DNC Expected To Take A Hard Line Against Florida Today
The Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee is meeting today, and is expected to vote to strip Florida of some or even all delegates from their primary, as well as possibly impose penalties on candidates who campaign there, in response to the rogue state's unauthorized move of their primary date up to January 29. "You now see the end of a system that we've been living with since the 1970s," said Gore 2000 campaign manager Donna Brazile, a member of the rules committee. "It fell apart in the last cycle, but we kept it together with very interesting glue and duct tape. Unfortunately, this is really out of control."

Iowa Considering Legislation For A January Caucus
Iowa legislative leaders are discussing with Governor Chet Culver (D) the idea of passing legislation to require the state's caucus remain in January of 2008, and not shift ahead into December 2007. One possible solution is to have less time than the traditional one-week gap after the caucus and before the New Hampshire primary, which is currently expected to be held on January 8.

2007 Nominating Contests Could Open Up A Whole New Fundraising Opportunity
The Associated Press reports that a wrinkle in federal law could give presidential candidates a whole new opportunity to raise money if the Iowa caucus were to actually move into 2007. Federal law states, "All elections held in any calendar year for the office of the president of the United States (except for the general election for such office) shall be considered to be one election." In other words, a December 2007 caucus could give the campaigns an opportunity to squeeze yet another $2,300 out of wealthy donors, in addition to the $2,300 they could already raise for the primary season.

Rudy To Pitch Lower Taxes — Flanked By Former Mass. Governor Cellucci
Rudy Giuliani is pitching a tax plan today in New Hampshire, consisting of not only making the Bush tax cuts permanent but leaving the door open to cutting rates even further. On hand with Rudy will be former Massachusetts Governor Paul Cellucci, who criticized Mitt Romney's record to David Brody. "The difference is that Rudy Giuliani has done it and Mitt Romney has not," Cellucci said. "He was Governor for four years ... Mitt has not cut any taxes as Governor of Massachusetts."

NYT: Rudy Exaggerates Tax Record
Rudy Giuliani has been boasting on the campaign trail that he inherited a multi-billion dollar budget gap when he came into office as mayor of New York City, and created a multi-billion dollar surplus. In fact, the New York Times reports, Giuliani briefly created a surplus during the 1990's economic boom, but by the time he left office he was leaving behind a larger deficit than the one he'd inherited. "And that deficit would have been large even if the city had not been attacked on Sept. 11, 2001," the paper reports.

Former Basketball Coach Versace Considering Democratic Run For Congress
Former Indiana Pacers coach Dick Versace, age 67, is considering a run for the Congressional seat of Ray LaHood (R-IL), who is retiring in 2008 after seven terms. Versace would run as a Democrat in the heavily Republican 18th District, which President Bush won by 16 points in 2004. "When I take on a challenge, I go after it, and I've got a winning track record," Versace said.

Republicans Looking At Renzi's Open Seat
Potential Republican candidates are lining up for the open seat of Congressman Rick Renzi (R-AZ), who announced his retirement this week after being dogged by ethics scandals. Arizona's First Congressional District is a diverse place, set up by redistricting in 2001 to be a swing seat. The population includes Mormons, Native Americans, farmers, miners, environmentalists, retirees, and others. Potential candidates include 2002 primary candidate Sydney hay, former state Senate President Ken Bennett, rancher Steve Pierce, state Senator Tom O'Halleran, state Representative Bill Konopnicki, and Arizona Corporation Commission chair Kristin Mayers.

Edwards: "Lincoln Bedroom" Line Was Not An Attack On Hillary
John Edwards said today that a line from his speech yesterday, in which he declared that "the Lincoln Bedroom is not for rent," was not an attack on Hillary Clinton. "Nothing I said yesterday has anything to do with other presidential candidates," Edwards said. "They need to move off of thinking about themselves and think about what's important for the country, which is what I'm focused on." Also, he was not saying "Boo," he was saying "Boo-urns."

Chris Dodd Blasts Hillary, Calls Her Terrorism Remarks "Tasteless"
Chris Dodd released a statement lambasting Hillary Clinton for saying that a potential terrorist attack would give the Republicans a political advatange, and she was the best candidate to deal with that. "Frankly, I find it tasteless to discuss political implications when talking about a potential terrorist attack on the United States," Dodd said. A Hillary spokesman offered this clarification: "Sen. Clinton was making clear that she has the strength and experience to keep the country safe."

Edwards Camp: Hillary's Terror Remarks "Deeply Troubling"
John Edwards spokesman Chris Kofinis also blasted Hillary: "Senator Clinton’s remarks are deeply troubling. After nearly seven years of George Bush and the politics of fear, the American people deserve a President who will focus first on keeping America safe, rather than calculating the political consequences. Unfortunately, Senator Clinton is seemingly taking a page straight from the GOP playbook that got us into this mess — using fear of another terror attack as a political tactic to bolster her candidacy, and that is just wrong."

Richardson: Hillary "Seems To Think" Bush Has Made Us Safer
Bill Richardson had a statement, as well. "We shouldn't be thinking about terrorism in terms of its domestic political consequences, we should be protecting the country from terrorists," said Richardson. "Senator Clinton seems to think that President Bush has made this country safer. I disagree with her. Our failed policy in Iraq is making us less safe."

Obama Camp: Hillary Obsessed With Republican Attack Machine
Barack Obama advisor David Axelrod said that Hillary Clinton has been obsessed "with what she calls the Republican attack machine." Instead, Axelrod said, "I think we need a candidate who is obsessed with unifying this country again."

Brzezinski Endorses Obama
Zbigniew Brzezinski, who served as national security advisor in the Carter Administration, has endorsed Barack Obama. "He has a sense of what is historically relevant, and what is needed from the United States in relationship to the world," said Brzezinski, who also took a shot at Hillary Clinton's claim of being experienced enough, saying that "Being a former first lady doesn't prepare you to be president;" and, "I don't think the country needs to go back to what we had eight years ago."

Doolittle Loses Key Backer
Ken Campbell, a California Republican activists and longtime financial backer of scandal-plagued Congressman John Doolittle (R-CA), now says he is dropping his support for the Congressman. Interestingly enough, Campbell cited Doolittle's votes on earmarks, not the corruption investigations against the Congressman, as his reason for backing away from him. "I think when this conservative district sees how John spends their money, I think John doesn't have a chance," Campbell said. Doolittle currently faces two primary challengers: Iraq veteran and pro-war activist Eric Egland, and former Auburn Mayor Mike Holmes.

Moderate GOP Group Endorses Jeb Bradley
The Republican Main Street Partnership, a moderate GOP group that is heavily involved in intramural fights with conservatives in New Hampshire, is endorsing the comeback bid of former Congressman Jeb Bradley, who was defeated last year in an upset. Interestingly enough, the current chairman of the RMSP is Charlie Bass, a former Congressman who was also defeated with Bradley in last year's Democratic wave. Bradley faces a primary against former state Health and Human Services Commissioner John Stephen, whom he previously defeated in the 2002 primary for a then-open seat.

A group of top Michigan Democrats, including both U.S. Senators and four out of six House members, have written a joint letter to Dem Governor Jennifer Granholm, state Democratic chairman Mark Brewer and state Republican chairman Saul Anuzis, making the case for their effort to have Michigan's primary held early, on January 15.

"We support efforts to make the overall Presidential nominating process more reflective of the diversity of this country, and strongly believe that manufacturing issues need to be part of the Presidential candidate dialogue," the letter says — a clear contrast with Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, the thinly populated states that are currently allowed to go in January. "Embracing an early, inclusive contest would ensure that those issues are raised and our Michigan viewpoints are heard. An early, inclusive primary election is the best way to ensure the issues of trade, health care, and manufacturing are in the national limelight."

The letter has been released ahead of tomorrow's meeting of the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee, which is expected to vote for strong sanctions against Florida's planned January 29 primary. And if Florida is to be punished for a January 29 primary — potentially through having a significant number of delegates taken away from their allotment — then you can bet that stiff penalties are planned if Michigan goes ahead with January 15.

The Republican-controlled Michigan state Senate has already passed a bill to schedule the primary on the early date, and the bill now awaits approval by the Democratically-controlled House, plus Granholm's signature. Be on the lookout for national Democrats to lean on Granholm to veto the bill if it reaches her desk.

Read the full letter after the jump.

