Iowa. He reiterates his threat to take health care away from Congress if they don't pass "true universal health care" in this panel:

And also note the part about Elizabeth Edwards' cancer on this panel:

Full mailer after the jump.

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Below we noted that a local Fox affiliate had reported on a John McCain event in South Carolina where he'd stood by while one of his supporters called Hillary a "bitch." The footage the Fox affiliate used had been edited to make it unclear what his response was.

Well, now Tim Grieve at Salon has dug up a fuller version of the video from another local station. Take a look:

"How do we beat the bitch?" McCain's supporter asked him. And as you can see, it appears that after McCain joked about offering a "translation" of his supporter's query, he said:

"That's an excellent question."

He went on to add that he had "respect" for Hillary. We've checked in again with the McCain camp for comment on this, and we'll bring you their answer if we get one.

Late Update: A McCain spokesman emails over the following:

"McCain has on many occasions expressed his respect for Senator Clinton, just as he did when confronted with the question in South Carolina."

Today at a press availability John Edwards was asked by reporters about his refusal to say that he'd back Hillary for President if she wins the Democratic nomination. The Edwards camp has just emailed me his answer:

"I fully expect to support the Democratic nominee, and I fully expect to be the Democratic nominee."

"I fully expect" to support the nominee -- not quite "I will support." It's more than, "I'm not willing to talk about that at this point," which is what he'd said earlier. But it's still not a full commitment to backing the Dem nominee.

Not sure what this is about.

Late Update: A number of commenters below say that this is a sufficient answer from Edwards. Fair enough -- I probably am guilty of overparsing here.

But -- to all the commenters screaming "bias," please understand that the Edwards campaign sent us the above quote. They wanted us to post it.

Late Late Update: Ed Kilgore is uncomfortable with Edwards' statement:

For some of us old-timers, the Edwards formulation was evocative of the highly calculated mantra repeated endlessly by Ted Kennedy in 1980, before he decided to challenge Jimmy Carter for the Democratic presidential nomination: "I expect President Carter to be renominated, and I intend to support him."

Any way you look at it, Edwards has guaranteed he's going to get asked this question again until he specifically says he'll support the nominee no matter who it is, much as Obama has already done--and perhaps until he gets into the habit of saying that much as he dislikes HRC, she's far preferable to anyone the opposition can nominate.

Still Later Update: Here's some video of Edwards answering the question.

Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey (D-NE) said today that he will not run for the seat of retiring Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE), giving Senate Democrats their second dose of disappointment from Nebraska after former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D) decided not to run last month.

Fahey was seen as a credible candidate, and his decision likely makes the GOP more favored to retain the open seat. Rancher Scott Kleeb (D), who ran a competitive House campaign in the state's most conservative turf in 2006, is still considering the race.

The Edwards campaign has responded to allegations that the candidate's vow to take health care benefits away from Congress if they don't pass universal health coverage, which is the centerpiece of his new ad, would violate the 27th Amendment. Their response is available after the jump.

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We've just obtained some video of a Fox local affiliate reporting on a McCain campaign appearance in South Carolina. In it, one of McCain's supporters emphatically calls Hillary Clinton, McCain's fellow United States Senator, a "bitch."

McCain's response? According to the Fox affiliate's reporter, McCain "laughed off" the comment. Take a look:

Transcript:

FOX REPORTER: Of course there could be a lot of name-calling on the campaign trail. But the candidates aren't the only ones doing the mudslinging. During an event in South Carolina yesterday, Arizona Senator John McCain was asked how he planned on beating his democratic rival Hillary Clinton. And his supporter used a term that rhymes with "rich."

MCCAIN SUPPORTER: How do we beat the bitch?

FOX REPORTER: McCain laughed off the comment and then he tried to change the subject.

We contacted the McCain campaign about this to ask whether McCain should have condemned the remark, whether he wanted to condemn it now, and whether the Fox affiliate's report had represented what happened accurately.

His camp declined to comment.

