This weekend's Family Research Council Values Voter Summit showed Mike Huckabee demonstrating strong appeal to Christian conservatives — but many of them are lining up behind the more credible campaign of Mitt Romney.

The straw polls results had Huckabee and Romney in a battle for first. Thanks to a push to get people registered to vote online, Romney edged out Huckabee with 27.62% to Huckabee's 27.15%, out of 5,775 votes.

But of the 952 people who actually voted on-site, it wasn't even close: Huckabee romped home with 51.26% support, to Romney's 10.4%.

David Brody analyzes the result:

Here’s what it says. It says that you have social conservatives that are ready to embrace him and he’s ready to embrace them. That speech he made on Saturday was electric. I was there. I saw the crowd. They ate it up. See more on Huckabee's speech here. But let’s call a spade a spade. You have Evangelical leaders that are reluctant to back him because he’s having a hard time raising money and putting what they see as a top notch organization in place. He needs their support. He’s going to have to earn it. If social conservatives really want Huckabee so bad, then they'll need to put their money where their mouths are.

A new SurveyUSA poll of Missouri shows Hillary Clinton well-situated to pick up the state in a general election:

Clinton (D) 50%, Giuliani (R) 43%
Clinton (D) 51%, Thompson (R) 42%
Clinton (D) 50%, Romney (R) 41%
Clinton (D) 51%, Huckabee (R) 40%
Clinton (D) 48%, McCain (R) 45%
Clinton (D) 54%, Paul (R) 32%
Gore (D) 49%, Giuliani (R) 44%

Also, a hypothetical Al Gore match-up with Rudy Giuliani would seem to indicate that any other strong Democrat, not just Clinton, could take the state's electoral votes.

Voters are going to the polls today in Louisiana's jungle primary for state offices, with all candidates on the same ballot regardless of party.

The big question in the gubernatorial race is whether Congressman Bobby Jindal (R), the 2003 nominee, will be able to break the 50% mark and avoid a runoff. Polls have shown Jindal approaching, but not exceeding, that threshold.

The top opponents have been state senator Walter Boasso, running as a Democrat, and businessman John George, running as an independent — both of whom are ex-Republicans.

Polls close tonight at 9 p.m. ET.

Mitt Romney's speech tonight to the Family Research Council will reportedly not be the "JFK" speech some have been awaiting, in which he would address any unease about his Mormon faith in the same way John F. Kennedy addressed fears of his Catholicism.

"This is not a religion speech," Romney spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom told the Boston Globe.

Instead, Romney will focus on their common goals of upholding conservative social values.

"I think those who know me would say that I am pro-family on every level, from personal to political," Romney will say, according to prepared remarks. The "personal" part would seem to be a not-too-subtle contrast with Rudy Giuliani, who is set to speak before the FRC tomorrow.

"I know this: the greatest blessing in my life is Ann and our five sons and daughters-in-law and ten grandchildren," he'll say. "My driving motivation is to have our kids and grandkids grow up in an America that is safe, prosperous and strong."

Giving a JFK speech present its own problems for Romney — after all, the Christian right are not the sort of people who want to hear a candidate talk about how his religion wouldn't affect his decisions in office.

Speaking at a press conference back home in Kansas, Sam Brownback dropped out of the presidential race today. "My yellow brick road came just short of the White House this time," he said.

Later in the event he put it more bluntly: "We're out of money."

Brownback's campaign had been hurt by a lack of fundraising success and a third-place showing behind Mike Huckabee at the Iowa Straw Poll, an indicator that Huckabee had won their two-way caucus within the caucus for Christian-right support in Iowa.

The man named yesterday by the Giuliani campaign to a law enforcement outreach campaign post in Minnesota was forced to resign a government job in 2004 when proof surfaced that he'd admitted to repeatedly using the word "nigger" in the past, Election Central has learned.

Sheriff Richard Stanek was appointed to the post of chair of Minnesota Law Enforcement for Rudy. The campaign's press release promised that Stanek "will work with law enforcement personnel throughout the state to communicate Mayor Giuliani’s record of fighting crime and his commitment to first responders."

But as a rival campaign has pointed out to us, it turns out Stanek has admitted to having a history of racially charged remarks. He was forced to resign his post as Minnesota's public safety commissioner in 2004 after it came to light that he'd admitted in a deposition that he'd used racist slurs in the past, including repeated use of the word "nigger."

This isn't the first time this has happened to Rudy. Last June, he appointed a new co-chair to his South Carolina campaign who also had a history of racially charged remarks.

The story of Stanek, Rudy's Minnesota guy, was laid out in the Star Tribune of April 17, 2004 (via Nexis):

Gov. Tim Pawlenty's public safety commissioner, Rich Stanek, resigned Friday amid a renewed furor over Stanek's sworn admission 12 years ago that he had used a racial epithet and told racist jokes...

Stanek's admissions in a sworn deposition as part of a police brutality suit against him in 1992 were reported by the Star Tribune in 1995, as he was making his first of five successful runs for the state House as a Republican from Maple Grove.

Stanek admitted to the "nigger" slur in a deposition relating to a police brutality case against him:

Minneapolis also paid settlements totaling at least $55,000 to two black motorists who alleged excessive force by Stanek during traffic stops. It was during a deposition related to one of those cases that Stanek made the statements that led to his resignation.

Asked under oath in 1992 if he had ever used the word "nigger," he said he had "several times."..

In the deposition, he also admitted telling a racist joke and making negative comments about people because of their race.

The Star-Trib also published some lively excerpts from the deposition, in which he admitted to using the word "nigger" repeatedly and said it was okay in certain contexts.

Read more »

The Rudy-Romney wars are in full swing today, and as always, the booty at stake is that ever-precious Christian-right vote.

Earlier today the Giuliani campaign accused Mitt Romney of "transparent pandering" and "desperation" in response to Romney's earlier comparison of Rudy to Hillary, which is of course the ultimate insult in GOP primary politics. Now Romney spokesman Kevin Madden has returned fire with this:

“Governor Romney is the Republican who can best represent the coalition of national security, economic and social conservatives that serve as the three pillars of the Republican Party’s foundation. Republicans can bring conservative change to Washington with a nominee like Governor Romney who is willing to speak about all three of these issue platforms, not just one or two of them.

“Mayor Giuliani’s positions on gay marriage and abortion are clearly at odds with many conservative Republicans. We simply disagree with those positions. If the Republican Party nominates a candidate who shares the same positions as Hillary Clinton on social issues, then we risk losing our identity as a party and we risk losing the White House to her.”

It's clear the Romney campaign thinks they have a winner in their "three-legged stool" argument against Rudy, which holds that only a Republican who's conservative on the triumvirate of national security, economic issues, and social issues can assemble a coalition that can win a general election. With Sam Brownback and many others beginning to predict that Rudy is doomed, and with the threat of defection from religious right leaders seeming more real by the day, the Romney crew may be on to something.

At the FRC gathering today, Fred Thompson approvingly quoted the words of one Andrew Roberts, a right-wing British historian who has been hosted at the White House by President Bush and has dined with Vice President Cheney and Karl Rove — and whose writings are quite literally an apologia for 19th and early 20th-century imperialism, concentration camps, and massacres of indigenous peoples.

Roberts, for those of you who don't know, was described in a New Republic article six months ago as "a man with links to white supremacism, whose book is not a history but an ahistorical catalogue of apologies and justifications for mass murder that even blames the victims of concentration camps for their own deaths."

For example, Roberts spoke in 2001 before the Springbok Club, an organization that flies the flag of apartheid South Africa at its meetings, and praised the organization as "the heir to previous imperial achievements." Additionally, his book contains a justification for the Amritsar massacre that killed an estimated 379 Indians under British rule in 1919, on the grounds that afterwards, "it was not necessary for another shot to be fired throughout the region."

Thompson seems to be saying that he's read Roberts' book, and agrees with it. "You know, a fellow by the name of Roberts wrote a book not too long ago called The History of the English-Speaking Peoples Since 1900," Thompson said admiringly. "And there's one thing in there that stuck out to me that I remember. And that is, he says, the will of a people is at least as important as their military might in overcoming an enemy."

It's official: Despite emergency brain surgery earlier this year, Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD) will run for reelection.

“After months of rehabilitation and recovery, more than a month on the job in Washington and after my recent trips back to South Dakota it is clear, to my family, my doctors, and me that I am able to do the hard work required of a United States Senator,” Johnson said in a statement released today. “Today I am asking South Dakotans to give me the chance to give back to them by announcing that I will run for re-election in 2008.”

With Johnson facing no top-tier GOP opponent, that's one less thing for Harry Reid and Chuck Schumer to worry about.

A new poll from Texas firm IVR has Fred Thompson losing his position atop the Republican field in this Southern state — a further sign that his much-hyped campaign is falling flat.

Rudy Giuliani now tops the field with a small plurality of 24%, followed by Thompson at 19%, and Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney tied with 14% each.

In August, Thompson led the GOP race in Texas with 29%.

The margin of error is ±4.3%.

Hillary Clinton's new ad, set to air in both Iowa and New Hampshire, features Hillary Clinton talking about the economy at a town hall meeting — and comparing the economy to certain other contentious issues:

"We have to change course on the economy, just as we have to change course in Iraq and on health care," says Clinton. "The Bush economy is like a trapdoor. Too many families are one pink slip, one missed mortgage payment, one medical diagnosis away from falling through and losing everything."

