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Poll: Hillary And Rudy Ahead In New Jersey
A new Quinnipiac poll in New Jersey finds Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani with huge leads in their primaries. Hillary leads the Democratic field with 46%, followed by Barack Obama at 15%. Among Republicans, Rudy Giuliani has 45% to Fred Thompson's 12%. The general election match-ups show that Rudy or John McCain could make it a close race in the Democratic state, but that Fred Thompson or Mitt Romney would lose in landslides:
Giuliani (R) 45%, Clinton (D) 44%
Giuliani (R) 49%, Obama (D) 40%
Giuliani (R) 50%, Edwards (D) 39%
Clinton (D) 46%, McCain (R) 41%
Obama (D) 44%, McCain (R) 41%
Edwards (D) 44%, McCain (R) 40%
Clinton (D) 48%, Thompson (R) 36%
Obama (D) 49%, Thompson (R) 34%
Edwards (D) 48%, Thompson (R) 34%
Clinton (D) 52%, Romney (R) 33%
Obama (D) 51%, Romney (R) 31%
Edwards (D) 51%, Romney (R) 30%
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This is really insane. Giuliani loses handily in the Southern states of Virginia and Tennessee and he wins in New Jersey?
September 26, 2007 10:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
NJ does this to us every election. Always looks like the Repub has a chance, than badda-bing, the Dem sails in.
September 26, 2007 10:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is really insane. Giuliani loses handily in the Southern states of Virginia and Tennessee and he wins in New Jersey?
It is insane, and that's because you can't possibly predict outcomes for an election 14 months away using polling data. Thats not what polls are designed to do.
It's a bit of a bummer Election Central Central has turned so heavily to this kind of meaningless Horse Race analysis.
September 26, 2007 10:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Its not so insane if you think about it. Giuliani is a New Yorker through and through, something that is not going to wear well in Southern and border states. Hillary may represent NY in the Senate but her demeanor is not that of a New Yorker. She's more midwestern in style.
We may be seeing the beginnings of Giuliani's baggage and more liberal social views of the recent past having a negative impact on his ability to get GOP voters in more conservative states excited about voting for him. Those views do him well in New Jersey, but not so much in Tennesee...
September 26, 2007 10:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Um, Jim J is right. Jersey threatened to go for Bush in 2004, and then easily went for Kerry (PA too I believe). Even with Rudy on the ballot, if Clinton picks a mid-westerner like Bayh like everyone suspects, then Giuliani will be spending too much time defending his base to be able to effectively storm NJ.
September 26, 2007 10:27 AM | Reply | Permalink