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Poll: Hillary Leads Dems In North Carolina, GOP Race Close
A new poll of North Carolina by the Civitas Institute, a statewide conservative think thank, shows Hillary Clinton leading in the state's Democratic primary, while the Republican race is a close call between Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson:
Democrats:
Clinton 31%
Edwards 18%
Obama 18%Republicans:
Giuliani 21%
Thompson 19%
Romney 16%
McCain 9%
Since the group's last poll in September, this represents an 11-point jump for Hillary among Democrats, and a six-point decline for Fred Thompson on the Republican side.
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Pointless.
October 19, 2007 10:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
A comparison of the age distribution graph on this poll's sample to the actual state statistics for 2006 shows that this poll isn't worth crap. It's ridiculously heavily skewed toward old people.
http://www.jwpcivitasinstitute.org/files/2007-October-Poll-ACROBAT.pdf
http://demog.state.nc.us/
Age group/Poll Sample/Real demo.
18-34 4% 32%
35-44 13% 30%
45-54 21% 19%
55-64 26% 14%
65+ 37% 16%
I assumed that their percentages were based on % of total sample and calculated the real numbers accordingly.
October 19, 2007 10:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Great post NCSteve; it's refreshing to see an analytical, constructive comment in a poll posting (or posting for that matter). To build upon the census information you've provided, I decided to look into NC youth voter turnout, to see if the poll really was misrepresenting the true numbers.
Quick Facts about Young Voters in North Carolina: The Midterm Election Year 2006 -- Updated June '07(pdf)
...
Keep in mind, these are midterm election numbers, not primary or general national election values. Youth voter turnout has been trending upwards between 2000-2006 following almost two decades of steady decline, a good sign for those candidates who have strong youth support.
http://www.civicyouth.org/PopUps/PR_07_Registration.pdf
I'll have to look closer, but I recall seeing numerous polls showing Clinton's support nationally significantly higher among the older 45+ demographic (especially older women). I'll try to track down these numbers asap. In other words, this poll seems to be worse than usual.
October 19, 2007 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here's some indication of Hillary's support base (statistics from recent Iowa poll):
Candidate preferences by gender, age
John Edwards:
Male 27%
Female 20%
Hillary Clinton:
Male 21%
Female 34%
Barack Obama:
Male 25%
Female 21%
JE:
18-44 17%
45-64 27%
65+ 20%
HC:
18-44 27%
45-64 26%
65+ 36%
BO:
18-44 33%
45-64 23%
65+ 11%
Iowa poll of 399 likely democratic caucus participants...conducted October 1-3 (no MOE mentioned)
While the exact values certainly can't be considered an accurate reflection of national support, I imagine the noticeable trends by age & gender in Iowa likely appear nationwide.
October 19, 2007 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not but what people in NC aren't 55% more likely than the 18-34 group to have an opinion on damn near anything you ask them about and to share it with you whether you ask them or not.
October 19, 2007 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Correction: Not but what people in the 65+ group in NC aren't 55% more likely than the 18-34 group to have an opinion on damn near anything you ask them about and to share it with you whether you ask them or not.
October 19, 2007 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ohioans are tired of Ivy League elitists shipping their jobs to China.
October 19, 2007 8:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
North Carolinians are tired of Ivy League elitists insulting their intelligence.
October 19, 2007 8:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Everyone is tired of simplistic one line posts.
October 19, 2007 10:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Short thread... I guess most people did not buy into the "stats"...
DCS
October 20, 2007 5:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Despite Steve's assertions, the poll is based on likely voters, not the population.
Maybe instead of looking at demographics, Steve would like to pull voting statistics on the age groups who actually show up and vote.
No, 55+ don't make up 55% of the population, but they do actually make up 55% of people who vote.
Last I checked, elections were decided based on who votes, not what the general population thinks. As such, this poll is very accurate in reflecting that.
As much as the left likes to hype the "youth vote" the plain fact is, they don't show up. It is still the older people who are more likely to vote.
October 22, 2007 9:10 AM | Reply | Permalink