Senator Mel Martinez's (R-FL) will reportedly resign today from his position as "general chairman" of the Republican National Committee, a move that has been expected for some time.

In his statement, Martinez will say that he has accomplished his goals as general chairman, and wants to focus his energies on his work in the Senate.

The general chairman position was created as an honorary role specifically for Martinez after the 2006 debacle — when Republican defeats were exacerbated by a sharp decline in the Latino vote — with longtime GOP operative Mike Duncan as the party's chairman.

However, Martinez had his own clashes with the party on the immigration issue over the past year — the same issue that has contributed so much to the Republican collapse with Hispanic voters.

As promised, here it is, emailed out by the Dodd campaign to supporters:

Sam Brownback, who recently dropped out of the GOP primary, is convinced that Rudy won't win the nomination -- and thinks that Romney, despite his previous pro-choice views, still has a shot.

Brownback tipped his hand in a conversation with reporters after his appearance at the values voter summit today, saying that he's convinced the Republican Party will nominate a “pro-life candidate,”

"Mayor Giuliani has said he’s pro-choice," Brownback added. As for Romney, Brownback says he's got a chance: “Governor Romney’s certainly taken a pro-life position now. We’ll see if that’s something that can persuade the American public.”

Amping up his efforts to block the Senate FISA bill containing retroactive immunity for the telecom companies, Senator Chris Dodd's campaign says that he will filibuster the measure if the Dem Senate leadership tries to circumvent the hold he plans to put on the bill.

The Dodd campaign will reveal his plans to filibuster the measure in an email being sent out to supporters by the campaign's Web guru, Tim Tagaris. Election Central obtained an advance copy of the email.

The threatened filibuster, which comes a day after Dodd revealed to Election Central that he will place a hold on the bill, will place Dodd in direct confrontation with the Dem Senate leadership on a hugely contentious issue.

Dodd's filibuster threat comes in response to reports -- based on anonymous quotes from the leadership's office -- which said that Reid's aides think they can get the bill to the floor despite Dodd's hold.

Here's the email from the Dodd campaign:

Are you willing to go to the mat to restore the Constitution?

Just last night, we heard there are plans to disregard Senator Dodd's intention to place a hold on a FISA bill that includes amnesty for telecommunications companies.

That would be a pretty extraordinary move, but Chris Dodd has pledged to stop this horrible bill any way he can.

So if the hold is not honored, he is prepared to go to the Senate floor and filibuster.

Rolling back the Bush Administration assault on the rule of law has been a major focus of Chris Dodd's work in the Senate -- and it's also a centerpiece in his campaign for President.

I'm also told that Dodd will send out a video to supporters later in the day in which he discusses the filibuster.

More in a bit.

Late Update: Here's the video of Dodd promising the filibuster.

The main event in Republican presidential primary politics today: Republican candidates are trooping before an audience at the Family Research Council's values voter summit to display their conservative bona fides for one of the most discerning audiences out there on this. And some advance details of their planned speeches are beginning to leak out.

Mitt Romney appears to be poised to direct most of his firepower at the frontrunner, Rudy Giuliani. In particular, he's going to highlight Rudy's heresy on family values issues by lobbing the ultimate insult at him, comparing him to Hillary:

"We’re not going to beat Hillary Clinton by acting like Hillary Clinton."

This drew a scorching response from the Rudy camp, in a statement sent to Jonathan Martin:

"Mitt Romney's transparent pandering to anyone and everyone who will listen to him is clearly not going to end any time soon. Mitt's positions of the day and personal attacks scream of desperation from a candidate who has spent millions upon millions of his own money only to find Republican voters want something he cannot offer -- true leadership."

Meanwhile, Martin says, in his speech before the group today McCain plans to draw attention to both Rudy's current pro-choice views, and Romney's past ones, by highlighting his consistency on the issue. He'll say:

“I have been pro-life my entire public career. I believe I am the only major candidate in either party who can make that claim...You need only examine my public record to know that I won’t ever change my position to fit the politics of the day."

The main event really comes tomorrow, when Rudy goes before the group. We'll bring you that when it happens. Our guess: Rudy will blame his divorces on 9/11.

A new SurveyUSA poll of Ohio shows Hillary Clinton generally doing well against the Republicans, but also that a race against either Rudy Giuliani or John McCain could be very close:

Clinton (D) 47%, Giuliani (R) 45%
Clinton (D) 49%, Thompson (R) 43%
Clinton (D) 50%, Romney (R) 41%
Clinton (D) 53%, Huckabee (R) 37%
Clinton (D) 46%, McCain (R) 46%
Clinton (D) 52%, Paul (R) 35%
Gore (D) 49%, Giuliani (R) 45%

Roll Call reports that Democrats are lining up another Iraq veteran to challenge freshman Rep. Peter Roskam (R-IL) — Colonel Jill Morgenthaler, a deputy chief of staff for public safety to Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich. Morgenthaler has yet to make her candidacy official, but reports say that she will likely make the bid.

Democrats hope that they can put Roskam on the defensive in this Democratic-trending district, but it remains to be seen whether Morgenthaler has the right profile to inspire local activists. She was at the center of the Abu Ghraib prison scandal as an army spokeswoman, and a Web journal that she had during her time in Iraq features a good deal of criticism of the media for what she perceived as negative coverage of the war.

One such nugget from her journal: "As people get upset about Abu Ghraib, one thing that should never be forgotten: these are men who have murdered Americans and would continue to murder Americans if given the opportunity."

A new poll of North Carolina by the Civitas Institute, a statewide conservative think thank, shows Hillary Clinton leading in the state's Democratic primary, while the Republican race is a close call between Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson:

Democrats:
Clinton 31%
Edwards 18%
Obama 18%

Republicans:
Giuliani 21%
Thompson 19%
Romney 16%
McCain 9%

Since the group's last poll in September, this represents an 11-point jump for Hillary among Democrats, and a six-point decline for Fred Thompson on the Republican side.

John Edwards has picked up the endorsement of another SEIU local, this time in Massachusetts. This is on top of the support of SEIU locals in Iowa — perhaps the biggest prize of the primary season — plus California, Washington, Michigan, Idaho, Montana, Minnesota, Ohio, West Virginia and Oregon.

Although Edwards failed to win the national SEIU's backing, he has far outpaced the competition in winning the state chapters. His closest competitor so far is Barack Obama, who only has the Illinois, Indiana and Missouri-Kansas locals.

Mitt Romney has picked up yet another high-profile Christian conservative in his quest to unite the Christian right behind himself and against Rudy Giuliani. The latest name is Don Wilton, senior pastor of the First Baptist megachurch in Spartanburg, South Carolina, and also a former president of the South Carolina Baptist Convention.

"His values are my values — protecting the sanctity of human life, defending marriage and strengthening the family. We need someone in Washington who will stand up for traditional families and Governor Romney is that person," said Wilton, in remarks obtained by David Brody. "While we may not agree on theology, Governor Romney and I agree that this election is about our country heading in the right direction. Governor Romney is the best candidate to stand for conservative values in Washington."

Barack Obama's campaign has just sent us a statement condemning the Senate FISA bill granting retroactive immunity to the telecoms:

“I have consistently opposed this Administration's efforts to use debates about our national security to expand its own power, whether that was on the Iraq war, or on its power grab to curb our civil liberties through domestic surveillance programs. It is time to restore oversight and accountability in the FISA program, and this proposal -- with an unprecedented grant of retroactive immunity -- is not the place to start.”

Earlier today Chris Dodd said he'd put a hold on the bill, raising questions about where the other Senator-candidates would come down on this. We now have Obama's answer -- against. No statement yet from Hillary on this.

The Hillary and Obama campaigns are going at it again today -- this time over the question of whether Hillary has a shot at cutting into the Republican women's vote.

Earlier today Hillary pollster Mark Penn was quoted by Ben Smith saying that she could win 24% of GOP women. Now Obama pollster Joel Benenson is out with a memo refuting this claim. Key quote:

Penn’s assertion is entirely baseless and refuted by a number of public polls. Moreover, these polls also indicate sizable defection among Democratic women should Sen. Clinton be the nominee.

Interestingly, the Republican National Committee is now circulating Obama's memo among reporters via email as a way to make the case against Hillary as a general election candidate. Full memo after the jump.

Late Update: Penn explains his view of the women's vote in some more detail right here.

Read more »

Fred Thompson didn't pull any punches against Rudy Giuliani today, in response to a question about illegal immigration during a Georgia campaign stop.

"I voted to do away with sanctuary cities in 1996," he said of his time in the Senate. "At about that same time, Mayor Giuliani was supporting the concept of sanctuary cities."

As for Romney, Thompson essentially called him a Johnny-come-lately on the issue: "Governor Romney certainly didn’t say anything against sanctuary cities until recently."

Mitt Romney pulled off an interesting bit of U.N.-bashing today, calling upon the United States to withdraw from a United Nations council that the United States isn't a part of to begin with.

"The United Nations has been an extraordinary failure of late," Romney said during a South Carolina campaign stop. "We should withdraw from the United Nations Human Rights Council."

