Rudy Giuliani, in a new interview:

"If we don't talk about Sept. 11, you can't prepare to try to avoid another Sept. 11."

And, of course, if we don't talk about Sept. 11, we can't get elected President, either...

In the wake of questions from the blogosphere about the paper's political neutrality, two members of the Bangor Daily News editorial staff have agreed to recuse themselves from all coverage of the Maine Senate race.

On the right, executive editor Mark Woodward served as press secretary to Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) for ten months in 1996 and 1997. His wife, Bridget Woodward, is a local caseworker in the Senator's Bangor district office, though she is retiring at the end of the month. The paper first came under fire for this connection over an editorial hitting the campaign of Congressman Tom Allen, the Democratic Senate candidate, for sending a tracker to videotape Collins out on the campaign trail.

On the left, the paper's news editor in charge of political coverage is Tim Allen, a first cousin of Tom Allen.

Both Woodward and Allen have said in an editorial announcement that it is in the paper's best interests to remove any appearance of a conflict of interest, and thus Senate race coverage will be handled by other editors at the paper who do not have any personal or professional connections to the candidates.

Bill Richardson attacks his top three Democratic opponents by name in a guest column today for The Washington Post. In the piece, he promotes his stance that the United States must withdraw from Iraq as quickly as possible, without leaving a residual force — and excoriates his opponents for being too cautious:

In the most recent debate, I asked the other candidates how many troops they would leave in Iraq and for what purposes. I got no answers. The American people need answers. If we elect a president who thinks that troops should stay in Iraq for years, they will stay for years — a tragic mistake.

Clinton, Obama and Edwards reflect the inside-the-Beltway thinking that a complete withdrawal of all American forces somehow would be "irresponsible." On the contrary, the facts suggest that a rapid, complete withdrawal — not a drawn-out, Vietnam-like process — would be the most responsible and effective course of action.

Fred Thompson has so far avoided debating any of his Republican opponents, most notably skipping Wednesday's event on Fox News in order to go appear on The Tonight Show With Jay Leno. Now Mike Huckabee wants to change that.

Huckabee is challenging Thompson to a series of one-on-one "Lincoln-Douglas" debates, citing Thompson's praise of the format Thursday night on Hannity & Colmes. "Senator, let's lead by example and get the ball rolling," Huckabee said in an open letter, which supporters are invited to co-sign. "I look forward to hearing your thoughts on this idea and debating you in front of the American people."

Thompson, however, was praising the format for a general election, while simultaneously eschewing primary debates with a glut of candidates. From Nexis:

"That is the way that you find out how somebody really thinks. I know it is difficult when you have that number of people running. And I don't know the answer to it in the primary. But I think certainly in the general election, something like that would be something I would gravitate to."

This begs two questions: Will Thompson accept Huckabee's invitation for a one-on-one primary debate? And if not, will he actually be going to any debates during the primary season?

Chris Dodd has taken a bold step in the presidential race: He is advocating for the repeal of the embargo against Cuba. From the campaign press release:

"Our Cuba policy has neither served America's interests nor brought democracy to Cuba. It has only served to strengthen the current regime. It has been an abject failure," said Dodd. "I am proposing these changes to the current policy because they make sense and are the right thing to do - for the Cuban people, but more importantly for America. And I refuse to let Fidel Castro or his successor determine the timetable for setting America's policy. Setting America's policy is for the American President to decide."

In a move that opens up another Senate seat for a possible Dem pickup, Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE) will announce his retirement at a press conference on Monday, according to this morning's Omaha World Herald. He'll also take himself out of contention for the Presidency, the paper reports:

Hagel plans to announce that "he will not run for re-election and that he does not intend to be a candidate for any office in 2008," said one person, who asked not to be named.

Hagel has scheduled a press conference for 10 a.m. Monday at the Omaha Press Club.

According to one person interviewed, Hagel told Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky on Friday morning that he had decided to retire. Hagel's staff learned of his decision that afternoon.

The news will set in motion a scramble to succeed him. Two Republicans -- Attorney General Jon Bruning and financial adviser Pat Flynn -- have already announced, and former Dem Senator Bob Kerrey has said he's interested in returning to the Senate.

A Kerrey entry into the race would give Dems a real shot at picking up another Senate seat and at the very least would add to the mounting 2008 Senate woes of the GOP. The party is already dealing with Senator John Warner's (R-VA) announced retirement and Senator Larry Craig's (R-ID) almost certain resignation, as well as the increased vulnerability of GOP Senators like Norm Coleman, John Sununu, and Susan Collins, all of whom face reelection next year and are badly weakened by the Iraq War. ( Via Think Progress.)

Late Update: The New York Times is now reporting the same thing, citing anonymous aides to the Senator.

Later Update: The paper adds that Kerrey declined to comment today on his intentions, but last month, he said: “These moments don’t happen very often. It’s a possibility.”

With Democratic Senate leaders suggesting they may drop their demand for withdrawal timelines, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have come under some pressure to show some leadership and use their high-visibility candidacies to press the point that the Senate leadership had best not cave on Iraq this fall.

Now Hillary's office has emailed out a statement reiterating her commitment to a withdrawal bill with teeth and calling on the Dem Congressional leadership to remain committed to that approach:

As General Petraeus prepares to testify before Congress next week, it is clear that the increase in U.S. troops in Iraq has simply not led to political reconciliation in Iraq. Rather than continuing the escalation, we must begin the immediate redeployment of U.S. troops out of Iraq, in order to end this war as soon as possible. I continue to support legislative efforts requiring the Administration to begin to withdraw our troops and to complete the redeployment of combat troops in 2008, and I encourage the Congressional leadership to ensure that we will have an opportunity to vote for such legislation.

The President continues to reject the findings of the National Intelligence Estimate, the Government Accountability Office report and the Jones Commission report, refuses to work with Congress to develop a strategy that will enable our troops to start coming home, and stubbornly denies the reality on the ground and the will of the American people.

We will continue to press him to follow the will of the people. I will continue to do everything in my power to convince the President to change course and to work with my colleagues in the Senate to bring an end to this war as soon as possible.

This obviously doesn't go as far as Chris Dodd, who's demanding that there be no Iraq funding bill whatsoever unless it contains strict withdrawal timetables, or John Edwards, who's insisting that Congress keep sending back the same withdrawal-mandating bill to the President again and again. But as Kos notes, it's a decent start.

Despite having multiple primary challengers, plus the recent leak of a Republican poll showing him losing to his 2006 Democratic opponent, scandal-tarred Congressman John Doolittle (R-CA) has made it clear he's not backing down from his 2008 re-election fight.

"I will not step aside," Doolittle told reporters in a conference call today. "I am running again. Period."

The medical examiner in the death of Congressman Paul Gillmor (R-OH), who was found deceased at his Northern Virginia apartment on Wednesday, said Gillmor died of head and neck trauma "consistent with a fall." The circumstances of his death, which is now ruled to have been accidental, were not considered suspicious.

Congressman Gillmor was 68 years old, serving his tenth term in the House.

Late Update: The Rothenberg Political Report has the news that Gillmor's widow has ruled out a run for his seat.

We've just obtained a private letter that DNC chair Howard Dean has sent out to DNC members in which he mounts a spirited defense of his party committee's position in the current jostling with rogue states over their efforts to leapfrog their primaries forward in the nominating calendar.

In the letter, Dean lays out the DNC's case in detail and all but calls these rogue states hypocritical for selectively following party rules that had been voted on and supported by committeemen from these same states in the first place. Dean also acknowledges that the ongoing battles have rubbed a lot of people raw, makes a plea for party unity, and seems to admit to some frustration with the process, repeatedly saying that party rules should "mean something."

"We do not believe that states can cherry pick which of these rules they choose to follow," Dean writes. "This process is not easy, and, no doubt, there are more than enough hurt feelings to go around. But none of us can forget that our shared ultimate goal is to select the nominee best prepared to lead us to victory on November 4, 2008 and out of the Bush wilderness. To do that, we must continue to work together."

For those of you who've been following this ongoing controversy, we've got Dean's full letter for you after the jump.

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So what do Nebraska Dems think Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE) will say at his (R-NE) press conference on Monday?

They think he's retiring. That's what Eric Fought, communications director for the Nebraska Democratic Party, just told us by phone: "Well, I think the conventional wisdom is that he's going to announce that he's not seeking re-election, and that's where everybody thinks this is going to go."

Fought explained that Hagel's own recent behavior suggests a retirement. "He was almost invisible during the August recess, so that's one clue," Fought said. Normally, a politician who plans on running again will spend recesses going to town hall meetings and other public events, keeping in touch with constituents. Also, Fought noted, Hagel has not been raising money for a re-election bid — and this is despite the fact that he already has multiple primary challengers.

Hagel could still throw everyone for a loop and announce that he's running. But so far, there does seem to be good evidence that this will be an open-seat race next year. A Hagel retirement would be a big deal and another headache for the GOP, since it could clear the way for a Democratic pickup if former Senator Bob Kerrey (D) decides to make a comeback and run for Hagel's seat.

