Thompson Buys Ad Time — Right Before Debate He's Skipping
Now this is something. Fred Thompson is skipping this Wednesday's Republican debate on Fox News, and will declare his candidacy at 12:01 a.m. that same night. However, Thompson's campaign has bought a 30-second ad to air on Fox News, just as people are tuning in to watch debate. The ad will feature Thompson speaking into the camera about the announcement he will make later that night.

Larry Craig Makes It Official — He's Resigning
Senator Larry Craig (R-ID) announced his resignation this morning, effective September 30, in the wake of the scandal involving his conviction for disorderly conduct in an airport men's room. However, he is still insisting upon his innocence, and vowing to fight it in court, despite his August guilty plea.

Obama And Edwards Pledge To Shun Rogue Primary States
Barack Obama and John Edwards have joined Joe Biden, Chris Dodd and Bill Richardson in pledging to not campaign in states that violate the Democratic National Committee's official primary calendar. Assuming the pledge is honored, this would take them out of Florida and probably Michigan, for now. Both have put out statements praising the current system and primary calendar for nominating the presidential candidate, and promising to stand by it despite the current challenges.

Club For Growth Attacking Tom Davis
Senator John Warner (R-VA) only announced his retirement yesterday, but the right-wing Club For Growth is already attacking GOP Congressman Tom Davis, widely believed to be Warner's choice to succeed him. "Tom Davis has one of the most economically liberal records among Republicans in the House," said former Congressman Pat Toomey (R-PA), now president of the group. "Since Republican voters in Virginia are decidedly economic conservatives, it’s hard to see how Davis could win a statewide primary."

Hillary, Obama Both Respond To Iowa Gay Marriage Ruling
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have given their responses, offering cautious support, to a ruling by a judge in Polk County, Iowa, invalidating the state's ban on gay marriage. "The states have always determined age of marriage, other conditions and over time we've gotten rid a lot of discrimination that used to exist in marriage laws. That's now happening," said Clinton. A spokesman for Obama said the candidate "believes these matters should be left to the states, which is why he opposes the Defense of Marriage Act." The ruling in Iowa has been stayed, pending appeal.

Louisiana Dems Hit Back At Tancredo
Louisiana officials have responded to Tom Tancredo's statement that it is "time the taxpayer gravy train left the New Orleans station." This may come as a shock, but they don't agree. "Congressman Tancredo’s foolish call to cut out the people of Louisiana and the Gulf Coast is as ignorant as it is shortsighted," said Senator Mary Landrieu (D-LA), who recently hosted a summit in New Orleans, to which all the presidential candidates had been invited. "Had the Congressman accepted my invitation to visit the hurricane-affected area this week, he would have witnessed what many already know: while substantial progress has been made, there is a great deal of work left to be done."

Report: GOP Candidates Looking At Tommy Franks For VP
The Washington Times is reporting that three Republican candidates — though it is has been specified which three — are looking at the idea of having Retired General Tommy Franks run for vice president next year. Franks was one of the men who helped plan out the Iraq War, orchestrating a light campaign that initially conquered Iraq but then failed to win the peace. One can't help but suspect that Democrats would love to run against him.

It's done -- Larry Craig has made his resignation official at a press conference in Idaho.

Surrounded by family members and Republican officials, Craig somberly read the following statement into a microphone just moments ago:

What is best for Idaho has always been the focus of my efforts, and it is no different today. To Idahoans I represent, to my staff, my Senate colleagues, but most importantly to my wife and my family, I apologize for what I have caused. I am deeply sorry. I have little control over what people will choose to believe, but clearly my name is important to me, and my family is so very important also.

Having said that, to pursue my legal options as I continue to serve Idaho would be an unwanted and unfair distraction of my job and for my Senate colleagues. These are serious times of war and of conflict, times that deserve the Senate's and the full nation's attention. There are many challenges facing Idaho that I am currently involved in, and the people of Idaho deserve a senator who can devote 100% of his time and effort to the critical issues of our state and of our nation.

Therefore, it is with sadness and deep regret that I announce that it is my intent to resign from the Senate, effective September 30th.

Craig didn't address the charges against him, though his office will apparently be releasing a more detailed written statement later this afternoon.

His replacement is already waiting in the wings. Governor Butch Otter has reportedly tapped Lt. Governor Jim Risch to be appointed to the seat.

An incredibly rapid downfall for a man who, as recently as last Monday, when the story first broke, was a senior Senator with powerful committee slots who'd managed to keep his apparent double life under wraps for many years. Less than a week later, after an extraordinary pressure campaign from members of his own party intent on dislodging him and putting an end to the story, it all comes to a humiliating end.

Late Update: CNN reports that one of its reporters got the chance to ask Crag as he made his way back to his car if he stood by his claim of innocence.

"Absolutely," he said, adding: "We'll be fighting this like hell."

Denying it until the last.

Craig Will Walk The Plank Tomorrow
Larry Craig will hold a news conference tomorrow in Boise, where he will reportedly announce his resignation from the Senate, effective September 30 — a date that still might not be soon enough for his fellow Republicans. The Associated Press is reporting that Republican Governor Butch Otter has already tapped Lt. Governor Jim Risch to be appointed to the seat. Risch was previously elevated to the governorship in May 2006, but chose to run for Lt. Governor again and avoid a bloody primary for governor against then-Congressman Otter. So expect the GOP to repay that debt and unite around Risch.

