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October 21, 2007 - October 27, 2007

Edwards Visits All 99 Iowa Counties

John Edwards has demonstrated just how committed he is to winning Iowa with an important milestone. His visit today in Franklin County marked the fulfillment of his promise to tour all 99 counties in the state.

Bear in mind that some corners of western Iowa are overwhelmingly Republican, but Edwards has made sure to visit those, too — after all, although most people there are Republicans, some are Democrats, and they can go to the caucus, too.



Family Research Council Faults Brownback For Pro-Rudy Comments

Today we've been chronicling the fallout from the surprising remarks made yesterday by conservative Senator Sam Brownback, who startled a lot of people in GOP primary politics by saying that he'd grown "more comfortable" with Rudy's abortion views after meeting with him face to face.

The latest: A top official with the Family Research Council, a top social conservative group, expressed surprise and dismay at Brownback's dalliance with Rudy in an interview with Election Central.

"The wording is curious," said Charmaine Yoest, a vice president at FRC. "It goes beyond what I would have expected of him."

The larger question right now is whether social conservatives will really desert Rudy should he become the GOP nominee. More and more evidence suggests that conservative leaders who are threatening to bolt are just blowing smoke. For instance, James Bopp, a leading conservative supporter of Mitt Romney, acknowledged earlier today that he too would support Rudy in a general election and predicted that a third-party challenge from the right was unlikely to happen.

The Family Research Council, though, is continuing to insist that social conservatives will in fact desert Rudy in droves -- and doesn't believe Brownback will ultimately support Rudy. "I'll believe he supports Giuliani when I see it," FRC veep Yoest says. "For the pro-life movement as a whole, life is a deal-breaker. There would be no better way to demoralize the GOP base than to nominate Giuliani. It would be a disaster for the Republicans party."

We'll see.


Dem Primary Challenger Pera Goes After Lipinski In New Ad

Illinois Congressional candidate Mark Pera, who is running a primary challenge from the left against Congressman Dan Lipiniski (D), has a new ad set to air next week against the incumbent:

The Chicago Tribune finds some fault with the ad, noting that Lipinski voted for the funding bill that included a timetable for deployment, which President Bush vetoed. The Pera camp says that the bill did not go far enough and left Bush too much discretion in carrying out a timetable, and therefore they can still claim that Lipinski has opposed any timetable to end the American presence in Iraq.

Fox News Demands McCain Stop Using Fox Footage — But Lets Rudy Use It

There an interesting wrinkle in the legal wrangling between John McCain and Fox News. Fox is not only telling the McCain camp to stop using footage from Sunday's debate in an ad — they're telling McCain to remove all Fox content from his Web site.

The funny thing about this, as we explain over at the Horse's Mouth, is that they don't seem to have any problems with other campaigns using Fox debate footage and other content on their sites. In fact, the site for Rudy Giuliani — a longtime friend of Fox head Roger Ailes — is positively festooned with Fox video.

The full story is right here at The Horse's Mouth.

Romney's Son Promotes Him In New Spanish Radio Ad

Mitt Romney has a new Spanish-language radio ad running in Florida, featuring his son Craig.

The younger Romney describes his father as a "conservative who understands and respects Hispanics and particularly Cuban exiles and others who have come to our country in search of liberty and opportunity."

Check out the ad after the jump, along with English and Spanish scripts.

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Biden Slams Both Hillary And Obama On Kyl-Lieberman

Joe Biden has a new press release out regarding the current arguments about the Kyl-Lieberman Amendment — and he goes after both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, on the grounds that Hillary voted for it and Obama didn't actually show up.

"Unlike Sen. Clinton, I don’t trust this administration to follow the plain meaning of the law," Biden says. "And unlike Sen. Obama, I believe this was a vitally important vote – not one to miss and then complain about later."

Check out the full statement after the jump.

(Via Ben Smith.)

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Paul To Launch Big Ad Buy And Tour In New Hampshire

Ron Paul will be taking advantage of his recent fundraising success by launching a renewed push in New Hampshire.