We've got the full text of the speech for you after the jump.

In addition to proposing CITO, a multilateral organization designed to promote cooperation between countries' counterterrorism operations, Edwards also took an implicit pop at Hillary for saying some time ago that we're safer than we were on 9/11.

"Some running for the Democratic nomination have even argued that the Bush-Cheney approach has made us safer," Edwards said. "It has not."

There's also this pithy line: "We need a counterterrorism policy that will actually counter terrorism."

The rest after the jump.

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Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE), a conservative who has broken sharply with the White House on Iraq, will hold a press conference on Monday to announce his future political plans. He is up for re-election in 2008, and the Monday announcement could finally reveal whether he is retiring, as many expect, or will in fact be running again.

Hagel already faces pro-war primary challenges from Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning, businessman Pat Flynn, and former Congressman Hal Daub — though in an ironic twist, having that many Republican challengers could actually help him if he is seeking re-election.

If Hagel does not run, former Democratic Senator Bob Kerrey might seek a comeback, and would be a favorite to win the seat. If Kerrey does not run, Democrats have also been courting Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey. Neither of them will run if Hagel does.

Barack Obama's campaign announced today that he's received the endorsement of Federico Pena, a former mayor of Denver who served as Secretary of Energy in Bill Clinton's White House. The endorsement looks like a decent get for Obama, being from a Western-state Latino who worked in the Clinton Cabinet.

"For me, judgment and wisdom are far more important than experience," Pena told reporters in a conference call — obviously contrasting Obama's lack of experience with Hillary Clinton's vote for the Iraq War, a frequent Obama campaign theme. "But frankly, I like the experience that Senator Obama has."

Congressman Paul Broun (R-GA), a conservative activist who won a shocking upset victory in a July special election, already has a primary challenger for 2008. State House Majority Whip Barry Fleming has filed paperwork with the Federal Elections Commission to launch an exploratory committee, and a spokesman has indicated that Fleming will officially announce his candidacy in two weeks.

Broun ran as an anti-establishment Republican, defeating fellow GOPer Jim Whitehead by less than 400 votes in a runoff. Whitehead had been widely expected to win, but his campaign was derailed by a large vote for Broun in Athens, the district's liberal bastion. Broun, a lifelong Athens resident, was able to capitalize on Whitehead's joke about the town being bombed. If Fleming avoids those sorts of mean-spirited gaffes, then Broun could have to work very hard in order to get re-elected.

John Edwards gave a big foreign policy speech in New York today. Here's what he had to say about Pakistan:

As President I will condition future American aid on progress by Pakistan, including strengthening the reach of police forces, and working more effectively with tribal leaders and their members to ensure their acceptance of the government. But I want to be clear about one thing: if we have actionable intelligence about imminent terrorist activity, and the Pakistan government refuses to act, we will.

That's remarkably similar to what Barack Obama said in his big speech on August 1, and at the time he was sharply criticized as being very unserious for committing such a "gaffe." Obama said:

I understand that President Musharraf has his own challenges. But let me make this clear. There are terrorists holed up in those mountains who murdered 3,000 Americans. They are plotting to strike again. It was a terrible mistake to fail to act when we had a chance to take out an al Qaeda leadership meeting in 2005. If we have actionable intelligence about high-value terrorist targets and President Musharraf won't act, we will.

Late Update: An Edwards supporter writes in to say that he's said similar things about Pakistan before, such as this.

The election is this Fall, but Louisiana Treasurer John Kennedy has already been effectively re-elected — he is running unopposed. Candidate filing closed yesterday, and not one candidate from either party will attempt to unseat him.

Kennedy switched party affiliation from Democratic to Republican a week and a half ago, a move that was widely seen as the first step in challenging Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu in 2008. He previously ran unsuccessfully for Senate in 2004, as a Democrat.

New Survey USA poll on what Idahoans think Larry Craig's next move should be:

What should Craig do?

52% Leave Senate
29% Serve Out Term, Don't Run
17% Serve Out Term And Run Again
2% Not Sure

Meanwhile, 54% say he should leave his guilty plea in place.

Could things get worse for Craig? Well, yes, actually. When asked to rate the respect they have for Craig on a scale of one to 10, the largest percentage, 30%, choose one. Yikes.

Here are some advance excerpts of the big counter-terrorism speech John Edwards will be giving today at noon in New York City.

Edwards will propose the creation of an organization called Counterterrorism and Intelligence Treaty Organization, a kind of NATO-knockoff devoted to coordinating anti-terrorism activities between countries "on all continents."

"CITO will allow members to voluntarily share financial, police, customs and immigration intelligence," Edwards will say. "The new organization will also create a historic new coalition. Those nations who join will, by working together, show the world the power of cooperation. Those nations who join will also be required to commit to tough criteria about the steps they will take to root out extremists, particularly those who cross borders. Those nations who refuse to join will be called out before the world."

We're not sure what that last line would mean in practice, but hopefully Edwards will elaborate in the speech. Meanwhile, here's another key line from the speech: "We need a counterterrorism policy that will actually counter terrorism."

More excerpts after the jump.

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Representative Mike Simpson (R-ID) lashed out at Senate Republican leaders for their treatment of his Idaho colleague, Senator Larry Craig (R).

"I hope I never stub my toe and they throw me under the bus," Simpson said in The Hill. "It kind of makes you wonder what party you want to be a member of."

Simpson also pointed out that there have been other scandals in the Senate GOP conference, and those members have not been forced to resign. "They have people over there in far worse trouble that they haven't said a thing about," he said, referring to Senators such as Ted Stevens of Alaska and David Vitter of Louisiana.

Simpson also said he does not want the appointment to Craig's Senate seat, and does not even wish to serve in the Senate.

New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin, who had kept speculation going that he would run for governor of Louisiana, did not file as a candidate by yesterday's deadline. However, Nagin did say that he intends to keep active and will try to affect the terms of the debate in the election. "I will expect any candidate who wants to be taken seriously to commit to the full recovery of New Orleans, this region and ultimately this state," he said.

The current frontrunner is Republican Congressman and 2003 gubernatorial candidate Bobby Jindal, who has enjoyed poll numbers over the 50% mark needed to avoid a runoff under the state's multi-candidate "jungle primary" system.

Norman Hsu, the big Dem donor and fugitive fraudster who vanished the other day rather than show up in a California court, has now been nabbed by the Feds in Colorado after falling ill on the lam:

Authorities said Hsu was taken into custody at St. Mary's Hospital in Grand Junction at 7 p.m. local time. He had been on the lam for almost two days after failing to appear in a Redwood City courtroom Wednesday to surrender his passport.

Hsu was taken off a passenger train at the Grand Junction train station earlier in the day by paramedics who requested a backboard to move him, said Sgt. Lonnie Chavez with the Grand Junction Police Department.

Authorities received a request for medical assistance at the train station at about 11:15 a.m., but the exact nature of Hsu's condition was unclear, Chavez said. Staff at St. Mary's Hospital declined to comment.

The FBI will be shipping him back to California to face the 1992 charges against him. More detail on his alleged wrongdoing here.

Senator James Inhofe (R-OK), the chamber's leading global warming skeptic, told CNSNews.com that Fred Thompson has been talking the right way on the subject, though he apparently stopped short of endorsing Thompson for now.

"The Republicans will need a nominee for president who is willing to tell the truth, and so far the one out there with the most courage is Fred Thompson," said Inhofe. "He is aware of all the issues I've raised on global warming, and right now he's the only one I see who is willing to take this on."

Thompson's own writings on the subject have alleged that global warming is part of a natural phenomenon affecting the whole solar system, and he has even compared skeptics of a human cause in global warming to Galileo.

A new CNN poll shows that a majority of Americans do not think the United States will be able to kill or capture Osama Bin Laden. Whereas a late 2001 CNN poll showed that 78% believed the United States could succeed in apprehending or killing him, only 42% believe it will be done now, compared to 54% who do not have confidence in America's ability to do so.

This 36-point decline in confidence is perfectly understandable — it has been almost six years to the day since 9/11, and he's apparently still out there.

A new Rasmussen poll shows that only 39% of likely voters think General David Petraeus will honestly present his own views in his upcoming progress report on Iraq. Thirty-five percent believe the report will not accurately reflect Petraeus' opinions, and 26% are not sure.

Also, 45% expect that the report will be positive, 24% believe it will be negative, and 31% are not sure.

Bottom line: The continued public relations campaigning by the White House, on behalf of the general and the report, have likely caused them to become intertwined with the president's own credibility or lack thereof.

Barack Obama is proposing a new bill to require campaigns to track and report the activities of bundlers. From his Senate office's press release:

Obama’s bill will require candidates for Congress to disclose all of the people who gather contributions from others in excess of $15,000 in any six month period and require presidential candidates to disclose people who gather contributions of others in excess of $50,000 anytime during the two-year period prior to Election Day.

