This weekend's Family Research Council Values Voter Summit showed Mike Huckabee demonstrating strong appeal to Christian conservatives — but many of them are lining up behind the more credible campaign of Mitt Romney.

The straw polls results had Huckabee and Romney in a battle for first. Thanks to a push to get people registered to vote online, Romney edged out Huckabee with 27.62% to Huckabee's 27.15%, out of 5,775 votes.

But of the 952 people who actually voted on-site, it wasn't even close: Huckabee romped home with 51.26% support, to Romney's 10.4%.

David Brody analyzes the result:

Here’s what it says. It says that you have social conservatives that are ready to embrace him and he’s ready to embrace them. That speech he made on Saturday was electric. I was there. I saw the crowd. They ate it up. See more on Huckabee's speech here. But let’s call a spade a spade. You have Evangelical leaders that are reluctant to back him because he’s having a hard time raising money and putting what they see as a top notch organization in place. He needs their support. He’s going to have to earn it. If social conservatives really want Huckabee so bad, then they'll need to put their money where their mouths are.

A new SurveyUSA poll of Missouri shows Hillary Clinton well-situated to pick up the state in a general election:

Clinton (D) 50%, Giuliani (R) 43%
Clinton (D) 51%, Thompson (R) 42%
Clinton (D) 50%, Romney (R) 41%
Clinton (D) 51%, Huckabee (R) 40%
Clinton (D) 48%, McCain (R) 45%
Clinton (D) 54%, Paul (R) 32%
Gore (D) 49%, Giuliani (R) 44%

Also, a hypothetical Al Gore match-up with Rudy Giuliani would seem to indicate that any other strong Democrat, not just Clinton, could take the state's electoral votes.

Voters are going to the polls today in Louisiana's jungle primary for state offices, with all candidates on the same ballot regardless of party.

The big question in the gubernatorial race is whether Congressman Bobby Jindal (R), the 2003 nominee, will be able to break the 50% mark and avoid a runoff. Polls have shown Jindal approaching, but not exceeding, that threshold.

The top opponents have been state senator Walter Boasso, running as a Democrat, and businessman John George, running as an independent — both of whom are ex-Republicans.

Polls close tonight at 9 p.m. ET.

Mitt Romney's speech tonight to the Family Research Council will reportedly not be the "JFK" speech some have been awaiting, in which he would address any unease about his Mormon faith in the same way John F. Kennedy addressed fears of his Catholicism.

"This is not a religion speech," Romney spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom told the Boston Globe.

Instead, Romney will focus on their common goals of upholding conservative social values.

"I think those who know me would say that I am pro-family on every level, from personal to political," Romney will say, according to prepared remarks. The "personal" part would seem to be a not-too-subtle contrast with Rudy Giuliani, who is set to speak before the FRC tomorrow.

"I know this: the greatest blessing in my life is Ann and our five sons and daughters-in-law and ten grandchildren," he'll say. "My driving motivation is to have our kids and grandkids grow up in an America that is safe, prosperous and strong."

Giving a JFK speech present its own problems for Romney — after all, the Christian right are not the sort of people who want to hear a candidate talk about how his religion wouldn't affect his decisions in office.

Speaking at a press conference back home in Kansas, Sam Brownback dropped out of the presidential race today. "My yellow brick road came just short of the White House this time," he said.

Later in the event he put it more bluntly: "We're out of money."

Brownback's campaign had been hurt by a lack of fundraising success and a third-place showing behind Mike Huckabee at the Iowa Straw Poll, an indicator that Huckabee had won their two-way caucus within the caucus for Christian-right support in Iowa.

The man named yesterday by the Giuliani campaign to a law enforcement outreach campaign post in Minnesota was forced to resign a government job in 2004 when proof surfaced that he'd admitted to repeatedly using the word "nigger" in the past, Election Central has learned.

Sheriff Richard Stanek was appointed to the post of chair of Minnesota Law Enforcement for Rudy. The campaign's press release promised that Stanek "will work with law enforcement personnel throughout the state to communicate Mayor Giuliani’s record of fighting crime and his commitment to first responders."

