Congresswoman Jo Ann Davis (R-VA) has died of breast cancer. She was 57 year old.

Congresswoman Davis was first elected to the House in 2000, becoming the first female Republican elected to Congress from Virginia, and had a strongly conservative voting record.

Joe Biden's push for a loose federation in Iraq has won him a new supporter, from right out of Bill Richardson's column. South Carolina state Rep. Fletcher Smith, who had been co-chairing Richardson's campaign in the state since July, has defected over to supporting Biden.

Smith said that Biden's plan is the only workable one, and better than Richardson's proposed total pull-out. "To me it's the only way this problem is going to be resolved," Smith told CNN. "Right now we have a quicksand of a civil war, and I don't believe we can just pull out precipitously in a six month period of time without jeopardizing our interests in the region. We don't need another evacuation that we had in Vietnam."

Amid an ongoing brawl that erupted today with Rudy Giuliani over fiscal policy, Mitt Romney has just gone up on the air today in New Hampshire with an ad attacking Republicans that will also go up in Iowa in a few days:

In the ad, Romney lambastes the Republican Party, saying that if GOPers want to win the White House, Republicans need to "put our own house in order." The backstory here is that Rudy went out there earlier today and did the same thing, bashing the GOP in similar terms. That prompted Romney spokesman Kevin Madden to slam Rudy today, pointing out that this has been Romney's mantra for some time: "Where did we hear this first? Oh, that's right…thanks for agreeing with Governor Romney's message!"

The broader context here is that a battle over fiscal policy erupted today between Mitt and Rudy. Mitt is arguing that Rudy is a tax-hiker, pointing to his embrace of the commuter tax as New York Mayor. Rudy is responding by blasting Mitt's fiscal record as governor of Massachusetts.

As Jonathan Martin notes, Romney's imperative here is to get Rudy to stop spending all his time attacking Hillary, which has earned him huge amounts of attention from a gullible media, and drag him into a battle with, you know, a GOP primary opponent. Interestingly, the battle is forcing each GOP candidate to compete in his denunciations of the GOP's spending -- the subtext being that each one is battling to prove that he's the candidate who understands why the Republicans have been losing lately and hence is the one best prepared to reverse that trend.

Richard Viguerie, a top conservative leader who was at the gathering of conservatives that pledged to support a third-party candidate should Rudy or another pro-choicer win the GOP nomination, is now upping the pressure on Rudy by launching an email petition campaign against him.

In an email blasted out to Viguerie's conservative supporters moments ago, the conservative leader asked his followers to sign a petition upping the pressure on the mainstream GOP establishment not to embrace a pro-choice candidate. "It will be a powerful warning to those in a position of influence that, if the GOP turns against unborn children, a significant portion of its base will not vote for Republican candidates," Viguerie vows. The petition is here .

It's anybody's guess whether these conservative leaders will stick to the threat of bolting. On the one hand, all this bluster could be just about strengthening the hand of conservative leaders in advance of the moment when they sit down to make their deal with Rudy. On the other, conservative leaders may decide that a pro-choice nominee will give them little at any rate and will completely sap their influence over the nomination process and thus is to be avoided. Either way, we may soon find out.

Minnesota Democrats are reportedly feeling good about 2008 — and they've decided to not let even a single district pass them by. For 2008, the DFL will be shooting for all three Congressional seats held by the Republicans.

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Ron Paul has now become the first Republican Presidential candidate to say that Barack Obama shouldn't be condemned for saying that he won't wear an American flag pin because so doing is inferior to "true patriotism":

"A lot of people might condemn him," said Paul, "I'm neither going to condemn him nor praise him because I don't know his inner motivation."

"He may be very, very sincere in what he is saying," he added.

Dems Hillary Clinton and Bill Richardson have both dismissed this whole thing as a non-issue. But as best we can determine, Paul is the only Republican who has as of yet.

The new Fox News poll finds that Republicans are twice as likely than Democrats to have prayed for the President:

Republicans (74 percent) are twice as likely as Democrats (37 percent) to have included the president in their prayers, while just over half (52 percent) of independents have prayed for Bush.

Since we're on this topic, the real takeaway here may be that Dems are surprisingly magnanimous towards the President with their prayers. After all, in the same poll only 11% of Dems approved of his performance.

So, if 37% of Dems say they have prayed for Bush, that means that roughly one-forth of Dems disapprove of the President but have nonetheless prayed for him, anyway.

Either way, it's certainly kind of intriguing that Fox polled on whether people are praying for Bush in the first place.

Meanwhile, we have some more fun stuff from this poll right here at The Horse's Mouth.

Some new polls from Republican firm Strategic Vision show Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani continuing to have huge leads in the New Jersey and Pennsylvania primaries.

In New Jersey, Hillary leads Barack Obama 52%-21%, and Rudy is ahead of Fred Thompson 53%-11%. In Pennsylvania, Hillary beats Obama 42%-24%, and Rudy beats Thompson 45%-15%. No other candidates make it into the double digits.

Amid signs that progressives in the House are worried about the direction being taken by the House Dem leadership on controversial new FISA legislation, Dems have postponed the release of the bill out of committee until next week.

The postponement is kind of a big deal, because many were anxiously anticipating the release of the legislation, which promises to be one of the most contentious issues on Capitol Hill in coming days.

The postponement -- first reported by The Huffington Post -- was confirmed to me by Stacey Bernards, the press secretary to Dem House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer. He was scheduled to unveil the bill -- a product of the judiciary and intelligence committees -- this afternoon, but now it looks like it won't be unveiled until next week. "The bill's not ready," Bernards tells us.

The FISA legislation promises to be a contentious issue, because many progressives and Democrats were unhappy with the version of the legislation that was passed in August, altering the Federal Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978, because they saw it as granting far too much power to the administration and far too little in the way of civil liberties protections.

Now that the legislation is up for renewal, many progressives in the House are going to demand that the bill be much tougher this time.

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Barack Obama got some attention yesterday with his declaration that he will no longer wear an American flag pin, considering to be an empty gesture — and it looks like the right wingers are getting ready to hammer the story.

On an Obama campaign conference call just now featuring retired Air Force General Merrill McPeak, who has endorsed Obama in a new ad, Fox News correspondent Major Garrett made sure to ask the general what he thought about Obama's decision to no longer wear the pin.

"This business about the lapel pin, I think the senator understands that patriotism is hard work," replied General McPeak. "If you could just do it by placing a flag on your lapel, that would be pretty easy."

McPeak then dismissed the flag flap as "petty symbolism." "This pin flap is kind of business as usual. Isn't that the old politics, the gotcha politics," he said. "Barack stands for turning the page. Let's do something substantial here."

In a new poll commissioned by the Economic Development Council of Colorado, Rep. Mark Udall (D) and former Rep. Bob Schaffer (R) are virtually tied in the race to succeed retiring Sen. Wayne Allard (R).

Udall leads with 36% of the vote, and Schaffer follows closely with 35%, well within the poll's 4.4% margin of error. Another 21% of respondents remained undecided, and 9% are hoping that someone else will join the race.

Schaffer's campaign is touting the poll as evidence that Udall should not be considered the front runner, despite recent Democratic successes throughout the state. "It's like a cold bucket of water in the faces of Democrats," said Schaffer consultant Walt Klein. "This state has not turned blue. It's still purple."

Barack Obama's new ad in Iowa features retired Air Force General Merrill McPeak, who served on the Joint Chiefs of Staff during the first Gulf War — and praises Obama for opposing the new Iraq War:

"Barack Obama opposed this war in Iraq from the start, showing insight and courage others did not," McPeak says. It's definitely a shot at Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and all the other candidates who voted for the war — but at the same time is just non-specific enough to avoid being a direct attack on anyone.

"The old Washington hands have let us down," McPeak concludes. "We need a new leader to lift America."

Ben Smith declares, "The air wars in Iowa are now really underway."

Mitt Romney has a new radio ad running in New Hampshire, in which he boasts of having signed a pledge to not raise any taxes — and even says that he'll eliminate the capital gains tax, at least for the middle class.

"I'm proud to be the only major candidate for President to sign the Tax Pledge. The others have not," Romney says. "I signed the Tax Pledge because I want everyone to know where I stand. We've got to get taxes down and grow our economy. "

Listen to the ad after the jump.

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Two of the strongest possible Democratic candidates for the open Senate seat in New Mexico are taking their names out of contention.

An advisor to Bill Richardson told CNN, “Gov. Richardson is running for the White House unequivocally, and we are going to be the Democratic nominee." The advisor added that even if Richardson does not win the Dem nomination for president, he will go back to New Mexico and continue to serve as governor.

In addition, the Albuquerque Journal reports that Congressman Tom Udall will not be running, either. "It was not a decision that was made lightly," a source close to Udall told the paper. "He wants to continue increasing in seniority in the House."

Other Democrats who might be looking at the race include Lt. Governor Diane Denish, Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez, former U.S. Attorney John Kelly, and former state attorney general and unsuccessful 2006 Congressional candidate Patricia Madrid.

Fred Thompson's third-quarter fundraising numbers are out: He brought in $9.3 million.

In their campaign press release, the Thompson camp boasts a little too much with their headline, "Thompson Reports $12.7 Million in First FEC Filing." This includes $3.4 million raised late in the second quarter, when he did not have to report anything due to his "testing the waters" legal status.

