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September 30, 2007 - October 6, 2007

Congresswoman Jo Ann Davis (R-VA) Dies Of Cancer

Congresswoman Jo Ann Davis (R-VA) has died of breast cancer. She was 57 year old.

Congresswoman Davis was first elected to the House in 2000, becoming the first female Republican elected to Congress from Virginia, and had a strongly conservative voting record.

Richardson Loses South Carolina Co-Chair To Biden

Joe Biden's push for a loose federation in Iraq has won him a new supporter, from right out of Bill Richardson's column. South Carolina state Rep. Fletcher Smith, who had been co-chairing Richardson's campaign in the state since July, has defected over to supporting Biden.

Smith said that Biden's plan is the only workable one, and better than Richardson's proposed total pull-out. "To me it's the only way this problem is going to be resolved," Smith told CNN. "Right now we have a quicksand of a civil war, and I don't believe we can just pull out precipitously in a six month period of time without jeopardizing our interests in the region. We don't need another evacuation that we had in Vietnam."


Amid Skirmish With Rudy, Romney Launches New Ad Attacking Republicans

Amid an ongoing brawl that erupted today with Rudy Giuliani over fiscal policy, Mitt Romney has just gone up on the air today in New Hampshire with an ad attacking Republicans that will also go up in Iowa in a few days:

In the ad, Romney lambastes the Republican Party, saying that if GOPers want to win the White House, Republicans need to "put our own house in order." The backstory here is that Rudy went out there earlier today and did the same thing, bashing the GOP in similar terms. That prompted Romney spokesman Kevin Madden to slam Rudy today, pointing out that this has been Romney's mantra for some time: "Where did we hear this first? Oh, that's right…thanks for agreeing with Governor Romney's message!"

The broader context here is that a battle over fiscal policy erupted today between Mitt and Rudy. Mitt is arguing that Rudy is a tax-hiker, pointing to his embrace of the commuter tax as New York Mayor. Rudy is responding by blasting Mitt's fiscal record as governor of Massachusetts.

As Jonathan Martin notes, Romney's imperative here is to get Rudy to stop spending all his time attacking Hillary, which has earned him huge amounts of attention from a gullible media, and drag him into a battle with, you know, a GOP primary opponent. Interestingly, the battle is forcing each GOP candidate to compete in his denunciations of the GOP's spending -- the subtext being that each one is battling to prove that he's the candidate who understands why the Republicans have been losing lately and hence is the one best prepared to reverse that trend.

Influential Conservative Richard Viguerie Launches Petition Drive Against Rudy

Richard Viguerie, a top conservative leader who was at the gathering of conservatives that pledged to support a third-party candidate should Rudy or another pro-choicer win the GOP nomination, is now upping the pressure on Rudy by launching an email petition campaign against him.

In an email blasted out to Viguerie's conservative supporters moments ago, the conservative leader asked his followers to sign a petition upping the pressure on the mainstream GOP establishment not to embrace a pro-choice candidate. "It will be a powerful warning to those in a position of influence that, if the GOP turns against unborn children, a significant portion of its base will not vote for Republican candidates," Viguerie vows. The petition is here .

It's anybody's guess whether these conservative leaders will stick to the threat of bolting. On the one hand, all this bluster could be just about strengthening the hand of conservative leaders in advance of the moment when they sit down to make their deal with Rudy. On the other, conservative leaders may decide that a pro-choice nominee will give them little at any rate and will completely sap their influence over the nomination process and thus is to be avoided. Either way, we may soon find out.

Minnesota Dems Aiming For A Congressional Sweep

Minnesota Democrats are reportedly feeling good about 2008 — and they've decided to not let even a single district pass them by. For 2008, the DFL will be shooting for all three Congressional seats held by the Republicans.

Read more »


Ron Paul Says Obama Shouldn't Be Condemned Over Flag-Pin Flap

Ron Paul has now become the first Republican Presidential candidate to say that Barack Obama shouldn't be condemned for saying that he won't wear an American flag pin because so doing is inferior to "true patriotism":

"A lot of people might condemn him," said Paul, "I'm neither going to condemn him nor praise him because I don't know his inner motivation."