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Geoffrey Fieger, a prominent attorney who was the Democrats' nominee in an unsuccessful bid for governor of Michigan in 1998 against incumbent John Engler, was indicted today for conspiracy to make illegal campaign contributions to John Edwards in 2004.

Prosecutors claim that Fieger attempted to illegally donate over $125,000 to Edwards' campaign, about 60 times more than the legal limit for personal contributions to a primary campaign, by falsely reporting it as a bundle of donations from separate individuals.

According to the U.S. Attorney's office, John Edwards' campaign had no knowledge of or involvement in the alleged conspiracy and cooperated fully with investigators, so the indictment is Fieger's problem alone.

Geoffrey Fieger is also widely known for representing Dr. Jack Kevorkian in court, the physician who promoted assistant suicide and went to prison for having personally killed terminally ill patients.

Here's an interesting item in today's New York Post, quoting Hillary Clinton:

"It's a horrible prospect to ask yourself, 'What if? What if?' But if certain things happen between now and the election, particularly with respect to terrorism, that will automatically give the Republicans an advantage again, no matter how badly they have mishandled it, no matter how much more dangerous they have made the world," Clinton told supporters in Concord.

"So I think I'm the best of the Democrats to deal with that," she added.

The Post puts this in the context of a hypothetical terrorist attack, saying that Hillary believes such an incident would boost the GOP out of hand.

So is Hillary's assumption — that a new terror attack after years of Republican rule would in fact help the GOP — actually correct? What would happen if the worst came to pass?

Yesterday's Pew poll gives an interesting perspective on the question of Hillary Clinton's electability. It turns out that her favorable rating among all voters is in statistically identical to Rudy Giuliani's — in fact, it's nominally one point higher. Hillary gets a 55% approval rating, with 21 points of that very favorable, compared to Rudy's 54% favorable, with only 12% very favorable. Not bad for a woman who's been through multiple national campaigns worth of dirt, to be just as liked, and more intensely liked, as "America's Mayor."

On the other hand, Hillary's reputation for being a polarizing figure also has a lot of evidence to back it up. Hillary's unfavorables are at 39%, with 21 points very unfavorable, compared to Rudy's much better 28%, with nine points very unfavorable. Hillary has the highest favorables among all the presidential candidates, while she also has the highest unfavorables. But there's one thing America's Mayor has over Hillary: He hasn't been through the ringer like she has.

So does this matter? If 39% of the people hate Hillary, that just means that after years of getting to know her, a strong minority don't intend to vote her — and a majority are within her grasp. What's new?

As for Rudy, what might his ratings look like once his dirty laundry has been aired before a wider audience — for example, his false claim to have spent as much time at the World Trade Center site as the rescue workers? As it is, he's only about as popular as ... Hillary Clinton.

Romney To Offer Health Plan — Starkly Different From Massachusetts Plan
Mitt Romney will give a speech at noon today laying out his health plan, which will be quite different from the Massachusetts Health Reform Law he signed when he was governor. His plan will reportedly include one aspect of the Massachusetts plan, redirecting public money currently spent on emergency room care and instead using it to get low-income people insured. But the plan will not require that people have insurance, as the Massachusetts plan does, and will include conservative pet issues like tax breaks and limits on punitive damages in malpractice cases.

Fox Poll: Hillary And Rudy Continue To Lead Nationally — Edwards Below Ten
The new Fox News poll shows Hillary Clinton ahead nationally with 35% support among Democrats, followed by Barack Obama at 23%, non-candidate Al Gore at 10%, and John Edwards with 6%. The numbers without Gore included: Clinton 38%, Obama 25%, Edward 8%. On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani has 29%, Fred Thompson 14%, Mitt Romney 11%, and John McCain 7%.

Arnold Dubious On California Electoral Vote Plan
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA) gave a chilly reception to a Republican-backed voter initiative for 2008 that would award the state's electoral votes based on who carries the individual House districts — a proposal that would give the Republican nominee around 20 votes. "In principle, I don't like to change the rules in the middle of the game," Schwarzenegger. On the other hand, Schwarzenegger said he hasn't look at the proposal in depth and is not taking a definite position — so he could be keeping his options open.

Obama: Debate Over Maliki Is A Distraction
In an interview with CNN yesterday, Barack Obama said that Hillary Clinton's call for the ouster of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is a distraction from the real issues. "We can replace Maliki with four, five other guys, but if the underlying political dynamic is not changing, then we will not see progress in Iraq," Obama said. Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin had previously called for a vote of no confidence in Maliki, while the White House is standing firm in their support of him.

Jerry Brown Eyeing 2010 California Gubernatorial Race
California Attorney General Jerry Brown told the Sacramento Bee that he is considering a run for governor in 2010, when he will be 72 years old. "I've certainly talked about it. But I've thought about it, and I've decided I'm not going to think about it in any serious way certainly for the next year," Brown said. Brown is a well-known brand in state politics, having already served two terms as governor in the late 1970's and early 1980's, mounting three bids for president in 1976, 1980 and 1992, an unsuccessful Senate campaign in 1982, and a recent successful tenure as mayor of Oakland.

Bob Kerrey Laying Groundwork For Nebraska Senate Comeback
Former Senator Bob Kerrey (D-NE), currently serving as head of the New School, has informed the trustees in a conference call that he might be going back to Nebraska and running for Senate if two-term Republican Chuck Hagel retires. "I am more and more certain Chuck is not going to seek re-election, and my intention is to make my decision before he makes an announcement," Kerrey told the Lincoln Journal Star. Kerrey has previously said that if Hagel does in fact seek re-election then he would not only not run, he would write his friend and former co-Senator a check. But if Hagel does leave, then expect this race to be a huge pickup opportunity for the Democrats.

Obama To Skip Iowa AARP Forum
Barack Obama will be skipping an AARP forum in Iowa on September 20, in accordance with his campaign's decision to not attend any more forums in 2007 except for those already confirmed. The forum, held in Davenport, will be broadcast live on PBS and feature three candidates to have confirmed thus far: Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and Bill Richardson.

Rudy Hires The "Harold, Call Me" Media Firm
Rudy Giuliani's campaign has hired the Dallas-based media firm Scott Howell & Company — the same firm that produced the infamous "Harold, Call Me" ad in the 2006 Tennessee Senate race. The ad, in case you don't remember, featured a bare-shouldered blonde white woman saying she met black Democratic nominee Harold Ford at a Playboy party, and the ad ended with her saying, "Harold, call me."

Michigan Senate Dem Leader Declares Against GOP Congressman Walberg
In Michigan, Democratic state Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer has announced that he will challenge freshman Republican Congressman Tim Walberg next year. Running in a traditionally Republican district, Walberg was only narrowly elected in 2006 over a token Democratic opponent after he'd defeated moderate incumbent Congressman Joe Schwarz in the GOP primary. "He's really been a servant of the Bush-Cheney administration and the extreme special interests in Washington," Schauer told the Associated Press.

Florida Dems Threaten Lawsuit Against National Committee
Five Florida Democrats — Senator Bill Nelson and Representatives Alcee Hastings, Kendrick Meek, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, and Kathy Castor — have written a letter to the Democratic National Committee in which they threaten a lawsuit if the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee votes this weekend to impose sanctions against the rogue state's planned January 29 primary, ahead of the national parties' officially blessed date of February 5. "If true — and, if the DNC strips Florida of all or some of its delegates to the national convention — we would ask the appropriate legal officials to determine whether this could violate any state or federal laws governing and protecting individual voting rights," they wrote.

Democratic National Committee To Meet To Sort Out Primary Mess
Amid the chaos of the developing primary/caucus calendar, Iowa Governor Chet Culver (D) is vowing that his caucus will remain the first contest in the nation — and urging sanctions against states like Florida and Michigan. "I think there need to be consequences for those states that don't abide by the party rules," said Culver. "And historically, that has always helped us set the calendar. Without rules, it would be impossible to ever settle on a calendar."

Republicans Seek To Counter Liberal Online Fundraising Success With "Rightroots"
Aware that they're getting badly outpaced by liberal online fundraising successes, Republicans are trying to redress the balance with a new organization called "Rightroots." The organization "was established to counter the political left's strength in online fundraising as manifested by ActBlue, a well-designed and influential site that helps Democratic candidates and their supporters raise campaign funds online," CQ Politics reports. "Rightroots' organizers see the site as a convenient 'one-stop shop' for Republican users who might have trouble finding the Web sites of individual GOP candidates."