Thompson still trails Rudy Giuliani, who brought in $11 million — and Thompson has $7 million cash on hand to Rudy's $16 million.

Elizabeth Edwards, in an interview with Air America Radio, said that she's "disappointed" that the Kerry campaign conceded the election so quickly in 2004:

"I was very disappointed, not just because we did not count the votes, but because we promised people that if they stood in line and fought for the right to vote, that we would fight with them," Mrs. Edwards told Richard Green, the host of "Clout" on Air America Radio.

"And I was very disappointed that the decision was made by the campaign, over John's objection, not to fight," she added.

Has either of the Edwards pair ever pointed a finger at Kerry for this before?

John McCain can take some small comfort in the final tabulations of his third-quarter fundraising. It turns out he brought in $6 million, not $5 million as early reports suggested.

So what does this mean? It means he was officially not out-raised by Ron Paul, who was able to raise $5.1 million.

The upheavals in the Democratic primary aren't done yet — though in this new case, it might go off a bit smoother.

South Carolina Democrats are expected to vote at an October 16 meeting to ask for the Democratic National Committee's permission to move their primary to January 19, up from its current favored position on January 29.

The purpose of the move would be to have their primary on the same day as the Republican primary, and thus not suffer a fall in turnout if the media has left the state — moving on to Florida, which is holding its rogue primary on January 29 — and many voters might think the election already happened. "South Carolina Democrats are grateful we have this early primary at all, and with the Republicans moving their date, it gives us concern," said Joe Werner, executive director of the South Carolina Democratic Party.

A bipartisan group of House members is coming out against the idea of Congress reforming the primary calendar — a group made up of the House delegations from Iowa and New Hampshire.

The five Democrats and two Republicans sent a letter to House leaders today, saying that Congress would be "overstepping its boundaries" if they were to attempt to pass a national plan for the presidential primaries. They also argued that the current system has served the country well.

"This system has allowed presidential candidates to focus grassroots campaigning in our states and helps ensure that the nominees are able to relate to Americans on a personal level and not solely through costly 30-second television commercials," they wrote.

Mike Huckabee, told the Washington Post today that he thinks the idea of a third-party Christian right candidate to oppose Rudy Giuliani "only helps elect Hillary," and that he would not seek to become the candidate for such an effort or otherwise support it.

"I don't see that being a good strategy for those who really care about pushing a pro-family, pro-life agenda," he said. Huckabee, a conservative ex-governor and Baptist minister, instead said he wants conservatives to realize there is another option. "If they want to do that, the smart thing to do is coalesce their support around Mike Hucakbee."

That said, Huckabee also says that Christian conservatives who are so opposed to the Republicans nominating a social liberal have a point. However, he added that they only helped bring this potential situation about through their own complacency, and their having been more concerned about fundraising and perceived electability than actually focusing on principles.

"Well, when it gets down to their picking things based on completely secular reasons, and it's not about the issues," he said, "I think they completely marginalize themselves."

During an interview with an ABC News reporter in Iowa, the reporter asked Barack Obama why he wasn't wearing an American flag pin. Obama's response: He has deliberately chosen not to wear one, deeming it an inferior substitute for "true patriotism."

"You know, the truth is that right after 9/11, I had a pin," Obama said. "Shortly after 9/11, particularly because as we're talking about the Iraq War, that became a substitute for I think true patriotism, which is speaking out on issues that are of importance to our national security, I decided I won't wear that pin on my chest."

"Instead, I'm going to try to tell the American people what I believe will make this country great, and hopefully that will be a testimony to my patriotism."

It can't be true -- and yet it is. Larry Craig just issued a statement saying that despite a judge's decision today to deny his request to withdraw his guilty plea, he's nonetheless going to stay in the Senate:

"I am extremely disappointed with the ruling issued today. I am innocent of the charges against me. I continue to work with my legal team to explore my additional legal options.

"I will continue to serve Idaho in the United States Senate, and there are several reasons for that. As I continued to work for Idaho over the past three weeks here in the Senate, I have seen that it is possible for me to work here effectively.

"Over the course of my three terms in the Senate and five terms in the House, I have accumulated seniority and important committee assignments that are valuable to Idaho, not the least of which are my seats on the Appropriations Committee, the Energy and Natural Resources Committee and the Veterans' Affairs Committee. A replacement would be highly unlikely to obtain these posts.

"In addition, I will continue my effort to clear my name in the Senate Ethics Committee -- something that is not possible if I am not serving in the Senate.

"When my term has expired, I will retire and not seek reelection. I hope this provides the certainty Idaho needs and deserves."

So, his reasons for staying are (1) he says he realizes he can still be effective; (2) he would be letting down Idaho to deny them his continued service and experience; and (3) he can't clear his name unless he stays.

Political impact: Because he says he's not running for reelection, the seat is likely to stay in GOP hands due to the tilt of the state. But Craig's decision to stay will infuriate GOP leaders who have been pressuring him to go, because it will keep the story front and center in the news. Indeed, according to CNN, GOP leaders abruptly canceled a press conference they had scheduled for today.

Craig's decision today goes counter to not one, but two previous promises: First, his announced intention to resign by Sept. 30; and second, his office's assertion that if his request to withdraw the plea were denied, he'd step down.

More soon.

Okay, we've got a copy for you here of the judge's decision in the Larry Craig case, in which he denied Craig's request to deny his guilty plea. You can read it right here in our TPM Document Collection.

Suffice it to say that the 27-page decision is a rather long and rigorous decision for a misdemeanor case -- a reflection of both Craig's tenacious battling and of the tortured nature of Craig's legal arguments. The gist of the decision is, well, that Craig knew what he was doing and admitted as much, and that the evidence supported that version of events.

Here's a sample of the judge's wisdom to whet your, er, appetite: "A person has a reasonable expectation of privacy in a public restroom stall."

More fun quotes from the decision after the jump.

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Rudy Giuliani's third-quarter fundraising numbers are out, and they're quite impressive for the Republican field. Rudy brought in $11 million for the quarter — meaning that he would have beaten Mitt Romney's $10 million if not for Romney having kicked in an additional $8 million of his own money.

Rudy also tops the Republican field in cash on hand with $16 million, ahead of Romney's $9 million on hand, and even further ahead of Fred Thompson and John McCain.

However, all the Republicans continue to trail Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama on the Democratic side, who each broke the $20 million mark for the quarter.

Al Franken enjoyed a decent fundraising quarter, taking in $1.89 million and out-raising GOP Senator Norm Coleman's $1.7 million.

On the other hand, Franken had a higher burn rate with his money, and Coleman's cash-on-hand advantage actually increased. Coleman's cash lead at the end of the second quarter was $4 million to Franken's $2 million — but now it's $5 million to Franken's $2.45 million.

The other major Democrat in the race, Mike Ciresi, has not announced his fundraising numbers yet.

The judge overseeing the Larry Craig case has denied the Idaho Senator's request to withdraw his guilty plea amid the wide-stance men's room scandal, CNN is reporting.

This is a big deal, because it would seem to render it difficult indeed for Craig to hang on to his Senate seat and keep fighting to clear his name. Craig could appeal, but GOP leaders have already publicly and privately been pressuring him to resign his Senate seat. Craig's office had said that he wanted to await the judge's decision. Now that he has it, it's hard to imagine that he would try to hang onto the seat for the duration of his appeal.

On the other hand, it was hard to imagine that things would get this far to begin with.

The next step will be for Craig to announce his intentions, and reporters are awaiting a statement either from Craig's lawyer or for the man himself. More soon.

GOP Rep. Heather Wilson, a protege of retiring Senator Pete Domenici, has decided to launch a run for her mentor's seat, sources close to Wilson are now telling The Hill.

Wilson barely survived a squeaker of a reelection campaign against Dem challenger Patricia Madrid, and since then, Wilson has been further weakened by the Attorney Purge scandal and by the Iraq War, of which she's been a gung-ho supporter. Should a credible Dem candidate turn up, the seat will almost certainly be seen as leaning Democratic.

Late Update: DSCC chief Chuck Schumer has just released a statement wishing Domenici well and professing confidence in the Dems' ability to win the seat:

“New Mexico is a state where Democrats have a long history of winning elections, and with a deep bench of talented Democratic candidates, we look forward to fielding a nominee who will wage a successful campaign. We feel very good about our chances to increase the Democratic majority in the Senate next year.”

This is just too funny. The Log Cabin Republicans, a gay GOP group, is running a new ad in Iowa that seeks to undercut Mitt Romney's standing with social conservatives by praising his past record of doing battle with conservatives on social issues when he was governor of liberal Massachusetts.

The ad pretends to be praising Romney by highlighting Romney's record fighting on behalf of liberal issue positions against conservatives -- whose support, of course, he needs right now as he seeks to win Iowa and other states in the GOP Primary. To do this it uses quotes from his past ads and clips of him declaring his social liberalism during debates when he ran for Senate against Ted Kennedy in 1994.

One great quote features an uplifting female voice declaring: "For years, he's fought conservatives and religious extremists." And the ad closes by saying that "Massachusetts values" his record -- the state of Massachusetts, of course, being perceived as the Ninth Circle of Liberal Hell by many conservatives. Take a look:

Interestingly, the Log Cabin Republicans aren't being very direct about why they're running the ad, claiming its his flip-flopping in general that inspired it. Indeed, the ad itself makes no mention of Romney's positions on gay issues, highlighting instead his past social liberalism on other issues, such as abortion.