"He may be very, very sincere in what he is saying," he added.

Dems Hillary Clinton and Bill Richardson have both dismissed this whole thing as a non-issue. But as best we can determine, Paul is the only Republican who has as of yet.

Fox News Poll Asks Respondents Whether They've Prayed For Bush

The new Fox News poll finds that Republicans are twice as likely than Democrats to have prayed for the President:

Republicans (74 percent) are twice as likely as Democrats (37 percent) to have included the president in their prayers, while just over half (52 percent) of independents have prayed for Bush.

Since we're on this topic, the real takeaway here may be that Dems are surprisingly magnanimous towards the President with their prayers. After all, in the same poll only 11% of Dems approved of his performance.

So, if 37% of Dems say they have prayed for Bush, that means that roughly one-forth of Dems disapprove of the President but have nonetheless prayed for him, anyway.

Either way, it's certainly kind of intriguing that Fox polled on whether people are praying for Bush in the first place.

Meanwhile, we have some more fun stuff from this poll right here at The Horse's Mouth.

Poll: Hillary And Rudy Way Ahead In Pennsylvania And New Jersey

Some new polls from Republican firm Strategic Vision show Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani continuing to have huge leads in the New Jersey and Pennsylvania primaries.

In New Jersey, Hillary leads Barack Obama 52%-21%, and Rudy is ahead of Fred Thompson 53%-11%. In Pennsylvania, Hillary beats Obama 42%-24%, and Rudy beats Thompson 45%-15%. No other candidates make it into the double digits.

Dems Postpone Unveiling Of Big FISA Bill Until Next Week

Amid signs that progressives in the House are worried about the direction being taken by the House Dem leadership on controversial new FISA legislation, Dems have postponed the release of the bill out of committee until next week.

The postponement is kind of a big deal, because many were anxiously anticipating the release of the legislation, which promises to be one of the most contentious issues on Capitol Hill in coming days.

The postponement -- first reported by The Huffington Post -- was confirmed to me by Stacey Bernards, the press secretary to Dem House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer. He was scheduled to unveil the bill -- a product of the judiciary and intelligence committees -- this afternoon, but now it looks like it won't be unveiled until next week. "The bill's not ready," Bernards tells us.

The FISA legislation promises to be a contentious issue, because many progressives and Democrats were unhappy with the version of the legislation that was passed in August, altering the Federal Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978, because they saw it as granting far too much power to the administration and far too little in the way of civil liberties protections.

Now that the legislation is up for renewal, many progressives in the House are going to demand that the bill be much tougher this time.

Read more »

Obama Campaign Being Asked About Flag Pin

Barack Obama got some attention yesterday with his declaration that he will no longer wear an American flag pin, considering to be an empty gesture — and it looks like the right wingers are getting ready to hammer the story.

On an Obama campaign conference call just now featuring retired Air Force General Merrill McPeak, who has endorsed Obama in a new ad, Fox News correspondent Major Garrett made sure to ask the general what he thought about Obama's decision to no longer wear the pin.

"This business about the lapel pin, I think the senator understands that patriotism is hard work," replied General McPeak. "If you could just do it by placing a flag on your lapel, that would be pretty easy."

McPeak then dismissed the flag flap as "petty symbolism." "This pin flap is kind of business as usual. Isn't that the old politics, the gotcha politics," he said. "Barack stands for turning the page. Let's do something substantial here."

Poll Shows Dead Heat In Colorado Senate Race

In a new poll commissioned by the Economic Development Council of Colorado, Rep. Mark Udall (D) and former Rep. Bob Schaffer (R) are virtually tied in the race to succeed retiring Sen. Wayne Allard (R).

Udall leads with 36% of the vote, and Schaffer follows closely with 35%, well within the poll's 4.4% margin of error. Another 21% of respondents remained undecided, and 9% are hoping that someone else will join the race.

Schaffer's campaign is touting the poll as evidence that Udall should not be considered the front runner, despite recent Democratic successes throughout the state. "It's like a cold bucket of water in the faces of Democrats," said Schaffer consultant Walt Klein. "This state has not turned blue. It's still purple."