Beginning Monday, the Paul campaign will begin running a new ad campaign in the state, costing about $1.1 million Additionally, he has four trips to the state planned for November, plus an 11-day tour scheduled for December.

Paul's libertarianism is in many ways a good fit for the state. Combined with his anti-war position, the campaign hopes to further boost his chances by getting registered Democrats to re-register as independents so they could vote for him in the Republican primary.

Craig To Argue Foot-Tapping A Constitutional Right

Larry Craig is now taking yet another path in his quest to legally absolve himself: He is legally arguing that the law under which he was arrested and subsequently pled guilty to disorderly conduct in a men's room is in fact unconstitutional.

This puts Craig with an odd ally for a conservative Republican: The ACLU, who argued in an amicus brief that foot-tapping and hand gestures alone, absent a real sexual act, were protected by the First Amendment.

Craig's lawyers will file their briefs by mid-December, and have asked to make oral arguments before the appeals court in St. Paul.

McCain Camp Ducks Question Of Whether He'll Vote For Musakey

Earlier today, we asked if John McCain plans to vote for Michael Mukasey for attorney general in light of Mukasey's hedging about whether waterboarding constitutes torture. After all, McCain strongly condemns waterboarding, says that it unequivocally is torture, and he publicly rebuked Rudy Giuliani on this very subject.

Well, the Huffington Post asked the question directly, and they didn't get a straight answer. "The Judiciary Committee process is ongoing and Sen. McCain believes that Judge Mukasey deserves an up-or-down vote based on his qualifications for the office of Attorney General," a McCain aide told the HuffPo in an e-mail.

Poll: Chambliss Ahead But Potentially Vulnerable Against Cleland

A new poll from Republican firm InsisderAdvantage finds that Senator Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) could possibly be vulnerable against former Senator Max Cleland (D-GA), whom he defeated in a bitter campaign in 2002. Chambliss leads Cleland 36%-24% in the poll, with a very high 40% undecided rate.

"My guess is that a well-funded Cleland campaign would still be an underdog, but would have more than a legitimate chance of potentially pulling off an upset," wrote InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery, "given the fact that among independent voters, Chambliss led by only 7 points with some 38 percent stating that they were undecided."

Cleland has not given any indication that he's looking at the race.

Top Conservative Romney Supporter: I'd Support Rudy In General Election

A lot of people are holding out hope that if Rudy wins the GOP nomination social conservatives will organize a third party challenge from the right that will split the Republican Party. Prominent social conservative leaders have been suggesting as much lately in various forums.

Well, this isn't going to give people holding out for this very much hope.

As I noted below, a top conservative backer of Mitt Romney, the prominent conservative attorney James Bopp, told me in an interview that he was outraged that conservative Senator Sam Brownback is dallying with pro-choice Rudy.

But that isn't all Bopp said. He also told me that he thinks that if Rudy wins the nomination, a third-party challenge just isn't a serious possiblitiy -- and even said he himself would back Rudy.

"I think there are people who would consider voting for a minor party candidate rather than Giuliani if he got the nomination," Bopp told me. "Frankly I'm not one of those. I don't think the idea of a third party is being seriously considered by anyone."

Asked how he could bring himself to vote for the pro-choice Rudy in a general election, Bopp said that a Hillary victory is unthinkable.

"I'm not prepared to surrender in the war on terror and have terror attacks on major cities in the U.S.," Bopp said. "Surrendering in the war on terror means the destruction of American civilation. Between the two of them I'm going to support the nominee of the Republican party." He added, however, that he was still working hard for Romney "to prevent us from having that difficult choice."

This is not exactly on message with the Romney campaign, obviously. The Romney camp needs to encourage the idea that a third party challenge is likely in order to make Rudy seem unelectable. To hear a top Romney supporter saying that such a challenge is unlikely and that he could even vote for Rudy in a general election has got to be unwelcome to Romney.

