A new Iowa poll from Newsweek shows Mitt Romney and Barack Obama narrowly leading their respective caucuses, though the results are within the margins of error.

Among Democrats, Obama has the support of 28% of likely caucus-goers, followed by Hillary Clinton's 24%, John Edwards at 22%, and Bill Richardson at 10%. The margin of error is ±7%.

Obama also leads in the combined first/second choices with 52%, followed by Hillary at 44%, Edwards at 41%, and Richardson with 19%.

Among Republicans, Mitt Romney has 24% support among likely caucus-goers, followed by Fred Thompson at 16%, Rudy Giuliani with 13%, Mike Huckabee at 12%, and John McCain with 9%. The margin of error is ±9%.

Romney has a lead for combined first/second choices with 45%, followed by Giuliani's 34%, Thompson at 26%, Huckabee with 14%, and McCain at 13%.

The second choices can be important in case the race gets too dirty between certain competitors, alienating many of their supporters and pushing them towards other choices. John Kerry and John Edwards benefitted immensely from the same effect in 2004, due to the negative campaigning between Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt.

Hillary Clinton yesterday proposed a "Baby Bonds" program, in which the government would give newborns $5,000 in an interest-bearing account that would become available to them at age 18, for the purposes of paying for college, going towards home ownership or other causes. The cost would be roughly $20 billion per year.

ABC News notes that Hillary proposed something similar in 2006, only then it was $500.

Only a day after reports that Gingrich would put up a Web site seeking pledge money for a presidential campaign, an aide now says that he is backing off and will not run, after all.

"He will continue to bring the American people solutions to the challenges America faces through American Solutions, not as a candidate for president," said Gingrich spokesman Rick Tyler, in a phone interview with CNN.

Tyler said that Gingrich realized he could not run his American Solutions political action committee and form a presidential exploratory campaign at the same time.

In a foreign-policy speech yesterday, Mike Huckabee severely faulted President Bush's handling of the War on Terror, specifically in regards to his trust of the regimes in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan — and even compared Bush to the military strongman who presides over the latter country.

"Just like Musharraf, since 9/11, the Bush administration has played both ends and the middle, assuring the American people that it’s doing everything it can to protect them, while tiptoeing around our supposed ally," Huckabee said. "It’s been afraid of upsetting the apple cart, even though the cart contains poisoned apples destined for export to the United States."

Bill Clinton is now getting involved in the talk about whether Barack Obama, his wife's chief rival, is experienced enough. In an interview with Bloomberg's Al Hunt, Bill said that it's not a fair comparison between Obama's experience and his own in 1992, when he was the same age as Obama is now.

"I was the senior governor in America," he said. "I had been head of any number of national organizations that were related to the major issue of the day, which is how to restore America's economic strength."

Rather, he said Obama's experience is much like his own back in 1988 — when he decided not to run for president. "I came within a day of announcing, because most of the governors were for me and I had been a governor for six years," said the former president. "And I really didn't think I knew enough and had served enough and done enough to run."

Barack Obama is advocating a change in drug-sentencing laws in order to address the severe differences in sentencing for powder versus crack cocaine.

"If you're convicted of a crime involving drugs, of course you should be punished," Obama said at Howard University's opening convocation. "But let's not make the punishment for crack cocaine that much more severe than the punishment for powder cocaine when the real difference is where the people are using them or who is using them."

Obama also discussed the Jena Six controversy: "Like Katrina did with poverty, Jena exposed glaring inequities in our justice system that were around long before that schoolyard fight broke out."

Obama could be taking a risk in discussing cocaine sentencing laws — in his first book, Dreams From My Father, he discussed his own drug experiences, including cocaine.

CNN reports that Barack Obama's campaign will take in $18-19 million for the quarter, and Hillary Clinton's campaign will have raised $17-20 million. If true, this means that they are about tied, or Hillary might even have out-raised Obama after two quarters in which he beat her in the money race.

There is of course the chance that the campaigns are both working the expectations game, and could have actually raised more than this. Or, the sources might actually be telling the truth.

Fred Thompson's campaign is expected to report taking in over $7 million for the third quarter, according to CNN. Thompson only officially declared his candidacy early this month, but this is still a letdown in that he'd been actively courting donors and building his campaign through his "testing the waters" committee all Summer.

Any last-minute presidential candidates now have a firm deadline to meet. New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner has selected November 2 as the filing deadline to get on the ballot for the state's primary — meaning that if Newt Gingrich or Al Gore decide to get in, they better do it before then.

It's still unclear when the actual primary will be, though. Gardner has a unique latitude among state election officers in setting the dates, and he has declined to pick that one yet so as to maintain his own leverage and head off any state trying to leapfrog over New Hampshire.

The Obama campaign has backtracked from a remark by Michelle Obama, that the candidate has to win Iowa. But it turns out that a Obama's campaign manager accidentally said the same thing in a new article in The New Republic:

I ran into Obama's wiry campaign manager, David Plouffe, chatting in a doorway. I mentioned to Plouffe that I had just returned from Iowa. "Iowa — that's the whole shebang!" he said. Then he paused. "I guess I'm not supposed to say that," he added with a grin. "But Iowa is very important."

I've just learned that Rep. Mark Udall (D-CO) will be introducing a resolution in the House of Representatives on Monday condemning Rush Limbaugh for his "phony soldiers" remark.

This is significant because it has the potential to dramatically up the stakes in this fight. If the Democratic leadership allows it to go for a vote, it will force all the Republicans in the House to either vote for it, against it, or skip the vote -- and to pass judgment on the powerful conservative talk show host's contention that troops who don't support President Bush's war policies are "phony soldiers."

It will also potentially present the Dem leadership with a not-so-easy choice. Many people will naturally call on the leadership to allow the resolution to come to a vote, which is not necessarily something the leadership might want, since it could look like a tit-for-tat reso in retaliation for the measure condemning MoveOn. It also is potentially problematic for some in the leadership because there is an internal sentiment that it's not Congress' job to go around denouncing the remarks, however reprehensible, of private citizens.

Sources tell us that there's a lot of interest in this resolution among rank and file Dem House members, and that it may come up for a vote soon. There's no guarantee by any means that this will end up happening, though it's likely that there will be some pressure on the leadership make it happen. Udall, whose office confirmed to me that he'd introduce the reso on Monday, has powerful incentive to drum up attention for it as a Senate candidate in Colorado.

Either way, it's a key development, because it has the potential to move this from a rhetorical battle to a legislative one, which would keep the story going. Here's Rep. Udall's "dear colleague" letter, which was leaked to Election Central:

September 28, 2007

JOIN AS AN ORIGINAL COSPONSOR OF A RESOLUTION

HONORING OUR ARMED FORCES AND

CONDEMNING RUSH LIMBAUGH'S ATTACK

ON "PHONY SOLDIERS"

Dear Colleague:

On September 26, 2007 the broadcaster Rush Limbaugh told a nationwide radio audience that members of the Armed Forces who have expressed disagreement with current policies of the United States regarding military activities in Iraq are "phony soldiers."

On Monday I will introduce a resolution honoring all Americans serving in the Armed Forces and condemning this unwarranted attack on the integrity and professionalism of those in the Armed Forces who choose to exercise their constitutional right to express their opinions regarding U.S. military action in Iraq.

For more information or to cosponsor the resolution, please contact XXXXXXX in my office at xxxxx.

Sincerely,

Mark Udall

Things could get very interesting next week. More on the media dynamic at play on this story right here at The Horse's Mouth.

Atrios reminds us that there's something of a backstory to the Rush-McCain relationship that could help explain the harshness of McCain's denunciation of Rush today: Back in 2000 when insurgent McCain was threatening Bush's casual stroll to the GOP nomination, Rush attacked him relentlessly for weeks and weeks on end.

Of course, McCain has happily patched things up this year with plenty of other folks on the right who he didn't get along with in 2000. So in the unlikely event that McCain gets the nomination, all will be forgiven and he'll be a happy guest in Rush's studio. But the backstory is interesting.

Rudy Giuliani, the most socially liberal major Republican candidate since Gerald Ford, tried an interesting line with Christian-right reporter David Brody: Citing the Bible.

"I'm guided very, very often about, 'Don't judge others, lest ye be judged,'" Rudy said when asked about his turbulent family life. "I'm guided a lot by the story of the woman that was gonna be stoned, and Jesus put the stones down and said, 'He that hasn't sinned, cast the first stone,' and everybody disappeared.

"It seems like, nowadays in America we have people that think they could've passed that test. And I don't think anybody could've passed that test but Jesus."

Rudy also gave an explanation for the odd manner in which he took a call from his wife during his speech before the NRA — citing 9/11. "My wife calls me when she gets on a plane," he said, saying how she was about to get on another plane but he didn't know exactly which one.