There's one problem: The United States already boycotts the Human Rights Council, and has not sought a seat on it. This caused an aide to clarify the remarks by saying what Romney really meant is that the U.S. should stop any possible financial support for the council.

Romney also said he would support an alternative to the United Nations, an all-new "coalition of the free nations of the world and bring those nations together so that we can act together."

"We should develop some of our own — if you will — forums and alliances or groups that have the ability to actually watch out for the world and do what's right," Romney said.

Looks like Senator Pat Leahy, the chair of the judiciary committee, is adding his voice to the growing clamor of criticism of the deal that the intel committee has reached to include telecom immunity in the Senate FISA renewal bill.

Leahy has just come out and sharply criticized the reported deal, saying that it's a sign that the Senate is "about to cave."

Leahy, who hasn't seen the actual legislation, was reacting to reports this morning saying that the intel committee has reached a deal with the White House to provide retroactive immunity to the telecom companies for their role in warrantless wiretapping undertaken by the Bush administration after 9/11.

Leahy's criticism -- and Chris Dodd's promise today that he will put a hold on the bill -- signal that any legislation containing immunity for the telecoms is all but certain to hit major road bumps on the way to the Senate floor. That's because the bill has to clear Leahy's committee on the way to passage. It's getting interesting.

Hillary Clinton's campaign is already offering up a piece of spin they might use against Rudy Giuliani in a general election: They've beat him once before, they say, when he dropped out of the 2000 Senate race in New York.

"We started in New York about seven or eight behind," said lead strategist Mark Penn, in an interview with Ben Smith. "When he dropped out we were seven or eight ahead."

Giuliani had indeed started out way ahead, but his support began to fall due to a series of scandals such as the Patrick Dorismond case and Giuliani's messy public divorce. Hillary was able to take a lead in the polls, with the momentum clearly going her way, based on the strong support of women voters. Rudy dropped out, citing his recent prostate cancer diagnosis.

In a sign that he is probably not running again, former Congressman Charles Taylor (R-NC) has formally forgiven $1.5 million in debt that his campaign committee owed to himself, and is seeking to close the committee entirely.

Taylor has not definitely said that he's not running again, leaving other Republicans in the district hanging, but it's hard to see him entering the race after making a legal move like this.

Taylor was defeated for re-election last year by conservative Democrat Heath Shuler.

Meanwhile, North Carolina Democrats have had their own recruitment failure recently, with state Rep. Grier Martin declaring that he will not challenge Senator Elizabeth Dole.

Senator Chris Dodd plans to put a hold on the Senate FISA renewal bill because it reportedly grants retroactive immunity to telephone companies for any role they played in the Bush administration's warrantless eavesdropping program, Election Central has learned.

Dodd will send a letter to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid this afternoon informing him of his decision. Dodd also plans to put up a page today at his campaign Web site where opponents of the immunity provision can register their opposition.

“Later today Senator Dodd will be sending a letter to Majority Leader Reid informing him that he plans to put a ‘hold’ on a bill that would provide for retroactive amnesty for telecom giants that were complicit in the Bush Administration’s assault on the United States Constitution," Dodd spokesman Hari Sevugan told Election Central. "Senator Dodd said that he would do what he could do to stop this bill, and with this announcement he has again shown that he delivers results.”

By doing this, Dodd can effectively hold up the telecom immunity bill, because bills are supposed to have unanimous consent in the Senate before going forward. One Senator can make it very difficult to bring a bill to the floor by objecting to allowing it to go to a vote.

Dodd's planned action comes amid reports that the Senate Intelligence Committee has reached a deal with the White House on the legislation that would give telephone carriers legal immunity for whatever role they played in the National Security Agency’s domestic eavesdropping program, which was approved by President Bush after 9/11. The White House and the phone companies have been lobbying aggressively for immunity, and the announcement of the immunity deal today dismayed many opponents.

The bill is getting marked up by the Senate Intelligence Committee this afternoon.

Dodd, who has aggressively courted the liberal blogosphere as part of his Presidential run, was being loudly appealed to by top liberal bloggers today to put a hold on the bill. Dodd has for some time now spoken out against the immunity provision but had stopped short of saying that he would exert his power as a Senator to hold up the legislation.

Now, however, he is going to do just that.

More soon.

Late Update: Dodd's new web page petition on this is now live.

It's over: The House just voted on the SCHIP bill moments ago, and failed to override President Bush's veto.

The vote was 273-156, falling short of the two-thirds vote needed to overturn Bush's veto.

Incredibly, despite polls showing strong majority support for a veto override, and an aggressive ad campaign targeting Republicans on SCHIP, the GOP was remarkably successful in holding the line and sustaining Bush's veto. Only forty-four Republicans voted for the bill -- almost exactly the same as last time, save for GOP Rep. Pete King, a bill supporter who was absent this time. One-hundred and fifty-four GOPers voted against it.

The roll call is here. More soon.

Now this is a very interesting number buried in the new Gallup poll released today:

All in all, do you think the situation in Iraq is -- getting better for the United States, staying about the same, or getting worse for the United States?

Republicans:

Better: 34%
About the same: 37%
Worse: 27%

Only a third of Republicans think things are getting better over there. Meanwhile, an astonishing 64% of Republicans think things aren't getting better or are getting worse; and more than a quarter of GOPers think things are deteriorating. Keep in mind that the GOP message for months now has been that things are getting better.

What makes these numbers even more intriguing is the fact that most polls show solid majorities of Republicans want the troops to remain in Iraq -- even though we now see that only a slim minority think things are trending towards a good outcome there. Go figure.

Mitt Romney's push to consolidate social-conservative support around himself and against Rudy Giuliani continues. The latest pitch comes from longtime pro-life activist James Bopp, Jr., who has been circulating an e-mail this week in which he argues that conservatives have to rally behind a single candidate — Romney — in order to stop Giuliani's nomination.

"While several of the other candidates are certainly fine social conservatives, none has established his viability as a serious presidential contender," Bopp writes. "Only Mitt Romney has the resources to compete with Rudy Giuliani for the nomination."

Furthermore, Bopp says that time is running out, with only about 100 days between now and February 5 — so conservatives need to act, and act quickly.

"So it does come down to two things: (1) the viability of the candidate, which only Mitt Romney has demonstrated among the socially conservative candidates, and (2) whether social conservatives will have the courage to rally around the only viable social conservative alternative to Rudy Giuliani," Bopp writes. "A divided field means that Giuliani is likely to win the nomination. This is our choice to make, and we don't have long to make it."

The Des Moines Register's David Yepsen has a new column today, arguing that we shouldn't be so quick to count out John Edwards. Key excerpt:

He spends more time in Iowa than his rivals. (His wife jokes that if someone asked the couple for directions in Iowa, they could provide them.)

While Obama and Clinton have only recently discovered the fact that 49 percent of Iowa's Democratic caucus-goers live in rural and small-town Iowa, Edwards has been mining those tiny lodes for years.

For example, his schedule for Wednesday called for him to spend the day in far-northwest Iowa, where Democrats are ordinarily found only on endangered-species lists. (I know Democrats running for governor who don't make it to Rock Rapids.) Yet Edwards was to campaign there, and end his day on a hog farm near Cylinder, population 110.

We've just obtained an advance copy of a campaign memo drawn up by Edwards' pollsters in which the most extensive case yet is made for his electability in a general election.

The memo crunches a bunch of numbers and argues that he's better positioned than either Hillary or Obama to win in November of 2008:

Nationwide general election polling shows John Edwards is the Democrat with the best chance of defeating the Republican candidate in the 2008 general election for President. Edwards is the only Democrat with a significant lead in a head-to-head match-up against Republican frontrunner Giuliani. Against the other three major Republican candidates, Edwards’ average margin of victory is identical to or better than that of Barack Obama, and significantly higher than Hillary Clinton’s average margin.

Edwards also outperforms the other Democratic candidates in match-ups with Republican candidates in key battleground states including Iowa, Missouri, and Ohio. Further, unlike other Democrats who must “run the table” in states where Democrats have been competitive in recent elections, Edwards brings new states into play. This provides alternate scenarios – and a margin for error – when it comes to amassing 270 electoral votes.

More excerpts after the jump. Dig in.

Late Update: The full memo, with lots of charts and numbers, is right here in our TPM Document Collection.

Read more »

A new poll from Republican firm Strategic Vision shows Hillary Clinton with a modest lead in Iowa, while Mitt Romney has a similar level of support against a much more divided opposition. Note that the poll corroborates the recent surge that Mike Huckabee has been enjoying in other Iowa surveys:

Democrats:
Clinton 28%
Obama 23%
Edwards 20%
Richardson 9%
Biden 6%

Republicans:
Romney 27%
Giuliani 13%
Huckabee 12%
Thompson 10%
McCain 5%

Could Mitt Romney be trying to contrast his personal life with that of certain opponents? Romney has a new ad scheduled to begin running tomorrow in Iowa, highlighting his wholesome family life and featuring his wife Ann:

"Mitt says there's no work more important than what goes on within the four walls of the American home," says Ann. "And that's the way it was in our home."