Senator Obama fought for and won a provision in the Senate ethics reform bill that requires campaigns to disclose campaign contributions solicited by lobbyists from their friends and colleagues – a practice known as bundling. Obama’s bill introduced today will go further by requiring the disclosure of all the wealthy and connected contributors who play a critical role in campaigns by bundling contributions from their friends and associates.

Ben Smith suspects this could be "an oblique Hsu shot" against Hillary Clinton. But it could just as easily be damage control. Remember, Obama got money from Hsu, too, and also had to give it away to charity in an embarrassing campaign moment.

CNN has unearthed some interesting blog posts by Karen Hanretty, a GOP consultant who has signed on with Fred Thompson — writings that might damage his image in Iowa.

"Imagine there’s no first-in-the-nation Iowa caucus," she wrote for The Hill. "No need to pander to corn farmers. No politicizing ethanol for votes. No pressure to support hundreds of millions of dollars in taxpayer-funded ethanol subsidies."

The Thompson campaign is brushing off any association with the comments. "What matters is that Fred respects Iowa's traditional role," said a top aide. "He is the candidate."

And where is Fred Thompson today? He's in Iowa.

Fred Thompson will be going on his first New Hampshire trip as an officially declared candidate this weekend. On Saturday, he'll stop by Stratham for the Seacoast Federation of Republican Women's annual chili festival, and on Sunday he'll campaign for Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta, who is up for re-election in November, and then later on Sunday he'll make a visit to Nashua.

Interesting side note: His host in Nashua, Mayor Bernie Streeter, is already supporting John McCain, even though he does meet-and-greets for other Republican candidates.

MoveOn is now contemplating a new, expanded mission in 2008, and wants its members' input on this question: Should the group support primary challengers against Congressional Democrats who have supported the Iraq War?

"Polls show that a majority of voters everywhere support an exit from Iraq," the group says in an e-mail to supporters. "That means that there isn't a single Democratic member of Congress whose constituents don't want to bring our troops home. Representatives who vote with President Bush on Iraq are voting against their districts."

However, the group is proceeding cautiously on whether or not to take such an aggressive step within the Democratic Party. Even if this is a worthy idea on its face, is it still the best use of resources? “Deciding to support primary challenges is a big step — some folks have argued that we should keep our focus on Republicans, the primary architects and supporters of the war,” the e-mail says.

So how about it? Will 2008 be marked by more races like Ned Lamont's 2006 campaign against Joe Lieberman? And furthermore, how will the Democratic presidential nominee feel about the inevitable public pressure to take sides in these races?

Great Virginia Hope Mark Warner says that he'll be announcing within a week whether he'll run for the seat of retiring Senator John Warner. That means we'll know whether he's running by next week at the latest.

If he does run, many analysts think he'll have a pretty easy time taking the seat -- which raises the extraordinary possibility that both of Virginia's Senate seats could end up flipping from red to blue in the space of two years.

Barely hours after the news broke of that new poll in Colorado showing Obama faring better against Rudy than Hillary in the state, the Obama campaign has already sent out a new memo arguing that Colorado in particular, and the west in general, presents a big opportunity for Obama and his "message of change."

The memo, from campaign manager David Plouffe, notes that Obama is staffing up and opening offices in the state and argues that Obama's "appeal to independents shown through countless national polls" is a key advantage in Colorado, because "unaffiliated voters are the largest block of registered voters in the state."

Colorado, of course, is a key swing state and was the site of recent Dem gains on the state level. It was chosen to host the Democratic National Convention, reflecting the belief of national Dem strategists after the gains of 2006 that the west offers major possibilities for expansion next year and beyond. By pointing Obama's appeal among indys and to the poll showing Hillary faring less well in the state, Camp Obama, obviously, is trying to make the case that (unlike Hillary) he is the Dem who can consolidate these gains and best exploit these expansion opportunities.

For those of you who like reading these things, we've got the full memo after the jump.

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A new poll conducted yesterday by Democratic firm Public Policy Polling shows Fred Thompson running well ahead in the North Carolina Republican primary, while Hillary Clinton and John Edwards are running close among Democrats:

Democrats:
Clinton 30%
Edwards 28%
Obama 21%

Republicans:
Thompson 34%
Giuliani 16%
Romney 13%
McCain 7%

Hillary wins her lead with Democrats by running relatively well among both white and African-American voters, while Obama is invisible among whites and Edwards barely registers with blacks. Among white Democrats, Edwards has 35%, Hillary 34%, and Obama 9%. Among black Democratic voters, Obama has 51%, Hillary 22%, and Edwards 6%.

Bill Richardson has a new ad running in Iowa, entitled "Offers," in which he jumps into the battle of idealistic ads offering change for the country. The ad is a sharp departure from his previous theme of comedic job interview-themed spots:

"George Bush has made a mess of almost everything," the narrator says. "Now we need experience and change. Bill Richardson offers both."

A new poll by Democratic firm RBI Strategies & Research finds that Colorado could be in play next year — it is a swing state that has been trending towards Democratic dominance recently — but Hillary Clinton might not be in such good shape for it:

Giuliani (R) 50%, Clinton (D) 44%
Giuliani (R) 46%, Obama (D) 45%
Clinton (D) 48%, Romney (R) 42%
Obama (D) 50%, Romney (R) 37%

Rudy Giuliani has a favorable/unfavorable rating of 53%-36%, Barack Obama 51%-38%, and Mitt Romney 34%-34%. Hillary Clinton is the only one of the four tested candidates to have a net negative rating there, at 43%-51%.

Fred Thompson only just officially declared his candidacy — but he's already fending off attacks from his foes. In a phone interview with The Hill, Mike Huckabee heavily implied that Thompson was trying to avoid facing the other candidates on the same stage and taking tough questions. "I think Fred should've come," said Huckabee. "What was it about that debate that he didn't want to be a part of?"

Huckabee's criticism of Thompson got more severe from there, discussing Thompson's Washington experience. "I've never been a Washington lobbyist," said. "I've never lobbied for an abortion rights group."

You might recall that Thompson's "testing the waters" campaign was forced to admit over the Summer that the candidate did lobbying work for a pro-choice organization in 1991 and 1992, when they were seeking to relax the gag rule on abortion for organizations receiving federal funds — not exactly the sort of thing that would go over well with the GOP base.

Here it is: The first of four short documentary videos about Rudy Giuliani by filmmaker Robert Greenwald has just been released. Don't miss it.

The first installment by Greenwald -- who made the well received Outfoxed about Fox News -- turns a fire-hose onto the notion, promulgated by Rudy himself, that his Masterfully Churchillian Performance after 9/11 demonstrates that he has the leadership skills to be President. It hits Rudy for failing to prepare the city for another terrorist attack and for personally profiting off 9/11 in speeches, among other things. Take a look:

In its response, the Rudy campaign, inevitably, took refuge behind 9/11. "It's unfortunate that a conspiracy theorist so disconnected from reality would launch a politically motivated hit video to coincide with the anniversary of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks," a spokesman told the Associated Press.

The remaining three installments from Greenwald are due out later this month. Meanwhile, you can get more info on the project at TheRealRudy.org.

A new Rasmussen poll shows Democrats having a strong advantage in the generic Congressional ballot, leading the Republicans 50%-32%. This is an increase from a month ago, when Rasmussen had the Dems ahead 47%-37%.

And on top of that, 69% of respondents say it is very likely or somewhat likely that Democrats will maintain control of Congress in the 2008 elections, compared to only 18% who think it is very or somewhat likely that Republicans can take it back.

Chris Dodd reacts to the news today that Senate Dems are now saying they're willing to "compromise" with Republicans on whether to attach a withdrawal timetable to war funding:

"I cannot and will not support any measure that does not have a firm and enforceable deadline to complete the redeployment of combat troops from Iraq. Only then will Congress be able to send a clear message to the President that we are changing course in Iraq, and a message to the Iraqis that they need to get their political house in order."

No withdrawal timetable, no war funding. Simple. And, as Dodd says, "clear." As in, Republicans support the war, Democrats want to end it.

Talk about one-upmanship.

Not long ago Barack Obama's campaign came up with the idea of raising money by selling prospective donors the chance to have a private dinner with him.

Earlier this week the Hillary campaign announced a similar idea, selling prospective donors the opportunity to have lunch with her.

And now comes the coup de grace from Camp Hillary -- it turns out that the lucky donor who wins that contest will be lunching not just with Hillary, but with Bill, too! Bill has just emailed out a fundraising letter containing this:

I hear you might be having lunch with Hillary -- do you mind if I drop in?

I know Hillary would be the best president, and you know she's ready to change America. So why not help her win today? The campaign will choose one supporter to have lunch with Hillary and me -- along with a guest -- and if you make a contribution by midnight Friday, September 7, it might just be you.

