A new Iowa poll from Newsweek shows Mitt Romney and Barack Obama narrowly leading their respective caucuses, though the results are within the margins of error.

Among Democrats, Obama has the support of 28% of likely caucus-goers, followed by Hillary Clinton's 24%, John Edwards at 22%, and Bill Richardson at 10%. The margin of error is ±7%.

Obama also leads in the combined first/second choices with 52%, followed by Hillary at 44%, Edwards at 41%, and Richardson with 19%.

Among Republicans, Mitt Romney has 24% support among likely caucus-goers, followed by Fred Thompson at 16%, Rudy Giuliani with 13%, Mike Huckabee at 12%, and John McCain with 9%. The margin of error is ±9%.

Romney has a lead for combined first/second choices with 45%, followed by Giuliani's 34%, Thompson at 26%, Huckabee with 14%, and McCain at 13%.

The second choices can be important in case the race gets too dirty between certain competitors, alienating many of their supporters and pushing them towards other choices. John Kerry and John Edwards benefitted immensely from the same effect in 2004, due to the negative campaigning between Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt.

Hillary Clinton yesterday proposed a "Baby Bonds" program, in which the government would give newborns $5,000 in an interest-bearing account that would become available to them at age 18, for the purposes of paying for college, going towards home ownership or other causes. The cost would be roughly $20 billion per year.

ABC News notes that Hillary proposed something similar in 2006, only then it was $500.

Only a day after reports that Gingrich would put up a Web site seeking pledge money for a presidential campaign, an aide now says that he is backing off and will not run, after all.

"He will continue to bring the American people solutions to the challenges America faces through American Solutions, not as a candidate for president," said Gingrich spokesman Rick Tyler, in a phone interview with CNN.

Tyler said that Gingrich realized he could not run his American Solutions political action committee and form a presidential exploratory campaign at the same time.

In a foreign-policy speech yesterday, Mike Huckabee severely faulted President Bush's handling of the War on Terror, specifically in regards to his trust of the regimes in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan — and even compared Bush to the military strongman who presides over the latter country.

"Just like Musharraf, since 9/11, the Bush administration has played both ends and the middle, assuring the American people that it’s doing everything it can to protect them, while tiptoeing around our supposed ally," Huckabee said. "It’s been afraid of upsetting the apple cart, even though the cart contains poisoned apples destined for export to the United States."

Bill Clinton is now getting involved in the talk about whether Barack Obama, his wife's chief rival, is experienced enough. In an interview with Bloomberg's Al Hunt, Bill said that it's not a fair comparison between Obama's experience and his own in 1992, when he was the same age as Obama is now.

"I was the senior governor in America," he said. "I had been head of any number of national organizations that were related to the major issue of the day, which is how to restore America's economic strength."

Rather, he said Obama's experience is much like his own back in 1988 — when he decided not to run for president. "I came within a day of announcing, because most of the governors were for me and I had been a governor for six years," said the former president. "And I really didn't think I knew enough and had served enough and done enough to run."

Barack Obama is advocating a change in drug-sentencing laws in order to address the severe differences in sentencing for powder versus crack cocaine.

"If you're convicted of a crime involving drugs, of course you should be punished," Obama said at Howard University's opening convocation. "But let's not make the punishment for crack cocaine that much more severe than the punishment for powder cocaine when the real difference is where the people are using them or who is using them."

Obama also discussed the Jena Six controversy: "Like Katrina did with poverty, Jena exposed glaring inequities in our justice system that were around long before that schoolyard fight broke out."

Obama could be taking a risk in discussing cocaine sentencing laws — in his first book, Dreams From My Father, he discussed his own drug experiences, including cocaine.

CNN reports that Barack Obama's campaign will take in $18-19 million for the quarter, and Hillary Clinton's campaign will have raised $17-20 million. If true, this means that they are about tied, or Hillary might even have out-raised Obama after two quarters in which he beat her in the money race.