Retired General Supports Obama In New Ad

Barack Obama's new ad in Iowa features retired Air Force General Merrill McPeak, who served on the Joint Chiefs of Staff during the first Gulf War — and praises Obama for opposing the new Iraq War:

"Barack Obama opposed this war in Iraq from the start, showing insight and courage others did not," McPeak says. It's definitely a shot at Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and all the other candidates who voted for the war — but at the same time is just non-specific enough to avoid being a direct attack on anyone.

"The old Washington hands have let us down," McPeak concludes. "We need a new leader to lift America."

Ben Smith declares, "The air wars in Iowa are now really underway."

Romney Promotes Anti-Taxes Platform In New Radio Ad

Mitt Romney has a new radio ad running in New Hampshire, in which he boasts of having signed a pledge to not raise any taxes — and even says that he'll eliminate the capital gains tax, at least for the middle class.

"I'm proud to be the only major candidate for President to sign the Tax Pledge. The others have not," Romney says. "I signed the Tax Pledge because I want everyone to know where I stand. We've got to get taxes down and grow our economy. "

Listen to the ad after the jump.

Read more »

Richardson And Udall Not Running For New Mexico Senate Seat

Two of the strongest possible Democratic candidates for the open Senate seat in New Mexico are taking their names out of contention.

An advisor to Bill Richardson told CNN, “Gov. Richardson is running for the White House unequivocally, and we are going to be the Democratic nominee." The advisor added that even if Richardson does not win the Dem nomination for president, he will go back to New Mexico and continue to serve as governor.

In addition, the Albuquerque Journal reports that Congressman Tom Udall will not be running, either. "It was not a decision that was made lightly," a source close to Udall told the paper. "He wants to continue increasing in seniority in the House."

Other Democrats who might be looking at the race include Lt. Governor Diane Denish, Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez, former U.S. Attorney John Kelly, and former state attorney general and unsuccessful 2006 Congressional candidate Patricia Madrid.

Thompson Raised $9.3 Million For Third Quarter

Fred Thompson's third-quarter fundraising numbers are out: He brought in $9.3 million.

In their campaign press release, the Thompson camp boasts a little too much with their headline, "Thompson Reports $12.7 Million in First FEC Filing." This includes $3.4 million raised late in the second quarter, when he did not have to report anything due to his "testing the waters" legal status.

Thompson still trails Rudy Giuliani, who brought in $11 million — and Thompson has $7 million cash on hand to Rudy's $16 million.

Elizabeth Edwards: John Wanted To "Fight" 2004 Election Results, Was Overruled

Elizabeth Edwards, in an interview with Air America Radio, said that she's "disappointed" that the Kerry campaign conceded the election so quickly in 2004:

"I was very disappointed, not just because we did not count the votes, but because we promised people that if they stood in line and fought for the right to vote, that we would fight with them," Mrs. Edwards told Richard Green, the host of "Clout" on Air America Radio.

"And I was very disappointed that the decision was made by the campaign, over John's objection, not to fight," she added.

Has either of the Edwards pair ever pointed a finger at Kerry for this before?

Good News For McCain: Ron Paul Did Not Out-Raise Him

John McCain can take some small comfort in the final tabulations of his third-quarter fundraising. It turns out he brought in $6 million, not $5 million as early reports suggested.

So what does this mean? It means he was officially not out-raised by Ron Paul, who was able to raise $5.1 million.





South Carolina Dems To Seek DNC's Permission For Primary Date Change

The upheavals in the Democratic primary aren't done yet — though in this new case, it might go off a bit smoother.

South Carolina Democrats are expected to vote at an October 16 meeting to ask for the Democratic National Committee's permission to move their primary to January 19, up from its current favored position on January 29.

The purpose of the move would be to have their primary on the same day as the Republican primary, and thus not suffer a fall in turnout if the media has left the state — moving on to Florida, which is holding its rogue primary on January 29 — and many voters might think the election already happened. "South Carolina Democrats are grateful we have this early primary at all, and with the Republicans moving their date, it gives us concern," said Joe Werner, executive director of the South Carolina Democratic Party.

Iowa, New Hampshire House Members Come Out Against Congressional Reform Of Primaries

A bipartisan group of House members is coming out against the idea of Congress reforming the primary calendar — a group made up of the House delegations from Iowa and New Hampshire.

