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O'Hanlon Sighting: He Says Obama's No Nukes Comment Was Right!

Hawkish Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution -- a quintessential serious centrist Beltway foreign policy analyst who's been much maligned of late for saying the surge is working -- has now weighed in on the Obama-Hillary no-nukes flap.

His somewhat counterintuitive verdict? Obama was right:

Michael O'Hanlon, a Brookings Institution scholar, said Obama "clearly gave the right answer."

"He's certainly right to say you would never use a nuclear weapon to get Osama bin Laden," he said. He said that if intelligence officials were able to locate bin Laden with the precision required for a nuclear attack, they would also be able to catch or kill him by more conventional means that would not signal to the world that using nuclear force is acceptable.

One would have expected that such a quintessential member of the D.C. foreign policy establishment would immediately denounce Obama's line as a "gaffe." But he didn't. Go figure.


43 Comments

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Now I know Obama is in trouble. I believe that the terrorist in Pakistan are sending flowers to Obama and O'Hanlon.

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So frustrating. Why do we care? The media still goes to O'Hanlon for comment. You know what? Go the the three Election Central threads on this topic and you'll see a real, well thought out debate on the whole thing. You'll see a bunch of "average" people dealing with the complexities of the issue in more detail than O'Hanlon has.

I know this sounds like dumb blog triumphalism, but... seriously... We hashed this out well before O'Hanlon showed up with a sound bite.

thosethingswesay.blogspot.com

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I believe that the terrorist in Pakistan are sending flowers to Obama and O'Hanlon.

That's what it says on the package. Might want to check it with a geiger counter.

Best, Terry

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Heh, I agree. There are also some great comments on the matter in Tapped's comment section and Matt Yglesias' comments sections.

That being said, lets actually praise Anne Kornblut here more than anything else, for reporting on the "what" of the policy rather than exclusively the "how" of the politics.

What's truly damaging to our democracy is not when Obama actually gives answers to questions (right or wrong), nor is it when Hillary attacks those answers (whether or not her attack is absolutely freakin crazy). What hurts is when we get articles that report exclusively on the attack and fail to give any insight into which position has any merits.

Bravo to Kornblut for doing just that.

By comparison, check out political point scoring piece for an example of what we should be decrying.

he leading Democratic candidates for president sparred with each other over the issue of nuclear weapons Thursday and the result was pure heat.

In another broadside indicating the increasingly heated race for the Democratic nomination, Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., implied Thursday that comments made by Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., were careless and unpresidential.

Sen. Clinton was referring to Obama's statement earlier in the day that he had ruled out using nuclear weapons against al Qaeda targets in Afghanistan or Pakistan.

Clinton also suggested Obama's high-profile speech earlier in the week in which he said would be willing to invade Pakistan to attack high-profile al Qaeda targets, given actionable intelligence, was inappropriate, further evidence that she is painting her challenger as unprepared for the job of commander in chief.

That's meta, "cover the candidates' spin without discussing the underlying substance" crap. Its disgusting. And its the vast majority of what we get.

Maybe we don't like O'Hanlon. Maybe we hashed it out just as well, if not better, than he did. But at least Kornblut though it appropriate to go ask somebody with some level of cache (nationally) on the issue about his take. That's admirable

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Thanks for the deeper analysis. I agree entirely. If the media is going to join us on the substance of these arguments, I'm all for it.

thosethingswesay.blogspot.com

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O'Hanlon should be acknowledged with having the good sense to see that using nuclear weapons against terrorists is foolish.

Picture a terrorist with a nuclear weapon strapped around his body being lectured to by Uncle Sam that he'll be be destroyed if he uses it.

O'Hanlon should be credited with having come up with an honest position. This shouldn't be so surprising. Even Hawks, on rare occasion, can originate thought and not emulate lick-spittle courtiers of the war industry.

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Homeland Security adviser Fran Townsend said basically the same thing the Obama said in July 2007. Any President made aware that terrorists responsible for 911 are in striking distance in Pakistan, will consider an attack.
A sitting President would not telegraph the planning. A Presidential candidate can state the obvious truth. Politucal opponents will attack said candidate for stating the truth.
The Pakstani government will denounce the statement to placate it's citizens. The US press will play up the controversy.
The fact remains that a Special Forces airstrike or "small" ground force would go after the targets. Bush has plans for it today. Any new POTUS would plan for it tomorrow.
fran Townsend vocalized what GW won't. Candidate Obama said what President Obama would not.
Nuclear weapons are not coming into play in any attempt to get terrorists who are not in control of nuclear weaponry themselves. A Pakistan overthrown by Islamists who now have access to nukes would change the equation.

