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Poll: Dems Looking Good In Wisconsin

A new SurveyUSA poll shows the Democrats doing well in Wisconsin, a state that has tended to vote narrowly for the Dem presidential nominee:

Clinton (D) 48%, Giuliani (R) 44%
Clinton (D) 47%, Thompson (R) 45%
Clinton (D) 50%, Romney (R) 41%
Obama (D) 46%, Giuliani (R) 43%
Obama (D) 48%, Thompson (R) 43%
Obama (D) 52%, Romney (R) 37%
Giuliani (R) 45%, Edwards (D) 44%
Edwards (D) 49%, Thompson (R) 40%
Edwards (D) 52%, Romney (R) 34%

The Republicans are ahead in only one of the nine match-ups, though many of these results are within the margin of error.


16 Comments

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It is strange that Edwards is the one trailing though. In past SUSA polls, we are using to seeing him be the one setting the pace and running much better than his rivals.

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This poll is very strange in that JRE beats Thompson and Romney by bigger margins than Hillary and Obama, but not Guiliani. Very strange.

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Looked at another way, Clinton and Obama have one lead each that's outside the margin of error, and Edwards has two. So if, as many of us predict, Giuliani tanks for the nomination, the most electable candidate in WI is Edwards.

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Ho, hum. Hillary leading in another key swing state poll by good margins over likely Republican candidate(s). Kneejerk anti-Hillary posters here should start repeating mantra about her unelectablity in 3 ... 2 ... 1 ...

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Remember margins of error -- across all the polls, Edwards is doing better than the others, but we shouldn't be surprised to see scatter away from that average edge, as in this poll.

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Another Clinton $candal - this time involving Chri$tians to win the Catholic vote!
It seems the Clinton$ will use whatever mean$ possible to grab more power.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119076741770539360.html?mod=politics_firstelement_hs

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Annefrank - please take your crazy posts elsewhere.

Second of all, I've said it before and I'll say it again - Let's Go Mitt!!!!!

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There is an interesting trend I see based on these and other state by state polling results over the last few days. When it comes to a choice among Dem candidates HRC does well against Obama and Edwards. But when poll respondents are forced to select between a Dem-Repub matchup, Edwards does as well and, in many cases, far better than HRC. There are some exceptions like the odd 1 point down to Guiliani in WI, but I think the general trend is real. Bottom line is Dem voters should not feel they have to support HRC. Edwards is clearly a viable alternative.

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Both Obama and Edwards are trouncing Romney by 20plus points....why is Hillary basically running neck and neck with Romney, I wonder?

Why does Edwards up by 9 pts on Thompson and Obama up by 5pts on Thompson and Hillary again running in a dead heat with a narrow 2 point lead?

Even more interesting is that Guiliani while running in a virtual tie behind Hillary and Obama but is running ahead of Edwards by a thin margin.

These polls are indicative of a Democratic trend and that Wisconsin knows Obama. Hillary no longer has a big margin over Edwards or Obama when it comes to Wisconsin.

This bodes well for Obama. He can win this.

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There is an interesting trend I see based on these and other state by state polling results over the last few days. When it comes to a choice among Dem candidates HRC does well against Obama and Edwards. But when poll respondents are forced to select between a Dem-Repub match up, Edwards does as well and, in many cases, far better than HRC. There are some exceptions like the odd 1 point down to Guiliani in WI, but I think the general trend is real. Bottom line is Dem voters should not feel they have to support HRC. Edwards is clearly a viable alternative.

An astute remark. I think that what the polls show is that anyone of three top Dem candidates would do well in the GE against the top Repubs. For now, however, the fight is the party nominations, and there is the rub for HRC's opponents and their supporters. She looks very strong at the moment, followed by Edwards, and Obama who seems to have stalled. I am an unabashed HRC supporter but should Obama or Edwards win the nomination, I will become an unabashed supporter of either, and do all that I can to ensure that the White House does not stay in the Repubs camp for at least 4 more years.

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OMG, from annefrank's link:

"...When Mr. Follieri arrived in Manhattan in 2003, he had big ambitions. Citing the changing demographics of many U.S. Catholic dioceses and the litigation costs of the church's sex-abuse scandals, he told potential investors that the church needed to sell lots of property. Buying such properties and redeveloping them could help both the church and urban communities where many of properties were located -- and would produce tidy profits for investors, according to Follieri Group marketing material and presentations...."


Have these people found a way to make money off the sexual victimization of Catholic children? I just read, I think it was last week, about a nunnery in California having to be sold off. It's never the Vatican that pays for it's victimization of these children, it's the Catholic parishioners. And now it looks like the victimization is, in effect, turning a profit for politics. Once again, bad boundaries.

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dfriend wrote on September 25, 2007 10:59 PM:
kjoe,

TPM had a post on the GQ story yesterday if I'm not mistaken.


Please help me find the tpm take on the killing of the GQ story about Hillary's campaign. I cannot find anything.

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Remember margins of error -- across all the polls, Edwards is doing better than the others, but we shouldn't be surprised to see scatter away from that average edge, as in this poll.

Aren't we looking a bit too far ahead. Edwards should be concentrating on getting some momentum toward securing the nomination rather than looking at how strong he would be against the Repubs in GE. His purported strength for the GE would be moot unless he wins the nomination. Besides, this was tried before (the electability line) when polls showed HRC trailing the top Repubs in head-to-head match ups, and it did not work. It certainly won't work now because HRC has made up her deficit in the polls against the Repubs. Therefore, the equation that Edwards needs to solve is: how does he get from here to the GE, where he might well be the stronger candidate (I doubt that)?

To look at the head-to-head match-ups between the top tier Dems and Repubs and then to contend that Edwards is stronger GE candidate is just silly, especially since statistically the three Dems' numbers are NOT different at all!

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Please help me find the tpm take on the killing of the GQ story about Hillary's campaign. I cannot find anything.

Link to TPM post on the GQ story.

Be sure to read the comments too. It was a spirited debate...

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Thank you. Really good points by both sides in the commentary----and a relief to me that tpm did not skip the story.

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Wisconsin is NOT a swing state.
Facts:
One GOP Senator elected since 1957.
2 terms out of 16 Senate terms, is not a swing.

No GOP President elected since 1984.
28 years is not a swing.

Congressmen: 2 Gop 6 Dems.

In 2006, the GOP candidate for Gov, couldn't even take his hometown of Green Bay!

What part of swing do you see in this?

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