The five Democrats and two Republicans sent a letter to House leaders today, saying that Congress would be "overstepping its boundaries" if they were to attempt to pass a national plan for the presidential primaries. They also argued that the current system has served the country well.

"This system has allowed presidential candidates to focus grassroots campaigning in our states and helps ensure that the nominees are able to relate to Americans on a personal level and not solely through costly 30-second television commercials," they wrote.

Huckabee Comes Out Against Third-Party Conservative Campaign

Mike Huckabee, told the Washington Post today that he thinks the idea of a third-party Christian right candidate to oppose Rudy Giuliani "only helps elect Hillary," and that he would not seek to become the candidate for such an effort or otherwise support it.

"I don't see that being a good strategy for those who really care about pushing a pro-family, pro-life agenda," he said. Huckabee, a conservative ex-governor and Baptist minister, instead said he wants conservatives to realize there is another option. "If they want to do that, the smart thing to do is coalesce their support around Mike Hucakbee."

That said, Huckabee also says that Christian conservatives who are so opposed to the Republicans nominating a social liberal have a point. However, he added that they only helped bring this potential situation about through their own complacency, and their having been more concerned about fundraising and perceived electability than actually focusing on principles.

"Well, when it gets down to their picking things based on completely secular reasons, and it's not about the issues," he said, "I think they completely marginalize themselves."

Obama: Wearing Flag Pin Is Substitute For "True Patriotism"

During an interview with an ABC News reporter in Iowa, the reporter asked Barack Obama why he wasn't wearing an American flag pin. Obama's response: He has deliberately chosen not to wear one, deeming it an inferior substitute for "true patriotism."

"You know, the truth is that right after 9/11, I had a pin," Obama said. "Shortly after 9/11, particularly because as we're talking about the Iraq War, that became a substitute for I think true patriotism, which is speaking out on issues that are of importance to our national security, I decided I won't wear that pin on my chest."

"Instead, I'm going to try to tell the American people what I believe will make this country great, and hopefully that will be a testimony to my patriotism."

Breaking: Despite Decision, Larry Craig Says He'll Stay In The Senate!

It can't be true -- and yet it is. Larry Craig just issued a statement saying that despite a judge's decision today to deny his request to withdraw his guilty plea, he's nonetheless going to stay in the Senate:

"I am extremely disappointed with the ruling issued today. I am innocent of the charges against me. I continue to work with my legal team to explore my additional legal options.

"I will continue to serve Idaho in the United States Senate, and there are several reasons for that. As I continued to work for Idaho over the past three weeks here in the Senate, I have seen that it is possible for me to work here effectively.

"Over the course of my three terms in the Senate and five terms in the House, I have accumulated seniority and important committee assignments that are valuable to Idaho, not the least of which are my seats on the Appropriations Committee, the Energy and Natural Resources Committee and the Veterans' Affairs Committee. A replacement would be highly unlikely to obtain these posts.

"In addition, I will continue my effort to clear my name in the Senate Ethics Committee -- something that is not possible if I am not serving in the Senate.

"When my term has expired, I will retire and not seek reelection. I hope this provides the certainty Idaho needs and deserves."

So, his reasons for staying are (1) he says he realizes he can still be effective; (2) he would be letting down Idaho to deny them his continued service and experience; and (3) he can't clear his name unless he stays.

Political impact: Because he says he's not running for reelection, the seat is likely to stay in GOP hands due to the tilt of the state. But Craig's decision to stay will infuriate GOP leaders who have been pressuring him to go, because it will keep the story front and center in the news. Indeed, according to CNN, GOP leaders abruptly canceled a press conference they had scheduled for today.

Craig's decision today goes counter to not one, but two previous promises: First, his announced intention to resign by Sept. 30; and second, his office's assertion that if his request to withdraw the plea were denied, he'd step down.

More soon.

Judge's Decision Eviscerates Craig: "A person has a reasonable expectation of privacy in a public restroom stall."

Okay, we've got a copy for you here of the judge's decision in the Larry Craig case, in which he denied Craig's request to deny his guilty plea. You can read it right here in our TPM Document Collection.