Romney spokesman Kevin Madden, however, dismisses that claim, arguing that LCR is obviously running the ad because Romney supports a Federal Marriage Amendment and because they are trying to help Rudy, who's better on gay rights, win the primary.

“This personal, negative attack was launched and paid for by a group recognized as having Mayor Giuliani as their ‘favorite’ candidate," Madden emails us. "Governor Romney supports a federal marriage amendment and so it makes sense that a national gay rights group would attack him."

Senator Pete Domenici (R-NM) is set to announce his retirement today for health reasons, citing a form of dementia called frontotemporal lobar degeneration.

"The progress of this disease is apparently erratic and unpredictable. It may well be that seven years from now, it will be stable," Domenici will say, according to a draft of his remarks given to the Associated Press.

"On the other hand, it may also be that the disease will have incapacitated me. I am not willing to take a chance that the people who have so honored me with their trust for 40 years might not be served as well as they deserve in the United States Senate."

FTLD is associated with a decline in organizational and decision-making ability, as well as changes in mood and behavior.

Domenici's announcement is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET, back home in New Mexico.

The new AP/Ipsos poll shows President Bush with his lowest approval rating ever in their surveys. Bush's approval comes in at 31%, with 66% of registered voters disapproving of his performance.

As for Congress, an even broader coalition of voters hate them. Congress' approval rating is a paltry 22%, with 73% disapproval.

(Via Think Progress)

I've just learned from sources in the Dodd camp that the Connecticut Senator's Presidential campaign will pick up a decent endorsement today: That of Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan.

Dodd sources say that Ryan opted for Dodd because of the tough stand he's taken on the Iraq war -- his early insistence that Congress refuse to fund the war without withdrawal timetables, a position Hillary and Obama came to later on.

Ryan will cite Dodd's "clarity" on Iraq, sources say. Ryan, an antiwar populist who was apparently courted by other candidates, has attracted some attention from the Netroots for his pugnacious approach to Bush and the war. He could make a good surrogate for Dodd, too.

Ryan will announce his endorsement on liberal talk radio and in a diary on DailyKos this afternoon, I'm told.

Mitt Romney's campaign is announcing today his total raised for this quarter: $18 million. But the campaign also says that $8.5 million of this came out of Romney's own pockets -- so his actual tally raised is closer to $10 million.

Still, that's double the reported $5 million raised by onetime front-runner and establishment candidate John McCain. Republican sources expect Rudy to come in with $12 million-$15 million, which, if accurate, would amount to more raised than Romney but less than his total of $18.5 million.

All of Romney's cash was raised for the primary, and none for the general election, bringing the total he's raised for the primary to $62 million.

Fun sidenote: Romney's tally of $10 million is barely more than half the $19 million Barack Obama raised for the primary, and is significantly less than half the $23 million Hillary raised. Yet another sign of just how much more energized Dems are about their candidates.

Late Update: Forgot to include Romney's cash-on-hand number, which is a less-than-healthy $9 million -- almost exactly the sum of money he gave to the campaign himself this time. Romney's been spending much more cash on TV than, say, Rudy, who announced today that he had $16 million on hand.

A new SurveyUSA poll in Florida shows that Hillary Clinton is the best Democrat to carry the country's largest swing state. Hillary beats three Republican candidates in the poll, while Barack Obama loses to all three, and John Edwards loses to Rudy Giuliani and runs a close race against Fred Thompson:

Clinton (D) 49%, Giuliani (R) 43%
Clinton (D) 50%, Thompson (R) 42%
Clinton (D) 51%, Romney (R) 41%
Giuliani (R) 50%, Obama (D) 41%
Thompson (R) 48%, Obama (D) 42%
Romney (R) 46%, Obama (D) 44%
Giuliani (R) 48%, Edwards (D) 43%
Edwards (D) 46%, Thompson (R) 43%
Edwards (D) 50%, Romney (R) 37%

A new Rasmussen poll shows that a threat being presented by James Dobson and others on the Christian right — that they would support a third-party candidate if the Republicans nominate a pro-choicer — could have some real weight to it.

The poll finds that 27% of Republican voters would rather vote for a third-party Christian right candidate in a general election than vote for Rudy Giuliani — and that's in a three-way race with Hillary Clinton.

The hypothetical three-way race shows Hillary with 46% support, Rudy at 30%, and the third-party conservative with 14%. Among self-described pro-life voters, Rudy gets only 36% support, with the third-party candidate at 29% and Hillary with 23%. Not just that, but Rudy gets only 25% of pro-choice voters, with Hillary still walking away comfortably with 65%.

In short, all of Rudy's talk about how he is the most electable Republican might just fall through in practice — for every one socially liberal independent voter he picks up, he could lose two or three social conservatives to a Dobson-supported challenger.

Hillary Clinton's newest ad running in Iowa and New Hampshire, entitled "Stand By Us," talks about Hillary's efforts when she "stood up" for children without health care, emergency personnel from 9/11, and National Guard and Reserve veterans — and notably, uses an image of Ground Zero in New York City:

"So now that almost every candidate is standing up for health care for all," the narrator says, "which one do you think will never back down?"

Recently it was reported that around 50 pro-family leaders gathered behind closed doors to discuss what to do if a pro-choice politician -- read: Rudy -- won the GOP nomination. The reports were a bit vague as to what happened, suggesting that the group said they would "consider" nominating a third-party challenger.

Now, however, one of those leaders, Focus on the Family head James Dobson, has published an Op ed piece in The New York Times clarifying exactly what happened: The group voted almost unanimously not just to "consider" backing such a challenger, but to definitely do so. In other words, Dobson made it official, saying that if a pro-choicer wins the GOP nomination, these leaders will be going third party. Dobson wrote:

After two hours of deliberation, we voted on a resolution that can be summarized as follows: If neither of the two major political parties nominates an individual who pledges himself or herself to the sanctity of human life, we will join others in voting for a minor-party candidate. Those agreeing with the proposition were invited to stand. The result was almost unanimous.

That's pretty definitive. The group also discussed the possibility of creating a third party themselves, though there was no consensus on that question. Still, according to Dobson, they will almost unanimously endorse a third-party challenger. This could obviously have a major impact on the race by splitting the GOP vote.

Indeed, a new poll out from Rasmussen today says that more than a quarter -- 27% -- of Republicans would vote for such a pro-life third-party challenger. What's particularly interesting about this poll is that it offers GOPers this choice while explicitly naming Hillary and Rudy as the major party nominees -- suggesting that even the specter of a victorious Hillary wouldn't dissuade many Republicans from going third party.

Barack Obama is the first Presidential candidate out of the gate with a statement slamming the Bush administration over today's big New York Times story on the administration's secret authorization of torture:

“The secret authorization of brutal interrogations is an outrageous betrayal of our core values, and a grave danger to our security. We must do whatever it takes to track down and capture or kill terrorists, but torture is not a part of the answer -- it is a fundamental part of the problem with this administration's approach.

"Torture is how you create enemies, not how you defeat them. Torture is how you get bad information, not good intelligence. Torture is how you set back America's standing in the world, not how you strengthen it. It's time to tell the world that America rejects torture without exception or equivocation. It's time to stop telling the American people one thing in public while doing something else in the shadows. No more secret authorization of methods like simulated drowning.

"When I am president America will once again be the country that stands up to these deplorable tactics. When I am president we won't work in secret to avoid honoring our laws and Constitution, we will be straight with the American people and true to our values."

What will the Republican candidates say about this?

Late Update: I should add, it'll be interesting to see if Hillary puts out anything on this. At the last debate she came out firmly against torture, closing the door on making any kind of legal exceptions to torture in "ticking bomb" situations. But that was after an earlier declaration that she thought that the Commander in Chief might need to make such exceptions.

Fred Thompson made his feelings clear about James Dobson last night: If Dobson wants to talk to Thompson, it should be in order to apologize.

In an interview shown last night on Hannity & Colmes, Thompson was asked about Dobson's denunciations of him, including one time when Dobson said that Thompson isn't a real Christian:

"I don't particularly care to have a conversation with him," Thompson said. "If he wants to call up and apologize again, that's okay with me."

Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL) and Congressman Alcee Hastings (D-FL) are set to announce today that they are filing a lawsuit against the Democratic National Committee.

The lawsuit will contend that the DNC's decision to strip Florida of any delegates due to their early primary is a violation of the constitutional rights of the state's voters, and will also argue that the DNC is subject to state law over when the primary shall occur.

However, DNC officials already point to legal precedent in the 1981 Supreme Court case Democratic Party of the United States v. Wisconsin, in which the court ruled, "Wisconsin cannot constitutionally compel the National Party to seat a delegation chosen in a way that violates the Party’s rules."

And on a side note, is it the smartest thing to have a federal case filed by Hastings, who was impeached and removed from office as a federal judge for corruption charges?

The new Washington Post/ABC News poll shows that Bill Clinton remains popular, with 66% of Americans approving of his job performance when he was president, and only 32% disapproving. This is a virtual mirror image of President Bush's approval rating, which stands at 33%-64%. Additionally, 60% of respondents said they would be comfortable having Bill as the first husband.

As for his wife's presidential campaign, she is not viewed as a mere extension of his White House — only 27% or respondents said she would be such a thing, compared to 67% who said she would be different. A full majority of respondents, 52%, say a hypothetical Hillary presidency would be different from Bill's, and that this would be a good thing. And in a match-up with Rudy Giuliani, Hillary leads 51%-43%.