New polling from SurveyUSA shows the Republicans in good shape to hold on to Kansas next year, a state that has not voted Democratic for president since 1964:

Giuliani (R) 54%, Clinton (D) 37%
Thompson (R) 53%, Clinton (D) 40%
Romney (R) 51%, Clinton (D) 39%
Huckabee (R) 50%, Clinton (D) 41%
McCain (R) 60%, Clinton (D) 34%
Paul (R) 44%, Clinton (D) 42%
Giuliani (R) 54%, Gore (D) 37%

Note that Hillary Clinton is even trailing Ron Paul in this state.

Barack Obama, on Jay Leno's show last night, had this to say about Hillary's inevitability:

"Hillary is not the first politician in Washington to declare 'Mission Accomplished' a little too soon."

The question, of course, is whether Hillary has ever actually said that she's won the race, whatever efforts to create the impression of inevitability Camp Hillary is or isn't making. Either way, the Obama campaign is clearly proud of the quote, and indeed sent it out in a fundraising email this morning.

Meanwhile, Ben Smith has some fun extending the analogy between proclamations of Hillary's inevitability and Bush's declaration that the war was over. Obama's full email touting the quote is after the jump.

Read more »

The lower tier of Republican candidates is reportedly about to shrink a little bit — Sam Brownback is expected to drop out of the race tomorrow.

Brownback's campaign had never really caught fire, with him raising only $4 million and coming in third at the Iowa Straw Poll behind Mike Huckabee, a rival for the social conservative vote.

So where will Brownback's support, such as it was, end up going? That's a good question. On the one hand, Romney's campaign has been trying to consolidate the Christian right into a unified anybody-but-Rudy campaign. On the other hand, Brownback's camp had been bashing Romney to no end, taking every opportunity to call him a phony.

CNN does the digging and finds that Comedy Central star Stephen Colbert's bid to appear on both the Democratic and Republican presidential primary ballots in his native state of South Carolina — reminiscent of the satirical campaigns run by the late Pat Paulsen — may be trickier than he first envisioned.

The state Democratic Party's Executive Committee, who will vote on approving Colbert's appearance on the ballot, has rules that state that a candidate must be "actively campaigning" for the Democratic primary. That could complicate matters for Colbert, since he would be "campaigning" in both parties' primaries.

The state GOP's rules are more relaxed — candidates do not require executive committee approval and the party would not block a cross-over bid. However, Colbert would have to pay the state GOP $35,000 in order to appear on their ballot, since state parties in South Carolina reimburse the state government for the costs of holding the presidential primary.

Colbert has until the end of the month to file his nominating papers with both parties.

John McCain may have hit upon a fun way to combat the idea that he's too old at 71 — he's bringing his mother Roberta McCain, a healthy 95-year old, out on the campaign trail.

"It's a thrill for me to be invited to tag along," said the elder McCain to a South Carolina retirement community, before her son gave a speech about the problems facing Social Security and Medicare.

McCain has previously joked about bringing his mother along in order to demonstrate his good genes. And it turns out that somebody — whether it was himself, his mother, another family member, or a staffer — realized it might actually be a pretty good idea.

GOP sources are telling Roll Call that former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL) will resign his seat in Congress effective later this year, triggering a special election to succeed him.

The exact date of Hastert's departure remains unknown, as a retirement announcement that he was expected to delivery today has been postponed.

Depending on Hastert's timeline, Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich (D) could align the special election with the state's February 5th presidential primary. If that were the case, and if Barack Obama were still competitive in the presidential race by that date, some Democrats hope that having his presence on the ballot could boost the turnout of Democratic voters in the special election to replace Hastert.

Governor Deval Patrick (D-MA), who served as assistant attorney general for civil rights during Bill Clinton's administration, is now supporting Barack Obama for president over Hillary Clinton.

The full benefits of Patrick's endorsement will depend on how many of his volunteers — who helped him immensely in his dark-horse candidacy last year — he will be able to recruit for volunteer work on Obama's behalf in New Hampshire.

In 2006, Patrick became only the second African-American to be elected governor of a state. The first such man, former Virginia Governor Doug Wilder, is also supporting Obama.

The GOP maneuver that succeeded in forcing Dems to postpone a vote on the FISA bill until next week may be even trickier than it first appeared.

GOP Rep. Eric Cantor claimed that he proposed his amendment to the bill in order to make sure that it didn't "prohibit the intelligence community from conducting surveillance needed to prevent Osama Bin Laden, Al Qaeda, or any other foreign terrorist organization…from attacking the United States or any United States person.” This language is legislatively meaningless, but it was effective because it was to be introduced via a procedural method that would have effectively killed the bill if it had gone to a vote.

But it turns out that the FISA legislation may already accomplish what Cantor said he wanted to accomplish with his amendment -- that is, it has provisions in it that allow the intelligence community to do whatever surveillance they need in the event of an imminent terror attack. Here's what Dem Rep. Jerrold Nadler had to say in his recent statement announcing his backing of the bill:

It also includes emergency provisions, including the ability to get a warrant after the fact, to ensure that the government will never have to stop listening to a suspected terrorist plotting an attack.

We don't have time to dig into the legislation right now. But if Nadler's description of the bill is accurate, it would appear to make it very obvious that Cantor's amendment was simply about scuttling the bill and nothing else.

Late Update: Dem House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer has just put out a statement reiterating this point, accusing the GOP of pushing an amendment that is "proposing language already provided in the bill."

And the Associated Press is equally unequivocal, saying that the bill "allows the unfettered surveillance of such groups."

Just to clarify: It's the procedural method by which this amendment was to be introduced -- not the language in the amendment -- that would have effectively killed the bill by forcing it back to committee. That was the sole purpose behind it, as the above shows.

Looks like the GOP parlimentary maneuver worked: According to House Dem leadership aides, the leadership has postponed the vote on the FISA bill until next week.

As noted below, GOP Rep. Eric Cantor came up with a clever way of throwing a wrench into the FISA bill, which was scheduled to be voted on today and which is opposed by Republicans.

He threatened this afternoon to submit an amendment that would have mandated that nothing in the bill "shall be construed to prohibit the intelligence community from conducting surveillance needed to prevent Osama Bin Laden, Al Qaeda, or any other foreign terrorist organization…from attacking the United States or any United States person."

Though this language has no real legislative meaning, it nonetheless was effective in forcing Dems to yank the bill. That's because he introduced this in such a way that would have procedurally forced the bill to go back to committee and delayed it for an untold amount of time.

That left House Dem leaders scrambling today to figure out how to respond. And so, instead of letting this measure effectively scuttle the legislation, they decided to postpone the vote until next week in order to regroup and figure out how to proceed. "This legislative maneuvering by Republicans was a cynical attempt by Republicans to kill the bill," a senior House Dem aide griped to Election Central.

As I predicted, House Republicans are already spinning this yanking of the bill as proof that Dems don't want to protect America -- even though the Dems' real objection was to the fact that the procedural measure would basically have killed the legislation.

As GOP Rep. Cantor, the author of this maneuver, crowed on his web site: "They are so desperately against allowing our intelligence agencies to fight OBL and AQ, that they pulled the entire bill to prevent a vote."

Late Update: It looks like the GOP maneuver may have been even trickier than it first appeared.

Late Late Update: Dem House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer has just put out the following statement:

“Once again, House Republicans have chosen to engage in politics rather than substantively address the challenges that face the American people.

“Once again, they have offered an amendment that, if passed, would have substantially delayed this important legislation – which is designed to protect the American people – by proposing language already provided in the bill.

“We have every intention of completing consideration of this critical legislation and fulfilling our twin objectives – protecting the American people and protecting their civil liberties.”

Yesterday we noted that Barack Obama had sent out a Web ad to supporters that made an unusually direct and even plaintive plea for contributions so he could "close the gap" with Hillary.

Something must be working about this approach, as Ben Smith notes. This plea, the Obama campaign claims, has already earned him $1.2 million in new contributions.

Today the House of Representatives is scheduled to vote on its FISA legislation. Members have been speaking on the floor throughout the day, and the vote was supposed to happen around now.

But it looks as if Republicans, who oppose the current FISA measure, may have come up with a way of trying to scuttle the bill.

GOP Rep. Eric Cantor has just revealed on his Web site that he's planning on introducing the following add-on measure to the bill later today:

Today, we will be offering an amendment to the legislation to clarify that nothing in the bill "shall be construed to prohibit the intelligence community from conducting surveillance needed to prevent Osama Bin Laden, Al Qaeda, or any other foreign terrorist organization…from attacking the United States or any United States person."

Cantor is presenting this as an effort to determine whether Dems really want to protect America or not. "Let’s put all Members of Congress on the record," he writes in a post accompaning the amendment. "Which do they care more about, pleasing their MoveOn.org liberal base or making sure America is safe and secure?"

But as you can see, this measure, with its incredibly broad language, would appear to be legally meaningless. It effectively says that the intelligence community is free to do whatever surveillance it wants, provided it can be justified as needed to prevent a terror attack in some fashion or other. It doesn't appear to be serious legislative language, just a procedural maneuver designed to throw a wrench into the works.

The word from House Dem aides is that Cantor intends to introduce this as part of a motion to recommit "promptly," rather than "forthwith." Stripping away the mumbo-jumbo, our best understanding of this so far is that it would send the bill back to committee, rather than out on to the floor for a vote. This would bottle up the bill and delay the process an untold amount of time.

Dems are likely to object to the prospect of this delay -- and not the language itself, as it has no legal meaning -- though Republicans clearly plan to spin any Dem objection to this as Dems not wanting to protect America.