Suffice it to say that the 27-page decision is a rather long and rigorous decision for a misdemeanor case -- a reflection of both Craig's tenacious battling and of the tortured nature of Craig's legal arguments. The gist of the decision is, well, that Craig knew what he was doing and admitted as much, and that the evidence supported that version of events.

Here's a sample of the judge's wisdom to whet your, er, appetite: "A person has a reasonable expectation of privacy in a public restroom stall."

More fun quotes from the decision after the jump.

Read more »

Rudy Raises $11 Million In Third Quarter

Rudy Giuliani's third-quarter fundraising numbers are out, and they're quite impressive for the Republican field. Rudy brought in $11 million for the quarter — meaning that he would have beaten Mitt Romney's $10 million if not for Romney having kicked in an additional $8 million of his own money.

Rudy also tops the Republican field in cash on hand with $16 million, ahead of Romney's $9 million on hand, and even further ahead of Fred Thompson and John McCain.

However, all the Republicans continue to trail Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama on the Democratic side, who each broke the $20 million mark for the quarter.

Franken Out-Raises Coleman — But Coleman's Overall Cash Lead Grows

Al Franken enjoyed a decent fundraising quarter, taking in $1.89 million and out-raising GOP Senator Norm Coleman's $1.7 million.

On the other hand, Franken had a higher burn rate with his money, and Coleman's cash-on-hand advantage actually increased. Coleman's cash lead at the end of the second quarter was $4 million to Franken's $2 million — but now it's $5 million to Franken's $2.45 million.

The other major Democrat in the race, Mike Ciresi, has not announced his fundraising numbers yet.

Breaking: Judge Denies Craig's Request To Withdraw Guilty Plea

The judge overseeing the Larry Craig case has denied the Idaho Senator's request to withdraw his guilty plea amid the wide-stance men's room scandal, CNN is reporting.

This is a big deal, because it would seem to render it difficult indeed for Craig to hang on to his Senate seat and keep fighting to clear his name. Craig could appeal, but GOP leaders have already publicly and privately been pressuring him to resign his Senate seat. Craig's office had said that he wanted to await the judge's decision. Now that he has it, it's hard to imagine that he would try to hang onto the seat for the duration of his appeal.

On the other hand, it was hard to imagine that things would get this far to begin with.

The next step will be for Craig to announce his intentions, and reporters are awaiting a statement either from Craig's lawyer or for the man himself. More soon.

Heather Wilson To Seek Domenici's Senate Seat

GOP Rep. Heather Wilson, a protege of retiring Senator Pete Domenici, has decided to launch a run for her mentor's seat, sources close to Wilson are now telling The Hill.

Wilson barely survived a squeaker of a reelection campaign against Dem challenger Patricia Madrid, and since then, Wilson has been further weakened by the Attorney Purge scandal and by the Iraq War, of which she's been a gung-ho supporter. Should a credible Dem candidate turn up, the seat will almost certainly be seen as leaning Democratic.

Late Update: DSCC chief Chuck Schumer has just released a statement wishing Domenici well and professing confidence in the Dems' ability to win the seat:

“New Mexico is a state where Democrats have a long history of winning elections, and with a deep bench of talented Democratic candidates, we look forward to fielding a nominee who will wage a successful campaign. We feel very good about our chances to increase the Democratic majority in the Senate next year.”

Gay GOP Group Targets Romney In Funny New Ad

This is just too funny. The Log Cabin Republicans, a gay GOP group, is running a new ad in Iowa that seeks to undercut Mitt Romney's standing with social conservatives by praising his past record of doing battle with conservatives on social issues when he was governor of liberal Massachusetts.

The ad pretends to be praising Romney by highlighting Romney's record fighting on behalf of liberal issue positions against conservatives -- whose support, of course, he needs right now as he seeks to win Iowa and other states in the GOP Primary. To do this it uses quotes from his past ads and clips of him declaring his social liberalism during debates when he ran for Senate against Ted Kennedy in 1994.