There is of course the chance that the campaigns are both working the expectations game, and could have actually raised more than this. Or, the sources might actually be telling the truth.

Fred Thompson's campaign is expected to report taking in over $7 million for the third quarter, according to CNN. Thompson only officially declared his candidacy early this month, but this is still a letdown in that he'd been actively courting donors and building his campaign through his "testing the waters" committee all Summer.

Any last-minute presidential candidates now have a firm deadline to meet. New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner has selected November 2 as the filing deadline to get on the ballot for the state's primary — meaning that if Newt Gingrich or Al Gore decide to get in, they better do it before then.

It's still unclear when the actual primary will be, though. Gardner has a unique latitude among state election officers in setting the dates, and he has declined to pick that one yet so as to maintain his own leverage and head off any state trying to leapfrog over New Hampshire.

The Obama campaign has backtracked from a remark by Michelle Obama, that the candidate has to win Iowa. But it turns out that a Obama's campaign manager accidentally said the same thing in a new article in The New Republic:

I ran into Obama's wiry campaign manager, David Plouffe, chatting in a doorway. I mentioned to Plouffe that I had just returned from Iowa. "Iowa — that's the whole shebang!" he said. Then he paused. "I guess I'm not supposed to say that," he added with a grin. "But Iowa is very important."

I've just learned that Rep. Mark Udall (D-CO) will be introducing a resolution in the House of Representatives on Monday condemning Rush Limbaugh for his "phony soldiers" remark.

This is significant because it has the potential to dramatically up the stakes in this fight. If the Democratic leadership allows it to go for a vote, it will force all the Republicans in the House to either vote for it, against it, or skip the vote -- and to pass judgment on the powerful conservative talk show host's contention that troops who don't support President Bush's war policies are "phony soldiers."

It will also potentially present the Dem leadership with a not-so-easy choice. Many people will naturally call on the leadership to allow the resolution to come to a vote, which is not necessarily something the leadership might want, since it could look like a tit-for-tat reso in retaliation for the measure condemning MoveOn. It also is potentially problematic for some in the leadership because there is an internal sentiment that it's not Congress' job to go around denouncing the remarks, however reprehensible, of private citizens.

Sources tell us that there's a lot of interest in this resolution among rank and file Dem House members, and that it may come up for a vote soon. There's no guarantee by any means that this will end up happening, though it's likely that there will be some pressure on the leadership make it happen. Udall, whose office confirmed to me that he'd introduce the reso on Monday, has powerful incentive to drum up attention for it as a Senate candidate in Colorado.

Either way, it's a key development, because it has the potential to move this from a rhetorical battle to a legislative one, which would keep the story going. Here's Rep. Udall's "dear colleague" letter, which was leaked to Election Central:

September 28, 2007

JOIN AS AN ORIGINAL COSPONSOR OF A RESOLUTION

HONORING OUR ARMED FORCES AND

CONDEMNING RUSH LIMBAUGH'S ATTACK

ON "PHONY SOLDIERS"

Dear Colleague:

On September 26, 2007 the broadcaster Rush Limbaugh told a nationwide radio audience that members of the Armed Forces who have expressed disagreement with current policies of the United States regarding military activities in Iraq are "phony soldiers."

On Monday I will introduce a resolution honoring all Americans serving in the Armed Forces and condemning this unwarranted attack on the integrity and professionalism of those in the Armed Forces who choose to exercise their constitutional right to express their opinions regarding U.S. military action in Iraq.

For more information or to cosponsor the resolution, please contact XXXXXXX in my office at xxxxx.

Sincerely,

Mark Udall

Things could get very interesting next week. More on the media dynamic at play on this story right here at The Horse's Mouth.

Atrios reminds us that there's something of a backstory to the Rush-McCain relationship that could help explain the harshness of McCain's denunciation of Rush today: Back in 2000 when insurgent McCain was threatening Bush's casual stroll to the GOP nomination, Rush attacked him relentlessly for weeks and weeks on end.