Top Brownback Supporter: He Might Support Rudy In Order to Defeat Hillary

As noted below, conservative Senator Sam Brownback startled a lot of people in GOP Primary politics by saying that he he's grown "more comfortable" with Rudy's abortion views after meeting with him. A Brownback endorsement of Rudy would be big, because it would mean he's succeeding in winning over parts of the party -- adamantly pro-life factions -- who should be hostile to him.

How is this possible? The Catholic News Agency sheds a bit of light on the situation:

According to Jay Heine, Brownback's political director in Iowa, an endorsement could happen because Brownback and many of his supporters believe Giuliani has the best chance of defeating Senator Hillary Clinton, the expected Democratic nominee.

So, here a top political supporter of Brownback is saying that Brownback and "many of his supporters" think Rudy has the best chance of defeating Hillary, and hence may be able to overlook his pro-choice views. If true, that suggests that Rudy's argument may be working among at least some social conservatives.

The article also notes that Brownback's dalliance with Rudy has left some members of Catholics for Brownback "outraged." That's as you'd expect. What's surprising is that the outrage isn't preventing Brownback from very seriously suggesting he'd back a pro-choicer. The whole thing really is eye-opening.

McCain Camp Rolls Out New Ad Against Hillary And Woodstock

John McCain has a retooled version of his anti-Hillary, anti-hippies ad. The new ad was made as a result of Fox News demands that the campaign stop using footage of McCain from one of their debates.

"It was a cultural event that defined a generation. Worthy of fond memories," the narrator says mockingly over B-roll of some dirty hippies. "But worthy of a million of your tax dollars to build a museum? Hillary Clinton thinks so. John McCain disagrees."

Bopp, Top Social Conservative Supporter Of Romney, Lashes Out At Brownback For Pro-Rudy Comments

One of the big stories of the day in GOP primary politics is conservative Senator Sam Brownback's new and eyebrow-raising assertion yesterday that he is suddenly "much more comfortable" than before about Rudy's abortion views. Brownback said this after meeting with Rudy yesterday.

Now there's been another key development in the story.

Jim Bopp, one of Mitt Romney's top social conservative supporters, just lashed out repeatedly at Brownback in an interview with me for his kind words about Rudy's abortion views, accusing Brownback in scathing terms of putting "personal benefit" before the pro-life cause.

"There's obviously something more going on here than fidelity to the pro-life cause," said Bopp, a legendary pro-life activist and lawyer who is an important voice for Romney because he vouches for his conservatism. "Brownback is angling for some personal political benefit by cozying up to Giuliani."

Bopp's stinging criticism of Brownback is somewhat surprising, because the support of Brownback, who recently dropped out of the Presidential race, is coveted by GOP candidates such as Romney because it would shore up their conservative credentials. Romney and Rudy are engaged in a heated war over the evangelical and social conservative vote.

Brownback's dalliance with Rudy, Bopp said, is "particularly surprising in light of his unwillingness to accept Romney's conversion, which happened several years ago. Now he is willing to accept Giuliani's statements of the last day or so."

"Giuliani is unequivocal -- he wants abortion to be legal," Bopp continued. "Brownback claimed that the raison d'etre of his campaign was protecting human life. "So the only way that you can look at what he is saying now and what he is doing now is that he is prepared to compromise the pro-life movement and cause to advance his own personal political agenda."

The suggestion here is that Brownback is cozying up to Rudy because he thinks the Mayor is on his way to winning the GOP nomination -- and that he's willing to throw the pro-life movement under the bus to be with the winner.

More soon.

Poll: Romney Leads In New Hampshire — Thompson At The Back Of The Pack

A new Rasmussen poll has Mitt Romney still ahead in the New Hampshire primary:

Romney 28%
Giuliani 19%
McCain 16%
Huckabee 10%
Thompson 6%

Notice how Fred Thompson appears to have really fallen flat in the key primary state.

Hillary Celebrates Birthday With $1.5 Million Fundraiser

Today is Hillary Clinton's 60th birthday, and she celebrated last night with a fundraiser that took in an estimated $1.5 million.