...if you give between now and Friday, you and your guest could have a meal and a conversation with Hillary. And I'll be joining you.

Somewhere, David Broder is grumbling.

John Edwards has picked up a fourth union endorsement, this time from the Transport Workers Union. The TWU has 130,000 current active members, with a total of 200,000 when retirees are counted.

Interestingly, TWU membership includes unionization within New York City's Metropolitan Transportation Authority — right inside of Hillary Clinton's turf.

For those of you who missed it when it premiered around midnight, here's Fred Thompson's Web announcement:

Thompson's stances in this speech — talking about private health accounts, education reform, and tougher border security — are all standard conservative positions, but generally better enunciated than we've seen from him before.

However, the most intriguing part would be this:

In this broader war with this different kind of enemy, our success cannot always be measures by battlefield victories. Success will depend upon the determination of the American people, and that's why we'll win. There's a courage that comes in unity. Now is the time to show that America united can overcome any danger, and America united can complete any mission.

Before the end of my Senate service in the year after 9/11, I saw the Congress of the United States at its best: Alert to danger, and focused on duty. We need to recover that clarity and conviction in matters of national security.

This is kind of fun -- it looks as if some GOP Senators chastised their leadership in a private meeting for being too quick to judge Wide Stance over his men's room conduct.

Amusingly, one of the key Senators who "wagged their finger" at the leadership, according to a GOP aide, was Sen. Ted. Stevens of Alaska. Stevens' home was recently raided in a federal corruption investigation -- which might explain his aversion to such rushes to judgment in general.

There's been yet another twist in the Saga of Wide Stance Larry -- now one of his top aides is saying that he's likely to resign, after all:

"The most likely scenario, by far, is that by October there will be a new senator from Idaho," Craig spokesman Dan Whiting told the Associated Press.

The only circumstances in which Craig might try to complete his term, Whiting said, would require the overturning by Sept. 30 of his conviction for disorderly conduct in a men's room at the Minneapolis airport, as well as Senate GOP leaders' agreement to restore Craig's committee leaderships posts taken away this week.

Craig's spokesman did say that he's still trying to clear his name and to get the senate ethics committee to back off. But he conceded to the AP that the likelihood of pulling off the scenario whereby he'd be able to return to the Senate was unlikely.

Okay, then -- can we put an end to this one, already?

Here are some names being floated by the White House of potential replacements for outgoing Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, according to Roll Call:

Former Solicitor General Ted Olson

Former Attorney General Bill Barr

Former Deputy Attorney General George Terwilliger

D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals Judge Laurence Silberman

Former Deputy Attorney General Larry Thompson

Michael Mukasey, a former judge on the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York.

Roll Call offers a rundown on their bios and chances, and speculates that this list of names "appears aimed at avoiding a lengthy confirmation fight with Senate Democrats," suggesting that the White House is resisting calls from some quarters for a sustained brawl with Dems over Gonzo's replacement.

It looks as if Dem Congressional leaders are laying the groundwork for the possibility that they'll be willing to continue funding the Iraq War this fall without insisting on withdrawal timetables.

Today's New York Times reports that Dem leaders are now willing to reach a compromise of sorts with Republicans in order to get the 60 votes -- a compromise that would entail dropping the idea of a date certain for withdrawing most of the troops from Iraq.

“If we have to make [withdrawal by] the spring part of a goal, rather than something that is binding, and if that is able to produce some additional votes to get us over the filibuster, my own inclination would be to consider that,” Dem Senator Carl Levin tells the paper.

Of course, it's not immediately clear why it would be a "compromise" for Dems to give moderate Republicans what they want -- i.e., the opportunity to appease their constituents by voting symbolically against the war without forcing it to end -- while giving up what they want, which is mandated withdrawal. Nonetheless, it's looking more and more like this may be where things will head after the country is hypnotized next week by General Petraeus into believing that the surge is working.

Here's another new poll that puts a crimp in the Hillary-is-unelectable argument -- a new Quinnipiac survey released today that finds Hillary has moved into a 47%-40% lead over Rudy Giuliani, and beats the other GOP contenders handily, in Ohio.

It also finds that John Edwards, and to a slightly lesser extent Barack Obama, are faring very well against the Republicans in the key swing state:

* Clinton tops Arizona Sen. John McCain 46 - 41 percent;
* Clinton beats former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson 49 - 37 percent;
* Clinton bests former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 50 - 37 percent;
* Illinois Sen. Barack Obama gets 42 percent to Giuliani's 41 percent, but gets 41 percent to McCain's 42 percent;
* Obama tops Thompson 46 - 34 percent and beats Romney 46 - 32 percent;
* Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards beats Giuliani 47 - 38 percent; tops McCain 46 - 38 percent; tops Thompson 50 - 32 percent and bests Romney 50 - 30 percent.

Late Update: Looking at these numbers again, I should have focussed this post more on Edwards. He is beating Rudy, McCain, Romney and Thompson by larger margins than Hillary is.

• After last night's debate, in the Fox News spin room*, a Frank Luntz focus group gave the debate win to John McCain, a thumbs-down to Rudy Giuliani.

• As usual, Mike Huckabee got in a good joke, when the candidates were asked about Fred Thompson's absence: "I was scheduled to be on Jay Leno tonight, but I gave up my spot to somebody else because I'd rather be here in New Hampshire."

• The candidates were asked about Larry Craig, and whether or not he should be reconsidering his resignation. He got no support al at all from either Sam Brownback or Duncan Hunter, who spoke up, and everyone else kept silent.

• John McCain out-hawked Mitt Romney on Iraq, after Romney said the surge was "apparently working." McCain replied. "The surge is working, sir. No, not 'apparently.' It's working."

• Rudy Giuliani was forced to defend his policy of offering aid and police protection to illegal immigrants in New york City: "The problem that I had was I had 400,000 illegal immigrants, roughly, in New York City. And I had a city that was the crime capital of America ... If you are an illegal immigrant in New York City and a crime is committed against you, I want you to report that. Because lo and behold, the next time a crime is committed, it could be against a citizen or a legal immigrant."

• John McCain burnished his military credentials: "I was once the commanding officer of the largest squadron in the United States Navy. I didn't manage it. I led it." He added, "I want our troops home with honor. Otherwise, we will face catastrophe and genocide in the region."

• Mike Huckabee gave this passionate pro-life argument: "The reason this country has been extraordinarily interested in what's going on to those miners out in Utah is because even though we don't know them, they represent us in the sense that they are human beings, and we don't know their fate. We need to show the same kind of respect for life whether a child is in the womb, or whether in a coal mine, or in a long-term care facility."

• Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee got into a great argument about the Iraq War. After Paul pointed out that Republican obstinacy about the war is costing them elections, Huckabee replied, "Even if we lose elections, we should not lose our honor, and that is more important than the Republican Party." To which Paul replied, "How long — what do we have to pay to save face? That's all we're doing, is saving face. It's time we came home."

• Ron Paul made the libertarian suggestion that we would be better off if the private airlines, rather than the government were responsible for airplane security: "Here is one example when the federal government was involved and they messed it up, and if we put the responsibility on the right people, respected the Second Amendment, I sincerely believe there would have been a lot less chance of 9/11 ever happening."

• Here's a gem from Tom Tancredo: "Yes, I would certainly waterboard. I don't believe that that is, quote, 'torture.'" Tancredo also said, "Political correctness will get us all killed."

• Duncan Hunter argued passionately against closing the prison at Guantanamo, and said the prisoners there in fact have great living conditions. "They have better health care than most Americans," he said. A progressive-minded person would find this statement frightening on multiple levels.


* We apologize for the redundancy.

Here's a key nugget worth checking out from the transcript of Mitch McConnell's press conference today in which he held forth on his private talk with Larry Craig about his future plans:

QUESTION: (OFF-MIKE) if Senator Craig were to run for reelection, would he have your support?

MCCONNELL: I believe he indicated this morning that he – his hope would be that if he got the matter disposed of in Minnesota that he would finish his term. I do not believe he intends to run for re-election.

I don't recall Craig saying this publicly, so one has to presume that McConnell's knowledge of this comes from their little chat today.

As Steve Benen asks, did the two reach an understanding whereby Craig would be allowed to try to clear his name and reenter the Senate, as long as he agrees not to run for reelection, being a horribly tainted candidate at this point? This tidbit from McConnell suggests that this may be exactly what happened. At the very least, Craig appears to have assured McConnell that he wouldn't be running again.

Late Update: This would seem to be reinforced by this exchange from the presser:

QUESTION: Does that mean he has no intention of running for re-election?

MCCONNELL: He'll have to speak for himself, but that was what I thought I heard him say, that his effort would be to complete his term under that set of circumstances.

Fred Thompson has been losing a bunch of top staffers at the perfectly opportune time: Just as he's about to finally declare his candidacy.

