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Poll: GOP Senator Cornyn Ahead, But Possibly Weak
A new Research 2000 poll, commissioned by Daily Kos, shows Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) ahead of Democratic candidate Rick Noriega 51%-35%. On the surface this looks encouraging, in that the incumbent just barely breaks 50% support against an unknown opponent, and has an anemic re-elect number of 40%, with 35% wanting somebody else.
On the other hand, one has to wonder if Texas is a Republican counterpart to New Jersey, where the voters routinely dislike their politicians but nevertheless continue to re-elect Democratic incumbents. Even if Texas Republicans are unpopular, could they still win?
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Agreed 100%. Texas could possibly become somewhat competitive, but it would demand a lot of things to break Democrats' way.
Senate Rankings
September 27, 2007 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
As things stand, it will take a massive and costly effort to put Texas into play. From most likely to least likely, here are our top pick up chances:
1. New Hampshire
2. Colorado
3. Oregon
4. Virginia
5. Maine
6. Minnesota
7. Nebraska (if Kerrey runs)
8. North Carolina
9. New Mexico (if Richardson runs)
10. Alaska
11. Kentucky
12. Idaho
13. Tennessee
14. Oklahoma
15. Texas
September 27, 2007 5:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
1. Virginia
2. New Hampshire
3. Colorado
4. Minnesota
5. Maine
6. Oregon
7. Nebraska (assuming Kerrey v. Johanns)
8. North Carolina
9. Kentucky
10. Alaska
11. Texas
12. Tennessee
13. New Mexico
14. Idaho
15. Oklahoma
Assuming Ted Stevens retires/is indicted and Mark Begich gets in, Alaska would probably be number 7. Conversely, if Bob Kerrey passes (which is looking more likely than not), Nebraska drops down to number 10.
September 27, 2007 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rick Noriega has/had a chance to best Cornyn who even Repubs recognize is a Bushie with John Connally hair. Noriega is Latino, a veteran and a Texas legislator - all the right ingredients for Texas in 2020 at least and just maybe in 2008.
However, he has a formidable opponent in the Dem primary - a gringo San Antonio trial attorney named Mikal Watts who has personal pockets almost as deep as Mitt Romney's.
AND,worse, it recently surfaced he's one of the first Democrats to receive money from Bob Perry of Perry Homes of Houston. Perry's one of the biggest builders of suburban sprawl in the state. He is also the largest benefactor of Governor Rick Perry (no relation)("Guv Good Hair" Molly Ivins called him) AND the chief funder of the Swift Boat ads.
This is kinda like Rupert Murdoch throwing a fundraiser for Hillary, maybe
worse. Maybe Perry like Murdoch sense shifting winds and want to buy in rather than stew on the outside. Maybe it'll cost Noriega once way or the other. The urban landscape is definitely tilting Demo especially after 2006 when Dallas flipped D. The Valley, El Paso, and inner city Austin are solid D. But the 'burbs rule in Texas. The real play is there. 2006 pushed suburban Travis and suburban Hays to Democratic majorities.
Whether that will translate into vulnerability of Cornyn is questionable at this point, especially with those two hickeys on Noriega's neck.
September 27, 2007 8:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
It should be noted that in 2006 Rick "Supah Star" Perry (R) won the Governor's race with 39% of the vote. Even his home county voted against him. Of course there was dull D candidate Chris Bell, turned-out-to-be-real-dull independent Kinky Friedman, and former R, former D Carole Rylander to split the vote.
With a real D candidate and no other Nadars the result would have been different.
September 27, 2007 9:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wait, Bob Perry, the funder of the Swift Boat Vets gave to a Dem? That is shocking!!
Is Noriega a super-conservative Dem?
September 27, 2007 9:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why do you guys rank Tennessee so low?
It was so close last time, and I know the seat isn't open this time, but I would think it would be about as good as Texas/Alaska/Kentucky?
Another thing this confirms is the essentially selfishness of Richardson running a quixotic presidential campaign instead of an imminently winnable Senate campaign.
Draft Richardson...for Senate!
September 27, 2007 9:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Would Kos/netroots endorse Noriega if he was super-conservative?
September 27, 2007 9:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
The important thing about this is that the establishment Repub incumbents like McConnell and Cornyn will suck up all the money the party has because they're endangered. They'll let the "moderates" in Oregon, Minnesota and Maine go down the tubes like Linc Chafee.
September 27, 2007 9:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Noriega isn't a superconservative. He's an urban centrist. Bob Perry is a superconservative. It may just be a Houston money deal....if you want to be a playa, you gotta play with the big spenders. Watts will make an issue of it, but it most likely won't stick, because Yellow Dogs are like unions -- they don't roam the range in huge numbers anymore.
September 27, 2007 9:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pete Domenici may be in trouble. Here is a link to a new poll.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=da4d5db4-4d96-4318-9af1-da83f4798b17
It is still early days but this is a real shocker. Stunning to be more precise.
September 28, 2007 12:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
A hypothetical generic opponent beats a lot of incumbent that no concrete opponent can dislodge.
It's a good sign, though.
Note, Sen. Cornyn (R-TX) voted Nay on S-CHIP, as did 18 of 19 TX R's in the House (the 19th, Rep. Poe, did not vote). Sen. Hutchison (R-TX) supported S-CHIP.
September 28, 2007 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink