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October 21, 2007 - October 27, 2007

Edwards Visits All 99 Iowa Counties

John Edwards has demonstrated just how committed he is to winning Iowa with an important milestone. His visit today in Franklin County marked the fulfillment of his promise to tour all 99 counties in the state.

Bear in mind that some corners of western Iowa are overwhelmingly Republican, but Edwards has made sure to visit those, too — after all, although most people there are Republicans, some are Democrats, and they can go to the caucus, too.



Family Research Council Faults Brownback For Pro-Rudy Comments

Today we've been chronicling the fallout from the surprising remarks made yesterday by conservative Senator Sam Brownback, who startled a lot of people in GOP primary politics by saying that he'd grown "more comfortable" with Rudy's abortion views after meeting with him face to face.

The latest: A top official with the Family Research Council, a top social conservative group, expressed surprise and dismay at Brownback's dalliance with Rudy in an interview with Election Central.

"The wording is curious," said Charmaine Yoest, a vice president at FRC. "It goes beyond what I would have expected of him."

The larger question right now is whether social conservatives will really desert Rudy should he become the GOP nominee. More and more evidence suggests that conservative leaders who are threatening to bolt are just blowing smoke. For instance, James Bopp, a leading conservative supporter of Mitt Romney, acknowledged earlier today that he too would support Rudy in a general election and predicted that a third-party challenge from the right was unlikely to happen.

The Family Research Council, though, is continuing to insist that social conservatives will in fact desert Rudy in droves -- and doesn't believe Brownback will ultimately support Rudy. "I'll believe he supports Giuliani when I see it," FRC veep Yoest says. "For the pro-life movement as a whole, life is a deal-breaker. There would be no better way to demoralize the GOP base than to nominate Giuliani. It would be a disaster for the Republicans party."

We'll see.


Dem Primary Challenger Pera Goes After Lipinski In New Ad

Illinois Congressional candidate Mark Pera, who is running a primary challenge from the left against Congressman Dan Lipiniski (D), has a new ad set to air next week against the incumbent:

The Chicago Tribune finds some fault with the ad, noting that Lipinski voted for the funding bill that included a timetable for deployment, which President Bush vetoed. The Pera camp says that the bill did not go far enough and left Bush too much discretion in carrying out a timetable, and therefore they can still claim that Lipinski has opposed any timetable to end the American presence in Iraq.

Fox News Demands McCain Stop Using Fox Footage — But Lets Rudy Use It

There an interesting wrinkle in the legal wrangling between John McCain and Fox News. Fox is not only telling the McCain camp to stop using footage from Sunday's debate in an ad — they're telling McCain to remove all Fox content from his Web site.

The funny thing about this, as we explain over at the Horse's Mouth, is that they don't seem to have any problems with other campaigns using Fox debate footage and other content on their sites. In fact, the site for Rudy Giuliani — a longtime friend of Fox head Roger Ailes — is positively festooned with Fox video.

The full story is right here at The Horse's Mouth.


Romney's Son Promotes Him In New Spanish Radio Ad

Mitt Romney has a new Spanish-language radio ad running in Florida, featuring his son Craig.

The younger Romney describes his father as a "conservative who understands and respects Hispanics and particularly Cuban exiles and others who have come to our country in search of liberty and opportunity."

Check out the ad after the jump, along with English and Spanish scripts.

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Biden Slams Both Hillary And Obama On Kyl-Lieberman

Joe Biden has a new press release out regarding the current arguments about the Kyl-Lieberman Amendment — and he goes after both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, on the grounds that Hillary voted for it and Obama didn't actually show up.

"Unlike Sen. Clinton, I don’t trust this administration to follow the plain meaning of the law," Biden says. "And unlike Sen. Obama, I believe this was a vitally important vote – not one to miss and then complain about later."

Check out the full statement after the jump.

(Via Ben Smith.)

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Paul To Launch Big Ad Buy And Tour In New Hampshire

Ron Paul will be taking advantage of his recent fundraising success by launching a renewed push in New Hampshire.

Beginning Monday, the Paul campaign will begin running a new ad campaign in the state, costing about $1.1 million Additionally, he has four trips to the state planned for November, plus an 11-day tour scheduled for December.

Paul's libertarianism is in many ways a good fit for the state. Combined with his anti-war position, the campaign hopes to further boost his chances by getting registered Democrats to re-register as independents so they could vote for him in the Republican primary.

Craig To Argue Foot-Tapping A Constitutional Right

Larry Craig is now taking yet another path in his quest to legally absolve himself: He is legally arguing that the law under which he was arrested and subsequently pled guilty to disorderly conduct in a men's room is in fact unconstitutional.

This puts Craig with an odd ally for a conservative Republican: The ACLU, who argued in an amicus brief that foot-tapping and hand gestures alone, absent a real sexual act, were protected by the First Amendment.

Craig's lawyers will file their briefs by mid-December, and have asked to make oral arguments before the appeals court in St. Paul.

McCain Camp Ducks Question Of Whether He'll Vote For Musakey

Earlier today, we asked if John McCain plans to vote for Michael Mukasey for attorney general in light of Mukasey's hedging about whether waterboarding constitutes torture. After all, McCain strongly condemns waterboarding, says that it unequivocally is torture, and he publicly rebuked Rudy Giuliani on this very subject.

Well, the Huffington Post asked the question directly, and they didn't get a straight answer. "The Judiciary Committee process is ongoing and Sen. McCain believes that Judge Mukasey deserves an up-or-down vote based on his qualifications for the office of Attorney General," a McCain aide told the HuffPo in an e-mail.

Poll: Chambliss Ahead But Potentially Vulnerable Against Cleland

A new poll from Republican firm InsisderAdvantage finds that Senator Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) could possibly be vulnerable against former Senator Max Cleland (D-GA), whom he defeated in a bitter campaign in 2002. Chambliss leads Cleland 36%-24% in the poll, with a very high 40% undecided rate.

"My guess is that a well-funded Cleland campaign would still be an underdog, but would have more than a legitimate chance of potentially pulling off an upset," wrote InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery, "given the fact that among independent voters, Chambliss led by only 7 points with some 38 percent stating that they were undecided."

Cleland has not given any indication that he's looking at the race.

Top Conservative Romney Supporter: I'd Support Rudy In General Election

A lot of people are holding out hope that if Rudy wins the GOP nomination social conservatives will organize a third party challenge from the right that will split the Republican Party. Prominent social conservative leaders have been suggesting as much lately in various forums.

Well, this isn't going to give people holding out for this very much hope.

As I noted below, a top conservative backer of Mitt Romney, the prominent conservative attorney James Bopp, told me in an interview that he was outraged that conservative Senator Sam Brownback is dallying with pro-choice Rudy.

But that isn't all Bopp said. He also told me that he thinks that if Rudy wins the nomination, a third-party challenge just isn't a serious possiblitiy -- and even said he himself would back Rudy.

"I think there are people who would consider voting for a minor party candidate rather than Giuliani if he got the nomination," Bopp told me. "Frankly I'm not one of those. I don't think the idea of a third party is being seriously considered by anyone."

Asked how he could bring himself to vote for the pro-choice Rudy in a general election, Bopp said that a Hillary victory is unthinkable.

"I'm not prepared to surrender in the war on terror and have terror attacks on major cities in the U.S.," Bopp said. "Surrendering in the war on terror means the destruction of American civilation. Between the two of them I'm going to support the nominee of the Republican party." He added, however, that he was still working hard for Romney "to prevent us from having that difficult choice."

This is not exactly on message with the Romney campaign, obviously. The Romney camp needs to encourage the idea that a third party challenge is likely in order to make Rudy seem unelectable. To hear a top Romney supporter saying that such a challenge is unlikely and that he could even vote for Rudy in a general election has got to be unwelcome to Romney.

Top Brownback Supporter: He Might Support Rudy In Order to Defeat Hillary

As noted below, conservative Senator Sam Brownback startled a lot of people in GOP Primary politics by saying that he he's grown "more comfortable" with Rudy's abortion views after meeting with him. A Brownback endorsement of Rudy would be big, because it would mean he's succeeding in winning over parts of the party -- adamantly pro-life factions -- who should be hostile to him.

How is this possible? The Catholic News Agency sheds a bit of light on the situation:

According to Jay Heine, Brownback's political director in Iowa, an endorsement could happen because Brownback and many of his supporters believe Giuliani has the best chance of defeating Senator Hillary Clinton, the expected Democratic nominee.

So, here a top political supporter of Brownback is saying that Brownback and "many of his supporters" think Rudy has the best chance of defeating Hillary, and hence may be able to overlook his pro-choice views. If true, that suggests that Rudy's argument may be working among at least some social conservatives.

The article also notes that Brownback's dalliance with Rudy has left some members of Catholics for Brownback "outraged." That's as you'd expect. What's surprising is that the outrage isn't preventing Brownback from very seriously suggesting he'd back a pro-choicer. The whole thing really is eye-opening.