It's unclear as yet how the House Dem leadership will respond. Cantor says on his blog that "House Democrats are holding the FISA bill off the floor, scrambling to figure out how to respond." House Dem aides say no decision has been made by leadership whether to yank the bill in response or whether to pursue another course.

More soon.

During a house party in New Hampshire over the weekend, Mike Huckabee was asked if his Christian values would prevent him from supporting funding for safe-sex programs. Huckabee then replied that it would be more important to ask people to simply not engage in reckless behavior.

"The best thing to do is to encourage people to make good choices," Huckabee said. "For example, if we were really serious about stopping a problem, whether it's drunk driving, we don't say, 'Okay, don't drive as drunk,' do we?"

Huckabee offered another example: "We don't say that a little domestic violence is okay, just cut it down a little, just don't hit quite as hard. We say it's wrong."

This is not the first time that Huckabee has expressed skepticism about condoms, having previously voiced his concerns about condom distribution in Africa creating a false sense of security.

(Via The Huffington Post)

New polling from Rasmussen shows Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney leading their respective caucuses in Iowa, though the leads are not overwhelming and the fields there are still seemingly in flux — and a dark horse possibly creeping up with Republicans.

On the Democratic side, Hillary has 33%, with John Edwards and Barack Obama statistically tied for second, with Edwards at 22%, Obama 21%, and Bill Richardson far behind with 9%.

Among Republicans, Mitt Romney has 25%. In second place, Fred Thompson is statistically tied with Mike Huckabee for second, with Thompson at 19% and Huckabee with 18%. Rudy Giuliani is in fourth place with 13%, and John McCain in fifth at 6%.

A new poll finds that Dems have a very strong wind at their backs as they head into tomorrow's House vote to override President Bush's veto of the SCHIP expansion bill.

The new CNN survey finds that a strong majority (61%) want the House to override Bush's veto, while barely a third (35%) do not. Key number: Forty-three percent of conservatives back the override, too.

One other key fact: The poll was taken Oct.12-14, when the winger campaign against the program was in full swing. Judging by these numbers, those efforts have failed pretty miserably.

"Every family has a black sheep."

— Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton, making a tongue-in-cheek reference to Vice President Cheney in reaction to the news that Obama and Cheney are distant relatives through an ancestor eight generations back.

As Spencer Ackerman just reported over at TPMmuckraker, Michael Mukasey just compared U.S. torture to the Holocaust at his confirmation hearing a few moments ago.

In light of this, we thought it would be interesting to recall another similar episode. Remember when Dem Senator Dick Durbin compared American torture to the Soviet gulags and to Nazi activities back in 2005? At the time, he said:

"If I read this to you and did not tell you that it was an FBI agent describing what Americans had done to prisoners in their control, you would most certainly believe this must have been done by Nazis, Soviets in their gulags, or some mad regime -- Pol Pot or others -- that had no concern for human beings. Sadly, that is not the case. This was the action of Americans in the treatment of their prisoners."

An enormous firestorm ensued, with Republican after Republican denouncing him. And Durbin was forced to deliver a tearful apology on the Senate floor. What will happen this time?

Seems worth recalling.

The DCCC has posted its fundraising numbers for the third quarter of 2007. In the period of July through September, the committee raised $16 million, has $28.3 million cash on hand, and finished the quarter with $2.9 million in debt.

The DCCC began the quarter with $24.5 million cash on hand at the end of June, and over $11.6 million in debt leftover from the 2006 election cycle. Thus a sizable amount of their $16 million haul this past quarter went towards retiring debt.

The NRCC hasn't released their quarterly tally yet, but they were last seen with less than $1.6 million cash on hand at the end of September.

This should make for some good theatrics: According to Political Wire, Karl Rove and Max Cleland, the triple amputee vet who was knocked out of the Senate partly by a nasty GOP ad campaign linking him to Osama Bin Laden, are set to debate one another at Pat Robertson's Regent University on Oct. 26. The topic: Whether American Democracy should be exported to the world.

They've apparently never met. It'll be interesting to see if Cleland asks the question directly of Rove that so many people have asked since his 2002 loss: "Sir, were you behind those ads tying a veteran who sacrificed three limbs for his country to a terrorist mass murder of thousands of Americans?" Stay tuned.

Here's another interesting factor in the Republicans' fundraising problems this cycle: More than one third of the Bush "Rangers" and "Pioneers" — the top levels of fundraisers — haven't donated to anybody as of yet.

The Washington Post reports that many of them are staying out due to an overall disaffection afflicting the party, some are still waiting for a definite nominee to emerge, and some are even looking at the Democrats.

"Some of the top Bush fundraisers have stepped aside from politics for other reasons," the paper reports. "There are those who had personal friendships with the Bush family that do not extend to other candidates, those who have tired of repeatedly soliciting friends for checks. Some are in prison or are dead."

Rudy Giuliani's efforts to reach out to social conservatives yielded another result today, with Rudy winning the endorsement of Texas Governor Rick Perry.

Interestingly, Perry said that Rudy was able to assuage his doubts about abortion and judicial nominations.

"The one that I wanted to hear him give me an answer and look me right in my eyes was that issue of who can I expect, what type of individual can I expect on the Supreme Court," Perry said. "He clearly said ... you can look for people like Scalia and Roberts and Alito. Let me tell you, I can live with that."

If Rudy ends up being nominated, he'll need a strong social conservative running mate in order to balance the ticket. With this endorsement, Perry may well be on the list.

A new round of polling from Quinnipiac gives some credence to Rudy Giuliani's claim that he can put certain Northeastern states in play where other Republicans wouldn't have a chance.

In Connecticut, he and Hillary Clinton are statistically tied at 44% for Hillary to 42% for Rudy. In New Jersey, Rudy and Hillary are tied at 44% apiece.

However, Rudy doesn't do much better than any other Republican might in New York. There, Hillary leads him 50%-36%.

The new Reuters/Zogby poll finds that Bush's approval rating has tumbled to 24% -- a full five points lower than his previous record low of 29% in Zogby polling. Our Official Election Central Calculator tells us that this means that less than one in four now approve of Bush's performance.

As if that weren't bad enough on its own, Atrios points out that this matches Richard Nixon's record low in Gallup polling.

The poll also finds that Congress' approval sits at an abysmal 11% and that both Rudy and Hillary have expanded their national leads.

In remarks made to the Norwegian press, Al Gore again insisted he has no interest in entering the 2008 presidential race — and that winning the Nobel Prize did not change his mind.

"I don't have plans to be a candidate again, so I don't really see it in that context at all," Gore said. "I'm involved in a different kind of campaign. It's a global campaign. It's a campaign to change the way people think about the climate crisis."

This isn't encouraging news for those still pining for another Gore candidacy, but the small crack in the door left open by Gore's language ("plans" do change, after all) will likely ensure that this won't be the last time he'll be asked about a potential run.

A new SurveyUSA poll shows Hillary Clinton running a close race against the top four Republicans:

Clinton (D) 47%, Giuliani (R) 45%
Thompson (R) 47%, Clinton (D) 45%
Clinton (D) 50%, Romney (R) 41%
Clinton (D) 49%, Huckabee (R) 39%
McCain (R) 49%, Clinton (D) 45%
Clinton (D) 51%, Paul (R) 35%
Gore (D) 46%, Giuliani (R) 45%

President Bush easily carried Kentucky in both 2000 and 2004, but the state also voted for Bill Clinton twice.

Iowa Republicans have bumped up their party's presidential caucuses to January 3rd, citing the pressure to maintain the state's relevance in an increasingly front-loaded primary election calendar. The state Democrats, however, have yet to follow suit, choosing instead to wait until other early nominating states have settled their schedules.

Meanwhile, New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner is maintaining that the state is "faced with the possibility" of bumping up its primary to December. The Iowa GOP set its caucus date based upon the assumption that the NH primary would be held on January 8th.

At a National Press Club breakfast yesterday, Congressman Tom Davis (R-VA) sounded very much like he's leaning against a campaign for the Senate, though no final decision will be made until after this November's legislative elections.

"There are other races; this isn't the only shot," said Davis. "You've got a very vulnerable guy sitting there in the other Senate seat right now who may or may not run in four years. And you know what? If you don't go to the Senate, so what?"

Davis had been hurt recently by the state GOP's decision to nominate their candidate by a convention, rather than a primary, not to mention the strong fundraising from former Democratic Governor Mark Warner. If Davis bows out, former Governor Jim Gilmore would be almost certain to win the Republican nomination, and then to lose against Warner.

Mitt Romney just scored a key Christian right endorsement in South Carolina, that of Bob Jones University president Bob Jones III.

Jones said the endorsement "is all about beating Hillary," and also preventing Rudy Giuliani from getting the nomination. "If it turns out to be Giuliani and Hillary, we've got two pro-choice candidates, and that would be a disaster," Jones said — a sign that a recent outreach effort by Romney supporter Mark DeMoss, made along those same two lines, might be working.

But don't go thinking that Jones' support means he's softened his view of Mormonism, which he considers to be a cult. Along with the endorsement, Jones also made such comments as:

• "What is the alternative, Hillary's lack of religion or an erroneous religion?"