Of course, McCain has happily patched things up this year with plenty of other folks on the right who he didn't get along with in 2000. So in the unlikely event that McCain gets the nomination, all will be forgiven and he'll be a happy guest in Rush's studio. But the backstory is interesting.

Rudy Giuliani, the most socially liberal major Republican candidate since Gerald Ford, tried an interesting line with Christian-right reporter David Brody: Citing the Bible.

"I'm guided very, very often about, 'Don't judge others, lest ye be judged,'" Rudy said when asked about his turbulent family life. "I'm guided a lot by the story of the woman that was gonna be stoned, and Jesus put the stones down and said, 'He that hasn't sinned, cast the first stone,' and everybody disappeared.

"It seems like, nowadays in America we have people that think they could've passed that test. And I don't think anybody could've passed that test but Jesus."

Rudy also gave an explanation for the odd manner in which he took a call from his wife during his speech before the NRA — citing 9/11. "My wife calls me when she gets on a plane," he said, saying how she was about to get on another plane but he didn't know exactly which one.

"And quite honestly, since Sept. 11, most of the time when we get on a plane, we talk to each other and just reaffirm the fact that we love each other," he said. "Sometimes if I'm in the middle of a very, very sensitive meeting, I don't take the call right then — I wait. But I thought it would be kind of nice if I took it at that point."

Mitt Romney becomes the second GOP Presidential candidate to denounce Rush Limbaugh with this statement sent to the Huffington Post by Romney spokesman Kevin Madden:

"Governor Romney would disagree with the negative characterization of those men and women who serve with honor and distinction in the United States Military. There may be disagreements with individual opinions, but no one would ever dispute the fact that those members of the military who disagree with the war have earned the right to express that opinion."

Rudy? Are you there?

This is pretty interesting. Newt Gingrich sat down for an interview with two conservative bloggers, Robert Bluey of RedState and Ed Morrissey of Captain's Quarters. While the two understandably were most interested in Gingrich's contention that Hillary is the most effective candidate among the Dems, another line grabbed our interest.

Specifically, Newt denounced the campaign Republicans ran against Kerry in 2004 as "cheap and nasty." Take a look:

Gingrich, speaking about Hillary, says:

"The most effective candidate in the race is Hillary Clinton. She has done exactly what you asked. It's just that her answers are wrong. Senator Clinton is a serious, competent, formidable person who works hard every day. She's for too much government, she's for too liberal a policy, she would appoint judges who are way too liberal. But she is a formidable person. No one on our side is going to beat her by the kind of cheap and nasty campaign that beat John Kerry."

"Cheap and nasty" -- that's what a lot of Dems, and independent observers, were saying about the GOP's campaign against Kerry at the time, too. What did Newt say he thought of the campaign against Kerry while it was happening? Might be worth checking into. At any rate, definitely noteworthy, and interesting that Newt thinks that Hillary is not "swift-boatable" the way Kerry was.

The first Republican member of Congress -- and first GOP Presidential candidate -- has now stepped forward to condemn Rush's "phony soldier" remark.

Time.com's Ana Marie Cox asked John McCain for a response to Rush's comments, and she received this blistering statement from the veteran and torture victim:

Any American who risks his or her life to defend us has earned the respect and gratitude of every American citizen, irrespective of their views on this war. If Mr. Limbaugh made the remark he is reported to have made, it reflects very poorly on him and not the objects of his offensive comment. I expect most Americans, whatever their political views, will have the same reaction. He would be well advised to retract it and apologize.

That's pretty tough stuff.

Meanwhile, lots more other developments in the "phony soldiers" saga. Huffington Post has unearthed a new and even more eye-opening episode of Rush soldier-bashing.

And Think Progress has obtained a letter from Senate Democratic leaders calling on Rush's parent company, Clear Channel, to repudiate his remarks.

Meanwhile, our take on the press dynamic at play on this story is right here at The Horse's Mouth.

Newt Gingrich is poised to enter the presidential contest on Monday with an interesting device: A self-made draft site.