During a campaign swing in which he toured an Iowa ethanol plant, Fred Thompson acknowledged that he has changed his position on ethanol subsides.

"I have voted against subsidies in the Senate," said Thompson. "But I think it's a matter now of national security and we've got to avail ourselves of a lot of different resources, and I think renewable has to be a part of that picture."

Thompson attributed the change to the sharp increases in oil prices, coupled with the need to lessen America's dependence on the Middle East for energy.

On the other hand, a candidate who intends to compete in Iowa isn't exactly going to stick with an anti-ethanol position.

A new University of New Hampshire poll finds former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) way ahead of freshman GOP Senator John Sununu, who narrowly defeated her back in 2002. Shaheen leads with 54% to Sununu's 38%.

Bear in mind that an incumbent is generally supposed to avoid being below 50% — and Sununu is below 40%. Furthermore, Sununu's favorable rating is down to 40%, with a 37% unfavorable rating.

Rudy slammed Hillary today over her recent comments about giving a $5,000 savings bond to every baby born in this country. Rudy said:

"It's interesting that Hillary is taking something from the George McGovern playbook."

The reference to McGovern was apparently an allusion to McGovern's proposal as a South Dakota Senator to send $1,000 to every resident of the United States.

The only problem, as the Associated Press drolly notes, is this:

In the 1972 election, Giuliani liked McGovern and his ideas enough to vote for him for president.

Details, details.

Time.com's Ana Marie Cox has an interesting new "SwampCast" up arguing that Hillary's anything but inevitable, despite Hillary's $27 million fundraising haul and growing lead in national polls over Obama.

Ana observes in her podcast that the "inevitability" boomlet could actually boomerang back against the campaign:

"There's a reason we have elections. There's a reason that she's not already in the White House. And primarily for Hillary, that's Iowa. John Edwards has basically made Iowa his second home since about 2004, and he's doing really, really well there...

"With this much writing on her, I think the pressure's even higher for her to win Iowa. If she doesn't win Iowa, I think what's going to happen is Democratic Primary voters...[are] going to look at the results from Iowa and they're going to say, `You know what? Maybe she isn't the inevitable candidate after all and I can vote for the person I actually want to vote for.'"

Voters will vote for the person they actually want to vote for? Sorry. Does. Not. Compute.

The whole thing's worth a watch.

Assuming that Senator Pete Domenici will be announcing his retirement tomorrow, what is the state of play for the seat in 2008? The bottom line: This seat has to be considered as leaning Democratic, though it's far too early to make a final pronouncement.

The Republicans have a huge weakness here: The lack of a serious bench in New Mexico. In theory, the best candidate they could field would be Congresswoman Heather Wilson — but she is in fact tarred by the same U.S. Attorney scandal that has helped to drive down Domenici's political standing, and she has also taken a gung ho position on Iraq.

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Earlier this afternoon a rumor was racing around in D.C. that Senator Pete Domenici was set to announce at a 4 P.M. press conference that he planned to retire at the end of his term. His press office shot down the rumor.

Now, however, The Washington Post is reporting that Domenici is indeed expected to retire:

Veteran Sen. Pete Domenici (R-N.M.) is expected to announce tomorrow that he will retire from the Senate in 2008, according to several informed sources, a decision that further complicates an already difficult playing field for Republicans next November.

Domenici has struggled with health problems over the last several years and has been dogged by questions about the role he may have played in the firing of U.S. Attorney David C. Iglesias in Albuquerque.

Domenici's ratings were also weakened by the Iraq war.

This brings the number of retiring GOP Senators to five, along with John Warner, Chuck Hagel, Wayne Allard, and Larry Craig (who's retirement is not certain but very likely). Domenici is up for reelection next year, meaning that his expected retirement adds to the mounting woes of the GOP as they ponder the 2008 map. The seat is totally up for grabs now, and even could be seen as leaning Dem.

More soon.

Late Update: The Associated Press is now running with this too, adding that Domenici will make a formal announcement in New Mexico tomorrow.

Late Late Update: The New York Times reports that "close associates" of the Senator confirm that he'll announce his retirement tomorrow. His spokesman, however, is still declining to comment. No official on-the-record confirmation of this anywhere, but no denial, either, so it looks like it's definitely happening.

Still Later Update: MSNBC's First Read reports that Domenici's retirement press conference is set for tomorrow at 4 P.M. Mountain Time.

John McCain's remarks about America being founded in the Constitution as a Christian nation have opened him up to getting a lot more questions about his religion — and the religions of other candidates.

At a meeting with the Spartanburg Herald-Journal editorial board, McCain was asked whether Mormons are Christians — a serious issue with many evangelicals, and a potential pitfall for Mitt Romney.

"I don't know. I respect their faith. I've never frankly looked at the Mormon religion. I've known a lot of Mormons who are wonderful people," McCain said. "More importantly, I don't think it should be held against Gov. Romney. The fact that he's a Mormon should not be a factor in people's judgment."

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch has a nice scoop: St. Louis Archbishop Raymond Burke, who made headlines when he denounced John Kerry in 2004 for being pro-choice, has now said in an interview that he would deny communion to the pro-choice Rudy Giuliani, too:

Asked if he would deny Communion to Giuliani if the former New York mayor approached him for the sacrament at the Cathedral Basilica, Burke said: "If the question is about a Catholic who is publicly espousing positions contrary to the moral law and I know that person knows it, yes I would."

In an interview earlier this year, Burke said of Giuliani: "I can't imagine that as a Catholic he doesn't know that his stance on the protection of human life is wrong. If someone is publicly sinning, they should not approach to receive Holy Communion."

Asked about this today on the campaign trail, Rudy offered an intriguing response: "Archbishops have a right to their opinion, you know. There's freedom of religion in this country. There's no established religion, and archbishops have a right to their opinion. Everybody has a right to their opinion."

There's been a steady drip-drip-drip of stories like these, but they simply don't seem to be undermining Rudy's support among conservative or religious voters. A couple days ago, for instance, a poll found that Rudy continues to dominate among such voters, with particular strength among Catholics. Go figure.

Bill Richardson released this statement in response to President Bush's veto of the SCHIP bill:

"The Grinch came three months early this year and stole children's health care. Unfortunately, this is no fairy tale, and unless Congress overrides the President's veto, it will not have a happy ending.

"President Bush's veto is irresponsible. It is outrageous. It is simply immoral. Of the many shifting rationales the President has offered for vetoing this bill, one is that it will burden private insurance companies. That sums up everything we need to know about this President. Choosing between insurance companies and children should not be hard.

"This bill is morally and fiscally responsible. It pays for itself with a cigarette tax right now. It will save us money over the long run by getting poor children the treatment they need when they need it, rather than forcing them into overstrained, costly emergency rooms.

"I strongly urge Congress to do the right thing and override the President's veto."

Fred Thompson has now gotten involved in the Rush Limbaugh "phony soldiers" controversy, putting out this statement defending Limbaugh and attacking the Democrats:

"Congressional Democrats are trying to divert attention from insulting our military leader in Iraq and pandering to the loony left by attacking Rush Limbaugh. He is one of the strongest supporters of our troops, yet Democrats claim he is not being strong enough. I wonder who General Petraeus and his troops think is most supportive."

In a further sign of the Republicans' recruiting problems this cycle, the prospective GOP candidate seen as best able to hold the seat of retiring Rep. Jerry Weller (R-IL) has pulled her name from consideration. Christine Radogno (R), a moderate who ran a credible campaign for Illinois state treasurer last year, has instead decided to seek re-election for her state Senate seat.

The DCCC had more success in its recruitment efforts in the district — their first choice, Illinois Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson (D), announced yesterday her decision to run for the seat.

Ron Paul is largely dismissed as a fringe candidate, but a bunch of people out there obviously like him — his presidential campaign brought in over $5 million last quarter. For anyone who's counting, that's about the same amount as the former frontrunner John McCain took in over the last three months.

It does make one wonder how unhappy a lot of Republican voters must be, if a man running on a form of conservatism that is completely antithetical to the modern GOP can end up raising as much cash as somebody who was once thought of as unbeatable.

Internal tensions erupted yesterday among House Dem leaders over Rep. David Obey's threat to block war funding without withdrawal timetables and his suggestion of a war tax, The Hill reports.

As we reported here yesterday, Obey yesterday dropped a surprise at a press conference, saying that he would use his power as Appropriations Committee chair to block any war funding that wasn't tied to a date-certain goal for withdrawal and to a measure to provide troops with more rest time. Obey also suggested a war surtax to pay for the Iraq conflict.

Today, though, The Hill reports that some House leaders are cool to the war tax idea, adding some in the leadership were angry with Obey's timing. They said Obey screwed up by pushing forward an idea where there's disagreement on a day when Dems were looking to score a big political hit on Bush over his veto of SCHIP, the kids' health care proposal.

“It’s hard to believe you could pick a worse time to do something to divide the caucus than the day Democrats and Republicans come together on both an Iraq bill and in sending the children’s health bill to the president,” a Democratic leadership aide told the paper. “The timing of this announcement made no sense.”

I'm told, however, that there's a bit more to these tensions than meet the eye. House insiders say they think that this anonymous dumping on Obey came from the office of House Dem leader Steny Hoyer.

