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Virginia GOP To Nominate Senate Candidate Through Convention, Not Primary
At a meeting today of the Virginia Republican Party's central committee, party leaders voted 47-37 to use a convention to nominate their candidate in the 2008 Senate race, rather than a primary.
The move is seen as potentially benefitting former Governor Jim Gilmore, who is running from the right and favored a convention, and hurting Congressman Tom Davis, who is somewhat more moderate and had argued for a primary in order to recruit new Republican voters and increase the nominee's name recognition.
Neither Gilmore nor Davis have officially declared their Senate candidacies yet, but are expected to announce their plans some time after this November's legislative elections. Former Democratic Governor Mark Warner is heavily favored to pick up the open seat.
"Former Democratic Governor Mark Warner is heavily favored to pick up the open seat."
As is typically the case, the TPM editing is exaggerated on how things are for the Dems. While I know that Governor Warner has held some hefty leads recently for John Warner's seat, I think that saying he's 'heavily favored' is actually an exaggeration. No Democrat is heavily favored for anything in Virginia, at least not state-wide. I remember how Warner held huge leads for his gubernatorial race in 2001 and ended up winning by a much thinner margin than originally anticipated.
While Mark Warner is a 'top-tier' recruitment, former Governor Gilmore is actually also a very strong recruitment, too. But all we ever here about is how wonderful things are for the Dems.
October 13, 2007 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's why it is good news for Dems: because conventions make real enmities, while primaries carry the consolation that a whole bunch of voters actually weighed in. The one and only time my Republican Congressional district managed to sneak in a Democrat was due to a large Republican committee being on the losing end of a nominating convention and sitting on their hands during the general.
Bad news for Dems: The Rs are doing this not only to maintain the grip of the right wing, but possibly also to keep Tom Davis in the House; if his seat were to be open, Dems would definitely have a much better shot. We still might get rid of the guy, but we'd actually be favored in an open-seat situation. So the RCCC is, I'm sure, pleased about this convention decision too.
@Steve: granted it's more than a year out, but if you can't characterize 64-36 leads as 'heavily favored', when can you do it?
October 13, 2007 6:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Speaking of Virginia I was just perusing the ABC-WaPo Virginia poll that you (Eric) linked to yesterday and the results of the would/wouldn't vote for [presidential candidate] question caught my eye. I thought the numbers were pretty interesting both in terms of a) how closely they resemble the reults on the same question of their last national poll and b) how it must suck to be a Republican this year if Virginia starts looking that much like the rest of the country.
Below are the "definitely would vote for" minus the "definitely wouldn'ts" for each of the top seven primary contenders in VA and nationally. In both cases the "Don't Knows" aren't very significant till you get down toward the bottom of the list so most everyone else lands in the "would consider voting for" column in most cases.
In Virginia:
Hillary Clinton -14 (30-44)
Barack Obama -14 (21-35)
John Edwards -26 (16-42)
Rudy Giuliani -30 (15-45)
John McCain -28 (14-42)
Mitt Romney -44 (9-53)
Fred Thompson -36 (12-48)
Nationwide:
Hillary Clinton -11 (30-41)
Barack Obama -18 (21-39)
John Edwards -27 (16-43)
Rudy Giuliani -27 (17-44)
John McCain -32 (13-45)
Mitt Romney -49 (8-57)
Fred Thompson -44 (10-54)
No wonder they don't want to have any elections.
October 13, 2007 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is rather bad news for Democrats actually, as Davis will maybe now choose to stay in the House. VA-11 will surely lean heavily Democratic if it opens up...
October 13, 2007 6:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
At least this makes it much more likely that Democrats get the seat considering that Davis is supposed to be the strongest Republican. Not that Warner needs the help - VA-Sen is the only seat that is ranked "likely take-over" in these recent Senate rankings.
October 13, 2007 6:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
The issue is not that who the jack_holes choose or how that idiot will do in the election . . .
The Republican leadership just stiffled the voice of their own people.
The Republican leadership just stiffled the voice of their people with forethought and specific intention to do malice to the ability of their people to choose their elected representative.
The Republican leadership just ripped the beating heart outta democratic-republicanism AND . . .
Rather than be horrified, you folk are arguing about the impact on the election. Talk about missing the picture show.
They have already won.
October 13, 2007 8:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey Richard, unclench, guy. I'm guessing you're not a Virginia voter.
Conventions are publicized in the paper, so no one is actually being denied a chance to weigh in on the nominee question.
Because we have non-partisan registration (i.e., you can't register by party even if you wanted to), to take part in a party convention you have to sign a piece of paper going in that says you're a Republican [or Democrat, except we don't nominate in conventions very often anymore] and won't vote against the party nominee in the general.
Unenforceable, in other words.
So where exactly is the stifling? Of course there's more participation in a primary than in a convention, so smart, strong parties do it that way.
Primaries in Virginia are also open, so a Republican primary is susceptible to participation by Democratic and independent voters. I can imagine a situation in which VA-11 Dems might turn out to vote for Davis in a primary in order to open up his seat. Are those the voters whose voices you're worried about being stifled?
