Dem Poll: Democrats Poised For Gain Of 20 House Seats In 2008
More big gains for House Dems in 2008? That's what a comprehensive new poll by a Dem firm finds.
A new poll just out from Democracy Corps — the Democratic polling/consulting firm run by James Carville and Stan Greenberg — finds that Dems are poised to pick up a new batch of House seats next year, even as the number of vulnerable Dem seats dwindles.
The poll — which was conducted in 70 competitive districts, half held by the Democrats and half by the GOP — finds that the most vulnerable Democrats, who come largely from the ranks of freshmen who picked up Republican seats last year, are not in any great danger. "Democrats are ahead in their most vulnerable seats by 10 points, 51 to 41 percent, leaving the Republicans with few pickup opportunities," the pollsters say.
Meanwhile, Democrats lead in the most competitive tier of Republican-held seats, as well as in the second-tier trouping of vulnerable GOPers — meaning there could be vulnerable Republican seats even outside of the 35 tested. "This pattern that allowed the Democrats to take 30 seats in the last mid-term election could well take Democrats up to 20 in the Presidential, unless confounded by intervening events," the firm writes. "There really could be another wave election."
A 20-seat gain by Dems would bring their total to 253.















Now if we can just get to 60 in the Senate.
August 3, 2007 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
even 253 in the house is well short of veto proof...
August 3, 2007 2:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm kind of hoping that we won't need to worry about overriding too many vetoes after the next election.
August 3, 2007 2:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I ain't so worried about the House. It is the Senate that requires a ten seat swing.
Any-which-way, the Dems still need to display their inner liberal/progressive tendancies a bit more enthusiastically to actually produce the results projected. The people are PISSED and the Party needs to get out in front and lead.
August 3, 2007 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree about the House. Its rules are pretty skewed towards the majority party. But the procedural maneuverability of the Senate will require a working majority of 60. While I doubt this is possible in this election cycle, it wont be far off in 2010. That will be the culmination of a full cycle of Senate elections stemming out of a failed and shameful administration.
Even with a Dem in the White House, the public will continue to see the short-sightedness and cronyism of what used to be the Republican Party.
Keep left and dont let up.
August 3, 2007 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually this is the go round to do it in the Senate . . . of the 30 plus seats up for election . . . Over 20 are held by Repugnicants . . . AND a number of those are folk not quite fascist enough for their party's hard-liners . . . So they may be EZer pickens . . .
August 3, 2007 4:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
We have a lot of good targets this round. I don't know if we have enough, but we should be able to do well.
If a Dem wins the presidency, who knows what will happen in the 2010 midterms.
August 3, 2007 4:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Historically, it's very rare for Congress to remain in the same party as the President during a mid-term election.
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Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum videtur.
Come visit PROJECT: Lucidity.
August 3, 2007 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Love most of all to hear that Jerry McNerney is finding some good support in his heavily Republican district in California.
McNerney isn't all a liberal might desire on Iraq but he is on global warming.
Best, Terry
August 3, 2007 7:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
When writing an article like this, you really should supply a link or URL to the poll itself.
20 more seats is just about exactly what we need, if they come from the Northeast, Great Lakes, and West Coast. Then we wouldn't need the votes of Southern Blue Dogs, and could afford to let about 15 others from Red areas do what's necessary to get reelected.
August 5, 2007 5:35 PM | Reply | Permalink