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Yeah, I just had written her a letter through the WaPo website praising her, so that post was basically already written.

On the topic of O'Hanlon, though...oh my. Don't get me started. I'm not convinced the guy isn't a hack.

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Yeah, the O'Hanlon is what irked me.

He's just so wrong so often that I don't want to see him presented as some sort of arbiter in this debate.

thosethingswesay.blogspot.com

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Shorter O'Hanlon:

Blind pig, acorns, etc.

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The notion that one would use nuclear weapons to fight terrorism is just totally and utterly daft. Anyone who wants to keep nukes on the table for that use is quite insane. I think the problem we're seeing is that there are a lot of careless listeners out there. Someone makes a statement or asks a question, and people sort of round it off and take the parts they want to hear and toss the rest in the bin. Language fails if you abuse it in that way. That's not the way language works. Language is very detailed and specific. You can't change or delete any of the words without changing the meaning.

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Well, what we're seeing here is someone who's actually challenging a) establishment conventional widsom, b)the Beltway press, and c)the American voting public

How?

He refuses to offer the platitudinous "Presidential" answers that are establishment conventional wisdom. That's a direct challenge to said CW. However, that's also a challenge to the press to then report what he actually said, and not some ridiculous caricature of it, and investigate whether what actually said has any merit. And finally, its a challenge to the voting public to sift through all the bad reporting out there and actually read what he said, listen to him, and try to evaluate his policies and values on their own terms.

In short, he's trying to do exactly what he promised to do, which is raise the political discourse. He doesn't always do that (calling a Clinton "Bush-Cheney-lite" isn't exactly raising the discourse, heh, no matter how much pleasure those on the left derive from hearing it made public by a credible source). However, I do think he's starting to get traction on this. It took a lot longer to get this type of coverage on the whole "meet with dictators" flap, as the press totally knee-jerked their way through that.

Its heartening, IMO. Already, we have an article on slate praising him for answering these questions, and not just dodging, an article discussing the merits of his position in the Washington post (as linked to in the EC post at the top of this page), people like Joe Klein and Wolf Blitzer imploring their readers/listeners to go actually read his full FP speech in its entirety, etc.

Its major progress IMO. I plan on sending any reporter who covers these things the right way my gratitude when they do.

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Any world leader that tells a foreign country that they would never us nukes against them is not only inexperienced, but is giving away a key strategic deterrent that has been used to keep the peace. If countries like Pakistan, Suadia Arabia or any other country that may harbor terrorist believe that we would not use everything in our arsenal aginst them if they attacked the US than the US might as well stay home and hope for the best.

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Obama should tell O'Hanlon to go fuck himself.

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LOL!

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Nope, that's not how US policy currently stands. We're quite public with the use of nuclear weapons against those countries with nuclear weapons who then use them against us. Bush has said he wants to add a nuclear response if a state harms us with WMD of the chemical or biological kind--not sure if he's made that our official poicy, but I assume he has.

You'll just have to explain your view of US policy that would permit an American nuke landing on Paki or Saudi soil. That's against current US policy. Maybe worthy of discussion but not current--or past--policy.

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While I mostly agree with what you're saying, you just provided a fine example to support my point while simultaneously shooting down one of your own:

calling a Clinton "Bush-Cheney-lite" isn't exactly raising the discourse, heh, no matter how much pleasure those on the left derive from hearing it made public by a credible source

But here's what Obama actually said:

I don't want a continuation of Bush-Cheney. I don't want Bush-Cheney Lite. I want a fundamental change. It's time to turn the page on how we do business and say to the world, we are ready to lead. We are ready to lead by deed and example.

Nowhere in that quote does he call Hillary anything. He rightly attacks Hillary's policy, but he does so without personally attacking her. His words, I believe, were very precise and carefully chosen. But the press has reported it simply as "Obama calls Hillary Bush-Cheney Lite" and you just did it too. How did that happen?

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Heh, touche. I've been manipulated! That's evidence for both of us, I think.

You're right though, he didn't actually call Hillary "Bush-Cheney lite", though I did take it that he certainly implied as much. However, stand alone, his comments are spot on, and they were reported as him flat-out name-calling (when he didn't).

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Thanks, mopper8. This really fits with my opinion that Obama's very candidancy provides valuable leadership to America, whether or not he 'wins'.
Of course, my wish that he win the nomination and the presidency just deepens as I witness his capacity to lead Americans, politicians, and the media to move beyond the usual impotent 'sound bite' discourse and divisiveness.