But as a rival campaign has pointed out to us, it turns out Stanek has admitted to having a history of racially charged remarks. He was forced to resign his post as Minnesota's public safety commissioner in 2004 after it came to light that he'd admitted in a deposition that he'd used racist slurs in the past, including repeated use of the word "nigger."

This isn't the first time this has happened to Rudy. Last June, he appointed a new co-chair to his South Carolina campaign who also had a history of racially charged remarks.

The story of Stanek, Rudy's Minnesota guy, was laid out in the Star Tribune of April 17, 2004 (via Nexis):

Gov. Tim Pawlenty's public safety commissioner, Rich Stanek, resigned Friday amid a renewed furor over Stanek's sworn admission 12 years ago that he had used a racial epithet and told racist jokes...

Stanek's admissions in a sworn deposition as part of a police brutality suit against him in 1992 were reported by the Star Tribune in 1995, as he was making his first of five successful runs for the state House as a Republican from Maple Grove.

Stanek admitted to the "nigger" slur in a deposition relating to a police brutality case against him:

Minneapolis also paid settlements totaling at least $55,000 to two black motorists who alleged excessive force by Stanek during traffic stops. It was during a deposition related to one of those cases that Stanek made the statements that led to his resignation.

Asked under oath in 1992 if he had ever used the word "nigger," he said he had "several times."..

In the deposition, he also admitted telling a racist joke and making negative comments about people because of their race.

The Star-Trib also published some lively excerpts from the deposition, in which he admitted to using the word "nigger" repeatedly and said it was okay in certain contexts.

Read more »

The Rudy-Romney wars are in full swing today, and as always, the booty at stake is that ever-precious Christian-right vote.

Earlier today the Giuliani campaign accused Mitt Romney of "transparent pandering" and "desperation" in response to Romney's earlier comparison of Rudy to Hillary, which is of course the ultimate insult in GOP primary politics. Now Romney spokesman Kevin Madden has returned fire with this:

“Governor Romney is the Republican who can best represent the coalition of national security, economic and social conservatives that serve as the three pillars of the Republican Party’s foundation. Republicans can bring conservative change to Washington with a nominee like Governor Romney who is willing to speak about all three of these issue platforms, not just one or two of them.

“Mayor Giuliani’s positions on gay marriage and abortion are clearly at odds with many conservative Republicans. We simply disagree with those positions. If the Republican Party nominates a candidate who shares the same positions as Hillary Clinton on social issues, then we risk losing our identity as a party and we risk losing the White House to her.”

It's clear the Romney campaign thinks they have a winner in their "three-legged stool" argument against Rudy, which holds that only a Republican who's conservative on the triumvirate of national security, economic issues, and social issues can assemble a coalition that can win a general election. With Sam Brownback and many others beginning to predict that Rudy is doomed, and with the threat of defection from religious right leaders seeming more real by the day, the Romney crew may be on to something.

At the FRC gathering today, Fred Thompson approvingly quoted the words of one Andrew Roberts, a right-wing British historian who has been hosted at the White House by President Bush and has dined with Vice President Cheney and Karl Rove — and whose writings are quite literally an apologia for 19th and early 20th-century imperialism, concentration camps, and massacres of indigenous peoples.

Roberts, for those of you who don't know, was described in a New Republic article six months ago as "a man with links to white supremacism, whose book is not a history but an ahistorical catalogue of apologies and justifications for mass murder that even blames the victims of concentration camps for their own deaths."

For example, Roberts spoke in 2001 before the Springbok Club, an organization that flies the flag of apartheid South Africa at its meetings, and praised the organization as "the heir to previous imperial achievements." Additionally, his book contains a justification for the Amritsar massacre that killed an estimated 379 Indians under British rule in 1919, on the grounds that afterwards, "it was not necessary for another shot to be fired throughout the region."

