Long-time New Hampshire state Senator Lou D'Allesandro (D) has endorsed Hillary Clinton. With this endorsement Hillary now has the endorsement of eight out of 14 Democrats in the state Senate — a clear majority.

During the 2004 campaign, D'Allesandro supported John Edwards.

A new poll from Newsweek shows that Hillary Clinton has yet to feel any pain in the national polls from this past week's debate. Hillary leads the Democrats with 43%, followed by Barack Obama at 24% and John Edwards with 12% — statistically unchanged from Newsweek's last poll back in August.

On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani continues to benefit from a heavily divided field. He has 30% support, followed by Fred Thompson at 15%, John McCain with 14%, Mitt Romney at 12%, and Mike Huckabee at 7%.

Hillary leads Rudy by a 49%-45% margin. In a three-way race with Mike Bloomberg, it comes out at Clinton 44%, Giuliani 38%, and Bloomberg 11%.

So it looks as if Barack Obama is going to continue to push the "gender card" criticism of Hillary. A female Obama adviser, Samantha Power, just went on Tucker to go after Clinton. Take a look:

Here's a transcript:

TUCKER: I'm just wondering very quickly what you think of Senator Clinton's position that Barack Obama is being mean to her partly because she's a woman, and that's wrong, that's out of bounds, that he should stop it. You think that's a legitimate response to his attacks on her?

OBAMA ADVISER SAMANTHA POWER: I'm hoping it was just a colossal slip of the tongue. I can't conceive that Hillary Clinton who, you know, is such a professional, that she would think that somehow points of policy difference come about because of gender difference -- that makes no sense to me whatsoever. To think that women in this country will respond to that I think would be, if that what's she's implying, and again, I can't believe that it is, but that would be quite insulting to women voters who are trying to actually make decisions on the merits.

Maybe I'm missing something here. Whatever you think of Obama and Hillary, did any of the stuff alleged above ever happen? Did Hillary ever say (as Tucker claims) that Obama is being "mean" to her because she's a woman? Did Hillary ever say (as Samantha Power claims) that policy differences come about because of gender differences?

As we noted earlier at some length, Camp Hillary is definitely trying to highlight the gender dimension to all this for political gain. There's no question about that. But still, none of the stuff alleged above by Tucker and Power ever happened.

Late Update: A number of commenters below are saying that Power was actually sticking up for Hillary here. I think that's plainly not the case. First off, note her first line: "I'm hoping it was just a colossal slip of the tongue." This is a ratification of Tucker's characterization of what Hillary said. Power then goes on and says she can't believe that Hillary could have possibly meant this. But this isn't a defense of her at all. It's saying, in effect, "I can't believe Hillary could possibly mean this, but she did say these things, and they're insulting to women." It's hard to see this as not being disingenuous. This is clearly a condemnation.

And again, as I noted below, the Hillary camp has in some ways emphasized the gender dimension of the contest for political reasons. So in some ways the spirit of what the Obama camp has been saying is right. But Hillary just didn't say the stuff alleged, or suggested, above. That's my problem with this exchange.

Late Late Update: Go take a look at what Taylor Marsh has to say about this Tucker/Power exchange.

For some time now we've been trying to push the idea that Rudy G. has, well, issues when it comes to telling the truth. And along comes another perfect example of this:

We're not sure what to make about this, really. It seems pretty clear cut. In the first interview, Rudy was asked explicitly about Joe Biden and foreign policy experience and he suggested very directly that Biden didn't have any, summarizing Biden's record thusly:

"It's one thing to speak about what you want or even pass laws about it. It's another thing to actually do it. Foreign policy experience to me means being an ambassador, being in the state department."

Unless I'm missing something, Rudy explicitly used the words "foreign policy experience." But then Rudy was later confronted about his contention that Biden Senate Foreign Relations Committee chair Biden lacks said experience. And he responded that he hadn't attacked Biden this way at all. "I didn't mention foreign policy." Rudy said. Of course, Rudy did in fact "mention foreign policy."

Wolf Blitzer did fact-check Rudy here, but he also kind of laughed off Rudy's mendacity -- yet another reminder that many in the media elite still see Rudy as someone who hit the political jackpot on 9/11 but who is fundamentally unthreatening and is a kind of harmless buffoon.

We've got more for you on how the media is still failing to confront Rudy's chronic dishonesty here and here.

Late Update: Biden responds to Rudy:

“Today’s comments come from a guy -- Rudy Giuliani -- who said Dick Cheney, the architect of Bush’s failed policy in Iraq, was a great choice for vice president and who recommended the now discredited Bernie Kerik to be Secretary of Homeland Security. Once again, Rudy has demonstrated his complete lack of knowledge of U.S. foreign policy.”

Michael Mukasey is now guaranteed a majority of votes in the Senate, with Democrats Chuck Schumer (NY) and Dianne Feinstein (CA), who both serve on the Judiciary Committee, announcing they will vote yes.

Here's our continually-updated vote chart:

The methodology is explained here.

Fox News is not impressed by Mitt Romney's defiance of their edict against campaigns using Fox footage in campaign ads and Web sites.

The Huffington Post reports that Chris Silvestri, Fox's Vice President of Legal & Business Affairs, has responded to the Romney campaign's contention that their latest ad and others constitute fair use.

"The Romney campaign using footage as part of the 'Mitt TV' section of their website goes well beyond a 'Fair Use' exception to U.S. Copyright Law and we will respond accordingly," Silvestri wrote in a statement obtained by the HuffPo.

The Politicker asks the key question here: "Will the Romney campaign live to regret alienating Fox? Guess we'll find out."

Did she or didn't she?

The debate is raging away on this question today. Ezra Klein says no. Atrios agrees, and adds that Hillary was right to describe the political world and its domination by Russert and company as a "boy's club." Garance Franke-Ruta agrees, suggesting more female moderators at debates such as the one last Wednesday.

The New York Times and Washington Post political blogs are both all over this, too.

Today Obama strongly suggested, without quite saying outright, that Hillary was claiming that her rivals were attacking her because she's a woman. "I didn't come out and say: `Look, I'm being hit on because I look different from the rest of the folks on the stage,'" Obama said.

But Hillary herself says she isn't playing the "gender card," saying today in New Hampshire: "I don't think they're piling on because I'm a woman. I think they're piling on because I'm winning."

So what really happened here, anyway?

Read more »

Rudy Giuliani is standing firm on his position that there are wild differences between prostate cancer survival rates between America and England — despite the fact that the statistics apparently don't exist, and even experts at the American Cancer Society say the comparison is misleading in the first place.

"Even if you want to quibble about the statistics," Rudy told reporters, "you find me the person who leaves the United States and goes to England for prostate cancer treatment, and I'd like to meet that person."

Two key votes on the Senate Judiciary Committee are still undecided on the nomination of Michael Mukasey for Attorney General. Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) is on the fence, and a spokesman for Sen. Herb Kohl (D-WI) confirmed to Election Central that the votes of both Wisconsin Senators are still up in the air.

Hillary has just offered her own thoughts on whether she thinks the men are attacking her because she's a woman:

"I don't think they're piling on because I'm a woman. I think they're piling on because I'm winning," Clinton told reporters after filing paperwork to appear on the New Hampshire primary ballot.

"I anticipate it's going to get even hotter, and if you can't stand the heat get out of the kitchen. I'm very much at home in the kitchen," she said.

This comes in response to Obama's assertion earlier today that she was complaining that the male candidates were "picking" on her when she yesterday described Presidential politics as a "boys' club."

