DNC Expected To Take A Hard Line Against Florida Today
The Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee is meeting today, and is expected to vote to strip Florida of some or even all delegates from their primary, as well as possibly impose penalties on candidates who campaign there, in response to the rogue state's unauthorized move of their primary date up to January 29. "You now see the end of a system that we've been living with since the 1970s," said Gore 2000 campaign manager Donna Brazile, a member of the rules committee. "It fell apart in the last cycle, but we kept it together with very interesting glue and duct tape. Unfortunately, this is really out of control."

Iowa Considering Legislation For A January Caucus
Iowa legislative leaders are discussing with Governor Chet Culver (D) the idea of passing legislation to require the state's caucus remain in January of 2008, and not shift ahead into December 2007. One possible solution is to have less time than the traditional one-week gap after the caucus and before the New Hampshire primary, which is currently expected to be held on January 8.

2007 Nominating Contests Could Open Up A Whole New Fundraising Opportunity
The Associated Press reports that a wrinkle in federal law could give presidential candidates a whole new opportunity to raise money if the Iowa caucus were to actually move into 2007. Federal law states, "All elections held in any calendar year for the office of the president of the United States (except for the general election for such office) shall be considered to be one election." In other words, a December 2007 caucus could give the campaigns an opportunity to squeeze yet another $2,300 out of wealthy donors, in addition to the $2,300 they could already raise for the primary season.

Rudy To Pitch Lower Taxes — Flanked By Former Mass. Governor Cellucci
Rudy Giuliani is pitching a tax plan today in New Hampshire, consisting of not only making the Bush tax cuts permanent but leaving the door open to cutting rates even further. On hand with Rudy will be former Massachusetts Governor Paul Cellucci, who criticized Mitt Romney's record to David Brody. "The difference is that Rudy Giuliani has done it and Mitt Romney has not," Cellucci said. "He was Governor for four years ... Mitt has not cut any taxes as Governor of Massachusetts."

NYT: Rudy Exaggerates Tax Record
Rudy Giuliani has been boasting on the campaign trail that he inherited a multi-billion dollar budget gap when he came into office as mayor of New York City, and created a multi-billion dollar surplus. In fact, the New York Times reports, Giuliani briefly created a surplus during the 1990's economic boom, but by the time he left office he was leaving behind a larger deficit than the one he'd inherited. "And that deficit would have been large even if the city had not been attacked on Sept. 11, 2001," the paper reports.

Former Basketball Coach Versace Considering Democratic Run For Congress
Former Indiana Pacers coach Dick Versace, age 67, is considering a run for the Congressional seat of Ray LaHood (R-IL), who is retiring in 2008 after seven terms. Versace would run as a Democrat in the heavily Republican 18th District, which President Bush won by 16 points in 2004. "When I take on a challenge, I go after it, and I've got a winning track record," Versace said.

Republicans Looking At Renzi's Open Seat
Potential Republican candidates are lining up for the open seat of Congressman Rick Renzi (R-AZ), who announced his retirement this week after being dogged by ethics scandals. Arizona's First Congressional District is a diverse place, set up by redistricting in 2001 to be a swing seat. The population includes Mormons, Native Americans, farmers, miners, environmentalists, retirees, and others. Potential candidates include 2002 primary candidate Sydney hay, former state Senate President Ken Bennett, rancher Steve Pierce, state Senator Tom O'Halleran, state Representative Bill Konopnicki, and Arizona Corporation Commission chair Kristin Mayers.

Edwards: "Lincoln Bedroom" Line Was Not An Attack On Hillary
John Edwards said today that a line from his speech yesterday, in which he declared that "the Lincoln Bedroom is not for rent," was not an attack on Hillary Clinton. "Nothing I said yesterday has anything to do with other presidential candidates," Edwards said. "They need to move off of thinking about themselves and think about what's important for the country, which is what I'm focused on." Also, he was not saying "Boo," he was saying "Boo-urns."

Chris Dodd Blasts Hillary, Calls Her Terrorism Remarks "Tasteless"
Chris Dodd released a statement lambasting Hillary Clinton for saying that a potential terrorist attack would give the Republicans a political advatange, and she was the best candidate to deal with that. "Frankly, I find it tasteless to discuss political implications when talking about a potential terrorist attack on the United States," Dodd said. A Hillary spokesman offered this clarification: "Sen. Clinton was making clear that she has the strength and experience to keep the country safe."

Edwards Camp: Hillary's Terror Remarks "Deeply Troubling"
John Edwards spokesman Chris Kofinis also blasted Hillary: "Senator Clinton’s remarks are deeply troubling. After nearly seven years of George Bush and the politics of fear, the American people deserve a President who will focus first on keeping America safe, rather than calculating the political consequences. Unfortunately, Senator Clinton is seemingly taking a page straight from the GOP playbook that got us into this mess — using fear of another terror attack as a political tactic to bolster her candidacy, and that is just wrong."

Richardson: Hillary "Seems To Think" Bush Has Made Us Safer
Bill Richardson had a statement, as well. "We shouldn't be thinking about terrorism in terms of its domestic political consequences, we should be protecting the country from terrorists," said Richardson. "Senator Clinton seems to think that President Bush has made this country safer. I disagree with her. Our failed policy in Iraq is making us less safe."

Obama Camp: Hillary Obsessed With Republican Attack Machine
Barack Obama advisor David Axelrod said that Hillary Clinton has been obsessed "with what she calls the Republican attack machine." Instead, Axelrod said, "I think we need a candidate who is obsessed with unifying this country again."

Brzezinski Endorses Obama
Zbigniew Brzezinski, who served as national security advisor in the Carter Administration, has endorsed Barack Obama. "He has a sense of what is historically relevant, and what is needed from the United States in relationship to the world," said Brzezinski, who also took a shot at Hillary Clinton's claim of being experienced enough, saying that "Being a former first lady doesn't prepare you to be president;" and, "I don't think the country needs to go back to what we had eight years ago."