McCain Camp Rolls Out New Ad Against Hillary And Woodstock

John McCain has a retooled version of his anti-Hillary, anti-hippies ad. The new ad was made as a result of Fox News demands that the campaign stop using footage of McCain from one of their debates.

"It was a cultural event that defined a generation. Worthy of fond memories," the narrator says mockingly over B-roll of some dirty hippies. "But worthy of a million of your tax dollars to build a museum? Hillary Clinton thinks so. John McCain disagrees."

Bopp, Top Social Conservative Supporter Of Romney, Lashes Out At Brownback For Pro-Rudy Comments

One of the big stories of the day in GOP primary politics is conservative Senator Sam Brownback's new and eyebrow-raising assertion yesterday that he is suddenly "much more comfortable" than before about Rudy's abortion views. Brownback said this after meeting with Rudy yesterday.

Now there's been another key development in the story.

Jim Bopp, one of Mitt Romney's top social conservative supporters, just lashed out repeatedly at Brownback in an interview with me for his kind words about Rudy's abortion views, accusing Brownback in scathing terms of putting "personal benefit" before the pro-life cause.

"There's obviously something more going on here than fidelity to the pro-life cause," said Bopp, a legendary pro-life activist and lawyer who is an important voice for Romney because he vouches for his conservatism. "Brownback is angling for some personal political benefit by cozying up to Giuliani."

Bopp's stinging criticism of Brownback is somewhat surprising, because the support of Brownback, who recently dropped out of the Presidential race, is coveted by GOP candidates such as Romney because it would shore up their conservative credentials. Romney and Rudy are engaged in a heated war over the evangelical and social conservative vote.

Brownback's dalliance with Rudy, Bopp said, is "particularly surprising in light of his unwillingness to accept Romney's conversion, which happened several years ago. Now he is willing to accept Giuliani's statements of the last day or so."

"Giuliani is unequivocal -- he wants abortion to be legal," Bopp continued. "Brownback claimed that the raison d'etre of his campaign was protecting human life. "So the only way that you can look at what he is saying now and what he is doing now is that he is prepared to compromise the pro-life movement and cause to advance his own personal political agenda."

The suggestion here is that Brownback is cozying up to Rudy because he thinks the Mayor is on his way to winning the GOP nomination -- and that he's willing to throw the pro-life movement under the bus to be with the winner.

More soon.

Poll: Romney Leads In New Hampshire — Thompson At The Back Of The Pack

A new Rasmussen poll has Mitt Romney still ahead in the New Hampshire primary:

Romney 28%
Giuliani 19%
McCain 16%
Huckabee 10%
Thompson 6%

Notice how Fred Thompson appears to have really fallen flat in the key primary state.

Hillary Celebrates Birthday With $1.5 Million Fundraiser

Today is Hillary Clinton's 60th birthday, and she celebrated last night with a fundraiser that took in an estimated $1.5 million.

The event was held in New York City at the Beacon Theater, featuring Billy Crystal, Elvis Costello, and the Wallflowers as the headline entertainment. Tickets ranged from a $100 campaign donation, up to $2,300.

McCain Sharply Rebukes Rudy For Pro-Torture Comments

Senator John McCain, who is perhaps the most forceful (and one of the only) anti-torture voices in his party, has sharply rebuked Rudy in an interview for suggesting yesterday that he didn't know what waterboarding is and that extreme interrogation techniques might be defensible in some circumstances.

McCain offered his comments about Rudy and waterboarding in an interview with The New York Times:

“All I can say is that it was used in the Spanish Inquisition, it was used in Pol Pot’s genocide in Cambodia, and there are reports that it is being used against Buddhist monks today,” Mr. McCain, who spent more than five years in a North Vietnamese prison camp, said in a telephone interview.

Of presidential candidates like Mr. Giuliani, who say that they are unsure whether waterboarding is torture, Mr. McCain said: “They should know what it is. It is not a complicated procedure. It is torture.”

On Wednesday, Rudy said that he was in favor of "aggressive questioning" of terror suspects, adding that the question of whether waterboarding was defensible "depends on who does it. Rudy also blamed the liberal media for his failure to articulate a clear position, claiming that the media doesn't offer an honest definition of what waterboarding is.

Relatedly, here's an intriguing question: Does Romney know what waterboarding is? Does he think it's defensible in certain circumstances? What about the rest of the GOP candidates?

Late Update: Think Progress asks a good question: Given his opposition to torture, will McCain vote to confirm Mukasey?

Dem Congressman McNulty Retiring

Congressman Michael McNulty (D-NY) will reportedly announce his retirement from the House at the end of this term. McNulty was first elected from his solidly Democratic district in 1988, and it is not expected to be a swing seat next year.

On possibility for the retirement, according to the Associated Press, is that McNulty survived childhood polio and has been suffering from apparent mobility problems in recent years.

McNulty becomes the first Congressional Democrat this cycle to retire, compared to the much higher number of Republicans who are stepping down. The other two open Democratic House seats are those of Mark Udall (CO) and Tom Allen (ME), who are running for the Senate. Those seats are also expected to remain safely in the Dem column.

Brownback "Much More Comfortable" With Rudy

Sam Brownback emerged from his meeting with Rudy Giuliani yesterday with an apparent sense of optimism about the pro-choice Republican.

"I'm much more comfortable," said Brownback. "Justices are key. He's stated publicly many times about his support for strict constructionists like, I believe he said Roberts. John Roberts is a personal friend."



Poll: Congress' Approval Low, But People Likely To Re-Elect Incumbents

The latest Fox News poll illustrates the problem of reading too much into Congress' political fortunes on the basis of the institution's overall approval.

On the one hand, the approval rating stands at 25%, with 54% disapproval. But on the other hand, the poll asked this question: "How about your representative — do you think he or she deserves to be reelected? The result was 50% in favor of reelecting the incumbents, versus only 29% who want somebody news.

In short, it'll take a lot more than even the current disapproval to actually cause major shifts in the House. The current approval/disapproval ratings appear more to be a product of general frustration with the status quo than any desire to change who gets sent there.

Obama And Hillary Release Dueling "Memos" On Iran

One thing that Campaign 2008 has brought is the new "dueling memo" phenomenon, wherein the campaigns release "memos" attacking each other. We think someone else said this already, but pretty soon we're just going to have to call these "memos" for what they are, which is press releases.

Anyway, today brought another dueling memo match between Hillary and Obama, this time on Iran. Obama's memo went out first, arguing that there are real and substantive differences between the two of them on Iran. Hillary's memo followed a few moments ago, arguing that Obama is contradicting himself on Iran.

This latest "memo match" is in sync with the larger battle between the two candidates, in which the Obama camp argues that there are real differences between the candidates, while the Hillary camp claims that Obama's efforts to do this are largely (but not exclusively) self-contradictory attack politics.

Both "memos" are after the jump.

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Analysis: Hillary Surging Among Well-Educated Women

Political analyst Ronald Brownstein explains Hillary's consolidating lead over Obama by pointing to her recent surge among well-educated Democratic women:

Recent polls show Clinton dramatically gaining ground with better-educated Democratic women, both nationally and in the key early state of New Hampshire. More than any other factor, those gains explain why she has nearly doubled her lead over Barack Obama, her closest competitor, in national Gallup polls since summer....

Clinton remains very popular among downscale Democratic women, the Gallup results show, and her newfound strength among college-educated Democratic women is allowing her to cut into the core of Obama's coalition: well-educated Democrats.

Brownstein has been interpreting this race for some time now in light of the "wine track" versus "beer track" divide that's traditionally endured in Dem primary politics, saying that Hillary was doing well among blue collar Dems while Obama was winning over well-educated, more affluent ones. But, Brownstein concludes, Hillary's success among "wine track" women is scrambling this calculus -- and, he claims, is making it tougher and tougher for her rivals to catch her. His full analysis here.

Fox News Orders McCain Camp To Pull Ad

John McCain's new anti-Hillary, anti-hippies ad is now the target of a cease-and-desist letter. The ad used video of McCain receiving a standing ovation at last week's Republican debate on Fox News — and Fox has said they did not give any permission for a campaign to use their debate footage in ads.

The ad is still running, as the McCain campaign maintains that their inclusion of 19 seconds out of a 90-minute debate constitutes fair use. But the lawyers at Fox News say the McCain campaign is without a defense in their commercial use of Fox's video and logo. So this could take a while to sort itself out.

Obama Campaign Letter Defends Choice Of Anti-Gay Pastor, Calls For Dialogue

Barack Obama's campaign has released an open letter from a group of LGBT leaders, plus religious leaders, explaining the pro-gay rights candidate's decision to hold a campaign event with anti-gay pastor Donnie McClurkin, the Huffington Post reports.