"And quite honestly, since Sept. 11, most of the time when we get on a plane, we talk to each other and just reaffirm the fact that we love each other," he said. "Sometimes if I'm in the middle of a very, very sensitive meeting, I don't take the call right then — I wait. But I thought it would be kind of nice if I took it at that point."

Mitt Romney becomes the second GOP Presidential candidate to denounce Rush Limbaugh with this statement sent to the Huffington Post by Romney spokesman Kevin Madden:

"Governor Romney would disagree with the negative characterization of those men and women who serve with honor and distinction in the United States Military. There may be disagreements with individual opinions, but no one would ever dispute the fact that those members of the military who disagree with the war have earned the right to express that opinion."

Rudy? Are you there?

This is pretty interesting. Newt Gingrich sat down for an interview with two conservative bloggers, Robert Bluey of RedState and Ed Morrissey of Captain's Quarters. While the two understandably were most interested in Gingrich's contention that Hillary is the most effective candidate among the Dems, another line grabbed our interest.

Specifically, Newt denounced the campaign Republicans ran against Kerry in 2004 as "cheap and nasty." Take a look:

Gingrich, speaking about Hillary, says:

"The most effective candidate in the race is Hillary Clinton. She has done exactly what you asked. It's just that her answers are wrong. Senator Clinton is a serious, competent, formidable person who works hard every day. She's for too much government, she's for too liberal a policy, she would appoint judges who are way too liberal. But she is a formidable person. No one on our side is going to beat her by the kind of cheap and nasty campaign that beat John Kerry."

"Cheap and nasty" -- that's what a lot of Dems, and independent observers, were saying about the GOP's campaign against Kerry at the time, too. What did Newt say he thought of the campaign against Kerry while it was happening? Might be worth checking into. At any rate, definitely noteworthy, and interesting that Newt thinks that Hillary is not "swift-boatable" the way Kerry was.

The first Republican member of Congress -- and first GOP Presidential candidate -- has now stepped forward to condemn Rush's "phony soldier" remark.

Time.com's Ana Marie Cox asked John McCain for a response to Rush's comments, and she received this blistering statement from the veteran and torture victim:

Any American who risks his or her life to defend us has earned the respect and gratitude of every American citizen, irrespective of their views on this war. If Mr. Limbaugh made the remark he is reported to have made, it reflects very poorly on him and not the objects of his offensive comment. I expect most Americans, whatever their political views, will have the same reaction. He would be well advised to retract it and apologize.

That's pretty tough stuff.

Meanwhile, lots more other developments in the "phony soldiers" saga. Huffington Post has unearthed a new and even more eye-opening episode of Rush soldier-bashing.

And Think Progress has obtained a letter from Senate Democratic leaders calling on Rush's parent company, Clear Channel, to repudiate his remarks.

Meanwhile, our take on the press dynamic at play on this story is right here at The Horse's Mouth.

Newt Gingrich is poised to enter the presidential contest on Monday with an interesting device: A self-made draft site.

The site will ask people to pledge money for his campaign if he were to run, and will lay out his ideas for the country.

And if he does officially declare, Gingrich will campaign in an unorthodox way, too. He'll skip the group debates, considering them to be useless pageants, and will instead challenge the others to one-on-one dialogues. Instead of sound-bite TV advertising, he'll mail DVD's to voters in the early primary/caucus states, in which he'll present his views to them in a lengthier format and ask for their support.

So is this for real? Gingrich is not actually forming an exploratory or "testing the waters" committee, so he can't directly fundraise — thus the pledge drive. Will this snowball into something bigger with GOP activists uncomfortable with their current choices?

The Edwards campaign has released a long memo by campaign manager David Bonoir explaining the decision to take public financing. The memo seeks to rebut every argument about this, from the idea that he's doing it out of necessity in the face of the Hillary and Obama fundraising juggernauts, to the charge that it would amount to unilateral financial disarmament against the Republicans in a general election.

The full memo is after the jump. Meanwhile, Ben Smith has obtained the campaign's internal talking points on the issue, so you can compare and contrast.

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Hillary Clinton is set to get the endorsement of a past Democratic nominee for president (besides Bill, of course). ABC News is reporting that Hillary will get the endorsement of former Senator George McGovern (D-SD), in an official announcement on October 6.

It's not actually that surprising. Bill and Hillary worked on McGovern's 1972 anti-war campaign, which lost in a landslide to Richard Nixon. So it might follow that McGovern would be inclined to return the favor — hopefully with a different outcome this time.

A Republican group called Stop Her now is vowing to raise and spend between $500,000 and $600,000 in an all-out effort to derail Hillary's Presidential candidacy between now and February.

"We expect we'll be much more intense in our efforts between now and Feb. 28," said Texas businessman Richard Collins, a leading organizer of the group. Among their efforts will be adding more mainstream humor — not just the right-wing kind — to their Web site and other efforts.

In addition, another group called Citizens United is producing an anti-Hillary documentary, which backers intend to serve the same role as the Swift Boat Veterans For Truth campaign against John Kerry in 2004.

As we reported earlier today over at The Horse's Mouth, Democrats and others have been pressuring the White House press corps to ask White House flack Dana Perino if President Bush -- who'd earlier condemned MoveOn -- would repudiate Rush Limbaugh's assertion that troops who want to withdraw from Iraq are "phony soldiers."

At the press briefing a few moments ago, a reporter did ask Perino the question. In response, she faulted Rush for the remark. She claimed that while she hadn't personally heard the remarks (she said), the President doesn't agree with the underlying sentiment and wouldn't have used those words. Take a look:

Perino said: "The President believes that if you are serving in the military that you have the rights that every American has which is you're free to express yourself in any way that you want to. And there are some that oppose the war, and that's okay."

Pressed specifically about Rush's "phony soldiers" phrase, she added: "It's not what the President would have used, no."

Hardly the scathing condemnation that MoveOn earned at the hands of the President of course. But this is still noteworthy, particularly since Bush and top Republicans are guests on his show. Despite Perino's contention that she hadn't heard the comment, the practiced answer that followed suggests that the White House made an internal decision to criticize the comment.

We have more ongoing coverage of this over at The Horse's Mouth.

A new Gallup poll finds Hillary Clinton leading the Democratic field in every category you think of: Ideology, region, income level, age, gender, you name it. This isn't entirely surprising given her overall national support of 48%, followed way behind by Barack Obama's 26% and John Edwards at 12%.

Obama might want to be concerned about this number: Blacks support Hillary over him by a 51%-38% margin.

The full numbers from the poll are available here.

We keep hearing that Rudy's views on gun-control, gay-rights and abortion will cause him to sink among conservative and religious voters, but this just isn't happening.

Indeed, a new Gallup poll released this morning shows the opposite: He's dominating the GOP field among these groups. What's more, he's tied for first with Fred Thompson -- among southern voters!

The poll finds:

* Rudy leads among conservative Republicans with 30%. Thompson is in second with 23%, John McCain in third with 15%, and Mitt Romney is in forth with 10%.

* Rudy leads among Republican voters who attend church weekly with 27%. Thompson is in second with 24%; McCain has 17%; and Romney has 9%. Rudy also leads among Republicans who attend church monthly. Not surprisingly, the catholic Rudy is very dominant among Catholic voters, but he's also leading among Protestants, too.

* Rudy is tied with Thompson among southern Republicans at 28%. McCain has 12% and Romney has 6%.

It's true that other polls have shown that many conservatives aren't familiar with Rudy's positions on issues of importance to them. But at some point, numbers like the above will have to be taken seriously.

In a sign that Republicans are coalescing around the candidacy of frontrunner Mike Johanns in the primary to replace retiring Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE), former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub has dropped out of the race, only 11 days after entering. Daub said that by leaving the race, he will help to avoid a contentious primary that could prevent Republicans from retaining the seat.

Just this week, Daub launched the first tv ad of the race.

There's a fascinating number buried in the new Fox News poll:

Would you describe [candidate name] as someone you can really relate to or not?

Hillary Clinton: Yes 45%; No 48%

Rudy Giuliani: Yes 43%; No 43%

Barack Obama: Yes 41%; No 43%

John McCain: Yes 37%; No 44%

Fred Thompson: Yes 26%; No 43%

So the candidate most voters can relate to is Hillary, who's routinely described by pundits as having a likability problem. The candidate the least voters can relate to is Fred Thompson, who's routinely described by pundits as affable. One caveat: Hillary also scores highest in the category of who voters can't relate to. Still, these are eye-opening numbers.

California Republicans are giving up on their attempted ballot initiative to split the state's electoral votes according to the winners of individual Congressional districts. If the measure had passed, the Republican nominee would have won an estimated 20 or so electoral votes from straight out of the Democratic column.

The organizers, an astroturf group calling themselves "Californians For Equal Representation," had problems with staff disputes, resignations and fundraising. But did they really need the money for a media campaign? They already had the active backing of Fox News.

"Let me be clear. I think Republican consultants are mostly very stupid. I think they have no education. I think they have no sense of history."

-- Newt Gingrich, in an interview with blogtalkradio flagged by Jonathan Martin.

Despite its heavy Republican lean in Presidential contests, national and local Democrats are hoping to make a serious play for the district of retiring Congressman Terry Everett (R-AL).

Among those considering the race is Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright, a self-described independent with ties to the state Democratic Party. Bright, who recently was re-elected with nearly 60% of the vote in a crowded field, told the Associated Press that he has been approached by both Democrats and Republicans to run for the seat. DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen called Bright "an A Team candidate" and added that the committee had been hoping to recruit him for a while, in preparation for Everett's retirement.

Also considering the race is state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks, a strong statewide vote-getter who was recruited but ultimately passed on challenging Republican Sen. Jeff Sessions next year. "I need to take time to look at the situation," Sparks said.

Seven active duty Army personnel participated in uniform at a McCain campaign event this month -- in apparent violation of Defense Department rules that prohibit uniformed personnel from engaging in such political activity, today's Boston Globe reports.

A DOD spokesman appeared to confirm to the paper that the soldiers were in violation. But the key to the story is this interview with one of the participants:

In a brief interview after the event, Sergeant First Class Chad Kozdra, the commanding officer at the recruiting station, said he had been approached days earlier about participating in the event by the McCain campaign.

He said he supported McCain and had done so in 2000.

"What they were told is that this was a support-the-troops barbecue," not a campaign appearance, said Paul Boyce, a US Army public affairs officer.

In fact, the Globe reports, the rally was part of McCain's "No Surrender" tour of early-primary states, despite the soldiers having been told that this was a "support-the-troops" barbeque.

In other words, it looks as if the McCain campaign induced these soldiers into a situation where they were in violation of DOD regs. A McCain spokesperson denied to The Globe that this was intended as a political event, but an expert in military affairs told the paper that it was a clear violation.

• The transcript of last night's Republican debate on PBS is available here.

• With the top four Republicans skipping this debate, which was dedicated to minority issues, viewers got a great chance to check out the second tier (Mike Huckabee and Sam Brownback), the third tier (Ron Paul, Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo), and — skipping the vacant fifth and sixth tiers — the seventh tier (Alan Keyes).

• Overall, Huckabee really shined in this environment, and was in many ways the real winner of the event.

• The six candidate who showed up all lambasted the no-shows to various degrees, with Mike Huckabee saying he was "ashamed" of the Republican Party for this, and Ron Paul quipping that he was there for the simple reason that he was invited, and he's glad to show up where people invite him. Sam Brownback offered black voters offended by the no-shows an easy way to get back at them: Register Republican, and vote in their primary for one of the six candidate who did show up.

• Right off the bat, talk-radio host Tom Joyner got in a jab at the four Republican no-shows. "And let me take a moment right here and now to say hello to those of you viewing from home," Joyner said. "Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Senator John McCain. Governor Mitt Romney. And Senator Fred Thompson. Well, you know, I had to call them out."

• This might shock some readers, but Tom Tancredo argued that he was the most racially progressive among them, on the question of showing up for debates: "I must admit to you that it is pleasurable and a little bit different to be in this kind of an environment with my colleagues who are here, because the last time I was at an event of this nature, it was the NAACP convention and I was the only Republican that showed up."

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The Dem denunciations of Rush Limbaugh for saying that antiwar troops are "phony soldiers" are coming fast and furious now. We've just received a statement from antiwar Dem Rep. Patrick Murphy, an Iraq war vet himself:

“Someone should tell chicken-hawk Rush Limbaugh that the only phonies are those who choose not to serve and then criticize those who do. I served proudly, so did two of my fellow paratroopers in the 82nd Airborne who spoke out and died just weeks ago. Generations of American veterans have worn the uniform with pride and we know it is no contradiction to serve your country and still disagree with the Bush-civilian leadership that mismanaged this war.”

The fellow paratroopers who died that Murphy refers to are the authors of the Times Op ed questioning the war who were killed in Iraq after their piece appeared.

As we reported earlier today over at The Horse's Mouth, Rush Limbaugh said on his radio show that soldiers who favor U.S. withdrawal from Iraq are "phony soldiers."

The assertion -- reminiscent of MoveOn's attack on Petraeus, which generated enormous controversy when Republicans attacked the group -- has the potential to be equally explosive, since some troops who are currently fighting in Iraq, and a handful who have died there, have questioned the war in the media.

Now Dems are stepping forward to blast his remark. First up: the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Here's the statement just released by DCCC chief Chris Van Hollen:

“Rush Limbaugh’s personal attack on our men and women in uniform is reprehensible. It minimizes the sacrifice our troops in Iraq and their families are making and has no place in the public discourse. Rush Limbaugh owes our military and their families an apology for his hurtful comments that minimize their service to our country.”

We have a feeling that more will be coming on this. We have lots more on Rush's radio appearance right here.

Late Update: Here's John Kerry's statement:

"This disgusting attack from Rush Limbaugh, cheerleader for the Chicken Hawk wing of the far right, is an insult to American troops. In a single moment on his show, Limbaugh managed to question the patriotism of men and women in uniform who have put their lives on the line and many who died for his right to sit safely in his air conditioned studio peddling hate. On August 19th, The New York Times published an op-ed by seven members of the U.S. Army's 82nd Airborne Division critical of George Bush's Iraq policy. Two of those soldiers were killed earlier this month in Baghdad. Does Mr. Limbaugh dare assert that these heroes were 'phony soldiers'? Mr. Limbaugh owes an apology to everyone who has ever worn the uniform of our country, and an apology to the families of every soldier buried in Arlington National Cemetery. He is an embarrassment to his Party, and I expect the Republicans who flock to his microphone will now condemn this indefensible statement."

Note the reference to the dead soldiers who authored that Times Op ed against the war, as well as the demand that GOPers condemn Rush for his remark.

Later Update: Looks like the Dems are determined to make a major issue of this. Rep. Frank Pallone was just on the House floor blasting Rush. He asked whether all the GOPers who condemned MoveOn will hold Rush to the same standard, concluding: "Don't hold your breath."

Even Later Update: Here's Dem Rep Patrick Murphy, an Iraq war vet himself, in a statement sent to us moments ago:

“Someone should tell chicken-hawk Rush Limbaugh that the only phonies are those who choose not to serve and then criticize those who do. I served proudly, so did two of my fellow paratroopers in the 82nd Airborne who spoke out and died just weeks ago. Generations of American veterans have worn the uniform with pride and we know it is no contradiction to serve your country and still disagree with the Bush-civilian leadership that mismanaged this war.”

CQ Politics has just unveiled a new batch of ratings of the 2008 House races, and things are shaping up favorably for Dems. Here are CQ's key conclusions:

* The Republicans are the defending party in more districts (28) than the Democrats (22).

* Of 28 mildly competitive districts, 16 seats are Republican-held seats and 12 are Democratic-held.

* Of the eight races CQ currently rates as toss-ups, six are held by Republicans, including four incumbents who have left their seats open to retire: Rick Renzi of Arizona’s 1st District; Jerry Weller of Illinois’ 11th; Jim Ramstad of Minnesota’s 3rd; and Deborah Pryce of Ohio’s 15th.

History dictates that a party taking the majority with a win as big as last year's generally heads into the next election on the defensive. That doesn't appear to be happening here. CQ concludes: "The Democrats have more opportunities in the 2008 elections to expand their newly minted majority in the U.S. House than the Republicans have to whittle the Democrats’ edge in seats." As Kos notes, CQ's analysis demonstrates very clearly that Dems have the momentum right now.

CQ's full analysis here.

Below we noted that the Quad City Times had quoted Michelle Obama saying that if her husband doesn't win Iowa, it's all over. But it looks like she didn't say this, after all. The campaign has sent out the following transcript of her actual remarks:

“Iowa will make the difference. If Barack doesn't win Iowa, it's just a dream, but if we win Iowa, then we can move the world as it should be. And we need your help in making that happen so join me."

Not the same at all, obviously.

John Edwards has become the first top-tier candidate to accept public financing, which would have the benefit of making up to $21 million available to his campaign in the form of federal matching funds.

On the other hand, it will limit him to $50 million in total spending for the primary season, as well as limits in each state — regardless of whether or not those states are judged to be more politically important. If he were to win the primaries, those limits would apply all the way up to the Democratic National Convention, leaving him potentially vulnerable to increased attack ads and thus more dependent on outside groups to run ads on his behalf.

"This is not about a money calculation," Edwards told CNN. "This is about taking a stand, a principled stand, and I believe in public financing."

However, it should be noted that Edwards' fundraising has lagged far behind both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama — and he is now challenging them to also opt into public financing in order to prove their support for it.

A new Research 2000 poll, commissioned by Daily Kos, shows Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) ahead of Democratic candidate Rick Noriega 51%-35%. On the surface this looks encouraging, in that the incumbent just barely breaks 50% support against an unknown opponent, and has an anemic re-elect number of 40%, with 35% wanting somebody else.

On the other hand, one has to wonder if Texas is a Republican counterpart to New Jersey, where the voters routinely dislike their politicians but nevertheless continue to re-elect Democratic incumbents. Even if Texas Republicans are unpopular, could they still win?

John Edwards' associations with hedge fund Fortress Investment Group keep coming back to bite him. It now turns out that Fortress companies foreclosed on sub-prime mortgage borrowers in Iowa — 107 of them, to be exact — while Edwards worked with the firm.

This is on top of earlier reports that Fortress-owned companies were foreclosing on sub-prime borrowers in New Orleans, a place that Edwards has put at the center of his anti-poverty agenda. The publicity from that caused Edwards to divest himself of his Fortress holdings.

Edwards told the Des Moines Register that he did not know about the Iowa foreclosures until they told him about it. "If you look at the context of everything I've done since the last election, it's absolutely clear where my heart is and what I care about," he said.

Bob Kerrey tells the local press in Nebraska that he's "excited" about running for the Senate seat of retiring Chuck Hagel.

But is he actually going to run? He still won't say, and won't say when he'll say, either. National Dems, of course, are desperate for him to run because he'd have a very clear shot at flipping Hagel's seat to blue, having been a Senator in the state before.

One thing leaning him against a run, Kerrey tells the Ohama World-Herald, is that he would have to move his wife and six-year-old son Henry all over the country -- first back to Nebraska for his Senate run, and then to D.C. should he win. "To make this work, we would have to relocate Henry twice," he says.

Hillary has just picked up an endorsement from Meathead. You know, Archie Bunker's nemesis on All In The Family -- a.k.a. film director Rob Reiner.

Reiner's endorsement of Hillary took place earlier today. It's actually a key get, Reiner being a high-profile liberal activist in Hollywood -- where Obama had threatened for awhile to cut into her turf until she reestablished her dominance out there.

Last night Hillary got a lot of attention when she declared her opposition to legalized torture even in extreme "ticking bomb" situations, asserting that she believes we need to adhere to an anti-torture policy under all circumstances.

This has prompted some people to point out that back in October of last year, Hillary outlined her openness to writing torture exceptions into law in an interview with the Daily News. If you want to hear audio of that interview, Ben Smith has it right here.

Now the Hillary campaign has responded to questions about the apparent contradiction -- and Hillary is reiterating her opposition to any pro-torture exceptions. Hillary spokesperson Phil Singer sends us the following statement:

Upon reflection and after meeting with former Generals and others, Senator Clinton does not believe that we should be making narrow exceptions to this policy based on hypothetical scenarios.

This policy, of course, being the no-torture policy that Hillary said she'd adhere to last night and that she's reiterating her fealty to here. So now she's solid on the issue.

The Senate voted 60-39 today — just enough votes for cloture against a threatened Republican filibuster — to attach the hate crimes bill to the Defense Authorization bill, expanding current hate crimes protections to include sexual orientation.

All 51 Democratic Senators voted for the bill, along with nine Republicans: John Warner (VA), Richard Lugar (IN), Susan Collins (ME), Olympia Snowe (ME), George Voinovich (OH), Arlen Specter (PA), Norm Coleman (MN), Judd Gregg (NH), and Gordon Smith (OR).

And among the 39 Republicans who voted No were David Vitter of Louisiana, plus Idaho's Larry Craig. And finally, John McCain missed the vote.

Late Update: This post accidentally said that 48 Republicans voted no. Rather, 48 total Republicans voted, with John McCain absent and nine more voting with the Dems.

Michelle Obama, speaking out with surprising candor in the Quad City Times:

“Iowa will make the difference,” Obama said. “If Barack doesn’t win Iowa it is over.”

As Ben Smith notes, this is blunter than candidates usually are about the importance of Iowa -- even, I'd add, when they're in full Iowa-suck-up mode.

A new poll from Rasmussen puts a crimp in the argument that Hillary is unelectable in a national general election, finding that she enjoys a sizable national lead over Rudy:

Clinton 48%

Giuliani 43%

She fares even better against Fred Thompson:

Clinton 48%

Thompson 41%

Rasmussen holds this up as proof that Hillary's "surging," pointing out that two weeks ago, Hillary's lead over Rudy was a statistically insignificant one point. "Prior to that, Clinton had held an advantage over Giuliani only once in fourteen consecutive Rasmussen Reports polls," Rasmussen says, theorizing that her gains are largely due to the good reception that greeted her recently announced health care plan.

A new poll shows former Nebraska Governor and outgoing U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns with a massive lead in the Republican primary, according to the Lincoln Journal Star.

Johanns leads with 58%, followed by state Attorney General Jon Bruning at 16%, and former Omaha Mayor Haul Daub trailing with 12%. In an earlier poll, commissioned by Bruning, Johanns led by a much smaller margin: 39% to Bruning's 30% in a head-to-head race.

Johanns will formally enter the race in about two weeks, according to the report. Democrats are still awaiting a final decision from former Senator Bob Kerrey, who is considering a bid, but has sent out some signals that he may take a pass on the race.

Dennis Hastert is dismissing rumors that he will resign early and trigger a special election to coincide with the presidential primary. Hastert suggests that while he is still undecided on whether he'll complete his term, his resignation would be timed in such a way as to make a special election unnecessary. "I don’t see a primary before the primary," Hastert said.

An early special election in this district would give an advantage to self-funding candidates Jim Oberweis, a Republican dairy magnate who has run unsuccessfully in several statewide Republican primaries, and Democrat Bill Foster, a physicist and businessman. While the district has tilted Republican in the past, Democrats are hoping that an exodus of Chicago voters to the suburban 14th district could provide the right conditions for an upset.

John McCain's campaign is rolling out a major ad campaign in New Hampshire this weekend, with ads highlighting the Senator's life story.

"We've made assumptions that voters know the story, when in fact they don't," McCain advisor Mark McKinnon told reporters on a conference call, explaining that the story is common knowledge mostly among those who are already heavily tuned into politics.

He added, "It was important for us to get out and retell that story, or tell that story for the first time for so many people who haven't heard it."

The 30-second ad, entitled "Live Free," pitches McCain as the man who can fix the many problems in Washington:

The 60-second ad, "One Man," which is not specific to New Hampshire, focuses on McCain's story as a prisoner of war:

And finally, the McCain camp has a radio ad for New Hampshire, too, called "Courage," essentially a radio version of the 60-second ad:

"Rudy Giuliani doesn't know what the heck he's talking about. He's the most uninformed person in American foreign policy that's now running for president."

-- Joe Biden at last night's debate, lambasting the idea that Rudy's tenure as Mayor of New York in the aftermath of 9/11 constitutes foreign policy or counter-terrorism experience.

The new Florida poll from GOP firm Strategic Vision shows Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani continuing to enjoy healthy leads in their respective primaries:

Democrats:
Clinton 44%
Obama 22%
Edwards 12%

Republicans:
Giuliani 35%
Thompson 24%
Romney 9%
McCain 6%

Fred Thompson appears to be consolidating a degree of conservative support, as he has in many Southern states, but Rudy still takes the lead here.

Republican polling firm Strategic Vision released a new survey of the Iowa caucuses:

Democrats:
Clinton 24%
Edwards 22%
Obama 21%
Richardson 13%

Republicans:
Romney 30%
Giuliani 17%
Thompson 13%
Huckabee 8%
McCain 6%

Romney remains the frontrunner on the Republican side, but it's still a wide open race for the Democrats.

Here's an interesting tidbit from yesterday's Larry Craig hearing that has gone largely unnoticed. At one point, Craig's lawyer, Billy Martin, denied that his client had done anything improper in that men's room, and then went on to offer his view of what needs to occur in situations like that for it to constitute a sexual overture:

"You should have either touching, or words, or a combination of the two."

In other words, because there was no exchange of touch or words, no sexual advance occurred. So argued Larry Craig's lawyer, anyway.

• Last night's Democratic debate featured a lot of sharp barbs and serious questions — from Tim Russert. As for the candidates, it was the usual sort of debate with very little actual attacks between them, and a seeming attitude that this was a collection of eight simultaneous but separate auditions.

• In the MSNBC spin room coverage, the consensus seemed to be that Hillary Clinton did well — at least, she did not do badly — and Barack Obama came across as flat, overtaken rhetorically by John Edwards.

• None of the top three Dems would commit to removing all American troops from Iraq by January 2013, the end of the next president's first term. Hillary, Edwards and Obama instead committed themselves to drawing down troops in various degrees, with some force left behind for combatting terrorism and securing U.S. interests.

• Edwards lambasted Hillary Clinton's vote for the Kyl-Lieberman amendment, which called Iran's military a terrorist organization. "I voted for this war in Iraq, and I was wrong to vote for this war and I accept responsibility for that," Edward said. "Senator Clinton also voted for this war. We learned a very different lesson from that. I have no intention of giving George Bush the authority to take the first step on a road to war with Iran."

• Joe Biden got off one of the best applause lines of the night, in response to a Rudy Giuliani quote about Iran: "Rudy Giuliani doesn't know what the heck he's talking about. He's the most uninformed person in American foreign policy that's now running for president."

More after the jump.

Read more »

A quick reminder: The Democratic candidates are debating tonight in New Hampshire. Tune in to MSNBC at 9 p.m. ET, and watch the fun.

And in a sneak preview, Joe Biden will reportedly make sure to mention his victory in the Senate today, where a non-binding endorsement of his plan to partition Iraq was passed by an overwhelming 75-23 vote.

In addition, an ad will run during the debate from the California Nurses Association and the National Nurses Organizing Committee, attacking the top three candidates from the left. The spot will blast Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards for having health plans that rely upon private health insurance companies, rather than abolishing private health care and putting everyone in a single-payer system.

The McCain campaign has picked up a supporter in New Hampshire who already has some media exposure for bashing Mitt Romney.

Mark Riss, a New Hampshire resident whose son has served in Iraq, got a chance to criticize Romney on camera during a recent Fox News debate, citing Romney's comparison of his sons' work on his campaign to troops serving in Iraq. Now Riss has joined the McCain campaign as a co-chairman of the New Hampshire Military Families for McCain Coalition.

And Riss' wife Deb has said Romney's performance at that debate, and his response to their complaint, helped make up their mind. "How is he going to lead our military?" she asked defiantly.

Prospective candidates are lining up for the seat of Congressman Jim Ramstad, who recently announced his retirement. The seat is a swing area that voted for President Bush by a mere three-point margin in 2004, so expect a lot of money to be spent here now that Bush has become amazingly unpopular and there is no long-time incumbent to hold it down.

The only declared candidate thus far is Democratic state Senator Terri Bonoff, who in a 2005 special election won a seat from Ramstad's historically Republican hometown of Minnetonka, and was re-elected in 2006. If Bonoff runs for Congress and loses, she will still have her state Senate job. State Senator Steve Simon and state Representative Melissa Hortman are also looking at the race.

On the Republican side, state Senator Geoff Michel and state Representative Erik Paulsen are regarded as being the potential frontrunners, but other Republicans are also looking at the race, and a lot could change.

Rudy has fired his top fundraiser, replacing him with a top rainmaker for President Bush. The axing of his leading money person is prompting murmurs that perhaps Rudy is unhappy with his campaign's latest haul in advance of Sunday's filing deadline.

Of course, if Rudy is suffering money woes, perhaps it's merely a sign that if you want to be competitive these days, you need to raise money in increments larger than $9.11.

A 2006 House candidate who came close to knocking off a Republican incumbent has now ended her 2008 campaign for the seat.

Former Colorado state Representative Angie Paccione, who lost to right-wing Congresswoman Marilyn Musgrave in a 46%-43% race, had declared her new campaign late in the Spring, but dropped out of the race today.

This leaves two candidates for the Democratic nomination: Betsy Markey, the establishment favorite and a former aide to U.S. Senator Ken Salazar; and Eric Eidsness, a former Reagan Administration official who ran in 2006 as the Reform Party candidate, but recently switched to the Dems. Markey is heavily favored to win the nomination.

Remember a few weeks back when Larry Craig's office said he would resign his Senate seat by September 30 if his guilty plea weren't overturned by then?

Well, forget all that -- Craig is staying.

In the wake of the news today that the judge on the case won't be ruling on whether his guilty plea can be withdrawn until late next week at the latest -- that is to say, well after September 30 -- Craig has just confirmed that he's staying put:

"Today was a major step in the legal effort to clear my name," Craig said in a statement. "The court has not issued a ruling on my motion to withdraw my guilty plea. For now, I will continue my work in the U.S. Senate for Idaho."

A newspaper is apologizing for an ad-rate error in the MoveOn "Betray Us" controversy — and it isn't The New York Times.

The Minnespolis Star Tribune has now admitted that they charged Republican Senator Norm Coleman too little when he took out a full-page ad bashing the MoveOn piece and attacking Al Franken for not distancing himself from it. The paper charged Coleman only $23,000, when the rate should have been $37,000.

"A new sales rep made a mistake and gave the Coleman campaign a rate from the local retail rate card, rather than the national rate card," said Benjamin Taylor, the paper's senior vice president for communications and marketing. "We only discovered the mistake when the Franken campaign complained."

In order to correct the situation, the paper is refunding Franken's campaign $12,165 from a full-page ad they took out two months ago — less than the rate error in Coleman's case, but adjusted for the different days when their respective spots were printed.

Mitt Romney has enjoyed a healthy lead in most New Hampshire polls, but the new one from CNN shows him and Rudy locked in a dead heat.

Romney leads with 25% to Rudy's 24%, a statistically insignificant margin, followed by John McCain at 18% and Fred Thompson at 13%.

Back in July, Romney had a more than significant lead of 14 points in CNN polling, with 33% support to Rudy's 18%. McCain is up six points since then, and Thompson's support is unchanged.

CNN is now reporting that a ruling on Larry Craig's request to withdraw his wide stance guilty plea isn't due until the "end of next week, at the earliest."

This is a big deal, because Craig's office has indicated that he would officially resign on Sept. 30 if his guilty plea weren't overturned by then. We now know, of course, that the ruling will come later than that.

So what will Craig do come the 30th? Despite the earlier indication of his self-imposed September 30 deadline, he refused to say late yesterday what he would end up doing. So we'll all just have to wait and see. Craig is expected to clarify his plans later today.

Yet another Republican has decided to hang up his spurs. Rep. Terry Everett (R-AL) confirmed months of speculation today by announcing his retirement.

Everett is the ninth House Republican set to retire next year. But unlike the recent retirements of Reps. Jerry Weller (IL) and Jim Ramstad (MN), who are from moderate districts, Everett's district should be much safer territory for the GOP to defend — it delivered roughly two-thirds of its votes to President Bush in 2004.

This one came out of nowhere: The House of Representatives, which of course enjoys a much larger Dem majority than the Senate, just voted overwhelmingly to condemn MoveOn for its ad criticizing General Petraeus. The vote was 341-179.

As late as this morning, it was unclear whether the House Dem leadership was going to even allow a vote on the measure. The leadership, however, was coming under conservative criticism for not taking up the measure -- and now, obviously, it has done just that.

An astonishing number of House Dems -- 146 -- voted to condemn the antiwar group, versus only 79 who didn't. That's two-thirds of House Dems voting for this thing. No Republicans voted against it.

The vote drew a sharp response from MoveOn chief Eli Pariser: "It is unconscionable and outrageous that instead of doing the people's work and ending this war, Congress chooses meaningless and distracting gestures."

Late Update: A House aide writes in to say that the Dem leadership did not in fact allow this vote. Rather, it was forced by a GOP procedural maneuver:

"Democrats had given no signal of allowing a vote, but using a `motion to recommit' procedural motion, which they are automatically allowed on every bill and which does not need to be announced beforehand, Republicans forced a vote to attach the language to the continuing resolution that funds the government as a stop gap while the Senate passes the final appopriations bills."

A sizable majority of Senate Democrats, 30 in all, voted for the Kyl-Lieberman Iran amendment -- a measure which, while stripped of its most bellicose language, nonetheless seeks to designate the Iran Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization. Only 20 voted against it.

The vote, obviously, was a far easier one for Republicans, all but two of whom backed the measure.

We have a full list of Dems who supported the measure -- and Dems who opposed it -- after the jump.

Read more »

Joe Biden won a victory in the Senate today, with the chamber voting 75-23 for a non-binding endorsement of his plan to partition Iraq into three separate states with Baghdad as a federal capital.

Nearly all Democrats voted for the measure, with only two exceptions: Barack Obama missed the vote, and Russ Feingold voted against it. The Dems were joined by 26 Republicans voting in favor of the plan.

The Kyl-Lieberman Iran amendment -- which ratchets up the confrontation with Iran by calling for the designation of its Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization responsible for killing U.S. troops -- just passed overwhelmingly, 76-22.

Of the Dem Presidential candidates, Hillary voted for the measure, Joe Biden and Chris Dodd opposed it, and Barack Obama missed the vote. On the GOP side, John McCain missed the vote.

The bill's backers had tried to mollify its critics by taking out some of its most incendiary language, particularly the idea that "it should be the policy of the United States to combat, contain, and roll back the violent activities and destabilizing influence inside Iraq of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran, its foreign facilitators such as Lebanese Hezbollah, and its indigenous Iraqi proxies."

Also removed from the measure was a provision "to support the prudent and calibrated use of all instruments of United States national power in Iraq, including diplomatic, economic, intelligence, and military instruments" in support of the above.

One leading critic, Jim Webb, however, still opposed the bill because it designates the Iran guard a terrorist organization. Nonetheless, it was able to pass overwhelmingly.

We'll bring you the exact language of the amendment when it's available.

Late Update: You can read a copy of the actual legislation here in our TPM Document Collection.

Also added to the final version was this conciliatory-sounding language:

"Secretary of Defense Robert Gates stated on September 16, 2007 that "I think that the administration believes at this point that continuing to try and deal with the Iranian threat, the Iranian challenge, through diplomatic and economic means is by the preferable approach. That the one we are using. We always say all options are on the table, but clearly, the diplomatic and economic approach is the one that we are pursuing."

In the end, though, the amendment says this:

"the United States should designate Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps as a foreign terrorist organization...and place the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps on the list of Specially Designated Global Terrorists."

Voting's underway on the Kyl-Lieberman Iran amendment -- and Hillary just voted Aye.

Apparently the bill's backers sought to mollify its critics by taking out some of its most incendiary language, particularly the idea that "it should be the policy of the United States to combat, contain, and roll back the violent activities and destabilizing influence inside Iraq of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran, its foreign facilitators such as Lebanese Hezbollah, and its indigenous Iraqi proxies."

Webb, however, still opposes the bill because it designates the Iran guard a terrorist organization.

More soon.

According to Harry Reid's office, a Senate vote on the Kyl-Lieberman Iran amendment has been scheduled for today. It will likely come in the next hour.

We'll bring you a copy of the final amendment's language as soon as we get it. The measure, in essence, accuses Iran of fighting a proxy war against coalition forces in Iraq and threatens to combat Iran's efforts. Meanwhile, yesterday's TPMtv episode on the amendment is here.

Late Update: Senator Jim Webb is still unhappy with the legislation. Yesterday he complained that the amendment designated the Iranian guard a terrorist organization. According to Joe Lieberman, who just spoke on the Senate floor, the amendment still does that. And Webb, who's speaking on the floor now, says he still opposes it.

Joe Biden's underdog campaign is reportedly putting it all on Iowa, with his senior national staff being trasnfered almost entirely to the caucus state. His sister and lead surrogate, Valerie Biden Owens, will be spending 90% of her time between now and the caucus.

Biden currently has nine state legislative endorsements in Iowa, behind only Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, but he has remained invisible in the polls there despite that support. Biden's hope is that his three-state plan for Iraq could catch on in a state with very strong anti-war sentiment, on the argument that it is the best chance for a safe pullout from the country.

So will Larry Craig resign on September 30, as promised, if his guilty isn't overturned by then? He's now refusing to say:

Idaho Republican Sen. Larry Craig declined to say Tuesday whether he would resign his seat as planned if his guilty plea stemming from a Minneapolis bathroom sex sting is not overturned this week.

“We are waiting for the legal determinations and I have nothing more to say,” Craig told reporters Tuesday.

The senator would not comment on what he would do if the court case were not decided by Sunday, the original date of his planned resignation from the Senate.

Which is odd, because his own spokesperson explicitly said that if his plea weren't overturned by September 30, he would in fact step down.

A couple days back we brought you the news that GOP House leader John Boehner was locked in a power struggle with NRCC chief Tom Cole over the direction of the NRCC, amid signs that the committee's strategists were in deep denial over just how bad the 2008 map looks for the GOP. Boehner was moving to oust two strategists he deemed responsible for the problems.

Well, now it looks as if Boehner has backed down from his confrontation with Cole. Temporarily, anyway. Many Republicans are still saying that the financial and political problems run so deep at the NRCC that more public feuding is all but inevitable. Full story here.

A new SurveyUSA poll shows the Democrats doing well in Wisconsin, a state that has tended to vote narrowly for the Dem presidential nominee:

Clinton (D) 48%, Giuliani (R) 44%
Clinton (D) 47%, Thompson (R) 45%
Clinton (D) 50%, Romney (R) 41%
Obama (D) 46%, Giuliani (R) 43%
Obama (D) 48%, Thompson (R) 43%
Obama (D) 52%, Romney (R) 37%
Giuliani (R) 45%, Edwards (D) 44%
Edwards (D) 49%, Thompson (R) 40%
Edwards (D) 52%, Romney (R) 34%

The Republicans are ahead in only one of the nine match-ups, though many of these results are within the margin of error.

A key Iowa blogger is alleging that Hillary has fallen way behind Barack Obama and John Edwards in visits to the state, and has visited far fewer counties than her Dem rivals.

Chase Martyn observes that Hillary has held about 60 events in total in Iowa, compared to Edwards' 120 and Obama's 100. In addition, she has visited only 29 of Iowa's 99 counties, compared to over 50 for Barack Obama and even more from John Edwards.

"Relying on events one county away to lure activists from the counties above may work for recruiting VIPs," Martyn writes, "but many Iowans may not feel the need to drive an hour to see Clinton when Obama showed up in their town square."

Looks like Senator Pete Domenici's (R-NM) expressions of doubt about Bush's Iraq policies have done nothing to stop the steep slide in his approval rating.

A new poll by Survey USA finds that he's plummeted deep into the below-50% danger zone for incumbents -- the survey finds that his approval rating has dropped to 41%. That's an astonishing 27% drop in the last 10 months.

Domenici has distanced himself from Bush's Iraq policies but has failed to cast a single vote for legislation that would force a change in them. That and the hit he took amid the Attorney Purge scandal have left him increasingly vulnerable as he prepares to seek reelection next year, though he doesn't have a credible opponent.

The White House made a mistake that will just feed more of the perceptions about President Bush's problems with the English language — accidentally releasing to the press his prepared remarks before the United Nations, including phonetic pronunciation guides for the president to follow.

A guide was given not only for an admittedly tough one like Kyrgyzstan ("KEYR-geez-stan"), but also for Nicolas Sarkozy ("sar-KO-zee"), which seems pretty simple to pronounce as it is.

It's not at all unusual for a leader to use pronunciation guides, but having them in circulation must be pretty embarrassing. As the Times of London noted, the prepared speech did not include a phonetic guide for the name of Aung San Suu Kyi — and Bush predictably stumbled over that one.

Late Update: White House Press Secretary Dana Perino lambasted a question about the president's apparent difficulties with some of these words. “I think that’s a offensive question," Perino said. "I’m going to just decline to comment on it."

The expectations game for third-quarter fundraising is now making its way into the press, during this final week of the quarter. Bloomberg reports that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are both expected to take in around $20 million for the period, with the possibility that Obama could lose the fundraising edge he held over Hillary for the first two quarters.

"The Clinton juggernaut is moving if she out-raises him this quarter," said Democratic strategist Peter Fenn, who is not affiliated with any of the presidential campaigns. "It makes the argument for her winnability an easier one."

A new Quinnipiac poll in New Jersey finds Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani with huge leads in their primaries. Hillary leads the Democratic field with 46%, followed by Barack Obama at 15%. Among Republicans, Rudy Giuliani has 45% to Fred Thompson's 12%. The general election match-ups show that Rudy or John McCain could make it a close race in the Democratic state, but that Fred Thompson or Mitt Romney would lose in landslides:

Giuliani (R) 45%, Clinton (D) 44%
Giuliani (R) 49%, Obama (D) 40%
Giuliani (R) 50%, Edwards (D) 39%
Clinton (D) 46%, McCain (R) 41%
Obama (D) 44%, McCain (R) 41%
Edwards (D) 44%, McCain (R) 40%
Clinton (D) 48%, Thompson (R) 36%
Obama (D) 49%, Thompson (R) 34%
Edwards (D) 48%, Thompson (R) 34%
Clinton (D) 52%, Romney (R) 33%
Obama (D) 51%, Romney (R) 31%
Edwards (D) 51%, Romney (R) 30%

Former Congressman Hal Daub (R) is the first candidate on the air in the Nebraska Senate race, with this spot running in a $30,000 statewide ad buy:

Daub could soon be facing some major opposition in the primary — it is widely expected that former Governor Mike Johanns will run, and state attorney general Jon Bruning and businessman Pat Flynn are already in the GOP race. So it makes sense for Daub to get on the air early.

Now that The New York Times has said that it erred in charging MoveOn a lower price for its ad attacking General Petraeus, the antiwar group is sending the paper a check to make up the difference. So will Rudy's campaign -- which got a similarly discounted rate for its ad in the paper the next day responding to MoveOn -- do the same?

That's the question being asked by blogger Lane Hudson, who has filed a complaint with the FEC alleging that Rudy's failure to pony up constitutes a violation of campaign finance law. You can read Hudson's complaint here at The Huffington Post.