Hoyer is a big proponent of the new House Iraq bill being sponsored by Dem Rep. Neil Abercrombie that was voted on yesterday and passed overwhelmingly. Because this measure lacks a binding withdrawal timetable, others in leadership -- like Pelosi -- are cool to the idea, insiders point out. Hoyer cared more about Abercrombie than the other leaders did, leading his office to get irked by Obey's distraction.

"The dumping on Obey likely came from Hoyer, who was much more enthusiastic about the moderate -- read: toothless -- Abercrombie legislation than the rest of leadership is," a House insider tells me.

In other words, the fault lines here are at bottom over Iraq -- Hoyer likes Abercrombie more than the rest of leadership, and is also less inclined than the rest of leadership to pursue a funding fight of the sort favored by Obey. "Hoyer genuinely thought Abercrombie was a good thing and Obey distracted from it, plus Hoyer is scared of funding fight," the House insider said.

Late Update: Hoyer's office adamantly denies that it was the source of the criticism of Obey. "This is categorically false and the person making this statement has no idea what he or she is talking about," Hoyer spokesperson Stacey Bernards told me.

Just to clarify, the House insider quoted above was speculating that he/she thought that Hoyer's office was the logical source of the criticism based on his/her reading of the internal dynamics at play in the House. The insider conceded that he/she had no direct knowledge that this had happened, nor did he/she say she did.

The Democratic candidates are lining up against President Bush's veto of the SCHIP bill, with four statements out so far blasting the decision.

Perhaps the most colorful comes from John Edwards: "Instead of threatening the health care of children, it's time for Bush, and Republicans like McCain, Giuliani, and Romney to start picking on someone their own size."

The full statements are available after the jump.

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The drumbeat of good Hillary news just isn't stopping today: The latest is that she's picking up the endorsement of the American Federation of Teachers, which has 1.4 million members nationwide.

Obama was never likely to get the AFT's endorsement, since he supports merit pay for teachers. Edwards, meanwhile, takes a hit in the press -- unfairly, as his supporters privately grouse -- every time a union endorses someone other than him.

The union's release is after the jump.

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Apparently, Rudy is avoiding meeting with Christian right leaders who are opposing him, and is instead taking his appeal directly to grassroots conservatives.

Veteran Rudy insiders have been predicting this for some time, because there's a backstory here that longtime Rudy watchers know about. Back in 2000, when Rudy was running for Senate, he was being attacked by the leader of New York's Conservative Party for his pro-choice views. This was a big deal because Republicans in New York need the Conservative Party to overcome the state's Dem tilt and win statewide office. But Rudy steadily ignored the Conservative chief for weeks and weeks, and at one point started lambasting him in the press. He even said what he's saying now: That conservatives would gravitate towards him despite what their leader said.

Rudy dropped out of the Senate race before the standoff could be resolved, of course. But it's interesting to note that Rudy is doing the same thing now that he did seven years ago -- refusing to buckle to pressure from conservative leaders, and insisting that the conservative rank and file will ultimately go with him as a better choice than Hillary. Longtime Rudy insiders know the history and think he'll stick with this approach again.

A new SurveyUSA poll of Oklahoma — a state that hasn't voted Democratic since 1964 — shows that John Edwards could potentially carry the state against any of three Republicans:

Giuliani (R) 47%, Clinton (D) 44%
Thompson (R) 50%, Clinton (D) 44%
Clinton (D) 47%, Romney (R) 44%
Giuliani (R) 54%, Obama (D) 33%
Thompson (R) 55%, Obama (D) 35%
Romney (R) 46%, Obama (D) 40%
Edwards (D) 49%, Giuliani (R) 40%
Edwards (D) 47%, Thompson (R) 41%
Edwards (D) 53%, Romney (R) 32%

Bill Richardson's surge in the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, solidifying a fourth-place position, can be explained quite easily: Richardson has actually led the Democratic field in spending on TV ads.

Richardson has spent over $2 million on ads in the two key states, running a total of 3,780 spots — with almost all of it going to Iowa — according to a study by the Campaign Media Analysis Group. In Iowa, Barack Obama has run just under $2 million in TV ads, Hillary Clinton $940,000, and John Edwards a mere $13,000.

Chris Dodd, meanwhile has run just as many ads as Hillary but has only spent $450,000, running his ads in cheaper off-peak hours. So if insomniacs make it out to the caucus, Dodd has a real chance to come from behind.

Senator Max Baucus (D-MT) is hitting the airwaves early in his bid for a sixth term, with radio and TV ads highlighting his role as Senate Finance Committee chairman in the crafting of recent legislation to expand the State Children's Health Insurance Program (S-CHIP), and criticizing President Bush for his expected veto of the bill:

The commercial features the image of Abigail Tuhy, one of "14,000 Montana kids who count on the Children's Health Insurance Program."

"I'm so disappointed that President Bush decided to veto my bill, because we can cover those 14,000 kids like Abigail for a year for what we spend in Iraq in a day," Baucus says.

One of Rudy's key arguments to GOP primary voters is that he'll put New York in play and hence would be more competitive against Hillary than his primary rivals.

But the new Quinnipiac poll of New York voters suggests that this argument is flawed: It finds that Hillary is crushing Rudy by 11 points in their home state, 52%-41%.

Interestingly, for all the talk about Rudy's 9/11 performance, Rudy's negatives are slightly higher than Hillary's in New York, too. Full poll here.

Democratic candidate Steve Beshear has a new ad up attacking Governor Ernie Fletcher (R-KY), in response to a Fletcher ad that went after Beshear for serving as an attorney in the liquidation of Kentucky Central Life Insurance in the 1990's.

"Ernie Fletcher's attack on Steve Beshear is like blaming the sheriff for a train robbery," the narrator says. "Beshear rescued the victims of Kentucky Central, and had nothing to do with the company's collapse."

The narrator then goes to describe what has been the central issue in this election, Fletcher's ethics: "Ernie Fletcher can't be trusted. He rigged contracts, and created a slush fund to reward political donors."

The Democratic primary field is now cleared in Colorado's Fourth District. Eric Eidsness, a former Reagan Administration official and 2006 Reform Party nominee, has dropped out of the Democratic race.

This leaves the nomination to Betsy Markey, a former aide to U.S. Senator Ken Salazar, to take on Republican Congresswoman Marilyn Musgrave.

The new Washington Post/ABC News poll shows Hillary Clinton way ahead among Democrats nationally — for the first time, she is above 50%. Hillary has 53%, Barack Obama 20%, and John Edwards 13%.

Also, Hillary now leads Obama in character questions that have been his strong suit, such as "is the most honesty and trustworthy" and "is the most inspiring."

On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani still has a healthy lead, but less so than Hillary Clinton's. Rudy has 34% support, Fred Thompson 17%, John McCain 12%, and Mitt Romney 11%.

Influential Iowa columnist David Yepsen says that the refusal of leading Dem candidates Hillary, Obama and Edwards to commit to full withdrawal from Iraq gives second tier candidates like Chris Dodd a big opening in the state:

While it's clear the three front-runners are hedging their bets, trying to be presidential by refusing to get pinned down on a key question, many Democratic activists are looking for something more definitive.

That gives those second-tier candidates a chance. That's because the Democratic presidential race has essentially been fought to a draw among the three front-runners in recent weeks. The Clinton-Obama-Edwards camps are deadlocked. Polls show them in a statistical tie for first place. Nobody's breaking through.

As Ben Smith notes, the Yepsen column has put a spring in Dodd's step. Today, after Obama's big speech recalling his early opposition to the war, Dodd sent out a release slamming Obama over an old quote in which he declined to criticize Senators Edwards and Kerry for their pro-war vote in an interview with The New York Times.

This quote is often sent around by rivals whenever Obama brings up his early war opposition. Smith also has some video of Obama addressing this old quote on CNN for what may be the first time. Take a look.

Retired general Wes Clark has joined the campaign against Rush "phony soldiers" Limbaugh, with a specific goal in mind: Getting Congress to dump the talk show host from Armed Forces Radio.

WesPac, Clark's political organization, is appealing to supporters to add their names to a Clark-authored email pressing their members of Congress to get Limbaugh off the station, a course of action that some Limbaugh critics, such as Jane Hamsher, are pushing as an alternative to a Congressional measure condemning him.

"It's time to put real pressure on Rush Limbaugh," Clark writes. "His show is broadcast on Armed Forces Radio, and this time we are going to go straight to the lifeblood of Rush's show -- Congress. Congress has the power to remove Rush Limbaugh from Armed Forces Radio, and it won't be as easy for elected officials to ignore our call. Tax dollars are used to fund Armed Forces Radio, and that money is not intended for radio show hosts to spout insults at our soldiers."

House Dem sources were unable to say at this early juncture whether the idea would gain traction with the Dem Congressional leadership. Seems like an interesting approach -- stay tuned.

If anybody wonders how Mitt Romney can be doing so well in the key primary states but lagging nationally, wonder no more. A study by TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG finds that Romney has run a full 10,000 TV ads so far this cycle, the first candidate so far this year to break that milestone.

Obviously, the ads are running the most in all the right places — of the $8 million he's spent on TV, a majority of it has gone to Iowa and New Hampshire.

In advance of the release of his fundraising numbers, Rudy's campaign has sent out a "strategy memo" (read: press release) to "Team Rudy" outsiders (read: the media) that expands on an oft-heard argument from Camp Rudy: He's the most electable in a general election against Hillary.

