Election Central Sunday Roundup
Straw Poll: Romney Wins — But Not By A Whole Lot
Mitt Romney was the winner of yesterday's Iowa Straw Poll, but with a fairly weak plurality of 31.6%. While it was roughly the same percentage as George W. Bush won in 1999, it was marred by the fact that his chief three rivals — Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Fred Thompson — weren't competing. Mike Huckabee came in second with 18.1%, followed by Sam Brownback with 15.3%. The total number of ballots cast was 14,302.
Romney Spent Big $$$ Per Vote
Mitt Romney reportedly may have spent $2 million on the straw poll, which if true means he spent $442.87 per vote. Mike Huckabee spent a mere $150,000 or $57.98 per vote, and Sam Brownback spent $325,000, or $148.27 per vote.
Romney: Those Who Skipped Straw Poll Knew They'd Have Lost
Romney tweaked his no-show opponents in a press conference. "Well it's too bad the others guys weren't competing here," Romney said. "If they'd have thought they could have been successful here, they'd have been here. Their decision not to compete here was not a decision based on a position of strength."
Lingering Christian Right Distrust — And Creationist Strength
It should be noted that Mike Huckabee and Sam Brownback, who were in their own two-man competition for evangelical support, together won more votes than Romney, a total of 33.4%. This may be a sign of lingering distrust of Romney among Iowa's Christian right activists. And on another note, Tom Tancredo placed fourth with 13.7% — meaning that the three candidates who have professed to not believe in evolution won 47.1%, just short of a majority with the Iowa GOP activists.
Huckabee Celebrates Second-Place Finish
Mike Huckabee said his second-place showing, despite having very little money, was a sign of strength for the campaign. "We're a contender. We're in this thing for the long haul," Huckabee said. He added that potential supporters have told him they like his stances on the issues, but were waiting to see some sort of traction before donating money. "Here's the traction, where's the check?"
Ron Paul Only Places Fifth
Despite the passionate support of his volunteers and the novelty of his position as an anti-war Republican, Ron Paul was only able to take 9.1% of the vote for a fifth place showing.
Tommy Thompson Expected to Withdraw
Tommy Thompson had previously said he needed a second place showing at Ames in order to be a viable candidate. As it turned out, he placed sixth. Given those results, "it would be extremely unlikely that he would continue," campaign manage Steve Grubbs told the Wisconsin State Journal. Grubbs said Thompson would release a statement today, and has no public appearances scheduled.
New Hampshire Primary Could Be On A Saturday
The current jockeying over primary dates could result in the New Hampshire primary being held on a Saturday instead of Tuesday. State law requires that the primary be held at least eight days before other primaries. With the South Carolina Republican primary now set for January 19, setting a date of January 8 — the closest Tuesday to match that criterion — would also push the Iowa caucus to New Year's Day or into 2007, due to a similar tradition with the caucus. However, New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner could legally choose January 12, a Saturday, and still leave time for Iowa to go in 2008. According to the Union Leader, a bipartisan commission 20 years ago recommended a switch to Saturday elections in order to boost turnout — only to have Gardner scuttle the idea at the time.















Who cares?
I nominate the withdrawal of Tommy Thompson the least exciting political news of the decade.
Few news reports even bothered to mention which Thompson they were talking about.
Not easy hiding among the midgets running for the Republican nomination but Tommy Thompson managed to succeed gloriously.
Got to give credit where it is due.
Best, Terry
August 12, 2007 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Huckabee's result is pretty impressive--especially considering that he called the GOP "a wholly-owned subsidiary of Wall Street". If he's able to capitalize on the Iowa win (Romney's first place was at best a draw; Huckabee's second was a win), we could see a very interesting contest on the Republican side between wingnut Christianist populism and social moderate plutocratic corporatism.
In which case, pass the popcorn.
August 12, 2007 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
If CW coalesces around the idea that Huckabee is a viable, legit candidate, and Brownback is not, Huckabee could get a low of that support from Brownback and emerge as the true social conservative in the race. That weakens both Romney and Thompson.
August 12, 2007 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would echo the "Who Cares?" sentiment, but apply it to the whole Iowa Straw poll. It is manufactured news by candidates desperate for coverage and 24/7 MSM AND blogesphere desperate for something to report. EC devotes 7 out of 8 Sunday Roundup items to GOP straw poll stories? Most of the candidates rented buses and paid people to ride them and cast a vote. Democracy? The leading candidates didn't event participate. Why even report the results? Who voted for Iowa to lead the nation?
August 12, 2007 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Re: Mitt's cost per vote, if you look at the marginal cost per vote over Huckabee's, it's even worse... about $960. Oh yeah, and of course, the cost per actual RNC delegate is, um, infinite.
August 12, 2007 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
You mean Brownback could have a cow, man?
What a wonderful spectacle this race is. I thought the camel races in Pakistan were probably not what many Americans would eagerly look forward to but the resemblance of the Republican contest to a race between dairy cows does have some hilarious highlights.
Best, Terry
August 12, 2007 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why can't the media just cover the issues instead of making everything into a cowrace?