Thompson seems to be saying that he's read Roberts' book, and agrees with it. "You know, a fellow by the name of Roberts wrote a book not too long ago called The History of the English-Speaking Peoples Since 1900," Thompson said admiringly. "And there's one thing in there that stuck out to me that I remember. And that is, he says, the will of a people is at least as important as their military might in overcoming an enemy."

It's official: Despite emergency brain surgery earlier this year, Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD) will run for reelection.

“After months of rehabilitation and recovery, more than a month on the job in Washington and after my recent trips back to South Dakota it is clear, to my family, my doctors, and me that I am able to do the hard work required of a United States Senator,” Johnson said in a statement released today. “Today I am asking South Dakotans to give me the chance to give back to them by announcing that I will run for re-election in 2008.”

With Johnson facing no top-tier GOP opponent, that's one less thing for Harry Reid and Chuck Schumer to worry about.

A new poll from Texas firm IVR has Fred Thompson losing his position atop the Republican field in this Southern state — a further sign that his much-hyped campaign is falling flat.

Rudy Giuliani now tops the field with a small plurality of 24%, followed by Thompson at 19%, and Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney tied with 14% each.

In August, Thompson led the GOP race in Texas with 29%.

The margin of error is ±4.3%.

Hillary Clinton's new ad, set to air in both Iowa and New Hampshire, features Hillary Clinton talking about the economy at a town hall meeting — and comparing the economy to certain other contentious issues:

"We have to change course on the economy, just as we have to change course in Iraq and on health care," says Clinton. "The Bush economy is like a trapdoor. Too many families are one pink slip, one missed mortgage payment, one medical diagnosis away from falling through and losing everything."

Senator Mel Martinez's (R-FL) will reportedly resign today from his position as "general chairman" of the Republican National Committee, a move that has been expected for some time.

In his statement, Martinez will say that he has accomplished his goals as general chairman, and wants to focus his energies on his work in the Senate.

The general chairman position was created as an honorary role specifically for Martinez after the 2006 debacle — when Republican defeats were exacerbated by a sharp decline in the Latino vote — with longtime GOP operative Mike Duncan as the party's chairman.

However, Martinez had his own clashes with the party on the immigration issue over the past year — the same issue that has contributed so much to the Republican collapse with Hispanic voters.

As promised, here it is, emailed out by the Dodd campaign to supporters:

Sam Brownback, who recently dropped out of the GOP primary, is convinced that Rudy won't win the nomination -- and thinks that Romney, despite his previous pro-choice views, still has a shot.

Brownback tipped his hand in a conversation with reporters after his appearance at the values voter summit today, saying that he's convinced the Republican Party will nominate a “pro-life candidate,”

"Mayor Giuliani has said he’s pro-choice," Brownback added. As for Romney, Brownback says he's got a chance: “Governor Romney’s certainly taken a pro-life position now. We’ll see if that’s something that can persuade the American public.”

Amping up his efforts to block the Senate FISA bill containing retroactive immunity for the telecom companies, Senator Chris Dodd's campaign says that he will filibuster the measure if the Dem Senate leadership tries to circumvent the hold he plans to put on the bill.

The Dodd campaign will reveal his plans to filibuster the measure in an email being sent out to supporters by the campaign's Web guru, Tim Tagaris. Election Central obtained an advance copy of the email.

The threatened filibuster, which comes a day after Dodd revealed to Election Central that he will place a hold on the bill, will place Dodd in direct confrontation with the Dem Senate leadership on a hugely contentious issue.

Dodd's filibuster threat comes in response to reports -- based on anonymous quotes from the leadership's office -- which said that Reid's aides think they can get the bill to the floor despite Dodd's hold.

Here's the email from the Dodd campaign:

Are you willing to go to the mat to restore the Constitution?

Just last night, we heard there are plans to disregard Senator Dodd's intention to place a hold on a FISA bill that includes amnesty for telecommunications companies.

That would be a pretty extraordinary move, but Chris Dodd has pledged to stop this horrible bill any way he can.

So if the hold is not honored, he is prepared to go to the Senate floor and filibuster.