Doolittle Loses Key Backer
Ken Campbell, a California Republican activists and longtime financial backer of scandal-plagued Congressman John Doolittle (R-CA), now says he is dropping his support for the Congressman. Interestingly enough, Campbell cited Doolittle's votes on earmarks, not the corruption investigations against the Congressman, as his reason for backing away from him. "I think when this conservative district sees how John spends their money, I think John doesn't have a chance," Campbell said. Doolittle currently faces two primary challengers: Iraq veteran and pro-war activist Eric Egland, and former Auburn Mayor Mike Holmes.

Moderate GOP Group Endorses Jeb Bradley
The Republican Main Street Partnership, a moderate GOP group that is heavily involved in intramural fights with conservatives in New Hampshire, is endorsing the comeback bid of former Congressman Jeb Bradley, who was defeated last year in an upset. Interestingly enough, the current chairman of the RMSP is Charlie Bass, a former Congressman who was also defeated with Bradley in last year's Democratic wave. Bradley faces a primary against former state Health and Human Services Commissioner John Stephen, whom he previously defeated in the 2002 primary for a then-open seat.

A group of top Michigan Democrats, including both U.S. Senators and four out of six House members, have written a joint letter to Dem Governor Jennifer Granholm, state Democratic chairman Mark Brewer and state Republican chairman Saul Anuzis, making the case for their effort to have Michigan's primary held early, on January 15.

"We support efforts to make the overall Presidential nominating process more reflective of the diversity of this country, and strongly believe that manufacturing issues need to be part of the Presidential candidate dialogue," the letter says — a clear contrast with Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, the thinly populated states that are currently allowed to go in January. "Embracing an early, inclusive contest would ensure that those issues are raised and our Michigan viewpoints are heard. An early, inclusive primary election is the best way to ensure the issues of trade, health care, and manufacturing are in the national limelight."

The letter has been released ahead of tomorrow's meeting of the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee, which is expected to vote for strong sanctions against Florida's planned January 29 primary. And if Florida is to be punished for a January 29 primary — potentially through having a significant number of delegates taken away from their allotment — then you can bet that stiff penalties are planned if Michigan goes ahead with January 15.

The Republican-controlled Michigan state Senate has already passed a bill to schedule the primary on the early date, and the bill now awaits approval by the Democratically-controlled House, plus Granholm's signature. Be on the lookout for national Democrats to lean on Granholm to veto the bill if it reaches her desk.

Read the full letter after the jump.

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Geoffrey Fieger, a prominent attorney who was the Democrats' nominee in an unsuccessful bid for governor of Michigan in 1998 against incumbent John Engler, was indicted today for conspiracy to make illegal campaign contributions to John Edwards in 2004.

Prosecutors claim that Fieger attempted to illegally donate over $125,000 to Edwards' campaign, about 60 times more than the legal limit for personal contributions to a primary campaign, by falsely reporting it as a bundle of donations from separate individuals.

According to the U.S. Attorney's office, John Edwards' campaign had no knowledge of or involvement in the alleged conspiracy and cooperated fully with investigators, so the indictment is Fieger's problem alone.

Geoffrey Fieger is also widely known for representing Dr. Jack Kevorkian in court, the physician who promoted assistant suicide and went to prison for having personally killed terminally ill patients.

Here's an interesting item in today's New York Post, quoting Hillary Clinton:

"It's a horrible prospect to ask yourself, 'What if? What if?' But if certain things happen between now and the election, particularly with respect to terrorism, that will automatically give the Republicans an advantage again, no matter how badly they have mishandled it, no matter how much more dangerous they have made the world," Clinton told supporters in Concord.

"So I think I'm the best of the Democrats to deal with that," she added.

The Post puts this in the context of a hypothetical terrorist attack, saying that Hillary believes such an incident would boost the GOP out of hand.

So is Hillary's assumption — that a new terror attack after years of Republican rule would in fact help the GOP — actually correct? What would happen if the worst came to pass?

Yesterday's Pew poll gives an interesting perspective on the question of Hillary Clinton's electability. It turns out that her favorable rating among all voters is in statistically identical to Rudy Giuliani's — in fact, it's nominally one point higher. Hillary gets a 55% approval rating, with 21 points of that very favorable, compared to Rudy's 54% favorable, with only 12% very favorable. Not bad for a woman who's been through multiple national campaigns worth of dirt, to be just as liked, and more intensely liked, as "America's Mayor."

On the other hand, Hillary's reputation for being a polarizing figure also has a lot of evidence to back it up. Hillary's unfavorables are at 39%, with 21 points very unfavorable, compared to Rudy's much better 28%, with nine points very unfavorable. Hillary has the highest favorables among all the presidential candidates, while she also has the highest unfavorables. But there's one thing America's Mayor has over Hillary: He hasn't been through the ringer like she has.

So does this matter? If 39% of the people hate Hillary, that just means that after years of getting to know her, a strong minority don't intend to vote her — and a majority are within her grasp. What's new?

As for Rudy, what might his ratings look like once his dirty laundry has been aired before a wider audience — for example, his false claim to have spent as much time at the World Trade Center site as the rescue workers? As it is, he's only about as popular as ... Hillary Clinton.

Romney To Offer Health Plan — Starkly Different From Massachusetts Plan
Mitt Romney will give a speech at noon today laying out his health plan, which will be quite different from the Massachusetts Health Reform Law he signed when he was governor. His plan will reportedly include one aspect of the Massachusetts plan, redirecting public money currently spent on emergency room care and instead using it to get low-income people insured. But the plan will not require that people have insurance, as the Massachusetts plan does, and will include conservative pet issues like tax breaks and limits on punitive damages in malpractice cases.