The site will ask people to pledge money for his campaign if he were to run, and will lay out his ideas for the country.

And if he does officially declare, Gingrich will campaign in an unorthodox way, too. He'll skip the group debates, considering them to be useless pageants, and will instead challenge the others to one-on-one dialogues. Instead of sound-bite TV advertising, he'll mail DVD's to voters in the early primary/caucus states, in which he'll present his views to them in a lengthier format and ask for their support.

So is this for real? Gingrich is not actually forming an exploratory or "testing the waters" committee, so he can't directly fundraise — thus the pledge drive. Will this snowball into something bigger with GOP activists uncomfortable with their current choices?

The Edwards campaign has released a long memo by campaign manager David Bonoir explaining the decision to take public financing. The memo seeks to rebut every argument about this, from the idea that he's doing it out of necessity in the face of the Hillary and Obama fundraising juggernauts, to the charge that it would amount to unilateral financial disarmament against the Republicans in a general election.

The full memo is after the jump. Meanwhile, Ben Smith has obtained the campaign's internal talking points on the issue, so you can compare and contrast.

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Hillary Clinton is set to get the endorsement of a past Democratic nominee for president (besides Bill, of course). ABC News is reporting that Hillary will get the endorsement of former Senator George McGovern (D-SD), in an official announcement on October 6.

It's not actually that surprising. Bill and Hillary worked on McGovern's 1972 anti-war campaign, which lost in a landslide to Richard Nixon. So it might follow that McGovern would be inclined to return the favor — hopefully with a different outcome this time.

A Republican group called Stop Her now is vowing to raise and spend between $500,000 and $600,000 in an all-out effort to derail Hillary's Presidential candidacy between now and February.

"We expect we'll be much more intense in our efforts between now and Feb. 28," said Texas businessman Richard Collins, a leading organizer of the group. Among their efforts will be adding more mainstream humor — not just the right-wing kind — to their Web site and other efforts.

In addition, another group called Citizens United is producing an anti-Hillary documentary, which backers intend to serve the same role as the Swift Boat Veterans For Truth campaign against John Kerry in 2004.

As we reported earlier today over at The Horse's Mouth, Democrats and others have been pressuring the White House press corps to ask White House flack Dana Perino if President Bush -- who'd earlier condemned MoveOn -- would repudiate Rush Limbaugh's assertion that troops who want to withdraw from Iraq are "phony soldiers."

At the press briefing a few moments ago, a reporter did ask Perino the question. In response, she faulted Rush for the remark. She claimed that while she hadn't personally heard the remarks (she said), the President doesn't agree with the underlying sentiment and wouldn't have used those words. Take a look:

Perino said: "The President believes that if you are serving in the military that you have the rights that every American has which is you're free to express yourself in any way that you want to. And there are some that oppose the war, and that's okay."

Pressed specifically about Rush's "phony soldiers" phrase, she added: "It's not what the President would have used, no."

Hardly the scathing condemnation that MoveOn earned at the hands of the President of course. But this is still noteworthy, particularly since Bush and top Republicans are guests on his show. Despite Perino's contention that she hadn't heard the comment, the practiced answer that followed suggests that the White House made an internal decision to criticize the comment.

We have more ongoing coverage of this over at The Horse's Mouth.

A new Gallup poll finds Hillary Clinton leading the Democratic field in every category you think of: Ideology, region, income level, age, gender, you name it. This isn't entirely surprising given her overall national support of 48%, followed way behind by Barack Obama's 26% and John Edwards at 12%.

Obama might want to be concerned about this number: Blacks support Hillary over him by a 51%-38% margin.

The full numbers from the poll are available here.

We keep hearing that Rudy's views on gun-control, gay-rights and abortion will cause him to sink among conservative and religious voters, but this just isn't happening.

Indeed, a new Gallup poll released this morning shows the opposite: He's dominating the GOP field among these groups. What's more, he's tied for first with Fred Thompson -- among southern voters!