The Second-Tier Dems Pledge To Abide By The Official Calendar
Bill Richardson, Chris Dodd and Joe Biden have all released statements indicating they will not participate in primaries and caucuses that deviate from the DNC's officially sanctioned calendar. This means they will stay away from Florida, which has scheduled itself for January 29, and probably Michigan, which is on the verge of trying to grab January 15. The pledge is being propagated by Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina — the four states that are officially allowed to hold their contests in January.

Tancredo Calls For End To Katrina Aid
Wow. Tom Tancredo took the two-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina as an opportunity to blast federal aid to the Gulf Coast today. The presidential candidate said it is "time the taxpayer gravy train left the New Orleans station" and also, "The mentality that people can wait around indefinitely for the federal taxpayer to solve all their worldly problems has got to come to an end."

NH Gov. Supports Regional Primary — For Every State But NH
New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch said at a newspaper editorial board meeting Wednesday that he would support a primary system in which regional groups of states rotated each election cycle beginning in 2012. His support, however, came with a major caveat — New Hampshire would retain its first-in-the-nation status as well as "some distance" between its primary and the regional contests. Gov. Lynch added that he would also favor Iowa maintaining its status as the first caucus.

Mike Huckabee Supports Voting Rights For DC
Despite the fact that it would definitely be a new Democratic seat, Mike Huckabee told reporters today that he supported efforts to grant Washington, DC, a full Congressional district. The former Arkansas governor said that it "doesn't seem right" that citizens should pay taxes without representation and that its political impact on the parties' balance in the House "doesn't change whether it is right or wrong."

Duke Of Muck Lewis Running Again
Congressman Jerry Lewis (R-CA), who has thus far spent about $45,000 in campaign funds on legal fees associated with his ties to lobbyists and defense contractors, has announced that he is running again in 2008. His district is deeply Republican, so even despite his scandals he can likely get re-elected.

Hillary Clinton Reads Top 10 Campaign Promises On Letterman
Following a long tradition of political figures reading Top 10 lists on Letterman, Hillary Clinton listed her best campaign promises, focusing on the comedic novelty of having a woman as president. Starting off with "Bring stability and long term security to The View," here they are for your enjoyment:

Here's the key quote from a just-released statement on John Warner's retirement, from fellow Virginia Senator Jim Webb:

“While today is a bittersweet announcement for Virginia, the nation and the Senate, it bears emphasis that Senator Warner still has more than a year in office. During that time, he will continue to play a crucial role in formulating a more rational policy in Iraq. Just last week, we saw his leadership and independence on display once more. The President would do well to listen to John Warner during his last year in office.”

It won't happen, but it's a nice thought.

Appearing this afternoon on Fox News' Your World With Neil Cavuto, Mike Huckabee called upon Senator Larry Craig (R-ID) to resign over the airport men's room scandal:

Well, he oughtta resign. I mean, when the people of his own party there [in Idaho] ... are saying that they're gonna find a candidate against him, they're gonna help finance it, they won't support him, this opera is over. The fat lady is singing at the top of her lungs. He needs to hear the tune and step aside.

Huckabee bluntly added that Craig's continued presence is dragging down the GOP:

This is not something the Republican Party needs. It's not the entire party's fault that an individual has done something. But I think that the strong stand you're hearing from Idaho and from his colleagues in the Senate indicate that people in the Republican party know that we can't go through another in a long series of embarrassing scandals, and expect to have any hope not just for the White House but for the House, the Senate, governorships and other races in '08.

Huckabee is the second Republican presidential candidate to call for Craig's resignation, following John McCain.

You may recall that back in June we wrote about top Romney campaign aide Jay Garrity, who'd repeatedly gotten in trouble over the years for impersonating a cop -- complete with flashing lights and fake cop equipment.

Well, at least the Romney folks used real law enforcement types this time:

The motorcade of Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney exceeded speed limits and went through stop lights Friday as local law officers escorted him, blue lights flashing, to campaign events in two South Carolina counties.

Traffic pulled over for Romney's caravan as Saluda County Sheriff Jason Booth, a Romney supporter, led the candidate's motor home and staff cars with his blue lights running from the Aiken County line through Saluda County to the Newberry city limits, according to an Associated Press reporter following the candidate.

The caravan traveled between 10 mph and 15 mph over posted speed limits. The posted speed limits were 45 mph and 55 mph.

"We wanted to make sure he stays safe and gets to where he's going," Booth told The Associated Press.

Asked whether it's proper to use flashing police lights to escort a candidate, he said, "I'm not getting into this with you, sir. I have no comment."

Romney spokesman Kevin Madden tells Election Central that neither Romney nor his aides asked their cop escort to flash their lights, speed, or run traffic lights, saying that such a request would only be made if safety concerns dictated it.

Incidentally, the Romney aide who got in trouble for playing cops eventually resigned from the campaign. Looks like the Romney people have found some real live replacements...

Now that long-time Senator John Warner (R-VA) has announced his retirement, both parties will have candidates lining up for the seat in 2008.

It's the first open-seat Senate contest in Virginia since 1988 and potentially the first competitive open-seat race since 1982, when Republican Paul Trible edged out Dem Richard Davis for the seat of retiring independent Senator Harry Byrd Jr., the seat now held by Democrat Jim Webb.

How will it shake out? Our full rundown after the jump.

