Meanwhile, a new NH primary poll has Edwards still third, but Obama is catching up on Clinton.

At this stage in race, national polls are not necessarily accurate in predicting what's happening on the ground in states like Iowa. From reading the blogs and print media in Iowa, it's clear that Edwards's message is resonating with more Iowans than polls indicate.

People in Iowa appear to be seem increasingly receptive to his message. The Democrats need him as their candidate for the general election. Hillary generates so many negative comments that I'm suprised she's seemingly so far ahead. We'll know soon enough.

People lie to pollsters and pollsters lie to us. There's too much money involved to expect honesty.

A new Kentucky poll for the Senate shows just how vulnerable McConnell is, as he is only ahead by 5 against potential Democratic opponents.

This is just a subtle reminder that Edwards is trying to own the electability label. He's showing that he's willing to campaign in even the most Republican parts of the country--and some of those W. Iowa counties are very, very Republican. I'd be curious to see the turnout numbers for some events there.

This brings up something I've been thinking about: Eric, any chance EC could post the primary poll standings from 4 years previous along with the current polls? It would give some needed perspective.

Imagine: In this day and age, a Presidential candidate actually speaking to flesh and blood human beingsin meatspace instead of giving hand jobs to corporations and collecting checks. . . . Don't imagine it:

Look at Edwards.

It klnda puts corporate conspiritor Clinton and Mr. Chime in five days later Obama in a slightly different light.

Imagine an American government of, for and by 'We, the People' instead of a fascist plutocracy overseen by corporate interests. Decide and cast your ballot accordingly when the time comes.

All three of the top three Democratc conteders are electable . . . The question is which one should be elected.

Richard L. Adlof

Yeah, I think we should consider the $400 haircut populist who shows his deep personal commitment to environmental, land use, energy, and labor issues by clear-cutting a huge swath of timber and animal habitat and constructing a 28,000 square foot(!) gated estate using non-union labor.

Also, let's not mention his campaigning against offshore tax-dodge hedge funds in his 2004 stump speech followed by his taking a job with Fortress Investments after his miserable failure on the 2004 ticket. He didn't even make his home state competitive.

This loser hypocrite deserves a bigger thrashing than he's gonna get over the next couple of months.

colonpowwow,

I don't see how I "twisted" your post. I just think you are using the wrong factors ro estimate who is more likely to win the general election, and ignoring what history teaches us are in fact the most important factors, such as likeability.

On that subject: I learned long ago not to consult my own feelings in order to determine who voters will like on a personal level. Similarly, your experience with Bill Clinton is irrelevant to the question of how voters in general felt about him.

Moreover, it is a bit beside the point to argue that people will grow to like someone after they are President, since likeability is a major factor in getting elected in the first place. For example, for all we know, some people would have gotten to like Presidents Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, and Kerry better during their times in office. We will never know, however, because they couldn't get themselves elected.

And even if we somehow imagine this effect you hypothesize occurring in time for it to help get Clinton elected, the factors you cite are almost surely largely irrelevant to a presidential candidate becoming more likeable. To avoid accusation of "twisting", I will just quote your description: "hard-working wonk[]" and "Washington insider". That combination is hardly a recipe for personal appeal with the voters. In fact, again some variation or combination of those factors was used to justify the nominations of Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, and Kerry.

So, once again, you are focusing on the wrong factors. Unfortunately, as my list of failed nominees above suggests, this is a problem Democrats very often have--many of them seem to fundamentally misunderstand what factors are most relevant to success in a presidential election, to the point that they keep nominating "hard-working wonks" and "Washington insiders", all despite the fact that those candidates keep losing.

"I..'m from I..oowa, I..owa...
that's where the tall corn gr..ooows"!

That's a song ditty we sang all through the 50's. Iowa is a good place to be from, but who would want to go there? Iowa is full of corn, cattle, and pigs. I'm sure Hillary has a fair chance there. Edwards, being fair in looks and charm, will probably get the Blue Ribbon. Remember Hoover? Do a history check and recognize that Obama has no chance in Iowa. Trust me on this one.

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