Rolling back the Bush Administration assault on the rule of law has been a major focus of Chris Dodd's work in the Senate -- and it's also a centerpiece in his campaign for President.

I'm also told that Dodd will send out a video to supporters later in the day in which he discusses the filibuster.

More in a bit.

Late Update: Here's the video of Dodd promising the filibuster.

The main event in Republican presidential primary politics today: Republican candidates are trooping before an audience at the Family Research Council's values voter summit to display their conservative bona fides for one of the most discerning audiences out there on this. And some advance details of their planned speeches are beginning to leak out.

Mitt Romney appears to be poised to direct most of his firepower at the frontrunner, Rudy Giuliani. In particular, he's going to highlight Rudy's heresy on family values issues by lobbing the ultimate insult at him, comparing him to Hillary:

"We’re not going to beat Hillary Clinton by acting like Hillary Clinton."

This drew a scorching response from the Rudy camp, in a statement sent to Jonathan Martin:

"Mitt Romney's transparent pandering to anyone and everyone who will listen to him is clearly not going to end any time soon. Mitt's positions of the day and personal attacks scream of desperation from a candidate who has spent millions upon millions of his own money only to find Republican voters want something he cannot offer -- true leadership."

Meanwhile, Martin says, in his speech before the group today McCain plans to draw attention to both Rudy's current pro-choice views, and Romney's past ones, by highlighting his consistency on the issue. He'll say:

“I have been pro-life my entire public career. I believe I am the only major candidate in either party who can make that claim...You need only examine my public record to know that I won’t ever change my position to fit the politics of the day."

The main event really comes tomorrow, when Rudy goes before the group. We'll bring you that when it happens. Our guess: Rudy will blame his divorces on 9/11.

A new SurveyUSA poll of Ohio shows Hillary Clinton generally doing well against the Republicans, but also that a race against either Rudy Giuliani or John McCain could be very close:

Clinton (D) 47%, Giuliani (R) 45%
Clinton (D) 49%, Thompson (R) 43%
Clinton (D) 50%, Romney (R) 41%
Clinton (D) 53%, Huckabee (R) 37%
Clinton (D) 46%, McCain (R) 46%
Clinton (D) 52%, Paul (R) 35%
Gore (D) 49%, Giuliani (R) 45%

Roll Call reports that Democrats are lining up another Iraq veteran to challenge freshman Rep. Peter Roskam (R-IL) — Colonel Jill Morgenthaler, a deputy chief of staff for public safety to Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich. Morgenthaler has yet to make her candidacy official, but reports say that she will likely make the bid.

Democrats hope that they can put Roskam on the defensive in this Democratic-trending district, but it remains to be seen whether Morgenthaler has the right profile to inspire local activists. She was at the center of the Abu Ghraib prison scandal as an army spokeswoman, and a Web journal that she had during her time in Iraq features a good deal of criticism of the media for what she perceived as negative coverage of the war.

One such nugget from her journal: "As people get upset about Abu Ghraib, one thing that should never be forgotten: these are men who have murdered Americans and would continue to murder Americans if given the opportunity."

A new poll of North Carolina by the Civitas Institute, a statewide conservative think thank, shows Hillary Clinton leading in the state's Democratic primary, while the Republican race is a close call between Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson:

Democrats:
Clinton 31%
Edwards 18%
Obama 18%

Republicans:
Giuliani 21%
Thompson 19%
Romney 16%
McCain 9%

Since the group's last poll in September, this represents an 11-point jump for Hillary among Democrats, and a six-point decline for Fred Thompson on the Republican side.

John Edwards has picked up the endorsement of another SEIU local, this time in Massachusetts. This is on top of the support of SEIU locals in Iowa — perhaps the biggest prize of the primary season — plus California, Washington, Michigan, Idaho, Montana, Minnesota, Ohio, West Virginia and Oregon.

Although Edwards failed to win the national SEIU's backing, he has far outpaced the competition in winning the state chapters. His closest competitor so far is Barack Obama, who only has the Illinois, Indiana and Missouri-Kansas locals.