Fox Poll: Hillary And Rudy Continue To Lead Nationally — Edwards Below Ten
The new Fox News poll shows Hillary Clinton ahead nationally with 35% support among Democrats, followed by Barack Obama at 23%, non-candidate Al Gore at 10%, and John Edwards with 6%. The numbers without Gore included: Clinton 38%, Obama 25%, Edward 8%. On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani has 29%, Fred Thompson 14%, Mitt Romney 11%, and John McCain 7%.

Arnold Dubious On California Electoral Vote Plan
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA) gave a chilly reception to a Republican-backed voter initiative for 2008 that would award the state's electoral votes based on who carries the individual House districts — a proposal that would give the Republican nominee around 20 votes. "In principle, I don't like to change the rules in the middle of the game," Schwarzenegger. On the other hand, Schwarzenegger said he hasn't look at the proposal in depth and is not taking a definite position — so he could be keeping his options open.

Obama: Debate Over Maliki Is A Distraction
In an interview with CNN yesterday, Barack Obama said that Hillary Clinton's call for the ouster of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is a distraction from the real issues. "We can replace Maliki with four, five other guys, but if the underlying political dynamic is not changing, then we will not see progress in Iraq," Obama said. Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin had previously called for a vote of no confidence in Maliki, while the White House is standing firm in their support of him.

Jerry Brown Eyeing 2010 California Gubernatorial Race
California Attorney General Jerry Brown told the Sacramento Bee that he is considering a run for governor in 2010, when he will be 72 years old. "I've certainly talked about it. But I've thought about it, and I've decided I'm not going to think about it in any serious way certainly for the next year," Brown said. Brown is a well-known brand in state politics, having already served two terms as governor in the late 1970's and early 1980's, mounting three bids for president in 1976, 1980 and 1992, an unsuccessful Senate campaign in 1982, and a recent successful tenure as mayor of Oakland.

Bob Kerrey Laying Groundwork For Nebraska Senate Comeback
Former Senator Bob Kerrey (D-NE), currently serving as head of the New School, has informed the trustees in a conference call that he might be going back to Nebraska and running for Senate if two-term Republican Chuck Hagel retires. "I am more and more certain Chuck is not going to seek re-election, and my intention is to make my decision before he makes an announcement," Kerrey told the Lincoln Journal Star. Kerrey has previously said that if Hagel does in fact seek re-election then he would not only not run, he would write his friend and former co-Senator a check. But if Hagel does leave, then expect this race to be a huge pickup opportunity for the Democrats.

Obama To Skip Iowa AARP Forum
Barack Obama will be skipping an AARP forum in Iowa on September 20, in accordance with his campaign's decision to not attend any more forums in 2007 except for those already confirmed. The forum, held in Davenport, will be broadcast live on PBS and feature three candidates to have confirmed thus far: Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and Bill Richardson.

Rudy Hires The "Harold, Call Me" Media Firm
Rudy Giuliani's campaign has hired the Dallas-based media firm Scott Howell & Company — the same firm that produced the infamous "Harold, Call Me" ad in the 2006 Tennessee Senate race. The ad, in case you don't remember, featured a bare-shouldered blonde white woman saying she met black Democratic nominee Harold Ford at a Playboy party, and the ad ended with her saying, "Harold, call me."

Michigan Senate Dem Leader Declares Against GOP Congressman Walberg
In Michigan, Democratic state Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer has announced that he will challenge freshman Republican Congressman Tim Walberg next year. Running in a traditionally Republican district, Walberg was only narrowly elected in 2006 over a token Democratic opponent after he'd defeated moderate incumbent Congressman Joe Schwarz in the GOP primary. "He's really been a servant of the Bush-Cheney administration and the extreme special interests in Washington," Schauer told the Associated Press.

Florida Dems Threaten Lawsuit Against National Committee
Five Florida Democrats — Senator Bill Nelson and Representatives Alcee Hastings, Kendrick Meek, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, and Kathy Castor — have written a letter to the Democratic National Committee in which they threaten a lawsuit if the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee votes this weekend to impose sanctions against the rogue state's planned January 29 primary, ahead of the national parties' officially blessed date of February 5. "If true — and, if the DNC strips Florida of all or some of its delegates to the national convention — we would ask the appropriate legal officials to determine whether this could violate any state or federal laws governing and protecting individual voting rights," they wrote.

Democratic National Committee To Meet To Sort Out Primary Mess
Amid the chaos of the developing primary/caucus calendar, Iowa Governor Chet Culver (D) is vowing that his caucus will remain the first contest in the nation — and urging sanctions against states like Florida and Michigan. "I think there need to be consequences for those states that don't abide by the party rules," said Culver. "And historically, that has always helped us set the calendar. Without rules, it would be impossible to ever settle on a calendar."

Republicans Seek To Counter Liberal Online Fundraising Success With "Rightroots"
Aware that they're getting badly outpaced by liberal online fundraising successes, Republicans are trying to redress the balance with a new organization called "Rightroots." The organization "was established to counter the political left's strength in online fundraising as manifested by ActBlue, a well-designed and influential site that helps Democratic candidates and their supporters raise campaign funds online," CQ Politics reports. "Rightroots' organizers see the site as a convenient 'one-stop shop' for Republican users who might have trouble finding the Web sites of individual GOP candidates."

Fox News/Black Caucus Debate Cancelled
The proposed Fox News/Congressional Black Caucus Institute debate for September 23 has been postponed indefinitely — in all likelihood cancelled. The frontrunners had all indicated they would not be participating in a Fox News debate, and only three candidates had accepted: Joe Biden, Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel. It's too bad — a full-length debate with those three sure would have been fun to watch.

Mitt Romney will be giving a speech tomorrow in which he is expected to put forward a detailed plan on health care, emphasizing free markets.

In the process, Romney will point to his successful passage of the Massachusetts Health Reform Law -- something which Romney likes to tout as proof of his conservatism.