The event was held in New York City at the Beacon Theater, featuring Billy Crystal, Elvis Costello, and the Wallflowers as the headline entertainment. Tickets ranged from a $100 campaign donation, up to $2,300.

McCain Sharply Rebukes Rudy For Pro-Torture Comments

Senator John McCain, who is perhaps the most forceful (and one of the only) anti-torture voices in his party, has sharply rebuked Rudy in an interview for suggesting yesterday that he didn't know what waterboarding is and that extreme interrogation techniques might be defensible in some circumstances.

McCain offered his comments about Rudy and waterboarding in an interview with The New York Times:

“All I can say is that it was used in the Spanish Inquisition, it was used in Pol Pot’s genocide in Cambodia, and there are reports that it is being used against Buddhist monks today,” Mr. McCain, who spent more than five years in a North Vietnamese prison camp, said in a telephone interview.

Of presidential candidates like Mr. Giuliani, who say that they are unsure whether waterboarding is torture, Mr. McCain said: “They should know what it is. It is not a complicated procedure. It is torture.”

On Wednesday, Rudy said that he was in favor of "aggressive questioning" of terror suspects, adding that the question of whether waterboarding was defensible "depends on who does it. Rudy also blamed the liberal media for his failure to articulate a clear position, claiming that the media doesn't offer an honest definition of what waterboarding is.

Relatedly, here's an intriguing question: Does Romney know what waterboarding is? Does he think it's defensible in certain circumstances? What about the rest of the GOP candidates?

Late Update: Think Progress asks a good question: Given his opposition to torture, will McCain vote to confirm Mukasey?

Dem Congressman McNulty Retiring

Congressman Michael McNulty (D-NY) will reportedly announce his retirement from the House at the end of this term. McNulty was first elected from his solidly Democratic district in 1988, and it is not expected to be a swing seat next year.

On possibility for the retirement, according to the Associated Press, is that McNulty survived childhood polio and has been suffering from apparent mobility problems in recent years.

McNulty becomes the first Congressional Democrat this cycle to retire, compared to the much higher number of Republicans who are stepping down. The other two open Democratic House seats are those of Mark Udall (CO) and Tom Allen (ME), who are running for the Senate. Those seats are also expected to remain safely in the Dem column.

Brownback "Much More Comfortable" With Rudy

Sam Brownback emerged from his meeting with Rudy Giuliani yesterday with an apparent sense of optimism about the pro-choice Republican.

"I'm much more comfortable," said Brownback. "Justices are key. He's stated publicly many times about his support for strict constructionists like, I believe he said Roberts. John Roberts is a personal friend."



Poll: Congress' Approval Low, But People Likely To Re-Elect Incumbents

The latest Fox News poll illustrates the problem of reading too much into Congress' political fortunes on the basis of the institution's overall approval.

On the one hand, the approval rating stands at 25%, with 54% disapproval. But on the other hand, the poll asked this question: "How about your representative — do you think he or she deserves to be reelected? The result was 50% in favor of reelecting the incumbents, versus only 29% who want somebody news.

In short, it'll take a lot more than even the current disapproval to actually cause major shifts in the House. The current approval/disapproval ratings appear more to be a product of general frustration with the status quo than any desire to change who gets sent there.

Obama And Hillary Release Dueling "Memos" On Iran

One thing that Campaign 2008 has brought is the new "dueling memo" phenomenon, wherein the campaigns release "memos" attacking each other. We think someone else said this already, but pretty soon we're just going to have to call these "memos" for what they are, which is press releases.

Anyway, today brought another dueling memo match between Hillary and Obama, this time on Iran. Obama's memo went out first, arguing that there are real and substantive differences between the two of them on Iran. Hillary's memo followed a few moments ago, arguing that Obama is contradicting himself on Iran.