Stay tuned for a longer post on whether Hillary "played the gender card" or not.

CNN has just reported that Senate Patrick Leahy (D-VT), chairman of the Judiciary Committee, will vote against Michael Mukasey.

"No American should need a classified briefing to determine whether waterboarding is torture," said Leahy, according to the Associated Press. According to a Leahy aide, he's scheduled a presser for 3 P.M. to discuss his opposition.

We have updated our vote chart:

An explanation of the chart's methodology is available here.

Dennis Kucinich just got a little lonelier in his position on UFOs. During the debate this week, Kucinich cited Jimmy Carter's well-known experience as another example of people seeing strange things in the sky.

But now Carter has told CNN that he does not at all believe the object he and about 25 other people saw — a round object that changed colors — was actually any sort of alien spaceship.

"It was unidentified as far as we were concerned, but I think it's impossible in my opinion, some people disagree, to have space people from other planets or other stars to come to us," said Carter. "I don't think that's possible."

Rasmussen Reports has just released a new poll taken after the debate, claiming that the numbers show that the pounding Hillary took from her rivals in the Dem debate may not have had any real impact on her.

Rasmussen says that in polling taken on the two nights after the debate free-for-all, "Clinton held a 45% to 18% lead over Barack Obama. For Clinton, that’s an improvement from Monday and Tuesday nights when her lead over Obama had been 40% to 24%."

Of course, there's been, and will continue to be, plenty of battling among Dems about the points raised that night, so who knows whether this will hold.

Barack Obama has received the endorsement of former South Carolina Chief Justice Ernest Finney, who served as the state's first black Supreme Court justice in modern times.

The endorsement has the potential to help Obama consolidate support among the state's African-American voters, who make up half of the Democratic primary electorate.

Campaigning today in South Carolina, John McCain attacked his fellow Republican candidates by name for their refusal to condemn waterboarding as torture, and challenged their qualifications to say otherwise.

"There's a clear division between those who have a military background and experience in these issues and people like Giuliani, Romney and Thompson who don't — who chose to do other things when this nation was fighting its wars," McCain told reporters.

And as for Rudy's claim that his own superior experience over the other candidates in handling a crisis — namely 9/11 — gives him some perspective on the importance of interrogation, McCain didn't give an inch.

"Mayor Giuliani just contradicted himself because anybody who has experience in warfare knows that waterboarding is by any definition torture and cannot be condoned," he said. "I do not know which crisis the mayor may have been talking about. My experience goes back to the Cuban missile crisis and every conflict we've been in since."

Senator Tom Coburn (R-OK), who is both a strong pro-lifer and a vociferous deficit hawk, said yesterday that the budget is in fact the more pressing issue — and he has a rather novel rationale.

"The greatest moral issue of our time isn't abortion, it's robbing our next generation of opportunity," Coburn said at the National Press Club. "You're going to save a child from being aborted so they can be born into a debtor's prison?"

The Romney campaign has sent a letter to Fox News saying that they will defy the network's request that all the GOP campaigns "cease and desist" from using Fox debate footage in ads or on their web sites, I've just learned.

Today the Romney camp went up with a new ad bashing Hillary. As Eric Kleefeld noted below, the ad contains a smattering of that debate footage -- despite the fact that Fox's lawyers sent a letter to the GOP campaigns last week demanding that they refrain from using it.

So we checked in with the Romney campaign to see what was up. And Romney spokesman Kevin Madden confirmed that the campaign has informed Fox that they were defying the request.

It's an interesting move by the Romney camp, because by defying Fox they're taking on a network that wields great power in GOP primary politics. Meanwhile, the move is likely to win Romney plaudits from liberals and conservatives alike, because as we noted here yesterday, right-wing bloggers have allied with MoveOn to wage a public fight against Fox's ban on the use of debate footage.

Madden said the campaign was on "very strong legal ground" and gave Election Central portions of the letter the Romney campaign's lawyer sent to Fox in which he argued that Romney's use of the footage is "the very essence of political speech protected by the First Amendment."

More from the letter after the jump.

Read more »

The environmentalist group Defends of Wildlife has a new ad running against Congressman Don Young (R-AK). Interestingly, the ad focuses more on Young's many ethics scandals, with only a short mention of global warming:

The news yesterday, that Congressman Tom Udall (D-NM) is reconsidering his previous decision not to run for Senate, now appears to be getting even more serious.

New Mexico political columnist Heath Haussamen reports that multiple sources have confirmed that Udall is now actively putting together a campaign structure for a potential Senate run.

If he runs, Udall would be considered the favorite for the seat of retiring GOP Senator Pete Domenici.

One new thing we're seeing in Campaign 2008 is the advent of the Official Campaign Attack YouTube. Here, for instance, is a vid just sent out by the Edwards campaign going after Hillary. It's called the "politics of parsing":

You've probably already noticed this, but the Dem primary really is in full swing right about now.

Check out these quotes from Barack Obama's interview with NBC's Today Show in which he accuses Hillary of playing the victim with her post-debate "the men beat up on me" line:

Obama said:

"I am assuming and I hope that Sen. Clinton wants to be treated like everybody else. And I think that that's why she's running for President.

"When we had a debate back in Iowa awhile back, we spent I think the first 15 minutes of the debate hitting me on various foreign policy issues. And I didn't come out and say: `Look, I'm being hit on because I look different from the rest of the folks on the stage. I assumed it was because there were real policy differences there...

"I don't think that people doubt that Senator Clinton is tough. She's used to playing in national politics. And in fact that is one of the things that she has suggested is why she should be elected -- because she's been playing in this rough-and-tumble stage.

"So it doesn't make sense for her, after having run that way for eight months, the first time that people start challenging her point of view, that suddenly she backs off and says: 'Don't pick on me. That is not obviously how we would expect her to operate if she were President."

It's obviously debatable whether Hillary is saying, "Don't pick on me"; what Hillary said yesterday is that her all-girls education left her "prepared" for the "all boy's club" of politics. And Clinton spokesperson Phil Singer is adamantly denying that this was a play for the female vote.

Nonetheless, this is some sharp and potentially potent stuff from Obama. As Ben Smith observes, he's basically coming right out and saying, "Hey, I'm black -- who are you to use your gender status to play the victim?" It seems clear that this signals the opening of a new front in their battle, and that Obama is going to keep this up. It'll be interesting to see where it goes.

Mitt Romney's latest TV ad breaks the edict from Fox News — it's using video from their debate two weeks ago, in which he quite pointedly likened Hillary Clinton's experience to that of an intern:

Romney, like all the candidates, got a cease-and-desist letter from Fox News in the wake of John McCain's ad, ordering the candidates to not use any Fox video content in their ads or Web sites.

A new poll in South Carolina by Winthrop University shows a three-way statistical tie in the Republican primary, while Hillary Clinton has a significant lead for the Democrats — and John Edwards is in a distant third.

On the Republican side, Fred Thompson led with 17.9% of respondents, followed by Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani at 16.5% each. John McCain had 9.2%, and Mike Huckabee 5.4%.

Among Democrats, Hillary Clinton has a solid 33% of respondents, with Barack Obama at 22.7%. The state's native son John Edwards is way behind, with only 9.6%

Barack Obama has a new ad set to run in New Hampshire, promoting the issues of economic fairness:

"My plan says, let's restore some balance to our tax code," Obama says. "Close these corporate loopholes the lobbyists put in. And let's make sure that tax breaks are given to people who really need it."