The crux of the argument is that Obama is willing and able to reach out to different groups — even those with diametrically opposite views on certain issues — and bring them together for other issues and towards a greater dialogue.

Full letter after the jump.

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Rudy's Man Podhoretz Details His Plans For Attacking Iran

Yesterday we noted that top Rudy foreign policy adviser and neocon death star overloard Norman Podhoretz was spending his spare time briefing Giuliani on the necessity for the commencement of World War IV.

Well, now Podhoretz has done himself one better, revealing in that same interview with The New York Observer that he's got plans for exactly how war with Iran should be carried out:

"The forces are in place and all you have to say is 'go.' said Podhoretz, a father of neoconservatism and a senior advisor to Rudy Giuliani. "You could wake up tomorrow morning" and it could be done.

After acknowledging that he was not a military man, Podhoretz offered that the attack should be carried out by air, with no commitment of ground troops, and the sooner the better...

He said that bombers could be dispatched from two nearby aircraft carriers or missiles could be launched from submarines to take out the roughly 18 known above-ground nuclear facilities.

"We could get all the above grounds ones," he said, adding his opinion that "there is no technical problem about getting them out."

As for the small issue of Iran's military response, Podhoretz observed that it could be mitigated with a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is between the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf.

And thus concludes today's preview of World War IV.

Thompson: America Must Not Lose Against "A Bunch Of Kids" With IED's

During a campaign stop yesterday in South Carolina, Fred Thompson gave a new reason why Americans have to stay committed in Iraq: "We will not be a safer country, we will not be a safer America if the whole world watches us being defeated by a bunch of kids with improvised explosive devices."

The statement is somewhat reminiscent of Lyndon Johnson, who privately demanded some sort of a solution to a war in a "damn little pissant country" — Vietnam.

Hillary Camp's Strategic Dilemma: How To Tout National Polls?

For obvious reasons, Hillary campaign officials frequently tout her growing lead in national polls to argue that she's romping to victory in the primary and is even poised for a great win in the general election. Hillary pollster Mark Penn, for instance, has made that case in a steady stream of campaign memos that are routinely tossed to reporters and pundits like fish to barking seals.

But inside the Hillary camp, advisers say, there's a clear awareness that this strategy of projecting brash confidence via references to national numbers carries real risks. Calling too much attention to national pols could backfire in the all-important early states, by giving rivals an opening to inflate expectations to the point where a modest win or loss will be seen as a letdown. Also worrisome: Suggestions of her inevitability could potentially turn off Iowa voters who traditionally don't like to be told who is running away with the nomination.

"It comes up constantly in conference calls," one Hillary adviser tells Election Central. "You have a constant warning by the campaign to be very worried about expectations. They tout the national polls to boost fundraising and to make the case that she's electable in a general election. But how deep will her support be when the media comes down on her for not meeting expectations in the early states? It's a recurring theme."

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Romney: The Clintons Set Bad Example On Family Values

Mitt Romney has now gone after the Clintons not just on policy, but on their marriage. At a house party in New Hampshire, Romney was asked how he might promote family values if he were elected.

"One of the ways that you help instill, if you will, family values is by having a White House be a place that demonstrates family values," said Romney. "And, you know, I think during the last Clinton presidency, the White House did not demonstrate that in a way that was helpful to our nation's character."

Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson was blunt in his response: "Hillary Clinton needs no lessons on character from a man who switches his positions on a daily basis."

Edwards Uses Bush's Iran Sanctions To Go After Hillary

John Edwards and Barack Obama are right out the gate with statements critical of the sanctions against Iran the State Department announced today — with Edwards using the announcement to go after Hillary, and her vote for the Kyl-Lieberman Amendment.

"Senator Clinton's actions undermine the American people's opposition to war with Iran," Edwards said in his statement. "Today's advancement of the Bush strategy on Iran shows how much we need strong opposition on this issue. I learned my lesson the hard way in 2002, but it appears that others still have some learning to do."

The rest of Edwards' statement and Obama's reaction after the jump.

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Poll: Rudy Ahead In California — But With A Very Small Plurality

A new Field Poll in California shows Rudy Giuliani continuing to lead the Republican pack — but his percentage of the vote has gone down considerably since the last poll.

Rudy leads with 25% support, with the opposition in a three-way tie: Romney 13%, McCain 12%, Thompson 12%. Clearly, Rudy is continuing to benefit from a divided opposition.

In the last Field Poll back in August, Rudy had 35%. Rudy has fallen ten points, while some of the smaller candidates like Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee have gained a few points each.

Iowa Dems Picking January 3

Iowa Democrats are picking January 3, a Thursday, as the date for their caucus, the same day that has already been selected by Iowa Republicans.

The state party's central committee will hold a conference call Sunday night to formally ratify the decision.

This makes it somewhat more likely that the New Hampshire primary will be held the following Tuesday, January 8.

Steny Hoyer Says Some Strong Words Against Telecom Immunity

Some liberals think House Dem leader Steny Hoyer is weak on the telecom immunity issue, but it needs to be said that he has now delivered a speech in which he said some very forceful stuff in opposition to keeping telecom immunity in the revised FISA bill:

"Finally, this legislation is silent on the issue of retroactive immunity for telecommunications companies that possibly violated privacy laws in turning over consumer information – because Congress does not have full access to information about what the companies did.

"Simply stated, it would be grossly irresponsible for Congress to grant blanket immunity for companies without even knowing whether their conduct was legal or not. And, importantly, this view is shared by the Chairman and Ranking Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee.

"Until we understand what legal authorities were used to justify the terrorist surveillance program, there does not appear to be any practicable way to include retroactive immunity in this bill."

Though he appears to be suggesting that his opposition to immunity might be tempered if he gets access to the White House documents that the Senate intel community reviewed before producing a bill containing immunity, this is nonetheless some pretty toughly-worded opposition. The question, as Atrios says, is whether he'll back these words up with legislative action.

Rudy Won't Say Whether Waterboarding Is Torture, Blames Liberal Media

In a town hall meeting in Iowa last night, Rudy Giuliani offered an extended explanation of his views on torture — and refused to say whether he thinks waterboarding constitutes an inappropriate technique.

Rudy also made it clear that he favors "aggressive questioning" of terror suspects, and blamed the liberal media for his refusal to clarify his views of waterboarding, saying the media inaccurately describes what waterboarding is by making it seem unacceptable in all cases.

Check out Rudy's torture comments after the jump — they're pretty eye-opening.

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Mitt Lampoons Rudy's Yankees-Red Sox Flip Flop

On the campaign trail in New Hampshire today, Mitt Romney had a little fun with longtime Yankee fan Rudy Giuliani's recent claim that he's suddenly rooting for the Red Sox to win the series. "Anyone here a Red Sox fan?" Romney asked the crowd, to laughter. "You're one or the other, but probably not both, right?"

The amusing thing here is that Rudy has long tried to lampoon Hillary for her claim that she's a Yankees fan despite growing up in Chicago. Presumably we won't be hearing much of that anymore...

Poll: Hillary And Rudy Way Ahead In Florida

A new Quinnipiac poll of Florida shows Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani continuing to dominate their primaries. On the Democratic side, Hillary leads with 43%, followed by Obama at 18% and Edwards with 12%. Among Democratic respondents who pick a candidate, Hillary has more votes than all the other candidates combined.

On the Republican side, Rudy is ahead and benefitting from a divided opposition. He has 30% support, with Fred Thompson and John McCain tied at 14% apiece, plus Mitt Romney with 12%.

Full general election match-up numbers are available after the jump.

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Tom Davis Officially Takes Himself Out Of Senate Race

Congressman Tom Davis (R-VA) made his intentions clear today about the Senate race, telling reporters that he will not be a candidate. "This is just probably not the right time for me to make any advance and run for the Senate," Davis said.

Davis has not yet said whether he will run for re-election, though an announcement is expected some time after the state legislative elections in November. Davis' wife Jeannemarie Devolites Davis, a state Senator, faces a tough battle from Democratic candidate Chap Petersen.

Former Governor Mark Warner is heavily favored to pick up the seat for the Democrats.

New Reid Staffer Cheers Antiwar Leaders

Susan McCue, a longtime loyalist to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, has just returned to his inner circle in the Senate, a move that is being celebrated by top antiwar leaders who hope that she will be able to steer the Senate in a more aggressively antiwar direction.

"Susan has deep roots in [progressive] communities and they trust her," a Democratic aide tells the Huffington Post. "She's long been Reid's eyes and ears in those and other liberal groups."

Reid had better hope she yields results, as the Senate's failure to halt the Iraq war has caused Congress' popularity to plummet among liberal Dems. It'll be interesting to see whether she can turn things around.