Mitt Romney has picked up yet another high-profile Christian conservative in his quest to unite the Christian right behind himself and against Rudy Giuliani. The latest name is Don Wilton, senior pastor of the First Baptist megachurch in Spartanburg, South Carolina, and also a former president of the South Carolina Baptist Convention.

"His values are my values — protecting the sanctity of human life, defending marriage and strengthening the family. We need someone in Washington who will stand up for traditional families and Governor Romney is that person," said Wilton, in remarks obtained by David Brody. "While we may not agree on theology, Governor Romney and I agree that this election is about our country heading in the right direction. Governor Romney is the best candidate to stand for conservative values in Washington."

Barack Obama's campaign has just sent us a statement condemning the Senate FISA bill granting retroactive immunity to the telecoms:

“I have consistently opposed this Administration's efforts to use debates about our national security to expand its own power, whether that was on the Iraq war, or on its power grab to curb our civil liberties through domestic surveillance programs. It is time to restore oversight and accountability in the FISA program, and this proposal -- with an unprecedented grant of retroactive immunity -- is not the place to start.”

Earlier today Chris Dodd said he'd put a hold on the bill, raising questions about where the other Senator-candidates would come down on this. We now have Obama's answer -- against. No statement yet from Hillary on this.

The Hillary and Obama campaigns are going at it again today -- this time over the question of whether Hillary has a shot at cutting into the Republican women's vote.

Earlier today Hillary pollster Mark Penn was quoted by Ben Smith saying that she could win 24% of GOP women. Now Obama pollster Joel Benenson is out with a memo refuting this claim. Key quote:

Penn’s assertion is entirely baseless and refuted by a number of public polls. Moreover, these polls also indicate sizable defection among Democratic women should Sen. Clinton be the nominee.

Interestingly, the Republican National Committee is now circulating Obama's memo among reporters via email as a way to make the case against Hillary as a general election candidate. Full memo after the jump.

Late Update: Penn explains his view of the women's vote in some more detail right here.

Read more »

Fred Thompson didn't pull any punches against Rudy Giuliani today, in response to a question about illegal immigration during a Georgia campaign stop.

"I voted to do away with sanctuary cities in 1996," he said of his time in the Senate. "At about that same time, Mayor Giuliani was supporting the concept of sanctuary cities."

As for Romney, Thompson essentially called him a Johnny-come-lately on the issue: "Governor Romney certainly didn’t say anything against sanctuary cities until recently."

Mitt Romney pulled off an interesting bit of U.N.-bashing today, calling upon the United States to withdraw from a United Nations council that the United States isn't a part of to begin with.

"The United Nations has been an extraordinary failure of late," Romney said during a South Carolina campaign stop. "We should withdraw from the United Nations Human Rights Council."

There's one problem: The United States already boycotts the Human Rights Council, and has not sought a seat on it. This caused an aide to clarify the remarks by saying what Romney really meant is that the U.S. should stop any possible financial support for the council.

Romney also said he would support an alternative to the United Nations, an all-new "coalition of the free nations of the world and bring those nations together so that we can act together."

"We should develop some of our own — if you will — forums and alliances or groups that have the ability to actually watch out for the world and do what's right," Romney said.

Looks like Senator Pat Leahy, the chair of the judiciary committee, is adding his voice to the growing clamor of criticism of the deal that the intel committee has reached to include telecom immunity in the Senate FISA renewal bill.

Leahy has just come out and sharply criticized the reported deal, saying that it's a sign that the Senate is "about to cave."

Leahy, who hasn't seen the actual legislation, was reacting to reports this morning saying that the intel committee has reached a deal with the White House to provide retroactive immunity to the telecom companies for their role in warrantless wiretapping undertaken by the Bush administration after 9/11.

Leahy's criticism -- and Chris Dodd's promise today that he will put a hold on the bill -- signal that any legislation containing immunity for the telecoms is all but certain to hit major road bumps on the way to the Senate floor. That's because the bill has to clear Leahy's committee on the way to passage. It's getting interesting.