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At a press conference in Virgina right now, GOP Senator John Warner just announced that he plans to retire. Here's his key quote:

"So, I say that my work and service to Virginia as a senator -- and I repeat, my work and service to Virginia as a senator -- will conclude upon the 6th of January, 2009, when I finish, in the Constitution of the United States on the first Tuesday of the new Congress, my career of 30 years in the United States Senate."

Warner's retirement is huge news -- it dramatically alters the electoral map for 2008, making gains in the Senate even more likely for Democrats. Many analysts think that Warner's retirement means that his seat is an almost-certain Dem pickup, should former Democratic governor Mark Warner decide to run, as many expect.

If Mark Warner does pick up the seat next year, it will mean that not one, but two Senate seats in this southern state flipped from red to blue in a mere two years. Last year, of course, Senator Jim Webb won a surprise victory over GOP incumbent George Allen.

Virginia's Richmond Times-Dispatch has a rundown on Warner's career here. The Virginia blog Raising Kaine games out the far-reaching impact that this will have on Virginia politics here.

More in a bit, including video.

Late Update: Here's a quick rundown on how Warner's retirement will play out among Republicans angling for his seat. John Warner's protegé Congressman Tom Davis is expected to make a run for it — likely opening up his Northern Virginia House seat to a Democratic takeover. There remain a large group of conservative activists who distrust Davis, so he may face a right-wing challenger such as former Governor Jim Gilmore, who recently dropped out of the Republican presidential race.

Can the GOP hold the seat? Probably not, due to Mark Warner's popularity. But the GOP definitely has a fighting chance, given the state's Republican lean in presidential election years. Considering Gilmore's unpopularity when he left office — succeeded by Mark Warner — and his embarrassing campaign for the presidency, he would likely be a much easier opponent for Mark Warner to defeat than Tom Davis, who has a political base in the swing areas of Fairfax County and Northern Virginia as a whole.

Bottom line: Mark Warner is heavily favored to win the seat for the Democrats, but it's not certain just yet. — eric kleefeld

Later Update: A key quote from the statement issued by fellow Virginia Senator Jim Webb:

“While today is a bittersweet announcement for Virginia, the nation and the Senate, it bears emphasis that Senator Warner still has more than a year in office. During that time, he will continue to play a crucial role in formulating a more rational policy in Iraq. Just last week, we saw his leadership and independence on display once more. The President would do well to listen to John Warner during his last year in office.”

Won't happen, but it's a nice sentiment.

As noted below, Harry Reid was quoted in today's Washington Post essentially saying that he was prepared to compromise with Republicans and be flexible on whether to insist on troop withdrawal timelines this fall.

Because this is pretty eye-opening, and in dire need of some clarification -- is Reid really saying that he's open to funding the war again without withdrawal timelines? -- I emailed his spokesman the following question:

Is the Senate Majority Leader saying here that he's flexible on the question of whether to tie funding to a withdrawal timeline? Is he saying he's open to funding the war this fall without a timetable?

Here's the reply from Reid spokesman Jim Manley:

As he said in the piece, it's time for Republican critics of the war in the Senate to belly up to the bar, because it's absolutely evident that the President isn't going to move from his failed stay the course strategy. While Senator Reid remains absolutely committed to bringing our troops home, the question is whether we can find enough Republicans willing to break with the President to give us the 60 votes necessary.

This doesn't appear to be a direct answer. That fact, coupled with this expression of uncertainty about getting enough Republicans for a veto-proof majority, would seem to suggest that Reid was indeed saying that he's open to funding the war this fall without withdrawal timelines if he can't get the 60 votes.

Is there any other way to read this?

And again -- what exactly does saying this now accomplish?

A new Detroit News poll finds Hillary with a strong lead over Obama in Michigan -- a state that could conceivably assume more importance if it succeeds in moving up its primary, as its government is trying to do.

The survey finds that Hillary has 40%, followed by Barack Obama at 21% and John Edwards at 16%.

On the GOP side Mitt Romney's status as a native of Michigan has only given him the slimmest of leads over Rudy. He has 25% to Rudy's 23%, a lead that's within the poll's 4.9 point margin of error. Fred Thompson has 16%, while John McCain trails in fourth place with 15%.

It isn't every day that a Democrat presents health-care reform and state sub-contracting policies as imperatives of his religious faith, but that's exactly what Kentucky Dem gubernatorial nominee Steve Beshear has done in this new ad.

He makes his pitch in terms of old-fashioned moral values, opening the ad outside the church where his father and grandfather were preachers. "My faith teaches responsibility to God and family. I see Kentucky as one big family," Beshear says. "That's why I'll pass a law providing healthcare to every Kentucky child, and prescription drugs for seniors, and invest in Kentucky business instead of out-of-state corporations."

Beshear is currently enjoying a huge lead in the polls over incumbent Republican Ernie Fletcher, whose administration has been hit by a series of scandals. However, Fletcher has hit back at Beshear, using the Democrat's support of legalized casino gambling to question his moral values — thus making it important for Beshear to respond with an ad emphasizing his Christian beliefs, even on topics like health care or state contracts.

And as a matter of fact, Fletcher's people already have a response to this ad. "I think most Kentuckians would find his positions contrary to the values that they hold," Fletcher campaign manager Marty Ryall told the Lexington Herald-Leader. "He's trying to convince the voters he's something he's not."