This latest "memo match" is in sync with the larger battle between the two candidates, in which the Obama camp argues that there are real differences between the candidates, while the Hillary camp claims that Obama's efforts to do this are largely (but not exclusively) self-contradictory attack politics.

Both "memos" are after the jump.

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Analysis: Hillary Surging Among Well-Educated Women

Political analyst Ronald Brownstein explains Hillary's consolidating lead over Obama by pointing to her recent surge among well-educated Democratic women:

Recent polls show Clinton dramatically gaining ground with better-educated Democratic women, both nationally and in the key early state of New Hampshire. More than any other factor, those gains explain why she has nearly doubled her lead over Barack Obama, her closest competitor, in national Gallup polls since summer....

Clinton remains very popular among downscale Democratic women, the Gallup results show, and her newfound strength among college-educated Democratic women is allowing her to cut into the core of Obama's coalition: well-educated Democrats.

Brownstein has been interpreting this race for some time now in light of the "wine track" versus "beer track" divide that's traditionally endured in Dem primary politics, saying that Hillary was doing well among blue collar Dems while Obama was winning over well-educated, more affluent ones. But, Brownstein concludes, Hillary's success among "wine track" women is scrambling this calculus -- and, he claims, is making it tougher and tougher for her rivals to catch her. His full analysis here.

Fox News Orders McCain Camp To Pull Ad

John McCain's new anti-Hillary, anti-hippies ad is now the target of a cease-and-desist letter. The ad used video of McCain receiving a standing ovation at last week's Republican debate on Fox News — and Fox has said they did not give any permission for a campaign to use their debate footage in ads.

The ad is still running, as the McCain campaign maintains that their inclusion of 19 seconds out of a 90-minute debate constitutes fair use. But the lawyers at Fox News say the McCain campaign is without a defense in their commercial use of Fox's video and logo. So this could take a while to sort itself out.

Obama Campaign Letter Defends Choice Of Anti-Gay Pastor, Calls For Dialogue

Barack Obama's campaign has released an open letter from a group of LGBT leaders, plus religious leaders, explaining the pro-gay rights candidate's decision to hold a campaign event with anti-gay pastor Donnie McClurkin, the Huffington Post reports.

The crux of the argument is that Obama is willing and able to reach out to different groups — even those with diametrically opposite views on certain issues — and bring them together for other issues and towards a greater dialogue.

Full letter after the jump.

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Rudy's Man Podhoretz Details His Plans For Attacking Iran

Yesterday we noted that top Rudy foreign policy adviser and neocon death star overloard Norman Podhoretz was spending his spare time briefing Giuliani on the necessity for the commencement of World War IV.

Well, now Podhoretz has done himself one better, revealing in that same interview with The New York Observer that he's got plans for exactly how war with Iran should be carried out:

"The forces are in place and all you have to say is 'go.' said Podhoretz, a father of neoconservatism and a senior advisor to Rudy Giuliani. "You could wake up tomorrow morning" and it could be done.

After acknowledging that he was not a military man, Podhoretz offered that the attack should be carried out by air, with no commitment of ground troops, and the sooner the better...

He said that bombers could be dispatched from two nearby aircraft carriers or missiles could be launched from submarines to take out the roughly 18 known above-ground nuclear facilities.

"We could get all the above grounds ones," he said, adding his opinion that "there is no technical problem about getting them out."

As for the small issue of Iran's military response, Podhoretz observed that it could be mitigated with a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is between the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf.

And thus concludes today's preview of World War IV.

Thompson: America Must Not Lose Against "A Bunch Of Kids" With IED's

During a campaign stop yesterday in South Carolina, Fred Thompson gave a new reason why Americans have to stay committed in Iraq: "We will not be a safer country, we will not be a safer America if the whole world watches us being defeated by a bunch of kids with improvised explosive devices."

The statement is somewhat reminiscent of Lyndon Johnson, who privately demanded some sort of a solution to a war in a "damn little pissant country" — Vietnam.

Hillary Camp's Strategic Dilemma: How To Tout National Polls?