Hillary Clinton's campaign is already offering up a piece of spin they might use against Rudy Giuliani in a general election: They've beat him once before, they say, when he dropped out of the 2000 Senate race in New York.

"We started in New York about seven or eight behind," said lead strategist Mark Penn, in an interview with Ben Smith. "When he dropped out we were seven or eight ahead."

Giuliani had indeed started out way ahead, but his support began to fall due to a series of scandals such as the Patrick Dorismond case and Giuliani's messy public divorce. Hillary was able to take a lead in the polls, with the momentum clearly going her way, based on the strong support of women voters. Rudy dropped out, citing his recent prostate cancer diagnosis.

In a sign that he is probably not running again, former Congressman Charles Taylor (R-NC) has formally forgiven $1.5 million in debt that his campaign committee owed to himself, and is seeking to close the committee entirely.

Taylor has not definitely said that he's not running again, leaving other Republicans in the district hanging, but it's hard to see him entering the race after making a legal move like this.

Taylor was defeated for re-election last year by conservative Democrat Heath Shuler.

Meanwhile, North Carolina Democrats have had their own recruitment failure recently, with state Rep. Grier Martin declaring that he will not challenge Senator Elizabeth Dole.

Senator Chris Dodd plans to put a hold on the Senate FISA renewal bill because it reportedly grants retroactive immunity to telephone companies for any role they played in the Bush administration's warrantless eavesdropping program, Election Central has learned.

Dodd will send a letter to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid this afternoon informing him of his decision. Dodd also plans to put up a page today at his campaign Web site where opponents of the immunity provision can register their opposition.

“Later today Senator Dodd will be sending a letter to Majority Leader Reid informing him that he plans to put a ‘hold’ on a bill that would provide for retroactive amnesty for telecom giants that were complicit in the Bush Administration’s assault on the United States Constitution," Dodd spokesman Hari Sevugan told Election Central. "Senator Dodd said that he would do what he could do to stop this bill, and with this announcement he has again shown that he delivers results.”

By doing this, Dodd can effectively hold up the telecom immunity bill, because bills are supposed to have unanimous consent in the Senate before going forward. One Senator can make it very difficult to bring a bill to the floor by objecting to allowing it to go to a vote.

Dodd's planned action comes amid reports that the Senate Intelligence Committee has reached a deal with the White House on the legislation that would give telephone carriers legal immunity for whatever role they played in the National Security Agency’s domestic eavesdropping program, which was approved by President Bush after 9/11. The White House and the phone companies have been lobbying aggressively for immunity, and the announcement of the immunity deal today dismayed many opponents.

The bill is getting marked up by the Senate Intelligence Committee this afternoon.

Dodd, who has aggressively courted the liberal blogosphere as part of his Presidential run, was being loudly appealed to by top liberal bloggers today to put a hold on the bill. Dodd has for some time now spoken out against the immunity provision but had stopped short of saying that he would exert his power as a Senator to hold up the legislation.

Now, however, he is going to do just that.

More soon.

Late Update: Dodd's new web page petition on this is now live.

It's over: The House just voted on the SCHIP bill moments ago, and failed to override President Bush's veto.

The vote was 273-156, falling short of the two-thirds vote needed to overturn Bush's veto.

Incredibly, despite polls showing strong majority support for a veto override, and an aggressive ad campaign targeting Republicans on SCHIP, the GOP was remarkably successful in holding the line and sustaining Bush's veto. Only forty-four Republicans voted for the bill -- almost exactly the same as last time, save for GOP Rep. Pete King, a bill supporter who was absent this time. One-hundred and fifty-four GOPers voted against it.

The roll call is here. More soon.

Now this is a very interesting number buried in the new Gallup poll released today:

All in all, do you think the situation in Iraq is -- getting better for the United States, staying about the same, or getting worse for the United States?

Republicans:

Better: 34%
About the same: 37%
Worse: 27%

Only a third of Republicans think things are getting better over there. Meanwhile, an astonishing 64% of Republicans think things aren't getting better or are getting worse; and more than a quarter of GOPers think things are deteriorating. Keep in mind that the GOP message for months now has been that things are getting better.