Poll: Hillary Beats The GOP In Minnesota

A new SurveyUSA poll shows Hillary Clinton running well in the general election in Minnesota — but this should not be too shocking, as the state has not voted Republican since 1972:

Clinton (D) 51%, Giuliani (R) 40%
Clinton (D) 57%, Thompson (R) 37%
Clinton (D) 57%, Romney (R) 34%
Clinton (D) 60%, Huckabee (R) 30%
Clinton (D) 50%, McCain (R) 43%
Clinton (D) 61%, Paul (R) 28%
Gore (D) 50%, Giuliani (R) 44%

Hillary Upping Staff In Iowa

The Clinton campaign is gearing up for a massive Iowa presence ahead of the caucus — they're planning on filling 100 new paid staff positions in the state by November 1.

Clinton has been able to take a narrow lead in Iowa in the latest polls, but it remains a tight and shifting race against Barack Obama and John Edwards. Perhaps 100 new pairs of feet on the ground could help to solidify her hold.


Poll: Hillary And Romney Have Comfortable Leads In New Hampshire

A new poll of New Hampshire from St. Anselm College shows Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney continuing to lead their respective primaries.

Among Democrats, Clinton has 43% to Barack Obama's 22%, followed by John Edwards at 14%.

On the Republican side, Romney leads with 32%, ahead of Rudy Giuliani at 22%, John McCain with 15%, and Ron Paul with 7%.

New Dodd Ad Plays Up The White Hair

Chris Dodd's new ad in Iowa features a pair of actors portraying barbers — filmed at an actual barbershop in Iowa — talking about how the candidate managed to get all that white hair.

"Twenty-six years on the Foreign Relations Committee," Dodd says, "oh yeah, that'll do it."

Rudy Meeting Today With Brownback

Rudy Giuliani will be in Washington today to meet with none other than Senator Sam Brownback (R-KS), the social conservative and former presidential candidate who predicted during his withdrawal announcement that a pro-choicer could never win the Republican nomination.

"I'm going to meet with him and I'm going to talk to him and hear what he is specifically saying now because he's changed on a number of the abortion issues," Brownback said. He's changed on partial-birth [abortion] and he ... has said he would appoint strict constructionists."

If Rudy can get an endorsement from Brownback — or at the very least a satisfactory grade — it would definitely help him against Mitt Romney's push to unite social conservatives around an anti-Rudy push.

Poll: Colbert Breaks Into Double Digits As Third-Party Candidate

Although he's only planning to run in the primaries in his native state of South Carolina, a new Rasmussen poll finds that Stephen Colbert might have some pull as a third-party candidate.

In a three-way race with Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani, Hillary has 45%, Rudy 35% — and Colbert breaks double digits to get 13%. With Fred Thompson as the Republican nominee, it's Clinton 46%, Thompson 34%, and Colbert 12%.

Colbert seems to draw most of his support from the GOP column, indicating a real unhappiness among Republican voters — either that, or conservatives who have watched his show really don't get the joke.

Big Gay Rights Group Condemns Obama For Campaign Event With Antigay Singer

The Human Rights Campaign, the country's most prominent gay rights group, has just condemned the Obama campaign for its planned use of an antigay singer at a campaign gospel event, potentially turning what started out as a small controversy on the blogs into an enduring political headache.

“I spoke with Sen. Barack Obama today and expressed to him our community’s disappointment for his decision to continue to remain associated with Rev. McClurkin, an anti-gay preacher who states the need to ‘break the curse of homosexuality,’" Human Rights Campaign President Joe Solomonese said in a statement sent out moments ago.

"There is no gospel in Donnie McClurkin’s message for gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender people and their allies," Solomonese continued. "That’s a message that certainly doesn’t belong on any Presidential candidate’s stage.”

The controversy involving McClurkin, an antigay crusader who has said that homosexuals can be "cured," rapidly ballooned from a tale that first broke on AmericaBlog into a full-blown campaign crisis in a matter of days. Obama campaign officials were bracing today for the release of HRC's statement, after the news broke this morning that HRC was mulling such a move, and rival campaigns were rubbing their hands together in anticipation of it.

According to sources familiar with the fast-evolving situation, the Obama campaign has been in discussions with the HRC throughout the day, and had sought to delay the HRC's release of a statement so it could settle on a way to deal with the crisis.

According to sources, HRC offered various suggestions to the Obama camp to avoid criticism by the group, among them dropping McClurkin from the gospel act. But the Obama campaign said that there were too many logistical difficulties attendant with such a move, sources said. Dumping McClurkin, of course, could also have political repercussions, as the South Carolina gospel campaign concerts come amid an intense battle for the state's black vote.

One intriguing idea that was privately floated, according to sources, was the possibility of having a gay gospel group as the opening act for the concerts. The idea, sources said, was that this might prompt the antigay McClurkin to pull himself out of the concerts, thus solving the problem. It's not clear where that idea originated, and at any rate it didn't go anywhere.

The Obama campaign ultimately settled on a slightly different solution, though this didn't mollify HRC: It has decided to have an openly gay minister open the gospel shows. Obama advisers informed the campaign's top gay supporters of this decision on a conference call this afternoon.

After it became obvious that HRC would be releasing their statement today, HRC and the Obama campaign set up a private call for Obama himself to talk to HRC chief Solomonese. The call was set for 5:20 P.M. Solomonese thanked Obama for the gay minister idea but expressed his disappointment in the continued use of McClurkin. Soon after, HRC's statement went out.

The full statement is after the jump.

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New McCain Ad Uses "Tied Up" Joke

John McCain's new ad, which uses footage from last week's Republican debate, seems tailor-made for its New Hampshire audience. It combines his military credentials with his anti-pork record — and it rips on hippies and Hillary Clinton, too:

Dodd Campaign "Pleased" With Obama's Statement Backing Filibuster Of FISA Bill

Dodd spokesman Hari Sevugan sends over the following statement on Obama's support for filibustering any FISA bill with telecom immunity, and Hillary's refusal to go that far:

There is some confusion as to what Senators Clinton and Obama meant in their statements, and we are pleased that Senator Obama has attempted to be more definitive in his position today.

We hope that other candidates will follow Chris Dodd’s lead in unequivocally stating that they will filibuster any FISA bill that contains retroactive immunity for telecom companies -- because this issue demands clarity.

Durbin Attacks Tancredo For "Bigotry And Hatred"

Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL) went to the Senate floor today and blasted Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO), accusing him of "bigotry and hatred" over Tancredo contacting Immigrations and Customs Enforcement yesterday and demanding a raid on a Durbin press conference at which Tancredo believed illegal aliens would be present.

Durbin said the actual participants at his press conference, to promote his stalled immigration bill, had been checked and were legally in the country — and attacked Tancredo for not looking into that.

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Gregg Skipping GOP Fundraiser Over Delegate Dispute

Senator Judd Gregg (R-NH) is not being subtle about his displeasure with the RNC's decision to strip his state of half its delegates due to their early primary. Gregg has now cancelled his scheduled appearance tonight at a fundraiser for his state GOP, because it would have meant sharing the co-hosting honors with RNC Chairman Mike Duncan.

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Obama Camp Says It: He'll Support Filibuster Of Any Bill Containing Telecom Immunity

It's official: Obama will back a filibuster of any Senate FISA legislation containing telecom immunity, his campaign has just told Election Central. The Obama campaign has just sent over the following statement from spokesman Bill Burton:

"To be clear: Barack will support a filibuster of any bill that includes retroactive immunity for telecommunications companies."

As we reported here yesterday, MoveOn and a dozen top liberal bloggers were preparing to wage an aggressive campaign today to pressure Obama and Hillary to say that they'll support Chris Dodd's vow to filibuster any Senate FISA bill containing telecom immunity. And late yesterday both Obama and Hillary put out statements saying that they'd back Dodd's threatened filibuster of the current legislation that's just come out of the Senate intel committee.

Those statements, however, lacked the clarity that immunity opponents have been looking for, so today the MoveOn and lib blogger campaign has been in full swing. MoveOn emailed members this morning urging them to call Obama and Hillary and...

Tell him/her the public is counting on him/her to filibuster any bill that gives immunity to phone companies that broke the law.

Now we have Obama's answer: He'll support a filibuster of any such bill.

When informed of Obama's decision, MoveOn expressed relief. "Excellent -- this is the kind of leadership we need to see from the Democratic candidates," MoveOn spokesman Adam Green told Election Central. "Dodd, Biden, and Obama all agree. Will Clinton get on board?"

Top Rudy Foreign Policy Says Giuliani Is Preparing For "World War IV"

Be afraid. Be very, very afraid.

Check out what nattering nabob of neoconservativism Norman Podhoretz, a top foreign policy adviser to Rudy, has just confided to The New York Observer about a recent private conversation he had with the candidate:

Norman Podhoretz believes that America needs to go to war soon with Iran. As far as he knows, Rudy Giuliani thinks the same thing.

“I was asked to come in and give him a briefing on the war, World War IV,” said Mr. Podhoretz, a founding father of neoconservatism and leading foreign policy adviser to Mr. Giuliani. “As far as I can tell there is very little difference in how he sees the war and how I see it.”