CNN has done an interview with Muriel Gallo-Chasanoff, the Iowa college student who first accused the Hillary Clinton campaign of planting a question at an event, and she is sure that she wasn't the only one. And what's more, she says a Clinton intern has approached her and requested that she not talk to the press about this anymore.

Gallo-Chasanoff says she was approached by a staffer who asked her if she'd like to pose a question to Hillary, so she replied that she would want to ask Hillary how her energy plan compared to the other candidates. Instead, the staffer took out a binder with a list of canned queries. "The top one was planned specifically for a college student," said Gallo-Chasanoff. "It said 'college student' in brackets and then the question."

Here's today's key story out of the Iowa local press: The Des Moines Register reports on this week's United Auto Workers regional conference in Dubuque, and the appearances there by the Democratic candidates. The union heard yesterday from Hillary Clinton, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd and Dennis Kucinich. Barack Obama is appearing today, and John Edwards will go tomorrow.

The UAW remains a politically potent force in the Midwest, so whoever can get their endorsement will have a decent leg up in the caucus.

Here's today's key story out of the New Hampshire local press: The Concord Monitor reports that Barack Obama is reaching out to blue-collar voters in the state by talking about his own upbringing — having been raised by his single mother and maternal grandparents. It's the sort of appeal that might be able to help him reach beyond his more educated base, and overcome his gap among lower-income voters.

"And it was tough," Obama told the crowd during an event at a chocolate factory. "There were a couple of times when she had to go on food stamps ... She was constantly trying to patch things together - scholarships, loans, grants. It took her a long time to complete her education."

Here's today's key story out of the South Carolina local press: The Spartanburg Herald-Journal reports that the Rudy Giuliani campaign opened its upstate headquarters yesterday, its third office in the state, but that Rudy wasn't there. Instead, Rudy supporters got a visit from the campaign's national director, Mike DuHaime.

Rudy's campaign has recently said they don't need to win the earlier states, but can instead rely on his national celebrity and a strong showing on February 5 to make up for only moderate vote totals in the earlier contests. For his part, Rudy spent yesterday in Missouri — which is a February 5 state.

John Edwards' campaign against Hillary Clinton is definitely getting nasty. During an Iowa campaign stop, the New York Times reports that Edwards declined to answer whether he would support Hillary if she were the nominee. "I'm not willing to talk about that at this point," Edwards said, then waiting for the next question.

The other Democratic candidates have pledged to support the eventual nominee, and only Tom Tancredo and Ron Paul have refused to make a similar promise on the Republican side.

Late Update: Edwards has responded further, saying that "I fully expect" to support the nominee.

According to CNN, Mitt Romney has spent $10.2 million on TV ads this year, breaking the record for this point during a campaign. The closest competitor on the Republican side is John McCain — who has only spent over $300,000 on TV ads.

Bear in mind that the vast majority of that number is going towards places like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina — and doesn't even count other media like radio and print advertising. Thus, the reason for Romney's leads in the key states is becoming clearer.

In his new ad in Iowa, John Edwards reiterates his threat that as president he would take away Congress' health care if they don't provide universal coverage for everybody.

Such an action might not actually be Constitutional, as the 27th Amendment declares: "No law varying the compensation for the services of the Senators and Representatives shall take effect until an election of Representatives shall have intervened." It's also highly doubtful that the president has any sort of statutory or other executive authority like this.

Here's a denunciation of Hillary that might just get her some more liberal votes. The Washington Times reports that 24 creator Joel Surnow — who was also responsible for the 1/2-Hour News Hour — says the idea of her being president is "nuts."

"Are we nuts thinking Hillary Clinton could be president of this country?" Surnow said at a Young America's Foundation conference. "Honest to God, just stand back and think about it."

The Clinton campaign has responded to allegations that Bill Clinton was playing the gender card when he said, "Even though those boys have been getting tough on her lately, she can handle it."