Jim Mills, who only weeks ago left his position as a high-ranking Fox News producer in order to join Thompson's communications team, has left the campaign. After about a month in the Thompson camp, Mills has been replaced by former Schwarzenegger spokeswoman Karen Hanretty and Bush 2004 communications staffer Jeff Sadowsky.

And now Jim Geraghty is reporting that Mark Corallo, who was with Thompson at the inception of this campaign and has been his chief press spokesman, is also gone.

Governor Ernie Fletcher (R-KY), who has been trailing badly in the polls against Democratic nominee Steve Beshear, has his third ad up in a series of anti-casino spots. Beshear favors legalized casino gambling, so Fletcher has focused his own campaign on attacking the social ills associated with casinos.

The ad features Stewart Umholtz, state's attorney for Tazewell County, Illinois, explaining to Fletcher the differences in their community after a casino came in. "We didn't have folks stealing money from cemetery associations, or from libraries or from schools, a deputy police chief who was taking money," Umholtz says. "And we didn't have those cases before the casino came to our county, and we have them now. So I think the facts speak for themselves."

Please. Stop. Digging. Please?

Bill Richardson has just hit back at liberal bloggers for their scalding criticism yesterday of his recent suggestion that the Lord wants the first caucuses in the nation to be held in Iowa:

"Bloggers can say whatever they want, but I care about the voters," Richardson told CNN...

"Bloggers say a lot of things. They are an important part of the democratic process," Richardson said. "But no, I didn't put my foot in my mouth. I stand by what I said. I make no apologies about it. Iowa is important, just like South Carolina and New Hampshire."

Aw, come on, the remark was a silly one. Best to remove foot from mouth, admit it and move on.

Republican polling firm Wilson Research Strategies has released a survey showing scandal-plagued Congressman John Doolittle (R-CA) losing to 2006 Democratic nominee Charlie Brown by a lopsided 51%-31% margin. Also, Doolittle only takes 34% in a Republican primary, barely ahead of primary challenger Mike Holmes' 28%.

Doolittle currently faces multiple challengers in the primary, which could have the unintended consequence of helping him in a divided field. But the message being sent to Republicans from the leak of this poll is clear: If the GOP nominates Doolittle, they'll lose — even in a district where Republicans enjoy an 18-point registration edge.

(Via Kos.)

Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney are both enjoying huge leads in their respective primaries in Michigan, according to American Research Group:

Democrats:
Clinton 43%
Obama 21%
Edwards 14%
Richardson 5%

Republicans:
Romney 39%
Giuliani 13%
Thompson 12%
McCain 9%
Gingrich 7%

Hillary's lead here is about on track with her national lead, and Romney's advantage comes from his family roots in the state — his father George was governor of Michigan in the 1960's.

Then again, at the rate things are going in Michigan — which is now trying to hold its primary on January 15 — the primary might not count for much if the national party committees take away all the delegates.

Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD), who has been out of the Senate since his near-fatal brain hemorrhage this past December, returned to his office for the first time, to much press coverage:

More photos of his Capitol Hill "homecoming" are available here.

Johnson also did a brief press conference at his office, flanked by Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-SD) and Senator John Thune (R-SD). When asked what the next big milestone would be in his recovery, he answered, "An inch at a time."

As noted below, GOP Senate leader Mitch McConnell gave a press conference today at which he commented on a private conversation he'd just had with Senator Larry Craig.

McConnell recounted that Craig told him he'd be continuing to fight the charges against him and wouldn't necessarily be resigning -- and would try to get the case dismissed and return to the Senate.

What does McConnell think of Craig's decision? He was asked that question repeatedly at the press conference.

A full transcript of the presser has just landed in our inbox. We have it for you after the jump.

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Crazier and crazier. Now GOP Senate leader Mitch McConnell has gone and said at a press conference and said that Larry Craig won't be resigning if he's ultimately exonerated of the charges against him.

As you know, in an abrupt turnaround, Craig has vowed to clear himself of the charges he pled guilty to, which could apparently entail trying to withdraw his guilty plea, then seeking to have the charges dismissed, or ultimately prevailing at trial.

Now McConnell has weighed in on the latest twist in the case, and surprisingly, he declined to be directly critical of Craig's decision to fight on. McConnell said the following, according to CNN's footage of the press conference:

MCCONNELL: I heard from Sen. Craig this morning. He called me to give me an update on where he is in order to dispel, as he put it, any confusion that might exist with regard to his intention.

So let me relate to you his comment -- he said that he is going to try to get the case in Minneapolis dismissed, that if he is unable to have that disposed of prior to Sept. 30, it is his intention to resign from the Senate as he expressed last Saturday. If he is able to get he case favorably disposed of in Minneapolis it would be his intention to come back to the Senate, to deal with the ethics committee case that he knows he will have, and to try to finish his term.

So whatever confusion may have been created in the last few days, as of this morning that is his view about where he is headed.

There's still a host of things that need to be unraveled here. What exactly would exoneration entail here? Is Craig hoping that if the plea is withdrawn that a judge will toss the case based on some legal argument? If Craig is forced to go to trial on the charges, will he resign before trial, since the case is unlikely to be resolved by the end of this month? If it does go to trial past Sept. 30 and things look positive for him, will Craig say that he's still not resigning?

And the most puzzling question of all, Why on earth is McConnell putting up with this? He seems to be stopping short of condeming this course of action here. But getting Craig out of the way and putting up a new candidate is far and away the best chance the GOP has to hold the seat -- whether or not Craig is exonerated in the end. And this course only keeps this sordid tale in the headlines in the weeks ahead.

Late Update: Here's video of McConnell's appearance:

Later Update Here's a transcript of McConnell's full press conference.

Big news out of Washington State: Netroots heroine Darcy Burner's primary opponent has just dropped out of the race and thrown his support to Burner, reports the Seattle Times.

In a clear victory for Atrios, Kos, OpenLeft and other liberal blogs and bloggers who have been pushing her candidacy and raising cash for her, Burner's opponent even cited her Web-fueled fundraising as a key reason for his decision:

"Our fundraising was going great, but Darcy Burner's campaign has been phenomenal," Tom said. "Darcy has over 3,200 contributors, an incredible statement to her broad base of support."

Norman Hsu, the big Dem fundraiser who had all his contributions dumped in his lap by Dems when the news broke that he was a fugitive from fraud, has now mysteriously vanished.

He was supposed to show up today for a bail hearing, but now even his lawyer doesn't know where he is. As Ben Smith says, it's getting harder to resist the "mystery man" storyline -- or, if you prefer, the "Hsu is this guy" storyline.

Former Congresswoman Jennifer Dunn (R-WA) dies at 66 of a pulmonary embolism. Apparently she was the first freshman female member of Congress to crack the GOP House leadership circle.

Now that another legislative showdown over Iraq is looming, John Edwards is returning to a theme that early on animated his campaign: The insistence that Congress stand its ground against the White House and force an end to the war.

On a conference call just now with reporters, John Edwards reiterated that message, this time in light of the upcoming reports from the White House and General Petraeus. He delivered a simple message: If Congress can't get an Iraq funding bill with withdrawal timetables into law, it shouldn't pass one at all.

"It’s time for Congress to stand its ground," Edwards said on the call, as transcribed by TPM's Eric Kleefeld. "If there’s no timetable, then Congress should not submit a bill."

Edwards' move comes as some analysts have argued that its critical for him to show some sort of dramatic improvement in the polls soon. A return to the theme that successfully drove his campaign early on could provide a needed boost -- and help pull the the Iraq debate to the "left" in the Dem primary, as he did earlier in the race.

With an eye on the coming Iraq showdown, Edwards has launched a drive to raise money to run this full page ad in Roll Call, where every member of Congress will see it:

Just in from Roll Call:

Rep. Paul Gillmor (R-Ohio) has died. Details of his passing have not yet been made public.

CNN adds that he "was found dead in his apartment Wednesday," according to a Republican leadership aide.

More when we know it.

Late Update: The Associated Press adds that according to a Gillmor aide, "the body of the 68-year-old Republican was found by staff members who went to his apartment after he failed to show up for work."

Later Update: The Hill reports that sources believe the cause of death was a heart attack.

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are now competing in yet another category: Idealistic campaign ads.

Both candidates have just unveiled new ads to run in Iowa. The subject of both? "Change," a note the two candidates are vying to sound, now that polls are showing that Dem primary voters value the capacity to enact "change" as the most valuable quality in a Presidential nominee. Obama, of course, has been trying to present himself as the race's real change agent, while Hillary has been trying to talk about "change" via her "experience" message, arguing that you can't bring about change without experience.

So here's Obama's new ad, called "Change," discussing the candidate's work on ethics reform. "It wasn't to score points with the powers in Washington," the narrator says, "it was because Barack Obama believes government should work for people. And together, we can make that happen."

And Hillary has a new ad in New Hampshire and Iowa, entitled "Ready For Change." "If we have the will, she has the strength," the narrator proclaims. "If we have the conviction, she has the experience, if we're ready for change, she's ready to lead."