So unless I missed something here, Podhoretz explicitly says that he "was asked" to brief Rudy on "World War IV," and that Rudy is with him on this and is even preparing for this fourth global showdown against Iran and the rest of the Islamofascists.

You know, maybe someone should ask Rudy's campaign about this.

At the end of the Observer interview with Podhoretz comes the following about his views:

America should be working to overthrow governments in Saudi Arabia, Syria and Egypt and “every one of the despotic regimes in that region, by force if necessary and by nonmilitary means if possible,” he said. “They are fronts of the war. You can’t do everything at once. And to have toppled two of those regimes in five years or six years is I think a major achievement. And maybe George Bush won’t be able to carry it further, but I think he will. It may have just been given to him to start act one of the five-act play.”

That's a lot of countries to invade, but then again, the man is calling for World War IV, so maybe this counts as truth in advertising.

In New Ad, Romney Talks Spending Audits And Cuts

Mitt Romney has a new ad set to begin running tomorrow in South Carolina, in which the candidate pitches himself as a businessman who will audit spending in Washington:

"In business, you only spend what you have. In Washington, government always spends more. It shouldn't be that way," Romney says. "I'm Mitt Romney. I come from the business world – where turning around companies taught me how to manage budgets."

Obama Camp Pushes Back Hard Against Washington Post

We bow to no one in our respect for Washington Post columnist Harold Meyerson, but today the Obama campaign is accusing him of botching a key fact.

In this morning's column, which contrasts "Wall Street" and "Main Street" Democrats, Meyerson wrote that "the younger masters of the universe" on Wall Street "give big-time to such Democrats as Barack Obama" because he voted for the much-maligned bankruptcy bill.

In response, Obama spokesman Bill Burton just blasted out an email accusing Meyerson of getting it wrong, adding: "If you check out the vote and his floor statement at the time, you’ll see that he not only opposed it but also spoke in very forceful terms about the problems he had with it, earning the praise of Senator Ted Kennedy."

As we've noted here before, one of the more interesting subplots of Campaign 2008 is the increasingly aggressive pushback against the media we're seeing from the Dem primary candidates. This is more of the same.

Late Update: David Sirota says that Meyerson is actually in the right on this.

Late Late Update: A reader writes in to question Sirota's take, pointing out that Obama voted against the bankruptcy bill and for every Democratic amendment except the one he singles out.

Poll: Hillary And Rudy Lead Nationally — But Many Conservatives Could Go Third Party

The new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll shows Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani leading their parties by a wide margin — but there's a good reason for Rudy to be cautious.

On the Democratic side, Hillary leads with 48%, almost triple her nearest opponent — Barack Obama has 17%, followed by John Edwards at 13%.

Among Republicans, Rudy has 32%, with Fred Thompson at 15%, John McCain 13%, and Mitt Romney 11%. The bad news for Rudy: Among self-described conservatives, 38% say that there should be a third-party candidate if the GOP nominates a pro-choicer.

In the match-ups for the general election, the Dems lead by narrow or wide margins in all cases:

Clinton (D) 48%, McCain (R) 38%
Clinton (D) 49%, Romney (R) 34%
Clinton (D) 47%, Giuliani (R) 41%
Clinton (D) 49%, Thompson (R) 38%
Obama (D) 44%, McCain (R) 36%
Obama (D) 42%, Romney (R) 32%
Obama (D) 43%, Giuliani (R) 40%
Obama (D) 46%, Thompson (R) 31%

Kerrey's Decision Not To Run Is Huge Blow To National Dems

The decision by former Senator Bob Kerrey (D-NE) not to run again represents a huge blow to National Democratic strategists, and leaves the Republicans heavily favored to hold on to the open seat.

The current frontrunner is former Governor Mike Johanns, who resigned from President Bush's cabinet as secretary of agriculture to make the race. Johanns faces a primary from state Attorney General Jon Bruning and businessman Pat Flynn, but it remains his race to lose. If the Democrats were to find a strong candidate, their hopes would have to rest on Bruning defeating Johanns.

The Democratic bench in Nebraska is very thin. Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey was courted by the Dems, but has shown a reluctance to get in the race. The next possible candidate would be rancher Scott Kleeb, who ran unsuccessfully last year in the Third Congressional District.

One other thing worth noting: An inability to win this seat would essentially end any hopes by Democrats of reaching 60 Senate seats this cycle.

Breaking: Bob Kerrey Won't Run For Senate

Former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D-NE) announced today that he will not run for the Senate seat of retiring Republican Chuck Hagel. In a statement released by the Nebraska Democratic Party, Kerrey cited family reasons for his decision.

Kerrey was widely seen as the strongest possible Democrat for the race. His decision leaves former Gov. Mike Johanns (R) as the favorite.

Poll: Hillary Ahead Of Republicans In Wisconsin

A new SurveyUSA poll shows Hillary Clinton leading the Republicans in Wisconsin, with only John McCain able to really make it close:

Clinton (D) 48%, Giuliani (R) 41%
Clinton (D) 53%, Thompson (R) 41%
Clinton (D) 52%, Romney (R) 38%
Clinton (D) 54%, Huckabee (R) 35%
Clinton (D) 46%, McCain (R) 45%
Clinton (D) 54%, Paul (R) 33%

Wisconsin has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1988, though the results have often been very narrow.

Tancredo Calls ICE Against Durbin Press Conference

Although he's only in the House, Tom Tancredo has taken his fight against illegal immigration to the Senate side — by calling Immigration and Customs Enforcement and asking them to raid a press conference yesterday by Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL), at which Tancredo mistakenly believed illegal aliens would be attending.

Durbin was presenting a bill that would confer legal status upon illegal immigrants who have graduated high school and will attend college or serve in the Armed Forces for two years. Accompanying Durbin were three immigrant students, all of whom are in the United States legally on temporary visas. No action was taken by ICE.

"If we can't enforce our laws inside the building where American laws are made, where can we enforce them?" Tancredo said in a statement.

Report: Virginia GOP Rep. Tom Davis Mulls Retirement

It's already been reported that Congressman Tom Davis (R-VA) has ruled out a Senate run, but now GOP sources are saying that he's thinking of quitting the House, too.

If Davis does choose to retire — and an announcement could come as early as Thursday — his rapidly blue-trending suburban seat would stand a good chance of falling to the Democrats next year.

Poll: Hillary And Thompson Lead In Georgia

A new poll of Georgia from Republican firm Strategic Vision shows Hillary Clinton and Fred Thompson leading their respective primaries by comfortable margins.

On the Democratic side, Hillary has 40%, followed by Barack Obama with 27% and John Edwards at 11%. Among Republicans, Thompson leads with 39%, followed by Rudy at 20%, and no other candidate over ten points.

Also, Senator Saxby Chambliss (R) leads all his Democratic opponents by margins of around 30 points.

Iowa "Butter-Cow Lady" Promotes Obama In Radio Ad

Barack Obama's new radio ad in Iowa features an interesting local celebrity: Norma "Duffy" Lyon, known for her enormous butter sculptures that are put on display at the state fairs, promotes Obama's agenda for rural America.

"Barack Obama's got a real plan for rural America. And it's gutsy, because it looks out for us, not lobbyists," Lyon says, detailing Obama's proposals to cut farm subsidies for factory farms and to reduce or eliminate income taxes for senior citizens.

"But the best part is he listened, and knows our kids need opportunity here in Iowa so they don't have to leave home to follow their dreams — even that if that dream is 500 pounds of butter, shaped like a cow."

The ad can be heard after the jump.

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Hillary Says She Would Support Filibuster Of Intel Committee's Telecom Immunity Bill

At a press availability in Colorado a little while ago, Hillary commented on the Senate FISA bill and said that she would support a filibuster of the current legislation that's just emerged from the Senate intel committee, which contains telecom immunity.

Here's the transcript, which was just sent to us moments ago by her campaign:

Q: Can you discuss your position on the reauthorization of the FISA bill?

HRC: I am troubled by the concerns that have been raised by the recent legislation reported out of the Intelligence Committee. I haven't seen it so I can't express an opinion about it. But I don't trust the Bush Administration with our civil rights and liberties. So I'm going to study it very hard. As matters stand now, I could not support it and I would support a filibuster absent additional information coming forward that would convince me differently.

Dodd has said that he will filibuster any legislation with telecom immunity in it. As reported below, MoveOn and around 10 top liberal bloggers are preparing to wage a campaign against Hillary and Obama demanding that they say they'll support a hold on, and filibuster of, any such legislation, not just this specific bill. Obama issued a statement earlier today saying that he would support a filibuster of the current bill.