This is pretty interesting. Officials with the struggling McCain campaign are developing a new argument: The "success" of the surge, which McCain had long advocated for, will enable him to turn his Presidential effort around. The Associated Press has the details:

Earlier this year, Bush essentially adopted McCain's troop-increase strategy, and the senator's political future became directly linked to the war's outcome.

"Nothing goes to his commander-in-chief credentials more than that four years ago, almost alone among politicians, McCain was calling for this very strategy -- and now it's showing success," said Mark Salter, a senior adviser to the senator.

McCain is also hoping that the media circus that will greet Petraeus's upbeat testimony will buoy his campaign. He is planning a September chock full of Iraq-War-related events, including a mid-September campaign swing called the "No Surrender" tour. He's going to stand with veterans at countless photo ops, the AP says.

Of course, the surge hasn't produced its desired effect -- political reconciliation in Iraq -- and shows no signs of doing so in the future. And solid majorities still want out of Iraq. But these inconvenient facts don't seem to matter to McCain or any other war supporters. To them, the surge is "succeeding" and the American people agree and want to "stay the course," and nothing will ever, ever change that. When 80%-90% want out of Iraq, it will still be true.

Today's Washington Post has an interview with Harry Reid in which he suggests that he's now prepared to compromise with Republicans on Iraq:

LAS VEGAS -- Saying the coming weeks will be "one of the last opportunities" to alter the course of the war, Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) said he is now willing to compromise with Republicans to find ways to limit troop deployments in Iraq.

Reid acknowledged that his previous firm demand for a spring withdrawal deadline had become an obstacle for a small but growing number of Republicans who have said they want to end the war but have been unwilling to set a timeline.

"I don't think we have to think that our way is the only way," Reid said of specific dates during an interview in his office here. "I'm not saying, 'Republicans, do what we want to do.' Just give me something that you think you would like to do, that accomplishes some or all of what I want to do."

Is Reid really saying that this fall he'll be flexible -- again -- on the question of funding the war without timetables? Seems like it.

Of course, Reid has already "compromised" with Republicans on Iraq by agreeing to fund the war through September with no withdrawal timetables, and look where that has gotten us.

That said, it's really hard to know what to make of this. His apparent openness to future funding without a date-certain for withdrawal, won't exactly buoy Congress' sinking approval ratings.

A charitable way to look at this is that it's a "Devil in the details" kind of situation. Come September, Reid -- aside from peripheral measures such as the troop rest measure -- would appear to have basically only two choices before him on the larger question of war funding: Refuse to fund the war unless the funding is attached to a withdrawal timeline, or agree to fund it without a date-certain. If Reid is only saying he's willing to compromise right now and has no intention of doing the latter, no biggie.

But if he does end up doing the latter, of course, Reid will catch Hell. It really is hard to imagine that the Dem leadership would do that, but after the FISA fiasco, it's anyone's guess what's next.

It won't be clear what this really means until it's translated into legislative details, but either way, it's hard to see what saying this right now accomplishes, aside from signaling weakness. Some clarification on what exactly Reid is saying here would be welcome.

Late Update: Reid's spokesman responds to our request for clarification.

A Reminder: John Warner To Announce Plans Today
Senator John Warner (R-VA) is expected to announce this afternoon whether or not he will seek re-election. The Examiner reports that Warner will announce his retirement, setting up a competitive Senate race between former Governor Mark Warner (D) and either Congressman Tom Davis or former Governor Jim Gilmore on the Republican side. Mark Warner — of no relation to John Warner — would start out as the favorite in the race. Then again, John Warner might just throw us all a curveball and run again.

Poll: Rudy Still Leads Among Conservatives
A Hotline/Diageo poll shows Rudy Giuliani continuing to lead the Republican field nationally. The numbers: Rudy 27%, Thompson 17%, Romney 15%, McCain 12%. Amazingly, Rudy still leads among self-described conservatives, evangelicals, and those who believe abortion should not be permitted at all, beating Thompson by six to ten points on those questions.

Iowa Judge Rules Against Ban On Gay Marriage
Gay marriage is likely to take front and center in the 2008 presidential race in Iowa, as Polk County Judge Robert Hanson ruled the state's law prohibiting same-sex marriage is unconstitutional. Mitt Romney has already seized on the opportunity to emphasize his new and improved 2007 position on gay rights, releasing a press release blasting the decision as "another example of an activist court and unelected judges trying to redefine marriage and disregard the will of the people as expressed through Iowa's Defense of Marriage Act," and reiterating his support for a Federal Marriage Amendment.

TNT To Keep Showing Law & Order Reruns
Cable channel TNT does not have any plans to stop showing Law & Order reruns, even though former series star Fred Thompson has confirmed that he will officially declare his candidacy for president next week. FCC rules on TV networks giving equal amounts of time to political candidates outside of news coverage do not apply to cable networks. So how often will episodes from Thompson's tenure be shown, and could this have any effect on the process?

FEC Withstands Court Challenge on 527 Regulations
A district court judge Thursday dismissed a lawsuit brought by Rep. Chris Shays' (R-CT) and former Rep. Marty Meehan's (D-MA) against the FEC to force regulation of 527s. “[The decision] reinforces the fact that we need legislation to force 527s to play by the same campaign finance rules, which apply to all other organizations seeking to influence federal elections," Shays said. 527s, which can receive unlimited soft money donations, include such high profile groups as Swift Boat Veterans For Truth and MoveOn.org.