For obvious reasons, Hillary campaign officials frequently tout her growing lead in national polls to argue that she's romping to victory in the primary and is even poised for a great win in the general election. Hillary pollster Mark Penn, for instance, has made that case in a steady stream of campaign memos that are routinely tossed to reporters and pundits like fish to barking seals.

But inside the Hillary camp, advisers say, there's a clear awareness that this strategy of projecting brash confidence via references to national numbers carries real risks. Calling too much attention to national pols could backfire in the all-important early states, by giving rivals an opening to inflate expectations to the point where a modest win or loss will be seen as a letdown. Also worrisome: Suggestions of her inevitability could potentially turn off Iowa voters who traditionally don't like to be told who is running away with the nomination.

"It comes up constantly in conference calls," one Hillary adviser tells Election Central. "You have a constant warning by the campaign to be very worried about expectations. They tout the national polls to boost fundraising and to make the case that she's electable in a general election. But how deep will her support be when the media comes down on her for not meeting expectations in the early states? It's a recurring theme."

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Romney: The Clintons Set Bad Example On Family Values

Mitt Romney has now gone after the Clintons not just on policy, but on their marriage. At a house party in New Hampshire, Romney was asked how he might promote family values if he were elected.

"One of the ways that you help instill, if you will, family values is by having a White House be a place that demonstrates family values," said Romney. "And, you know, I think during the last Clinton presidency, the White House did not demonstrate that in a way that was helpful to our nation's character."

Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson was blunt in his response: "Hillary Clinton needs no lessons on character from a man who switches his positions on a daily basis."

Edwards Uses Bush's Iran Sanctions To Go After Hillary

John Edwards and Barack Obama are right out the gate with statements critical of the sanctions against Iran the State Department announced today — with Edwards using the announcement to go after Hillary, and her vote for the Kyl-Lieberman Amendment.

"Senator Clinton's actions undermine the American people's opposition to war with Iran," Edwards said in his statement. "Today's advancement of the Bush strategy on Iran shows how much we need strong opposition on this issue. I learned my lesson the hard way in 2002, but it appears that others still have some learning to do."

The rest of Edwards' statement and Obama's reaction after the jump.

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Poll: Rudy Ahead In California — But With A Very Small Plurality

A new Field Poll in California shows Rudy Giuliani continuing to lead the Republican pack — but his percentage of the vote has gone down considerably since the last poll.

Rudy leads with 25% support, with the opposition in a three-way tie: Romney 13%, McCain 12%, Thompson 12%. Clearly, Rudy is continuing to benefit from a divided opposition.

In the last Field Poll back in August, Rudy had 35%. Rudy has fallen ten points, while some of the smaller candidates like Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee have gained a few points each.

Iowa Dems Picking January 3

Iowa Democrats are picking January 3, a Thursday, as the date for their caucus, the same day that has already been selected by Iowa Republicans.

The state party's central committee will hold a conference call Sunday night to formally ratify the decision.

This makes it somewhat more likely that the New Hampshire primary will be held the following Tuesday, January 8.

Steny Hoyer Says Some Strong Words Against Telecom Immunity

Some liberals think House Dem leader Steny Hoyer is weak on the telecom immunity issue, but it needs to be said that he has now delivered a speech in which he said some very forceful stuff in opposition to keeping telecom immunity in the revised FISA bill:

"Finally, this legislation is silent on the issue of retroactive immunity for telecommunications companies that possibly violated privacy laws in turning over consumer information – because Congress does not have full access to information about what the companies did.

"Simply stated, it would be grossly irresponsible for Congress to grant blanket immunity for companies without even knowing whether their conduct was legal or not. And, importantly, this view is shared by the Chairman and Ranking Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee.

"Until we understand what legal authorities were used to justify the terrorist surveillance program, there does not appear to be any practicable way to include retroactive immunity in this bill."

Though he appears to be suggesting that his opposition to immunity might be tempered if he gets access to the White House documents that the Senate intel community reviewed before producing a bill containing immunity, this is nonetheless some pretty toughly-worded opposition. The question, as Atrios says, is whether he'll back these words up with legislative action.