• "As a Christian I am completely opposed to the doctrines of Mormonism. But I'm not voting for a preacher. I'm voting for a president. It boils down to who can best represent conservative American beliefs, not religious beliefs."

• "I'd be very concerned if he tried to make it appear in any of his statements that Mormonism is a Christian denomination of some sort. It isn't. There's a theological gulf that can't be bridged."

Update: For some context, Jones previously wrote in 2000, "The diminution of evangelistic enterprise to cults which call themselves Christian, including Catholicism and Mormonism, is frightening."

Democratic candidate Niki Tsongas, the widow of the late Senator Paul Tsongas, has won the special election today in Massachusetts to succeed former Congressman Marty Meehan — but not by much in this solidly Democratic district and state.

With 170 of 195 precincts reporting, Tsongas won by a mere 51%-46% margin, a possible sign of discontent with the Democratic Congress' performance and a testament to the campaign run by Republican Jim Ogonowski, whose brother was killed on 9/11.

But a word of caution to those who think this result means the Democratic Congress is losing on the issues: Ogonowski himself ran on a platform in favor of a timeline for leaving Iraq, and he may have stalled as a result of giving an equivocating answer on how he would vote on an SCHIP veto override. Tsongas, meanwhile, was heavily weakened by a divisive Democratic primary.

Rudy Giuliani attacked Barack Obama today for comparing discussions with foreign despots to the negotiations between the Reagan Administration and the Soviet Union. "I say this most respectfully, you're not Ronald Reagan," Rudy said.

So not Obama's campaign is hitting right back at Rudy — and bringing up the lobbying work that Rudy's law firm, Bracewell & Giuliani, has done for the Venezuelan government and Citgo.

"While Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton do not think we should engage in the type of strong diplomacy practiced by Ronald Reagan and John Kennedy, Obama does," said Obama spokesman Bill Burton. "And given the hefty fee that Hugo Chavez's oil company paid Rudy Giuliani's firm, he apparently thinks we shouldn't talk to Chavez, but it's fine to take his money."

This is kind of/sort of/not really interesting: Lynne Cheney says that in researching the family genealogy, she found out that Dick Cheney and Barack Obama are related, sharing an ancestor eight generations back. It's not much, but it's there.

And that's not all — there is also reason to believe that Vice President Cheney may have been Obama's father's brother's nephew's cousin's former roommate...

(Via Think Progress.)

The new CNN poll puts Hillary Clinton way ahead nationally, with an outright majority of 51% in a hypothetical nationwide Democratic primary. Barack Obama is way behind with 21%, followed by John Edwards at 15%.

On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani leads with 27%, followed by Fred Thompson at 19%, John McCain with 17%, and Mitt Romney at 13%.

In general election match-ups, a generic Democrat leads a generic Republican 52%-39%, but a trial heat between Hillary and Rudy is much closer, with Hillary at 49% and Rudy with 47%, mainly due to Giuliani vastly outperforming a generic Republican with moderate and independent voters.

As part of his efforts to win over GOP primary voters, Rudy Giuliani has repeatedly said that he governed New York city as Mayor by adhering to Republican and conservative principles.

Today, for instance, Rudy said that he "gave my blood" for the Republican Party in New York, adding: “I often say I was the first Republican mayor in New York in 25 years. And I was the first to remain one in 50 years.” At the recent GOP debate, Rudy pointed out that "George Will said I ran the most conservative government, from that point of view, in the last 40 or 50 years in the entire country."

But Rudy hasn't always viewed his Mayoralty in such terms. A rival campaign has unearthed video of Rudy during an interview with Charlie Rose in 1996 in which he claimed bluntly that "I'm really not" a Republican Mayor.

Rudy's answer came in response to a question from Rose, who asked why he wouldn't be attending the GOP convention in San Diego that year. Take a look:

Rudy said:

"Well, I'm a Republican mayor, but I"m really not. I'm the mayor of New York City. I ran as a Republican, I ran as a Liberal — which really confuses all kinds of people — and I ran as an Independent, as part of the Independent Party, which actually is now the party that's supporting Ross Perot. So I ran a fusion candidacy, like my predecessor Fiorello LaGuardia. So I'm not the most partisan of Republicans."

The Giuliani campaign didn't immediately answer a request for comment.

Late Update: Rudy's interview with Rose actually took place on August 12, 1996, not August 13.

Rep. Steve Pearce (R-NM) will run to succeed retiring Sen. Pete Domenici, according to the Albuquerque Journal, and he will make an e-mail announcement to supporters tomorrow announcing his run.

Pearce joins fellow Rep. Heather Wilson and businessman Spiro Vassilopoulos in the Republican primary. He will likely seek to play his strongly conservative credentials against Wilson, who has a more moderate profile.

GOP leaders were trying to get Pearce to commit to re-election, according to recent reports, wanting to avoid having both of their seats open up in this small state.

In case he's still thinking about a presidential run, a new Gallup poll finds that Al Gore's Nobel Prize did not give him any bump in the polls.

Earlier this month, before the Peace Prize was awarded, Gallup's national Democratic polling featuring Gore gave him 10% support. Post-Nobel, he is only at 14%. Furthermore, this statistically insignificant boost appears to have come almost entirely out of Barack Obama's hide, leaving Hillary Clinton unaffected as the national frontrunner — in fact, she went up a point, from 43% to 44%.

The deadline for Presidential campaigns to officially file their fundraising reports with the FEC passed at midnight last night. Earlier today, we looked at the fundraising reports of the Democratic field, tallying their funds raised for both the primary and the general election. However, the more germane figure is how well each campaign fared in money raised that can be spent on the primaries.

Let's take a look at how some of the top contenders from both parties fared in fundraising and cash-on-hand available for the primaries, and money spent from July through September.

First, the Democrats:

Hillary Clinton:

$21.9M raised
$35M cash-on-hand
$22.6M spent

Barack Obama:

$19.2M raised
$32M cash-on-hand
$21.5M spent

John Edwards:

$6.8M raised
$10M cash-on-hand
$8.3M spent

Bill Richardson:

$4.7M raised
$5.8M cash-on-hand (for primary & general)
$6.7M spent

And the Republicans:

Fred Thompson (since June 4):

$12.7M raised
$7.1M cash-on-hand
$5.7M spent

Rudy Giuliani:

$10.0M raised
$11.6M cash-on-hand
$13.3M spent

John McCain:

$5.0M raised
$1.6M cash-on-hand
$5.7M spent

Mitt Romney:

$9.5M raised + $8.5M personal loan
$9.2M cash-on-hand
$21.3M spent

This can't be the kind of story that John McCain wants out there. In a new GQ write-up on how the one-time frontrunner's campaign fell into the doldrums, a source says that McCain almost dropped out of the race back in early July.

"As [longtime McCain aide Mark] Salter later confided to a top adviser, McCain was ready to quit the campaign then and there," the article alleges. "Salter talked him down as well."

At that point, the campaign was taking a lot of heat over fundraising problems, Iraq-related gaffes, and the failure of the immigration bill.

Retired General James "Spider" Marks, who has just been named a new national security adviser to Mitt Romney's campaign, asserted in a 2005 interview that he would readily torture prisoners to save a soldier's life or stop a terror bomb, saying: "I'd stick a knife in somebody's thigh in a heartbeat."

In announcing the appointment of Marks, the Romney campaign put out a press release emphasizing his "more than three decades of experience in the intelligence field." But according to CNN, Marks also is a teacher of "interrogation." And as a CNN analyst, he elaborated on his views of torture on the network on November 8, 2005:

TOM FOREMAN (voice-over): If you could save the life of a soldier, rescue the hostage children; stop the next terrorist bomb by torturing a prisoner for information, would you do it?

JAMES "SPIDER" MARKS, MAJOR GENERAL, U.S. ARMY (RET.): I'd stick a knife in somebody's thigh in a heartbeat.

FOREMAN (on camera): Retired General "Spider" Marks, a CNN consultant, worked for U.S. Army Intelligence, teaching interrogation.

MARKS: The kinds of enemies we're fighting have no sense of right or wrong. They will go to any depths to achieve their ends.

FOREMAN: Do we have to go with them?

MARKS: We don't need to go with them. We need to preclude them from going there. And that might include some use of torture in order to prevent it.

FOREMAN (voice-over): Polls have shown that more than 60 percent of Americans think torture can sometimes be justified. But here is the catch. Experts, including General Marks, are convinced with the vast majority of prisoners, it just doesn't work.

In addition to seeming to suggest that we should torture even though it doesn't work in the "vast majority" of cases, Marks also added this later in the same broadcast:

FOREMAN: ...So in your experience and in your view, torture as a policy should be against the law?

MARKS: True.

FOREMAN: And yet, we might still have to use it.

MARKS: True.

That would appear to be an explicit endorsement of illegal torture.

Contacted by Election Central, Romney spokesman Kevin Madden declined to comment on Marks' assertions or say whether Governor Romney agreed with them. Madden did, however, say that Romney opposes torture, though he also confirmed that Romney supports the use of "enhanced interrogation techniques." Madden declined to specify what techniques in particular Romney was referring to.

At the GOP debate in May, Romney surprised a lot of people -- and drew applause from his audience -- when he said: "Some people have said, we ought to close Guantanamo. My view is, we ought to double Guantanamo."