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of course obama is right.

the issue isn't what's right or wrong. it's what you say in public.

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The thing that many at TPMCafe will have to deal with is that Obama, the Clintons, O'Hanlon, Pollack and most serious Democrats are in agreement with each other on foreign policy. Bush botched Iraq, failed to get Bin Laden and has alienated allies and those aligned with the U.S. against the efforts against the Islamic extrimists both Sunni and Shiia. The United States has had a remarkably consistent foreign policy going back to Theodore Roosevelt with the isolationist 1920s and George W. Bush's going it alone approach.

Daniel A. Greenbaum

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While I agree with your overall perspective, I do question, since the end of the Cold War, the "go it alone" ability of our President to commit our military without prior Congressional approval. I understand we might want to respond to a genocide or for humanitarian reasons. But should we not now require prior Congressional authorization for a limited and targeted intervention?

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Obama is wrong. You never tell other coutries on whether you will use nukes on them or not. That is just slap idiot stupid.

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lol, such nuance! Even Senator Clinton disagrees with you on that. Afterall,you never make blanket statements about the use or non-use of nukes, right?

Haven't we had Presidents rule out the use of nukes before? Didn't LBJ do that in Vietnam? And wasn't the question about attacking AL QAEDA which, last time I checked, is not another country?

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Yup, it happens all the time. It's really frustrating to hear someone say something that you think is just brilliant only to have Wolf Blitzer turn it into a pile of stinking garbage later in the day by mischaracterizing it.

To take a Casey Kasem quote out of context and use it for my own purposes: "It's ponderous, man. It's just fucking ponderous."

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Obama did not just say Al Queda. He said terrorist in Pakistan and Afghanistan. I think the LBJ remark was one of the reasons why democrats are now seen as soft on defense. Obama is not helping the democrats look good on defense matters.

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This is what Hillary Clinton said, and I agree with her.

"I think presidents should be very careful at all times in discussing the use, or non-use, of nuclear weapons," she said."

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Nice post. Thanks for pointing out that he never called Senator Clinton's approach anything.

But, as you note, it's not reported that way--it's reported the same way his foreign policy speech was. Obama wants to invade Pakistan!!!!!!!!

Mopper9, you're right about Kornblut. She did do a good job on this--I still haven't forgiven her, though, for the valentines for Joe Lieberman that were pushed as reporting, though, last summer.

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Translation: I'm not going to actually say anything of substance on this issue because that would give too many people ammunition. Easier for me to comment on other people's positions, and point out why they're wrong, than actually stand up and give a speech laying out my own foreign policy.

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So explain to me how using a nuclear weapon makes any sense in hunting down terrorists.

Its simply not the right weapon for the job. As O'Hanlon explains. If we knew where the guy is, whatever a nuke could do, conventional arms or boots could do with much more precision, much less collateral damage, and without signifying to the entire world that using nukes are OK.

Or, as a poster on tapped put it:

So if I asked Clinton if she'd rule out using nukes on terrorist cells in England, would she give the same "can't rule anything out" answer? After all, deterrence doesn't work if you don't take anything off the table! And a five-man cell of would-be suicide bombers is totally going to be deterred by the threat of our turning London into nuclear ash!

Jesus Christ, people, this is absolutely insane. Obama's answer wasn't just the right answer, it was the staggeringly obvious answer.

Its simply an atrociously bad tool for the job. Not only do you end up with civilians dead, nuclear fall-out, etc etc, you have the PR stuff to deal with as well--you think the Iraq war was a recruitment bonanza for Al Qaeda? What do you think images of a mushroom cloud in Waziristan would do for their movement? And for what? Something that could be accomplished quite easily with conventional arms.

I mean, really, this isn't even controversial. Its obvious

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Because he knew exactly how that press would report it: commonly known as political thuggery without fingerprints. Then because of the reporters's sloppiness about exact language it came up with his fingerprints all over it.

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"Any world leader that tells a foreign country that they would never us nukes against them is not only inexperienced, but is giving away a key strategic deterrent that has been used to keep the peace."

No one has, so I guess we're safe.

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'Scratch that' is different how? He comes to the same position after having given ammunition to all the wrong people in Pakistan.

We do not conduct our primaries behind a media curtain: the rest of the world is observing with interest and there are consequences. While in a democracy it is vital that all policies be discussed during an election, it is also advisable that this be done with the least external disruption possible.

