Poll: Romney And Hillary Way Ahead In Michigan
Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney are both enjoying huge leads in their respective primaries in Michigan, according to American Research Group:
Democrats:
Clinton 43%
Obama 21%
Edwards 14%
Richardson 5%Republicans:
Romney 39%
Giuliani 13%
Thompson 12%
McCain 9%
Gingrich 7%
Hillary's lead here is about on track with her national lead, and Romney's advantage comes from his family roots in the state — his father George was governor of Michigan in the 1960's.
Then again, at the rate things are going in Michigan — which is now trying to hold its primary on January 15 — the primary might not count for much if the national party committees take away all the delegates.
Advertisement
It's quite a dillema. Do what the Democratic Party demands and hold your primary after the nominee is chosen by the "special" states, or move your primary up and watch the Democratic Party take away all of your delegates. Either way you have no say in the process. Which is why I think Michigan is doing exactly the right thing.
September 5, 2007 7:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
ARG polls consistently trend high for Clinton.
The impact on Iowa polls could also apply to these Michigan numbers.
Bottom line: ARG has had a substantial effect on the Clinton trend estimate until recently. Still, the substantive effect is not trivial. Estimates including ARG put the trend at 26.2% for Clinton, 24.2% for Edwards, a Clinton lead of 2.0 points. But excluding ARG from the trends we get Clinton at 24.6% and Edwards at 25.9%, a 1.3 point Edwards lead. Of course both estimates say the race is close in Iowa, and perhaps we should stop there. But the consistent ARG overestimate of Clinton has influenced perceptions and estimates for this race.
September 5, 2007 8:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
These numbers mean little. Of COURSE the numbers are like this. It's about name recognition. Clinton obviously has the name recognition from Bill and Romney's dad covers this for him. It's silly to take much from this poll given how early it is and given the power of name recognition at this point.
September 5, 2007 8:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
"elrapierwit wrote on September 5, 2007 8:22 PM:
ARG polls consistently trend high for Clinton."
Very ineresting. I wonder what would happen if you excluded a poll that consistently ranked Hillary low?
September 5, 2007 10:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is great news for Romney. If he wins Michigan, the nomination is in the bag for him. And Michigan's leap forward solves his biggest liabilities. Read why here.
Also, the RNC is threatening to only cut half of the delegates.
September 5, 2007 11:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's unfortunate that some people (though very few Dems) won't vote for Hillary because she is a woman. But it's even more unfortunate that so many Democrats are supporting her JUST BECAUSE she is a woman, and just because she was married to Bill Clinton.
The only reason she's the front-runner is nepotism. If she weren't married to a popular former President, she wouldn't be on the presidential radar screen, let alone the front-runner.
Hillary's also a wet rag of a campaigner, a female Al Gore. Compared to Obama, who is a charismatic and riveting campaigner, she just has no appeal on the stump. And, unfairly, but no less true for that, her negatives are so high that the best she could hope to do in 2008 is to win a squeaker, and it's hard to see her even coming very close. Obama, in contrast, could sweep 60% of the vote--IF the Dems (I should say, if enough Democratic women) have the brains to nominate him!
And please let's not hear any more about her supposed "experience." This is totally bogus. She has far less than any other announced candidate, including Obama. Six years in the Senate and 8 as first lady just don't cut it. Obama has won far more campaigns, held elective office far longer, and has profound experience as a candidate and as an officeholder.
On paper, Hillary's the least qualified announced candidate for the nomination, and that's a fact.
September 6, 2007 9:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
After going thry 8 awful years of George Walker Bush its hard for me to believe that the American people would be so stupid to elect Obama when their is no way he can win the election in November.So here we go again,4 more years of another Republican.No health care,the war will go on in Iraq,and America will drift just like she has for the last 8 years,a ship without a rudder.Does anyone out their really have a brain? You may not like Hillary,but she is the only choice for the Democrats to take back the White House.She will find a way to get us out of Iraq,she will find a way to get the 48 million folks health care that have none now.She will not use the veto pen,"does anyone in America but me GET IT"
Its Hillary,or 444444444444444 more long years in the wilderness.America,please wake up!
December 22, 2007 5:27 AM | Reply | Permalink