But Romney's efforts to showcase that achievement could be complicated by new video from 2006 -- which we've obtained from a rival campaign -- in which he gushes with praise for Ted Kennedy's contribution to the bill.

Romney has been using this health care law to show that he was a tough conservative reining in liberal excess in Massachusetts -- a broader theme that he's been sounding on multiple issues. He has sought to present himself as having worked hard to ensure that his state's health care reform law was a conservative one — and has even joked to conservative audiences about how nervous he was regarding Ted Kennedy's involvement.

On January 27 of this year, Romney told the National Review Institute Conservative Summit, "I don't know what' going to happen with it down the road, as the Democrats get their hands with it. But I know we have to fight for solutions. By the way, I was a little concerned at the signing statement when Ted Kennedy showed up."

But at the bill signing on April 26, 2006, none of that concern seemed apparent -- indeed, Romney gushed about Kennedy's contribution to the bill and described Kennedy as his "collaborator and friend." According to the video of the bill signing which we've obtained, Romney said:

"Senator Kennedy: Together, we pitched the secretaries on our vision to insure all our citizens, and on the need for federal support to make the vision real. His work in Washington and behind the scenes on Beacon Hill was absolutely essential."

"It's now my pleasure to introduce my collaborator and friend, Senator Edward Kennedy," Romney concluded. As Ted Kennedy took the stage to massive applause — including some from Romney — the two shook hands. Take a look at our video:

Asked for a reply, Romney spokesperson Kevin Madden said that Romney's expressions of worry about Kennedy were meant to be humorous. Madden's statement:

My advice to rival campaigns is this: make sure you hire at least a few research staffers with a sense of humor before you send around video clips. That way they can spot humor that is obvious to everyone else but them.

Governor Romney has frequently made the humorous observation on the bipartisan health care plan achievement by saying that if he and Ted Kennedy can agree on a bill, then one of them probably didn’t read it. Well, in this case, Governor Romney wrote the bill.

On a serious side, the agreement introduced important free-market principles to achieve more affordable health care coverage for the state’s residents. This was achieved by securing more regulatory flexibility so that federal dollars can be used to cover more residents with private health insurance. The governor worked with state and federal officials to get that done.

GOP Senator John Warner of Virginia gave a press conference today that is getting lots of attention from major news organizations, including Reuters and CNN.

The "news" at this press conference is that Warner spoke out in favor of withdrawal from Iraq. Warner calls for withdrawal!

But what did Warner actually say, and what might he actually do to make sure his new policy aims come to pass?

Warner today:

"I can of think no clearer form of that than if the president were to announce on the 15th that in consultation with our senior military commanders, he's decided to initiate the first step in a withdrawal of our forces. I say to the president, pick whatever number you wish. You do not want to lose the momentum. But in 160,000-plus, certainly 5,000 could begin to redeploy and be home to their families and loved ones no later than Christmas of this year. That's the first step. Let the president establish the timetable of withdrawal, not the Congress."

5,000 troops? This is speaking out in favor of withdrawal?

Warner said the surge has produced momentum in our favor and added that Bush should start talking about withdrawal — but that Bush should "pick whatever number you wish." And finally, Warner rejected any Congressional action to actually force any kind of enactment of the policy he claims to support.

Pretty forceful stuff.

And another one drops, bringing the number of House GOPers who are retiring to five. And counting.

Muck-encrusted GOP Rep. Rick Renzi of Arizona won't seek reelection, he says in a statement to Roll Call (sub only):

“I will not be seeking re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2008. I am honored and thankful to serve Arizona’s first district and appreciate all that we have accomplished together over the past 6 years.”

Renzi's departure swells the list of GOP Reps. planning to step down at the end of the 110th Congress, a list that now includes Reps. Ray LaHood, Deborah Pryce, Chip Pickering, and former speaker Dennis Hastert.

Though Bush won the GOP leaning district by 54%-46% in 2004, the Dems are considered to have at least a decent shot at flipping it. Dem State Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick recently resigned and announced she'll make a bid for the seat, and at least two other Dems are talking about running.

Renzi's retirement, however, does allow the GOP to try to find a candidate for the district who isn't weighed down by his ethical baggage. Though he was able to survive a tough challenge last year, his political situation has worsened in the wake of an FBI raid of a business linked to his family, a raid that was part of a federal probe into his Congressional activities.

Check out our full coverage of Renzi over at TPMmuckraker.

As noted earlier, John Edwards gave a speech today in which he sharpened his attacks on what he called "corporate Democrats," cautioning against "swapping the Washington insiders of one party for the Washington insiders of the other."

Edwards' indictment of the corporate Dem establishment -- and his warning against "nostalgia" -- is meant to be taken as an attack on the Clintons, though it's certainly not limited to them and is intended as condemnation of a whole class of Beltway insiders.

The full text of the speech is now available, and it's worth a look. We have it after the jump.

The quick and not terribly profound thing I want to point out about this is that it's interesting to note that both Barack Obama and Edwards are using Hillary as a foil in similar but also different ways. Obama is pointing to her as a pillar of the failed Beltway foreign policy establishment that has brought us a failed foreign policy status quo. Meanwhile, Edwards is hitting her as representative of what he's labeling the corporate Dem establishment.

Both Obama and Edwards are trying to cast themselves as the race's real change agent on different fronts -- though there is some overlap -- with Hillary as the foil to both efforts, something that's probably inevitable in part because of her frontrunner status.

The speech is getting some rave reviews, with Matthew Yglesias calling it a very strong speech, and Marc Ambinder asking: "When was the last time a major presidential candidate delivered such a singularly populist speech?"

Meanwhile, Amanda Dobbins over at The Huffington Post accuses Edwards, in his reference to abuses of the Lincoln bedroom, of "channeling GOP politicians." And Taylor Marsh says that this attack is "straight out of the right-wing playbook."

Readers, we really want to hear from you on this one. What do you think of the speech?

It's after the jump.

Update: I wasn't clear enough here. The basic (and obvious) state of play is that both Obama and Edwards are making bids to be seen as the leading genuine progressive alternative to Hillary -- Obama on foreign policy, Edwards on economic issues, though there is some overlap. Stirling Newberry thinks that this speech cements Edwards' position as "the essentially progressive major candidate."

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Harry Reid weighs in with a statement on today's big news -- the National Intelligence Estimate finding that the prospects for political reconciliation in Iraq are bleak indeed:

“Today’s National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq confirms what most Americans already know: Our troops are mired in an Iraqi civil war and the President’s escalation strategy has failed to produce the political results he promised to our troops and the American people.

"Our troops have done everything asked of them and more. Unfortunately Iraq’s leaders have not. And as today’s NIE makes clear, a political solution is extremely unlikely in the near term. Further pursuit of the Administration’s flawed escalation strategy is not in our nation’s best interests.

"Every day that we continue to stick to the President’s flawed strategy is a day that America is not as secure as it could be. As the intelligence community reported in another NIE just weeks ago, America’s attention is distracted from Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda, which has regenerated its capacity to its pre-9/11 levels. That is why it is so essential that this September, Republicans join with Democrats to change course in Iraq and work to restore our nation’s security.”

Great Moments In Fox News ...

Fox News just did a news segment on the Republican-backed initiative in California to apportion the state's electoral votes according to who carries the individual House districts — which if passed would effectively give 20 free electoral votes to the Republicans, from straight out of the Dem column.

Fox's take is hilariously biased, even by the network's practically nonexistent ethical standards. The person brought on to speak in favor of it is described only as "pro-reform"...

...while the person who spoke against was described only as:

We are never told anything more about who these men are, who they work for, or what their partisan activities might be — all we're told is that the guy for this initiative is "pro-reform" and the man opposed to it is "anti-reform."

As it turns out, "pro-reform" Kevin Eckery is a Republican consultant and the spokesman for Californians for Equal Representation, the astro-turf group offering the initiative. And "anti-reform" Ari Swiller is a Democratic fundraiser.

Here's another key aspect of the NIE: In another indication of just how dire the political situation in Iraq is, the assessment judges that move most likely to bring a measure of reconciliation to Iraq would have the side effect of further inflaming Iran.

Notice that the NIE says that the best chance for sectarian reconciliation available is for Maliki to embrace the Sunni tribal fighters that he's reluctant to embrace. If he does, however, and the Sunni fighters grow stronger, that fuels the reasons for Iran's meddling:

Over the next year, Tehran, concerned about a Sunni reemergence in Baghdad and US efforts to limit Iranian influence, will continue to provide funding, weaponry and training to Iraqi Shia militants.

An NIE isn't a strategy paper, and it's not the intelligence community's job to tell policymakers what option to adopt. Still, it's surprising that what the NIE considers the most significant reconciliation move possible will, in all likelihood, lead to a deeper, and more malign, Iranian involvement in Iraq.

The National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq -- an advance copy of which we've obtained -- has some good-if-tentative things to say about the surge. For instance, it says that "the steep escalation of rates of violence has been checked for now," adding that al-Qaeda in Iraq has had its capabilities reduced somewhat.

But it also finds that the capabilities of Nouri al-Maliki to govern Iraq have also been badly reduced. The intelligence community writes:

The Iraqi Government will become more precarious over the next six to 12 months because of criticism by other members of the major Shia coalition (the Unified Iraqi Alliance, UIA), Grand Ayatollah Sistani, and other Sunni and Kurdish parties. Divisions between Maliki and the Sadrists have increased, and Shia factions have explored alternative coalitions aimed at constraining Maliki.

How bad is it for Maliki? Our full analysis after the jump.

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We've just obtained a copy of the new National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq that will be released today to the press at 2:30 P.M. You can read it for yourself right now.

The document is very big news, because it expresses profound pessimism about the ability of the government of Nouri al-Maliki to overcome sectarian differences in the country, suggesting that things are going to get "more precarious" in Iraq in coming months.

The question of whether the Maliki government will be unable to stop things from deteriorating further on the political front will be central to the showdown between the White House and Congress next month over what to do next in Iraq. Senators Carl Levin and Hillary Clinton have already called for Maliki to go.

The news about the NIE was first broken this morning by the New York Times, which cited in its report sources who were familiar with the document.

But we now have obtained a copy of the actual document itself, and you can read key excerpts of it in our TPM Document Collection.

"The Maliki government is implementing plans to expand the Iraqi Army and to increase its overall personnel strength to address critical gaps, but we judge that significant security gains from those programs will take at least six to 12 months, and probably longer, to materialize," says the document, which represents the assessment of government intelligence agencies.

"The IC assesses that the Iraqi Government will become more precarious over the next six to 12 months because of criticism by other members of the major Shia coalition (the Unified Iraqi Alliance, UIA), Grand Ayatollah Sistani, and other Sunni and Kurdish parties. Divisions between Maliki and the Sadrists have increased, and Shia factions have explored alternative coalitions aimed at constraining Maliki."

It continues: "The strains of the security situation and absence of key leaders have stalled internal political debates, slowed national decisionmaking, and increased Maliki’s vulnerability to alternative coalitions."

The document does say that the U.S. military has made some progress in the country on the military front.

"There have been measurable but uneven improvements in Iraq’s security situation since our last National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq in January 2007," it says.

"The steep escalation of rates of violence has been checked for now, and overall attack levels across Iraq have fallen during seven of the last nine weeks," it continues. "Coalition forces, working with Iraqi forces, tribal elements, and some Sunni insurgents, have reduced al-Qa’ida in Iraq’s (AQI) capabilities, restricted its freedom of movement, and denied it grassroots support in some areas."

But that assessment is tempered with a dire description of the current situation.