What makes these numbers even more intriguing is the fact that most polls show solid majorities of Republicans want the troops to remain in Iraq -- even though we now see that only a slim minority think things are trending towards a good outcome there. Go figure.

Mitt Romney's push to consolidate social-conservative support around himself and against Rudy Giuliani continues. The latest pitch comes from longtime pro-life activist James Bopp, Jr., who has been circulating an e-mail this week in which he argues that conservatives have to rally behind a single candidate — Romney — in order to stop Giuliani's nomination.

"While several of the other candidates are certainly fine social conservatives, none has established his viability as a serious presidential contender," Bopp writes. "Only Mitt Romney has the resources to compete with Rudy Giuliani for the nomination."

Furthermore, Bopp says that time is running out, with only about 100 days between now and February 5 — so conservatives need to act, and act quickly.

"So it does come down to two things: (1) the viability of the candidate, which only Mitt Romney has demonstrated among the socially conservative candidates, and (2) whether social conservatives will have the courage to rally around the only viable social conservative alternative to Rudy Giuliani," Bopp writes. "A divided field means that Giuliani is likely to win the nomination. This is our choice to make, and we don't have long to make it."

The Des Moines Register's David Yepsen has a new column today, arguing that we shouldn't be so quick to count out John Edwards. Key excerpt:

He spends more time in Iowa than his rivals. (His wife jokes that if someone asked the couple for directions in Iowa, they could provide them.)

While Obama and Clinton have only recently discovered the fact that 49 percent of Iowa's Democratic caucus-goers live in rural and small-town Iowa, Edwards has been mining those tiny lodes for years.

For example, his schedule for Wednesday called for him to spend the day in far-northwest Iowa, where Democrats are ordinarily found only on endangered-species lists. (I know Democrats running for governor who don't make it to Rock Rapids.) Yet Edwards was to campaign there, and end his day on a hog farm near Cylinder, population 110.

We've just obtained an advance copy of a campaign memo drawn up by Edwards' pollsters in which the most extensive case yet is made for his electability in a general election.

The memo crunches a bunch of numbers and argues that he's better positioned than either Hillary or Obama to win in November of 2008:

Nationwide general election polling shows John Edwards is the Democrat with the best chance of defeating the Republican candidate in the 2008 general election for President. Edwards is the only Democrat with a significant lead in a head-to-head match-up against Republican frontrunner Giuliani. Against the other three major Republican candidates, Edwards’ average margin of victory is identical to or better than that of Barack Obama, and significantly higher than Hillary Clinton’s average margin.

Edwards also outperforms the other Democratic candidates in match-ups with Republican candidates in key battleground states including Iowa, Missouri, and Ohio. Further, unlike other Democrats who must “run the table” in states where Democrats have been competitive in recent elections, Edwards brings new states into play. This provides alternate scenarios – and a margin for error – when it comes to amassing 270 electoral votes.

More excerpts after the jump. Dig in.

Late Update: The full memo, with lots of charts and numbers, is right here in our TPM Document Collection.

Read more »

A new poll from Republican firm Strategic Vision shows Hillary Clinton with a modest lead in Iowa, while Mitt Romney has a similar level of support against a much more divided opposition. Note that the poll corroborates the recent surge that Mike Huckabee has been enjoying in other Iowa surveys:

Democrats:
Clinton 28%
Obama 23%
Edwards 20%
Richardson 9%
Biden 6%

Republicans:
Romney 27%
Giuliani 13%
Huckabee 12%
Thompson 10%
McCain 5%

Could Mitt Romney be trying to contrast his personal life with that of certain opponents? Romney has a new ad scheduled to begin running tomorrow in Iowa, highlighting his wholesome family life and featuring his wife Ann:

"Mitt says there's no work more important than what goes on within the four walls of the American home," says Ann. "And that's the way it was in our home."

