So what do Nebraska Dems think Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE) will say at his (R-NE) press conference on Monday?

They think he's retiring. That's what Eric Fought, communications director for the Nebraska Democratic Party, just told us by phone: "Well, I think the conventional wisdom is that he's going to announce that he's not seeking re-election, and that's where everybody thinks this is going to go."

Fought explained that Hagel's own recent behavior suggests a retirement. "He was almost invisible during the August recess, so that's one clue," Fought said. Normally, a politician who plans on running again will spend recesses going to town hall meetings and other public events, keeping in touch with constituents. Also, Fought noted, Hagel has not been raising money for a re-election bid — and this is despite the fact that he already has multiple primary challengers.

Hagel could still throw everyone for a loop and announce that he's running. But so far, there does seem to be good evidence that this will be an open-seat race next year. A Hagel retirement would be a big deal and another headache for the GOP, since it could clear the way for a Democratic pickup if former Senator Bob Kerrey (D) decides to make a comeback and run for Hagel's seat.