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Poll: Congress' Approval Low, But People Likely To Re-Elect Incumbents
The latest Fox News poll illustrates the problem of reading too much into Congress' political fortunes on the basis of the institution's overall approval.
On the one hand, the approval rating stands at 25%, with 54% disapproval. But on the other hand, the poll asked this question: "How about your representative — do you think he or she deserves to be reelected? The result was 50% in favor of reelecting the incumbents, versus only 29% who want somebody news.
In short, it'll take a lot more than even the current disapproval to actually cause major shifts in the House. The current approval/disapproval ratings appear more to be a product of general frustration with the status quo than any desire to change who gets sent there.
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I, for one, would be happy to elect elect almost anyone other than the incumbent in my Congressional District. Howard Berman is ineffectual beyond belief and happily runs at full tilt from any fight. Balloting on any contraversal billing is likely to see him absent. Hell, he is on Foreign Affairs and he was one of six Congresspersons missing during last war funding vote.
Unforunately, in the last election cycle, DEMs ran him unopposed and the REPs ran a raving idiot and a guy facing fraud issues one their side.
If my wife had threatened to kill me and divorce me (Yes, in that order), I'd run against his useless ass . . . And still might.
October 25, 2007 9:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Berman is not one of the best Dems in Congress. He's a shill for the entertainment industries, a big fan of the DMCA, and an enemy of high tech. But I'm not sure anyone can do better in his district, and I would hate to see it represented by a lunatic (which is all you get in California these days on the GOP side).
Still, more power to you in the Dem primary if you can get the funding and withstand the onslaught of Hollywood money directed against you. You'd have a lot of friends in the BoingBoing.net crowd, and you might be able to get some Silicon Valley cash.
October 25, 2007 9:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Berman was elected with little more than $100K last time around . . . Hmmmm
October 25, 2007 10:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um, I don't mean to be a stick in the mud, but isn't the real story on page 4:
Candidate 10-23/24 10-9/10
HRC 42% 50%
BHO 25% 18%
JE 13% 11%
JB 2% 1%
900 RV, Nationwide, +/-3%. It's only one data point (and the other caevats about polls)but isn't there possibly a story here? You sure thought so a couple of weeks ago.
http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2007/10/poll_hillary_way_ahead_and_more_people_think_shell_win.php
October 25, 2007 10:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
The other advantage for House Dems is that the race-by-race analysis simply favors them. Check out these recent House Rankings.
October 25, 2007 10:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lots of other congressional news today:
- NC Dems are finding a new candidate, while in Nebraska Fahey appears reluctant to run.
- In the House, Patricia Madrid is NOT running for the House.
October 25, 2007 11:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, the real news is a tightening of the Democratic race or is it? We'll have to get more polls to see if this is an outlier or a trend.
Other tidbits--Giuliani's support doesn't appear that strong--and there was an interesting question on who you would you trust "in a extremely serious"
crisis. GOP 38%, Democrats 37% if you add up the candidate percentages. Nearly a tie, so maybe a terrorist attack
may not be so devestating to the Dems chances.
October 26, 2007 1:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
To be honest, I think that the author of this blog is just so optimistic for the Dems that he interprets any poll as good news for them. He thinks Hillary is doing just great, but she's actually not doing very well, all considered.
October 26, 2007 4:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Congressional districts have been gerrymandered to protect incumbents, and the result has been a Congress that ignores its constituents and dances to the tune of corporate special interests. The current Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton status quo, with grid-lock in a do-nothing Congress, protects record, windfall profiteeting by banks, health care and drug companities, big oil, the rapidly growing un-monitored defense contract industry.
Unless Congressional incumbents are challenged in their party primaries, nothing will change. Unless incompetent, dishonest incumbents with high seniority are unseated, we will have a do-nothing Congress for the foreseeable future. If a Republican or Hillary is elected president, it is more of the same. Coportions love it; citizens, employees and consumers will continue to suffer greatly.
October 26, 2007 8:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here in my district I'd happily vote for anyone not named Tom Tancredo. So far the Dems haven't fielded anyone against him, to the great frustration of many. After the very HARD run last election, with NO help from Rahm Emanuel and the DCCC, most of us are still too dispirited. As far as the Senate, Udall's got a pretty good chance of taking Allard's seat. There are a fair number of folks who are disgusted to see that we may have elected our very own Joe Lieberman in John Salazar, but he's not up for another 3 years. Ah well, plenty of time to find a Dem with real convictions by then..
October 26, 2007 9:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Now you're quoting FOX polls. What next National Enquirer polls? Why would you believe FOX?
October 26, 2007 2:14 PM | Reply | Permalink