Yepsen: Huckabee Could Win Iowa!
Here's something that's sure to fuel the "surging Huckabee" narrative: Influential Iowa columnist David Yepsen says in a column today that Huck can actually be the surprise winner in the state.
Yepsen's basic take is that conservative voters are noticing Huckabee's consistency on their issues and comparing it favorably to frontrunner Mitt Romney's less-than-consistent past, and that Fred Thompson just isn't getting anyone excited. Yepsen also has a lot of good color from the campaign trail demonstrating that Huckabee is connecting with the state's voters.
As Jonathan Martin notes, the Huckabee camp is probably most excited about this closing Yepsen line: "At a time when GOP candidates are falling all over themselves to rekindle the spirit of Ronald Reagan in their party, Huckabee's coming as close as anyone."















I believe that Huckabee would be a strong candidate, but whether he would be the right candidate remains in question.
Could he beat Hillary? Absolutely.
October 30, 2007 10:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yepsen's rhetorical strategems are showing ... this is apparently the moment in the campaign when his auto-scheduler tells him to write pieces reconsidering the merits of someone other than the top two candidates on either side.
October 30, 2007 10:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
He appears be a decent man which is almost a novelty for Republican Presidential candidates this year.
He would be strong against any of the Democratic candidates. He would keep some of the religious types Obama attracts.
A previous poster at this site stated that he damaged the public educational system when governor. He does not believe in evolution. He is strongly anti-abortion. Since he is less known we need a crash course in his weaknesses.
I currently have grave doubts about the intelligence and morality of anyone willing to remain affiliated with the Republican party in its current form.
October 30, 2007 10:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Since he is less known we need a crash course in his weaknesses."
Wayne Dumond.
October 30, 2007 10:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
While I'm sure the "influential" Yepsen is a fine person you might want to reflect on the fact that his influence depends entirely on the degree to which Iowa maintains a prominent place in the consciousness of the political world. He has a deep vested interest (which may express itself entirely subconsciously) in a competitive race in Iowa.
October 30, 2007 10:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Huckleberries surge? How does he reconcile his minister status with 'surging'? Is he a fabulous crystal methodist?
Of course, Huckabee could WINce in Iowa . . . Only he keeps bad state of being 'corn-fed'.
October 30, 2007 10:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
I find Huckabee endearing because he seems game. He's run the humor circut, talking with Colbert and Maher, and he looked comfortable with both men. He isn't embarrassed about taking fundamentalist stances, where it counts. I'd never vote for him, but I can see the attraction.
I doubt he could beat Hillary. He's watched the Clinton machine work for decades, he knows how powerful it was in Arkansas,and now it's at the height of it's power. I won't underestimate the power of her name, money and foot soldiers when I'm placing my bets, next November.
October 30, 2007 10:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
TPM gives us a link to a US News story in today's muck starting the spotlight. It appears that Huckabee had his administraton's computer's hard drives destoyed on the way out the door -- costing the state $350,000, improperly intervened to get a pardon for a rapist who then went on to rape again and then murder his victim, and his family misused the fund for the the Governor's mansion.
October 30, 2007 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
For some reason Huckabee is the latest buzz but he really is a mirage that will fade away after Iowa or maybe New Hampshire if he does well in Iowa.
Huckabee fundraising is in the basement. He only has about $1.7 million in cash on hand. Even if he gets a surge of contributions after a good showing in Iowa he has little time to put together the national organization that will be needed for the February 5 primaries.
It seems like a lot of candidates such as Edwards, Obama, and Huckabee are really expecting a good showing in Iowa to perform miracles for their campaigns. An Iowa bounce can only do so much.
In Huckabee's case, it can't instantly build the national organization that he needs to be competitive after the Iowa-New Hampshire road show ends
October 30, 2007 10:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Question for the forum:
How long will it take for the hired guns (either Democrat or Republican) to start crying, Rape! on Huckabee, in the news cycle?
(My guess: 3-1, two weeks from today.)
