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Report: GOPer Tom Davis Won't Run For Senate
The Washington Post reports that Congressman Tom Davis (R-VA) will not be running for the open Senate seat in 2008, and could potentially announce his intentions as soon as this week. Davis' chances had been hurt by the state party's decision to make their nomination through a convention, rather than a primary, a decision that would heavily favor the more conservative former Governor Jim Gilmore.
The remaining question is whether Davis will seek re-election to his seat representing Fairfax County, which has become a swing or even Democratic-leaning area. Davis' announcement could be delayed until after the state legislative elections in two weeks, in which his Davis' wife is facing a tough race for re-election as a state Senator.
The Democrats are heavily favored to pick up the Senate seat, with former Governor Mark Warner as their candidate.
This will have huge consequences on VA-11 indeed, where Democrats are no longer going to walk away with the seat! Full analysis here.
Campaign Diaries's House Ranking had the race at "lean takeover in September" but it was downgraded last week after it became clear that Davis would not get out after all.
October 23, 2007 10:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Daniel's got it right. I live here in 11, and I'm curious to see who the blue team puts up as competition.. and if it will depend on Davis' running or not running.
It's been a fairly smooth run for Davis every two years despite the trending of the Fairfax County area. I'm sure it would have impacted us if Davis did -not- run, but if he is, it's a much more interesting race.
Who knows? Maybe I'll run for the seat in a few years and you can all gab about me! :D
October 23, 2007 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Leslie Byrne has already announced. There are rumors that Gerry Connolly may get in as well; no idea whether the chances of that will be affected by this news or not.
October 23, 2007 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Andrew Hurst ran in 2006 without the back of pac money and still pulled in 44% of the vote against a supposedly popular incumbent. He's smart, he's a worker, his heart's in the right place and everybody likes him.
Run, Andy, run!
I live in the 11th District, also -- in the Prince William County end.
October 23, 2007 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Despite opposing Davis and the GOP, you have to feel a bit sorry for for Davis. He has skillfully and successfully garnered an image of being a moderate in an increasingly blue Northern Virginia, while maintaining his very conservative credentials elsewhere.
He's got to feel like the second best player in the NBA during Michael Jordan's prime.
October 23, 2007 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
pol's point about Andrew Hurst is well-taken. '08's going to be worse in VA-10 than it was in '06. Davis is beatable. If Chap Petersen beats his wife in the state senate race in that district, smell the blood in the water.
Unfortunately, Andy probably won't be able to beat big guns like Byrne or Connolly in a primary.
Currently live in VA-10, soon to live in VA-11 (Fairfax County).
October 23, 2007 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Davis runs again, he'll win. I used to live in the 11th and not only was Tom Davis pretty middle-of-the-road politically (especially as Republicans go), but he was responsive to constituent mail and in favor of DC voting. He'd be hard to beat.
October 23, 2007 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
While it's still along way away, I wouldn't count Gilmore out. Virginia is still a majority GOP state.
October 23, 2007 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
VA projects to at most 51% GOP next year, Steve, on the national 1% per year Democratic trend.
October 23, 2007 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've read that Gen. Pace is being encouraged to run for Warner's seat.
October 23, 2007 9:42 PM | Reply | Permalink