Report: Romney To Boycott Wyoming GOP Contest
Michael Roston reports that Mitt Romney's campaign will be boycotting the Wyoming GOP's delegate-selection conventions, after the state party scheduled them for January 5 in a deliberate attempt to break the primary calendar and force reforms. "Where folks have come to know Mitt Romney in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and other states, they're growing to like him," said Romney spokesman Stephen Smith. "Those are the early primary states where we are focusing our energy."

NH GOP Chairman Upset Thompson Skipping Debate
Fred Thompson's exploratory committee has announced he will his declare his candidacy right after midnight following the GOP debate in New Hampshire next week, meaning he will not participate in the event. The state's GOP Chair, Fergus Cullen, said he is "disappointed" with Thompson's decision. "They are clearly trying to avoid this specific event," Cullen said.

This is big: Republican sources are telling CNN that the Republican National Committee was all set to release a statement calling on Larry Craig to resign.

But the RNC held back, these sources say, because they'd gotten reliable indications that the Senator was genuinely considering stepping down himself.

By threatening to release such a statement, and more to the point, by leaking word of such a statement and leaking word that the Senator is considering resigning himself, the RNC is actively pushing one of its own senior Senators out of office, basically sealing the deal on Craig's fate.

The RNC, we're guessing, wants this thing done now, on a Friday before Labor Day weekend, so that it'll have a bit less of an impact. It looks like it'll work, too: The same sources are telling CNN that Craig may resign as early as today.

Question: When's the last time one of the national party committees called on one of their own senior senators to resign?

More soon.

Thompson Declaring Next Week
As we reported earlier, Fred Thompson's undeclared campaign will finally declare next week. His itinerary, according to his campaign's conference call today with bloggers: On Wednesday night he will miss a Republican debate in New Hampshire, instead doing one last "testing the waters" tease on The Tonight Show With Jay Leno. Then at 12:01 a.m. ET on Thursday, he will declare his candidacy with a video Webcast. Then on Thursday he'll file his official campaign papers and begin touring, and on Thursday night he'll greet supporters nationwide via conference call.

Wyoming GOPer: We're Trying To Break The Primary Calendar
Wyoming Republican Party official Tom Sansonetti gave the Associated Press an amazing insight as to why his state party has moved to hold their delegate-selection conventions on January 5, a whole month ahead of the officially sanctioned date. "Ultimately the goal here is to look beyond 2008 and fix the system, because the system is broken," Sansonetti said. "All this jumping around is because the states feel disenfranchised by letting Iowa and New Hampshire call the shots."

Poll: Romney Leads In Iowa — GOPers Support Humanitarian Positions
A new poll by Republican firm McLaughlin & Associates, conducted on behalf of the anti-poverty ONE campaign, showed Mitt Romney leading the GOP field in Iowa by a huge margin. Mitt has 35%, followed by Rudy Giuliani with 12% and in a three-way statistical tie for second with Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee, who each have 11%. Also, the poll finds overwhelming support, at two thirds or higher, for such humanitarian pursuits as reducing worldwide poverty, hunger and diseases.

Huckabee Pleased With Post-Ames Campaign
Mike Huckabee told IowaPolitics.com that his campaign has been going great since his surprise second-place finish at the Iowa Straw Poll, with larger crowds at his events, money coming in, and millions of hits registering on the campaign Web site. "A lot of this is coming from our effort in Ames," Huckabee said.

Homeless Advocacy Group Challenges Candidates To Spend Night On Streets
An advocacy group called National Coalition for the Homeless has extended an intriguing challenge to the presidential candidates: Learn what it's like for the homeless by spending one night on the streets. “For candidates, their short stints as faceless indigents would help them better understand the impact of public policy decisions on those who live in the streets,” said NCH acting director Michael Stoops. It's hard to imagine the Secret Service, let alone the campaign consultants, ever consenting to something like this.

Rangel Attorney Makes Small Request Over Large Sum
Phu Huynh, attorney for House Ways and Means Chairman Charlie Rangel's (D-NY) campaign, has asked the Federal Election Commission for permission to spend $64,500 in campaign funds on the chairman's official portrait. "Portrait artists determine fees based largely upon reputation, but the size of the subject and detail required also factor heavily in the pricing," wrote Huynh, justifying the large price tag. His legal reasoning may well get Rangel the permission. But he's hardly being flattering toward his client, is he?

The Obama campaign -- like just about every other Democrat in our fair galaxy -- is returning contributions it got from Norman Hsu, the big-time fundraiser for Hillary and other Dems who, it turns out, is a fugitive on a fraud rap. Obama spokesperson Bill Burton sends over the following statement:

We have given the $7,000 in contributions from Hsu to charity and sent a letter to the Paws to affirm that the contribution they gave were from their own funds and not those of others.

The question now facing Obama and Hillary and many others is whether to give back money that was bundled by Hsu -- such as the Paws contribution referenced above. Sending this letter to the Paws could end up solving this problem. A source with knowledge of such matters tells me that if the Paws were to falsely affirm that the contribution was theirs they could be held legally liable for aiding in the falsification of an FEC report.

Meanwhile, Hillary, who's also agreed to return Hsu's money, if not the cash bundled by him, has been getting asked about the controversy all day, and Dem candidates who have received his money have scrambled to unload it. We'll share one Hillary quote:

"We have a vetting process," Clinton said in a telephone interview with the Globe. "It didn't work on this one instance apparently for any of us. There were many, many people receiving his contributions, but nobody knew there was an issue."