"However, the level of overall violence, including attacks on and casualties among civilians, remains high; Iraq’s sectarian groups remain unreconciled; AQI retains the ability to conduct high-profile attacks; and to date, Iraqi political leaders remain unable to govern effectively," the report says.

Still, the part of the document that is likely to land like a bomb in the middle of the Iraq debate is the bleak assessment of Maliki's chances going forward, because it suggests that the Iraqi government is going to fall short of meeting milestones as the so-called "Washington clock" runs out on Iraq.

Read the document itself here.

More soon.

Here's an interesting number buried in a new poll of Iowa voters by the GOP firm Strategic Vision:

4. Do you favor a withdrawal of all United States military from Iraq within the next six months? (Republicans Only)

Yes 51%

No 39%

Undecided 10%

Yep -- a majority of Iowa Republicans wants all the troops out of Iraq in six months.

Perhaps this partly explains why the most visible pro-war Repubican -- John McCain -- is in fourth place in the state. The poll finds that Mitt Romney is leading the GOP pack with 31%, with Fred Thompson in second (15%), Rudy Giuliani in third (13%) and McCain with a paltry eight percent.

On the Democratic side, meanwhile, John Edwards leads in Iowa witn 23%, Barack Obama has 22%, Hillary is in third with 21% and Richardson has 14%.

Polling released this morning by SurveyUSA shows Hillary Clinton with strong general election leads in Iowa and Minnesota, and some close results in Wisconsin. Iowa was narrowly carried by President Bush in 2004, while Minnesota and Wisconsin went for John Kerry by close margins. The polls were conducted from August 10-12.

Iowa: Clinton (D) 52%, Giuliani (R) 40% Clinton (D) 53%, Thompson (R) 40% Clinton (D) 51%, Romney (R) 42%

Minnesota:
Clinton (D) 47%, Giuliani (R) 44%
Clinton (D) 50%, Thompson (R) 41%
Clinton (D) 52%, Romney (R) 36%

Wisconsin:
Clinton (D) 46%, Giuliani (R) 46%
Clinton (D) 48%, Thompson (R) 45%
Clinton (D) 49%, Romney (R) 42%

These results — like the poll we posted of Pennsylvania earlier — would definitely seem to undermine the conventional pundit wisdom that Hillary may be unelectable. Also, the result in Iowa is very interesting in that they switched from Gore in 2000 to Bush in 2004. It now appears that they're swinging back to the Democrats in a big way.

A new Quinnipiac poll finds Hillary Clinton with a huge lead in Pennsylvania. Hillary has 42% of the Democratic primary vote, with non-candidate Al Gore and Barack Obama statistically tied for distant second at 13% and 12%, respectively. John Edwards has 8% support.

More key finding: Of all the Dems, it's John Edwards who has the largest lead over GOPers Mitt Romney and John McCain in general election roundups. But Hillary also beats them by large margins. And Hillary is the only Dem who beats the GOP frontrunner, Rudy Giuliani, in the state -- casting doubts on the argument by pundits that she may be "unelectable." Unlike Hillary, both Obama and Edwards lose to Rudy:

Clinton (D) 46%, Giuliani (R) 44% Giuliani (R) 45%, Obama (D) 40% Giuliani (R) 45%, Edwards (D) 43% Clinton (D) 47%, McCain (R) 41% Obama (D) 43%, McCain (R) 40% Edwards (D) 46%, McCain (R) 38% Clinton (D) 50% Thompson (R) 36% Obama (D) 46%, Thompson (R) 34% Edwards (D) 51%, Thompson (R) 32% Clinton (D) 50%, Romney (R) 35% Obama (D) 46%, Romney (R) 31% Edwards (D) 53%, Romney (R) 29%

In the Republican primary, Rudy Giuliani is way ahead with 31%, followed by John McCain at 13%, Newt Gingrich with 9%, and Mitt Romney at 7%.

John Edwards Attacks "Corporate Democrats"
In a speech prepared for this morning, John Edwards takes aim at Hillary Clinton with some of his most heated rhetoric yet. "The trouble with nostalgia," his prepared text reads, a reference to to the Clinton years, "is that you tend to remember what you liked and forget what you didn't. It's not just that the answers of the past aren't up to the job today, it's that the system that produced them was corrupt — and still is." Edwards will also go even further and say that voters should not simply replace "a group of corporate Republicans with a group of corporate Democrats, just swapping the Washington insiders of one party for the Washington insiders of the other."

Jim Webb Going To New Hampshire In October
Senator Jim Webb (D-VA) will be keynoting the New Hampshire Democratic Party's Jefferson-Jackson Dinner, which is being held this October 20. Expect the speech to be widely viewed and analyzed as something of an audition for the vice presidential slot on the national ticket.

Washington Post Highlights Romney's Dual Positions On Abortion
An article this morning in the Washington Post finds that Mitt Romney has been supporting two different positions on the ultimate legal status of abortion. Romney told a Nevada television station on Tuesday that Roe v. Wade should be overturned in order to "let states make their own decision in this regard" — in other words, a liberal state like New York could have liberal abortion laws while a place like South Carolina could generally outlaw it. On the other hand, in the August 6 ABC Republican debate, Romney endorsed the Human Life Amendment, which would outlaw abortion throughout the country by conferring 14th Amendment personhood upon embryos. A Romney advisor on pro-life issues said this is not a contradiction — one could favor reversal of Roe first, followed by passage of the HLA at a later date.

McConnell To Raise Money For Fletcher
U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is set to do a fundraiser this coming Tuesday for incumbent Governor Ernie Fletcher, despite McConnell's organization having backed former Congresswoman Anne Northup's unsuccessful primary challenge against Fletcher. Also in attendance will be 1995 gubernatorial nominee Larry Forgy, a Fletcher ally who is considering a primary challenge against McConnell next year.

Richardson Courts Nevada Union
Emphasizing his Western roots and his pro-gun credentials, Bill Richardson spoke at the Nevada AFL-CIO convention Wednesday to seek their endorsement. "We've got to get somebody who is electable," he told the crowd. "Not somebody who can just win on the East Coast and far West Coast, but somebody who is strong and has the values of working men and women." Proclaiming his endorsement from the NRA, Richardson added "I'm telling you because when I say it everywhere else, I get booed."

Obama Holds Fundraiser In Brooklyn
Barack Obama delivered a 40-minute speech to a rowdy crowd of small donors yesterday in Brooklyn, right in Hillary Clinton's adopted home state, drawing cheers and applause. Held at the Brooklyn Marriott, tickets were only $25 and $15 for students, making for a larger, younger, and rowdier crowd than usual. Obama is a former New Yorker, albeit a brief one, having graduated from Columbia University in 1983.

MTV And MySpace Hosting Chat Forum
This Fall, MTV and MySpace will be experimenting with a new format of presidential forum, based around instant messaging. During the hour-long events, each one hosting a single candidate, people will be able to IM or text-message the forum, and moderators will pick questions coming in and submit them to the candidates, who will answer them live on MTV as well an online webcast. The first one is set for September 27, featuring John Edwards. The format does have some novel potential — for example, a gaffe might cause a viewer to LOL, or perhaps ROTF.

Hillary: Maliki Should Go. Bush: Maliki Should Stay
Hillary Clinton called today for the ouster of Iraq Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, echoing a similar pronouncement two days ago by Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin (D-MI). "The Iraqi government’s failures have reinforced the widely held view that the Maliki government is nonfunctional and cannot produce a political settlement, because it is too beholden to religious and sectarian leaders," Clinton said in a statement given to CNN. President Bush, however, voiced his support for Maliki today and said, "it's not up to the politicians in Washington, D.C., to say whether he will remain in his position. It is up to the Iraqi people who now live in a democracy and not a dictatorship."

Novak: Hastert Will Resign
Bob Novak reports in his latest column that former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL) will not only retire from the House, but is also planning to resign some time this Fall. Novak speculates that Democratic Governor Rod Blagojevich might be able to schedule the general election to coincide with the state's presidential and Congressional primary on February 5. "If one party is seeing a more competitive presidential primary by that date, it could benefit from boosted turnout," Novak writes. "The presence of Illinois Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) on the primary ballot could help Democrats."

Primary Date Jockeying Continues
The Florida Democratic Party is standing firm on its plans to have the primary on January 29, ahead of the DNC's sanctioned date of February 5 and against DNC threats of stripping the state of delegates. "We're going to fight for all of our delegates," said state party chairwoman Karen Thurman, a former Congresswoman. "The disenfranchisement is on their hands." Meanwhile, the Michigan Senate voted today by a narrow margin to move their primary up even further, to January 15.

Clinton, Obama, And Edwards — Plus Hunter — To Visit New Orleans
Three Democratic frontrunners and one Republican presidential longshot will mark the second anniversary of Hurricane Katrina with a visit to New Orleans this weekend, participating in a forum at the University of New Orleans with Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu. Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards have been confirmed on the Dem side, while right-winger Duncan Hunter was just added to the schedule.

Is GOPer Schaffer Uncertain About Colorado Senate Race?
Former Congressman Bob Schaffer (R-CO) has been touted by the national Republicans as their candidate for the Senate seat being vacated by Republican Wayne Allard. However, Schaffer told a local newspaper regarding an environmental issue, "Next year, when and if I announce my Senate candidacy, it will be a more appropriate time to speak out on this important subject." Is Schaffer thinking of backing out, or is he simply doing the Fred Thompson act, playing the part of a reluctant candidate?

Native Americans Will Hold Presidential Forum — Barely Anyone Is Showing Up
The Morongo Band of Mission Indians reservation in Southern California is holding a presidential forum tomorrow. Only three candidates will be showing up: Bill Richardson, Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel. "If they won't come talk to us now, they certainly won't be responsive to us if they get in the White House," said Kalyn Free, an Oklahoma Choctaw who took the lead in organizing the "Prez on the Rez" forum.

A new round of SurveyUSA polls shows Hillary Clinton ahead of the top three Republican candidates in three states that President Bush won in 2004, though in some cases it's close. The polls were conducted from August 10-12.

Missouri:
Clinton 47%, Giuliani 46%
Clinton 48%, Thompson 46%
Clinton 49%, Romney 43%

New Mexico:
Clinton 49%, Giuliani 43%
Clinton 52%, Thompson 40%
Clinton 53%, Romney 38%

Ohio:
Clinton 48%, Giuliani 45%
Clinton 50%, Thompson 43%
Clinton 51%, Romney 40%

You might have heard about a Republican-backed initiative for the June 2008 California primary that if passed, just might prove the difference in 2008. The measure would award electors based on who carried the state's individual Congressional districts in each election, effectively giving the Republicans about 20 electoral votes in the Democratic stronghold. Now the Democrats are coming back with their own rival initiative for Electoral College reform.

The California Dems are getting ready to push a ballot measure in next year's June primary to award California's electoral votes to the national popular vote winner, provided that enough other states — adding up to the 270 electoral votes necessary to elect a president — join in a compact to do likewise. The Democrat-dominated legislature passed a bill to do just that last year, but it was vetoed by GOP Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. If such a national compact came about, the Electoral College system would be circumvented and effectively repealed.

This new initiative is clearly meant to provide a counter-measure to the Republican one, about which a new Field Poll shows plurality support, by a margin of 49% in favor to 42% opposed. Expect the Democrats to spend a lot of money on voter education efforts to stop this thing in its tracks.