One great quote features an uplifting female voice declaring: "For years, he's fought conservatives and religious extremists." And the ad closes by saying that "Massachusetts values" his record -- the state of Massachusetts, of course, being perceived as the Ninth Circle of Liberal Hell by many conservatives. Take a look:

Interestingly, the Log Cabin Republicans aren't being very direct about why they're running the ad, claiming its his flip-flopping in general that inspired it. Indeed, the ad itself makes no mention of Romney's positions on gay issues, highlighting instead his past social liberalism on other issues, such as abortion.

Romney spokesman Kevin Madden, however, dismisses that claim, arguing that LCR is obviously running the ad because Romney supports a Federal Marriage Amendment and because they are trying to help Rudy, who's better on gay rights, win the primary.

“This personal, negative attack was launched and paid for by a group recognized as having Mayor Giuliani as their ‘favorite’ candidate," Madden emails us. "Governor Romney supports a federal marriage amendment and so it makes sense that a national gay rights group would attack him."

Domenici To Cite Brain Disorder As Cause Of Retirement

Senator Pete Domenici (R-NM) is set to announce his retirement today for health reasons, citing a form of dementia called frontotemporal lobar degeneration.

"The progress of this disease is apparently erratic and unpredictable. It may well be that seven years from now, it will be stable," Domenici will say, according to a draft of his remarks given to the Associated Press.

"On the other hand, it may also be that the disease will have incapacitated me. I am not willing to take a chance that the people who have so honored me with their trust for 40 years might not be served as well as they deserve in the United States Senate."

FTLD is associated with a decline in organizational and decision-making ability, as well as changes in mood and behavior.

Domenici's announcement is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET, back home in New Mexico.

Poll: Bush Approval At Record Low

The new AP/Ipsos poll shows President Bush with his lowest approval rating ever in their surveys. Bush's approval comes in at 31%, with 66% of registered voters disapproving of his performance.

As for Congress, an even broader coalition of voters hate them. Congress' approval rating is a paltry 22%, with 73% disapproval.

(Via Think Progress)



Dodd Picks Up Endorsement Of Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan

I've just learned from sources in the Dodd camp that the Connecticut Senator's Presidential campaign will pick up a decent endorsement today: That of Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan.

Dodd sources say that Ryan opted for Dodd because of the tough stand he's taken on the Iraq war -- his early insistence that Congress refuse to fund the war without withdrawal timetables, a position Hillary and Obama came to later on.

Ryan will cite Dodd's "clarity" on Iraq, sources say. Ryan, an antiwar populist who was apparently courted by other candidates, has attracted some attention from the Netroots for his pugnacious approach to Bush and the war. He could make a good surrogate for Dodd, too.

Ryan will announce his endorsement on liberal talk radio and in a diary on DailyKos this afternoon, I'm told.

Romney Raises $18 Million -- $8.5 Million His Own Personal Cash

Mitt Romney's campaign is announcing today his total raised for this quarter: $18 million. But the campaign also says that $8.5 million of this came out of Romney's own pockets -- so his actual tally raised is closer to $10 million.

Still, that's double the reported $5 million raised by onetime front-runner and establishment candidate John McCain. Republican sources expect Rudy to come in with $12 million-$15 million, which, if accurate, would amount to more raised than Romney but less than his total of $18.5 million.

All of Romney's cash was raised for the primary, and none for the general election, bringing the total he's raised for the primary to $62 million.

Fun sidenote: Romney's tally of $10 million is barely more than half the $19 million Barack Obama raised for the primary, and is significantly less than half the $23 million Hillary raised. Yet another sign of just how much more energized Dems are about their candidates.

Late Update: Forgot to include Romney's cash-on-hand number, which is a less-than-healthy $9 million -- almost exactly the sum of money he gave to the campaign himself this time. Romney's been spending much more cash on TV than, say, Rudy, who announced today that he had $16 million on hand.

