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Poll: Strongest Dems For New Mexico Senate Race Aren't Running
A new SurveyUSA poll of New Mexico tests a wide range of Democratic and Republican candidates for Senate — those who might announce they're running, those who have already announced they're running, and those who have already announced that they're not running — and here are the results:
Udall (D) 55%, Pearce (R) 37%
Richardson (D) 60%, Pearce (R) 36%
Pearce (R) 56%, Chávez (D) 35%
Pearce (R) 54%, Madrid (D) 38%
Pearce (R) 58%, Wiviott (D) 23%
Udall (D) 56%, Wilson (R) 38%
Richardson (D) 62%, Wilson (R) 35%
Wilson (R) 48%, Chávez (D) 44%
Wilson (R) 46%, Madrid (D) 45%
Wilson (R) 51%, Wiviott (D) 34%
The strongest Democrats in the poll are Bill Richardson and Tom Udall, who have already said they're not running, while the others are all struggling. Bill Richardson is committed to the presidential race, so this poll might cause the DSCC to ask Udall to reconsider. On the other hand, the others could still improve their standings through a vigorous campaign.
Also worth noting is that Congressman Steve Pearce, a very right-wing Republican, does much better than Congresswoman Heather Wilson, who has already announced her candidacy. It could be that Pearce is a familiar name in the state who is viewed somewhat positively, while Wilson may have been damaged by the U.S. Attorney scandal. The poll should probably give some encouragement to Pearce if he's looking for reasons to enter the race.
Also, the poll did not test Democratic Lt. Governor Diane Denish, who has reportedly been looking at the race.
So frustrating! Maybe Udall will reconsider... Didn't Brown do a "I won't run... I will..." in 2004?!
Campaign DiariesOctober 8, 2007 10:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indeed, Sherrod Brown did say he wasn't running, and then got in later.
Then again, that led to the whole mess of Paul Hackett getting in, then being muscled out by the Dem establishment. It was a huge headache that could have been avoided if Brown had just gotten in cleanly in the first place.
October 8, 2007 11:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
To preempt questions on Udall, i gave this explanation. Now, this does not mean I AGREE with Udall's action. On the ocntrary. I think he should run.
Actually, I think Richardson should run, but he he's aiming for the President for the VP. I think he should just aim for the Senate, but he has personal ambitions...
"I just want point out that the Appropriations Committee is one of the most POWERFUL committees, if not the MOST, powerful committees, in the House.
The Aprriopriations Committee handles who and what gets money. The Appropriations Committees almost overlaps with every other committees jurisdiction. It deals with almost the Executive, Administrative, Regulatory, and Judicial services of the government, who look to protect the amount of money they have and desire more money for the future. It deals with State Government interests as well. It also deals with the interest with non-profits nd for-profit groups.
In other words, on the Appropriations Committee, you have a mic, you have power, you control the money, almost everyone is beholden to you, and everyone else must talk to you, lest they want you to remove their funding.
That's a lot of power. An Appropriations seat is probably even better than most subcommittee chairmanships in most other committees. A Sub-committee Chairmanship on the Appropriations Committeee practically means you are almost equivalent to bieng a Committee Chairman, oter than Appropriations Chairman."
October 8, 2007 11:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
As for the Pearce strong showing, here's what I had to say at my blog:
Pearce doing better than Wilson is a bit of a surprise to me. I would have thought Wilson's "moderate" image (deserved or not) would help her in a match-up against a Democrat more than Pearce's hard-right stances. But Pearce's far-right wing stances may not be as well-known to voters in northern and central New Mexico as to those in his district; Las Cruces is far from the other two districts.
October 8, 2007 11:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
These polls are definitely amenable to change. For Pearce it's ID only and few in the North actually agree with his politics. I see him having a very difficult time staying competetive in the north. But if he wants to use these numbers to jump in the race, I'm all for it: he'll probably win the primary.
Not that he should be taken for granted, but between him and Wilson, I'd prefer to go up against him. But a Wilson departure from NM-1 probably opens that district up for a long-standing Dem seat. Not so much in NM-2, which will be tough for Dems in the forseeable future.
October 8, 2007 11:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
richardson will either be VP or be in hillary's cabinet so of course he has no desire to run for senate.
Udall needs to get in. this is his chance right here
October 9, 2007 7:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
As a NM resident my 2 cents is this poll is near worthless, reflecting only name recognition and voters vague ill-informed awareness of candidates' politics. Most folks in the state out of Pearce's district, and many in it, don't know what a wing-nut he is, most people out of ABQ know little of Chavez except that he's mayor of our largest crime riddled city with many many problems and corrupt pols (or so our local media constantly informs us), no one knows who or what Wiviott is, nor do many in or out of Udall's district know how left/progressive he is: for instance, in 2004 I phoned registered Dems for Kerry from Dem SF headquarters and had many say they were voting Bush 'cause Kerry's a liar/traitor/soft-on-terrorism etc., but they *loved* Udall, saying "Of course I'm voting for Tom!".
October 9, 2007 9:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Marty is a disingenuous, vindictive quisling. His modus operandi for wielding power is better suited to the Republican Party. Marty LOST a statewide election (for Governor), while Mayor of Albuquerque, to a then UNKNOWN Gary Johnson. Can you say PHONY.
The only candidate worse than Mayor Marty would be Patsy Madrid, who just lost (2006) to Heather Wilson, in a District that has a slight Democratic advantage in registration. Nice lady, but not ready for primetime.
Many people fantasize about a Richardson candidacy, but Big Bill believes he should be President. The deadline for filing (to run for Domenici's old seat) is February 12th, 2008. Look for an announcement from Big Bill on February 6th (the day after the new Super Tuesday) if he is going to run for Senate.
Tom Udall, in the long run, would be the best Senator for New Mexico. He has an extensive record on energy, veterans affairs, and foreign policy that is actually center left. (Big Bill had this seat prior to being tapped by Clinton for the UN Ambassadorship) Wingnuts might want to paint him as a far left candidate but Udall is more a pragmatic Liberal. He understands how to get things done without all the inflammatory rhetoric. Go look at Udall's Congressional website and you see an impressive resume of accomplishment in elected office.
October 9, 2007 10:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why the confidence that Richardson would be VP? Hasn't he not made it off the short-list for VP twice already? Sec of State perhaps, but I don't see how his not-ready-for-primetime campaign would surmount his pre-existing vetting problems. Frankly, any Dem who'd put him on the ticket would plummet in my estimation thanks to Richardson's please-don't-put-this-man-anywhere-near-actual-power performance thus far.
October 9, 2007 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
My question is . . . why didn't these polls include Lt. Gov. Diane Denish? She is apparently considering running for the Senate-- more info here: http://haussamen.blogspot.com/2007/10/dont-discount-her-denish-seriously.html
I think Denish would be a very strong candidate-- the best option in the absence of Richardson and Udall. She is a statewide-elected official, very popular, and she would neutralize any advantage Heather Wilson might have with female voters. I hope she jumps in!
October 9, 2007 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wrote a long and thoughtful letter to Udall asking him to reconsider. I urge all New Mexicans to do so.
October 9, 2007 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink