To crown Clinton's Iowa day, she was endorsed today by George McGovern.

This lead suggests Obama and Edwards will have a lot of work to do to derail Clinton, but they have to do so in Iowa or they run the risk of seeing Clinton run away with the nomination. The internals of the poll suggests Clinton's lead is solid (she gets 48% among those who are sure of their choice). As for Romney, the internals of the poll show his lead isn't that strong, but to his credit he has maintained this for months now.

Daniel, 53% say they can change their mind; of the 33% that are sure of their choice, Clinton has 48% of this 33%.

Race is tight in Iowa, that's what we do know for sure.

Here's why I think Hillary is going to run away with this thing. Every time Hillary is in the lead, supporters of the other candidates start pointing out the obvious caveats or talking about pro-Hillary bias. When Hillary is behind, her supporters take it seriously. It was the same when Hillary beat Obama in Q3 fundraising. When Q1 and Q2 had Obama in the fundraising lead, team Hillary ramped up their efforts not only raising more money but getting more first time donors as well.

Can someone explain whether Republican respondents who fit the criteria were allowed to tally in the Democratic half of the poll as well as their own? and vice-versa.

I guess I understand why the margin of error note is so important to those supporters of "not-Hillary."

However, unlike Obama and especially Edwards who has lived there along with the basket containing all his eggs, they need to beat Hillary by a decent margin to even stall the inevitability train a bit.

If she finishes first or a strong second or even third within a few points of the winner(s), New Hampshire and South Carolina are right behind and she's leading solidly there.

The fact that she's showing a lead (outside the margin of error even), has got to be of concern to the Obama team and devastating news for Edwards.

IWW - WTF with that "sweet young thing" thing? Is stereotyping a woman in a cynical way your way of rallying people to your preferred candidate? Good luck with that. Hey, there's a black man running. What would be the acceptable equivalent funny stereotype one might use to be equally as clever?

It was a reference to the McGovern endorsement - "Ladies First." I overlooked the fact Daniel had omitted the text of the endorsement. Not the most compelling reason, imho, and uncomfortably reminiscent of the children's story where the character constantly demanded "Ladies First, Ladies First, let the tender sweet young thing so first." I believe she was eventually eaten by a crocodile, though I may have the denouement confused with another children's story.

Incidentally, colon, neither the lead over Edwards nor that over Obama is properly termed outside the margin of error. In order to determine the margin on a lead, you have to take into the account the margins on both candidates -- so the margin of error of error for a lead is somewhat less than double the MOE for the survey as a whole. Exactly how much less is something I gather that professionals debate. Pollster.com had something on the question if you want to get into the mechanics.

colon,

Sorry about the inexplicable reference -- my bad. I forgot exactly which DM Register article was being discussed, I'm afraid, and just assumed from Daniel's comment that the McGovern endorsement "Ladies First" line had been described. If I find any other childrens' book lines applicable to other candidates, I promise (threaten?) to offer them up too.

Agree -- I don't think it's good news for either Edwards or Obama. But Iowa is notoriously hard to poll and touchy about "frontrunners." If I were in camp Hillary, I might even welcome a couple polls before the caucus NOT showing HRC in the lead so that my supporters could feel somewhat embattled. Just a thought.

pacpallez's story is an example of why you need to calculate both MOEs in assessing leads. Most Rasmussen polls have about a 4 point MOE. That means for Hillary to shift down 4 points, and Obama to shift up 4 points is still within the margins on each candidate. So, while the 8 point shift here may look "dramatic," it is barely at the edge of statistical relevance. It isn't meaningless, but it means far less than some people want it to...

While i am sitting here reading this---I hear---for the 75th time this week, that Hillary has a 33 point lead in the only poll the national media ever quotes.

Can anyone tell me anything about how the Rasmussen daily tracking poll is taken, and why it would be less worth quoting?

I support Obama---but I think there is an inevitability about Hillary. Over 50 percent of her electability and fitness for being president is strongly related to Bill. He was at best, an average president----which makes him look spectacular compared to Bush.

Even if she thinks the guy's wrong, she doesn't need to treat him like he's invisible.

Marc said "I'm starting to get the feeling that this nomination contest may be over before it starts."

While you may just be allowing the "Hillary is Envitable" media drumbeat to determine the outcome, I understand your perspective on this.

It is important that the large number of independents, progressives and thinking Democrats who will never support Hillary or accept her as nominee or president start to think about contengencies. Continuing to support Edwards, Obama, Richardson, Biden, etc. as reasonable choices is important. But if Hillary is nominated, we need a strategy to assure that Hillary, Romney or Rudy do not become president and continue the Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton policies. What is the best alternative: Draft Gore, a Bloomburg-Hagel third party run? I'm very afraid that if Hillary is the Demcractic nominee and there is no progressive alternative, a Republican will be the next president. It is a fact that Hillary is too polarizing to be acceptable for many many many voters.

For the love of God. Would someone please put up a "not-Hillary" site. Here's a strategy for you Edwards/Obama 08' or even Obama/Edwards 08'. These guys need to do something before it's too late.