The poll finds:

* Rudy leads among conservative Republicans with 30%. Thompson is in second with 23%, John McCain in third with 15%, and Mitt Romney is in forth with 10%.

* Rudy leads among Republican voters who attend church weekly with 27%. Thompson is in second with 24%; McCain has 17%; and Romney has 9%. Rudy also leads among Republicans who attend church monthly. Not surprisingly, the catholic Rudy is very dominant among Catholic voters, but he's also leading among Protestants, too.

* Rudy is tied with Thompson among southern Republicans at 28%. McCain has 12% and Romney has 6%.

It's true that other polls have shown that many conservatives aren't familiar with Rudy's positions on issues of importance to them. But at some point, numbers like the above will have to be taken seriously.

In a sign that Republicans are coalescing around the candidacy of frontrunner Mike Johanns in the primary to replace retiring Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE), former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub has dropped out of the race, only 11 days after entering. Daub said that by leaving the race, he will help to avoid a contentious primary that could prevent Republicans from retaining the seat.

Just this week, Daub launched the first tv ad of the race.

There's a fascinating number buried in the new Fox News poll:

Would you describe [candidate name] as someone you can really relate to or not?

Hillary Clinton: Yes 45%; No 48%

Rudy Giuliani: Yes 43%; No 43%

Barack Obama: Yes 41%; No 43%

John McCain: Yes 37%; No 44%

Fred Thompson: Yes 26%; No 43%

So the candidate most voters can relate to is Hillary, who's routinely described by pundits as having a likability problem. The candidate the least voters can relate to is Fred Thompson, who's routinely described by pundits as affable. One caveat: Hillary also scores highest in the category of who voters can't relate to. Still, these are eye-opening numbers.

California Republicans are giving up on their attempted ballot initiative to split the state's electoral votes according to the winners of individual Congressional districts. If the measure had passed, the Republican nominee would have won an estimated 20 or so electoral votes from straight out of the Democratic column.

The organizers, an astroturf group calling themselves "Californians For Equal Representation," had problems with staff disputes, resignations and fundraising. But did they really need the money for a media campaign? They already had the active backing of Fox News.

"Let me be clear. I think Republican consultants are mostly very stupid. I think they have no education. I think they have no sense of history."

-- Newt Gingrich, in an interview with blogtalkradio flagged by Jonathan Martin.

Despite its heavy Republican lean in Presidential contests, national and local Democrats are hoping to make a serious play for the district of retiring Congressman Terry Everett (R-AL).

Among those considering the race is Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright, a self-described independent with ties to the state Democratic Party. Bright, who recently was re-elected with nearly 60% of the vote in a crowded field, told the Associated Press that he has been approached by both Democrats and Republicans to run for the seat. DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen called Bright "an A Team candidate" and added that the committee had been hoping to recruit him for a while, in preparation for Everett's retirement.

Also considering the race is state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks, a strong statewide vote-getter who was recruited but ultimately passed on challenging Republican Sen. Jeff Sessions next year. "I need to take time to look at the situation," Sparks said.

Seven active duty Army personnel participated in uniform at a McCain campaign event this month -- in apparent violation of Defense Department rules that prohibit uniformed personnel from engaging in such political activity, today's Boston Globe reports.

A DOD spokesman appeared to confirm to the paper that the soldiers were in violation. But the key to the story is this interview with one of the participants:

In a brief interview after the event, Sergeant First Class Chad Kozdra, the commanding officer at the recruiting station, said he had been approached days earlier about participating in the event by the McCain campaign.

He said he supported McCain and had done so in 2000.

"What they were told is that this was a support-the-troops barbecue," not a campaign appearance, said Paul Boyce, a US Army public affairs officer.

In fact, the Globe reports, the rally was part of McCain's "No Surrender" tour of early-primary states, despite the soldiers having been told that this was a "support-the-troops" barbeque.