Duncan Hunter has an idea for how to deal with diplomats who don't want to go to Iraq. In a new press release entitled, "Hunter: Go to Walter Reed and Bethesda for New State Dept Personnel," Hunter argues that the diplomats should be fired and then replaced by wounded veterans.

"Especially for those whose mobility has been impaired by wounds, State Department positions, not only in Baghdad but around the world, will provide excellent jobs as well as availing our nation of their enormous talent," Hunter wrote.

Full statement after the jump.

Read more »

The liberal Web site Democrats.com has thought up an interesting way to sway Chuck Schumer's vote on the Mukasey nomination. The Washington Post reports that they've begun an e-mail campaign to withhold donations to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which Schumer heads up, if he votes for the nomination.

Barack Obama introduced in the Senate last night a resolution to officially declare that the White House does not have the authority to attack Iran.

In a clear shot at Hillary Clinton's vote for the Kyl-Lieberman Amendment, Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton told the Associated Press the resolution was made in order to "nullify the vote the Senate took to give the president the benefit of the doubt on Iran."

The Clinton campaign, meanwhile, is hitting right back. Spokesman Phil Singer told the AP that if Obama were so concerned about the issue, he should have a) co-signed Jim Webb's letter on the subject, and b) have shown up to vote against Kyl-Lieberman.

As promised, here's some video of Joe Lieberman on the Senate floor today saying that it would be "unjust" to oppose Michael Mukasey's confirmation as AG over a peripheral detail such as his refusal to say whether waterboarding constitutes torture:

Thirty Senators, led by Jim Webb, have just released a letter they sent to the President. The message: Stop trash-talking about Iran. Key quote:

We are writing to express serious concerns with the provocative statements and actions stemming from your administration with respect to possible U.S. military action in Iran. These comments are counterproductive and undermine efforts to resolve tensions with Iran through diplomacy.

We wish to emphasize that no congressional authority exists for unilateral military action against Iran.

Intrestingly, as The Huffington Post reported today, one Senator who didn't sign the letter is Barack Obama, apparently because he disagrees with the letter's assertion that Kyl-Lieberman "should in no way" be seen as a predicate for war with Iran.

"It will take more than a letter to prevent this administration from using the language contained within the Kyl-Lieberman resolution to justify military action in Iran," Obama spokesman Bill Burton told us. "This requires a legislative answer and Senator Obama intends to propose one."

The full letter, and a full list of signers, after the jump.

Read more »

Joe Lieberman, on the Senate floor just moments ago:

"To reject the nomination of Judge Michael Mukasey because he refuses to say what some members want him to say on this question, and he refuses as a matter of sincerely held legal belief...would be grossly unfair, an unjust act to this judge. May I suggest an alternative course...confirm him!"

Of course, lots of folks would argue that "this question" -- i.e., whether waterboarding is torture -- is kind of an important one. Video in a bit.

Meanwhile, we've updated our chart:

The other day, Rudy released a now-notorious ad claiming that the survival rate from prostate cancer is much higher in America than in Britain, showing what a failure socialized medicine has been. That claim was thoroughly debunked, however.

So will Rudy stop making the false claim? Far from it. Not only has he continued to mouth the same falsehood in the days after the claim was knocked down, but he's also expanded the dissembling about health care to another front: Breast cancer.

Check out this Rudy appearance on Fox News, which took place well after the initial claims had been widely proven false:

As you can see, Rudy repeated the same claims about prostate cancer, but he also added this:

"The same thing is true of women with breast cancer — the chance of surviving in the United States for a woman, much greater than in France, or in England or in Canada, or in Cuba where Michael Moore would like us all to go for health care."

The only problem with this is that it's outright false.

Read more »

"So the Senator who didn't think Halliburton's war profiteering was worth investigating is endorsing the candidate who wanted to put Bernie Kerik in charge of Homeland Security. Makes sense to us!"

— Andy Barr, campaign manager for Al Franken, responding in the Huffington Post to Senator Norm Coleman's endorsement of Rudy Giuliani.

Sen. Ted Kennedy has announced that he will not support Michael Mukasey for attorney general. Meanwhile, John McCain has been publicly defending Mukasey.

We have now updated our vote-count chart:

Stephen Colbert's effort to get on the South Carolina Democratic primary ballot has been blocked. The Politico reports that the state party's executive council has voted to reject his petition.

Besides the obvious cause — they were probably not amused by the joke — state party director Joe Werner implied there were acts of forgery in the ballot petitions. For example, the name of former Governor Jim Hodges was on the list.

Late Update: It turns out that despite Werner's suspicions, Colbert actually did meet with Hodges, the state's most recent Dem governor. It's not known yet, however, whether or not Hodges really did sign the petition.

Senator Norm Coleman (R-MN), who faces a tough re-election fight next year, has endorsed Rudy Giuliani for president.

"We have similar records — making cities safer, creating jobs, lowering taxes," Coleman told the Associated Press.

Minnesota's Republican governor, Tim Pawlenty, is a national co-chairman for John McCain's campaign

John Kerry has issued a statement opposing the nomination of Michael Mukasey to be attorney general, bringing the number of Senators opposed to the nomination up to nine.

The full statement from Kerry is available after the jump.

Read more »

Congressman Tom Udall (D-NM) might just end up running for the Senate, after all. The Albuquerque Journal reports that Udall, who previously took himself out of the running for the seat of retiring GOP Senator Pete Domenici, has informed party leaders that he's giving the race another look.

No firm decision has been made that he will enter, but he would easily become the favorite to win the seat in the general election, according to current polling. The current Democratic frontrunner, Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez, has had a much more lackluster performance against the possible Republican nominees.

Fun fact: Udall's family has a strong political presence out West. His cousin Mark is a Democratic Congressman from Colorado who is running for an open Senate seat, and their Republican cousin Gordon Smith is seeking re-election as a Senator from Oregon. It's thus possible that three cousins could end up winning three simultaneous Senate races, in three different states and from both parties.

This is interesting: A coalition of right-wing bloggers and MoveOn that helped force several networks to allow public use of their political debate footage last spring has just launched a similar campaign against Fox News.

Fox recently sent letters to all the GOP Presidential candidates "cease and desist" from using Fox footage in any way. In response, the right-wing bloggers and MoveOn are demanding that Fox rescind these cease and desist orders and allow public use of its debate footage.

In a press release just blasted out by MoveOn, RedState.com founder Eric Erickson, a prominent right-wing blogger, is quoted saying: "Already FOX is viewed as a partisan network by the Democrats, who will not use that forum for debates...Every other news organization has liberated their debate footage and FOX should either be no different or no longer have the privilege of airing debates."

The primary concern of the right-wing bloggers seems to be that if they can't use Fox debate footage on their sites, it hampers their ability to comment on the GOP primary and on politics in general. MoveOn, for its part, opposes Fox because its refusal to allow use of debate footage could "stifle debate."

One reason this campaign is interesting is that similar version of this alliance has had success before. After it launched a similar campaign last spring and gained considerable attention, CNN, ABC and NBC all agreed to allow use of its debate footage.

Read more »

The Edwards campaign isn't letting Hillary Clinton off easy about Tuesday night's debate. In a conference call just now with reporters, Edwards advisor Joe Trippi was asked about the Hillary camp's characterization that the other candidates and Tim Russert had ganged up on her.

Trippi then turned the question around and went after the Hillary campaign for trying to turn the debate aftermath into a new plea for money.