A new SurveyUSA poll in Alabama tests Hillary Clinton against some of the top and lower-tier Republican candidates, and even throws in a general election match-up for Al Gore as the Democratic nominee:

Giuliani (R) 52%, Clinton (D) 44%
Thompson (R) 51%, Clinton (D) 45%
Clinton (D) 48%, Romney (R) 46%
Clinton (D) 47%, Huckabee (R) 46%
McCain (R) 52%, Clinton (D) 43%
Clinton (D) 48%, Paul (R) 42%
Giuliani (R) 52%, Gore (D) 43%

This Deep South state has not voted for the Democratic nominee since 1976. While it should probably go Republican again, the Republican frontrunners seem to be leading Hillary by a lot less than they should be. Interestingly, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee trail Hillary, but this could simply be due to low name recognition.

A new SurveyUSA poll of California shows Hillary Clinton approaching super-majority status in that state's Democratic primary, with 57% support against Barack Obama at 20%, and John Edwards with 13%.

On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani still leads with a solid plurality of 39%, with the opposition divided: Fred Thompson gets 18%, Mitt Romney 14%, and John McCain 13%.

A dollar value can now be placed on businessman Norman Hsu's bundled donations to Hillary Clinton: $804,850, the amount that the Hillary campaign has refunded back to the 249 individual donors. That works out to be a mean average of $3,232.33 per person.

When it came out that Hsu was in fact a fugitive from justice, due to a fraud conviction in California, the various Democrats to whom he'd donated — including Barack Obama, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and more — all rushed to donate his personal contributions over to charity and to return the bundled amounts to the original donors.

With new fundraising reports showing that Hillary has a few million more than Barack Obama for the primary, the Illinois Senator has cut a new Web ad, emailed to supporters today, in which he makes an unusually direct appeal for more campaign funds to close the gap with Hillary. Take a look:

Obama says:

"The fact of the matter is, we are still running an uphill battle. We're running against candidates who take money from PACs. They take money from Washington lobbyists. So I hope that you make that extra in these last few weeks. If you do, then not only are we going to be able to get our message of change out to the country, but we're going to be able to sustain that all throughout the primary, and lay the foundation for winning back the White House."

The ad also contains an oddly intimate closeup of Obama's hands, as well as a closing shot of him plaintively saying, "bye bye." It's certainly a sign of the times that a candidate with an astonishing $36 million on hand can cast himself as the underdog.

Mitt Romney has a new ad running in New Hampshire, entitled "Not Fair," promoting his tax-cutting agenda:

"When I'm President, for middle class Americans, the new tax rate on your interest, dividends, and capital gains will be absolutely zero," Romney says. "Want tax cuts that will grow our economy? Change begins with us."

Muck-encrusted Rep. John Doolittle (R-CA) is in so much political trouble that GOP leaders are convinced he has no chance of winning reelection next year and are privately urging him to retire, according to Roll Call (sub. reqd.).

Doolittle, whose home was raided earlier this year by the Feds, barely survived reelection against Dem challenger Charlie Brown, who is targeting Doolittle again for 2008. Brown is trouncing Doolittle in polls and has more money stockpiled for the 2008 race than the embattled incumbent does.

According to the paper, House GOP leaders held off on urging Doolittle to drop his reelection plans, hoping that he'd voluntarily decide to retire over the summer. But when Doolittle pressed ahead with reelection efforts, GOP leaders -- worried about losing an otherwise safe seat -- privately sat down with him and told him the game's over. No word on what Doolittle will do yet.

Sam Brownback has a new initiative he's working on: An official government apology for slavery and segregation.

"They were federal policies," Brownback told the Boston Globe editorial board. "They were wrong. The only way for us to move forward ... is at the end of day acknowledging those, taking ownership for it, and asking for forgiveness."

Brownback said he is working with an as-yet-unnamed Democrat to craft a resolution. In an interesting commentary on just how contentious the Senate is these days, Brownback also said he expects a tough fight in getting such a non-binding resolution passed.

Mitt Romney entered the presidential race with a lot less name recognition than the likes of Rudy Giuliani and John McCain — so in order to get to the top, he's had to spend a lot of money, including much of his own. So despite out-raising the rest of the GOP field, Romney no longer leads the race in cash on hand.

Romney now has less cash on hand than Giuliani — $9.2 million to Rudy's $12 million — and has spent a stunning $52 million up through the third quarter compared to only $30 million spent by Rudy.

It's only 2007, but a Senate seat has already opened up for 2012. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX), who was easily re-elected last year for a third term, has announced that she won't seek a fourth term five years from now.

Hutchison could potentially leave earlier than that, as well, as she is considering a run for governor in 2010.

The deadline for Presidential candidates to officially file their third quarter fundraising reports with the Federal Election Commission passed at midnight. Here's a tally of the Democratic field for the period of July through September (except for Gravel, who has not filed his report yet):

Hillary Clinton:

$27.86M raised
$22.62M spent
$50.46M cash-on-hand

Barack Obama:

$21.34M raised
$21.52M spent
$36.09M cash-on-hand

John Edwards:

$7.16M raised
$8.27M spent
$12.40M cash-on-hand

Bill Richardson:

$5.35M raised
$6.67M spent
$5.82M cash-on-hand

Chris Dodd:

$1.52M raised
$4.03M spent
$3.87M cash-on-hand

Joe Biden:

$1.76M raised
$2.64M spent
$1.89M cash-on-hand

Dennis Kucinich:

$1.01M raised
$0.89M spent
$0.33M cash-on-hand

Late Update: Numbers for cash-on-hand and contributions for the primary elections (and not the general) can be found here.

Hmm, perhaps Mitt Romney can reach out to evangelicals after all, despite being a Mormon.

His latest endorsement comes from an unusual place, picking up the support of Robert R. Taylor, the dean of the college of arts and sciences at Bob Jones University, the famous/infamous fundamentalist Christian college.

Just for some context there, university president Bob Jones III wrote an open letter in 2000 that attacked both Catholicism and Mormonism as "cults which call themselves Christian."

The "Republican wing" war of words continues between Mitt Romney and John McCain.

The Romney campaign has a new release out, attacking John McCain for having been greeted in New Hampshire by Democratic Governor John Lynch, and thanking Lynch for his bipartisan governing style.

McCain was holding a campaign event with former New Hampshire Executive Councillor Peter Spaulding, a close friend of the governor.

"Only John McCain would criticize a fellow Republican one day and then campaign with a Democrat the next," said Jim Merrill, New Hampshire state director for the Romney campaign.

Check out the full text of the release after the jump.

Read more »

Former Governor Mark Warner (D-VA) is off to a strong start in fundraising for the open Senate race in Virginia, bringing in $1.1 million last quarter. The fun part: He'd only been a candidate since September 13, raising money for a mere 18 days in the quarter.

On the Republican side, the prospective candidates' fundraising isn't nearly as good. Congressman Tom Davis brought in only $218,844.84 last quarter, and barely broke even with $203,299.74 in expenditures. His total cash on hand comes to 1,049,449.51, about the same as Warner's but somewhat lackluster given his years-long head start in fundraising for federal races.

The more right-wing potential candidate for Virginia Republicans, former Governor Jim Gilmore, ended his presidential campaign in debt. His committee has only $18,203.11 on hand, with $147,048.45 currently owed in debts.

(Via MyDD)

Barack Obama today sharply criticized "triangulation" in politics -- and in response, the Hillary campaign accused him of going after the most popular man in the Democratic Party: Bill Clinton.

Obama made the comments at a campaign appearance today. Discussing his early opposition to the war, he said:

"We've had enough of ... triangulation and poll-driven politics," he said. "That's not what we need right now."

The AP reported that the reference to the dark art of triangulation is "a reference to Bill Clinton's Presidency." In response, Hillary spokesperson Phil Singer emailed over the following:

Senator Obama spent the last week abandoning the politics of hope and attacking Senator Clinton. He has begun this week by attacking her husband. The fact is that most Americans believe Bill Clinton was a good president who moved the country forward.

One could, of course, interpret Obama's line as criticism of Hillary, not Bill, for triangulating. Nonetheless, the tactic is indelibly associated with Bill's Presidency.

In his campaign's first offficial filings with the Federal Election Commission today, Fred Thompson reported raising $12.8 million from June 4th through September. During that period, his campaign spent $5.7 million and is left with $7.1 million cash on hand.

Rudy Giuliani's third quarter receipts, for the period of July through September, clock in at $11.6 million. However, Rudy still retains a cash on hand edge, with $16.6 million left in his war chest. Giuliani's campaign spent $13.3 million during the period, according to the report.

The Edwards campaign has just confirmed on the record what others have been reporting today -- that he has won the endorsements of the following SEIU state affiliates:

California (656,000 members)

Washington (103,000 members)

Michigan (70,000 members)

Idaho (400 members)

Montana (500 members)

Minnesota (28,000 members)

Ohio (22,000 members)

West Virginia (4,000 members)

Oregon (46,000 members)

That's a major boost for Edwards, deflating the earlier storyline (which debuted when the national SEIU decided not to endorse a candidate) that Edwards, the presumed frontrunner among labor, was failing to score on that front. At a time when much of the punditry is focused almost exclusively on polls and fundraising, this rollout of support allows him to claim a new burst of momentum.