Fox News/Black Caucus Debate Cancelled
The proposed Fox News/Congressional Black Caucus Institute debate for September 23 has been postponed indefinitely — in all likelihood cancelled. The frontrunners had all indicated they would not be participating in a Fox News debate, and only three candidates had accepted: Joe Biden, Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel. It's too bad — a full-length debate with those three sure would have been fun to watch.

Mitt Romney will be giving a speech tomorrow in which he is expected to put forward a detailed plan on health care, emphasizing free markets.

In the process, Romney will point to his successful passage of the Massachusetts Health Reform Law -- something which Romney likes to tout as proof of his conservatism.

But Romney's efforts to showcase that achievement could be complicated by new video from 2006 -- which we've obtained from a rival campaign -- in which he gushes with praise for Ted Kennedy's contribution to the bill.

Romney has been using this health care law to show that he was a tough conservative reining in liberal excess in Massachusetts -- a broader theme that he's been sounding on multiple issues. He has sought to present himself as having worked hard to ensure that his state's health care reform law was a conservative one — and has even joked to conservative audiences about how nervous he was regarding Ted Kennedy's involvement.

On January 27 of this year, Romney told the National Review Institute Conservative Summit, "I don't know what' going to happen with it down the road, as the Democrats get their hands with it. But I know we have to fight for solutions. By the way, I was a little concerned at the signing statement when Ted Kennedy showed up."

But at the bill signing on April 26, 2006, none of that concern seemed apparent -- indeed, Romney gushed about Kennedy's contribution to the bill and described Kennedy as his "collaborator and friend." According to the video of the bill signing which we've obtained, Romney said:

"Senator Kennedy: Together, we pitched the secretaries on our vision to insure all our citizens, and on the need for federal support to make the vision real. His work in Washington and behind the scenes on Beacon Hill was absolutely essential."

"It's now my pleasure to introduce my collaborator and friend, Senator Edward Kennedy," Romney concluded. As Ted Kennedy took the stage to massive applause — including some from Romney — the two shook hands. Take a look at our video:

Asked for a reply, Romney spokesperson Kevin Madden said that Romney's expressions of worry about Kennedy were meant to be humorous. Madden's statement:

My advice to rival campaigns is this: make sure you hire at least a few research staffers with a sense of humor before you send around video clips. That way they can spot humor that is obvious to everyone else but them.

Governor Romney has frequently made the humorous observation on the bipartisan health care plan achievement by saying that if he and Ted Kennedy can agree on a bill, then one of them probably didn’t read it. Well, in this case, Governor Romney wrote the bill.

On a serious side, the agreement introduced important free-market principles to achieve more affordable health care coverage for the state’s residents. This was achieved by securing more regulatory flexibility so that federal dollars can be used to cover more residents with private health insurance. The governor worked with state and federal officials to get that done.

GOP Senator John Warner of Virginia gave a press conference today that is getting lots of attention from major news organizations, including Reuters and CNN.

The "news" at this press conference is that Warner spoke out in favor of withdrawal from Iraq. Warner calls for withdrawal!

But what did Warner actually say, and what might he actually do to make sure his new policy aims come to pass?

Warner today:

"I can of think no clearer form of that than if the president were to announce on the 15th that in consultation with our senior military commanders, he's decided to initiate the first step in a withdrawal of our forces. I say to the president, pick whatever number you wish. You do not want to lose the momentum. But in 160,000-plus, certainly 5,000 could begin to redeploy and be home to their families and loved ones no later than Christmas of this year. That's the first step. Let the president establish the timetable of withdrawal, not the Congress."

5,000 troops? This is speaking out in favor of withdrawal?

Warner said the surge has produced momentum in our favor and added that Bush should start talking about withdrawal — but that Bush should "pick whatever number you wish." And finally, Warner rejected any Congressional action to actually force any kind of enactment of the policy he claims to support.

Pretty forceful stuff.

And another one drops, bringing the number of House GOPers who are retiring to five. And counting.

Muck-encrusted GOP Rep. Rick Renzi of Arizona won't seek reelection, he says in a statement to Roll Call (sub only):

“I will not be seeking re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2008. I am honored and thankful to serve Arizona’s first district and appreciate all that we have accomplished together over the past 6 years.”

Renzi's departure swells the list of GOP Reps. planning to step down at the end of the 110th Congress, a list that now includes Reps. Ray LaHood, Deborah Pryce, Chip Pickering, and former speaker Dennis Hastert.

Though Bush won the GOP leaning district by 54%-46% in 2004, the Dems are considered to have at least a decent shot at flipping it. Dem State Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick recently resigned and announced she'll make a bid for the seat, and at least two other Dems are talking about running.

Renzi's retirement, however, does allow the GOP to try to find a candidate for the district who isn't weighed down by his ethical baggage. Though he was able to survive a tough challenge last year, his political situation has worsened in the wake of an FBI raid of a business linked to his family, a raid that was part of a federal probe into his Congressional activities.

Check out our full coverage of Renzi over at TPMmuckraker.

As noted earlier, John Edwards gave a speech today in which he sharpened his attacks on what he called "corporate Democrats," cautioning against "swapping the Washington insiders of one party for the Washington insiders of the other."

Edwards' indictment of the corporate Dem establishment -- and his warning against "nostalgia" -- is meant to be taken as an attack on the Clintons, though it's certainly not limited to them and is intended as condemnation of a whole class of Beltway insiders.

The full text of the speech is now available, and it's worth a look. We have it after the jump.

The quick and not terribly profound thing I want to point out about this is that it's interesting to note that both Barack Obama and Edwards are using Hillary as a foil in similar but also different ways. Obama is pointing to her as a pillar of the failed Beltway foreign policy establishment that has brought us a failed foreign policy status quo. Meanwhile, Edwards is hitting her as representative of what he's labeling the corporate Dem establishment.

Both Obama and Edwards are trying to cast themselves as the race's real change agent on different fronts -- though there is some overlap -- with Hillary as the foil to both efforts, something that's probably inevitable in part because of her frontrunner status.

The speech is getting some rave reviews, with Matthew Yglesias calling it a very strong speech, and Marc Ambinder asking: "When was the last time a major presidential candidate delivered such a singularly populist speech?"

Meanwhile, Amanda Dobbins over at The Huffington Post accuses Edwards, in his reference to abuses of the Lincoln bedroom, of "channeling GOP politicians." And Taylor Marsh says that this attack is "straight out of the right-wing playbook."

Readers, we really want to hear from you on this one. What do you think of the speech?

It's after the jump.

Update: I wasn't clear enough here. The basic (and obvious) state of play is that both Obama and Edwards are making bids to be seen as the leading genuine progressive alternative to Hillary -- Obama on foreign policy, Edwards on economic issues, though there is some overlap. Stirling Newberry thinks that this speech cements Edwards' position as "the essentially progressive major candidate."

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Harry Reid weighs in with a statement on today's big news -- the National Intelligence Estimate finding that the prospects for political reconciliation in Iraq are bleak indeed:

“Today’s National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq confirms what most Americans already know: Our troops are mired in an Iraqi civil war and the President’s escalation strategy has failed to produce the political results he promised to our troops and the American people.

"Our troops have done everything asked of them and more. Unfortunately Iraq’s leaders have not. And as today’s NIE makes clear, a political solution is extremely unlikely in the near term. Further pursuit of the Administration’s flawed escalation strategy is not in our nation’s best interests.

"Every day that we continue to stick to the President’s flawed strategy is a day that America is not as secure as it could be. As the intelligence community reported in another NIE just weeks ago, America’s attention is distracted from Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda, which has regenerated its capacity to its pre-9/11 levels. That is why it is so essential that this September, Republicans join with Democrats to change course in Iraq and work to restore our nation’s security.”

Great Moments In Fox News ...

Fox News just did a news segment on the Republican-backed initiative in California to apportion the state's electoral votes according to who carries the individual House districts — which if passed would effectively give 20 free electoral votes to the Republicans, from straight out of the Dem column.

Fox's take is hilariously biased, even by the network's practically nonexistent ethical standards. The person brought on to speak in favor of it is described only as "pro-reform"...

...while the person who spoke against was described only as:

We are never told anything more about who these men are, who they work for, or what their partisan activities might be — all we're told is that the guy for this initiative is "pro-reform" and the man opposed to it is "anti-reform."