"Well I think the more telling one is that yesterday they had a conference call, their money people, saying they needed more money because of the debate performance, which goes back exactly to what we've been talking about," Trippi said. "You don't need money to tell the truth, or to not double-talk."

A new SurveyUSA poll shows Hillary Clinton ahead of all the Republican candidates in Florida, though some of the results are within the margin of error:

Clinton (D) 49%, Giuliani (R) 45%
Clinton (D) 53%, Thompson (R) 43%
Clinton (D) 55%, Romney (R) 40%
Clinton (D) 55%, Huckabee (R) 39%
Clinton (D) 49%, McCain (R) 46%
Clinton (D) 54%, Paul (R) 36%
Giuliani (R) 48%, Gore (D) 47%

Here's something that could put another dent in Rudy's 9/11 halo: Giuliani is now facing a New York City government investigation into his handling of the radios used by firefighters on 9/11.

The Huffington Post reports that the probe's goal is to get to the bottom of an enduring charge against Giuliani -- that because of his negligence the radios used by the FDNY on 9/11 were the same ones that malfunctioned during the 1993 World Trade Center attack. HuffPo says that more than 20,000 people have signed a petition demanding the investigation.

At the very least, such a probe could reveal more unflattering facts about his allegedly heroic 9/11 performance. Stay tuned -- we'll definitely be following this one.

Chris Dodd hits the airwaves in Iowa today with this new ad:

The ad is designed to capitalize on the sudden acrimony that's erupted in the Dem primary by saying that while the other Dems proclaim their willingness to fight for results, Dodd himself has gotten them in the Senate. Intriguingly, however, there's no mention of the thing that got him tons of attention in the past couple of weeks: His taking the lead in the battle against telecom immunity by threatening to block the Senate FISA bill, something that prompted similar opposition to telecom immunity from Hillary and Barack Obama.

Governor Ernie Fletcher (R-KY), who is headed towards a landslide defeat this Tuesday according to all the opinion polls, has a new ad about in which he is pitched as the champion of school prayer, the Ten Commandments, and Kentucky's traditional values:

"Choose life. Choose values," the announcer says. "Choose Ernie Fletcher — it's how we preserve our Kentucky home."

Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA) — whose personal fortune helped launch the 2003 recall of Governor Gray Davis — is now bankrolling the initiative to split California's electoral votes in a manner that would net the Republicans roughly 20 new electors.

"I have made a small contribution," Issa told The Hill. Issa has an interesting definition of "small" — though he did not disclose the full amount, he said it was in the tens of thousands of dollars.

"This is about making people’s votes count," he said. "It’s about proportional representation."

John Edwards is rolling out his first major TV ad in Iowa, a populist spot entitled "Heroes":

"It is time for our party, the Democratic Party, to show a little backbone, to have a little guts," Edwards says to an applauding crowd. "Stand up for working men and women. If we are not their voice, they will never have a voice."

Recent polling has made something pretty clear for Mitt Romney: He would have a hard time at best in the general election in his home state of Massachusetts, where he served one term as governor. The latest SurveyUSA poll shows him losing the state by an amazing 65%-31% margin against Hillary Clinton. And what's more, he might not even try to compete there at all.

In an e-mail exchange with Election Central, Romney spokesman Kevin Madden seemed to tacitly admit that they'll cede to the Democrats the state that elected Romney as its governor five years ago. "Massachusetts is a pretty blue state, and has gone to the Democrat candidate in national elections quite regularly in recent history," Madden said. "Our focus is on winning the Republican nomination and then taking the governor's message of bringing change to Washington to the rest of the country."

A new round of polling from SurveyUSA would seem to totally undermine a central claim of Rudy Giuliani's candidacy — namely, that he can put some usually safe-Democratic state into contention.

"We need a candidate that, you know, the day after the nomination, we don't close down our offices in 20 or 25 states, like we've been doing," Rudy said recently to the Republican Jewish Coalition. "We don't win the next election if we don't run a campaign in New York and California. I tell you, we don't."

As it turns out, a poll released Monday showed Giuliani losing California to Hillary Clinton by a 55%-39% margin. And as for his home state of New York — it's even worse, with Hillary beating Rudy by an astonishing 64%-30% margin in a poll released on Tuesday.

It looks like national Dems think there may really be an opening for a genuine effort to take out GOP Senate leader Mitch McConnell.

The Huffington Post reports that DSCC chief Chuck Schumer revealed today that McConnell is a key target. "Sen. McConnell's numbers are not very good," Schumer said, adding that Dems "are going to go out and try to get a Democratic senator."

It's apparently the first time that Schumer has said publicly that the DSCC is seriously contemplating an effort to unseat McConnell -- something that reflects a growing desire among Dems to target the GOP congressional leadership in the same way Repubs won an upset victory over former minority leader Tom Daschle (D-SD) in 2004.

The new Pew Research poll shows Hillary Clinton leading Rudy Giuliani by a 51%-43% margin — calling into question the conventional wisdom about Rudy's electability and Hillary's supposed lack thereof.

In the primaries, Hillary leads the Democrats with 45%, followed by Barack Obama at 24% and John Edwards with 12%. Among Republicans, Rudy leads with 31%, followed by John McCain at 18%, Fred Thompson with 17%, and Mitt Romney at 9%.

President Bush continues to have a lousy approval rating, with 30% approval to 63% disapproval.

An intriguing allegation is flying around John Edwards' endorsement from the New Hampshire SEIU — originally the union's board was going to endorse Barack Obama, but some newly-elected members were brought in over this past weekend in order to support Edwards.

"We have got some very strong allies in the union, and had received word that the board initially had voted to endorse us," Obama told the Associated Press. "There were some changes to procedure made that we don't entirely understand and I'll leave it up to you guys to sort it all out."

John Edwards defended the outcome. "I think I'm the one they endorsed," he said at a news conference. "It's a very long and very democratic process."

Mitt Romney has won over another Christian-right activist in his anybody-but-Rudy campaign, the latest being a former member of Fred Thompson's campaign.

Bill Wichterman, a former policy advisor to Bill Frist and a strong supporter of the Federal Marriage Amendment, parted ways with Thompson because of the issue and is now backing Romney as a part of his Faith and Values steering committee.

Okay, now that more Dem Senators are coming out and opposing the confirmation of AG candidate Michael Mukasey, it's looking like we may end up with a real confirmation battle here.

So we thought we'd make it easy for you to follow which Senators are where by creating a handy chart to help you keep track of what's going on. It's below.

It tells you which Senators have come out and declared their opposition to Mukasey, which are undecided, and which are for him. A quick note on methodology: We're starting with the assumption that GOP Senators who haven't said otherwise are likely to vote for Mukasey. If any come out and say the contrary, or express doubts about him, we'll move them to the appropriate category.

Also, our tally below is based on the best information we've been able to find, so if you know of a Senator who has said something more definitive on this, please let us know and we'll update the chart appropriately. We'll be keeping this constantly updated for you and we'll be linking back to it regularly. Enjoy:

Apparently Stephen Colbert isn't kidding about this, at least as far as the Dem primary in South Carolina goes.

Barack Obama campaign manager David Plouffe has just sent out a statement on the AFSCME endorsement of Hillary today, claiming that the friendship between AFSCME chief Gerry McEntee and Bill Clinton drove the union's backing of his wife. Key quote:

“We understand that Gerry McEntee and Bill Clinton have a long and close relationship so the push for a Clinton endorsement is no surprise. It is a bit surprising that the union probably most concerned with state and local election results would support the candidate with the likeliest least appeal in red states."