Poll: Hillary Best Democrat In Florida

A new SurveyUSA poll in Florida shows that Hillary Clinton is the best Democrat to carry the country's largest swing state. Hillary beats three Republican candidates in the poll, while Barack Obama loses to all three, and John Edwards loses to Rudy Giuliani and runs a close race against Fred Thompson:

Clinton (D) 49%, Giuliani (R) 43%
Clinton (D) 50%, Thompson (R) 42%
Clinton (D) 51%, Romney (R) 41%
Giuliani (R) 50%, Obama (D) 41%
Thompson (R) 48%, Obama (D) 42%
Romney (R) 46%, Obama (D) 44%
Giuliani (R) 48%, Edwards (D) 43%
Edwards (D) 46%, Thompson (R) 43%
Edwards (D) 50%, Romney (R) 37%

Poll: 27% Of Republicans Would Go Third Party If Rudy Is Nominated

A new Rasmussen poll shows that a threat being presented by James Dobson and others on the Christian right — that they would support a third-party candidate if the Republicans nominate a pro-choicer — could have some real weight to it.

The poll finds that 27% of Republican voters would rather vote for a third-party Christian right candidate in a general election than vote for Rudy Giuliani — and that's in a three-way race with Hillary Clinton.

The hypothetical three-way race shows Hillary with 46% support, Rudy at 30%, and the third-party conservative with 14%. Among self-described pro-life voters, Rudy gets only 36% support, with the third-party candidate at 29% and Hillary with 23%. Not just that, but Rudy gets only 25% of pro-choice voters, with Hillary still walking away comfortably with 65%.

In short, all of Rudy's talk about how he is the most electable Republican might just fall through in practice — for every one socially liberal independent voter he picks up, he could lose two or three social conservatives to a Dobson-supported challenger.

New Hillary Ad: She "Will Never Back Down" On Health Care

Hillary Clinton's newest ad running in Iowa and New Hampshire, entitled "Stand By Us," talks about Hillary's efforts when she "stood up" for children without health care, emergency personnel from 9/11, and National Guard and Reserve veterans — and notably, uses an image of Ground Zero in New York City:

"So now that almost every candidate is standing up for health care for all," the narrator says, "which one do you think will never back down?"

Dobson Makes It Official: Religious Right Leaders Will Back Third-Party Challenger Against Rudy

Recently it was reported that around 50 pro-family leaders gathered behind closed doors to discuss what to do if a pro-choice politician -- read: Rudy -- won the GOP nomination. The reports were a bit vague as to what happened, suggesting that the group said they would "consider" nominating a third-party challenger.

Now, however, one of those leaders, Focus on the Family head James Dobson, has published an Op ed piece in The New York Times clarifying exactly what happened: The group voted almost unanimously not just to "consider" backing such a challenger, but to definitely do so. In other words, Dobson made it official, saying that if a pro-choicer wins the GOP nomination, these leaders will be going third party. Dobson wrote:

After two hours of deliberation, we voted on a resolution that can be summarized as follows: If neither of the two major political parties nominates an individual who pledges himself or herself to the sanctity of human life, we will join others in voting for a minor-party candidate. Those agreeing with the proposition were invited to stand. The result was almost unanimous.

That's pretty definitive. The group also discussed the possibility of creating a third party themselves, though there was no consensus on that question. Still, according to Dobson, they will almost unanimously endorse a third-party challenger. This could obviously have a major impact on the race by splitting the GOP vote.

Indeed, a new poll out from Rasmussen today says that more than a quarter -- 27% -- of Republicans would vote for such a pro-life third-party challenger. What's particularly interesting about this poll is that it offers GOPers this choice while explicitly naming Hillary and Rudy as the major party nominees -- suggesting that even the specter of a victorious Hillary wouldn't dissuade many Republicans from going third party.

Obama Slams Admin: Torture Is A "Betrayal Of Our Core Values"

Barack Obama is the first Presidential candidate out of the gate with a statement slamming the Bush administration over today's big New York Times story on the administration's secret authorization of torture:

“The secret authorization of brutal interrogations is an outrageous betrayal of our core values, and a grave danger to our security. We must do whatever it takes to track down and capture or kill terrorists, but torture is not a part of the answer -- it is a fundamental part of the problem with this administration's approach.

"Torture is how you create enemies, not how you defeat them. Torture is how you get bad information, not good intelligence. Torture is how you set back America's standing in the world, not how you strengthen it. It's time to tell the world that America rejects torture without exception or equivocation. It's time to stop telling the American people one thing in public while doing something else in the shadows. No more secret authorization of methods like simulated drowning.