The New York Times reports that Clinton advisors say Bill was not speaking in terms of gender, but instead say the native Arkansan was simply using Southern vernacular.

So how does Rudy plan to get Federal spending under control? He explained his plan today during a campaign appearance that was captured by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch:

He promised to end “overspending by government, overtaxing by government, overregulating by government and oversuing” by Americans.

To cut government spending, Giuliani promised to replace only half of the federal workers expected to retire over the next eight to 10 years. He promised to retain the tax cuts put in place by the Bush administration. Those two actions, he said, would require that average Americans take more responsibility for their lives.

Really? So during President Rudy's two terms we'll only see half of retiring Federal workers replaced? That's quite a pledge. We're going to dig into this tomorrow. How many Federal workers are expected to retire? How many Federal workers would we lose under President Rudy? Seems worth pursing.

Special thanks to TPM Reader SD for sending this one in.

A statement in South Carolina today by Bill Clinton should give some strong ammunition to those who have accused the Hillary campaign of playing the gender card in order to win sympathy/support.

"Even though those boys have been getting tough on her lately, she can handle it," the former president said to a student audience in Charleston.

The media is really piling on the reports of Hillary Clinton's campaign planting questions at her events, and they're now asking the other candidates what they think. Barack Obama has now responded, CNN reports, and he says he's never done anything like it and has no plans to start.

"I'll let Sen. Clinton answer for her campaign," Obama said. "When I go into a town hall meeting, I never know what questions to expect and that's a good thing because the people of New Hampshire should expect that their candidates are going to hear what's on the voters' minds and not what's been concocted by the candidate's staff."

In fact, Obama went one step further and even said he's gotten questions that have stumped him.

Tom Tancredo's new ad, set to run in Iowa — if any stations will accept it, that is — is a true original. The ad depicts the dire consequences of our open borders through a dramatization of a fictitious terrorist attack in the middle of a shopping mall. Furthermore, it even ends with the sound of an explosion!

One has to wonder if the plot is taken from the hypothetical terror scenario described by Brit Hume at the first Fox News debate earlier this year, which involved terrorist attacks taking place at malls.

John McCain has a new ad in New Hampshire, entitled "Outrageous," denouncing wasteful spending in Washington. And he's still going after Hillary Clinton for the Woodstock Museum earmark:

"A million dollars for a Woodstock Museum — in a bill sponsored by Hillary Clinton," the narrator says, over stock footage of some dirty hippies. "Predictable."

Rudy Giuliani's campaign is explicitly spelling out its campaign strategy, according to the Wall St. Journal — and they don't think they have to win either Iowa or New Hampshire.

The idea, according to the Rudy team, is that his national celebrity and strong fundraising mean they can withstand poor showings in Iowa and even New Hampshire, then go on to places like Florida — a winner-take-all contest — and then Super Tuesday, with contests in Rudy-friendly states like New Jersey, New York and California.

The result, according to Rudy strategist Mike DuHaime, is that "the mayor’s not going to be eliminated by any of the early contests."

So Fred Thompson will pick up the much-coveted endorsement of the National Right to Life Committee, a critical get at a critical time for Thompson.

Last week, amid Thompson's dropping numbers, three of his top rivals -- Rudy, John McCain, and Mitt Romney -- all paraded out conservative endorsements. This was a blow, to put it mildly, to Thompson's efforts to portray himself as the person conservatives would rally around. But now that he's been embraced by this leading pro-life group, Thompson finally has a prominent conservative endorsement to call his own.

The party nominations haven't been settled yet, but the party organizers themselves are already busy creating the independent fundraising and advertising groups that we'll be seeing on our TV sets through the general election.

The Washington Post reports that Democratic strategists are preparing to have at least two large organizations in 2008, similar to the Media Fund and America Coming Together from 2004. Tom Matzzie, currently the director of MoveOn, is leaving his post there to head up a new, not yet named outfit, while former Bill Clinton chief of staff John Podesta is involved with a new 527 called the Fund For America.