New polling from SurveyUSA shows the Republicans in good shape to hold on to Kansas next year, a state that has not voted Democratic for president since 1964:

Giuliani (R) 54%, Clinton (D) 37%
Thompson (R) 53%, Clinton (D) 40%
Romney (R) 51%, Clinton (D) 39%
Huckabee (R) 50%, Clinton (D) 41%
McCain (R) 60%, Clinton (D) 34%
Paul (R) 44%, Clinton (D) 42%
Giuliani (R) 54%, Gore (D) 37%

Note that Hillary Clinton is even trailing Ron Paul in this state.

Barack Obama, on Jay Leno's show last night, had this to say about Hillary's inevitability:

"Hillary is not the first politician in Washington to declare 'Mission Accomplished' a little too soon."

The question, of course, is whether Hillary has ever actually said that she's won the race, whatever efforts to create the impression of inevitability Camp Hillary is or isn't making. Either way, the Obama campaign is clearly proud of the quote, and indeed sent it out in a fundraising email this morning.

Meanwhile, Ben Smith has some fun extending the analogy between proclamations of Hillary's inevitability and Bush's declaration that the war was over. Obama's full email touting the quote is after the jump.

Read more »

The lower tier of Republican candidates is reportedly about to shrink a little bit — Sam Brownback is expected to drop out of the race tomorrow.

Brownback's campaign had never really caught fire, with him raising only $4 million and coming in third at the Iowa Straw Poll behind Mike Huckabee, a rival for the social conservative vote.

So where will Brownback's support, such as it was, end up going? That's a good question. On the one hand, Romney's campaign has been trying to consolidate the Christian right into a unified anybody-but-Rudy campaign. On the other hand, Brownback's camp had been bashing Romney to no end, taking every opportunity to call him a phony.

CNN does the digging and finds that Comedy Central star Stephen Colbert's bid to appear on both the Democratic and Republican presidential primary ballots in his native state of South Carolina — reminiscent of the satirical campaigns run by the late Pat Paulsen — may be trickier than he first envisioned.

The state Democratic Party's Executive Committee, who will vote on approving Colbert's appearance on the ballot, has rules that state that a candidate must be "actively campaigning" for the Democratic primary. That could complicate matters for Colbert, since he would be "campaigning" in both parties' primaries.

The state GOP's rules are more relaxed — candidates do not require executive committee approval and the party would not block a cross-over bid. However, Colbert would have to pay the state GOP $35,000 in order to appear on their ballot, since state parties in South Carolina reimburse the state government for the costs of holding the presidential primary.

Colbert has until the end of the month to file his nominating papers with both parties.

John McCain may have hit upon a fun way to combat the idea that he's too old at 71 — he's bringing his mother Roberta McCain, a healthy 95-year old, out on the campaign trail.

"It's a thrill for me to be invited to tag along," said the elder McCain to a South Carolina retirement community, before her son gave a speech about the problems facing Social Security and Medicare.

McCain has previously joked about bringing his mother along in order to demonstrate his good genes. And it turns out that somebody — whether it was himself, his mother, another family member, or a staffer — realized it might actually be a pretty good idea.

GOP sources are telling Roll Call that former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL) will resign his seat in Congress effective later this year, triggering a special election to succeed him.

The exact date of Hastert's departure remains unknown, as a retirement announcement that he was expected to delivery today has been postponed.

Depending on Hastert's timeline, Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich (D) could align the special election with the state's February 5th presidential primary. If that were the case, and if Barack Obama were still competitive in the presidential race by that date, some Democrats hope that having his presence on the ballot could boost the turnout of Democratic voters in the special election to replace Hastert.

Governor Deval Patrick (D-MA), who served as assistant attorney general for civil rights during Bill Clinton's administration, is now supporting Barack Obama for president over Hillary Clinton.

The full benefits of Patrick's endorsement will depend on how many of his volunteers — who helped him immensely in his dark-horse candidacy last year — he will be able to recruit for volunteer work on Obama's behalf in New Hampshire.

In 2006, Patrick became only the second African-American to be elected governor of a state. The first such man, former Virginia Governor Doug Wilder, is also supporting Obama.