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Poll: Edwards Best Dem For Missouri — State Looks Good Overall
A new SurveyUSA poll in Missouri finds John Edwards to be the most electable of the top three Democrats in the key swing state of Missouri. In addition, the top three Democrats all generally fare well against three Republicans, with only one GOP win in the nine match-ups:
Giuliani (R) 48%, Clinton (D) 45%
Clinton (D) 48%, Thompson (R) 45%
Clinton (D) 51%, Romney (R) 40%
Obama (D) 46%, Giuliani (R) 44%
Obama (D) 48%, Thompson (R) 45%
Obama (D) 51%, Romney (R) 40%
Edwards (D) 47%, Giuliani (R) 42%
Edwards (D) 50%, Thompson (R) 40%
Edwards (D) 56%, Romney (R) 32%
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It's the message folks and the message the Edwards campaign has been hammering all year without explicitly saying so is: he's a real Democrat as opposed to Republican lite. It isn't the personalities involved and that's important to remember.
Clinton and Obama have both been steering a centrist course. These numbers from the heartland keep telling the same story which is that those folks want someone who is different from the Republicans instead of someone who blurs the distinctions between the two parties.
If you claim to want change and you claim you will fight the Republicans, the right wing and all the special interests of wealth and corporate power you need someone who is NOT like them, aka a Democrat: not a centrist.
The most important factor, IMHO, is that in terms of November 08 you need states like Missouri and Ohio and others like them that have just barely been in the Republican column. The states that have been blue in the past will remain so. It's got to be all about expanding our appeal vs getting just a bit more here and there to eek out a close one. Taking the states like the two I just mentioned means numerous others would be put into play and won in November---states we've lost the last two or three Presidential years. The kind of victory that kind of turnaround creates will be a landslide benefiting Democrats running for every office from local to Federal.
That is what we need to destroy Republican power to the point where it will take 10 years or more for them just to get back on their feet. That is time we will need so that we can undo the damage they have done since the mid 90's and put America back on course at home and abroad.
September 23, 2007 12:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Put this next to the Ohio poll of the other day, and a story starts to emerge. Same with the Kentucky and Alabama polls. Edwards is running ahead.
September 23, 2007 12:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
if we elect Edwards we will be playing into the Republican playbook because given Edwards' senate voting record he is the most unelectable of all the democratic candidates. We will get buried. Stop trusting these polls and elect anyone but Edwards.
September 23, 2007 1:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
These polls are all fine and good but the real problem for Edwards are the polls for the contest for the Democratic nomination. He trails in all the early states and even in Iowa which was supposed to jumpstart his campaign. Edwards needs to show more support within his own party or these general election polls are as meaningless as polling Tom Tancredo or Ron Paul against the Democratic frontrunners.
September 23, 2007 1:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
As I had said in the thread on the Ohio poll, it will be Clinton v. Edwards down the stretch (especially if he takes IA), with Clinton prevailing after Super-Duper Tuesday.
Edwards polls v. the Repubs look fine (overall, they definitely make him look more competitive than Obama), but his problem is how well he would do for the nomination v. Clinton. On Super-Duper Tuesday, when California, New York, NJ, etc, primaries take place, Clinton's win will be so big that the aura of 'inevitability' that will envelope her would easily carry her to the finish line. At least, that is how I see her path to the nomination. It is not as clear to me, using electoral vote calculus, how either Obama or Edwards would win the nomination without carrying virtually every small state...
September 23, 2007 3:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Democrats better wake up and start paying attention to Edwards. Hillary is not Bill and never will be Bill. She will be destroyed in the general. Edwards is the best shot, and that's from a Republican who will speak the truth. Just like Guiliani is the Dems worst nightmare . Edwards is the only Democrat who could mop the floor with the Republicans. He is liberal as hell, but he is the only Democrat who can best describe progressive ideals to middle America.
September 23, 2007 5:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
for that matter obama outpolls hillary there too...
September 23, 2007 8:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Edward fans aren't opening their eyes. The man lost his own bid in 2004 and gave 'nothing' to Kerry's team.
If memory serves me right, he couldn't even win his own State back then.
How in the world can anybody expect him to win ANYTHING this time around is beyond my comprehension.
September 23, 2007 1:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is not 2004. It is 2008. Edward's role in the Kerry campaign was marginalized by the Kerry "brain" trust.
2008 is a no-brainer looking at the electoral map. Assuming for a moment that Clinton or Obama could carry all the Kerry states (a difficult proposition at best), what other states could they carry? Edwards would most easily hold the Kerry states and be competative in Southern boarder states as well as Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico.
Let me say, I will vote for any Democratic candidate to prevent further damage to the Supreme Court, but I am not relishing going on another suicide mission with Hillary or Barack.
September 23, 2007 2:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
JRE will win all the blue states and a majority of all the swing states, and I would bet that he will win some in the south too. I hope democrats don't screw up again and not elect JRE for their nominee. Obama is in the same mode as John Kerry which is seen as a nice guy, but who is too cerebral to connect to middle america. Hillary is seen as a northeast liberal who will push her agenda on social issues and will contiue to push big liberal programs. That is her reputation whether deserved or not. JRE connects emotionally to most americans because he is seen as one of them. I hope democrats don't blow it again.
September 23, 2007 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Personally, I don't think I know anyone (R or D) who WANTS Hillary. Here in SW Ohio (The RED Zone) most Dems I know are for Edwards or Obama. A lot of Dems don't like HRC and are against the idea of Bush/Clinton/Bush/Clinton. We desperately need new DNA in The White House. It is time for a change!
September 23, 2007 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I see what Mel sees and I am in Western KY, work in So IN and spend some time in So IL and Missouri.
Edwards gets strong and broad based support over Dems, Indys and even some Republicans - outside of some relatively biased pocket areas, Obama gets talked up some too (although to a lesser extent and his experience - imo wrongly - is questioned a lot) Clinton will help hand off close contests down ticket to the Republicans and is the only candidate of those three that I hear died in the wool Dems say they won't vote for.
Even some very unlikely seeming Republicans have expressed Edwards & Obama leanings to me. I'd love to see Dodd generate what Edwards does in the area's I'm in, but he has no real name recognition.
all just observational, so fwiw
September 23, 2007 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I will NOT vote for a corporate Democrat!
September 23, 2007 5:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
To further echo Mel and Mary, Obama has been quite popular in downstate Illinois, so I think it is pretty obvious that he can in fact "connect with middle america". But it is true that history shows that when the Democrats choose the "head" candidate (the one whose chief selling point is competence, but who does not have a lot of personal appeal), they lose (see, e.g., Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, and Kerry). When they turn that dynamic around by nominating the more personally appealing candidate, they win (see, e.g., Kennedy-Nixon, Johnson-Goldwater, Carter-Ford, Clinton-Bush, and Clinton-Dole). Of course, this fact has been clear for a while now, and yet for whatever reason Democrats often seem to pick the competent-but-unappealing candidate nonetheless. I suspect they see such people as the safer choices for appealing to "middle america", when in fact they are actually the opposite. This is an unfortunately common kind of Democratic insecurity, insofar that rather than picking a charismatic standard bearer, they think the best way to appeal to "middle america" is to be as bland as possible.
September 24, 2007 6:54 AM | Reply | Permalink