Obama: I Would Support Dodd's Filibuster

Obama spokesman Bill Burton sends over this statement in response to our story saying that MoveOn and the top liberal bloggers are teaming up to press Hillary and Obama to get Chris Dodd's back on the threatened filibuster:

"Senator Obama has serious concerns about many provisions in this bill, especially the provision on giving retroactive immunity to the telephone companies. He is hopeful that this bill can be improved by the Senate Judiciary Committee. But if the bill comes to the Senate floor in its current form, he would support a filibuster of it."

No direct mention of Dodd, but clearly supporting Dodd's idea of filibustering this bill. We obviously don't know what the ultimate bill will look like, but Obama can't really be expected to comment on theoreticals, and this represents at least a quasi-declaration of opposition to telecom immunity in general.

Late Update: Just to clarify, this statement, like Hillary's, in no way represents support for Dodd's threat to filibuster any bill containing telecom immunity.

MoveOn And Top Bloggers To Launch Campaign Pressuring Hillary And Obama To Back Dodd On FISA

Another interesting twist in the Dodd-FISA story.

In a move that will up the pressure on Hillary and Barack Obama to stand firm against the Senate telecom immunity FISA bill, MoveOn and a dozen top progressive blogs will launch an all-out campaign tomorrow to pressure the two Senators into publicly declaring their support for Chris Dodd's threat to place a hold on and filibuster the bill, Election Central has learned.

MoveOn spokesman Adam Green tells me that the group will send out an email to "thousands" of its members tomorrow morning, and thousands more throughout the day, asking them to call the offices of Hillary and Obama and demand that they publicly affirm their support for Dodd.

"We'll be asking Obama and Clinton to publicly get Chris Dodd's back and say in a statement that they will explicitly support his hold and filibuster," Green tells me. "Pretty much this is the exact same ask made to Joe Biden in a Washington Post chat. The question was, Will you join Chris Dodd? He said Yes."

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Obama Radio Ad In South Carolina Stars Jesse Jackson, Jr.

Barack Obama has a new radio ad targeting black voters in South Carolina. The ad features Illinois Congressman Jesse Jackson, Jr., whose father won the state's primary in 1988 on the strength of African-American support.

"Once, South Carolina voted for my father, and sent a strong message to the nation," Congressman Jackson says in the ad. "Next year, you can send more than a message — you can launch a president."

The ad can be heard after the jump.

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New Obama Ad: He Chose Social Change Over Money

A new Obama ad running in New Hampshire plays up the candidate's dedication to public service and social change, working as a community organizer in Chicago when he could have chosen to do something far more lucrative:

"It was inspiring, absolutely inspiring, to see someone as brilliant as Barack Obama, as successful, someone who could've written his ticket on Wall St.," observes Harvard Law professor Laurence Tribe, "take all of the talent and all of the learning, and decide to devote it to the community and making people's lives better."

(Via Ben Smith.)

Poll: Edwards Creeping Up On Obama For Second Place

The Los Angeles Times has a poll coming out later this afternoon, and while specific numbers aren't available, the paper's political blog has this teaser:

...in line with other national surveys of Democratic-leaning voters, our poll not only finds Hillary Clinton close to lapping the field but Obama being challenged by John Edwards for second place.

Between this, the SEIU endorsements for Edwards, and a recent David Yepsen column saying that Edwards is still in the running, one wonders if soon we'll be hearing a "don't count Edwards out" boomlet.

Meanwhile, on the GOP side, the poll shows Rudy with a comfortable lead, and what's more, there's apparently no clear contender for second place, either. We'll bring you the numbers when they're available.

Kucinich Office Has No Comment On UFO Story

Dennis Kucinich's Congressional and campaign offices have not yet denied Shirley MacLaine's claim that Kucinich "heard directions in his mind" from a UFO while visiting her home in Washington state.

"I am not commenting on that," said Natalie Laber, press secretary for the candidate's Congressional office, when asked by Election Central.

Kucinich's presidential campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.



Mitt Romney Wins Contest For Dumbest Obama-Osama Mixup Yet

Does this count as a gaffe? The Associated Press catches Mitt Romney, in a slip of the tongue, saying that Barack Obama is the organizing force behind the terrorists attacking American troops in Iraq:

"Actually, just look at what Osam — Barack Obama — said just yesterday. Barack Obama, calling on radicals, jihadists of all different types, to come together in Iraq. That is the battlefield. ... It's almost as if the Democratic contenders for president are living in fantasyland. Their idea for jihad is to retreat, and their idea for the economy is to also retreat. And in my view, both efforts are wrongheaded."

Romney, apparently, was referring to the recently-released Osama videotape here. Ben Smith got the Obama camp to react:

Apparently, Mitt Romney can switch names just as casually as he switches positions, but what's wrongheaded is continuing a misguided war in Iraq that has left America less safe. It's time to end the divisiveness and fear-mongering that is at the heart of Governor Romney's campaign.

Romney spokesman Kevin Madden says that Romney was indeed referring to the Osama video, but that he "misspoke...it was just a brief mixup."

No doubt. Still, this surely qualifies as the most boneheaded scrambling of the Obama and Osama names of the entire campaign. Congratulations, Mitt!

Poll: Fletcher Down By 20, With Two Weeks To Go

With only two weeks to go until Election Day in Kentucky, a new SurveyUSA poll shows Governor Ernie Fletcher (R) on his way to a landslide defeat. Democratic candidate Steve Beshear is ahead of Fletcher by a 58%-38% margin.

This is statistically unchanged from a SurveyUSA poll two weeks ago, which had Beshear ahead 56%-40%. The incumbent has been consistently unable to exceed 40% in the polls since the May primary.

Hillary Promises Systematic Review Of Bush's Hoarding Of Executive Power

On the newly-launched Guardian America Web site, editor Michael Tomasky has published an interesting new interview with Hillary. The news in it is that she vows as President to conduct a systematic review of the ways in which the Bush administration has hoarded executive power -- a review, she claims, that could actually cause her to relinquish some of those powers.

Tomasky has also posted a transcript of the interview. Here's the key exchange:

I want to start with some questions about foreign policy and terrorism. If you become president you'll enter the White House with far more power than, say, your husband had. What is your view of this? And what specific powers might you relinquish as president, or renegotiate with Congress -- for example the power to declare a US citizen an enemy combatant?

Well, I think it is clear that the power grab undertaken by the Bush-Cheney administration has gone much further than any other president and has been sustained for longer. Other presidents, like Lincoln, have had to take on extraordinary powers but would later go to the Congress for either ratification or rejection. But when you take the view that they're not extraordinary powers, but they're inherent powers that reside in the office and therefore you have neither obligation to request permission nor to ask for ratification, we're in a new territory here.

And I think that I'm gonna have to review everything they've done because I've been on the receiving end of that. There were a lot of actions which they took that were clearly beyond any power the Congress would have granted or that in my view that was inherent in the constitution. There were other actions they've taken which could have obtained congressional authorization but they deliberately chose not to pursue it as a matter of principle.

I guess I'm asking, can a president, once in the White House, actually give up some of this power in the name of constitutional principle?

Oh, absolutely, Michael. I mean that has to be part of the review that I undertake when I get to the White House, and I intend to do that.

Camp Hillary is clearly happy with the interview, perhaps because it cuts against the power-mad Hillary stereotype and because her condemnation of the Bush-Cheney abuses of executive power will resonate with Dem primary voters.

The promise of a review of these abuses is clearly newsworthy, though unfortunately the interview is short on specific suggestions as to what areas she might be willing to relinquish power in. For instance, asked directly by Tomasky whether AG nominee Michael Mukasey's recent hedging on whether waterboarding constitutes torture would lead her to vote against him, she demurred.

She did say, however, that some of Mukasey's answers "about presidential authority with respect to interrogation" concern her. Of course, the proof of this will reside in her vote, and she's continually stopped short of condemning specific torture techniques.

Read the full interview here.

Rematch On Tap In Washington Governor's Race

Former state Sen. Dino Rossi (R-WA) will announce his plans to challenge Washington Gov. Christine Gregoire (D) next year.

Rossi lost a highly contentious bid to Gregoire in 2004 by a 133-vote margin, after a series of recounts and a court challenge tipped the election to the Democrat. Given the closeness of their previous match-up, observers expect this contest to be a hard-fought one.

Stark Apologizes After Censure Bid Fails

The House just failed by a 196-173 margin to censure Rep. Pete Stark (D-CA) for his remarks last week that Bush was sending American troops to Iraq to have their "heads blown off for the president's amusement." The resolution stated that Stark “by his despicable conduct, has dishonored himself and brought discredit to the House and merits the censure of the House for the same.”

Moments after the vote, an emotional Stark apologized for his comments.

"I want to apologize to my colleagues, many of whom I have offended," Stark said. He also apologized to "the president and his family" and "the troops."

"I hope that with this apology, I return to being as insignificant as I should be," he finished in an emotional, breaking voice.

Obama Camp Works To Quell Controversy Over Antigay Singer

Yesterday we reported that the Obama camp was coming under fire for planning a campaign event that is to include gospel singer and antigay crusader Donnie McClurkin. Obama released a statement yesterday strongly denouncing McClurkin's views.

Nonetheless, it appears that McClurkin is still set to appear at the campaign event, keeping the controversy going. And now the Obama camp has set up a private conference call in order to tamp down the outrage building among his gay supporters about this. "They're trying to put out the fire," one gay Obama backer says. "The question is, Will he hold someone accountable?" Stay tuned.

Poll: Hillary Beating Most Republicans In Washington State

A new SurveyUSA poll in Washington state finds Hillary Clinton running well ahead of the Republicans, with only John McCain able to put up a fight:

Clinton (D) 50%, Giuliani (R) 43%
Clinton (D) 52%, Thompson (R) 42%
Clinton (D) 54%, Romney (R) 39%
Clinton (D) 57%, Huckabee (R) 34%
McCain (R) 47%, Clinton (D) 46%
Clinton (D) 55%, Paul (R) 36%

The state has not voted Republican for president since the 1984 Reagan landslide.

Self-Funding Dem Candidate Drops Out Of Texas Senate Race

Democrat Mikal Watts, a wealthy trial lawyer and a candidate against Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), has pulled out of the race today. National Democrats had hoped that Watts would tap into his large personal finances to make a credible run against Cornyn, who has lackluster approval ratings in an otherwise deeply red state.

Watts' decision effectively cedes the nomination to state Rep. Rick Noriega (D), a Lt. Colonel in the Texas National Guard.

(Via Burnt Orange Report.)

Hillary Opens Up To Yepsen About Her Difficulties In Iowa

Hillary gets surprisingly specific about her difficulties in Iowa in an interview with influential Iowa columnist David Yepsen, saying that she has "no preexisting relationships" with the state. She notes that Edwards and Obama have devoted a great deal of time to Iowa, and also offers this debatable assessment of Obama and Edwards' candidacies: "They haven't broken through on the national level."

And as Ben Smith notes, Hillary also offers what sounds like some criticism of the state of Mississippi. The whole Yepsen interview's worth a read.

Kucinich Had A UFO Encounter, According To Friend Shirley MacLaine

In Shirley MacLaine's new book, the actress and longtime friend of Dennis Kucinich makes an interesting claim: During a visit to her home in Washington state, Kucinich said he saw a UFO and heard messages from it.

"Dennis found his encounter extremely moving," MacLaine writes. "The smell of roses drew him out to my balcony where, when he looked up, he saw a gigantic triangular craft, silent, and observing him.

"It hovered, soundless, for 10 minutes or so, and sped away with a speed he couldn't comprehend. He said he felt a connection in his heart and heard directions in his mind."

Kucinich's campaign and Congressional offices did not return calls or e-mails from the Cleveland Plain Dealer.

In New Iowa Mailer, Obama Faults Hillary's Iran Vote

A new Obama mailer in Iowa goes after unnamed "other Democrats" who supported the Kyl-Lieberman Amendment, also bringing up the familiar theme that Obama is only major Democratic candidate who opposed the Iraq War from day one — an obvious veiled reference to Hillary Clinton, who voted for both the Iraq War authorization and the Kyl-Lieberman Amendment.

The mailing is a clear rebuttal to a letter that Clinton has sent out to Iowans, defending her vote as a move in favor of stepped-up diplomacy rather than military action.

"While others went along, Obama opposed Bush's war plans."

"Why is this amendment so dangerous?" the mailer quotes Obama saying. "Because George Bush and Dick Cheney could use this language to justify keeping our troops in Iraq as long as they can point to a threat from Iran. And because they could use this language to justify an attack on Iran as a part of the ongoing war in Iraq."

Report: GOPer Tom Davis Won't Run For Senate

The Washington Post reports that Congressman Tom Davis (R-VA) will not be running for the open Senate seat in 2008, and could potentially announce his intentions as soon as this week. Davis' chances had been hurt by the state party's decision to make their nomination through a convention, rather than a primary, a decision that would heavily favor the more conservative former Governor Jim Gilmore.

The remaining question is whether Davis will seek re-election to his seat representing Fairfax County, which has become a swing or even Democratic-leaning area. Davis' announcement could be delayed until after the state legislative elections in two weeks, in which his Davis' wife is facing a tough race for re-election as a state Senator.

The Democrats are heavily favored to pick up the Senate seat, with former Governor Mark Warner as their candidate.

Thompson Discusses Daughter's Death, Criticizes Government On Schiavo

Fred Thompson has previously criticized the government's involvement in the Terri Schiavo case, and he has now elaborated on the subject: He's had his own tragic experience, with the death of his 38-year old daughter in 2002.

"I had to make those decisions with the rest of my family," said Thompson. "And I will assure you one thing: No matter which decision you make, you will never know whether or not you made exactly the right decision."

Talking to a reporter in Florida, Thompson was harshly critical of the political decisions made in the case, saying that there should not be a role for any level of government beyond the judiciary's authority to adjudicate disputes.

Thompson added that "making this into a political football is something that I don't welcome, and this will probably be the last time I ever address it. It should be decided by the family. The federal government — and the state government too, except for the court system — should stay out of these matters, as far as I'm concerned."

Obama Strongly Denounces Antigay Gospel Singer

Barack Obama issues a strongly worded statement denouncing gospel singer Donnie McClurkin, whose planned appearance at an Obama gospel campaign event is getting denounced over his stridently antigay views:

"I have clearly stated my belief that gays and lesbians are our brothers and sisters and should be provided the respect, dignity, and rights of all other citizens. I have consistently spoken directly to African-American religious leaders about the need to overcome the homophobia that persists in some parts our community so that we can confront issues like HIV/AIDS and broaden the reach of equal rights in this country.

I strongly believe that African Americans and the LGBT community must stand together in the fight for equal rights. And so I strongly disagree with Reverend McClurkin's views and will continue to fight for these rights as President of the United States to ensure that America is a country that spreads tolerance instead of division."

But the question remains, Will he still be doing the event?

Obama Campaign Has Yet To Distance Itself From Antigay Singer At Obama Event

The Obama campaign is coming under fire for staging a campaign gospel tour that includes gospel singer Donnie McClurkin, an antigay crusader who has railed against "the curse of homosexuality."

Though McClurkin's involvement with the Obama campaign has been sharply criticized in recent days, the campaign has yet to disavow his remarks or distance itself from him, and didn't give us a comment in response to our queries today.

The campaign recently announced that its gospel tour would make three stops in South Carolina, where Obama is in a tough race with Hillary Clinton. The tour includes singers like Mary Mary, Hezekiah Walker, Byron Cage and McClurkin.

But as John Aravosis of AmericaBlog first pointed out, McClurkin is a controversial figure in the gay community. He's criticized the "curse of homosexuality" and has detailed his own struggle with homosexual tendencies by saying that he had been "delivered" from them and that "God can deliver others, too."

McClurkin's appearance on behalf of the Obama campaign is now drawing fire from at least one gay rights group, and it was criticized sharply by writer Earl Ofari Hutchinson, who observed that "healing and consensus building does not mean sucking up to someone that publicly boasts that he's in 'a war' against gays, and that the aim of his war is to 'cure' them." It's also become something of an issue in the liberal blogosphere and more specifically on the gay blogs, too. The critics point out that Obama demanded the firing of a Justice Department official for racially-charged comments, and want him to condemn McClurkin, too.

We contacted the Obama campaign for comment on this early this afternoon, asking whether it would disavow his remarks. As of this evening, the Obama campaign had yet to comment. We'll bring you their statement if they do say something.

Obama isn't the only candidate to deal with this. Rev. Dr. Harold Mayberry, whose support Hillary has sought, has preached against homosexuality to his San Francisco congregation.

Late Update: Obama has just issued a hard-hitting statement denouncing McClurkin's views.

Quote Of The Day

"It'’s amazing to me that the President expects to be taken seriously when he says we cannot afford $20 billion in investments in education, health, law enforcement and science, which will make this country stronger over the long term, but he doesn’'t blink an eye at asking to borrow $200 billion for a policy in Iraq that leaves us six months from now exactly where we were six months ago."

-- Dem Rep. David Obey, responding in a statement to the news today that President Bush's request for war spending will total nearly $200 billion.

Dem Challenger Against Elizabeth Dole Is Openly Gay

Senator Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) has had lackluster approval ratings back home, but she may well end up having a big issue to run on in this Southern state — it turns out that her only declared opponent, businessman and longtime Democratic fundraiser Jim Neal, is openly gay.

Neal was asked about it during an online chat at BlueNC over the weekend, replying that he is indeed gay, and his campaign later confirmed it to the Associated Press.

"I'm not running this race to lose. I'm not running to make some social statement," Neal wrote. "I'm running to lead in the Senate for the voters in NC — something Senator Dole has not done.

"When people meet me, they'll see beyond the labels and into my character."