In other words, it looks as if the McCain campaign induced these soldiers into a situation where they were in violation of DOD regs. A McCain spokesperson denied to The Globe that this was intended as a political event, but an expert in military affairs told the paper that it was a clear violation.

• The transcript of last night's Republican debate on PBS is available here.

• With the top four Republicans skipping this debate, which was dedicated to minority issues, viewers got a great chance to check out the second tier (Mike Huckabee and Sam Brownback), the third tier (Ron Paul, Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo), and — skipping the vacant fifth and sixth tiers — the seventh tier (Alan Keyes).

• Overall, Huckabee really shined in this environment, and was in many ways the real winner of the event.

• The six candidate who showed up all lambasted the no-shows to various degrees, with Mike Huckabee saying he was "ashamed" of the Republican Party for this, and Ron Paul quipping that he was there for the simple reason that he was invited, and he's glad to show up where people invite him. Sam Brownback offered black voters offended by the no-shows an easy way to get back at them: Register Republican, and vote in their primary for one of the six candidate who did show up.

• Right off the bat, talk-radio host Tom Joyner got in a jab at the four Republican no-shows. "And let me take a moment right here and now to say hello to those of you viewing from home," Joyner said. "Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Senator John McCain. Governor Mitt Romney. And Senator Fred Thompson. Well, you know, I had to call them out."

• This might shock some readers, but Tom Tancredo argued that he was the most racially progressive among them, on the question of showing up for debates: "I must admit to you that it is pleasurable and a little bit different to be in this kind of an environment with my colleagues who are here, because the last time I was at an event of this nature, it was the NAACP convention and I was the only Republican that showed up."

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The Dem denunciations of Rush Limbaugh for saying that antiwar troops are "phony soldiers" are coming fast and furious now. We've just received a statement from antiwar Dem Rep. Patrick Murphy, an Iraq war vet himself:

“Someone should tell chicken-hawk Rush Limbaugh that the only phonies are those who choose not to serve and then criticize those who do. I served proudly, so did two of my fellow paratroopers in the 82nd Airborne who spoke out and died just weeks ago. Generations of American veterans have worn the uniform with pride and we know it is no contradiction to serve your country and still disagree with the Bush-civilian leadership that mismanaged this war.”

The fellow paratroopers who died that Murphy refers to are the authors of the Times Op ed questioning the war who were killed in Iraq after their piece appeared.

As we reported earlier today over at The Horse's Mouth, Rush Limbaugh said on his radio show that soldiers who favor U.S. withdrawal from Iraq are "phony soldiers."

The assertion -- reminiscent of MoveOn's attack on Petraeus, which generated enormous controversy when Republicans attacked the group -- has the potential to be equally explosive, since some troops who are currently fighting in Iraq, and a handful who have died there, have questioned the war in the media.

Now Dems are stepping forward to blast his remark. First up: the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Here's the statement just released by DCCC chief Chris Van Hollen:

“Rush Limbaugh’s personal attack on our men and women in uniform is reprehensible. It minimizes the sacrifice our troops in Iraq and their families are making and has no place in the public discourse. Rush Limbaugh owes our military and their families an apology for his hurtful comments that minimize their service to our country.”

We have a feeling that more will be coming on this. We have lots more on Rush's radio appearance right here.

Late Update: Here's John Kerry's statement:

"This disgusting attack from Rush Limbaugh, cheerleader for the Chicken Hawk wing of the far right, is an insult to American troops. In a single moment on his show, Limbaugh managed to question the patriotism of men and women in uniform who have put their lives on the line and many who died for his right to sit safely in his air conditioned studio peddling hate. On August 19th, The New York Times published an op-ed by seven members of the U.S. Army's 82nd Airborne Division critical of George Bush's Iraq policy. Two of those soldiers were killed earlier this month in Baghdad. Does Mr. Limbaugh dare assert that these heroes were 'phony soldiers'? Mr. Limbaugh owes an apology to everyone who has ever worn the uniform of our country, and an apology to the families of every soldier buried in Arlington National Cemetery. He is an embarrassment to his Party, and I expect the Republicans who flock to his microphone will now condemn this indefensible statement."