Barack Obama released this statement, in response to President Bush's speech earlier today at the Veterans of Foreign Wars national convention:

"The disastrous consequences described by President Bush are already in motion and are a direct result of a war that should never have been authorized. There is no military solution to Iraq's problems. The only way to reverse these consequences is to change course through a surge in our diplomatic and humanitarian efforts in Iraq and the region, and a phased withdrawal of our forces that puts real pressure on the Iraqi government to act."

The new Gallup poll shows Hillary Clinton with a huge national lead for the Democratic nomination — indeed, it's almost a full majority. Hillary has 48%, Barack Obama 25%, John Edwards 13%, and no other candidate registers above two percent. With Al Gore added into the mix, Hillary is still way ahead: Clinton 42%, Obama 21%, Gore 15% and Edwards 11%. A third question narrows the choices down to just Hillary and Obama: Clinton 61%, Obama 34%.

From Gallup's analysis:

Gallup's early August survey was conducted shortly after a widely publicized foreign policy speech by Obama in which he made some statements about the United States' war on terrorism and relations with leaders of hostile countries, which drew a broad range of criticism from both sides of the political aisle. To the extent that firestorm was responsible for the increase in support for Clinton's candidacy noted at the time is unclear. Given the results of the new poll, one thing is clear, however: Clinton's surge was neither a fluke of sampling error, nor merely a fleeting reaction by voters to something on the campaign trail.

A new right-wing group called Freedom's Watch is rolling out a $15 million ad buy across the country. The group, which is backed financially by various big-money donors for President Bush's past campaigns, is advocating in favor of the Iraq War in what a conservative answer to MoveOn.

The ads feature disabled veterans or the family members of fallen troops, saying that the Iraq War and 9/11 are linked and urging us not to give up in Iraq — or in their words, "surrender." And another message runs very strong through the ads: That withdrawal from Iraq can/will result in another 9/11.

"They attacked us, and they will again. They won't stop in Iraq," one veteran declares, as the screen shows a shot of the smoking Twin Towers. "We are winning on the ground and making real progress. It's no time to quit — it's no time for politics."

The group's spokesman, none other than former White House press secretary Ari Fleischer, said the targeted Congressional districts include both Democratic and Republican incumbents, though he declined to specify which ones.

"There are many members who are trying to figure out which way to go, and we want them to know that there is still a sizable group of Americans who are committed to victory in Iraq," Fleischer told the New York Times.

Check out the ads after the jump.

Read more »

New polling from Rasmussen has Hillary Clinton beating Barack Obama in the South Carolina primary, with 38% for Hillary against 30% for Obama, with John Edwards at a distant third with 13%. Hillary and Obama are even among black voters, a demographic in which Obama needs a strong majority in order to win. Among whites, Hillary leads with Edwards in second, and Obama far behind.

On the Republican side, Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani are statistically tied, with Thompson at 23% and Rudy at 21%. John McCain is in third with 14%, and Mitt Romney is at fourth with 10%.

President Bush's approval might just be bouncing upwards ... to 28%, according to a new poll from American Research Group. His disapproval rating is now 65%, down six points from a month ago in ARG polling. However, this is due to not to any improvement with independents or even Republicans, but from a decline in Democratic disapproval, from a very intense 97% last month to 85% disapproval now. So in other words, this may be what is known in investment as a dead cat bounce, rather than any sort of fundamental improvement.

Rudy's Campaign Hits Back At Thompson
Rudy Giuliani's communications team has responded to Fred Thompson's attack on Giuliani's pro-gun control stances when he was mayor of New York City: "Those who live in New York in the real world - not on TV - know that Rudy Giuliani's record of making the city safe for families speaks for itself. No amount of political theater will change that."

Poll: Romney Way Ahead In Iowa
The new Zogby poll finds Mitt Romney with a huge advantage in the Iowa caucus. Romney leads with 33%, followed by Rudy Giuliani at 14%, Fred Thompson with 12%. Mike Huckabee is fourth with 8%, and John McCain in fifth place with 6% — technically a statistical tie.

Poll: Napolitano Would Beat McCain For Senate In 2010
A newly released Behavior Research Center poll finds that Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ) would defeat John McCain for his Senate seat in 2010, with Napolitano ahead 47%-36%. The poll was conducted from July 27 to August 4.

Polls: Hillary Doing Well In Three Southern States
A round of polling released yesterday by SurveyUSA shows Hillary Clinton coming on strong as a general election candidate in some pretty red Southern states. In Virginia, she beats Rudy Giuliani 49-46%, beats Fred Thompson 51%-42%, and tops Mitt Romney 53%-39%. In Kentucky, she beats Rudy 49%-44%, tops Thompson 51%-44%, and beats Romney 53%-41%. The closest thing to a bright Republican spot is Alabama, where Rudy wins 50%-44%, Thompson just barely wins at 49%-47%, and Hillary edges out Romney 48%-46%. The polls were conducted from August 10-12.

Tim Johnson To Make First Public Appearance Since Illness
Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD), who has been recovering from a brain hemmorhage suffered in December, will make his first public appearance on August 28th, speaking at an event entitled "Thank You, South Dakota." Tim Johnson's staff still will not confirm if he is running for re-election, but if he chooses to run he already has a significant war chest to tap into. Many of his colleagues helped fundraise for him during his recovery, especially Max Baucus from neighboring Montana, who is also up for re-election in 2008.

Edwards and Obama To Tour Rundown South Carolina Schools
"The Corridor of Shame," an area in South Carolina said to house some of the worst schools in America, will host two presidential candidates this year: Barack Obama and John Edwards. Obama will visit J.V. Martin Middle school on Thursday while Edwards will arrive in October. Edwards has released a detailed education plan that includes recruiting more teachers, funding programs to help struggling students, and creating "second chance" schools that take in former dropouts.

Democrat Easily Wins House Special Election In California
Democratic candidate Laura Richardson easily won the special election yesterday to replace the late Congresswoman Juanita Millender-McDonald, who died of cancer in April. Richardson won with roughly two thirds of the vote in the majority-minority district.