October 30, 2007 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's EASY to win in Iowa. Just pretend that the more corn-ethanol subsidies we hand out, the more energy independence we get.
When are the parties going to stop choosing their nominees before we ever get to a state with, uh, a big city?
That said, Huckleberry is probably the only GOP who can hold the Thumper/CEO coalition together one more cycle.
October 30, 2007 10:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not defending Iowa's first-in-the-nation status, but ELi, if you think Iowa is "EASY," you really have no idea what it takes to win in a caucus state.
Incidentally, ethanol plays a very small part in most Dem candidates' stump speeches. The only one I've heard mention it lately is Obama (based on his experience in Illinois). Go figure.
October 30, 2007 10:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think Bill Clinton has already said that Huck is the best speaker in the GOP field.
As for me I both like him for his willingness to call a spade a spade and fear him for some of his fundamentalist views. He doesn't appear to be the foreign policy nut like Rudy is or corporatist that most of the GOP field is but just a typical Baptist minister who believes you should live a certain way and when science conflicts with the bible he will side with the bible no matter the evidence to the contrary.
In Josh's interview with Marcos, Marcos said he didn't think Huck would be anything because he doesn't raise any money and in fact his funding numbers are very far behind the other candidates. That could change with a win in Iowa though. There is a huge amount of GOP money still sitting on the side lines right now.
In my opinion assuming that McCain is really out of it then Huck would be the next best candidate for the GOP since all of the other "Top" candidates have so many skeletons in the closet.
October 30, 2007 11:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Jane:
Wayne DuMond was never pardoned -- DuMond's sentence was commuted from life in prison in 1992 by Jim Guy Tucker, while Bill Clinton was governor and Tucker was serving as acting governor -- Huckabee did announce shortly after he took office that he intended to grant clemency to DuMond, questioning his guilt (I thought it was better to let 10 guilty men free than jail 1 innocent?).
In fact, Huckabee later denied DuMond's clemency request, but the state parole board voted to grant DuMond parole -- he wasn't actually freed until two years later, when the board accepted his parole plan to move out of state -- DuMond unfortuately did murder a woman in Missouri. At least get your facts straight.
October 30, 2007 11:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Steve G.:
Perhaps Bill Clinton is touting Huckabee because he knows Hillary could beat him by the widest margain? I am sure they are both wary of Guilliani because it actually puts NY and CA is play -- and if Obama or Edwards win the nomination, there's no way they win NY against Guilliani -- you've got to play chess at least a couple moves ahead ; )
October 30, 2007 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Before you buy the doe-eyed Huckleberry remember:
Huckabee is firmly in the let's bomb Iran camp and signaled that torture was a-okay with him during the first two televised Republican debates.
Huckabee refuses to criticize his close personal friends who trashed Brownback for being the wrong sorta Christian then had the ball-balls to publically admonish Brownback for not having forgiveness in his heart . . . When his asshole friends did NOT ask for forgiveness.
AND Huckabee's answer for kids without insurance, America needs to diet (said with the same willful abandon as the historical "Let them eat cake.").
I do not know what definition of decent you are using but I can not think of one that allows Huckabee to be squeezed into it . . . Even as dieted down as he presently is.
Oh yeah, corporate conspiritor Clinton will eat Huckleberry alive. She is tougher, meaner and better connected. There is room to question whether or not Clinton would be better for America . . . But Huckabee would not win in that match up. Perot would stand a better chance.