As Ben Smith noted, "And so the actual media campaign begins."

Larry Craig's efforts to wiggle off the hook are continuing today, with his lawyer now saying that the Senate leadership has no business calling for an ethics probe of his men's room conduct, as it did last week.

An unbroken line of precedents dating back 220 years makes clear the Senate does not consider misdemeanor private conduct to be a fit subject of inquiry, Washington attorney Stan Brand asserted after aides to Craig said the senator is reconsidering his decision to resign.

"We ought to seek to have the committee dismiss this outright," Brand said of a Senate ethics panel's investigation. "The Republican leadership called for an ethics investigation that had nothing to do with his office," Brand said on NBC's "Today" show.

Wow, they're really backtracking on all fronts now.

We've got a call in to the ethics committee to verify whether the Senate does indeed steer clear of probing misdemeanor private conduct. We'll keep you posted.

Late Update: Here's some video of Craig's lawyer trying to call off the probe dogs:

Later Update: Craig's lawyers delivered a letter to the Senate Ethics Committee today reiterating their demand that they drop their probe into Craig. You can read a copy of it in our TPM Document Collection.

Meanwhile, The New York Times fills in some detail on the legal situation:

The U.S. Senate Select Committee on Ethics, established in 1964, is a bipartisan group of three Democrats and three Republicans. Senate ethics rules generally cover financial, employment and campaign rules. In February, for instance, the committee adopted new rules limiting travel paid by lobbyists, in response to the Jack Abramoff scandal.

The committee rules say it is authorized to “receive complaints and investigate allegations of improper conduct which may reflect upon the Senate, violations of law, violations of the Senate Code of Official Conduct, and violations of rules and regulations of the Senate, relating to the conduct of individuals in the performance of their duties as Members of the Senate, or as officers or employees of the Senate.”

I'm no lawyer, but that sounds loose enough to justify the current probe into Craig's actions.

Mitt Romney loves jogging. His most recent ad in Iowa and New Hampshire featured him jogging — a sign of his energy and hunger for the job, a sign that he's running hard for the Presidency, unlike the lackluster Fred Thompson.

Now he has released a new ad, running in the crucial primary state of South Carolina, entitled "Energy," featuring a short cameo by his wife Ann. And the jogging footage is in this one, too:

In addition to the jogging footage, the narrator extols Romney's experience in business and government. "The Republican Governor who stood up and cut spending instead of raising taxes," the narrators say, "and turned around our most Democratic state."

All in all, not a bad ad. But one does have to wonder how effective a Republican primary ad can be that actually says "Democratic," with the "-ic" suffix.

Here's the first TV ad from Fred Thompson, featuring the candidate talking to the camera and inviting viewers to check out his Web site:

In the ad, Thompson sticks with the current GOP theme that debate about Iraq is weakening the country. "We can't allow ourselves to become a weaker, less prosperous and more divided nation," he says. "Today, as before, the fate of millions across the world depends on the unity and resolve of the American people."

Fun fact: Thompson is running this ad tonight on Fox News, during the Republican debate that he's otherwise skipping. How's that for unity and resolve?

It's about time.

One of the things we've been wondering here at Election Central World Headquarters is when one of the GOP Presidential candidates would stop ceding Rudy his alleged national security credentials and point out that he doesn't have any sort of counter-terrorism or foreign policy experience to speak of.

Well, now John McCain has gone and done just that:

And for the first time Mr. McCain, who has a lengthy résumé in the Navy and in Congress, questioned the foreign policy credentials of his main rivals for the Republican presidential nomination: Mr. Giuliani, a former New York City mayor and prosecutor, and Mitt Romney, a former Massachusetts governor and a businessman.

“I think the nation respects the mayor’s leadership after 9/11, and I do, too, and I think he displayed leadership at a time that Americans needed some steady hand, and I think that his conduct was very laudatory following 9/11,” Mr. McCain said, when asked why so many voters identify Mr. Giuliani with the issue of terrorism.

But he went on to say: “I don’t think it translates, necessarily, into foreign policy or national security expertise. I know of nothing in his background that indicates that he has any experience in it, with him or Romney.”

The Romney angle is less interesting here, because Romney, unlike Rudy, isn't trying to run for President based on the illusion that he has national security experience.

Until now, the GOP campaigns have basically been calculating that bringing up Rudy's paucity of such experience was a non-starter, and the fact that McCain is now hitting Rudy in this fashion is an important development that could signal a new phase in the GOP primary. The question now is whether it's too late -- whether McCain's criticism of Rudy will be perceived as desperation on his part or whether it's too late to cut through the fog of 9/11 mythology that Rudy has managed to enshroud himself in.

Whatever you think of McCain, it must be galling for him, as someone who served in the Navy, was shot down and tortured, and is currently the ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, to see voters according Rudy national security credentials based on little more than the fact that he hit the political jackpot by being Mayor of New York when the planes hit. The surprise here is that it took McCain so long to state the obvious.

Reminder: GOP Debate Tonight — Thompson Skipping
The Republican candidates meet in New Hampshire tonight at 9 p.m. ET for a debate on Fox News. Fred Thompson will not be showing up, instead opting to appear on The Tonight Show With Jay Leno. However, Thompson will be running a 30-second ad promoting his candidacy throughout today — including during the GOP debate. "We can't allow ourselves to become a weaker, less prosperous and more divided nation. Today, as before, the fate of millions across the world depends on the unity and resolve of the American people," Thompson says in the ad, then guiding viewers to his Web site.

Larry Craig Trying To Back Out Of Resignation
An aide to Senator Larry Craig (R-ID) said last night that he is reconsidering his decision to resign on September 30, and will stay on if he can clear his name. As it turns out, Craig planned this gambit the whole time. And how do we know this? On Saturday, the day he announced his resignation, Craig tried to call his attorney in order to explain the secret plan — and he left the voicemail at the wrong number.

Giuliani Calls For Reform Of Homeland Security
Speaking in Mississippi yesterday, Giuliani argued that the Department of Homeland Security needs to be restructured in order to function better at the regional and local level. Giuliani argued that the government needs to be more focused on bolstering first responders and efforts on the ground. The former mayor did not hesitate to include frequent references to 9/11 to bolster his case, telling the crowd that he saw "a man throwing himself out of 101st, 102nd floor of the north tower.”

Oprah Considers Greater Role In Obama Campaign
Oprah Winfrey has already done plenty for Barack Obama, lending her influential endorsement and organizing major fundraising efforts, including an event on Saturday at her California home. But she may go even further. The Washington Post reports today that the TV superstar is in talks with Obama's advisors to take on a more active role in the campaign, possibly delivering stump speeches and more openly campaigning for Obama in the media.

Richardson Talks Up Mass Transportation In Iowa
Bill Richardson told an Iowa crowd that American transportation policy is "fixated on highways", leading to traffic congestion and energy inefficiency. The candidate said he believed alternatives such as light rail and commuter rail transportations would reduce traffic and preserve open spaces. He also said that the federal government should cooperate with state and local authorities to repair and upgrade the country's infrastructure, including bridges and the nation's electric grid.

Niki Tsongas Wins Democratic Primary In Special Election
Niki Tsongas, wife of the late Senator Paul Tsongas (D-MA), won the Democratic primary yesterday for the seat of former Congressman Marty Meehan (D-MA), who resigned to become chancellor of the University of Massachusetts at Lowell. Meehan took 36% in a five-person field, followed by Lowell= City Councilor Eileen Donoghue at 31%. The district is heavily Democratic, so Tsongas is to be considered a strong favorite over Republican Jim Ogonowski, a farmer and retired Air Force officer who lost a brother on 9/11. Ogonowski has already said he would decline the offer if President Bush wanted to campaign for him.

Doug Lamborn Apologizes
Congressman Doug Lamborn (R-CO) has apologized for leaving a voicemail on the home phone of local Republican activists Jonathan and Anna Bartha in reaction to their letter to the editor criticizing him — a voicemail that seemed to threaten legal action. However, Lamborn still insists that their letter attacking him was false. “Therefore, when my record is not accurately portrayed, I am quick and passionate in attempting to set the record straight,” Lamborn wrote in a letter. “Unfortunately, recent events have risen to a level that was unintended.”

Richardson Jokes About Money From Lobbyists
Bill Richardson told a good joke this time, explaining why he has no problem taking money from federal lobbyists: "What am I supposed to [do]? I have enough trouble raising money to run a campaign." Good one. After that, he then talked about how not all lobbyists are bad — with many representing such groups as nurses, environmentalists and senior citizens. "The unions have lobbyists in Washington," he said. "I take money from them."

McCain Has Funny Exchange With High Schooler
John McCain faced a tough question today on the age issue from a New Hampshire high school students, who asked if a President McCain might die in office or develop Alzheimer's disease. McCain shot back in a sarcastic style. "Thanks for the question, you little jerk ... you’re drafted," McCain said to laughs from the crowd.