In this memo, though, the Rudy campaign doesn't just make this argument in general without naming rivals, as it usually does. Rather, it makes a detailed case as to why he's better against Hillary than both Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson. It also takes a direct shot at Thompson, saying that his poll bounce upon entering the race turned out to be a fizzle.

If you want to digest the full case being made by Rudy to leading political and media elite types, we have the full memo after the jump.

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Taylor Marsh has the number first: Hillary pulled in $8 million in online donations this quarter. The campaign just confirmed the number to me.

That means almost a third of the $27 million she reported for the quarter were in online donations -- a reminder of all the work that Camp Hillary's been doing to build online support. No online number from Obama yet.

House Democrats have landed a major recruiting prize in the open seat race to succeed retiring Republican Rep. Jerry Weller (R-IL): Illinois state Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson (D).

National and local Democrats believe that Halvorson, whose base lies in the heart of the suburban Illinois district, will give the party its best shot to pick up the moderate district that Bush carried by a 53%-46% margin over John Kerry in 2004. Republicans will be hard-pressed to match Halvorson's profile, but they believe that state Sen. Christine Radogno (R), a moderate who lost a race for state Treasurer last year, is their strongest option to retain the district.

In a possible sign of the direction John Edwards' campaign will now be taking, advisor Joe Trippi and campaign manager Jonathan Prince will reportedly be taking over the campaign's advertising, following the departure last month of chief media consultant Marius Penczner.

On yesterday's call with reporters, Trippi and Prince indicated that the campaign will be dedicated to promoting political change by embracing public financing and swearing off donations from business interests — and more directly, attacking Hillary Clinton for failing to do the same. Will this carry over into the next round of Edwards commercials?

Obama has just delivered his speech calling for multilateral nuclear disarmament. A few key lines:

We were counseled by some of the most experienced voices in Washington that the only way for Democrats to look tough was to talk, act and vote like a Republican.

Here's another attack on the Beltway political, media and foreign policy establishment:

Because the American people weren’t just failed by a President -- they were failed by much of Washington. By a media that too often reported spin instead of facts. By a foreign policy elite that largely boarded the bandwagon for war.

And here Obama renews his efforts to get voters to see his early opposition to the war as a deciding factor for voters:

So there is a choice that has emerged in this campaign, one that the American people need to understand. They should ask themselves: who got the single most important foreign policy decision since the end of the Cold War right, and who got it wrong. This is not just a matter of debating the past. It’s about who has the best judgment to make the critical decisions of the future.

The full speech is after the jump. And here is a sharp and praiseworthy take on the speech from Joe Klein. And Matthew Yglesias argues that John Edwards "was here first."

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Last Friday we reported that Dem Rep. Mark Udall was planning on introducing a resolution in the House this week condemning Rush Limbaugh for his "phony soldiers" crack.

Late yesterday, Udall finally introduced the resolution. In a statement, Udall took care to emphasize that his measure shouldn't be seen as tit for tat retribution for the House reso condeming MoveOn:

Madam Speaker, it is not my intention to advance a partisan message with this resolution. Nor is it my intention that Congress waste time and effort in exposing partisan hypocrisy, however tempting that goal may be.

It is my intention, however, to make clear to the men and women serving in uniform, many of whom are risking their lives on foreign soil to defend our civil liberties, that it is not acceptable for anyone to accuse them of being "phony" or false patriots because their political views may differ from those of their commander-in-chief.

It's unclear whether this will come to a vote; House sources, however, say there's growing interest in the measure and that things are trending towards the affirmative. Udall's full statement after the jump. We'll bring you the text of the reso as soon as we have it.

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This is kind of big: Dem Rep. David Obey, the chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, just said at a presser that he'll use his power as committee chair to block future war funding measures if they don't contain clear timetables for withdrawal from Iraq and don't allow for longer troop rest times.

Obey, in a reference to the $190 billion war supplemental requested by President Bush, said the following, according to a transcript provided by the committee:

“I would be more than willing to report out a supplemental meeting the President’s request if that request were made in support of a change in policy that would do three things.

-- "Establish as a goal the end of U.S. involvement in combat operations by January of 2009."

-- "Ensure that troops would have adequate time at home between deployments as outlined in the Murtha and Webb amendments."

-- "Demonstrate a determination to engage in an intensive, broad scale diplomatic offensive involving other countries in the region."

“But this policy does not do that. It simply borrows almost $200 billion to give to the Departments of State, Defense, Energy, and Justice with no change in sight.

“As Chairman of the Appropriations Committee I have absolutely no intention of reporting out of Committee anytime in this session of Congress any such request that simply serves to continue the status quo."

While Obey's insistence that the war funding measure "establish as a goal" withdrawal by January 2009 would appear to be nonbinding, this is nonetheless a significant step. That's because Obey is threatening to block funding for the war lest funding be directly tied both to a clear date-certain goal for withdrawal and to Webb's troop rest measures. Also, Obey has the power to follow through on this threat.

The new funding is not needed for several months, but nonetheless, this suggests a newfound willingness on his part to use control over funding to force actual policy changes, particularly on the Webb piece. It's a drawing-line-in-the-sand kind of moment. Obey's full statement after the jump.

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In a sign of just how unhappy conservatives are with their choices in the Virginia Senate race, National Review has a new editorial calling for a draft movement to bring in a new Republican candidate: Retired General Peter Pace.

The article brings out a list of complaints against the two Republicans currently expected to make the race, Tom Davis and Jim Gilmore — for example, even the more conservative Gilmore has supported legal abortion in the first trimester. By contrast, the forcibly-retired Chairman of the Joint Chiefs is praised for his vocal social conservatism, such as when he denounced homosexuality as immoral while giving an interview in uniform.

And in a sign of the right's intransigence on Iraq, Davis and Gilmore are condemned for their insufficient support for President Bush's policies compared to Pace — one of the architects of those policies. And perhaps most bizarrely, the editorial praises Pace for refusing to go quietly when he was not re-appointed as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, in the face of Congressional opposition:

Pace has also explained that his experiences in Vietnam guided his decision about whether to retire voluntarily. Recalling the Marines who followed him onto the battlefield and lost their lives, he said, "I promised myself then that I will serve this country until I was no longer needed. I need to be told that I'm done. I've been told that I'm done."

Virginia Republicans should tell this devoted patriot that he is not done, and encourage him to take on another mission.

This all begs a very important question: Do conservatives actually want to talk even more next year about Iraq, and all the decisions made there over the past five years?

This is interesting: A Democratic group in California has filed complaints with the U.S. Justice Department and the Federal Election Commission alleging that the Rudy campaign has engaged in money laundering and violating campaign finance laws surrounding the now-dead California ballot initiative.

The complaint alleges that Rudy established a "front" group through billionaire friend Paul Singer, a Rudy friend and campaign adviser who was also the sole donor to a group devoted to overturning California election laws in a way that would help the Republican nominee.

The group filing the complaints, called Californians for Fair Election Reform, appears real: It's got well-known political consultant Chris Lehane as its chief spokesman.

Because Singer ended up being the only donor to the ballot cause, the ballot initiative raises questions about whether the Rudy campaign illegally coordinated with Singer's independent committee, according to the complaints. The complaints also charge that Singer took steps to conceal his identity as backer of the original effort to change California election law.

"As an agent of Giuliani's, Singer would be prohibited from soliciting or directing a contribution in excess of $2,300," said the lawyer working with the group that filed the complaints. "We'd like the FEC to determine what Giuliani knew, when he knew it, what conversations he and Singer had about the contribution and how TIA was created. Whose idea was it? How did it come about?"

The Giuliani campaign denies any coordination with the group. More here.

Barack Obama is set to deliver a speech today taking on an old issue — nuclear disarmament — that has proven hazardous for Democrats to tackle since the Reagan years. Obama will advocate for a multilateral reduction in nuclear stockpiles, arguing that in the age of global terrorism the Cold War weapons have become "increasingly hazardous and decreasingly effective."

Obama is not arguing for a total disarmament, however. Instead, his plan would reportedly bring America's stockpile of nuclear weapons to their lowest level since the 1950's — but they would not be gone entirely.

Congressman Pete Sessions (R-TX), a Rudy backer, is making an interesting argument to David Brody: Rudy Giuliani is effectively pro-life.

"In a hypothetical comparison of congressional votes, Mayor Giuliani’s voting record would mirror the voting record of Fred Thompson, including votes on partial birth abortion, taxpayer funding on abortions, and parental notification laws," Sessions told Brody. "Mayor Giuliani respects the values of social conservatism, and his position on these issues would categorize him as a predominately pro-life Member of Congress."

Interestingly, Sessions includes Rudy's opinions on the constitutionality of the partial-birth abortion ban or the ban on taxpayer funding of abortion, as opposed to the merits of the arguments. On the arguments themselves, Rudy opposed the partial-birth ban for years, and as recently as this past Spring supported taxpayer funding for abortion — calling abortion a constitutional right.

The Hillary Clinton campaign just sent out an e-mail announcing a phenomenal third quarter. They raised $27 million, easily beating Barack Obama's $20 million.

There's no breakdown yet of how much of that figure is in money for the primary and how much can only be spent in the general election, but the number can only reinforce Hillary's image as the frontrunner. And it's almost certain that the primary money totals more than Obama's $19 million, marking the first quarter in which Hillary has beaten Obama's primary fundraising.