Fred Thompson will take his effort to become the conservative favorite against Rudy Giuliani to a fitting venue: The Conservative Party of New York State, which feuded for years with Rudy.

"Some think the way to beat the Democrats in November is to be more like them. I could not disagree more," Thompson will say, according to prepared remarks.

"I believe that conservatives beat liberals only when we challenge their outdated positions, not embrace them," he will add. "This is not a time for philosophical flexibility, it is a time to stand up for what we believe in."

Thompson does not specifically mention Rudy in any of the excerpts leaked so far, but the message is clear. Rudy never ran as a Conservative under New York's fusion voting system, and was even the candidate of the now-defunct Liberal Party.

The Edwards campaign is being very tight-lipped today about the raft of new SEIU state affiliates that they have reportedly racked up.

But a source familiar with the endorsements tells me that Edwards is set to announce the support of new SEIU affiliates that total nearly 1,000,000 in new members. That's a substantial jolt, suggesting that Edwards' hard work in courting the service employees is paying off and giving Edwards a way of claiming a new burst of momentum.

The campaign says they'll be announcing something today at 6:30, at which point we'll know for sure which states comprise the nearly 1,000,000 members newly for Edwards. More later.

Legal sources are telling Newsweek that there not be an indictment of Rudy's man Bernie Kerik this month, after all.

"Kerik has agreed with prosecutors to extend the statute of limitations for investigating his 2000 tax return until Nov. 15, and he could agree to extend it further," the mag says, adding that Kerik's lawyer will meet with the Feds over next month. "The principal issue: does the evidence justify criminal tax charges, or could the case be resolved, like many other tax cases, with a civil settlement?"

Of course, the longer this drags out, the more likely it becomes that bad news will break when Rudy's campaign is in full swing. And lest this be forgotten, recall that this is the man Rudy recommended as his pick for chief of the Department of Homeland Security -- that is, as the man in charge of defending us from what Rudy calls the "Terrorists' War On Us."

"If I believed in polls, then five years ago I would have backed the war in Iraq like she did."

-- Barack Obama, quoted by The Hotline commenting on polls showing him trailing Hillary.

Larry Craig isn't giving up.

Craig's attorneys filed a notice today in Minnesota that they are appealing the decision by Hennepin County Judge Charles Porter to deny Craig's withdrawal of his guilty plea for disorderly conduct in a public men's room.

The short, four-page filing did not contain any argument for the appeal, but that should be forthcoming later.

At pretty much exactly the same time that the Edwards campaign wrapped up its conference call touting his Iowa SEIU endorsement, the Obama camp sent out a release trying to steal Edwards' labor thunder with a couple SEIU endorsements of its own.

He's picked up the support of the SEIU in Indiana and in his home state of Illinois -- that latter local being one of the ones that stopped the national SEIU from making an endorsement. The campaign's release is after the jump.

Read more »

There's been lots of debate of late about whether Hillary, who's come out against torture in general, is really opposed to specific special interrogation measures, such as "waterboarding," "cold room," and the like.

Now Hillary has just answered a torture question again on The View, and she appeared to move the ball forward at least somewhat:

She said:

I think it's really important for the United States to make it absolutely clear that as a matter of policy we do not condone or conduct torture...that gives us a lot of moral authority, which we have lost, unfortunately.

We also have to be smarter about how we interrogate. There's a lot of evidence that you don't get accurate, good information from extreme measures. In fact, you get it by developing some kind of system that can really get people to feel that they need to give you that information...For both the moral and values reason and because of the lack of effectiveness that a lot of these so-called techniques have. we need to be very clear that we do not conduct torture.

Again, she's not condemning specific techniques such as waterboarding by name or characterizing them as torture. So there may still be some wiggle room here, and this is unlikely to fully satisfy critics who are hoping that she'll rule out the use of all such techniques by name.

On the other hand, she does come out and specifically question the effectiveness of "extreme measures," which she didn't do in her last closely-scrutinized interview on this. So in that sense she seems to have moved the ball forward at least somewhat from that last statement.

The Edwards campaign just held a conference call to announce the endorsement of the SEIU's Iowa local, and added that endorsements from more locals will be on the way. "John has worked very, very hard to earn this endorsement," said campaign manager and former Congressman David Bonior, "and it is a big, big victory for the campaign."

The endorsement means that other SEIU locals that are backing Edwards can help out in Iowa, while locals supporting any other candidate are forbidden from participating in the Iowa campaign. Edwards had been unable to secure the national SEIU endorsement, which was blocked in part by the locals from Illinois and New York, but the Iowa local is really the next best thing.

Mitt Romney is amping up the argument that he -- not Rudy -- is the Republican who's truly electable. His campaign just blasted out the following just moments ago:

STRATEGY FOR A STRONGER AMERICA: THE THREE-LEGGED REPUBLICAN STOOL

"I believe that to win the White House that our candidate has to be somebody who can represent and speak for all three legs of the conservative stool or conservative coalition that Ronald Reagan put together -- social conservatives, economic conservatives and defense conservatives." -- Governor Romney

Of course, as Jonathan Martin points out, Rudy is presenting a three-legged stool of his own: National security conservatism, economic conservatism, and in place of social conservatism, Hillary-bashing, that is to say, Rudy's claim that only he can slay her.

So what Romney's doing with the above argument is to try to undercut not one, but two of Rudy's campaign rationales. First, Romney's trying to dilute the importance of national security issues as a primary driver of GOP Primary voters. And second, he's simultaneously undercutting Rudy's I'm-electable-against-Hillary claim by saying that only someone who meets all of these three conservative thresholds can assemble the coalition necessary to get elected President as a Republican.

Hillary Clinton has a new essay in Foreign Affairs, laying out her overall foreign policy vision and goals. Essentially, Hillary sets out to avoid a post-Bush pendulum effect — a switch from President Bush's brand of bellicose interventionism over to isolationism — and instead resurrect liberal internationalism in areas such as the War on Terror, Iran, North Korea, Africa and elsewhere, with a focus on humanitarianism, democracy and human rights. Key quote:

The Bush administration has presented the American people with a series of false choices: force versus diplomacy, unilateralism versus multilateralism, hard power versus soft. Seeing these choices as mutually exclusive reflects an ideologically blinkered vision of the world that denies the United States the tools and the flexibility it needs to lead and succeed. There is a time for force and a time for diplomacy; when properly deployed, the two can reinforce each other. U.S. foreign policy must be guided by a preference for multilateralism, with unilateralism as an option when absolutely necessary to protect our security or avert an avoidable tragedy.

"I was very proud of my association with Mitt Romney. And he not only threw me under his campaign bus, he backed up and ran over me again."

-- Larry Craig, complaining about Romney's criticism of his wide stance during an interview with NBC's Matt Lauer that's set to air tomorrow.

Big news out of Alaska: A new poll from Ivan Moore Research shows Democrat Ethan Berkowitz leading 18-term incumbent Don Young (R-AK) by a 51%-45.5% margin.

The poll also finds that a near-majority of Alaska voters have grown sour on the scandal-tainted Young, with almost 50% of likely voters having a negative feeling toward the incumbent, and 43% still feeling positive.

Berkowitz, the 2006 nominee for Lt. Governor in the state, is one of three Democrats in the race to take on Young, but the poll only tests his strength against Young. Another surprising finding from the poll: only roughly 15% of respondents did not recognize his name.

A Mason-Dixon poll released yesterday in Nevada shows Hillary Clinton way ahead in the Democratic caucus, but also losing the state in a general election.

Hillary leads the Dem field with 39%, followed by Barack obama at 21%, John Edwards with 9%, and Bill Richardson at 8%. On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani has 28%, Fred Thompson 23%, Mitt Romney 17%, and John McCain 9%.

In general election heats, Rudy beats Hillary 51%-44%, Thompson wins 50%-44%, and Romney leads 49%-43%.

Mitt Romney's campaign has now fired back at John McCain's recent attacks on the candidate. Romney spokeswoman Gail Gitcho released this response:

"Angry attacks from campaigns without any new ideas on how to bring change to Washington aren’t what voters are looking for. That’s why Governor Romney is making his case to Republican voters on the important issues of national security, economic security and building stronger American families.

"What sets Governor Romney apart from the other candidates is an optimistic vision and a record of accomplishment on the important issues Republicans care about. There are obvious differences with Senator McCain, notably his wrongheaded approach on immigration, his support of campaign finance reform that has stifled free speech and his joining Democrats to vote against the Bush tax cuts. We will talk about these differences in a substantive way, rather than resort to the flailing attacks the senator is currently engaging in as a result of being without any new ideas to save his campaign."

Congressman David Hobson (R-OH) has made his choice: He is not running for re-election.

Hobson made the announcement today, bringing to an end a Congressional career that has spanned nine terms, and making him the 12th House Republican to announce that he is leaving. Eleven of them, including Hobson, are retiring outright, while only Heather Wilson of New Mexico is seeking higher office.

By comparison, only two House Democrats are leaving — Mark Udall of Colorado and Tom Allen of Maine — and in their cases they are both running for Senate.

The suburban Columbus district voted 57% for President Bush in 2004, so the Republicans should be favored to retain the seat.

Late Update: There are in fact 12 House Republicans who are leaving their seats, not 13. Tom Davis of Virginia might announce for Senate, but that has not happened as of yet.