August 12, 2007 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was kind of afraid of Tommy for a time. He was practically governor for life of Purple Wisconsin even when they were electing and reelecting Feingold in the same elections. I thought whatever secret magic he had might work nationally, too, but apparently the state borders bring it crashing down. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets to be governor again, tho.
August 12, 2007 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was kind of hoping Ron Paul would come out strong so he could stay in there and give more pain to the rest of the herd. I expect he'll be announcing the end of his effort shortly?
August 12, 2007 2:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Forget about the straw poll: a primary on a Saturday, now that's intriguing. I always wondered why the Dems don't campaign for moving elections from Tuesday to Sunday. Almost all the other countries in the developed world hold elections on Sundays. It's kind of funny - as if representative government and a presidential regime were not anti-democratic enough, the U.S. also needs to systematically depress turnout.
[CT]
One million page hits against Bush!!!
August 12, 2007 3:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I expect Paul will be around for a while. He's running a internet, shoestring campaign. Its not like he's burning thru wads of cash or spending much time on the stump. He's an insurgent with lots of fervorant supporters.
Hell, I've given him 2 small donations to help keep him in, and I'm an FDR Democrat. He's all wrong on economics and social policy, but I wish one of the major Dems would adopt his anti-interventionist foreign policy.
UA
August 12, 2007 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Spending $400 for a vote has far greater negative implications for the elective process than spending $400 on a haircut. Too bad the fatuous MSM won't be able to figure that out.
August 12, 2007 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
So we should just say "screw Darfur"? Actually it's worse than just one region, but that doesn't matter.
August 12, 2007 4:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
If they sold 26,000 tickets and 14,000 votes were cast, it seems that "None of the Above" came first, Romney second, and Huckabee third.
August 12, 2007 5:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Since service industry types have to work on the weekends, I've always felt a national holiday for elections would be a good idea.
But same idea in spirit.
August 12, 2007 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can't have elections on Sundays; Sundays,you're supposed to be on your knees, praying in church, not getting your finger purpled. And no, atheists in the morning and the righteous in the afternoon is not a solution because it'd be far too easy to just ditch all the morning votes (yes, my tin-foil hat's firmly in place)
In Poland, where the red regime (semi-commie) had been replaced with the black one (Catholic church) they now devote the entire weekend -- Saturday and Sunday -- to the elections. But that wouldn't work in the States either... we want to know the results yesterday; two days is much too long to wait.
August 12, 2007 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Riiiight. I'd totally forgot about the christian nation part. Shame on me. Anyways, this is the kind of stuff that makes people like Dubya believe that god wanted him here. Cuz obviously, he did not win the regular vote (in 2000 - Ohio '04 is more complicated). Church on Sunday, electoral miracle on Tuesday.
ps: all jokes aside, it always struck me how the whole electoral ritual takes on the form of a lay, civic miracle. The vote itself, in its very function as a sort of aggregator and distillator in representative government, is of a miraculous nature. I mean, "popular will?" or "representation" of said "popular will?" In the age of daily polls and the Internet? Come on!
More 18th century bull, if you ask me.
[CT]
One million page hits against Bush!!!
August 12, 2007 6:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
And by the way, the Federalist (but Sieyes too) justified representative constitution on the basis that democracy could not function on a large territory. Yet, at the same time, the telegraph was invented (put to work in France in 1794). The people pushing for it held out the hope that instant communication would negate the need for representative government and lead to true world democracy. Same stuff happened in the 1920's with the advent of the radio on a massive scale (and the stock market bubble that came with it). Now, the internet has really done it and is really turning into the direct, unfettered communication tool the inventors of the telegraph dreamt about.
Yet, we're still using 18th century political technology. What gives?
[CT]
One million page hits against Bush!!!
August 12, 2007 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
If it were made a national holiday, fewer people might vote, distracted by other things.
August 12, 2007 6:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
They didn't have computers when George Washington was elected president. If they did, George III might have been elected.
Oregon's mail only balloting seems ideal to me. Karl Rove and Justice Alito can't post enough Republican guards outside all the mailboxes in the country to keep Democrats from voting against Julie and Hillary.
Alberto Gonzales is watching your computer with 20th Century technology.
Nineteenth Century technology is good enough for me.
Best, Terry
August 12, 2007 7:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was thinking of Oregon, too. They do manage to get close 100% turnout as a result. And yes, voting machine are instruments of tyranny while the internet is under constant electronic surveillance. But in a sense it goes both ways, we turn it back onto them : the watchful eyes of citizens are constantly trained on the politicians now, and in a much less filtered and hierarchical fashion. They cannot get away with nearly as much as they used to (think Hillary and the nukes, for instance, or Lazy Fred and his red pickup...)
So of course they do have data mining and all their other wonderful toys (including voting machines). We have just-in-time on-demand communities, the internet echo chamber and the politics of shame and accountability (and perhaps the mail-in ballot). The rule of the mob - but the smart mob, baby! Hamilton would be aghast. I mean, it's a start in the long and painful process of undoing the legacy of these 18th century authoritarians.
(As for 18th century political technology, I was referring to representative government itself.)