...and then there's also this absolutely wonderful pushback from New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, who defended Hillary at a press conference today as follows:

"Is Sen Clinton's campaign or any campaign supposed to doing a better job than the authorities of California who theoretically had an open warrant for this guy and didn't do anything? Come on, guys. Let's get real."

Get real, indeed. The bottom line is that there's something deeply silly about these controversies, which despite all the heavy breathing about dark criminal conspiracies are all too often at bottom really about clerical errors.

The running disaster that is the 2008 primary calendar continues — the Michigan state House has now voted to move their primary up to January 15. That is a full three weeks ahead of the DNC's officially sanctioned date of February 5, and two weeks ahead of Florida's unauthorized date of January 29.

Considering the way the DNC has threatened to take away every last delegate from Florida's primary if they don't change the date, expect them to really lean on Michigan. However, the primary date has not passed in the legislature by veto-proof margins. As such, there is one avenue left in order to avoid a showdown: Expect the DNC to work hard pressuring Governor Jennifer Granholm (D) to veto the change, though her office has indicated that she supports it.

The battle of the Dems for labor support continues today, with the Edwards campaign now confirming that he has secured the endorsement of the 520,000-strong carpenters union.

This is a big get for Edwards, because it'll quiet all the "Edwards is failing to get the support of labor" talk that has been swirling since Chris Dodd announced that he'd scored the backing of the firefighters union.

That talk increased this morning, when Hillary's campaign announced that it had won the support of another major union, the machinists. The campaigns, obviously, are all duking it out for union support in advance of Labor Day. Question: Where does all this leave Joe Biden, a longtime friend of labor?

Statements from the Edwards and Hillary campaigns on these endorsements after the jump.

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Yesterday we told you about an alleged conflict of interest at a major newspaper in Maine, the Bangor Daily News. The executive editor is one Mark Woodward, who not only used to serve as a press secretary for Senator Susan Collins (R-ME), but his wife Bridget is currently a staffer at Collins' Bangor district office.

Thus, it seemed suspicious to us that the paper had been editorializing against the campaign of Collins' Democratic opponent, Congressman Tom Allen, for sending a tracker to videotape Collins' public appearances. After several days of attempting to contact Mark and Bridget Woodward and hear their side of the story, we ran a post.

Now Senator Collins' office has responded.

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Here's a sign that Republican leaders may view the Wide Stance Scandal as potentially detrimental to their chances in 2008: John Ensign, the head of the GOPs efforts to win Senate seats, has now joined the chorus of GOP voices suggesting that Craig resign:

Ensign stopped short of calling on Craig to resign his seat, but strongly suggested he do so.

"I wouldn't put myself hopefully in that kind of position, but if I was in a position like that, that's what I would do," he said. "He's going to have to answer that for himself."

Ensign added that "pressure will continue to build" for Craig to go. It certainly will if Ensign has his way.

As we reported yesterday, the influential New Hampshire Union Leader, a major voice of Republicanism in the crucial primary state, published an editorial challenging Fred Thompson in no uncertain terms to attend the GOP debate in the state next week: "Republicans are starting to think that his heart is not in it, and they are getting tired of the teasing."

Well, now the paper apparently has its answer from Thompson: Nope.

According to sources who spoke to CNN, Thompson will likely not officially declare his candidacy until some time after September 5, and as a result won't be showing up for the debate.

If and when he does finally declare, something tells us Thompson won't be getting the Union Leader's endorsement for the primary.

Meanwhile, top Thompson officials are reportedly holding a conference call with top supporters today to brief them on plans for the upcoming announcement.

Update: It's now being reported that Thompson will declare on September 6 — one day after the debate. This brings to mind the following from that Union Leader editorial:

If Thompson waits until after the debate to make his announcement, it will appear to some as if he timed the announcement just to avoid the New Hampshire debate. That would give his foes the chance to say he is either not serious about running for the nomination or is too unprepared to be considered a credible candidate.

Jonathan Martin:

Sen. John Warner will announce tomorrow at the University of Virginia whether or not he intends to seek a sixth term, according to two top Virginia sources. Warner is planning a 2 p.m. news conference on the grounds of the Charlottesville, Va., school, where he took his law degree over 50 years ago. The Virginian will give his speech near the statue of Thomas Jefferson on the steps of the school’s famous Rotunda, adding a fitting Warner flourish to the event.

A Warner retirement, obviously, would be huge news, potentially making the 2008 Senate map look even better for the Dems. Many analysts think that such a move would open a clear path to the seat for another Virginian named Warner -- this one a Dem named Mark.

If that were to happen, both of this southern state's Senate seats would have flipped from red to blue -- in the space of two years. Last year, of course, Dem Senator Jim Webb won a surprise victory over GOP incumbent George Allen.

We've got a call into Warner's office for confirmation. More in a bit.

Nancy Pelosi reacts to the today's big news, which is that the nonpartisan General Accounting Office has concluded in a very negative report that only three of 18 benchmarks for progress have been met in Iraq:

“The President is demanding tens of billions more dollars for the war in Iraq despite non-partisan conclusions, such as the draft GAO report and the recent National Intelligence Estimate, that the Iraqi government has failed to achieve required reforms.