As it turns out, "pro-reform" Kevin Eckery is a Republican consultant and the spokesman for Californians for Equal Representation, the astro-turf group offering the initiative. And "anti-reform" Ari Swiller is a Democratic fundraiser.

Here's another key aspect of the NIE: In another indication of just how dire the political situation in Iraq is, the assessment judges that move most likely to bring a measure of reconciliation to Iraq would have the side effect of further inflaming Iran.

Notice that the NIE says that the best chance for sectarian reconciliation available is for Maliki to embrace the Sunni tribal fighters that he's reluctant to embrace. If he does, however, and the Sunni fighters grow stronger, that fuels the reasons for Iran's meddling:

Over the next year, Tehran, concerned about a Sunni reemergence in Baghdad and US efforts to limit Iranian influence, will continue to provide funding, weaponry and training to Iraqi Shia militants.

An NIE isn't a strategy paper, and it's not the intelligence community's job to tell policymakers what option to adopt. Still, it's surprising that what the NIE considers the most significant reconciliation move possible will, in all likelihood, lead to a deeper, and more malign, Iranian involvement in Iraq.

The National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq -- an advance copy of which we've obtained -- has some good-if-tentative things to say about the surge. For instance, it says that "the steep escalation of rates of violence has been checked for now," adding that al-Qaeda in Iraq has had its capabilities reduced somewhat.

But it also finds that the capabilities of Nouri al-Maliki to govern Iraq have also been badly reduced. The intelligence community writes:

The Iraqi Government will become more precarious over the next six to 12 months because of criticism by other members of the major Shia coalition (the Unified Iraqi Alliance, UIA), Grand Ayatollah Sistani, and other Sunni and Kurdish parties. Divisions between Maliki and the Sadrists have increased, and Shia factions have explored alternative coalitions aimed at constraining Maliki.

How bad is it for Maliki? Our full analysis after the jump.

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We've just obtained a copy of the new National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq that will be released today to the press at 2:30 P.M. You can read it for yourself right now.

The document is very big news, because it expresses profound pessimism about the ability of the government of Nouri al-Maliki to overcome sectarian differences in the country, suggesting that things are going to get "more precarious" in Iraq in coming months.

The question of whether the Maliki government will be unable to stop things from deteriorating further on the political front will be central to the showdown between the White House and Congress next month over what to do next in Iraq. Senators Carl Levin and Hillary Clinton have already called for Maliki to go.

The news about the NIE was first broken this morning by the New York Times, which cited in its report sources who were familiar with the document.

But we now have obtained a copy of the actual document itself, and you can read key excerpts of it in our TPM Document Collection.

"The Maliki government is implementing plans to expand the Iraqi Army and to increase its overall personnel strength to address critical gaps, but we judge that significant security gains from those programs will take at least six to 12 months, and probably longer, to materialize," says the document, which represents the assessment of government intelligence agencies.

"The IC assesses that the Iraqi Government will become more precarious over the next six to 12 months because of criticism by other members of the major Shia coalition (the Unified Iraqi Alliance, UIA), Grand Ayatollah Sistani, and other Sunni and Kurdish parties. Divisions between Maliki and the Sadrists have increased, and Shia factions have explored alternative coalitions aimed at constraining Maliki."

It continues: "The strains of the security situation and absence of key leaders have stalled internal political debates, slowed national decisionmaking, and increased Maliki’s vulnerability to alternative coalitions."

The document does say that the U.S. military has made some progress in the country on the military front.

"There have been measurable but uneven improvements in Iraq’s security situation since our last National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq in January 2007," it says.

"The steep escalation of rates of violence has been checked for now, and overall attack levels across Iraq have fallen during seven of the last nine weeks," it continues. "Coalition forces, working with Iraqi forces, tribal elements, and some Sunni insurgents, have reduced al-Qa’ida in Iraq’s (AQI) capabilities, restricted its freedom of movement, and denied it grassroots support in some areas."

But that assessment is tempered with a dire description of the current situation.

"However, the level of overall violence, including attacks on and casualties among civilians, remains high; Iraq’s sectarian groups remain unreconciled; AQI retains the ability to conduct high-profile attacks; and to date, Iraqi political leaders remain unable to govern effectively," the report says.

Still, the part of the document that is likely to land like a bomb in the middle of the Iraq debate is the bleak assessment of Maliki's chances going forward, because it suggests that the Iraqi government is going to fall short of meeting milestones as the so-called "Washington clock" runs out on Iraq.

Read the document itself here.

More soon.

Here's an interesting number buried in a new poll of Iowa voters by the GOP firm Strategic Vision:

4. Do you favor a withdrawal of all United States military from Iraq within the next six months? (Republicans Only)

Yes 51%

No 39%

Undecided 10%

Yep -- a majority of Iowa Republicans wants all the troops out of Iraq in six months.

Perhaps this partly explains why the most visible pro-war Repubican -- John McCain -- is in fourth place in the state. The poll finds that Mitt Romney is leading the GOP pack with 31%, with Fred Thompson in second (15%), Rudy Giuliani in third (13%) and McCain with a paltry eight percent.

On the Democratic side, meanwhile, John Edwards leads in Iowa witn 23%, Barack Obama has 22%, Hillary is in third with 21% and Richardson has 14%.

Polling released this morning by SurveyUSA shows Hillary Clinton with strong general election leads in Iowa and Minnesota, and some close results in Wisconsin. Iowa was narrowly carried by President Bush in 2004, while Minnesota and Wisconsin went for John Kerry by close margins. The polls were conducted from August 10-12.

Iowa: Clinton (D) 52%, Giuliani (R) 40% Clinton (D) 53%, Thompson (R) 40% Clinton (D) 51%, Romney (R) 42%

Minnesota:
Clinton (D) 47%, Giuliani (R) 44%
Clinton (D) 50%, Thompson (R) 41%
Clinton (D) 52%, Romney (R) 36%

Wisconsin:
Clinton (D) 46%, Giuliani (R) 46%
Clinton (D) 48%, Thompson (R) 45%
Clinton (D) 49%, Romney (R) 42%

These results — like the poll we posted of Pennsylvania earlier — would definitely seem to undermine the conventional pundit wisdom that Hillary may be unelectable. Also, the result in Iowa is very interesting in that they switched from Gore in 2000 to Bush in 2004. It now appears that they're swinging back to the Democrats in a big way.

A new Quinnipiac poll finds Hillary Clinton with a huge lead in Pennsylvania. Hillary has 42% of the Democratic primary vote, with non-candidate Al Gore and Barack Obama statistically tied for distant second at 13% and 12%, respectively. John Edwards has 8% support.

More key finding: Of all the Dems, it's John Edwards who has the largest lead over GOPers Mitt Romney and John McCain in general election roundups. But Hillary also beats them by large margins. And Hillary is the only Dem who beats the GOP frontrunner, Rudy Giuliani, in the state -- casting doubts on the argument by pundits that she may be "unelectable." Unlike Hillary, both Obama and Edwards lose to Rudy:

Clinton (D) 46%, Giuliani (R) 44% Giuliani (R) 45%, Obama (D) 40% Giuliani (R) 45%, Edwards (D) 43% Clinton (D) 47%, McCain (R) 41% Obama (D) 43%, McCain (R) 40% Edwards (D) 46%, McCain (R) 38% Clinton (D) 50% Thompson (R) 36% Obama (D) 46%, Thompson (R) 34% Edwards (D) 51%, Thompson (R) 32% Clinton (D) 50%, Romney (R) 35% Obama (D) 46%, Romney (R) 31% Edwards (D) 53%, Romney (R) 29%

In the Republican primary, Rudy Giuliani is way ahead with 31%, followed by John McCain at 13%, Newt Gingrich with 9%, and Mitt Romney at 7%.

John Edwards Attacks "Corporate Democrats"
In a speech prepared for this morning, John Edwards takes aim at Hillary Clinton with some of his most heated rhetoric yet. "The trouble with nostalgia," his prepared text reads, a reference to to the Clinton years, "is that you tend to remember what you liked and forget what you didn't. It's not just that the answers of the past aren't up to the job today, it's that the system that produced them was corrupt — and still is." Edwards will also go even further and say that voters should not simply replace "a group of corporate Republicans with a group of corporate Democrats, just swapping the Washington insiders of one party for the Washington insiders of the other."

Jim Webb Going To New Hampshire In October
Senator Jim Webb (D-VA) will be keynoting the New Hampshire Democratic Party's Jefferson-Jackson Dinner, which is being held this October 20. Expect the speech to be widely viewed and analyzed as something of an audition for the vice presidential slot on the national ticket.

Washington Post Highlights Romney's Dual Positions On Abortion
An article this morning in the Washington Post finds that Mitt Romney has been supporting two different positions on the ultimate legal status of abortion. Romney told a Nevada television station on Tuesday that Roe v. Wade should be overturned in order to "let states make their own decision in this regard" — in other words, a liberal state like New York could have liberal abortion laws while a place like South Carolina could generally outlaw it. On the other hand, in the August 6 ABC Republican debate, Romney endorsed the Human Life Amendment, which would outlaw abortion throughout the country by conferring 14th Amendment personhood upon embryos. A Romney advisor on pro-life issues said this is not a contradiction — one could favor reversal of Roe first, followed by passage of the HLA at a later date.

McConnell To Raise Money For Fletcher
U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is set to do a fundraiser this coming Tuesday for incumbent Governor Ernie Fletcher, despite McConnell's organization having backed former Congresswoman Anne Northup's unsuccessful primary challenge against Fletcher. Also in attendance will be 1995 gubernatorial nominee Larry Forgy, a Fletcher ally who is considering a primary challenge against McConnell next year.

Richardson Courts Nevada Union
Emphasizing his Western roots and his pro-gun credentials, Bill Richardson spoke at the Nevada AFL-CIO convention Wednesday to seek their endorsement. "We've got to get somebody who is electable," he told the crowd. "Not somebody who can just win on the East Coast and far West Coast, but somebody who is strong and has the values of working men and women." Proclaiming his endorsement from the NRA, Richardson added "I'm telling you because when I say it everywhere else, I get booed."

Obama Holds Fundraiser In Brooklyn
Barack Obama delivered a 40-minute speech to a rowdy crowd of small donors yesterday in Brooklyn, right in Hillary Clinton's adopted home state, drawing cheers and applause. Held at the Brooklyn Marriott, tickets were only $25 and $15 for students, making for a larger, younger, and rowdier crowd than usual. Obama is a former New Yorker, albeit a brief one, having graduated from Columbia University in 1983.

MTV And MySpace Hosting Chat Forum
This Fall, MTV and MySpace will be experimenting with a new format of presidential forum, based around instant messaging. During the hour-long events, each one hosting a single candidate, people will be able to IM or text-message the forum, and moderators will pick questions coming in and submit them to the candidates, who will answer them live on MTV as well an online webcast. The first one is set for September 27, featuring John Edwards. The format does have some novel potential — for example, a gaffe might cause a viewer to LOL, or perhaps ROTF.

Hillary: Maliki Should Go. Bush: Maliki Should Stay
Hillary Clinton called today for the ouster of Iraq Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, echoing a similar pronouncement two days ago by Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin (D-MI). "The Iraqi government’s failures have reinforced the widely held view that the Maliki government is nonfunctional and cannot produce a political settlement, because it is too beholden to religious and sectarian leaders," Clinton said in a statement given to CNN. President Bush, however, voiced his support for Maliki today and said, "it's not up to the politicians in Washington, D.C., to say whether he will remain in his position. It is up to the Iraqi people who now live in a democracy and not a dictatorship."

Novak: Hastert Will Resign
Bob Novak reports in his latest column that former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL) will not only retire from the House, but is also planning to resign some time this Fall. Novak speculates that Democratic Governor Rod Blagojevich might be able to schedule the general election to coincide with the state's presidential and Congressional primary on February 5. "If one party is seeing a more competitive presidential primary by that date, it could benefit from boosted turnout," Novak writes. "The presence of Illinois Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) on the primary ballot could help Democrats."

Primary Date Jockeying Continues
The Florida Democratic Party is standing firm on its plans to have the primary on January 29, ahead of the DNC's sanctioned date of February 5 and against DNC threats of stripping the state of delegates. "We're going to fight for all of our delegates," said state party chairwoman Karen Thurman, a former Congresswoman. "The disenfranchisement is on their hands." Meanwhile, the Michigan Senate voted today by a narrow margin to move their primary up even further, to January 15.

Clinton, Obama, And Edwards — Plus Hunter — To Visit New Orleans
Three Democratic frontrunners and one Republican presidential longshot will mark the second anniversary of Hurricane Katrina with a visit to New Orleans this weekend, participating in a forum at the University of New Orleans with Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu. Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards have been confirmed on the Dem side, while right-winger Duncan Hunter was just added to the schedule.

Is GOPer Schaffer Uncertain About Colorado Senate Race?
Former Congressman Bob Schaffer (R-CO) has been touted by the national Republicans as their candidate for the Senate seat being vacated by Republican Wayne Allard. However, Schaffer told a local newspaper regarding an environmental issue, "Next year, when and if I announce my Senate candidacy, it will be a more appropriate time to speak out on this important subject." Is Schaffer thinking of backing out, or is he simply doing the Fred Thompson act, playing the part of a reluctant candidate?

Native Americans Will Hold Presidential Forum — Barely Anyone Is Showing Up
The Morongo Band of Mission Indians reservation in Southern California is holding a presidential forum tomorrow. Only three candidates will be showing up: Bill Richardson, Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel. "If they won't come talk to us now, they certainly won't be responsive to us if they get in the White House," said Kalyn Free, an Oklahoma Choctaw who took the lead in organizing the "Prez on the Rez" forum.

A new round of SurveyUSA polls shows Hillary Clinton ahead of the top three Republican candidates in three states that President Bush won in 2004, though in some cases it's close. The polls were conducted from August 10-12.

Missouri:
Clinton 47%, Giuliani 46%
Clinton 48%, Thompson 46%
Clinton 49%, Romney 43%

New Mexico:
Clinton 49%, Giuliani 43%
Clinton 52%, Thompson 40%
Clinton 53%, Romney 38%

Ohio:
Clinton 48%, Giuliani 45%
Clinton 50%, Thompson 43%
Clinton 51%, Romney 40%

You might have heard about a Republican-backed initiative for the June 2008 California primary that if passed, just might prove the difference in 2008. The measure would award electors based on who carried the state's individual Congressional districts in each election, effectively giving the Republicans about 20 electoral votes in the Democratic stronghold. Now the Democrats are coming back with their own rival initiative for Electoral College reform.

The California Dems are getting ready to push a ballot measure in next year's June primary to award California's electoral votes to the national popular vote winner, provided that enough other states — adding up to the 270 electoral votes necessary to elect a president — join in a compact to do likewise. The Democrat-dominated legislature passed a bill to do just that last year, but it was vetoed by GOP Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. If such a national compact came about, the Electoral College system would be circumvented and effectively repealed.

This new initiative is clearly meant to provide a counter-measure to the Republican one, about which a new Field Poll shows plurality support, by a margin of 49% in favor to 42% opposed. Expect the Democrats to spend a lot of money on voter education efforts to stop this thing in its tracks.

Barack Obama released this statement, in response to President Bush's speech earlier today at the Veterans of Foreign Wars national convention:

"The disastrous consequences described by President Bush are already in motion and are a direct result of a war that should never have been authorized. There is no military solution to Iraq's problems. The only way to reverse these consequences is to change course through a surge in our diplomatic and humanitarian efforts in Iraq and the region, and a phased withdrawal of our forces that puts real pressure on the Iraqi government to act."

The new Gallup poll shows Hillary Clinton with a huge national lead for the Democratic nomination — indeed, it's almost a full majority. Hillary has 48%, Barack Obama 25%, John Edwards 13%, and no other candidate registers above two percent. With Al Gore added into the mix, Hillary is still way ahead: Clinton 42%, Obama 21%, Gore 15% and Edwards 11%. A third question narrows the choices down to just Hillary and Obama: Clinton 61%, Obama 34%.

From Gallup's analysis:

Gallup's early August survey was conducted shortly after a widely publicized foreign policy speech by Obama in which he made some statements about the United States' war on terrorism and relations with leaders of hostile countries, which drew a broad range of criticism from both sides of the political aisle. To the extent that firestorm was responsible for the increase in support for Clinton's candidacy noted at the time is unclear. Given the results of the new poll, one thing is clear, however: Clinton's surge was neither a fluke of sampling error, nor merely a fleeting reaction by voters to something on the campaign trail.

A new right-wing group called Freedom's Watch is rolling out a $15 million ad buy across the country. The group, which is backed financially by various big-money donors for President Bush's past campaigns, is advocating in favor of the Iraq War in what a conservative answer to MoveOn.

The ads feature disabled veterans or the family members of fallen troops, saying that the Iraq War and 9/11 are linked and urging us not to give up in Iraq — or in their words, "surrender." And another message runs very strong through the ads: That withdrawal from Iraq can/will result in another 9/11.

"They attacked us, and they will again. They won't stop in Iraq," one veteran declares, as the screen shows a shot of the smoking Twin Towers. "We are winning on the ground and making real progress. It's no time to quit — it's no time for politics."

The group's spokesman, none other than former White House press secretary Ari Fleischer, said the targeted Congressional districts include both Democratic and Republican incumbents, though he declined to specify which ones.

"There are many members who are trying to figure out which way to go, and we want them to know that there is still a sizable group of Americans who are committed to victory in Iraq," Fleischer told the New York Times.

Check out the ads after the jump.

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New polling from Rasmussen has Hillary Clinton beating Barack Obama in the South Carolina primary, with 38% for Hillary against 30% for Obama, with John Edwards at a distant third with 13%. Hillary and Obama are even among black voters, a demographic in which Obama needs a strong majority in order to win. Among whites, Hillary leads with Edwards in second, and Obama far behind.

On the Republican side, Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani are statistically tied, with Thompson at 23% and Rudy at 21%. John McCain is in third with 14%, and Mitt Romney is at fourth with 10%.

President Bush's approval might just be bouncing upwards ... to 28%, according to a new poll from American Research Group. His disapproval rating is now 65%, down six points from a month ago in ARG polling. However, this is due to not to any improvement with independents or even Republicans, but from a decline in Democratic disapproval, from a very intense 97% last month to 85% disapproval now. So in other words, this may be what is known in investment as a dead cat bounce, rather than any sort of fundamental improvement.

Rudy's Campaign Hits Back At Thompson
Rudy Giuliani's communications team has responded to Fred Thompson's attack on Giuliani's pro-gun control stances when he was mayor of New York City: "Those who live in New York in the real world - not on TV - know that Rudy Giuliani's record of making the city safe for families speaks for itself. No amount of political theater will change that."

Poll: Romney Way Ahead In Iowa
The new Zogby poll finds Mitt Romney with a huge advantage in the Iowa caucus. Romney leads with 33%, followed by Rudy Giuliani at 14%, Fred Thompson with 12%. Mike Huckabee is fourth with 8%, and John McCain in fifth place with 6% — technically a statistical tie.

Poll: Napolitano Would Beat McCain For Senate In 2010
A newly released Behavior Research Center poll finds that Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ) would defeat John McCain for his Senate seat in 2010, with Napolitano ahead 47%-36%. The poll was conducted from July 27 to August 4.

Polls: Hillary Doing Well In Three Southern States
A round of polling released yesterday by SurveyUSA shows Hillary Clinton coming on strong as a general election candidate in some pretty red Southern states. In Virginia, she beats Rudy Giuliani 49-46%, beats Fred Thompson 51%-42%, and tops Mitt Romney 53%-39%. In Kentucky, she beats Rudy 49%-44%, tops Thompson 51%-44%, and beats Romney 53%-41%. The closest thing to a bright Republican spot is Alabama, where Rudy wins 50%-44%, Thompson just barely wins at 49%-47%, and Hillary edges out Romney 48%-46%. The polls were conducted from August 10-12.

Tim Johnson To Make First Public Appearance Since Illness
Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD), who has been recovering from a brain hemmorhage suffered in December, will make his first public appearance on August 28th, speaking at an event entitled "Thank You, South Dakota." Tim Johnson's staff still will not confirm if he is running for re-election, but if he chooses to run he already has a significant war chest to tap into. Many of his colleagues helped fundraise for him during his recovery, especially Max Baucus from neighboring Montana, who is also up for re-election in 2008.

Edwards and Obama To Tour Rundown South Carolina Schools
"The Corridor of Shame," an area in South Carolina said to house some of the worst schools in America, will host two presidential candidates this year: Barack Obama and John Edwards. Obama will visit J.V. Martin Middle school on Thursday while Edwards will arrive in October. Edwards has released a detailed education plan that includes recruiting more teachers, funding programs to help struggling students, and creating "second chance" schools that take in former dropouts.

Democrat Easily Wins House Special Election In California
Democratic candidate Laura Richardson easily won the special election yesterday to replace the late Congresswoman Juanita Millender-McDonald, who died of cancer in April. Richardson won with roughly two thirds of the vote in the majority-minority district.

Edwards Hits Hillary For Saying Surge Is "Working" — But Did She Say That?
The Edwards campaign has just fired off a statement faulting Hillary for saying that the surge is "working" during her Veterans of Foreign Affairs speech yesterday. "You cannot be for the President's strategy in Iraq but against the war," the statement says. But in fact, the word "surge" didn't appear once in Hillary's speech, and her aides have been on record all day today saying that the tactic she referred to as "working" was not the surge but to reports of increased cooperation between Sunnis and U.S. troops.

Poll: Congressional Approval Matches Previous Record Low
A new Gallup poll shows Congress' approval is at a pathetic 18%, with 76% disapproval. The last time Congressional approval was this bad in Gallup polling was March 1992, in the middle of the Congressional bank scandal, when members were found to be bouncing checks.

Poll: Majority Want National Popular Vote
Rasmussen has a new poll out asking this question: "Should the United States get rid of the Electoral College so that the winner of the popular vote becomes President?" The Yes position won a good-sized 54% support, to only 30% opposed.

Fletcher Going On "No Casino Tour"
Incumbent Governor Ernie Fletcher (R-KY), who has been trailing badly in the polls for this November's election, is embarking on a "No Casino Tour" of the state, hoping to drag down Democratic nominee Steve Beshear on that issue. Beshear favors the legalization of casino gambling in Kentucky, and Fletcher has also launched a Web site to highlight the social ills associated with casinos.

Republican John Stephen Declares Against Carol Shea-Porter
Former New Hampshire Health and Human Services commissioner John Stephen officially declared his campaign today against freshman Democratic Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter, who defeated two-term Republican Jeb Bradley in a major upset last year. Bradley has also declared his candidacy for the seat, so a Republican primary for the seat may end up occurring.

Huckabee Camp: Donations Going Up Since Straw Poll
Mike Huckabee campaign manager Chip Saltsman told David Brody that they have experienced serious growth in contributions and overall interest in the candidate since his second-place showing at the Iowa Straw Poll. "We’ve had a good 10 days since the straw poll. We definitely had our best stretch online since the straw poll," Saltsman said. "We now have thirteen fundraisers on the books with either five or six pending. Half of the money is coming from Arkansas, a good chunk from Texas and strong interest in California."

Arizona Moving Primary To February 5
Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ) will reportedly invoke her executive authority move the state's presidential primarY to February 5, up from its current date of February 26. This puts Arizona in line with an estimated 19 other states to thus far move their primaries to February 5, the de facto national primary date sanctioned by the national party committees. However, Florida has already moved ahead of even that date, defying the parties, and and Michigan is on the verge of changing their date to January 15, two weeks before Florida.

Both Barack Obama and Fred Thompson gave speeches today to the Veterans of Foreign Wars convention in Kansas City, Missouri — and, to put it charitably, the speeches were delivered with mixed results.

Barack Obama called for a commitment to end the problem of veterans ending up homeless. "On any given night, more than 200,000 veterans are homeless. We're already hearing about hundreds of homeless Iraq War vets. That's not right. That's not keeping our sacred trust. We must not leave these men and women behind," Obama said, according to prepared remarks.

For his part, Fred Thompson said that called Iraq an important front in the War on Terror, from which America must not withdraw. "We know that Iraq is an important front in this war," Thompson said. "But we also know that if we appear to be divided and weak in this nation, that it is going to ennoble an enemy."

Either the Chicago Tribune took down the speech incorrectly, or Thompson used the wrong word. Thompson might have meant to say "embolden," not "ennoble," as not even the most vocal war hawk would argue that domestic debate about the Iraq War will result in the enemy being given titles of nobility such as Duke, Baron, Lord, etc.

Update: The speech can be viewed here. Thompson did in fact say "ennoble."

Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ) will reportedly invoke her executive authority move the state's presidential primarY to February 5, up from its current date of February 26. This puts Arizona in line with an estimated 19 other states to thus far go to the de facto national primary date sanctioned by the national party committees — though other states, like Michigan and Florida, have already gone ahead of even that.

If John McCain is still in the race by then, he'll probably win his home state's GOP primary by a decent margin.

Barack Obama has been making an interesting claim on the stump: That his candidacy can drive a higher African-American turnout, shifting the safely Republican states of the Deep South over to the Democratic column.

"If we just got African-Americans in Mississippi to vote their percentage of the population, Mississippi is suddenly a Democratic state," Obama is quoted in the Associated Press, with the report saying he also mentioned Georgia and South Carolina as states where a better black turnout could put the Dems over the top.

But can this claim hold up when you look at the actual numbers? It doesn't really seem like it can. Take a look at the 2004 exit polls of those three states, plus the 2000 Census data:

Analysis after the jump.

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Say this for the National Republican Senatorial Committee — they're in the black, unlike their counterparts over at the NRCC.

The numbers for the Dem and GOP Senate party committees are in, and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is outpacing the NRSC, just as on the House side. The NRSC brought in $2.2 million this past July and spent $1.5 million, a net gain of $700,000 for the month. The NRSC $6.5 million on hand, and no debts. But at least it's not in the red.

The DSCC, meanwhile, is still doing better overall. The DSCC raised $2.9 million last month and spent $2.7 million, a smaller net gain of $200,000 but they have $20.6 million on hand with $4 million in debts, for an overall cash on hand advantage of almost three to one against the NRSC.

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Democratic Senate candidate Mike Ciresi, a trial lawyer who is running against Al Franken for the DFL nomination to face incumbent Senator Norm Coleman (R-MN), has two new radio ads up.

One ad, "Disaster" begins with scattered news audio about deaths in Iraq, followed by Ciresi: "The Iraq war has been one of the worst foreign policy disasters in history. I’m Mike Ciresi and I’m running for Senate because after 4 years, a trillion dollars spent, and thousands of brave Americans killed or wounded, one thing is clear – getting us out of Iraq will take more than just talk – it will take experience and leadership."

The other ad, "Results," talks about Ciresi's work on the 1990's tobacco lawsuits and his philanthropy work. "As an attorney, he took on big tobacco against all odds. And he won, forcing them to stop marketing cigarettes to our kids," the narrator says. "And his foundation invests in schools, health care, and he’s created good paying jobs throughout the state."

The candidates in the closely-watched race for governor of Kentucky have launched the first ads of the general election, trading blows over incumbent Republican Ernie Fletcher's multiple scandals and over Dem Steve Beshear's embrace of casino gambling.

In his first ad, Beshear pitches himself as a bipartisan conciliator while also hitting Flitcher hard over ethics: "Unfortunately, some politicians care more about what's good only for themselves." Beshear currently has a strong lead in the polls thanks to Fletcher's scandals — indeed, not one poll since the primary has shown Beshear ahead by less than 15 points.

Fletcher's ad after the jump.

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On a conference call with Dem Rep. Patrick Murphy today, Barack Obama addressed the controversy over his wife's comment that "if you can't run your house, you can't run the White House."

Obama allowed that she repeatedly says this -- but he also asserted that Michelle is never referring to Hillary when she uses this line. He said:

“Anybody who’s listened to Michelle on the stump knows she talks about the importance of family. There are no references beyond her point that we’ve had an administration that talks about family values but doesn’t follow through on it.”

Meanwhile, a new video has surfaced of Michelle making the comment. Here's how she put it this time:

"One of the things, the important aspects of this race is role modeling what good families should look like. And my view is that if you can't run your own house, you certainly can't run the White House."

Lacking the context here, one could interpret this, if one wanted to, as a subtle suggestion that all the candidates are showcasing their families, and that this should be a consideration in choosing the next President. If you do read it this way, however, it's unclear why you'd automatically see the comments in this case as a reference to Hillary.

Meanwhile, one could also just as easily interpret her remarks here as saying that she views role modeling her own family as a key aspect of the campaign.

Okay, tell me why I'm wrong, already...

In what looks like his first jab at Rudy, Fred Thompson is using his campaign blog to lob an attack on the former Mayor over his embrace of lawsuits against gun manufacturers:

Unfortunately, New York is trying, again, to force its ways on the rest of us, this time through the courts. First, they went after U.S. gun manufacturers, seeking through a lawsuit not only money but injunctive control over the entire industry. An act of congress in 2005 blocked, but did not end, that effort.

Now, the same activist federal judge from Brooklyn who provided Mayor Giuliani’s administration with the legal ruling it sought to sue gun makers, has done it again. Last week, he created a bizarre justification to allow New York City to sue out-of-state gun stores that sold guns that somehow ended up in criminal hands in the Big Apple.

This goes a step beyond the new Mitt Romney radio ad, which merely attacked New York on the subject of illegal immigration, without specifically name-dropping Rudy. At this rate, all the GOP candidates save Rudy will soon be running against New York City.

Dems are continuing to trounce the GOP in the money chase for the 2008 House elections, according to July fundraising numbers released by the party committees today.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee brought in $4.12 million in July, and only spent $2.34 million — a "profit" of $1.78 million. The DCCC has $23.63 million on hand, with no outstanding debts.

By contrast, the National Republican Congressional Committee is still in the red.

The NRCC raised $2.56 million for the month, but spent $2.59 million — meaning they actually lost $30,000 for the month. On top of that, their $1.97 million cash on hand is counteracted by $4.1 million in debts. In short, they'll have to raised about $2.1 million before they'll actually be in the black, and this past month was a step slightly backwards instead of forwards.

Bottom line: When it comes to the 2008 House races, the Dems have a truly enormous financial head start. And it's going to be difficult, if not impossible, for the GOP to make up all the lost ground.

Woah, this is one hard-hitting spot. The Louisiana Democratic Party has just launched a new attack ad and Web site attacking Republican Congressman Bobby Jindal, and the ad has to be seen to be appreciated in all its vicious glory.

The ad — which is intended to damage Jindal among the white Protestants who comprise the Louisiana GOP base in advance of this fall's gubernatorial race — slams Jindal as anti-Protestant over several articles Jindal wrote for a right-wing Catholic journal in the mid-1990's, a few years after he converted from Hinduism to Catholicism. Take a look:

In the articles, Jindal, who's way ahead in the polls right now, directed some of his ire not only at non-Christians but also at Protestants, whom he apparently considered to be heretics from the true Christianity.

"He has referred to Protestant religions as scandalous, depraved, selfish and heretical," the narrator tells us. "In this article, Bobby Jindal doubts the morals and questions the beliefs of Baptists, Methodists, Episcopalians, Pentecostals and other Protestant religions."

Louisiana's white Catholics are often a key swing vote, while white Protestants tend to vote heavily Republican. Will this effort to drive a wedge between Jindal and the Louisiana GOP base work?

A mini-skirmish erupted this morning in the Democratic Primary after the Chicago Sun Times quoted Michelle Obama saying the following at a recent campaign stop:

"If you can't run your own house, you can't run the White House."

The Sun Times claimed that this "could be interpreted" as an attack on the Clintons. That prompted Drudge to grab the quote, making it his lead story and flacking it as an assault on Hillary.

There's only one problem: The Obama campaign says this wasn't an attack on Hillary at all. Obama spokesperson Bill Burton has just sent me the following:

"The only family Mrs. Obama was referring to was the Obama family."

So, was this an attack on Hillary? Could it "be interpreted" as such, as the Sun-Times put it? Or was this another case of a reporter getting rewarded by a Drudge link for practicing shoddy journalism?

Well, other parts of the speech did draw a contrast between Hillary and Obama. But if you look at a transcript of her larger remark, which was sent to me by the Obama campaign, it certainly calls into question whether this particular line was an attack on Hillary, and suggests that she was indeed talking about the Obama family right then. Take a look at the transcript after the jump.

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Iraq vet and Dem Congressman Patrick Murphy is set to endorse Barack Obama in a conference call this morning.

Murphy, who's used his veteran status to speak out forcefully against the war, will likely employ his moderately high profile as a war opponent to amplify Obama's message that his early opposition to the Iraq invasion makes him the most genuinely anti-war of all the candidates. We'll bring you more after the conference call.