RNC Threatening Rogue Primary States
The Republican National Committee, like their Democratic counterparts, have been forced into the position of threatening state parties such as Florida and Michigan with having delegates taken away if they don't move their primaries to the officially blessed date of February 5 or later. "If a state chooses to go outside the window, they are automatically penalized," said one RNC official. "It's not a may; it's a shall." And in the case of the RNC, the rules are even more stringent — they've been put in the position of having rules that don't even recognize Iowa's and New Hampshire's prerogatives to vote in January.

Rothenberg: Thompson's Delay Has Hurt Him Badly
Stuart Rothenberg argues in his new column in Roll Call that Fred Thompson's delayed declaration has badly damaged his chances. "He has lost potential supporters and contributors to other campaigns. And he has limited the strategic options of his campaign," Rothenberg writes. "But maybe more than anything else, he gave an opening first to Romney and more recently to Huckabee that neither would have had. So instead of squeezing them out of the race in the summer, Fred Thompson finds himself squeezed in the fall."

New Hampshire Draft Gore Group Claims 1,000 Signatures
A New Hampshire-based group seeking to draft Al Gore to run against for president claims to have collected the signatures of 1,000 New Hampshire voters. "The results of our petition drive indicate that there is a strong undercurrent of support for Al Gore in New Hampshire which is not reflected accurately in polls or in the opinions of visiting out-of-state media pundits," said Farrell Seiler, the group's statewide coordinator.

This afternoon GOP leaders rushed to condemn the deeply pessimistic GAO report released today finding that Iraq has only met three of 18 benchmarks set to measure political progress. Here's GOP House leader John Boehner:

"The GAO report really amounts to asking someone to kick an 80-yard field goal and criticizing them when they came up 20 or 25 yards short."

It's interesting that Boehner would criticize the fact that this GAO report laid out benchmarks and tried to determine whether they'd been met. Because Boehner voted for the big Iraq supplemental spending bill that mandated that this report be undertaken and mandated that it hold the Iraqi government to strict standards. Boehner voted for the same approach he's now disparaging.

Meanwhile, at a press conference today, GOP Senate leader Mitch McConnell also dismissed the GAO report. He opined that the report that really mattered was the one coming from General Petraeus (the one being written by the White House). McConnell's justification for this claim: The Petraeus report was "written into law."

This is also intriguing, since the GAO report was also written into law, when the supplemental was passed -- and McConnell voted for it, too. McConnell, too, voted for the approach he's now dismissing.

Statements from Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi, meanwhile, are after the jump.

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James Carville has repeatedly identified himself as a Hillary supporter (though he doesn't work for the Hillary campaign). But he diverged pretty wildly from Camp Hillary's message yesterday, when he had this to say about Hillary's lead in national polls on Meet the Press:

MR. CARVILLE: Well, first of all, she’s gotten a lot, lot stronger since this campaign started. I mean, it—I’d—to be fair, I would be more than fair to her because, as I said, I’m very sympathetic to her. Everybody says she’s overperformed, and now she’s starting to lead in all of these national polls. These things are pretty sort of meaningless at, at this point. Her negatives are nowhere near as high as President Bush’s was before the election of 2004.

That assertion, of course, might be contested by another Hillary supporter -- Hillary pollster Mark Penn, who likes to argue that the national polls show that Hillary's "better positioned today than ever before to become the next President of the United States."

Bill Richardson: Master of damage control.

Richardson has now attempted to clarify his remarks from yesterday, in which he said that there were "reasons related to the Lord," plus the United States Constitution, for the Iowa caucus to be held before all the other state contests. This line, understandably, has been widely mocked today.

Now Richardson has just appeared on MSNBC, where he explained the remark thusly:

"That was an off-the-cuff comment about the importance of Iowa. This was an Iowa crowd — I'm trying to score points, I'm moving up in the polls. So I don't consider that a mistake — that was an off-the-cuff comment, and I stand very strongly behind the fact that Iowa and New Hampshire should be first."

Meanwhile, Richardson's campaign has been working hard to brush off the comment as having been a "bad joke."

"Well it was actually meant, if you'd been at the event, it was meant as a joke, and that's all it was," Richardson deputy communications director Katie Roberts told Election Central.

After we pointed out that people at the event walked away confused by the remark, according to the Des Moines Register, Roberts conceded to us that the joke simply fell flat: "Sometimes jokes work, sometimes jokes don't work."

There is something that a good joke can at least accomplish: Scoring points.

As expected, Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm has signed into law the provision moving the state's primary up to January 15. That puts it temporarily ahead of New Hampshire's contest.

Up next: New Hampshire is expected to leapfrog the leapfrogger and move its forward, too -- as is Iowa. National primary day, anyone?

As noted below, when The Washington Post reported on a draft last week of the Government Accountability Office report indicating pessimism about Iraq, the White House balked at the conclusions and the Pentagon reportedly pushed to get some of its conclusions changed.

Now that we have the final GAO report, it's clear that neither the White House's displeasure nor whatever pressure the Pentagon exerted on the GAO succeeded in accomplishing this goal.

Just as the draft report did, the final report concluded that the Iraqi government had met only three of 18 benchmarks for political success.

The Pentagon did apparently manage to swing a couple small changes -- in the "partially met" category. The original draft said that only two benchmarks -- the formation of governmental regions and the allocation and expenditure of $10 billion for reconstruction -- had been "partially met."

The final report, by contrast, says that four benchmarks have been "partially met" -- the two above, plus two other security benchmarks, the chief one being the provision of three trained and ready brigades to support Baghdad operations.

Bottom line: The Pentagon failed to get the report's main conclusions changed.

Okay, here you go -- we've just obtained a copy of the hotly-anticipated Government Accountability Office report painting an extremely dire picture of the political situation in Iraq.

The report is meant to be released today to the press at 2 P.M., but you can read excerpts of it right now. We've just posted the report's summary of its conclusions, including a chart indicating the report's findings, in our TPM Document Collection. You can read it right here.

The report found that the Iraqi government has fully met only three of 18 benchmarks for political progress set for it, has only partially met four others, and failed to meet 11 -- an extremely grim picture of the situation there. The report is significant because it was produced by the nonpartisan GAO and provides a considerably more pessimistic view of the situation in Iraq than General Petraeus and the White House are expected to provide next week.

The Washington Post reported on the findings contained in a draft of the GAO report last week but didn't post a copy. What you're now reading is the final copy, and it came to slightly different conclusions than the draft reviewed by the Post.

In a measure of the report's potential political impact, the report is so pessimistic about the situation in Iraq that the Pentagon reportedly pushed to have it revised when word of its conclusions leaked in The Post.

The final report finds that the Iraqi government has met one of eight legislative benchmarks and two of nine security benchmarks. A chart from the report laying out what has been met and what hasn't is right here.

Read the report's summary here. More soon.

Update: The full report is here.

Larry Craig's two kids sat down for an interview with ABC's Good Morning America today. The kids said they'd asked their father some tough questions about his wide stance, and surprisingly, they were told by their pop that the charges are all bogus:

"He was a victim of circumstance, in the wrong place at the wrong time," said Michael Craig of his father's arrest.

Michael Craig and his sister, Shea Howell, decided to speak out about the scandal, but not before making sure that they had all the answers necessary to confidently defend their father.

Before standing in support behind the senator at Saturday's news conference, Craig and Howell asked their father tough questions. They wanted to know whether he had ever been in any way unfaithful to their mother.

"No legalities, no technicalities. … We wanted to know exactly what happened," Craig said.

"The wrong place at the wrong time" -- well, yes, as TPM's Eric Kleefeld just noted, if you're cruising in a public men's room at the same moment when a police sting designed to nab cruisers is underway, that would indeed constitute being in the wrong place at the wrong time...

Some interesting new poll numbers from Gallup. When Dems and Dem-leaning independents are asked which of the following is more important to them in deciding whom to support:

...that the candidate has experience getting things done in the current system in Washington, (or) that the candidate has a strong desire to change the system for getting things done in Washington?

...some seventy three percent choose change, while only 26% pick experience. Hillary, of course, has emphasized her "strength and experience," while Obama has presented himself as the race's real change agent.

Still, Gallup adds the caveat that the numbers don't lead to any easy conclusions -- it's unclear whether Dem primary voters see this as an "either or" proposition, Gallup claims. Large numbers of voters value both qualities, with 96% saying that the ability to change things is a desirable characteristic, while 56% say that experience is desirable. And a sizable bloc see the lack of experience as a serious liability.

Muddling things further, Hillary, of course, has sought to meld the "experience" and "change" messages by saying that you need the former to bring about the latter.

Jonathan Martin has gotten his hands on an advance copy of that new book out about the Bush presidency, Dead Certain.

The author, Robert Draper, had access to Bush, so it has plenty of bits that tell the story the way the President wants it told. For instance, Bush told Draper that he's cried a lot over the burdens of his office, and we also learn that Bush intends to found a "Freedom Institute" upon leaving office.