Campaign 2008 has its first TV ad starring bloggers. Others have already posted it, but check out Bill Richardson's new TV ad featuring Matt Stoller and Chris Bowers of OpenLeft, and Christina Siun O'Connell of Firedoglake:

The new ad, which prompted a fair amount of grumbling in other Dem Presidential campaigns today, showcases Richardson's insistence on leaving no residual force behind in Iraq, a heavily debated topic in the liberal blogosphere.

Woah -- Hillary has pulled way ahead of Obama in the key state of New Hampshire, and now enjoys a 23-point lead over her rival, a poll just released by CNN finds.

The survey finds that Hillary is supported by 43%, compared to 20% for Obama, 12% for Edwards, and six percent for Richardson.

A CNN poll taken in the state in July found Hillary with only a nine-point lead. The 14-point jump in her lead is due to Hillary rising seven points and Obama dropping the same amount. What's more, perceptions of Hillary's "electability" have jumped significantly: 54% of respondents think she's the Dem most likely to win in November 2008, while only 37% thought that in July.

Still, only 15% of respondents find her most likeable, significantly less than both Obama and Edwards.

Mitt Romney spokesman Kevin Madden appeared on MSNBC today and confirmed that Cofer Black, head of Blackwater USA, will stay on as an advisor to the Romney campaign:

Blackwater USA, as you may know, is a controversial military contracting group that has been asked by the Iraqi government to leave the country due to alleged violence towards innocent civilians by their mercenaries.

"Cofer Black is a renowned expert on counter-terrorism and intelligence issues. He is an advisor to this campaign — he advises the governor on a host of issues related to counter-terrorism and intelligence policy," Madden said. "All the details and all the incidents that have to do with Blackwater USA, I'm entirely unfamiliar with. I think those are questions that have to be answered outside the purview of a campaign, and instead by a private company."

Rudy, who first unveiled this rationale for his gun shifts in last week's speech to the NRA, says it again and expands a bit on it:

"You have to look at all of these issues in light of the different concerns that now exist, which is terrorism, the terrorists' war on us," the Republican presidential contender told The Associated Press in an interview.

He added that his thinking also was influenced by a federal appeals court's decision this year to overturn a 30-year-old ban on private ownership of handguns in Washington.

"It is a very, very strong description of how important personal liberties are in this country and how we have to respect them," he said of the ruling.

"I think, after September 11 -- I mean I probably would have had the same impression before, I'm not sure -- but after September 11, all that seemed much more powerful to me," Giuliani said.

We're a bit lost here. Last time Rudy talked about his 9/11-sparked shift, it appeared to be largely about personal safety and security. This time the emphasis is on how 9/11 served as a reminder of the sanctity of individual rights -- like gun rights.

Quick side note: The fact that Rudy once called the NRA "extremists" -- a story first broken here on this blog -- has really entered the Rudy media narrative, appearing in lots and lots of stories about Rudy and guns.

It's health care, stupid.

With a House vote on expanding S-Chip set for this afternoon, a new poll out from the Dem firm Democracy Corps (no link yet) concludes that the battle over the children's health care program is shaping up as a very costly one for Republicans, one that could very well resonate in 2008 as voter concerns about health care soar:

Health care can emerge as the central economic battle of the 2008 election cycle. That is reflected in more and more people choosing health care as the top problem overall making it the top domestic concern. Voters concerns with health care remain primarily in the rising costs as well as in being sure they will always have access to quality care.

The battle over children’s health care, S-CHIP, has the chance to crystallize this issue to the great disadvantage of President Bush and the Republicans. Voters reject the President’s veto threat by almost two-to-one, preferring the expansion of insurance.

The poll finds that voters side with Dems on the issue by 60%-35%; that independents want the program expanded by a 34-point margin, 62%-28%; and that voters in Republican-held districts also overwhelmingly favor the expansion, 55%-39%.

Fueling these numbers, the poll finds, is an explosion in voter concern about the health care issue in general. In another ominous 2008 sign for the GOP, the survey says that the percentage of voters who see rising health care costs as a "very serious problem" has increased an astonishing 12 points in only the last two years. We'll bring you the full poll when it's on line.

Late Update: The full poll is here.

Here are the latest fundraising tallies, as of the end of September, from the Dem and Republican committees in charge of 2008 House races:

DCCC:

In the bank: $22.1 million

Debt: $3.1 million

Total: $19 million

NRCC:

In the bank: $1.6 million

Debt: $4 million

Total: -$2.4 million

Dems, $19 million; GOP, in the red.

Despite hard lobbying by John Edwards, the powerful Service Employees International Union has again delayed an endorsement decision, this time until October at the earliest. The decision practically guarantees the the Change To Win coalition, a new rival labor federation to the AFL-CIO, won't reach a super-majority needed to make an endorsement at this juncture in the primary campaign.

Edwards reportedly had majority support among board members in SEIU, but not enough to constitute the required 60% of the total union membership, when their support was weighted for the sizes of their locals.

The bottom line: Edwards remains strong with labor, but not quite strong enough to get some major endorsements — and he'll have to demonstrate more support in the polls if he wants to get over the top with them.

A new Gallup poll finds the Democratic Party's public image in much, much better shape than the Republicans'. The Dems have a 53% favorable rating and 43% unfavorable, compared to the GOP's dismal 38%-59% figure.

On the issues, the Dems are ahead, too. Asked which party would do a better job keeping the country prosperous, the Democrats holds a 54%-34% advantage over the Republicans. And when asked which party would do a better job protecting the country from terrorism and military threats, the Dems win 47%-42%, just barely inside the polls ±3 margin of error.

The reason? The GOP's favorability has tracked almost exactly with President Bush. Right now they're at 38% favorable, and he's at 36%, a statistically indistinguishable difference.

Chris Dodd's campaign has just uncorked the following statement in response to the news this morning that a Giuliani supporter is holding an unauthorized fundraiser designed to haul in $9.11 from each participant. From Dodd spokesperson Colleen Flannagan:

"Exploiting the September 11th attacks for fundraising purposes is absolutely unconscionable, shameless and sickening. Mr. Giuliani was quick to express much vitriol for the independent ad created by MoveOn.org last week; we would hope he would express the same kind of outrage and indignation about this group that he is the beneficiary of.

"Furthermore, Mr. Giuliani should reject and/or return any money raised and ask that their activities on his behalf stop immediately."

Thus far, of all the Presidential candidates only John Edwards -- and now Dodd -- have been willing to come out and say directly that Rudy is politically exploiting the terror attacks.

Last week we brought you word that GOP House leader John Boehner and NRCC chief Tom Cole were locked in a power struggle for control of the NRCC amid increasing signs that NRCC strategists are in denial about just how bad the 2008 map looks for them.

Now there's more. Top Republicans are conceding that the NRCC is all but broke and that another bloodletting is all but certain. As GOP Rep. Ray LaHood puts it with startling candor: “When you look at what’s going on in the House, the prospects for getting back on track are pretty dim at the moment."

Ouch.

Late Update: The latest numbers from the party committees tell the story:

"At the end of August, the National Republican Congressional Committee reported only $1.6 million cash on hand, with $4 million in debt. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, by comparison, had banked over $22 million, with only $3 million in debt."

In other words, the DCCC has around $19 million, while the NRCC is in the red.

The Supreme Court has agreed to hear arguments next year arguing the constitutionality of Voter ID laws, which require voters to show a photo identification at the polls. Interestingly enough, the challenge that the court will now be hearing comes not from the South, where many of these laws have been enacted (and challenged), but from Indiana.

The Indiana Democratic Party is challenging the law, arguing that it has an intentionally disproportionate effect on minority voters, many of whom tend to be poor and lack photo identification, and who vote heavily Democratic.

The Supreme Court will hear the case some time early next year, and should issue a decision around June — just in time for the 2008 election.

Is Ralph really gonna run again? Looks like he's threatening to do just that.

A new SurveyUSA poll shows that Virginia — a state that hasn't gone Democratic for president since 1964 — could be a Dem pick-up in 2008, with Republicans winning only one of nine match-ups:

Clinton (D) 50%, Giuliani (R) 44%
Clinton (D) 50%, Thompson (R) 43%
Clinton (D) 53%, Romney (R) 38%
Obama (D) 46%, Giuliani (R) 45%
Thompson (R) 47%, Obama (D) 45%
Obama (D) 50%, Romney (R) 38%
Edwards (D) 48%, Giuliani (R) 43%
Edwards (D) 49%, Thompson (R) 39%
Edwards (D) 52%, Romney (R) 33%

The margin of error is ±4.5%, so few of these leads are beyond the margin. It still says something, though, that polling here could even be close in the first place.

Another prominent Republican is criticizing the ongoing refusal of the GOP's frontrunners to attend minority debates.

Former Representative J.C. Watts, the most recent black Republican to serve in Congress, said the top four candidates are making a huge mistake in skipping Thursday's debate with Tavis Smiley — and he even speculated that they don't have any African-Americans as top staffers, who would tell them what a bad move this is.