Update: The Associated Press reports that Hillary raised $22 million for the primary season, beating Obama.

Late Update: Just to clarify, Obama has still out-raised Hillary for the primary season over the last three quarters in total.

A new Washington Post/ABC News poll shows overwhelming opposition to President Bush's new $190 billion funding request for Iraq and Afghanistan. Only 27% said it should be funded in full, 23% said it should be somewhat reduced, and 43% said it should sharply reduced.

The poll also showed President Bush's approval and disapproval ratings at 33%-64%, and Congress' rating at 29%-65%. But before any conservatives celebrate the fact that Congress' rating is slightly lower than Bush's, it should be noted that Congressional Republicans are at 29%-67%, and the Dems are at a somewhat higher 38%-57%. And among respondents who don't think Congress has accomplished much — 82% of the total respondents — 51% blame Bush and the Congressional Republicans, compared to only 25% who blame the Dems.

During a campaign stop in Iowa today, Fred Thompson unambiguously stood by the premise of the Iraq War — and went so far as to say Saddam Hussein "clearly" had weapons of mass destruction and a nuclear program that posed a threat.

"Saddam Hussein, today, had we not gone in, would be sitting on this power keg and be in control of the whole thing," Thompson said. "He would have been the new dictator of that entire region in my estimation. He is — was — a dangerous irrational man who, by this time, would have been well on his way to having the nuclear capability himself."

Thompson also seemed to say that the failure to find WMD was simply a matter of particulars, of where and when America has looked.

"We can't forget the fact that although at a particular point in time we never found any WMD down there, he clearly had had WMD," he said. "He clearly had had the beginnings of a nuclear program, and in my estimation his intent never did change."

Rudy today responded to all the stories about how influential conservative leaders are meeting to discuss the possibility of backing a third-party challenge from the right should he win the nomination:

"I'm working on one party right now -- the Republican Party," Giuliani said. "I believe we are reaching out very, very well to Republicans. The emphasis is on fiscal conservatism, which brings Republicans together."

People who know Rudy well are telling each other today that they recognize a familiar Rudy response here: Ignoring the threat, and indeed, brushing it off. Indeed, there's a backstory here that people unfamiliar with Rudy might not know about: Specifically, Rudy has found himself in this very same place before.

Back when Rudy was running for Senate against Hillary in 2000, the leader of New York's conservative party, ex-Marine and liquor store owner Michael Long, was putting heavy pressure on Rudy, saying he wouldn't back the Mayor because of his views on abortion and gay rights. This was no idle threat: The backing of the Conservative Party, which at the time held over 300,000 members, is essential for Republicans looking to overcome their disadvantage in New York to win statewide office.

At the time, Rudy refused to make any conciliatory gestures at all in the Conservative chief's direction, and in fact lambasted him repeatedly in the press, ratcheting up their confrontation to fever pitch. Rudy, of course, dropped out of that race before the confrontation could be resolved one way or the other.

Seven years later, Rudy is again banking on the fact that these conservative leaders will have nowhere to go but to him, and will ultimately blink. He stuck with this last time, and Rudy watchers are whispering today that they expect him to stick with it again.

Hillary Clinton took a lot of heat from liberals last week over her vote for the non-binding Kyl-Lieberman Amendment, which declared Iran's military to be a terrorist organization. Now she seems to be working to make up that gap by working with Jim Webb on a binding measure to stop a war against Iran.

Taylor Marsh reports that Hillary will be joining Webb as a co-sponsor of his amendment, first introduced in March, which would require Congressional authorization before the president could launch a large-scale operation against Iran.

So will this amendment pass against a likely Republican filibuster? And either way, will Hillary's signing on as a co-sponsor help to assuage liberal doubts about her positions on the Middle East?

Here's a fun little twist in the Rush Limbaugh "phony soldiers" brouhaha -- a GOP member of the House has introduced a resolution praising Rush for his "relentless efforts to build and maintain troop morale."

What are those efforts? Well, they're largely his radio broadcasts, according to the resolution, which was submitted by Rep. Jack Kingston (R-GA), though there's a reference to a bit of pro-troop charity Limbaush's said to have engaged in. You can read the full resolution after the jump.

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That's what McCain sources are now saying. His campaign has $2 million in debt. His actual cash on hand number isn't yet available.

The question for McCain now, as Jonathan Martin notes, is whether to take public financing, as has Edwards, who raised only $2 million more than McCain did this quarter.

The low McCain tally looks even worse when you recall that McCain actually got some of his best media of the campaign this quarter, what with his "No Surrender" tour. Remember, the McCain team's spin last month was that the alleged success of the surge was going to give them just the spark they needed to turn their campaign around. The mantra was that McCain was going to "own" the successful surge.

McCain may own the surge, but he still doesn't own a campaign warchest with any firepower in it -- something he needs a lot more at this juncture.

Plus, as a rival campaign aide quickly noted, McCain's already spending money pretty rapidly on the air in New Hampshire. "It'll go quick," the aide guffawed, adding as a caveat that McCain enjoys plenty of free media from reporters who are quick to write that he's back based on little to no evidence. "He gets 10 stories for every 1 point he bumps in the polls for a media all too willing to write his comeback story," the aide groused.

The DCCC launched a radio ad and robo-call campaign today, targeting eight vulnerable House Republicans over their votes against the expansion of the S-CHIP program, which President Bush has promised to veto.

The ads will be targeted against Reps. Steve Chabot (OH-01), Thelma Drake (VA-02), Tom Feeney (FL-24), Sam Graves (MO-06), Joe Knollenberg (MI-09), Randy Kuhl (NY-29), Jim Saxton (NJ-03), and Tim Walberg (MI-07).

The DCCC is hoping to turn the vote into a major campaign issue, and the available polling is very favorable to that view — voters side with the Democrats against the President by a 60%-35% margin on this issue.

On a conference call just now with reporters, John Edwards' campaign explained their reasoning behind accepting federal matching funds — and gave an open declaration that they'll be attacking Hillary Clinton a lot more in the months to come.

Edwards succeeded in raising $30 million through private funds over the last three quarters, out of a campaign goal of raising $40 million before the Iowa caucus. With the $10 million they will soon get in public matching funds, that puts them at the goal right there, not even counting any money they might raise for the fourth quarter. The campaign actually maintains that they could have reached the goal and gone to Iowa and New Hampshire without the public cash. So why opt in?

Campaign manager Jonathan Prince that said that Edwards "made a decision that he did not want to advocate for ending the problem of the corruption in our political financing" without taking meaningful action himself — that is, opting into the public system in order to prove his dedication to public financing.

And the message to the other campaigns was clear: If you're not opting in, you're part of the problems of politics as usual.

Edwards advisor Joe Trippi challenged Hillary for saying at the YearlyKos convention that she favored public financing as an idea, but would continue to accept money from lobbyists. "Will she commit to what she said?" Trippi said, challenging Hillary to opt in. "Or will she explain to the American people why she doesn't believe what she says?"

Trippi even likened Edwards' more well-heeled opponents to the ultimate bogeyman: "I've always thought of this as like the incumbent Bush last time, with his Pioneers and his Rangers."

The Edwards campaign just revealed his fundraising tally for this quarter on a conference call: $7 million.

The campaign reports having $12 million on hand, which, added to an expected $10 million in Federal funds, brings their total up to $22 million.

More on the call in a bit.

House Republicans may end up having to play even more defense in 2008, as freshmen GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann won't escape without a serious challenge: Former Minnesota Transportation Commissioner Elwyn Tinklenberg (D) announced today that he will run against the incumbent.

Tinklenberg began a campaign for the open seat in the last electoral cycle, and was considered a credible candidate, but aborted his bid when activist Patty Wetterling challenged him for the nomination shortly after giving up her Senate campaign. Tinklenberg has a somewhat more socially conservative profile than Wetterling, which locals believe might help the candidate gain traction in the Republican-leaning district.

Dramatically escalating the Dems' confrontation with Rush Limbaugh over his "phony soldiers" comment, Harry Reid just laced sharply into the talk show host in an extended attack on the Senate floor, hammering Rush's comments as "unpatriotic" and demanding he apologize to the troops.

"His unpatriotic comments cannot be ignored," Reid said. "During his show last Wednesday, Rush Limbaugh was engaged in one of his typical rants. This rant was unremarkable and indistinguishable from his usual drivel, which has been steadily losing listeners for years -- until he crossed that line by calling our men and women in uniform who oppose the war in Iraq `phony soldiers.' This comment was so beyond the pale of decency that it cannot be left alone."

In an interesting bit of political theater designed to put GOP Senators on the spot, Reid said he's leaving on the Senate floor a letter his office wrote to the head of the parent company of Rush's radio show denouncing Rush's remarks. Reid challenged GOP Senators to sign the letter, saying that he's leaving the letter on the Senate floor for the rest of today.

The move is, in a sense, a stand in for another possible move: The introduction of a Senate resolution condemning the remarks in a fashion similar to the one that attacked MoveOn the other week. A new resolution could spark charges that Reid is indulging in tit-for-tat and indeed goes counter to a feeling among some in the leadership that it isn't Congress' job to introduce resolutions condemning private citizens.

By leaving the letter on the floor and challenging GOPers to sign it, Reid is signaling that he's playing political hardball in return, and taking active steps to put them in a politically difficult position, without taking the step of introducing a resolution.