Meanwhile, Ben Smith summarizes the rest of the pushback against this endorsement by Hillary's rivals, pointing out that ASFCME endorsed Howard Dean in 2004 (look how that turned out) and backed the wrong Dem in the Iowa gubernatorial primary last year. The full Obama statement after the jump.

Read more »

John McCain has a new ad set to begin running tomorrow in New Hampshire, touting his record in stopping corrupt and wasteful spending in Washington:

"Corruption exposed; Billions saved; Wrongdoers jailed," the narrator says. "All the candidates for president say they'll stop wasteful spending. One man has actually done it."

Yet another poll shows Governor Ernie Fletcher's (R-KY) numbers getting even worse as the state heads into its gubernatorial election next week. The Louisville Courier-Journal's Bluegrass Poll now has Democrat Steve Beshear leading Fletcher 56%-33%, statistically unchanged from Beshear's 55%-35% lead a month ago.

In honor of Halloween, the Edwards camp has found a fun -- if not terribly subtle -- way to suggest that Hillary is unelectable, emailing this mock newspaper out to supporters a few moments ago:

There's a lot of amusing detail there to pore over -- note the "D.C. Insider Edition" in the top right-hand corner, for instance.

As for whether it's, you know, factually accurate, it's true that some Democrats around the country have (anonymously) told reporters that they worry about her effect on the down-ticket races, but Hillary is beating all the top GOP contenders in a fair amount of state and national polls.

Late Update: A commenter below makes the valid point that there are a fair amount of Dems who have gone on the record with their fears about Hillary's impact on down-ticket races. My mistake.

Yet another state is set to enter the February 5 national primary. Rhode Island legislators voted yesterday to move their primary from March 4 to the new date.

The office of Governor Don Carcieri, a Republican, has indicated that he will not veto the bill.

It's official: As expected, the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, one of the country's largest and most politically influential unions, has decided to endorse Hillary, union officials tell us.

The endorsement is a big one for Hillary, as it will provide an opening for her camp to say that she's quickly reasserted her frontrunner status after taking a pounding at last night's debate. Whether this is true is debatable -- more on that in a bit -- but it's certainly the line her camp will push, and it's certainly a big get. Indeed, supporters of Barack Obama and John Edwards both worked within the union to delay the decision to give its support to Hillary.

We've just obtained an advance copy of the speech that AFSCME president Gerald McEntee will deliver in a little while announcing the news. Here's a key quote from McEntee -- one that's eerily in sync with the spin about last night's debate that's emanated from Camp Hillary:

This is no time to take chances. We need someone who knows how to fight and knows how to win. Sisters and Brothers, Senator Clinton is a seasoned fighter. Believe me, she knows how to fight and she knows how to win.

Some of you may have seen last night’s debate.

Six guys against Hillary.

I’d call that a fair fight.

This is one strong woman.

This is the Democrat with the strength and experience to make change happen.

This is the Democrat with the strength and experience who will always stand up for working Americans.

This is the Democrat with the strength and experience to take on the Republicans in the fall.

This is the Democrat who can win the White House in 2008.

The union board's vote for Clinton was 23-10, according to a union official. It took place earlier today.

More on this in a bit. Full speech after the jump.

Read more »

Here's Hillary pollster Mark Penn in the debate spin room last night, attempting to explain Hillary's now-notorious answer to a question about whether she supports New York Governor Eliot Spitzer's plan to give driver's licenses to illegal immigrants:

Convinced?

A new Zogby poll shows Hillary Clinton leading the Democratic field nationally with 38% support, followed by Barack Obama at 24% and John Edwards with 12%. Nobody else earns more than 2% support.

The margins are statistically unchanged from their poll in mid-September, with the top three candidates all gaining two to three points over that result.

Is another GOP Senator about to announce his retirement? GOP sources are saying that Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS) may be leaning towards quitting, with an official announcement of his plans set for early November.

Despite Mississippi's heavy Republican lean, national and local Democrats are hoping to take advantage of an open seat opportunity in the state. In particular, Democrats believe that Mike Moore, the state's popular Attorney General from 1988 to 2004 who earned national fame for his successful prosecution of tobacco companies, would be a formidable candidate.

With only a week until Election Day in the Kentucky gubernatorial race, incumbent Republican Ernie Fletcher is way, way behind in the latest SurveyUSA poll — 60% for Democratic candidate Steve Beshear, and only 36% for Fletcher. It's usually bad news if an incumbent is below 50 points, but Fletcher is under 40 points.

A new Quinnipiac national poll shows Hillary Clinton continuing to hold a massive lead among Democratic voters across the country, while Rudy Giuliani has a small plurality on the Republican side.

Hillary has 47% support among Democrats, followed way behind by Barack Obama at 21% and John Edwards with 12%. Among Republicans, Rudy Giuliani has 27%, Fred Thompson 17%, Mitt Romney 14%, and John McCain 13%. Mike Huckabee, who has been enjoying a surge in Iowa, is at only 6% nationwide.

In addition, the general election match-ups with Rudy Giuliani and John McCain would be close for all top three Democrats, while the three Dems enjoy better leads against Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney. Those numbers are available after the jump.

Read more »

Buried in today's piece in The Hill on AG nominee Michael Mukasey and the Senate Judiciary Committee's review of his candidacy for the post is this:

A senior Senate Democrat told The Hill Tuesday that Mukasey’s nomination had no chance of passing the Judiciary Committee if he declined to classify the interrogation technique, which simulates drowning, as torture.

Mukasey has already twice declined to classify waterboarding this way, and it doesn't look like he plans on changing his mind anytime soon, so it'll be interesting to see if this pans out and if Dems stick by it.

• The knives came out against Hillary Clinton last night, with all the candidates piling on her in one way or another. John Edwards came out the most forcefully against her, followed by Chris Dodd and Barack Obama.

• Barack Obama accused Hillary of double-talk. "Senator Clinton has in her campaign I think been for NAFTA previously, now she's against it," Obama said. "She has taken one position on torture several months ago and then most recently has taken a different position."

• The biggest bone of contention was Hillary's vote for Kyl-Lieberman, with Hillary continuing to maintain that this was a vote for increased sanctions and diplomacy. "I am not in favor of this rush for war," she said, "but I'm not in favor of doing nothing."

• Chris Dodd predicted that the Senate's vote for Kyl-Lieberman will come back to haunt those who voted for it: "I'm very concerned that we're gonna see those 76 votes come back, being waved in front of us here as a justification when the Bush Administration decides to take military action in Iran."

• Hillary Clinton, continually challenged on the Kyl-Lieberman vote, made the interesting claim that she's for diplomacy and economic sanctions, and furthermore "what we're trying to do here is put press on the Bush Administration."

• Edwards then challenged her assertion that she was putting pressure on the administration when she voted for Kyl-Lieberman. "So the way do that was to vote Yes on a resolution that looks like it was written literally by the neocons?" Edwards said in disbelief.

Read more »

John Edwards has reportedly won the endorsement of the SEIU local in New Hampshire, completing a near-sweep of endorsements from the SEIU chapters.

Edwards had been unable to secure the endorsement of the national SEIU, but has really nailed down the next best thing. Thanks to the endorsements in Iowa and now New Hampshire, locals supporting other candidates won't be able to participate in the Democratic races in those states.