October 13, 2007 10:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
As someone who actually lives in Va's 11th District, represented by Tom Davis, let me share with you a bit of what he faces here in Northern Virginia.
For Tom Davis to win a Senate seat in 2008, (or for any other GOP candidate to win a statewide race) he/she must do BOTH of two things: 1) He/she must turn out huge numbers downstate, AND 2) he/she must neutralize the potentially devastating democratic vote in NoVa.
Of all 11 VA Representatives in last year's election, Tom Davis, in spite of being a well-funded and capable campaigner, won with only 56% of the vote. He barely won his race against a relatively unknown, underfunded and inexperienced opponent. In 2006, Davis' narrow 56% victory was the LOWEST win percentage of all VA's congressional races.
That's important because not only is Davis relatively unknown downstate, his poor showing in 2006, raises serious questions about his ability to do well in his own and surrounding NoVa districts. Again that's going to be hard for Davis, but really, it is only symptomatic of a more serious challenge facing the GOP statewide...
The unavoidable fact is that NoVa now trends Democratic. Arlington and Alexandria are reliably Democratic, and the suburbs inside the beltway trend Democratic. For the last several statewide elections, many of the once-solid Republican outer suburbs (which include parts of the 11th District) have been in play. Simply put, the GOP may very well lose the 11th District even if Davis runs for re-election!
That would be a VERY bad thing for the GOP, for should that happen, it means that Northern Virginia Democrats will have finally gained the upper hand in the statewide political contests...Simply by virtue of the region's explosive population growth over the last two decades, producing increasingly Democratic votes, NoVa will be able to dominate statewide races providing the Democratic Party with predictable margins thus neutralizing downstate votes.
That would mean a HUGE shift in VA's current political landscape, and it must TERRIFY the GOP party bosses downstate who surely recognize this, but it is a trend which they can do little to stop. One gets the feeling they're conceding this fact and that they're now forced to risk Davis' 11th District seat simply to protect GOP strongholds downstate.
October 14, 2007 2:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
One corretion to LiveOak:
I am pretty sure, that Tom Davis' winning margin was not the closest in Virginia in 2006. Thelma Drake won something like 52-48 against Phil Kellam, that was a high-profile race.
That doesn't mean that Tom Davis would not be vulnerable to Leslie Byrne or Gerry Connelly, were he to run for reelection...
October 14, 2007 6:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks Michael,
The statement should have read:
In 2006, Davis' narrow 56% victory was the LOWEST win percentage of all NORTHERN VA's congressional races.
Indeed Drake in VA-02 had a smaller win margin.
So much for proof reading at 2AM!
Cheers.
October 14, 2007 7:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
as previously pointed out, gilmore getting the nomination would probably keep davis's seat in GOP hands but -- correct me if I'm wrong, Virginians -- M. Warner would have an easier race against Gilmore than he would against Davis.
October 14, 2007 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
You know just a few years back, Republicans leaders were confidently predicting the obsolescence of the Democratic party into a permanent minority, pointing out that the lion's share of significant population growth in the country was happening in their own stronghold states. When John Judis and Ruy Teixeira argued in The Emerging Democratic Majority that as those red states grew they were also beginning to trend more Democratic, it was roundly pooh-poohed in conservative circles as wishful thinking. Oops.
October 14, 2007 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
If I lived in Va. and was a democratic party member there: I WOULD BE ON THE BILL BOARDS AND AIR WAVES SCREAMING THAT "REPUBLICANS DONT WANT PEOPLE CHOOSING THE CANADATE" and then I would follow it up with a free Va. from the RED MENACE campaign.
plus a drive to put all republicans on the ballot even the ones no one likes so if its a choice between a democrat choosen by a primary vote and 2-3-10 whatever republicans so the voice of the people could decide the canadate in the general election from a packed field of course the diluted republican vote would turn this state from a RED MENACE state into a solid TRUE BLUE AMERICAN state.
Yep it woyuld be easy to show the people of that state how the democratic process was only for pepole who believed in democracy vs. the lock step neo-thug party ways of giving you only officailly annointed by the party bosses choice.
democracy: either you believe in freedom and the democratic proces or your a REPUGTHUG.
let freedom ring; from the automated phone banks telling you which party wants you/people to decide and which party is communist/dictatorial in its official you dont get to choose (private/corporate/christian terrorist) party canadate.
October 14, 2007 6:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Steve -
Do you live in Virginia? Have you ever lived in Virginia? The word "Gilmore" is political poison. In fact, I'd argue that most of Warner's popularity stems from the electorate's reaction to 4 years of Gilmore. His nomination would be a disaster.
That being said - Republicans CANNOT (and should not) nominate a northern virginian against Warner. Despite their recent winning streak downstate, folks need to remember two things:
1. Downstate voters switched to the GOP a mere 10 years ago. Many were life long democrats...
2. Warner runs exceptionally well downstate.
The Republicans would have been smarter to nominate someone like McDonnell of Eric Cantor...
October 15, 2007 1:00 PM | Reply | Permalink