"I am confident we will see Republicans join with us in overwhelming numbers," Reid continued. "I ask my colleagues, Democrat and Republican alike, to join together against this irresponsible, hateful, and unpatriotic attack – by calling upon Rush Limbaugh to give our troops the apology they deserve."

Amping up the fight even further, Reid took direct aim at Rush for skipping military service when he was a young man. "He never served in uniform," Reid said. "He never saw in person the extreme difficulty of maintaining peace in a foreign country engaged in civil war. Yet he thinks that his opinion on the war is worth more than those who are on the frontlines."

Full transcript of his remarks after the jump; video soon.

Late Update: Here's the video:

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Barack Obama's third quarter numbers are in: He raised $20 million, from over 93,000 donors. The campaign confirms that he's now received donations from a total of more than 350,000 donors, an eye-opening number by any measure. The campaign has raised a startling total of $78 million, nearly all of it to be used for the primary.

The latest haul netted Obama at least $19 million for the primary. That's a drop from the $33 million he raised last quarter. But that number will likely be overshadowed by another key number: The campaign says they pulled in nearly 100,000 new donors, a good pull for the summer months that obviously expands their small donor pool in a big way, meaning lots more donors to go back to as the campaign kicks into high gear.

Hillary sources are saying that she raised $17 million to $20 million, meaning the best she'll do is tie, unless her people were playing the expectations game and leaking deliberately deflated totals. It's unclear as yet when Hillary's totals will be announced.

Former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA), a darling of the religious right until his landslide defeat in 2006, might be eyeing a political comeback. Santorum is reportedly considering the 2010 governor's race in Pennsylvania, when incumbent Democrat Ed Rendell will be term-limited.

Pennsylvania has had an interesting political cycle ever since the 1950's, with the governorship reliably switching between the two parties every eight years. So if Santorum were nominated in 2010, would that be his perfect time for a comeback? On the other hand, could such an event actually be the Democrats' chance to break the eight-year cycle?

Late Update: Santorum spokeswoman Virginia Davis seemed to down-play the odds of Santorum making another run for office. "Although Senator Santorum has not closed the door on future public service, he has no intention at this time to run for public office," she told Election Central via e-mail.

Fred Thompson's first-quarter fundraising numbers are coming out — and they're reportedly not all that impressive. After spending all Summer on his "testing the waters" campaign and declaring in early September, Thompson only took in over $8 million for the quarter.

When compared to his GOP rivals' first-quarter numbers — when the mass of people who wanted to make the initial contributions all lined up to do so — it pales next to Mitt Romney's $21 million, Rudy Giuliani $16.6 million, and John McCain' $13 million.

The Thompson camp says they were able to raise money from 70,000 individual donors, bringing in roughly $200,000/day since his official declaration. But bear in mind that after his Summer campaign there had to have been a lot of pent-up supply of donations. So can he improve from here, or is this as good as it gets?

The Wall Street Journal's John Fund reports that the Rudy campaign is now denying that the now-infamous cell phone call from Judi Nathan during the NRA speech was staged:

Mr. Giuliani's deputy press secretary Jason Miller told me the NRA incident was definitely not a stunt. Instead it was a "candid and spontaneous moment" that would humanize the tough-guy former mayor with voters.

But this pushback was too ridiculous for even the ultra-conservative Fund to bear. He concludes: "Nice try. Just in case this isn't obviously ridiculous, Fox News commissioned a poll on the subject. It found that only 9% of Americans think a candidate should ever interrupt a speech to accept a call from his spouse."

We'd only add that this isn't the first "candid and spontaneous moment" of this kind. Rudy also fielded a similar call from his wife -- at exactly the moment that he was speaking at a podium -- last June.

A new poll conducted for the Minneapolis Star Tribune finds Senator Norm Coleman (R-MN) with lackluster approval ratings as he heads into his 2008 re-election contest. Only 45% Minnesotans approve of his job performance — putting him below 50% — with 37% disapproval and a fairly high 18% undecided rating.

On the other hand, 52% of respondents were favorably disposed towards Coleman as a person, with 35% unfavorable, and that's an advantage still holds over his rivals. Al Franken's ratings are at 27% favorable and 34% unfavorable, and Mike Ciresi's numbers are 20% favorable and 15% unfavorable. So if Coleman's challengers want to take advantage of Coleman's low approval and contentious issues like Iraq, they first need to do a lot of work in improving their own images.

New Rasmussen polling from South Carolina shows Hillary Clinton well ahead in the Democratic primary, with a close race on the Republican side.

Among Democrats, Hillary has 43% support, followed by Barack Obama at 30% and John Edwards at 10%.

"Some other candidate" received 17% support among Democrats, which could either be indicative of support for a candidate that wasn't given in the poll, or a wish by those respondents that somebody else would get in the race. Either way, Hillary's lead is well beyond the ±4% margin of error.

On the GOP side, Fred Thompson has 24%, followed by Rudy Giuliani at 20%, Mitt Romney with 15%, and John McCain at 11%. Thompson may have a narrow edge, but it is still within the ±4% MOE.

Barack Obama is hitting back at the argument coming from the Clinton campaign about his experience versus Hillary's, saying that it's really a cover for something else: The desire of the Clintons to keep control of the Democratic Party.

"They want to make the argument that Senator Clinton is just an extension of the Bill Clinton presidency," Obama told the Associated Press. "They've been the dominant political family in the Democratic Party for the last 20 years now. So it's not surprising that they want to focus on their longevity."

There's certainly no ambiguity between Rudy Giuliani and his first director of emergency management, Jerry Hauer — they hate each other. After harshly criticizing Rudy's decision to locate the city's emergency command center in the World Trade Center complex, Hauer is now supporting Hillary Clinton for president.

"I would like to see Hillary Clinton win. She'd be a great president," Hauer said. And as for Rudy? "We need someone to reach out and bring the country together. Reaching out has never been Rudy's forte. He's a confrontational person. He's a bully."

The Rudy campaign immediately hit back. "Jerry Hauer's allegiances depend on which new job he's positioning himself for," said a campaign spokesman. "His loyalties shift with the wind, and the only constant is his own self-interest."

Bill Richardson's campaign has raised an estimated $5.2 million for the third quarter, bringing his total fundraising to date to over $18 million and likely putting him at the top of the lower tier of Democratic candidates.

Richardson spokesman Tom Reynolds told the Associated Press that the candidate would be "very hesitant" to go on public financing like John Edwards, citing the severe spending restrictions that would with the money and thus give an advantage to the Republicans.

Mitt Romney's campaign has turned into something unusual: A hybrid between self-financing and individual donations. The Washington Post reports that with the end of the third quarter, Romney will have raised a total $40 million to date from outside donors plus $15 million from his own personal fortune.

Interestingly, the infusion of $15 million has been done in the form of loans, not direct contributions. If they had been contributions, this would have triggered the "Millionaires Amendment" in McCain-Feingold, which would increase the maximum amount that individuals would be allowed to donated to any of Romney's Republican opponents.

Which does invite the question: Will these loans ever be repaid?

Update: Upon further research, it turns out that McCain-Feingold excluded the presidential campaigns from the Millionaires Amendment. However, this still begs the question of whether these loans will ever be repaid. After all, to raise money for that purpose would effectively mean the candidate was soliciting money for his own personal bank account, i.e. bribery.

Are religious-right elites serious enough in opposing Rudy Giuliani that they'd willingly throw the election to the Democrats if he's nominated?

The New York Times reports that at a breakaway meeting of the ultra-secretive Council for National Policy, such leading figures as James Dobson, Tony Perkins, Richard Viguerie and others agreed on that very proposition. The group will reportedly unveil at a later date a statement that "if the Republican Party nominates a pro-abortion candidate we will consider running a third party candidate."

Governor Ernie Fletcher (R-KY) has been trailing badly in the polls again Democratic nominee Steve Beshear, largely due to ethics scandals that have dogged his administration. So in his new ad, his campaign goes after Beshear's ethics, with what turn out to be pretty shaky claims:

The ad's claims have to do with Beshear's temporary removal from a case involving the liquidation of the now-defunct Kentucky Central Life Insurance company in the 1990's, over questions of whether Behshear's law firm, Stites & Harbison, had a conflict of interest.

The Lexington Herald-Leader debunks the ad's claims, noting that the alleged $100,000 "cover-up" payment came from the firm agreeing to pay the costs of an outside counsel's investigation of them. Furthermore, Beshear was allowed to participate in the case again after the investigation was done.

"I don't think Hillary will have me."

— Former Republican presidential candidate Tommy Thompson, in response to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel's question about whether he would want to serve in the next president's cabinet.

John McCain's campaign released the following statement in response to the fallout over his interview with Beliefnet, in which he said the Constitution founded America as a Christian nation and that he would prefer to vote for a Christian for president:

The senator did not intend to assert that members of one religious faith or another have a greater claim to American citizenship over another. Read in context, his interview with beliefnet makes clear that people of all faiths are entitled to all the rights protected by the Constitution, including the right to practice their religion freely. In the interview he also observed that the values protected by the Constitution, by which he meant values such as respect for human life and dignity, are rooted in the Judeo-Christian tradition. That is all he intended to say to the question, America is a Christian nation, and it is hardly a controversial claim.

A new round of polling from American Research Group finds Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney leading in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Curiously enough, this is the first poll ever to show Romney ahead in South Carolina, a state where he usually has trouble registering, though the result is within the margin of error.

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