[CT]
One million page hits against Bush!!!
August 12, 2007 7:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
The rules were pretty simple. If another legislator disagreed with you, you simply killed him. That required, of course, that you kill his family and friends.
No pussyfooting around among those guys.
If you got carried away and killed too many that sometimes necessitated exile for a year or two to let things cool off.
That was how Eric the Red discovered America and established a colony.
Unfortunately for Eric the Native Americans, who got here first, had superior technology. The Viking Journals report the cowardly Indians wouldn't stand and fight like men but hid behind bushes and threw long sticks at the Vikings with a bow.
And thus it was that it took more than a millenia for more backward Europeans to bring representative government to America.
Best, Terry
August 12, 2007 8:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Paul was already staying in the race long before his groundswell of Internet support and donations, so I find that kind of funny. Perhaps it's because Ron Paul's success in the straw poll is being underplayed severely, particularly compared to what his campaign and others had anticipated; media expectations until a day or so before Ames essentially had Paul finishing tenth ahead of John Cox. Finishing fifth means Paul beat expectations more than any other GOP candidate, even Huckabee; the fact that some reporters started hedging their bets when they got to Ames and saw all the Paul signs does not affect how the long-term expectations of Paul were exceeded, and that's what matters, just like a sudden concern about Romney the very day of the poll would not have softened the blow had he lost, given the long-term media expectations for him.
Furthermore, Romney, Brownback, and to a lesser degree, Tancredo all had buses; just as Huckabee deserves credit since he had no buses, so does Paul, if not moreso, since Paul only has visited Iowa a total of three times this year. And yet, he beat out the one candidate who has spent more time in Iowa than any other Republican, Tommy Thompson. I find it odd that some in the MSM and even EC are acting like Paul didn't meet expectations; the fact is no one in the media establishment, party establishment, or Ron Paul himself expected his candidacy to be as successful as it has been. I don't agree with many of his views, but credit where it's due; besides, anything in the national GOP that isn't neoconservative is one step further from the abyss for the country, as far as I'm concerned.
August 12, 2007 9:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Terry,
I actually went there and saw the Thingvellir falls, where the Icelandic parliament would gather every year. It sits on the line of subduction between the american and european plates. There a big cliff right next to a flat plain. It's pretty stunning. It's definitely more romantic than the house of commons...
[CT]
One million page hits against Bush!!!
August 12, 2007 9:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hate you. Hate that you got to see the geothermal paradise and all I ever got to see was The Geysers north of San Francisco as it was being developed, got to smell the stench of sulfur in the air so thick it ate copper pipes like termites eat old wood, got to drive on hairpin turns on narrow mountain roads against semis that was something like Laurel and Hardy trying to move a piano across a rope bridge while fighting a large gorilla.
Been wanting to see geothermal developments like Chena Hot Springs north of Fairbanks where Japanese newly weds increase the population of Japan under the northern lights but I can't even get to Nicaragua where my wife found a description of an airport bathroom more frightening than tales of machete-wielding street muggers.
Don't tell me any more. I don't want to hear. :-)
BTW there are estimates that geothermal could replace all the electricity produced in this country 56,000 times over using only a fraction of the resource available. Meanwhile our fine president has zeroed out funding and threatens to veto a bill by Jerry McNerney to fund research should Congress pass it.
Thanks for the word, concerntroll. You struck a chord.
Best, Terry
August 12, 2007 11:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Damn right! Why fuck up the Sabbath . . . If we choose Sunday instead only NASCAR fans and Super Bowl addicts would have reason to avoid fulfilling their obligation to vote.
August 13, 2007 2:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
T. Thompson and Tancredo are the only reason I follow the Republican side of the equation . . .
They blow-out the totally insane and there would be no fun left in the game.
August 13, 2007 2:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah . . . Only the fastfood industry would stand between us and a 'Huckleberry' Admin. Living in CA, I already have to put up with a Republican leader handing out hackney health tips . . .
August 13, 2007 2:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is obviously Romney's high-water mark. As it gets harder and harder to actually buy votes directly, he'll fade. Has anyone ever seen a guy with worse presidential blue balls? Jesus, talk about saying anything to get elected. He'd be speaking in tongues if he thought it would get him a vote. Romney really sucks.
August 13, 2007 7:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
The excess tickets were likely purchased by various campaigns, not individuals who chose not to vote after spending $35.
August 13, 2007 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
If it's a Tuesday holiday, fewer people will probably leave town, although if they do, they could vote absentee.
I believe Michigan has had some success with a holiday on election day.
August 13, 2007 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Looks like turnout was well below the expectations of some of the campaigns, seeing as they bought almost 50% too many tickets for their non-existent supporters.
August 13, 2007 5:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of course, some would have been bought for campaign volunteers from out of state, who would not have been eligible for the straw poll.
So the "none of the above" would not really have been the full 12,000 ... but where campaigns bought tickets and were unable to get people to come out ... giving a much lower vote in the straw poll than 1999 ... I reckon Mr. None of the Above has a credible claim to those votes.
August 13, 2007 6:10 PM | Reply | Permalink