Warner's Retirement: A Huge Opportunity For Democrats
Now that long-time Senator John Warner (R-VA) has announced his retirement, both parties will have candidates lining up for the seat in 2008.
It's the first open-seat Senate contest in Virginia since 1988 and potentially the first competitive open-seat race since 1982, when Republican Paul Trible edged out Dem Richard Davis for the seat of retiring independent Senator Harry Byrd Jr., the seat now held by Democrat Jim Webb.
How will it shake out? Our full rundown after the jump.
The Democratic nomination is almost certain to go to former Governor Mark Warner, a self-made telecom multi-millionaire who was elected in 2001 and left office in January 2006 with sky-high approval ratings. Mark Warner briefly explored running for president, only to bow out last Fall.
Fun fact: Not only is Mark Warner not related to John Warner, they actually ran against each other in 1996. John Warner won that contest by only 54%-46%, his closest re-election fight ever, and this was before Mark Warner went on to become a massively popular statewide politician. So how hard could it be for Mark Warner to pick up the remaining four points he needs to win — particularly since he won't be running against a well-funded and well-established longtime incumbent?
On the Republican side, John Warner's protégé Congressman Tom Davis is expected to run for Senate — likely opening up his Northern Virginia House seat to a Democratic takeover. There remain a large group of conservative activists who distrust Davis, so he may face a right-wing challenger such as former Governor Jim Gilmore, who recently dropped out of the Republican presidential race after running a truly dismal campaign.
So can the Republican hold the seat? Probably not, due to Mark Warner's popularity. But the GOP definitely has a fighting chance, given the state's Republican lean in presidential election years. Considering Gilmore's unpopularity when he left office — succeeded by Mark Warner — and his embarrassing campaign for the presidency, he would likely be a much easier opponent for Mark Warner to defeat than Tom Davis, who has a political base in the swing areas of Fairfax County and Northern Virginia as a whole.
Bottom line: Mark Warner is heavily favored to win the seat for the Democrats, but it's not certain just yet.
Comments (16)
CT Voter wrote on August 31, 2007 3:04 PM:Mark Warner briefly explored running for president, only to bow out last Fall.
Sort of suddenly, it seemed to me. So why did he bow out? That's why I wonder if he's even going to run for Senator--did something from his past (or present) cause him to step down from the Presidential race, and will that same something influence whether he'll run for Senator?
daniel wrote on August 31, 2007 3:13 PM:CT Voter: He's been through enough brutal elections as a dem in a GOP state that if he had some skeletons, they'd be out.
His own stated reasons were to spend some time with his family, and I believe him. He left long before the "Thompson-Line," at a time when candidates really do think about it and then say, "nah, maybe not."
mattstan wrote on August 31, 2007 3:14 PM:What, no George Allen comeback speculation?
linda wrote on August 31, 2007 3:16 PM:**Warner's Retirement: A Huge Opportunity For Democrats**
i'm sure with the sterling leadership of the democrats, the seat will safely remain in the republicans' hands...
Mike wrote on August 31, 2007 3:57 PM:Keep dreaming linda...
You are simply crazy if you truly believe any republican will win SAFELY against Mark Warner. Mark Warner would stomp either Allen or Gilmore and should win safely against Tom Davis. I'm sure with all the republican scandals, the seat will safely become a Democratic pickup.
What are the chances of Warner being a Veep pick?
RonK, Seattle wrote on August 31, 2007 4:05 PM:Is Mark Warner in? Sounds like we're counting our chickens before they're conceived.
CT Voter wrote on August 31, 2007 4:10 PM:daniel: I hope you are right. This pickup will begin to neutralize our very own best Senator ever, Joe Lieberman.
justicat wrote on August 31, 2007 4:44 PM:Mark Warner running for the Warner seat is about a done a deal as you will ever see in Virginia politics. 99.9% I'd say.
Grandison wrote on August 31, 2007 5:22 PM:Don't forget former Republican Governor and Senator George Allen. Even though Jim Webb beat him last year, George Allen would be a formidable opponent for Mark Warner. If they were the two candidates in a Senate race, I'd rank the match-up 50-50.
Anonymous wrote on August 31, 2007 5:28 PM:If Warner does not run it would either be for health or family reasons we have not heard a hint about to date or because he's running for VP which I think would help the Dems at the national level. He is a prohibitive favorite to win the Senate seat if he does run for it. The bigger question really is who would run as the Dem candidate if Warner does not. Is Kaine a viable choice?
philjames wrote on August 31, 2007 5:30 PM:Grandison: Whatever you're smoking please pass it here. No way Allen matches up against Warner, even counting the part of VA that should have been ceded to KY years ago.
Anon wrote on August 31, 2007 5:54 PM:I don't usually like to spread rumors, but I was so disappointed when Mark Warner decided not to run for prez when he seemed like a shoe in for at least VP if not the whole thing, that I needed answers...I've heard chatter about transgressions that would be bound to come out in a nation wide race. I don't think he'll go for Veep. I think he's in for the Senate race.
ohiomeister wrote on August 31, 2007 6:11 PM:VA demographics have changed enough since 1996's Warner vs. Warner match-up that Mark would have had a pretty good chance against John this time around.
PHB wrote on August 31, 2007 7:22 PM:CT-Voter: dream on.
The obvious reason for a Democrat not to enter the Presidential race is that there are three top tier candidates already that the party will be only to pleased to back. There isn't a stop Obama or a stop Edwards movement and the only people saying stop Hilary are republicans.
That isn't the case for the GOP. Giuliani is a serial adulterer with a control complex who sited the NYC emercgency control center in a known terrorist target so he would have a handy love nest in walking distance of his office. Giuliani is also a longstanding supporter of and fundraiser for the IRA, a terrorist group that has caused more deaths than Al Qaeda.
McCain is a pathetic shell having abandonded the straight talk express for the George W Bush torture train. And Romney is a transparent phoney who would lose by a landslide because a party based on peddling bigotry is not going to get their base to come out for a mormon.
Gracedog wrote on August 31, 2007 7:48 PM:Typo watch: the previous GOP victor of open Senate seat was Paul Trible.
As in "the trouble with" but spelled differently. Have no memory of why he did not stay in politics longer....
Would bet on Mark Warner for this seat, and he'd be an excellent successor to John Warner.
Hope whoever wins maintains John Warner's gracious manner and genuine bipartisanship.