"When I am president America will once again be the country that stands up to these deplorable tactics. When I am president we won't work in secret to avoid honoring our laws and Constitution, we will be straight with the American people and true to our values."

What will the Republican candidates say about this?

Late Update: I should add, it'll be interesting to see if Hillary puts out anything on this. At the last debate she came out firmly against torture, closing the door on making any kind of legal exceptions to torture in "ticking bomb" situations. But that was after an earlier declaration that she thought that the Commander in Chief might need to make such exceptions.

Fred Thompson: Dobson Can Apologize To Me

Fred Thompson made his feelings clear about James Dobson last night: If Dobson wants to talk to Thompson, it should be in order to apologize.

In an interview shown last night on Hannity & Colmes, Thompson was asked about Dobson's denunciations of him, including one time when Dobson said that Thompson isn't a real Christian:

"I don't particularly care to have a conversation with him," Thompson said. "If he wants to call up and apologize again, that's okay with me."

Florida Dems Nelson And Hastings To Announce Lawsuit Against DNC

Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL) and Congressman Alcee Hastings (D-FL) are set to announce today that they are filing a lawsuit against the Democratic National Committee.

The lawsuit will contend that the DNC's decision to strip Florida of any delegates due to their early primary is a violation of the constitutional rights of the state's voters, and will also argue that the DNC is subject to state law over when the primary shall occur.

However, DNC officials already point to legal precedent in the 1981 Supreme Court case Democratic Party of the United States v. Wisconsin, in which the court ruled, "Wisconsin cannot constitutionally compel the National Party to seat a delegation chosen in a way that violates the Party’s rules."

And on a side note, is it the smartest thing to have a federal case filed by Hastings, who was impeached and removed from office as a federal judge for corruption charges?

Poll: Bill Clinton Hugely Popular — HIllary Leads Rudy

The new Washington Post/ABC News poll shows that Bill Clinton remains popular, with 66% of Americans approving of his job performance when he was president, and only 32% disapproving. This is a virtual mirror image of President Bush's approval rating, which stands at 33%-64%. Additionally, 60% of respondents said they would be comfortable having Bill as the first husband.

As for his wife's presidential campaign, she is not viewed as a mere extension of his White House — only 27% or respondents said she would be such a thing, compared to 67% who said she would be different. A full majority of respondents, 52%, say a hypothetical Hillary presidency would be different from Bill's, and that this would be a good thing. And in a match-up with Rudy Giuliani, Hillary leads 51%-43%.

In Iowa, Thompson Changes Position On Ethanol

During a campaign swing in which he toured an Iowa ethanol plant, Fred Thompson acknowledged that he has changed his position on ethanol subsides.

"I have voted against subsidies in the Senate," said Thompson. "But I think it's a matter now of national security and we've got to avail ourselves of a lot of different resources, and I think renewable has to be a part of that picture."

Thompson attributed the change to the sharp increases in oil prices, coupled with the need to lessen America's dependence on the Middle East for energy.

On the other hand, a candidate who intends to compete in Iowa isn't exactly going to stick with an anti-ethanol position.

Poll: Shaheen Way Ahead Of Sununu

A new University of New Hampshire poll finds former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) way ahead of freshman GOP Senator John Sununu, who narrowly defeated her back in 2002. Shaheen leads with 54% to Sununu's 38%.

Bear in mind that an incumbent is generally supposed to avoid being below 50% — and Sununu is below 40%. Furthermore, Sununu's favorable rating is down to 40%, with a 37% unfavorable rating.


Rudy Attacks Hillary As Being Like George McGovern -- Even Though He Voted For McGovern Himself

Rudy slammed Hillary today over her recent comments about giving a $5,000 savings bond to every baby born in this country. Rudy said:

"It's interesting that Hillary is taking something from the George McGovern playbook."

The reference to McGovern was apparently an allusion to McGovern's proposal as a South Dakota Senator to send $1,000 to every resident of the United States.

The only problem, as the Associated Press drolly notes, is this:

In the 1972 election, Giuliani liked McGovern and his ideas enough to vote for him for president.

Details, details.