Watts said their refusal to attend would leave black voters asking, "'Was it because of my skin color?' Now, maybe it wasn't, but African-Americans do say, 'It crossed my mind.'"

And Watts is not any sort of flaming liberal — during the 1990's, he famously described the Congressional Black Caucus as "race-hustling poverty pimps."

This should settle the question of whether Bill is an asset or liability to Hillary's campaign, shouldn't it?

Check out this question in the new Gallup poll:

Would you like to see Bill Clinton play an active role in policy-making in Hillary Clinton's administration, or not?

Yes, active role 53%

No, not active role 44%

Even more interesting, when asked whether they're worried about Bill's impact on a Hillary Presidency, an overwhelming number of voters -- two-thirds -- say that they just don't really think it matters at all:

Which would worry you more -- that Bill Clinton would not have a large enough role in Hillary Clinton's administration, that Bill Clinton would have too large a role in Hillary Clinton's administration, or does neither worry you very much?

Not large enough role 10%

Too large a role 22%

Neither worry you very much 66%

Somewhere, David Broder is grumbling.

Late Update: These numbers are from last week but were flagged by Gallup today. Also worth mentioning: We've never seen the questions asked this way before.

The National Rifle Association is a stalwart support of the Republican Party in presidential elections, but normally sits out the GOP primary season. However, the Washington Times reports that this could change this cycle.

"Historically, we have not gotten involved in primaries. We traditionally wait until after the conventions," said Chris Cox, head lobbyist for the NRA. "That being said, given the candidates and the process and the front-loading of the primaries, it is a possibility that we could get involved in one of these presidential primaries."

An overriding concern appears to be a need to stop Rudy Giuliani, who strongly supported gun control when he was mayor of New York City, and failed to impress the NRA at the Washington conference on Friday.

Barack Obama's campaign is employing an unusual method, for a Democrat, of grassroots campaigning in South Carolina: Bible studies. The campaign is launching a "40 Days of Faith and Family" campaign across the state, courting religious voters through Bible study sessions and gospel concerts.

The campaign bills the effort as "an opportunity for people of faith to come together, across racial and denominational lines, to talk about how they live their faith outside the four walls of the church, what they want to see from their presidential candidates and how Obama’s faith informs how he thinks about the issues of our time."

Late Update: The Obama campaign has clarified that they are not organizing Bible study groups themselves, but are looking to organize around existing Bible study groups in what they call "faith forums."

A new Quinnipiac poll has some mixed news for Senator Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ). On the one hand he has a 42% approval rating and 34% disapproval rating — actually quite good in a state known for disliking its politicians.

On the other hand, only 36% say he should be re-elected, with 46% saying he should not be re-elected, a number dangerously close to 50%. In a match-up with a hypothetical Republican candidate, Lautenberg has a lead of 39%-36%.

Quinnipiac also asked, "At age 83, do you think Frank Lautenberg is too old to effectively serve another 6 year term as United States Senator, or not?" This number is not too encouraging: 54% believe he is too old, compared to 40% who say he is not. Lautenberg could still turn that number around, though, if he is able to prove to the voters that is physically and mentally in good shape during next year's campaign.

Richard Land, president of the Southern Baptist Convention's Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission — and a Fred Thompson supporter — is defending Thompson from the attacks made against him by James Dobson:

"I’ve received phone calls and emails from Southern Baptists about Senator Thompson. They are all furious at Doctor Dobson. They just feel that first of all there was a mischaracterizing of his positions. Do I wish that he supported the marriage protection amendment? Of course I do. To say that he is for 50 different views of marriage in 50 different states is a gross mischaracterization of his position. Secondly, do I wish that he attended church every Sunday? As a Baptist pastor, of course I do. But does that make him a person of unbelief? That’s harsh and unwarranted."

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee continues to hold a strong financial advantage over the National Republican Senatorial Committee. The DSCC took in $2.6 million in August, compared to the NRSC's $2.4 million. So far this year, The DSCC has raised $36.7 million to the NRSC's $20.5 million.

The DSCC has $20.6 million cash on hand with $3.5 million in debts, and the NRSC has only $7.1 million on hand with no debts.

A Rudy Giuliani supporter has managed to create a 9/11 theme for a fundraising party that even the campaign doesn't like. For tomorrow's official campaign event of grassroots house parties across the country, Hoover Institution fellow Abraham Sofaer of Palo Alto, California, is asking for a suggested donation of $9.11.

"These are two volunteers who acted independently of and without the knowledge of the campaign," said Giuliani spokeswoman Maria Comella. "Their decision to ask individuals for that amount was an unfortunate choice."

Sofaer's invitation promotes the event as an "independent, non-denominational grass-roots campaign to raise $10,000 in small increments to show how many individual, everyday Americans support 'America's Mayor.'"

Hillary Clinton's campaign seems to have adopted a hardball tactic when it comes to bad press coverage. When the Hillary camp heard over the Summer about a GQ piece in the works that would have put their campaign organization in a bad light — talking about infighting among staffers — they decided to get the piece killed before it would see publication.

How did they do it? According to Ben Smith, they threatened to cut off the magazine's future access to Bill Clinton. And it worked — the piece was spiked.

Similar hardball maneuvers have been done elsewhere, but the comparisons aren't flattering. For example, Tom Cruise reportedly threatened Paramount Pictures that he would not do publicity for Mission: Impossible III unless Comedy Central — owned by Viacom, the same parent company as Paramount — stopped rerunning the infamous "Trapped In The Closet" episode of South Park.

The prosecutor in the Larry Craig case has just submitted a filing in response to Craig's request to withdraw his guilty plea -- and in it, the lawyer shares lots of juicy details about his private conversations with Craig as he sought to decide whether to plead guilty or to fight the charges against him.

You can read the response of the prosecutor, Christopher Renz, right here in our TPM Document Collection. In it, the prosecutor details his discussions with the embattled Senator. Among the relevations:

-- In response to Craig's questions as to what would happen if he pled guilty, the prosecutor explained that his guilty plea would be a matter of public record.

-- The prosecutor noted drolly that Craig told him that "he was in a difficult situation as a result of the nature of the charges and his position as a United States Senator."

-- The prosecutor noted that in all conversations, Craig "seemed calm, intellegent and methodical in his questions. At no time during the conversations, did the Defendant appear to have a tone or sense of urgency, panic, or overt emotion."

Perhaps best of all, Craig wrote a handwritten note to the prosecutor profusely thanking him for his help. The note was submitted in court by the prosecutor; you can read it right here.

Late Update: I should have made it clearer in this initial post that all these details were offered by the prosecutor in order to build the case that Craig knew what he was doing and understood the legal consequences when he initially pleaded guilty.

Breaking: A development in the Larry Craig case!

A prosecutor on the case has now filed papers in response to Craig's request to withdraw his guilty plea in the "wide stance" scandal. The prosecutor, Christopher Renz, makes a rather straightforward point: Craig didn't move to withdraw this plea until, you know, it became public:

Craig clearly "had hoped that he could plead guilty and that the plea would not be discovered by the media or public," Renz wrote. "The defendant chose to plead guilty and consciously took that risk. The defendant's current pursuit of withdrawal of his guilty plea is reactionary, calculated and political."

Not sure how one can argue with this.

Here's some news that's sure to be greeted with a welcome sigh of relief at the NRCC: despite being the subject of retirement rumors in a recent Washington Post article, Rep. John McHugh (R-NY) has just released a statement saying that he's not going anywhere.

"At this time, I fully expect to be a candidate for re-election in 2008," McHugh says. If McHugh were to retire, his seat, which Bush won by only narrow margins in 2000 and 2004, would vault to the top of the list of Democratic take-over opportunities.

It had to happen -- a GOP Congressman is calling for hearings into The New York Times's decision to publish MoveOn's anti-Petraeus ad at a cheaper-than-usual rate.

GOP Rep. Tom Davis of Virginia has sent a letter to Oversight Committee chair Henry Waxman demanding a probe into the "scandal."

"It is time for The New York Times to answer publicly, on the record, and under oath for its conduct," Davis writes. "You have repeatedly challenged the public statements of administration and private industry officials and sought testimony under oath. It is time for you to give equal treatment to The New York Times."

Davis issued a similar call for hearings last week, but his current one is noteworthy because it was inspired by yesterday's piece by The Times's public editor, Clark Hoyt, which reported that the paper had acknowledged that charging MoveOn the price it paid for the ad was a "mistake."

Davis has powerful political incentives for taking on The Times. He's running for the Senate seat of the retiring John Warner and faces a likely primary challenge from his right -- so attacking the paper is an easy way to put a little sheen on his tarnished conservative bona fides.

The full letter is here. Meanwhile, our take on how Hoyt dropped the ball with his piece on this is here at The Horse's Mouth.