It just gets worse and worse for Mukasey. Senator Joe Biden, who earlier had said that he'd give Michael Mukasey a chance to clarify his views on waterboarding, has just announced that he's coming out against Mukasey's confirmation -- meaning that all four Dem Senators running for President now are blocking Mukasey's path to the AG's office.

Biden indicated his opposition in a new statement just out from his office in response to Mukasey's refusal this afternoon to clarify whether waterboarding is illegal.

“Waterboarding is by any standard, torture," Biden said. "We need to send a clear message that torture, inhumane, and degrading treatment of detainees is unacceptable and is not permitted by U.S. law. Period. We cannot have a United States Attorney General who will equivocate and dissemble on this matter. Too much is at stake.”

In addition to Biden, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and Chris Dodd all stand opposed to Mukasey, as does John Edwards. Biden's full statement after the jump.

Read more »

This direct mail piece, which a source sent our way, was just dropped by the McCain campaign in South Carolina:

Note the pic of McCain as a young Navy guy -- a reminder that neither Rudy, Romney nor Thompson served in the military. The piece also makes an argument that the McCain campaign is seeking to make more and more often of late -- namely, that he's the only conservative who can beat Hillary. The idea obviously is to trump Rudy's electability argument by telling social conservatives (of which there are many in South Carolina) that in McCain they have someone who is equally well-positioned to win a general election and who is with them on their core issues.

However, as the McCain campaign argued in a recent internal strategy memo, the Rudy campaign has been making the claim for months now that he alone is the best candidate against Hillary. The memo even confesses that the Rudy campaign has successfully "convinced voters" that this is the case. So it remains to be seen whether the McCain camp can turn this around with stuff like this, or whether it's too late.

It looks as if the Republican Presidential candidates are on the verge of taking a pass on yet another opportunity to speak before an African American audience.

The Huffington Post reports that the Congressional Black Caucus, which had earlier announced that it had scheduled a Republican Presidential debate on Fox News for November 4, has abruptly postponed the planned gathering.

The reason? None of the GOP candidates were willing to show up. A CBC spokesperson tells HuffPo that the candidates cited that oft-reached-for excuse: Scheduling conflicts. That's the same excuse that the top GOP candidates used to get out of attending PBS's planned debate with Tavis Smiley.

Is there any date that will work for the GOP candidates? Well, of the frontrunners only Mitt Romney's campaign would say that he's even considering going.

The Republican primary in the special election for the late Congressman Paul Gillmor's (R-OH) seat is getting dirty, and it can be explained in three words: Club For Growth.

The Club is supporting state Senator Steve Buehrer against state Rep. Bob Latta, whose father Del Latta retired from the same Congressional seat back in 1988. Here's their new ad attacking Latta as a tax-hiking liberal:

There's more after the jump.

Read more »

Below we noted that top Iowa columnist David Yepsen offered more grist for the "Huckabee surging" narrative by claiming in his column this morning that conservative GOP candidate Mike Huckabee has an outside shot at winning in Iowa.

So we called up a top Iowa GOP official to test Yepsen's theory. And this official went further, saying in an interview that he thought Mike Huckabee has a 30 percent chance of winning his state.

"Can he win Iowa? Oh, yeah," Chuck Laudner, the executive director of the Iowa state GOP, told Election Central. "He's running in a strong second position right now. It's not out of the realm of possibility at all."

Asked to assess Huckabee's chances of winning, Laudner said: "I'd say somewhere around 30 percent."

Read more »

A new Democracy Corps memo/press release explores the current pessimism in the country, which the authors argue is even worse than it was in 1992, when nearly 20% of voters went for Ross Perot.

The Democrats, they argue, need to go beyond being simply anti-Bush and anti-Iraq War and become a party of change across the board: "The biggest challenge and opportunity one year out from the 2008 election is whether the Democrats will become the voice of that change."

It's official: Hillary says she will oppose the confirmation of Michael Mukasey. Here's the key quote from her statement, which was just sent over moments ago:

"When we leave any doubt about our nation’s policy on torture, we send a terrible message to the rest of the world. Judge Mukasey has been given ample opportunity – both at his confirmation hearings and in his subsequent submission to the Judiciary Committee – to clarify his answers and categorically oppose the unacceptable interrogation techniques employed by this Administration. His failure to do so leaves me no choice but to oppose his nomination."

Hillary's statement of opposition to Mukasey comes after Chris Dodd and Barack Obama announced their opposition yesterday and John Edwards announced his today. Her full statement after the jump.

Read more »

A new candidate is set to enter the race for Senate in North Carolina, with Democratic state Senator Kay Hagan expected to announce her campaign.

An expert in North Carolina politics told The Hill that he does not expect the race to be competitive, but that Hagan's presence would force Dole and the Republicans to spend some money. On the other hand, Dole's approval ratings have been decidedly lackluster — the challenge Democrats face is to parlay that into a victory in a state likely to vote GOP in the presidential election.

Hagan had previously passed on the race, but national Democrats renewed their entreaties to her — possibly because it came to light that the only announced candidate, businessman Jim Neal, is openly gay.

A new Rasmussen poll in Virginia shows that the state could be close in 2008, with three of the top Republicans holding statistically insignificant leads against Hillary Clinton:

Giuliani (R) 46%, Clinton (D) 43%
Thompson (R) 46%, Clinton (D) 45%
McCain (R) 46%, Clinton (D) 45%
Clinton (D) 48%, Huckabee R) 39%

However, Clinton would have some reason to worry here — her unfavorable rating is a solid 51%.

Meanwhile, former Governor Mark Warner (D) holds a 53%-37% lead over former Governor Jim Gilmore (R) in the open Senate race.

John Edwards has just sent out the following statement strongly condemning Michael Mukasey and urging the Senate to reject him:

George Bush's political appointees at the Justice Department have twisted the law to justify waterboarding and other interrogation techniques that have long been considered torture. Now the man who is supposed to clean up the Justice Department -- Judge Michael Mukasey -- says he does not know whether waterboarding is torture or not. What more information does he need? Waterboarding was used in the Spanish inquisition and considered a war crime in World War II.

Mukasey has also said that the president doesn't necessarily have to abide by acts of Congress. We need an Attorney General who will put the rule of law above the administration’s short-term political interests, and Mukasey has already shown that he's unwilling to do that.

“The credibility of Justice Department has been badly tarnished, and it is now clear that Mukasey is not the man to restore it. The Senate should reject his nomination.

This will be greeted with some grumbling from rival campaigns, who will point out that Edwards is no longer in the Senate. Nonetheless, of the Presidential candidates, Dodd, Obama, and Richardson are the only ones to come out unequivocally against Mukasey. Everyone is waiting to hear what Hillary has to say about this.

A new round of polls from American Research Group shows Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney with decent leads in the three key states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Interestingly, ARG now has Mike Huckabee moving into second place in Iowa, with 19% to Romney's 27%, and Rudy Giuliani in third place at 16%.

The full numbers are available after the jump.

Read more »

A new internal poll in the New Mexico Senate race, conducted for Democratic candidate Martin Chávez's campaign, shows the Albquerque mayor statistically tied with Republican Congresswoman Heather Wilson. According to Roll Call, the poll by Democratic firm Lake Research shows Chávez taking 41% to Wilson's 40%.

Among independents, the poll has Chávez leading 48%-30% — meaning the closeness of the race probably comes from Chávez not yet being able to completely nail down core Democratic support.