Rudy Won't Say Whether Waterboarding Is Torture, Blames Liberal Media

In a town hall meeting in Iowa last night, Rudy Giuliani offered an extended explanation of his views on torture — and refused to say whether he thinks waterboarding constitutes an inappropriate technique.

Rudy also made it clear that he favors "aggressive questioning" of terror suspects, and blamed the liberal media for his refusal to clarify his views of waterboarding, saying the media inaccurately describes what waterboarding is by making it seem unacceptable in all cases.

Check out Rudy's torture comments after the jump — they're pretty eye-opening.

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Mitt Lampoons Rudy's Yankees-Red Sox Flip Flop

On the campaign trail in New Hampshire today, Mitt Romney had a little fun with longtime Yankee fan Rudy Giuliani's recent claim that he's suddenly rooting for the Red Sox to win the series. "Anyone here a Red Sox fan?" Romney asked the crowd, to laughter. "You're one or the other, but probably not both, right?"

The amusing thing here is that Rudy has long tried to lampoon Hillary for her claim that she's a Yankees fan despite growing up in Chicago. Presumably we won't be hearing much of that anymore...

Poll: Hillary And Rudy Way Ahead In Florida

A new Quinnipiac poll of Florida shows Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani continuing to dominate their primaries. On the Democratic side, Hillary leads with 43%, followed by Obama at 18% and Edwards with 12%. Among Democratic respondents who pick a candidate, Hillary has more votes than all the other candidates combined.

On the Republican side, Rudy is ahead and benefitting from a divided opposition. He has 30% support, with Fred Thompson and John McCain tied at 14% apiece, plus Mitt Romney with 12%.

Full general election match-up numbers are available after the jump.

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Tom Davis Officially Takes Himself Out Of Senate Race

Congressman Tom Davis (R-VA) made his intentions clear today about the Senate race, telling reporters that he will not be a candidate. "This is just probably not the right time for me to make any advance and run for the Senate," Davis said.

Davis has not yet said whether he will run for re-election, though an announcement is expected some time after the state legislative elections in November. Davis' wife Jeannemarie Devolites Davis, a state Senator, faces a tough battle from Democratic candidate Chap Petersen.

Former Governor Mark Warner is heavily favored to pick up the seat for the Democrats.

New Reid Staffer Cheers Antiwar Leaders

Susan McCue, a longtime loyalist to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, has just returned to his inner circle in the Senate, a move that is being celebrated by top antiwar leaders who hope that she will be able to steer the Senate in a more aggressively antiwar direction.

"Susan has deep roots in [progressive] communities and they trust her," a Democratic aide tells the Huffington Post. "She's long been Reid's eyes and ears in those and other liberal groups."

Reid had better hope she yields results, as the Senate's failure to halt the Iraq war has caused Congress' popularity to plummet among liberal Dems. It'll be interesting to see whether she can turn things around.

Poll: Hillary Beats The GOP In Minnesota

A new SurveyUSA poll shows Hillary Clinton running well in the general election in Minnesota — but this should not be too shocking, as the state has not voted Republican since 1972:

Clinton (D) 51%, Giuliani (R) 40%
Clinton (D) 57%, Thompson (R) 37%
Clinton (D) 57%, Romney (R) 34%
Clinton (D) 60%, Huckabee (R) 30%
Clinton (D) 50%, McCain (R) 43%
Clinton (D) 61%, Paul (R) 28%
Gore (D) 50%, Giuliani (R) 44%

Hillary Upping Staff In Iowa

The Clinton campaign is gearing up for a massive Iowa presence ahead of the caucus — they're planning on filling 100 new paid staff positions in the state by November 1.

Clinton has been able to take a narrow lead in Iowa in the latest polls, but it remains a tight and shifting race against Barack Obama and John Edwards. Perhaps 100 new pairs of feet on the ground could help to solidify her hold.