Note the reference to the dead soldiers who authored that Times Op ed against the war, as well as the demand that GOPers condemn Rush for his remark.

Later Update: Looks like the Dems are determined to make a major issue of this. Rep. Frank Pallone was just on the House floor blasting Rush. He asked whether all the GOPers who condemned MoveOn will hold Rush to the same standard, concluding: "Don't hold your breath."

Even Later Update: Here's Dem Rep Patrick Murphy, an Iraq war vet himself, in a statement sent to us moments ago:

“Someone should tell chicken-hawk Rush Limbaugh that the only phonies are those who choose not to serve and then criticize those who do. I served proudly, so did two of my fellow paratroopers in the 82nd Airborne who spoke out and died just weeks ago. Generations of American veterans have worn the uniform with pride and we know it is no contradiction to serve your country and still disagree with the Bush-civilian leadership that mismanaged this war.”

CQ Politics has just unveiled a new batch of ratings of the 2008 House races, and things are shaping up favorably for Dems. Here are CQ's key conclusions:

* The Republicans are the defending party in more districts (28) than the Democrats (22).

* Of 28 mildly competitive districts, 16 seats are Republican-held seats and 12 are Democratic-held.

* Of the eight races CQ currently rates as toss-ups, six are held by Republicans, including four incumbents who have left their seats open to retire: Rick Renzi of Arizona’s 1st District; Jerry Weller of Illinois’ 11th; Jim Ramstad of Minnesota’s 3rd; and Deborah Pryce of Ohio’s 15th.

History dictates that a party taking the majority with a win as big as last year's generally heads into the next election on the defensive. That doesn't appear to be happening here. CQ concludes: "The Democrats have more opportunities in the 2008 elections to expand their newly minted majority in the U.S. House than the Republicans have to whittle the Democrats’ edge in seats." As Kos notes, CQ's analysis demonstrates very clearly that Dems have the momentum right now.

CQ's full analysis here.

Below we noted that the Quad City Times had quoted Michelle Obama saying that if her husband doesn't win Iowa, it's all over. But it looks like she didn't say this, after all. The campaign has sent out the following transcript of her actual remarks:

“Iowa will make the difference. If Barack doesn't win Iowa, it's just a dream, but if we win Iowa, then we can move the world as it should be. And we need your help in making that happen so join me."

Not the same at all, obviously.

John Edwards has become the first top-tier candidate to accept public financing, which would have the benefit of making up to $21 million available to his campaign in the form of federal matching funds.

On the other hand, it will limit him to $50 million in total spending for the primary season, as well as limits in each state — regardless of whether or not those states are judged to be more politically important. If he were to win the primaries, those limits would apply all the way up to the Democratic National Convention, leaving him potentially vulnerable to increased attack ads and thus more dependent on outside groups to run ads on his behalf.

"This is not about a money calculation," Edwards told CNN. "This is about taking a stand, a principled stand, and I believe in public financing."

However, it should be noted that Edwards' fundraising has lagged far behind both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama — and he is now challenging them to also opt into public financing in order to prove their support for it.

A new Research 2000 poll, commissioned by Daily Kos, shows Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) ahead of Democratic candidate Rick Noriega 51%-35%. On the surface this looks encouraging, in that the incumbent just barely breaks 50% support against an unknown opponent, and has an anemic re-elect number of 40%, with 35% wanting somebody else.

On the other hand, one has to wonder if Texas is a Republican counterpart to New Jersey, where the voters routinely dislike their politicians but nevertheless continue to re-elect Democratic incumbents. Even if Texas Republicans are unpopular, could they still win?

John Edwards' associations with hedge fund Fortress Investment Group keep coming back to bite him. It now turns out that Fortress companies foreclosed on sub-prime mortgage borrowers in Iowa — 107 of them, to be exact — while Edwards worked with the firm.

This is on top of earlier reports that Fortress-owned companies were foreclosing on sub-prime borrowers in New Orleans, a place that Edwards has put at the center of his anti-poverty agenda. The publicity from that caused Edwards to divest himself of his Fortress holdings.

Edwards told the Des Moines Register that he did not know about the Iowa foreclosures until they told him about it. "If you look at the context of everything I've done since the last election, it's absolutely clear where my heart is and what I care about," he said.

Bob Kerrey tells the local press in Nebraska that he's "excited" about running for the Senate seat of retiring Chuck Hagel.

But is he actually going to run? He still won't say, and won't say when he'll say, either. National Dems, of course, are desperate for him to run because he'd have a very clear shot at flipping Hagel's seat to blue, having been a Senator in the state before.

One thing leaning him against a run, Kerrey tells the Ohama World-Herald, is that he would have to move his wife and six-year-old son Henry all over the country -- first back to Nebraska for his Senate run, and then to D.C. should he win. "To make this work, we would have to relocate Henry twice," he says.

Hillary has just picked up an endorsement from Meathead. You know, Archie Bunker's nemesis on All In The Family -- a.k.a. film director Rob Reiner.

Reiner's endorsement of Hillary took place earlier today. It's actually a key get, Reiner being a high-profile liberal activist in Hollywood -- where Obama had threatened for awhile to cut into her turf until she reestablished her dominance out there.

Last night Hillary got a lot of attention when she declared her opposition to legalized torture even in extreme "ticking bomb" situations, asserting that she believes we need to adhere to an anti-torture policy under all circumstances.

This has prompted some people to point out that back in October of last year, Hillary outlined her openness to writing torture exceptions into law in an interview with the Daily News. If you want to hear audio of that interview, Ben Smith has it right here.

Now the Hillary campaign has responded to questions about the apparent contradiction -- and Hillary is reiterating her opposition to any pro-torture exceptions. Hillary spokesperson Phil Singer sends us the following statement:

Upon reflection and after meeting with former Generals and others, Senator Clinton does not believe that we should be making narrow exceptions to this policy based on hypothetical scenarios.

This policy, of course, being the no-torture policy that Hillary said she'd adhere to last night and that she's reiterating her fealty to here. So now she's solid on the issue.

The Senate voted 60-39 today — just enough votes for cloture against a threatened Republican filibuster — to attach the hate crimes bill to the Defense Authorization bill, expanding current hate crimes protections to include sexual orientation.

All 51 Democratic Senators voted for the bill, along with nine Republicans: John Warner (VA), Richard Lugar (IN), Susan Collins (ME), Olympia Snowe (ME), George Voinovich (OH), Arlen Specter (PA), Norm Coleman (MN), Judd Gregg (NH), and Gordon Smith (OR).

And among the 39 Republicans who voted No were David Vitter of Louisiana, plus Idaho's Larry Craig. And finally, John McCain missed the vote.

Late Update: This post accidentally said that 48 Republicans voted no. Rather, 48 total Republicans voted, with John McCain absent and nine more voting with the Dems.

Michelle Obama, speaking out with surprising candor in the Quad City Times:

“Iowa will make the difference,” Obama said. “If Barack doesn’t win Iowa it is over.”

As Ben Smith notes, this is blunter than candidates usually are about the importance of Iowa -- even, I'd add, when they're in full Iowa-suck-up mode.

A new poll from Rasmussen puts a crimp in the argument that Hillary is unelectable in a national general election, finding that she enjoys a sizable national lead over Rudy:

Clinton 48%

Giuliani 43%

She fares even better against Fred Thompson:

Clinton 48%

Thompson 41%

Rasmussen holds this up as proof that Hillary's "surging," pointing out that two weeks ago, Hillary's lead over Rudy was a statistically insignificant one point. "Prior to that, Clinton had held an advantage over Giuliani only once in fourteen consecutive Rasmussen Reports polls," Rasmussen says, theorizing that her gains are largely due to the good reception that greeted her recently announced health care plan.