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J. McCutchen

Not as expert as O'Hanlon by any means but Jon Stewart on the Great Demo Smackdown every bit as trenchant

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Personally, I don't think Obama went far enough. I certainly don't know what his opinions on the matter are, but I would definitely support a candidate that refuses to use nukes. Period. Give me a candidate that will press for total nuclear arms reduction - abroad AND at home.

In my opinion, there is no place for nuclear arms in any conflict.

~~~~~~~~~~~
Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum videtur.


Come visit PROJECT: Lucidity.

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Indeed, Obama is out to raise the discourse, but who will he reach? The members of the netroots who "hash things out" before the think tanks probably love to see this change in the way we discuss policy, but he may already have our votes.

A man once met and lauded Adlai Stevenson by telling him that he had the vote of every thinking man in America. Stevenson responded with, "Yes, but unfortunately, I need a majority."

Obama's use of language is welcomed, in my view, and long overdue; but I fear that it will be receieved as the high flown political rhetoric that is found in a University of Chicago constitutional law class.

I suppose it is here that I'm unsure: in hopes to become the country's greatest public servant, is it in a candidate's best interest to lead or relate?

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Obama's safe -- O'Hanlon (a bit of cheapskate) is still for Hillary!@ put $400 her way!

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Well Lee Hamilton agrees with Barack. Here is what he said in an editorial he wrote on July 30th:

According to a recently released National Intelligence Estimate, the United States faces a "persistent and evolving terrorist threat" and al-Qaida is as strong today as before Sept. 11. The most important and urgent action that we can take to keep America safer is to root out al-Qaida's sanctuary in Pakistan.

Al Qaida has rebuilt the base of operations it lost in Afghanistan across the border in tribal areas of western Pakistan. Key leaders, including Osama bin Laden and top lieutenant Ayman al-Zawahiri, are probably hiding in this rugged terrain. Training camps are used by the Taliban to support its insurgency in Afghanistan, and by al-Qaida to develop its capabilities. Plots in London have been traced back to Pakistan, demonstrating al-Qaida's operational control over a global network. We must remember that it was largely the sanctuary in Afghanistan that enabled bin Laden and al-Qaida to sponsor and carry out the 9/11 attacks.

Despite this direct threat, the United States has an agreement with Pakistan that prevents us from going after this safe haven. Our forces in Afghanistan are not permitted to pursue Taliban fighters once they cross the Pakistani border. Instead, we rely on the Pakistani government, led by President Pervez Musharraf, to target al-Qaida and the Taliban. Musharraf has resisted, relying on an agreement with tribes to do the job. Last week the Bush administration declared that Musharraf's strategy has failed.

The time has come to bear down on Musharraf. For years, he has captivated the United States by presenting himself as a secular moderate in a region beset by religious extremists. But his actions have not matched his rhetoric. He has promised to cease Pakistan's support for the Taliban and round up al-Qaida, but failed to deliver. He has promised to transition Pakistan toward open democracy, but continues to govern like a military dictator. Meanwhile, he has received $10 billions in U.S. aid since Sept. 11...

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This article was one of the few that focused on more than Pakistan in Obama's speech.

 "I'm very impressed with the number of quite constructive proposals he had in the speech," Hamilton said, highlighting Obama's strong warning to Pakistan. "It seems to me if we've learned anything at all about fighting terrorism, we have learned that we cannot permit Al Qaeda to have sanctuaries, and those sanctuaries must go."

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Yes, staggeringly so!  : )

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That was great! Thanxs..lol

I especially enjoyed Hillary morphing into Cheney with choker pearls on...hahahahaa

Stewart is right...what a clusterphuck!

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He is co-sponsoring an antiproliferation bill with Lugar

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I believe he did leave nukes "on the table" in regards to Iran, unfortunately (I don't always agree with the Senator, heh, though we clearly come with the same philosophical approach), but he's also committed to reducing the # of active U.S. nukes (i.e. small step towards full out disarmament) and has made non-proliferation a keystone of his foreign policy. I don't care about years in the Senate or as a deal broker, anyone in this race would be hard pressed to argue that they have better non-proliferation credentials than Obama. It's been his area of most consistent focus since becoming a Senator. I believe he's the only candidate who's pledged to get all loose nukes and nuclear material secured by the end of his 1st term, as well. And he was the first (only?) to put forward the idea of an international nuclear fuel bank, and commit U.S. money to it.

If that's an issue of concern, Obama is your guy for sure.

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