RNC Panel Moves To Punish Five Early Voting States

A Republican National Committee panel has voted to strip five early-voting states in the presidential race of half their delegates, as punishment for violating the party's rules of no primary contests before February 5th. New Hampshire, Florida, South Carolina, Michigan and Wyoming could be punished in the decision, which must go to a full party committee vote before taking effect.

Unlike the DNC's decision to strip Florida of all its delegates for violating the party's calendar, the RNC will not bar any candidate from campaigning in any of the offending states. Despite the states' reduced delegate counts, it does not appear that the five contests would become less coveted prizes by the GOP presidential hopefuls — victories will still be seen as popular wins with Republican voters in that crucial early voting period, which would generate the momentum that candidates are really after.

Report: White House To Request Nearly $200 Billion For Iraq And Afghanistan

The White House has reportedly tacked on an additional $46 billion to its upcoming funding request for Iraq and Afghanistan, bringing the total to a breathtaking $196.4 billion for a single budgetary year — and assuming this passes as is, there could even be more supplemental spending bills down the road.

Since 2003, over $455 billion has already been provided for Iraq, with this new funding request set to bring it well over the half-trillion mark.

Yepsen: McCain Did Best At Debate, But No One Was Watching

Influential Iowa columnist David Yepsen says that John McCain had the best night at yesterday's debate, but he also offered a sobering caveat for the Arizona Senator: It doesn't matter, because neither Rudy nor Romney slipped up, and besides, no one was watching, anyway.

"There was no big news or major mistakes that might change the dyamic of the GOP campaign," Yepsen wrote. "Given that it was held at the exact same time as the big baseball playoff game between the Boston Red Sox and the Cleveland Indians, that’s probably just as well."

"It was especially unlikely to have much impact in New Hampshire, which is big Red Sox territory and where most televisions probably weren’t tuned to politics Sunday night," Yepsen concluded. It does seem like a fair bet -- the onetime establishment candidate just can't catch a break, can he.

Delegate Rules Mean A Tough Road For Colbert

Can Stephen Colbert win a delegate to either national convention? The Atlantic's Josh Green explores that very question, and comes up with some interesting answers:

Delegate-apportionment rules matter. On the Republican side, Colbert would have to carry a Congressional district — a tough order, to say the least. On the other hand, he would only need to break 15% in a single Congressional district, such as the Second District with its large population of students, in order to win a Democratic delegate.

Colbert is not the only candidate running for protest votes — he could face some competition from Ron Paul.

Other vanity candidacies by celebrities have fared poorly, such as Gary Coleman's run for governor of California or the many satirical campaigns by Pat Paulsen for president. In Paulsen's campaigns, he never won any delegates.

Poll: New Mexico Still A Swing State

A new SurveyUSA poll of New Mexico has Hillary Clinton narrowly ahead in some potentially close match-ups in New Mexico, which voted narrowly for Al Gore in 2000 but then supported George W. Bush in 2004:

Giuliani (R) 48%, Clinton (D) 47%
Clinton (D) 51%, Thompson (R) 43%
Clinton (D) 49%, Romney (R) 42%
Clinton (D) 49%, Huckabee (R) 38%
McCain (R) 50%, Clinton (D) 43%
Clinton (D) 51%, Paul (R) 34%
Gore (D) 49%, Giuliani (R) 45%

The Gore vs. Giuliani number would seem to indicate that Democrats have an edge here in general, but it remains a small one.

Rudy's Man Has Tough Job: Protect Him From Kerik Probe

Rudy Giuliani's law partner has been assigned an interesting task: Protect Rudy from the ticking time bomb known as Bernie Kerik. The partner, Marc Mukasey, has taken on the job of keeping a close eye on the criminal investigation into Kerik, which threatens to erupt at any time and damage Rudy's Presidential campaign.

To that end, Mukasey, the son of AG nominee Michael Mukasey, has even blocked witnesses who might be helpful to Kerik -- but who are loyal to Rudy -- from offering their testimony on behalf of Rudy's embattled former commish. Sources tell the New York Post that Mukasey's effort "shows Giuliani's concern with how the legal fate of his former NYPD and correction commissioner could affect his presidential campaign."

Sen. Lautenberg Draws A Challenger

Republican businesswoman Anne Evans Estabrook announced today that she will challenge long-time New Jersey Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D), ending a four-month exploratory phase of her campaign.

Lautenberg's advanced age (he will be 84 years old on Election Day) and weak performances in recent polls have the GOP hoping for an outside shot at an upset, but Republican hopes have been stymied in the Garden State during the past several statewide elections.

Chuck Norris Isn't Endorsing Huckabee — He's Appointing Him

In a new column over at WorldNetDaily, Chuck Norris has announced that he is supporting Mike Huckabee for president.

"Friends, it's time for people to get off the bench and onto the playing field," Norris writes. "If we are going to see a man like Mike Huckabee elected, it's time to rally behind him, support him financially, pray for him daily and spread the word of his character, platform and experience.

"So can a man who was raised in a poor background from Hope, Ark., become governor then president? As Mike says, 'Our country has already proven that!' What I would ask is: Give Hope another chance! This time, they want to send in the real cavalry."

(Via The Palmetto Scoop.)

New Richardson Ad Features Former Iraq Hostages

Bill Richardson has a new ad out, entitled "Only One," discussing how he negotiated the release of hostages in Iraq in the mid-1990's, when he was still only a Congressman.

"He's the only one that was willing to, to leave his family, his wife behind, travel to a dangerous section of the world, for two men he didn’t even know," says Kathy Daliberti, wife of former hostage Dave Daliberti.

Bush Ties Record Low Of 25% In New Poll

Yet another poll finds that only a quarter of the electorate approves of the job Bush is doing as President. The new American Research Group survey finds Bush's approval rating at 25% -- matching his low point in ARG polling.

Bush's numbers are also sagging (relatively, at least) among Republicans. His approval among GOPers has dropped to 67%, down from 80% last month.

Election Central Debate Roundup

A full transcript of last night's Republican debate is available here.

Chris Wallace got things off to a good start, by instigating some verbal fights over Fred Thompson's attacks on Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani, regarding issues like abortion, gun control and immigration. After Rudy and Romney responded, Wallace asked Thompson if he was satisfied that they were true conservatives. "Well, we've got an hour and a half," he said sarcastically. "Maybe they can work on it."

Rudy turned the accusations right back in Thompson's face. "I mean, Fred was the single biggest obstacle to tort reform in the United States Senate," said Giuliani. "He stood with Democrats over and over again."

Thompson said pro-choice groups have an ulterior motive in brining up his brief time lobbying for them in the early 1990's. "Frankly, I'd forgotten about it. But they've come forward now, because I'm their worst nightmare," he said. "After that happened, I went to the United States Senate and voted consistently against them on every bill that came up. Now they're trying to defeat me."

John McCain got a standing ovation for his remark about why he missed Woodstock: "I was tied up at the time." Even the other candidates joined in on the applause.

Ron Paul was booed more than once. One time involved him saying that more than 70% of Americans are "sick and tired of it [Iraq] and they want our troops to come home." Another instance was when he said that we need to start talking to other countries and trade with them, rather than "assume that the world is going to blow up."

Read more »

Obama's New Ad: "Change We Can Believe In"

Barack Obama is up with a new ad in New Hampshire -- his third in the state -- that continues making the case against Hillary as bound up in conventional thinking about foreign policy and makes the case for himself as the race's only true change agent.

"When we break out of the conventional thinking and we start reaching out to friend and foe alike, then I am absolutely convinced that we can restore America's leadership in the world," Obama says to a roomful of nodding voters. Hillary is also in favor of negotiating with leaders of hostile nations, though the two differ on the question of whether a President should commit to personally meeting with them without preconditions.

The ad also debuts a new slogan: "Change we can believe in," which is clearly meant to make the case that the promises of change coming from the frontrunner can't be trusted.

Perkins: Rudy Told Me He Would Back A Marriage Amendment

In his quest to win over (or at least tame) the social conservatives, Rudy Giuliani might be going so far as to accommodate on the Federal Marriage Amendment.

Tony Perkins, head of the Family Research Council, said to The Hill that Giuliani told him that if more states start legalizing gay marriage, he would then back a constitutional amendment to ban it.

Perkins said the assurance from Giuliani "was nice to hear." Curiously, Rudy did not mention this during his speech before the crowd, who would have received it very nicely.

Jindal Wins In Louisiana

Rep. Bobby Jindal (R-LA) was elected governor yesterday, taking about 54% of the vote and avoiding a runoff. Jindal previously ran for governor in 2003, but lost to Democrat Kathleen Blanco by a 52%-48% margin. Blanco was not running again this time.

Jindal is the first Indian-American elected governor of a U.S. state, and at age 36 will become the youngest current governor when he is sworn in.



« October 14, 2007 - October 20, 2007 | Election Central Home | October 28, 2007 - November 3, 2007 »

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