Poll: Hillary And Romney Have Comfortable Leads In New Hampshire

A new poll of New Hampshire from St. Anselm College shows Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney continuing to lead their respective primaries.

Among Democrats, Clinton has 43% to Barack Obama's 22%, followed by John Edwards at 14%.

On the Republican side, Romney leads with 32%, ahead of Rudy Giuliani at 22%, John McCain with 15%, and Ron Paul with 7%.

New Dodd Ad Plays Up The White Hair

Chris Dodd's new ad in Iowa features a pair of actors portraying barbers — filmed at an actual barbershop in Iowa — talking about how the candidate managed to get all that white hair.

"Twenty-six years on the Foreign Relations Committee," Dodd says, "oh yeah, that'll do it."

Rudy Meeting Today With Brownback

Rudy Giuliani will be in Washington today to meet with none other than Senator Sam Brownback (R-KS), the social conservative and former presidential candidate who predicted during his withdrawal announcement that a pro-choicer could never win the Republican nomination.

"I'm going to meet with him and I'm going to talk to him and hear what he is specifically saying now because he's changed on a number of the abortion issues," Brownback said. He's changed on partial-birth [abortion] and he ... has said he would appoint strict constructionists."

If Rudy can get an endorsement from Brownback — or at the very least a satisfactory grade — it would definitely help him against Mitt Romney's push to unite social conservatives around an anti-Rudy push.

Poll: Colbert Breaks Into Double Digits As Third-Party Candidate

Although he's only planning to run in the primaries in his native state of South Carolina, a new Rasmussen poll finds that Stephen Colbert might have some pull as a third-party candidate.

In a three-way race with Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani, Hillary has 45%, Rudy 35% — and Colbert breaks double digits to get 13%. With Fred Thompson as the Republican nominee, it's Clinton 46%, Thompson 34%, and Colbert 12%.

Colbert seems to draw most of his support from the GOP column, indicating a real unhappiness among Republican voters — either that, or conservatives who have watched his show really don't get the joke.

Big Gay Rights Group Condemns Obama For Campaign Event With Antigay Singer

The Human Rights Campaign, the country's most prominent gay rights group, has just condemned the Obama campaign for its planned use of an antigay singer at a campaign gospel event, potentially turning what started out as a small controversy on the blogs into an enduring political headache.

“I spoke with Sen. Barack Obama today and expressed to him our community’s disappointment for his decision to continue to remain associated with Rev. McClurkin, an anti-gay preacher who states the need to ‘break the curse of homosexuality,’" Human Rights Campaign President Joe Solomonese said in a statement sent out moments ago.

"There is no gospel in Donnie McClurkin’s message for gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender people and their allies," Solomonese continued. "That’s a message that certainly doesn’t belong on any Presidential candidate’s stage.”

The controversy involving McClurkin, an antigay crusader who has said that homosexuals can be "cured," rapidly ballooned from a tale that first broke on AmericaBlog into a full-blown campaign crisis in a matter of days. Obama campaign officials were bracing today for the release of HRC's statement, after the news broke this morning that HRC was mulling such a move, and rival campaigns were rubbing their hands together in anticipation of it.

According to sources familiar with the fast-evolving situation, the Obama campaign has been in discussions with the HRC throughout the day, and had sought to delay the HRC's release of a statement so it could settle on a way to deal with the crisis.

According to sources, HRC offered various suggestions to the Obama camp to avoid criticism by the group, among them dropping McClurkin from the gospel act. But the Obama campaign said that there were too many logistical difficulties attendant with such a move, sources said. Dumping McClurkin, of course, could also have political repercussions, as the South Carolina gospel campaign concerts come amid an intense battle for the state's black vote.

One intriguing idea that was privately floated, according to sources, was the possibility of having a gay gospel group as the opening act for the concerts. The idea, sources said, was that this might prompt the antigay McClurkin to pull himself out of the concerts, thus solving the problem. It's not clear where that idea originated, and at any rate it didn't go any