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Michelle Obama: If Barack Doesn't Win Iowa, It's All Over
Michelle Obama, speaking out with surprising candor in the Quad City Times:
“Iowa will make the difference,” Obama said. “If Barack doesn’t win Iowa it is over.”
As Ben Smith notes, this is blunter than candidates usually are about the importance of Iowa -- even, I'd add, when they're in full Iowa-suck-up mode.
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Here is a quote from the first on-line commenter to this article -- a person who was at the Michelle Obama event:
I dont' know what event this reporter attended, but I did NOT hear those words spoken by Mrs. Obama. This is a very poor representation of her remarks and overall story of the event. It sounds to me like this reporter thought that inventing a quote would get it picked up by the wire services. Well good for you-where was Ed Tibbets and who is the editor? There were about 300 other people that nearly all got to meet and at least shake hands with Mrs. Obama-she did not rush off, but explained why she couldn't stay for the entire debate. Please-if the QC Times is going to cover a person of Mrs. Obama's stature-please don't send the B Team.
Posted on: Sep 27, 2007 11:12 AM
September 27, 2007 12:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know what Michelle Obama said or did not say, but I do know that Clinton's only obstacle is in Iowa. It is the only state in which she doesn't have a solid lead, and if she gets a win there she will sweep it all.
Thankfully for the other candidates, this is a big if. The latest poll has them all within 2-3 points, and anything can happen Iowa (even a Richardson win!).
Full analysis here.
September 27, 2007 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
That appears to be a misquote by the Quad City Times, as even Ben Smith has acknowledged.
September 27, 2007 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't explicitly speak for the veracity of the quote, but it doesn't sound like something that needed to be said. Obama does not have to win Iowa--Edwards does. A strong second in Iowa would pit him against Clinton. A respectable third would also be good. A fourth place finish, however, would put the knife to his candidacy. I don't think a 4th place showing is really that unlikely given Richardson's continued increase in the polls and smart campaign.
I've been saying it for some time now: watch out for Richardson. He's about even with Edwards in NH and is really the only one "surging" in Iowa.
September 27, 2007 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whether she said this or not, what matters is, Obama needs to have a win or at least stay in second place - out of the first three States or it will take a miracle to continue on.
He has three full months to talk to Iowa and New Hampshire - plenty of time. Look how fast Howard Dean went down - one DAY.
Hillary can and probably WILL go down the same way.
September 27, 2007 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
IF this were true, it would be ALL over the news - I don't see a thing online yet. Have you?
September 27, 2007 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
The only hope of beating Clinton in the primaries is for Obama to drop out. Obama supports would move en masse to support Edwards, since they almost universally hate Clinton. The same cannot be said for Edwards: if he were to drop out, his support would be split between Clinton and Obama, and the race would be essentially unchanged.
Of course, what do I know?
September 27, 2007 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
This quote has been retracted. The corrected quote is:
“Iowa will make the difference,” Obama said. “If Barack doesn't win Iowa, it's just a dream, but if we win Iowa, then we can move the world as it should be. And we need your help in making that happen so join me.”
http://www.qctimes.com/articles/2007/09/27/news/local/doc46fb31e2f3021710970352.txt
September 27, 2007 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
NBC, ABC (and now Ben Smith) are reporting that this "quote" isn't exactly on point. Greg/TPM is on a real roll today with misleading headlines. First, Obama Flops (and the post a debate recap and says NOTHING about him flopping). And now this. Obviously, this was a result of bad reporting at the Quad Times. But still, what's going on at TPM Headquarters?
September 27, 2007 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Greg, The Quad City TImes has corrected their story. Here is Michelle's actual quote:
“Iowa will make the difference,” Obama said. “If Barack doesn't win Iowa, it's just a dream, but if we win Iowa, then we can move the world as it should be. And we need your help in making that happen so join me. ”
Please update accordingly...
September 27, 2007 2:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nice except she didn't say it.
September 27, 2007 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
And run a corrected headline....
September 27, 2007 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK, perhaps my brain is still squishy from missing lunch today. What is the substantive difference between, "If Barak doesn't win Iowa, it is over," and, "If Barak doesn't win Iowa, it's just a dream..."?
Having asked that, I agree with a previous poster who said that Edwards needs to win Iowa. Obama needs to place in the top three, close to Clinton, and then get a win or a top two finish in New Hampshire. Basically, for this horserace to be anything but a rout, someone not named HRC has to win one of the first two states.
September 27, 2007 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Regardless of what Michelle Obama did or did not say, Obama needs to have someone else besides Clinton win in Iowa even if it is not himself.
Iowa can take out a lot of candidates. Biden earlier said that he is making his stand there and Edwards has been keying on an Iowa win to jumpstart his campaign.
Unless Richardson, Dodd, and Biden make a good showing they will be no more relevant than Gravel and Kucinich. If Edwards does not win he will be demoted to the second tier if he is not there already.
Obama has the resources to go on without an Iowa win, but a Clinton win in Iowa will make it pretty tought to wrestle the nomination from her.
September 27, 2007 3:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
It sickens me that we have to suckup to Iowans every 2 year. When we will change oru prim scheduling? Enough already.
September 27, 2007 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
TPM needs to CHANGE these headlines. This is NOT what she said.
September 27, 2007 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Still no correction of the misleading post from TPMEC
I am sure Greg is a busy fella..all that cutting and pasting from other sources but meanwhile an inaccurate, misleading post remains on Page 1
How BushLeague
You bet Obama's got the resources and not only that, you'll find that he's not burning money on overhead payments as Sen Rodham is doing with the hacks on Bill's Rolodex
Democrats - Do you really want to take the Bridge to the 20th Century?
Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton?
If that happened in Venezuela, the US media would be preparing for war
Grand Opening Northern California Obama For America - Sunday Sept 30, 2007 - 1 pm - 436 14th St - Oaktown CA
September 27, 2007 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
How ironic!
That's what the ad from Obama for America says..right here on this post on my screen
September 27, 2007 4:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
If he'd done this to Big Bad Bill and his wife, Sargent would have been GQ'ed two hours ago
September 27, 2007 4:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Send this pigpile to The Muckraker
September 27, 2007 4:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who Gives A Shit What She Said It Doesn't Have To Come From Her Mouth,Listen It'll Come From Mine If Obama Loses Iowa It's All Over For Them ,Did That Sound Any Better If Not I Could Say It In French,Spanish Are Maybe Even Russian If You'd Like
!Go HILLIARY 44 2008!
September 27, 2007 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, three plus hours [and counting] of a misleading headline......sigh. Maybe the point is, like with the msm, do whatever will grab attention for the site's advertisers. The actual quote from Michelle might not do that:
“Iowa will make the difference,” Obama said. “If Barack doesn't win Iowa, it's just a dream, but if we win Iowa, then we can move the world as it should be. And we need your help in making that happen so join me. ”
September 27, 2007 5:18 PM | Reply | Permalink