Dems Win Special Election In Massachusetts By Lackluster Margin
Democratic candidate Niki Tsongas, the widow of the late Senator Paul Tsongas, has won the special election today in Massachusetts to succeed former Congressman Marty Meehan — but not by much in this solidly Democratic district and state.
With 170 of 195 precincts reporting, Tsongas won by a mere 51%-46% margin, a possible sign of discontent with the Democratic Congress' performance and a testament to the campaign run by Republican Jim Ogonowski, whose brother was killed on 9/11.
But a word of caution to those who think this result means the Democratic Congress is losing on the issues: Ogonowski himself ran on a platform in favor of a timeline for leaving Iraq, and he may have stalled as a result of giving an equivocating answer on how he would vote on an SCHIP veto override. Tsongas, meanwhile, was heavily weakened by a divisive Democratic primary.

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Josh Marshall's comment on the blog about ossifying Democratic machines being out of touch and voters calling them on it is something that deserves more attention. The dysfunctional mess that is Democratic politics in Illinois -- I hesitate to call it a party -- is begging for serious Republican opposition as well as serious primary challenge work. But the only one who seems remotely vulnerable at the moment is Dan Lipinski, and then only because of nepotism.
What concerns me is that Illinois desperately needs more public sector revenue because of education and infrastructure issues -- but the politicians who are proposing to raise taxes here are those whose units of government deserve it the least; primarily Cook County, which could get out of trouble with a click of Todd Stroger's fingers if only they would accept reality about how badly they run their health care system and how inefficient Cook county government is in general. This, plus the large tax increase proposed for somewhat better reasons in the city of Chicago, creates a raft of regressive taxes of ranging from the questionable to the utterly outrageous and an opportunity for antitax nuts to make real inroads in a metro area where they unfortunately will probably create more collateral damage for state projects and services that deserve funding than they will actually succeed in stopping sales tax and fee hikes.
If politicians here had guts and vision, they would constrain tax increases to the income tax alone, the one tax here that truly is rock-bottom, and then specifically earmark it towards things that desperately need fixing; capital projects in schools, roads and transit, and operating subsidies for classroom K-12 instruction. But we have a machine hack governor who took a no-new taxes pledge, a machine (if not quite so hack) house speaker who has blocked initiatives like this before, and a machine hack senate president who follows his leader (the gov). Talk about an opening for political insurgents, whether they be Republican, Green or anything else.
October 16, 2007 11:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
what a strategy. just be a Dem, do nothing to rock the boat, and all the votes will flow to the Dem party like manna from heaven. Thank God we have such clever and bold strategists. No risk is worth taking!!!
October 17, 2007 12:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is a no-win election.
The Democrats get a headline they'd rather not have: "Dems win Special Election in MA by Lackluster Margin."
The GOP puts a lot of resources (which, at the national level, they really did not have) into the race. The hype machine really went into overdrive in the last few days, with articles in major media outlets suggesting an upset. And they walk away with a six-point loss (the final count was 51-45-4). A lot of effort for yet another defeat in a close race.
They'll put a brave face on it, but they are crushed right now. They thought this was the turnaround for them.
October 17, 2007 12:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
It was mentioned that the under 35 vote voted Republican in this special election. After 9/11, my son, who was in college in Boston at the time, became incredibly patriotic, to the extent that my elderly mother called me in Norhern Ireland where I was living at the time, to warn me that she was worried that he would join the Marines as he had become hyper-patriotic. I wonder if these under 35 voters are still as affected by 9/11 as my son, thereby accounting for this weird vote. (by Massachusetts standards.) Maybe it's not about Mrs. Tsongas at all.
October 17, 2007 1:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Her husband had a lot of common sense and was pretty fiscally responsible for a northeastern liberal. Hopefully she can follow in his footsteps. This race for the Republicans is similar to the near miss in Ohio that the Democrats had against Jean Schmidt in a special election. Close but no cigar.
October 17, 2007 2:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is also a mostly suburban district (quite affluent suburban) with one old mill city (Lowell) in the middle that is heavily recent immigrant ethnic (SE Asian and Latino/a).
Most of the affluent suburban towns north of Boston are Republican. I'm not surprised at a moderately close race in this district, especially in a low-turnout special election.
October 17, 2007 3:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm from the 5th District and greatly resented the coronation of Tsongas by the local political machine. There were some great candidates in the primary, but she was not one of them. She was one of the least progressive, least charismatic and most offensive candidates running, the last in regards to her healthcare stance in which she advocated a letting the free market set healthcare prices, not unexpected for someone who worked in the HMO industry, but not someone I would want representing me. As a result, I almost didn't vote, but expecting a double digit victory, I voted for a more progressive independent (Patrick Murphy). I know how much each seat means to the Ds but the machine had to be told somehow that something needs to change.
October 17, 2007 5:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
There are many interesting perspectives of this race.