“As in the past, President Bush stubbornly refuses to acknowledge the facts on the ground about the sectarian civil war in Iraq or the growing bipartisan opposition to his failed policies. He insists that our soldiers sacrifice even more, and taxpayers spend billions more dollars for an Iraqi government incapable or unwilling to institute reforms required by the President himself.

“With the President continuing to stay the course in Iraq, Republicans will have to decide whether they will continue to vote with him or join Democrats and the vast majority of Americans who are demanding a new direction in Iraq and refocusing America's efforts on fighting the real threats of terrorism around the world.”

TPMmuckraker's analysis of the GAO report is here.

It's happening almost too fast to keep track of, but here are five more GOP members of Congress who have called on Wide Stance Craig to go:

Rep. Mark Souder (R-IN)

Rep. Jeff Miller (R-FL)

Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite (R-FL)

Rep. Bobby Jindal (R-LA)

Rep. Ron Lewis (R-KY)

The number of resignation calls, of course, can only go up.

Meanwhile, Senator Norm Coleman has decided that it isn't enough that he called for Craig to go yesterday; now he's gone and returned Craig's campaign contributions, too.

Late Update: Think Progress has a good rundown on the rather different reaction GOP pols had to the David Vitter scandal.

One interesting subplot in Campaign 2008 worth noting is that the Edwards and Obama camps are now both pushing a similar line against Hillary -- chiefly, that you shouldn't vote for her because lots of Republicans dislike her:

Here is Elizabeth Edwards:

"I want to be perfectly clear: I do not think the hatred against Hillary Clinton is justified. I don't know where it comes from. I don't begin to understand it. But you can't pretend it doesn't exist, and it will energize the Republican base. Their nominee won't energize them, Bush won't, but Hillary as the nominee will. It's hard for John to talk about, but it's the reality."

And here is Obama:

"I think it is fair to say that I believe I can bring the country together more effectively than she can," Obama said. "I will add, by the way, that is not entirely a problem of her making. Some of those battles in the '90s that she went through were the result of some pretty unfair attacks on the Clintons. But that history exists, and so, yes, I believe I can bring the country together in a way she cannot do. If I didn't believe that, I wouldn't be running."

Readers, we'd like to hear from you on this. Is there something questionable about this -- i.e., that they're both saying that the attacks on Hillary from the right are unfair while simultaneously calling attention to them and using them to their own advantage?

Or is a legit case being made here -- i.e., that Hillary's history with Republicans is something that could damage the Democratic Party's prospects in a larger sense?

A new round of American Research Group polls in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina show Hillary Clinton leading among Democrats in all three of these key swing states, while Mitt Romney is ahead for the Republicans in Iowa and New Hampshire but struggling to break through in South Carolina.

Interesting tidbit: Mike Huckabee now seems to be rising from obscurity after his second-place showing in the Iowa Straw Poll.

Iowa:
Democrats:
Clinton 28%
Obama 23%
Edwards 20%

Republicans:
Romney 27%
Giuliani 17%
Huckabee 14%
Thompson 13%
Gingrich 7%
McCain 5%

New Hampshire:
Democrats:
Clinton 37%
Obama 17%
Edwards 14%

Republicans:
Romney 27%
Giuliani 23%
McCain 12%
Huckabee 9%

South Carolina:
Democrats:
Clinton 32%
Edwards 24%
Obama 21%

Republicans:
Giuliani 26%
Thompson 21%
McCain 12%
Romney 9%
Huckabee 9%

More bad news for GOP Senator Larry Craig: Even one of his most loyal and longtime allies, Idaho Governor Butch Otter, is offering him only tepid support. From this morning's Idaho Statesman:

Craig found support from Gov. Butch Otter, a fellow Republican who has known him for 35 years.

Otter said he and first lady Lori Otter met with Craig and his wife, Suzanne, on Tuesday. "I told him, ‘Larry, I've made a few mistakes in my private life that slopped over into public news, and you're going to find out really quick who your friends are, but I want you to know that Lori and I are your friends,'" Otter said.

Otter is no stranger to public scrutiny, though not on the scale Craig is now experiencing. In 1992, when Otter was lieutenant governor, he was arrested for driving under the influence. Otter was convicted and stayed in office.

Otter declined to say whether Craig should quit. "I'm not going to go there," Otter said. "That's up to him."

Not exactly standing by his man. One more indication that the clock is ticking.

McCain Campaign Uses Vietnam Interrogation Film
A new John McCain campaign Web video, "Courageous," opens with footage of McCain's interrogation when he was a P.O.W. in Vietnam, showing a badly injured 31-year old McCain in a hospital bed. "What is it that defines a great leader?" a narrator then asks. "Is it his courage? Is it his courage to do the difficult, and not just the easy things? Is it the courage to fight — to fight to survive?"

Hillary Camp Divesting Money From Fugitive Donor
Hillary Clinton's campaign announced yesterday that they are donating to charity $23,000 they had received from New York businessman Norman Hsu, and review thousands of dollars more that they have received through him. Hsu is in fact a fugitive from justice in the state of California, having failed to show up for sentencing after his conviction in 1991 for fraud. Other Democratic candidates are also divesting money received through Hsu, including Al Franken in Minnesota. However, a spokesman for Barack Obama's campaign said they have no plans to return or donate their money from Hsu.