October 30, 2007 11:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
This surge is what i've been thinking since he won the straw poll. Huckabee does come across as a nice guy, he is Southern and a Baptist (anti-abortion, etc.), and has a low enough profile that he could come across as different enough from Bush. Where will the Brownback supporters go? Obviously, McCain and Thompson are toast. This leaves Giuliani where you have Dobson et al. threatening at least to break off, or Romney, who is possible because he will say anything to win but also clearly insincere about everything. I don't think lack of money or team is a big issue actually, it's all about what is said on TV "news", plus maybe Limbaugh. I agree with poster who says there is lots of $ waiting in the wings for any Republican, so if the powers that be think he has a chance, the money will appear (although he has occasionally made a tiny remark questioning slavish worship of corporations). The other question perhaps is is he vicious enough sounding on the anti-foreigner meter (muslims, hispanics) to win the (R) primaries. I think he could absolutely win in the general, certainly against Clinton once he has name recognition. Assuming this paroled rapist thing that people have mentioned is too sleazy to mention, we need to start digging NOW for perhaps bizarro quotes and stances on evolution, science, sex, etc. that he or his associates have taken and repeating ad nauseum. Have there been any juicy moments from any of the debates on video? -- I'm worried that if anything he sounded less cromagnon than the others.
October 30, 2007 11:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
oh yeah, I forgot. If you haven't seen this it's quite funny. A few years old now, from a Canadian satirical news show.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qL1y-X0kIrI
October 30, 2007 11:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Check out my POST/COLUMN on my site about Huckabee:
Mike Huckabee's Behind In Polls - Good News For Democrats
http://www.freewebs.com/coonsey/index.htm?archived=1&page=2
October 30, 2007 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
While on almost every hot-button issue I'm opposite from Huckabee's stand, he's the only one in the Republican stable who's not rabid -- as in frothingly insane. I could see an America with a strong Democratic control of the legislature and Huckabee in the White House as being a far better place than we're in today.
I would even work for Hillary's campaign to keep any of the other Republicans out of the White House. If it comes to Huck or Hill, I'll stick to congressional races. I wonder how many other core Democrats there are like me?
October 30, 2007 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Huckabee doesn't believe in evolution, (and he has said he doesn't) he doesn't believe in cause and effect. That would make a bad strategist for foreign AND domestic policies.
And, no, "God" is not a wild card.
October 30, 2007 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
If it's Huck or any other non-Giuliani that gets the nomination, then
I'd bet a barn or two -- no, not the whole ranch, but not just an out-house either -- that Rudy will be the one running on a third party ticket.
October 30, 2007 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
norbert:
Too sleazy to mention??!! We are still in the United States of America aren't we?
October 30, 2007 5:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sure arrogant, biased pundit-bubble-boy Yepsen would love Huckabee to be the nominee. He could play his typical pundit game of pointing out how "real" and folksy and appropriately Christian and rural and Heartlandy Huckabee is, compared to the Dem nominee which he'll make out to be a bad snooty intellectual not-downhome-enough elitist regardless of who it is.
October 30, 2007 6:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Huckabee is surely surging in Iowa, as surely as Thompson, McCain and even Giuliani are tanking there, and in New Hampshire and elsewhere.
Like Ronald Reagan, he is extremely positive and extra nice on the stump.
The question really is whether Huckabee is TOO nice to be elected. He need to show some fangs and not just the homespuniness that will guarantee him the moniker "Huckabee the VP-wannabee." Even Reagan told protesters to sit down and shut up once in a while, after all.
That said, Bill Clinton is scared to death of him, as are many other Dems, no doubt.
October 30, 2007 7:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
...
gimme a break, just because Rudy
and Mitt come off like nutballs
doesn't mean this lesser nutball
is an attractive choice.
if this guy is the nominee
and the public does a one-to-one
comparison with Hillary or Edwards
or Obama its going to be a rout
..
October 31, 2007 4:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Neither Mitt nor Rudy are "nutballs."
However, the UFO Party has several nutballs running, including all but ONE of their candidates who think it's a swell idea to give illegals drivers licenses, who don't think Iran or the other radical Islamists are threats worth standing up to, and have several new trillion dollar programs they want to implement, all the while calling the Republicans fiscally irresponsible (talk about irony.)
Oh, yeah, and a couple think that UFOs exist - and one of them knows it for a fact.
I really think Huckabee would wipe the floor with Hillary, but I have to say that so would Mitt, Rudy or McCain.
October 31, 2007 9:35 AM | Reply | Permalink