The post election spin that Republican Ogonowski ran a stronger race than expected is not really supported by the results. Even Joshua falls into the expectations trap, noting, "But the details are much more interesting. As of 10:23 PM, with 88% of precincts reporting, Tsongas has only 51% vs 45% for the Republican Jim Ogonowski."
Joshua continues, "That is weird. This is Massachusetts, after all, specifically the rim of suburbs to the northwest of Boston, Marty Meehan's (D) old seat, the 5th district."
Tsongas’ results were almost identical with the percentage vote that Democrat Gov. Deval Patrick garnered in 2006; 50.5%. For Gov. Patrick it was his lowest performing District througout the State. Tsongas is replacing Democrat Marty Meehan. It should be of interest to readers that Meehan won the seat for his first term in 1992 with "only" 52% of the vote.
Disappointing run by Tsongas? Hardly.
October 17, 2007 6:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm a resident of the 5th district. This is the most conservative district in MA. The wealthier suburbs have a big red streak running through them. Additionally, there was some local resentment about the fact that Tsongas had moved out of the district several years ago, and only started renting a condo in the district when she heard Meehan's seat was opening up. Ogonowski is a life-long resident of the district. At one point last night, I heard that Tsongas was behind Ogonowski with more than 50% of precincts reporting. But I breathed a sigh of relief when I heard that the majority of the uncounted votes came from the 2 largest cities in the district, Lowell and Lawrence. Both of these cities are strongly Democratic, and have large populations of minorities and lower-income voters. Lowell has a very soft spot for the Tsongas name, as it was Paul Tsongas' home town. They even named a sports arena in town after him. He played a big part in the revitalization of the city, even after he was no longer in any elected office. So I knew Lowell would go strongly for Tsongas.
October 17, 2007 9:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
So is it just me, or is there something frighteningly fore-shadowy about all this? Let's see . . .
Wife of a popular former office holder coronated by ossifying Democratic Party establishment. Runs hyper-cautious, risk-free platitudinous limo campaign against faux-dynamic Republican running on a 9/11 platform. Loses votes because supporters of more progressive and/or dynamic and/or change-oriented primary candidates are turned off by her consultant driven drivel and can't bring themselves to vote for her. Predicted blow-out turns into a squeaker.
The guy at Openleft.com said it best:
"Dems in DC need to know that putting up the same old mushy generic limousine Democrat is not going to work this cycle. They need to know that voters are demanding real change, and aren't willing to turn out for the culture of caution we've been getting. Something needs to convince DC Dems that what they're doing is not good enough and is not going to get the election results they're obviously salivating over, and Niki Tsongas nearly losing might do it."
http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=8C2DCDB0BE65674F0260F76D98F4947A?diaryId=1930
If Hillary wins the nomination, she absolutely has to change up her game for the general. If she runs the same kind of risk-phobic campaign in the general election she's run so far, she'll probably still win, but its going to be closer than it should be and that's going to hurt us down-ticket and, worse, convince the Republicans that they don't need to change anything much. Above all, the country needs for the Republicans to get so thoroughly crushed that they are compelled to engage in some real reflection on where they've gone wrong.
One of the reasons I support Obama is that I see absolutely no indication of any capacity whatsoever in Hillary's campaign to execute that kind of change. Mark Penn's role in her campaign alone pretty much rules it out. And with her top-heavy top-down organization, Even if there was the will to open up her game, actually doing it would be like trying to get an oil tanker to make rapid course changes. You can ask Captain Hazelwood how well that works.
October 17, 2007 10:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
I sort of resent some of the comments here by people who don't really know what they are talking about. You might not like it, but I seriously doubt that any of the other Dem candidates would have done any better than Tsongas did, and they may well have put the seat in even greater jeopardy, as they might not have motivated as many people to volunteer and go to the polls for them as Tsongas did, obviously due in no small part to her ties to the communities in the 5th District through her husband, who was very nearly the Dem nominee for President in 1992, after all.
Niki Tsongas didn't really "nearly lose." A win by 6% in a one-off, very low turnout special election against a very, very sentimental opponent is a fine performance.
Ogonowski's brother was a pilot on one of the 9/11 flights that crashed into the WTC, and his brother's widow taped highly emotional ads about how he saved their family farm in that time of crisis. Anti-immigrant sentiment also apparently plays well here, perhaps due to the large numbers of Latinos moving to Lawrence and Lowell. Good thing he didn't endorse S-CHIP.
If Ogonowski runs again in 2008, with a Democratic presidential candidate on the ticket, I seriously doubt that it will be as close.
October 17, 2007 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also, Governor Deval Patrick is certainly not a machine candidate in any sense, and while there are a few Dem machine types still kicking around in the state legislature, it's really not a big thing here these days. Certainly not compared to somewhere like Illinois.
We've had 16 years of GOP governors until last year, remember?
October 17, 2007 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm curious who wrote the headline for this article. A 5% margin in the GOP media would be labelled a "landslide."
October 17, 2007 2:49 PM | Reply | Permalink