In the wake of McCain-Feingold and its limits on contributions to the parties, these 527 groups enable wealthy donors to contribute more and money money outside of the official campaigns and party organizations, and end up taking over much of the ground-level work of the campaign.

Appearing over the weekend at a house party in New Hampshire, Mitt Romney revealed that his advisors have been discouraging him from making a "JFK speech" that might directly address any concerns about his Latter-Day Saints religion.

"Is there going to be a special speech? Perhaps, at some point," Romney said. "I sort of like the idea myself. The political advisers tell me no, no, no — it's not a good idea. It draws too much attention to that issue alone."

Such a speech might deal with evangelical discomfort regarding the Mormon Church, but it might not be necessary — he's already been working hard to unite conservative Christians behind his campaign and against Rudy Giuliani, based instead on the issues.

Here's the key story in Iowa: The Des Moines Register reports that John Edwards is lambasting Hillary Clinton's campaign — even comparing her to President Bush — in the wake of two separate reports that the campaign was planting questions at events.

"People expect you to stand in front of them and answer their hard questions - and they expect it to be an honest process," Edwards told reporters. "What George Bush does is plant questions and exclude people from events, and I don't think that's what Democrats want to see in Iowa."

A Hillary spokesman hit right back, comparing Edwards to Bush: "What George Bush does is attack Democrats and divide the country. John Edwards' campaign resembles that more and more every day."

One thing that the exchange of barbs between Hillary and Obama at yesterday's Jefferson-Jackson Dinner showed is that one of the deciding factors in the race will be this: Which candidate do voters think has the magic bullet to defeat the Republicans? Edwards has spent less time claiming he's the one to choose on this score, but it's been a key argument advanced by both Hillary and Obama.

Hillary's case is that she (and Bill) have defeated the Republicans before and hence know what it takes to do it again. As she put it yesterday:

"We must nominate a nominee who has been tested...I know what it’s going to take to win.”

Obama's argument, meanwhile, is basically the liberal blogger argument: He says that you don't look strong by basing your positions on the fear that Republicans will be able to depict you as weak. As he put it yesterday:

"I am running for president because I am sick and tired of Democrats thinking the only way to look tough on national security is by talking and acting and voting like George Bush Republicans."

Clearly both candidates think that this question -- who has the secret formula to defeat the Repubs -- will be a deciding factor. So who's argument is better? Who's right? Which will prove more compelling to voters?

Here's the key story in New Hampshire: The Concord Monitor reports that John McCain, appearing yesterday in the state for Veterans Day, paid tribute to the servicemen and women in Iraq — and in an all too rare acknowledgment from the right, also paid tribute to the American public for supporting the troops as people, regardless of their feelings about the war.

"Some of us here were in another war where America was divided in their support, and that made our challenge of welcoming and bringing home all of our veterans all the harder," said McCain. "I'm so proud that Americans today are undivided in their support of those men and women who are serving."

Here's the key story in South Carolina: The Charleston affiliate of NBC is reporting that the state will see some very high-profile visitors over the next two days, too.

Bill Clinton is speaking today in the first Southern primary state, delivering a speech on his wife's behalf at Trident Tech. Tomorrow, Fred Thompson will give a speech on leadership at The Citadel, the prestigious military academy.

While the spotlight in this campaign has mainly shined on Iowa and New Hampshire, the presidential campaigns clearly have not forgotten about the other early states.

John Edwards will announce today a $400 million plan to increase awareness and treatment for veterans suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder.

Edwards' plan would enable veterans to seek counseling outside the Veterans Administration, increase the number of counselors within the VA system, and even employ family members to help spot signs of PTSD.

CNN has announced another Democratic debate for January 21 — Martin Luther King Day — hosted by the Congressional Black Caucus Institute in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.

Previous efforts had been made by the CBC Institute to host a Dem debate, but the candidates would not agree because the original TV venue was supposed to be Fox News.

The big question is how many candidates will have dropped out by this point, forced out by poor results in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and Nevada.

A new poll from the St. Petersburg Times shows Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani way ahead in their respective primaries in Florida — with Fred Thompson way behind — while the general election is much more unclear.

Hillary has 48% support in the Democratic primary, twice as much as Barack Obama's 24%, with John Edwards at 8%.

Among Republican, Rudy has 36%, Romney 19%, and John McCain 12%. Fred Thompson has only 8%, which if corroborated would indicate that he has fallen way down from earlier polls where he led as the candidate of Southern conservatives.

In general election match-ups, available after the jump, Rudy is able to beat all of the top three Democratic challengers, while John McCain has a slight lead over them, too. Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson lose to all three.

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Speaking to reporters in New Hampshire, Mitt Romney responded to remarks on Friday from John McCain's 95-year old mother Roberta McCain.

The elder McCain said during a TV appearance with her son that any problems Romney might have fixed at the 2002 Olympics were themselves the fault of Mormon corruption. "As far as the Salt Lake City thing, he's a Mormon and the Mormons of Salt Lake City had caused that scandal," she said. "And to clean that up, again, it's not a subject."

"Mrs. McCain's comments?" Romney said yesterday. "Oh I give a pass to anybody that's over 90. They can say whatever they want."

Appearing yesterday on Meet The Press, Barack Obama endorsed raising the cap on taxable income for funding Social Security — a politically treacherous proposition.

Raising the cap by itself would amount to an immediate tax increase on the middle class, but Obama indicated he would support a sort "doughnut hole" proposal to have the tax kick in again at a higher income, skipping over income levels between the current cap and the new threshold.

I think the best way to approach this is to adjust the cap on the payroll tax so that people like myself are paying a little bit more and people who are in need are protected," Obama said.

At a special convention held yesterday in Virginia's First Congressional District, Republicans picked state Delegate Rob Wittman as their nominee for the December 11 special election.

The seat was made vacant in October through the death of Rep. Jo Ann Davis (R), whose husband Chuck Davis unsuccessfully sought the nomination. Ultimately, the contest came down to Wittman and the much more conservative businessman Paul Jost.

At their event this weekend, the Democrats selected Iraq War veteran Philip Forgit. The Republicans are heavily favored to retain the seat, which voted 60% for President Bush in 2004, and 54% for George Allen in the 2006 Senate race.

David Yepsen writes at the Des Moines Register that Barack Obama won the night at the Jefferson-Jackson Dinner, impressing the crowd even at the late hour (past 11 p.m. Central Time) and contrasting himself effectively against Hillary Clinton, who had spoken just before.

"Obama was particularly impressive Saturday night," Yepsen says. "Should he win the Iowa caucuses, Saturday’s dinner will be remembered as one of the turning points in his campaign in here, a point where he laid down the marker and began closing on Clinton, the national frontrunner."

Late Update: Here's a YouTube video of the speech:

The new Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire poll shows Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney continuing to lead their respective primaries.

On the Democratic side, Hillary has 35%, Barack Obama 21%, and John Edwards 15%. This is in line with other polls that are now coming out, showing Hillary ahead but down from her previous highs in the 40's.

On the Republican side, Romney has 32%, Rudy Giuliani 20%, and John McCain 17%.

John McCain's 95-year old mother may have gotten him into some trouble on Friday. During an interview on MSNBC, Roberta McCain dismissed any of Mitt Romney's accomplishments in managing the Salt Lake City Olympics — saying that the scandals were all the fault of Mormon corruption.

"As far as the Salt Lake City thing, he's a Mormon and the Mormons of Salt Lake City had caused that scandal," the elder McCain said. "And to clean that up, again, it's not a subject."

The candidate quickly moved to undo any damage in an interview with the Associated Press. "What she meant was the Olympics were screwed up by the people in Salt Lake when Romney came in and fixed the problems there," he said. "But I know my 95-year-old mother is certainly in favor of Mormons."