Another caveat, in addition to it being an internal poll: Numbers have not been released pitting Chávez against another major Republican candidate, Congressman Steve Pearce.

Tonight the Dem Presidential candidates are set for another debate, and it seems likely that one question that will come up is whether the Dems support AG nominee Michael Mukasey in light of his refusal to condemn waterboarding and other techniques as torture.

As noted here yesterday, two of the Dem Senators running for President -- Chris Dodd and Barack Obama -- have ruled out voting to confirm him. And Hillary? Where does she stand on Mukasey? Well, it remains unclear:

"Senator Clinton is deeply troubled by Judge Mukasey's unwillingness to clearly state his views on torture and unchecked executive power," a spokesman for her Senate office, Philippe Reines, told the Sun in an e-mail yesterday.

Mr. Reines refused to say whether that meant that Mrs. Clinton intended to oppose Judge Mukasey or even whether she has made a final decision...

This provides an opening for Hillary's Dem rivals to press her for clarity on this tonight. Meanwhile, Ben Smith notes that Camp Hillary is already laying the groundwork to spin the inevitable criticism of her from rivals tonight as desperate political attacks.

Late Update: Hillary has now confirmed that she'll oppose Mukasey's confirmation.

Bill Richardson's new one-minute ad in Iowa features the candidate talking to the viewer in a rural, outdoor setting:

"I knew there'd be differences between the candidates, especially on Iraq," Richardson says. "I'll get every soldier out. You can't say you'll end the war if you plan to leave thousands of troops behind. The Iraqis sure won't think the war is over."

Here's something that's sure to fuel the "surging Huckabee" narrative: Influential Iowa columnist David Yepsen says in a column today that Huck can actually be the surprise winner in the state.

Yepsen's basic take is that conservative voters are noticing Huckabee's consistency on their issues and comparing it favorably to frontrunner Mitt Romney's less-than-consistent past, and that Fred Thompson just isn't getting anyone excited. Yepsen also has a lot of good color from the campaign trail demonstrating that Huckabee is connecting with the state's voters.

As Jonathan Martin notes, the Huckabee camp is probably most excited about this closing Yepsen line: "At a time when GOP candidates are falling all over themselves to rekindle the spirit of Ronald Reagan in their party, Huckabee's coming as close as anyone."

Rudy Giuliani isn't just running for president these days — it turns out he's still working part-time at his security contracting firm, Giuliani Partners, even though he said back in June that he was going to take a leave of absence, the Washington Post reports.

The fact that Rudy is still working and collecting income at a private contracting firm creates a lot of potential conflicts of interest. For example, a company could decide to curry favor with a potential President Giuliani by hiring his firm's services and building a professional relationship.

Already, his campaign has had to reimburse the firm for Rudy's private security detail.

Ron Paul's new round of TV ads for New Hampshire have been unveiled.

Here's the first ad, featuring New Hampshirites talking about why they're for Paul:

And in the second ad, Paul speaks directly to the viewer and explains his views on ending the war and cutting federal spending:

Bill Richardson has picked up a decent endorsement in New Hampshire, with Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand supporting his candidacy.

Marchand briefly ran for Senate, attracting the support of many liberals, but dropped out when former Governor Jeanne Shaheen entered the race. He is currently viewed as a possible candidate for Senate in 2010.

"Bill Richardson is the most experienced candidate in the race, the most determined to end the war in Iraq, and the most capable of bringing about the real change that America needs," Marchand said in a press release.

During a New Hampshire town hall, Rudy Giuliani took his foreign-policy rhetoric against the Democrats to new heights — saying that Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama are such wild-eyed optimists that they would want to invite Osama bin Laden over to the White House.

"This is the world we live in. It's not this happy, romantic-like world where we'll negotiate with this one, or we'll negotiate with that one and there will be no preconditions, and we'll invite Ahmadinejad to the White House, we'll invite Osama to the White House," said Giuliani.

"Hillary and Obama are kind of debating whether to invite them to the inauguration or the inaugural ball."

During his MTV/MySpace online forum today, Barack Obama acknowledged some of the controversy surrounding his campaign's inclusion of gospel singer Donnie McClurkin.

"It’s true we had a controversy ... a gospel singer was singing at a gospel concert on our behalf, he was one of many, and he had some views that were anti-gay," said Obama. "I am disturbed by those views and I have said publicly that I have disagreed with them."

On the other hand, Obama defended the decision to not exclude McClurkin on that basis: "I have also said we have to reach out to those who have a different attitude on these issues to try to teach."

Is the central claim in Rudy Giuliani's latest ad — that prostate cancer patients in Britain have only a 44% five-year survival rate — actually true? According to ABC News, the claim in the new ad came from a single article in a free-marketeer magazine, published eight years ago, which did not include a citation.

According to official statistics from the British government, the five-year survival rate for prostate cancer diagnoses was 74.4% from 1999-2003, and it's rising to meet the American rate of 82%.

Insofar as there is a difference, as Ezra Klein explains, it comes from years of publicity in the United States geared towards encouraging men to get examined, and to thus catch the cancer early. In fact, both countries have roughly the same percentage of men who die of prostate cancer, but many more American men are diagnosed with relatively benign forms of it — thus inflating the survival rate.

Barack Obama's campaign sends over the following statement:

"We urgently need an Attorney General who will check the vast and unconstrained executive powers that have been accumulated under the Bush-Cheney Administration. Judge Mukasey has failed to send a clear signal that he understands the legal and moral issues that are at stake for our country, and so I cannot support him.

"No nominee for Attorney General should need a second chance to oppose torture and the unnecessary violation of civil liberties. It's time to stop the political parsing and to close the legal loopholes. Waterboarding is torture, and so are other 'enhanced interrogation techniques' like 'head-slapping' and 'extreme temperatures.' It's time to reclaim our values and reaffirm our Constitution."

Earlier today Chris Dodd came out firmly against Mukasey, prompting us to ask what the other Dem Senators running for President would say about this. We now have Obama's answer. What will the third Senator say?

Barack Obama's campaign has just sent over a statement saying that he cannot support Michael Mukasey for AG absent some clearer language from him on waterboarding:

"I have been consistent in my strong belief that no Administration should allow the use of torture, including so-called 'enhanced interrogation techniques' like water-boarding, head-slapping, and extreme temperatures. It's time that we had a Department of Justice that upholds the rule of law and American values, instead of finding ways to enable the President to subvert them. No more political parsing or legal loopholes. I cannot support Judge Mukasey unless he clearly and unequivocally rejects techniques like water-boarding."

Earlier today Chris Dodd came out firmly against Mukasey, prompting us to wonder what the other Senators running for President would say about this. We now have Obama's answer: No clarity on waterboarding, no support.

His name is William Russell, and he's a Republican and career military man, reports the Tribune-Democrat of Johnstown, Pennsylvania.

Given that Murtha has a history of larding his district with the fattiest pork out there, that the district is dominated by Democrats, and that Murtha's new challenger's primary issue is arguing in favor of the Iraq War, it's safe to assume that DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen isn't too worried about this one.

Rudy Giuliani has a new radio ad in New Hampshire, in which he discusses his experience with prostate cancer, then attacks plans for government-administered health care and in turn promotes his idea of encouraging people to become individual policyholders.

"My chance of surviving prostate cancer, and thank God I was cured of it, in the United States, 82%," Rudy says. "My chances of surviving prostate cancer in England, only 44% under socialized medicine.

"You and I should be making the decisions about what kind of health care we get with our doctors, not with a government bureaucrat."