Nonetheless, there are also plenty of unflattering parts, too. Courtesy of Jonathan Martin, here are some of the more interesting tidbits and highlights:

• At the 1992 Republican convention, Bush tried to get John McCain to attack Bill Clinton for being a draft-dodger.

• During the 2000 campaign, Bush often cited the case of Texas juvenile offender Johnny Baulkmon as a rehabilitation success story. Baulkmon has since gone on to become a petty criminal, is currently in Texas state prison, and describes Bush as "complete trash, a horrible evil person."

• It was not Karl Rove's decision to go after traditionally Democratic West Virginia's five electoral votes in 2000 — a shrewd choice that swung the election. Instead, it was the idea of a 22-year old aide who had to actively make the case to Rove and company.

• After Bush's disastrous performance at his first debate with John Kerry, Bush aides Karen Hughes and Dan Bartlett forced Bush to sit down and watch himself on tape: "And so Bush at in his Air Force One suite and watched himself on television acting pissed off – and got pissed off at Bartlett for making him watch himself."

• The Saturday before the 2006 election, Bush insisted that that Republicans would only lose 14 House seats — one less than the Democrats needed to take the majority — and Rove assured him he was right. The Democrats ultimately picked up 30 seats.

George W. Bush: The President Who Cries?
It seems President Bush has at least one thing in common with his constituents. In interviews for Robert Draper's new book, Dead Certain, the President said that he has often wept during his administration's tenure. "I've got God's shoulder to cry on," he told the author. "And I cry a lot. I do a lot of crying in this job. I'll bet I've shed more tears than you can count, as president."

Richardson Attributes Iowa Caucus To God
Bill Richardson made an intriguing declaration to an Iowa crowd: "Iowa, for good reason, for constitutional reasons, for reasons related to the Lord, should be the first caucus and primary." One wonders exactly which clause in the Constitution specifies this — and furthermore, when God made such a pronouncement, as well.

Bush Teases At Future Troop Reductions
During his surprise visit yesterday to an air base in Iraq's Anbar province, President Bush said the surge was going so well that he hinted at possible troop reductions in the future: "General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker tell me if the kind of success we are now seeing continues, it will be possible to maintain the same level of security with fewer American forces."

Gay Blogger Mike Rogers: I'm Not Finished
Blogger Mike Rogers, a gay rights activist who forcibly outs anti-gay politicians who are themselves gay, says he's not stopping after his work against Larry Craig. "If you're a closeted Democrat or Republican and you don't bash gays or vote against gay rights to gain political points, I won't out you," said Rogers. However, some gay rights activists object to the practice of outing. "To many of us, coming out is a process, a very personal journey dictated by the individual," said Mark Agrast, a former aide to the late Congressman Gerry Studds (D-MA).

Today: Special Election Primary In Massachusetts
Today is primary day in a special election for the House seat of former Congressman Marty Meehan (D-MA), who resigned to become chancellor of the University of Massachusetts at Lowell. Five Democrats and two Republicans are running for the seat, with the frontrunner widely considered to be Niki Tsongas, widow of the late Senator Paul Tsongas (D). The district is heavily Democratic, so expect the Dem primary winner to be favored in the general election.

Freshman Dem Sestak Hemorrhaging Staffers
Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA), the retired Navy admiral who defeated incumbent Curt Weldon in 2006, is quickly gaining a reputation for being tough on his staff. According to public records, thirteen have quit this year, leaving an office in which aides are expected to work seven days a week and often fourteen hours a day. Sestak said of the resignations that "Some had other opportunities, some were not the perfect fit," but acknowledged "I have asked a lot of my staff.”

Romney Mocks Thompson's Hamlet Act
During a New Hampshire campaign stop yesterday, Mitt Romney joked with reporters about Fred Thompson's entry into the race, expected to finally happen Wednesday night. "Well, I guess the only comment I'd make to Fred Thompson would be: Why the hurry? Why not take a little longer to think this over?" Romney said. "From my standpoint, if he wants to wait until January or February, that would be ideal."

Edwards Receives Two Union Endorsements
The John Edwards campaign marked the occasion of Labor Day by announcing the endorsements of two unions, the United Steelworkers and the United Mine Workers of America. Together, the two groups have 1.8 million members. A prediction: The mineworkers endorsement will be politically useful, in light of the current controversies involving mine safety and the Utah mine collapse.

Thompson Advisor: Jay Leno Better Than Republican Debate
Fred Thompson advisor Mary Matalin, appearing yesterday on Meet The Press, justified the candidate's decision to skip this Wednesday's Republican debate in New Hampshire and instead appear on Jay Leno. "Who do you think has the largest audience at that time? Jay Leno has 31 percent of the audience at the time immediately preceding the video," Matalin said, referring to the candidate's announcement video set for 12:01 a.m. ET that night. "This is a message-driven campaign, and we want to drive people, and the biggest place to do that was Jay Leno."

The Clintons Go To New Hampshire
Bill Clinton joined his wife yesterday in New Hampshire, promoting her candidacy. "In the forty years I have been voting in presidential elections, Hillary is the best prepared to be president of any non-incumbent I ever had a chance to vote for in my life," he told a crowd. Presumably this statement includes himself, back in 1992 — making it an even more ringing endorsement.

Congressman Leaves Threatening Voice-Mails With Constituents
Via Kos, Congressman Doug Lamborn (R-CO) took an interesting approach to responding to constituents who wrote a negative letter about him to a local newspaper: Lamborn personally called them at home and left intimidating voice-mails. "And like I said I'd rather resolve this on a Scriptural level but if you are unwilling to do that I will be forced to take other steps, which I would rather not have to do," Lamborn said, seeming to threaten legal action against them. Classy.

McCain Criticizes Primary Frontloading, Backs Iowa And New Hampshire
Appearing yesterday in Iowa, John McCain supported the positions of Iowa and New Hampshire as the first nominating contests, and criticized the movement by other states to break into the January territory. "I'm disturbed by the crowding of primaries earlier and earlier," McCain said.

Republicans Ganging Up On Doolittle
A diverse group of Republicans are lining up to challenge scandal-plagued Congressman JOhn Doolittle in the 2008 primary. Auburn city councilman Mike Homes, a moderate who took 33% in the primary last year, says he's in. Also in the race are state Assemblyman Ted Gaines, a conservative and former Doolittle ally, as well as Iraq War veteran and pro-war activist Eric Egland. Doolittle defeated Democrat Charlie Brown by only 49%-46% last year in a Republican-leaning district, and Brown is running again.

Hillary To Skip Rogue Primaries
Hillary Clinton's campaign has now pledged to avoid primaries that violate the Democratic National Committee's official calendar, such as Florida and Michigan. “We believe Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina play a unique and special role in the nominating process,” said campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle. With Hillary joining Dodd, Biden, Richardson, Obama and Edwards, the top six Democrats have now promised to boycott rogue primaries.

Tim Johnson Returning To The Senate
Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD), who has been absent from the Senate since his near-fatal brain hemorrhage in December and subsequent rehabilitation, will return to the Senate this Wednesday. “The senator wants to run full days as much as he possibly can, but there will be a natural transition period back into being back here in the office,” said spokeswoman Julianne Fisher. “It’s just a matter of adjusting things.”

Schumer: Dems Can Win Idaho
Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY), chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said that Democrats can win the Idaho seat of GOP Senator Larry Craig, whose resignation takes effect September 30. "Democrats can win in Idaho, and we intend to run a competitive race," Schumer said. It has been widely reported that Republican Governor Butch Otter will appoint Lt. Governor Jim Risch to the seat. Former Democratic Congressman Larry LaRocco is currently in the race. And even without the Idaho seat in play, Republicans are very pessimistic about 2008 Senate races.

Biden Campaign Offers "Adopt-An-Ad" Fundraising Pitch
Joe Biden's campaign is putting forward an interesting fundraising pitch to supporters, asking for money in terms of what a particular dollar amount can buy in Iowa TV time. For example, $100 pays for an ad during Meet The Press in the Sioux City market, $300 buys an ad during the Late Show With David Letterman for Des Moines, and $600 buys a commercial during the evening news in Cedar Rapids.

Richardson Calls For College Loan Forgiveness With National Service
Bill Richardson proposed yesterday that the federal government should forgive a portion of college loans in exchange for a year national service: "As part of your college loan structure _ in other words we'll pay them off, if you give your country one year of national service: work in a forest, clean up a forest ... work in a hospital, go in the military, go in the Peace Corps, go in Vista."

Hunter Wins Texas Straw Poll
Underdog GOP candidate Congressman Duncan Hunter won the Texas Republican straw poll yesterday, with 534 votes out of about 1,300 cast. Fred Thompson was second with 266 votes, and Ron Paul was third with 217 votes. The top-tier candidates did not participate.