Big Pickup Opportunity For Dems: GOP Rep. Jim Saxton Is Facing New Challenger
National Dems think they have a major pickup opportunity in New Jersey, now that Dem State Senator John Adler has announced that he will challenge GOP Rep. Jim Saxton.
Saxton's district is precisely the type of district that national Dems think is particularly fertile ground this year: suburban and inclined to vote Dem in national elections. While Bush won the district by under 3% in 2004, Al Gore carried the district by a wide 10% margin in 2000, and next year's Dem Presidential nominee will almost certainly improve on John Kerry's mediocre performance there.
What's more, Adler starts the campaign with $194,000 available in his coffers -- money left over from a Senatorial campaign committee that he opened in 2003 in the event of a retirement from Senator Frank Lautenberg. And it won't be his first time challenging the 13-term Saxton. His first attempt, in 1990 at age 31, before he became a state senator, fell short by 19 points, but he knows the district and has stumped there in the past. For all these reasons, Dems are bullish on their chances of picking up the seat.
One obvious difference between 2000 and 2004 is redisricting. GOP-represented districts are usually adjusted in ways that favor the incumbent.
What did NJ-03 gain in 2002 redistricting, and what did it give up ... and how might that affect prospects for 2008?
September 21, 2007 2:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
The list of Democratic opportunties keeps growing.
September 21, 2007 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bad link Daniel.
I used to live in Saxton's district. Id' say that's a good shot even though his Mt. Holly office looks like a sales showroom for Lockheed, the single biggest employer in the district with 5000 employees.
September 21, 2007 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Adler is a forminable candidate who can raise a lot of money. His entry might push Saxton to retire rather than face a bruising, expensive reelection campaign. If he does, there's a good chance NJ3 goes to Dems. GOP likely will beg him to stay in.
Saxton is known as a "moderate" despite his 100 percent support for Bush's Iraq policies. His environmental record is pristine and earns him loyal support from environmental community. He's an entrenched incumbent who brings home the bacon (Lockheed contracts, etc.) to the district. And he's brushed aside well-funded and well-known challengers in the past.
NJ3 is a throughly gerrymandered district that no one alive can recall being represented by a Dem. It stretches from shore of the Delaware in the south to the North-Central Jersey shore. It's split between NYC and Philly media markets and is an expensive place to do political business.
Adler's entry pits two powerful local political machines in a head-to-head match that promises to be ugly, expensive, entertaining (in a cruel sort of way), and very, very bloody.
September 21, 2007 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Adler carries some baggage - notably the Democratic corruption in Camden County and throughout the State.
September 21, 2007 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Will all the bitching about Kerry and blaming him ever calm down? Or the lionizing of Gore's results, who 2.5 million voters regretted voting for even in the first days after the 2000 election? Gore got 48.5% of the vote, his approval/willing to elect again rating the week after the election was 43%, 55% for Bush. (Which is a 4 vs 5 voter ratio, btw, which the USSC strangely recapitulated.)
2004 was bluntly a Republican vote max out nationally, those 2.5 million going over to Bush plus each side finding 10 million more voters each, that's just an unfortunate fact. In NJ it seems Democrats were confident enough not to put a great deal of money or effort in statewide, though, which probably accounts for the narrow final margins. Have a look at the NJ vote by district. Just about every Republican-held district had higher numbers of voters turn out (>300,000) than any Democratic one (
September 21, 2007 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
For the record, the last Democrat to represent Saxton's district was Thomas Ferrell who served two years from 1883 to 1885. Before that, the district was represented by Dems from 1851 to 1855 and from 1843 to 1845. Otherwise, this district has only elected Whigs and Republicans since 1834.
September 21, 2007 6:33 PM | Reply | Permalink