Top GOP Official In Iowa: Huckabee Has 30 Percent Chance Of Winning State
Below we noted that top Iowa columnist David Yepsen offered more grist for the "Huckabee surging" narrative by claiming in his column this morning that conservative GOP candidate Mike Huckabee has an outside shot at winning in Iowa.
So we called up a top Iowa GOP official to test Yepsen's theory. And this official went further, saying in an interview that he thought Mike Huckabee has a 30 percent chance of winning his state.
"Can he win Iowa? Oh, yeah," Chuck Laudner, the executive director of the Iowa state GOP, told Election Central. "He's running in a strong second position right now. It's not out of the realm of possibility at all."
Asked to assess Huckabee's chances of winning, Laudner said: "I'd say somewhere around 30 percent."
When I asked Laudner to explain Huckabee's surge, he said that undecided voters and former supporters of other GOPers who have dropped out of the race were gravitating towards Huckabee. "He's picking up Brownback and Thompson supporters and getting undecideds that have been waiting for candidate to emerge," Laudner says.
Laudner describes Huckabee's supporters as "social conservatives" and members of the "faith community," which, he says, make up the "bulk of our caucus goers." Laudner declined to discuss whether he thought that frontrunner Mitt Romney's past inconsistency on social issues was fueling the Huckabee boomlet.
What does Huckabee need to do to win? He needs to prove to more Iowans that he can raise money and win in post-Iowa states. "His number one issue in Iowa is proving he's viable after Iowa," Laudner says. "That's his number one hill to climb."
Stranger things have happened.
Comments (13)
Jake D. wrote on October 30, 2007 2:38 PM:Rather than Guiliani/Huckabee, with Guiliani/Romney, Rudy gets all the same votes AND all of Mitt's cash!
Blue in IA wrote on October 30, 2007 2:45 PM:Well, if Huckabee can stop making the occasional semi-sane comment on immigration, he would be in a position to score an IowaRep trifecta: extreme Christianism, FAIR tax, and keep the coloreds out! I think that about sums up the "Presidential Help Wanted" Ad here on the Republican side. Rocking with the ghost of the Big Bopper is a plus too.
MarcNYC wrote on October 30, 2007 3:29 PM:Since he doesn't believe in evolution, has anybody asked Huckabee if he believes in gravity? After all, gravity is "only a theory".
Zandru wrote on October 30, 2007 4:44 PM:As far as I've observed, Huckabee is the only sane one in the field of Republican wanna-bes. He also doesn't seem quite as mean or mean-spirited as the rest.
Ron Paul is getting a lot of undeserved kudos from lefties because of his Iraq position, but bear in mind: he's a libertarian. He'll sound perfectly reasonable, then suddenly start raving about how we've got to get the world on the gold standard, etc.
If anyone could make the Republicans look less like total loons, it would be Huckabee.
daniel155 wrote on October 30, 2007 5:09 PM:There is just not enough time for Huckabee even if he wins in Iowa. He has less than a month after Iowa to raise enough money and build organizations to effectively compete in the February 5 primaries. That is a tall order.
Currently Huckabee fundraising is poor. His contributions are so low that even taking matching funds would not bring in much of a bankroll.
He is currently on a fundraising drive to raise one millions dollars in one month. The major campaigns use that much in tip money.
Unless Huckabee is running for vice-president or a cabinet position, all this talk promoting Huckabee's prospects in Iowa or anywhere else by Yepsen or anyone else is just blowing smoke.
Seth H. wrote on October 30, 2007 5:36 PM:Huckabee's doing just well enough to be an excellent VP. If Rudy gets the nomination, it's either Huckabee or Brownback and Huckabee definitely has more legitimacy. If Romney gets the nomination, well, who knows really... If Romney went with a Huckabee then no one actually desiring reform in the Republican party would be pleased at all. That might be kind of nice. Perhaps they'd vote democrat...
Marc wrote on October 30, 2007 5:40 PM:I think he'll be the vice-presidential nominee and debate Democratic vice-presidential nominee Sen. Evan Bayh, Gov. Ted Strickland or ret. Gen. Wes Clark.
gqmartinez wrote on October 30, 2007 5:50 PM:I've been saying Huckabee is strongest candidate the GOP has (along with McCain). At times, he's reasonable but at other times he goes off the deep end.
I agree about Paul. He wants to end Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid. He probably wants to end public libraries! His opposition to the Iraq war is based on principles different than most liberals. We should take advantage of Paul, but realize he is not at all a friend to anyone left of extreme right-wing.
Seth H. wrote on October 30, 2007 6:02 PM:Absolutely. Many people I know that, how to say?, aren't necessarily that aware of politics but just follow the surface events are starting to root for Paul. I don't think any of them have actually seen him give a speech or they may think differently. I was really turned off when I saw him on the Colbert Report. Colbert went through all the Cabinet departments and a lot of federal programs with Paul claiming he'd work to end all of them.
So it goes... As for Dem VP, it's a much tougher call than it was four years ago. Edwards was the natural at that point, though at this point it wouldn't make quite as much sense and I get the impression he might not be as open to it. A midwesterner would be interesting if we want to marginalize the South, which I think is unwise.
skeptic wrote on October 30, 2007 9:07 PM:"I agree about Paul. He wants to end Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid."
They will end themselves. We are broke.
"He probably wants to end public libraries!"
No, these are local government functions.
"His opposition to the Iraq war is based on principles different than most liberals."
The war is illegal, expensive, dangerous and immoral. Please tell me why most liberals oppose it?
"He'll [Paul] sound perfectly reasonable, then suddenly start raving about how we've got to get the world on the gold standard, etc."
How much less is your dollar worth than it was say 20 or even 2 years ago? If we had a gold standard, those toys we see on The Military Channel would exist only in the imagination.
CalD wrote on October 30, 2007 9:10 PM:New ARG polls are out for IA, NH and SC and Huckabee is in fact coming in at 19% in IA, ahead of Mayor Mc9/11 and John McCain (at 16% and 14% respectively) and only 8 points behind Romney. That would be an amazing 15-point surge for Huckabee since their last poll in September, had it not been for the fact that they also showed him spiking up to 14% in August. I'm not sure what to make of that. But other than August and October, he's been in low single digits all year in ARG polls. Huckabee does not seem to particularly wowing anyone in NH or SC any more than he has been previously though.
In other ARG poll news, Mitt Romney who last month pulled even with Rudy G. in SC in a pretty eye-catching surge of his own (from 9% in the August up to 26% in Sept.) has expanded his apparent 3-point edge over Giuliani last month into a likely-significant 6-point lead this month (29% to 23%). Giuliani was flat for the month. No one else currently matters in the SC Republican race. Romney still holds onto a small lead in NH as well.
LKO wrote on October 31, 2007 3:11 AM:Mitt Romney is the best candidate to lead our country at this time. He has shown his ability to turn around companies, organizations, government, etc. He's talented, an optimist, enthusiastic, and has the ability to get the job done. He has the backing of some great indivduals in the Evangelical, Economic, Governmental, and other communities. Let's unite and elect our next AMERICAN PRESIDENT, Willard Mitt Romney!
bryan tew wrote on November 9, 2007 9:44 AM:I cant believe these lackey bloggers. Reagan had much less money in 1979 than Huckabee, and he won the Presidency. Huckabee has something the others dont: 'momentum'! He energizes the base. If Huckabee wins Iowa it will propel him to the nomination. Huckabee is Lincoln esque: meager beginnings, a great visionary & and a man of deep convictio.
Open your minds and your wallets & help the only true conservative in the bunch.