As Josh noted the other day, there's more and more evidence that one of the key contests settling who will secure the GOP Presidential nomination is the South Carolina primary. That state, of course, is notorious for its less-than-savory brand of politics, being the place where George W. Bush famously defeated John McCain amid rumors that the Arizona Senator had fathered an out-of-wedlock black child.

Now that the South Carolina primary is again shaping up as a critical battleground, it's clear that there's a huge amount riding on a particularly hard-bitten political breed: Republican political operatives in South Carolina.

These are the GOP candidates' South Carolina enforcers -- that is, the men whose job it is to find the 2008 magic bullet equivalent of the black-baby story (without admitting it or getting caught, of course). So we thought it would be useful if we introduced you to the candidates' leading South Carolina hatchet men.

To some degree the hard-bitten -- okay, sleazy -- operatives who helped Bush prevail in 2000 have split between the current candidates. Heath Thompson, who was Bush's chief operative in the state, is now Rudy's state director. Another key Bush hand from 2000, longtime state operative Warren Tompkins, is with Mitt Romney.

Perhaps not surprisingly, one of McCain's key guys in the state is someone who wasn't a Bushie in 2000: State attorney general Henry McMaster, who was state party chair that year and hence remained neutral in the 2000 primary. (Fred Thompson's campaign started late and doesn't have quite the big names in the state that the others do.)

A full rundown on who these guys are after the jump.

Read more »

Hillary Clinton has a new ad aimed at seniors in New Hampshire, promoting her record on Social Security and other health care issues.

"These days, it seems like every candidate on earth is coming here for you," the narrator says — seemingly in answer to Barack Obama's accusations that she's been avoiding the tough questions on Social Security. "But which candidate has been there for you all along?"

(Via Ben Smith.)

A speech in New Hampshire today by John Edwards is a full-scale assault against Hillary Clinton, tying her in with corporate interests, social injustice, and just about everything else where America has fallen short of what it can truly be.

"Senator Clinton's road to the middle class takes a major detour right through the deep canyon of corporate lobbyists and the hidden bidding of K Street in Washington," Edwards says, "and history tells us that when that bus stops there it is the middle class that loses."

The full speech, from the prepared remarks, is available after the jump.

Read more »

Mike Huckabee's campaign is working to leverage their recent rise in the Iowa polls towards some progress in one of his weaker areas, fundraising.

The campaign announced in an e-mail sent out Thursday that they'd brought in $703,879 for the month of October, including $331,420 over the previous five days. In other words, Huckabee's appeal to the religious right at the Family Research Council's Values Voter Summit was powerful enough to boost his fundraising from $15,519/day all the way to $66,284/day.

So now they've set a goal of raising $1,034,487 online this month, one dollar more than they raised online for all of last quarter. They'll even take a single dollar, called a "Buck For Huck."

As of this writing, they're up to $887,710.16 — meaning they'll have to raise about $150,000 between now and Wednesday night. But even if they do get it, their goal would be considered very modest by other campaigns' standards — it would leave them with $1.7 million in the bank.

The controversy over Obama supporter and antigay gospel singer Donnie McClurkin just won't go away. The latest: McClurkin tried his hand at -- ahem -- a bit of damage control, and the result was the following:

The Grammy-winning singer said Sunday his words had been "twisted."

"Don't call me a bigot or anti-gay, when I have been touched by the same feelings," McClurkin went on. "When I have suffered with the same feelings. Don't call me a homophobe, when I love everybody … Don't tell me that I stand up and I say vile words against the gay community because I don't. I don't speak against the homosexual. I tell you that God delivered me from homosexuality."

Hmmm, somehow we don't think this will improve matters. More from John Aravosis, who's led the assault on Obama over this.

All eight Republican candidates have confirmed their participation for a CNN/YouTube debate, scheduled for November 28 in St. Petersburg, Florida.

Some of the Republican candidates had been leery of the format, and were declining to commit at first, but arrangements were eventually made to hold the debate.

John Edwards is giving a speech later this morning that purports to clarify what this election is about with lines like this one:

"It’s time to tell the truth. And, the truth is the system in Washington is corrupt. It is rigged by the powerful special interests to benefit they very few at the expense of the many...

"This corruption did not begin yesterday -- and it did not even begin with George Bush – it has been building for decades – until it now threatens literally the life of our democracy."

The slipped-in line about this corruption predating Bush -- meaning it reigned during the previous Presidency -- is already being interpreted as an attack on the Clintons. More speech excerpts after the jump.

Read more »

The poll flagged by Eric below also has some numbers that remind us just how questionable the significance of the national polls really is: It finds that Hillary and Obama are in an absolute dead heat in Iowa:

In the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, meanwhile, a slip in John Edwards' numbers has allowed Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama to tighten their grips on the No. 1 and No. 2 spots, respectively. Among all likely Democratic caucus-goers, Clinton leads with 28.9 percent, followed by Obama with 26.6 percent, Edwards with 20.0 percent, Bill Richardson with 7.2 percent and Joe Biden with 5.3 percent.

The poll has a margin of error of 5.8 percent, so again, this is a statistical tie between Hillary and Obama. And there aren't that many votes left to fight over: The survey finds that less than 10 percent are undecided.

Late Update: Mark Blumenthal -- a.k.a. Mystery Pollster -- found fault with the methodology of this same poll in August. And Mark has a new post up today cautioning against using this poll to draw any conclusion about the trends at play.

Chris Dodd has just become the first Democrat to say he's voting against Michael Mukasey for AG. His reason: Mukasey's assertion that the President can overrule a Federal statute when the country's defenses are at risk.

Dodd's campaign emails over the following statement:

"Mr. Mukasey's position that the President does not have to heed the law disqualifies him from being the chief attorney for the United States. We have seen for too long, and at great expense to our national security, an Administration that has systematically attacked the rule of law and turned our Justice Department into a poltical wing of the White House. I'm afraid that Mr. Mukasey as Attorney General would be more of the same."

As on FISA, Dodd is again staking out a forward position on a critical legal and Constitutional question facing the country in a way sure to win him plaudits from Dem activists. What will the other Dem Senators running for President say on this?

Mitt Romney is picking up a huge endorsement in New Hampshire. The New Hampshire Union Leader is reporting that New Hampshire's senior U.S. Senator Judd Gregg will join Romney's campaign today, accompanying the candidate when he officially files for the primary.

A new Obama ad in Iowa shows the candidate talking to a small group of people are Social Security, and calling for an honest discussion about the problems that the program faces:

"I don't want to just put my finger out to the wind and see what the polls say," Obama declares. "I want to bring the country together to solve a problem."

(Via Ben Smith.)

A new poll from the University of Iowa shows Mitt Romney continuing to dominate the Republican field in the first caucus, while the Democratic race is a close one between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

Romney leads the GOP with 36.2%, with the others way behind: Rudy Giuliani 13.1%, Mike Huckabee 12.8%, Fred Thompson 11.4%, and John McCain 6%.

Among Dems, Clinton has 28.9%, with Obama at 26.6% and John Edwards with 20%. Bill Richardson is in a distant fourth place with 7.2%, followed by Joe Biden at 5.3%. Hillary leads among women with 33%, followed by Obama at 26.5% and Edwards' 16.8%. Among Men, Obama leads with 26.7%, with Edwards at 25% and Clinton with 22.5%.

The poll represents a six-point decline for Edwards since August, while Hillary has climbed four points and Obama has shot up by seven points.