Thompson Hires New Communications Director
Fred Thompson's undeclared campaign replaced its recently-resigned communications director, Linda Rozett, with Todd Harris. Harris has previously worked as a spokesman for John McCain in 2000, as communications director for Jeb Bush in 2002, and as a communications strategist for Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2003 — an impressive set of GOP credentials.

Poll: Edwards Continues To Lead In Iowa
John Edwards' campaign is betting heavily on a strong Iowa victory in order to catapult the candidate over his opponents. So far, so good, according to a new poll from Time, showing John Edwards with 29% of likely Iowa caucus goers, 24% for Clinton, and 22% for Obama.

Poll: Hillary And Rudy Ahead In New Jersey
A new poll from Republican firm Strategic Vision shows Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani with huge leads in their respective parties in New Jersey. The Democratic numbers: Clinton 49%, Obama 22%, Edwards 8%, Richardson 5%. The Republicans: Giuliani 51%, Thompson 12%, Romney 9%, McCain 7%.

Anti-War Group Plans Protest In Congress
America Stands Watch, an anti-war group, is organizing a protest inside the House and Senate Chambers. When given a signal, the protesters will simply stand up and silently "watch over" Congress. “We will remain standing as long as we can, but we expect that security will not allow this to go on for very long," the group's plan states. They might get attention for this, but they won't be able to do it for long — gallery rules require that people remain seated.

Proposed Spanish GOP Debate Cancelled
A Univisión Republican debate scheduled for September 16 at the University of Miami has been cancelled. Only one GOP candidate, John McCain, had agreed to attend the Spanish-language event. By contrast, the Democratic debate is still scheduled for September 9, and all eight Dem candidates plan to attend.

Union Leader To Thompson: Do A Debate
The conservative New Hampshire Union Leader, the largest newspaper in the crucial primary state, has an editorial today challenging Fred Thompson to come to New Hampshire and participate in a debate scheduled for September 5. "Thompson's main weakness right now is his commitment to the race," the paper says. "Republicans are starting to think that his heart is not in it, and they are getting tired of the teasing."

Wyoming GOP Moves Contest To January 5
The Wyoming Republican Party has voted to move their delegate-selection conventions to January 5, a whole month ahead of the RNC's officially blessed date of February 5. "We're first in the nation," said Tom Sansonetti, the state GOP's county convention coordinator, sounding completely defiant. "At least for the next couple, three weeks until New Hampshire and Iowa move, which I expect they will." Expect the national GOP to come down like a ton of bricks on the Wyoming party, and disqualify most or even all delegates selected in this manner.

Professor Decides Against Minnesota Senate Race
Nobel Prize-winning chemist and Duke University Professor Peter Agre has announced that he will not be seeking the Democratic nomination for Senate from Minnesota, as he had been considering throughout this Summer. "As much as I'd like to run, I've decided it's just not the time to step in," Agre told the Associated Press. "It's late. I just don't think I can make the race." Agre declined to endorse any of the current candidates at this time.

Filner Releases Statement On Alleged Airport Rage Incident
Congressman Bob Filner (D-CA), who faces assault and battery charges for allegedly pushing a United Airlines baggage employee ten days ago at Dulles airport when his luggage was delayed, has released a short statement expressing his regret: "I was tired after a delayed flight and frustrated by the subsequent further delay of the entire flight's baggage. But I did not want things to turn out as they did, with offense obviously taken and much misunderstanding. This is an episode that I regret and hope to move beyond."

ACT Agrees To Pay $775,000 Fine
The Federal Election Commission announced today that it has entered into an agreement with America Coming Together, a George Soros-funded 527 group that did extensive get-out-the-vote activities in the 2004 election. ACT has agreed to pay $775,000, the third largest civil penalty in FEC history, for breaking fundraising and spending limits, and using money officially listed as non-federal for federal purposes. (ed.note: I was an ACT canvasser in 2004, and did payroll work for their get-out-the-vote drive on Election Day.)

Huckabee On Thompson: People Think They're Electing Arthur Branch
In an interview with David Brody, Mike Huckabee had some choice words about Fred Thompson. "I frankly don't get it. I mean I'm not being unkind I just don't understand it because there's not a substantial record in the Senate in him having authored the landmark signature bill that changed America. There's not been in essence the kind of thing that says boy I remember when he did and then you fill in the blank. I think a lot of it is that people aren't sure whether they're electing a former senator or Arthur Branch." Arthur Branch is the character Thompson played on Law & Order.

Mitt Romney goes up on the air in Iowa and New Hampshire with this new ad:

The ad shows Romney jogging and huffing and puffing as a narrator ticks off his achievements in not just government, but the private sector, too. Jonathan Martin observes that the jogging shtick is intended to send a message about what another well-known Massachusetts pol called "vigah." Martin sees this as a swipe at Fred Thompson, whose reluctance to declare his candidacy makes him look lackluster in comparison with Romney's sweat and obvious hunger for the job.

Of course, the ad could just be about letting the world know that Romney can jog and talk at the same time.

"I can say without equivocation that no one who is running for president has presented anywhere near as comprehensive and accurate a prediction of what our country ought to do in the field of environmental quality, in the field of health care for those who are not presently insured, for those who struggle with poverty."

-- Former President Jimmy Carter, speaking about John Edwards as the two shared a stage together today in Georgia. The Associated Press says Carter stopped short of endorsing Edwards, but that quote came about as close to an endorsement as you possibly could.