Late Update: As we promised earlier, we just got off the conference call held by Dem Rep. and Iraq vet Patrick Murphy held to endorse Barack Obama. It was mostly boilerplate, with Obama praising Murphy and Murphy praising Obama, but one comment by Murphy does stand out, in his discussion of Obama's potential to change the country's politics.

"I think he's absolutely our best chance to change the direction of our country," Murphy said, emphasizing the words "our best chance" in a way that seemed to imply Obama might be the most electable candidate. "I'm inspired by his call to action to change how it's done — the business in Washington."

A new Rasmussen poll finds that the American people favor reform of the Electoral College system towards a national popular vote — and would also oppose reform efforts that might increase the likelihood of a Republican victory.

In response to the question, "Should the United States get rid of the Electoral College so that the winner of the popular vote becomes President?" the Yes position won a good-sized 54% support to only 30% opposed.

Meanwhile, the pollster asked about another idea, set to go on the California ballot next summer due to a Republican-backed petition drive, which would apportion electoral votes according to the winners of Congressional districts:

In a theoretical sense, 45% of voters nationwide think that’s a good idea. Thirty percent (30%) disagree while 25% are not sure. However, even that tepid level of support dissipates when voters learn that a change in California could significantly increase the number of Republican Electoral Votes. Once that is factored into the equation, support drops to 31% and opposition increases to 43%.

That's right: Once people find out that an idea would boost the chances for a Republican win, they become opposed.

Mitt Romney has a new radio attack ad running in Iowa and New Hampshire. The target of the ad?

New York City.

The ad attacks "sanctuary cities" that don't enforce federal immigration laws, singling out New York. Oddly, the ad doesn't mention its obvious target — Rudy Giuliani, who was of course Mayor of New York and has come under criticism from Romney for his past tolerance towards illegal immigration. Take a look:

The ad is similar in some ways to an earlier Romney ad, which also targeted a place, rather than a person: Liberal Massachusetts, whose residents elected him to serve as their Governor in 2002 for one term.

Update: Asked why the ad didn't specifically mention Rudy, Romney spokesman Kevin Madden emailed us the following:

“This radio ad carries a clear message about Governor Romney’s opposition to sanctuary city policies. The ad offers a contrast between Governor Romney’s position and the position of those who implemented, embraced or defend sanctuary city policies that encouraged more illegal immigration and led to a weakening of our nation’s border security efforts.”

Obama Says He Would Ease Travel/Money Restrictions On Cuba
Barack Obama has written an op-ed piece for the Miami Herald, in which he criticizes the Bush Administration for having increased travel restrictions to Cuba in 2004, and pledges to relax those restrictions if he's elected president. "Cuban-American connections to family in Cuba are not only a basic right in humanitarian terms, but also our best tool for helping to foster the beginnings of grass-roots democracy on the island," Obama wrote. "Accordingly, I will grant Cuban Americans unrestricted rights to visit family and send remittances to the island."

Poll: Hillary Leads In Iowa
A new Zogby poll of Iowa finds Hillary Clinton leading in the caucus with 30% support. John Edwards is second at 23%, and Barack Obama third with 19%. Bill Richardson is fourth with 10%, and no other candidate got more than three percent.

Poll: Louisianans Approve Of Vitter
A new poll of Louisiana by Baton Rouge-based firm Southern Media & Opinion Research finds that Senator David Vitter (R), who was revealed to have patronized prostitutes in the D.C. Madam scandal, has a 66.7% approval rating, and only 22.5% disapproval.

Chris Dodd: Dems Should Not Pursue Impeachment
Chris Dodd told an Iowa audience that the Democratic Congress should not pursue impeachment of President Bush, saying that such a fruitless exercise would take up too much time and potentially alienate the public. "If we become preoccupied with an impeachment process, I think we could turn off an awful lot of people who might otherwise be willing to support Democrats and be willing to change the direction of the country in the fall of 2008," Dodd said.

McCain Campaign Conducting Internal Audit
John McCain's campaign is doing an internal audit, aimed at figuring out just how they managed to raise $25 million in six months and yet end up on the verge of bankruptcy. McCain told a conference call of conservative bloggers that the audit is being done "to find out exactly what we spent."

Freshmen Democratic Congressmen Raking in Donations
Political strategists consider freshman Democrats elected to GOP-leaning districts to be the Republicans' best targets in 2008, but it appears they won't be going down without a serious fight. USA Today reports that freshman Dems are currently out-raising freshman Republicans nearly two to one, with an average of $600,000 raised per Democratic rookie. Defeating an incumbent is difficult in the best of circumstances, but Republican challengers will have to work even harder to overcome the Democrats' growing cash advantage.

Tancredo Visits Newark, Blames Murders On Illegal Immigration Policies
Tom Tancredo delivered a speech yesterday from the steps of the city hall in Newark New Jersey, blaming a recent rash of murders on the city's policy of not policing illegal immigration. Two of the suspects in the case were in the country illegally. "If the suspects are found guilty, Newark and its political leadership share a degree of responsibility," Tancredo said.

Clinton, McCain Speak At Veterans Event
Hillary Clinton and John McCain spoke today at the annual meeting of the Veterans of Foreign Wars in Kansas City, offering dueling messages on the war in Iraq. "I do not think the Iraqis are ready to do what they have to do for themselves yet," Hillary told the crowd. "I think it is unacceptable for our troops to be caught in the crossfire of a sectarian civil war while the Iraqi government is on vacation." According to the AP, McCain drew large applause from the group of veterans reaffirming his support for Bush's escalation of troop levels. "We're starting to succeed, and I think we're seeing some shift in public opinion," he told the audience.

Clinton Advisor Mark Penn Has New Book
Hillary Clinton pollster/advisor Mark Penn has a new book out, entitled Microtrends, in which he sets out to understand how different demographic groups make their voting decisions based on a mixture of economic and social-values factors. For example, the growth in Hispanic votes for President Bush in 2004 came not from Catholics, but from Protestant Hispanics, mainly Pentecostals. Another contention of Penn is about the new class of political donors, who give online to campaigns and 527 groups: "we have a new class of givers playing an increasingly important role in politics — and statistical proof that their heads are nowhere near the voters.'"

Potential Candidates Looking At Pickering Seat — Dem Ronnie Shows Might Run
The field of candidates is still taking shape for the seat of Congressman Chip Pickering, who is retiring in 2008, with a lot depending on how the state elections this fall turn out. But for now, GOP Lt. Governor Amy Tuck has taken herself out of the running, and former Dem Congressman Ronnie Shows, who lost to Pickering 64%-35% in a post-redistrcting member-vs.-member race in 2002, is looking at at the race. "I'm looking at it very strongly ... I miss being there, but I've been pretty successful since leaving," Shows said.

GOP Senator Isakson Looking At 2010 Georgia Governor Race
Senator Johnny Isakson (R-GA) told the Marietta Daily Journal that he is considering running for governor in 2010, when his Senate seat would be up for election and current GOP Governor Sonny Perdue is term-limited. "I'm going to be on the ballot in 2010, and where I am on the ballot depends on what I decide after the 2008 elections are over," Isakson said. In other words, a strongly increased Dem majority in 2008 might spur Isakson to go home, ruling in Georgia rather than serving in Washington.

Ned Lamont Campaigns For Maine's Tom Allen
A Maine Democratic Party annual lobster bake over the weekend featured an interesting special guest: Connecticut's Ned Lamont, the 2006 Democratic nominee for Senate against Dem-turned-Independent Joe Lieberman. "I’m a firm believer that those who got us into this mess should be held accountable," Lamont told the cheering crowd. Incumbent Republican Susan Collins is supported for re-election by Joe Lieberman, who has a held a fundraiser for her.

FEC Receives Formal Complaint Against Fred Thompson's Non-Campaign
Blogger Lane Hudson today filed a formal complaint to the FEC regarding Fred Thompson's still undeclared campaign, arguing that his activities go beyond "testing the waters." Hudson posted on his blog today that "Fred Thompson is breaking the law and it's time somebody did something about it." Hudson concluded: "I hope that the FEC will act quickly on this issue. Failure to do so will contribute to further corruption of the American political process." "We're following the law," Thompson spokesman Jim Mills countered. If Lane Hudson sounds familiar to you it should — he broke the Mark Foley scandal by posting e-mails between Foley and a congressional page.

"Obama Girl" Confuses, Frightens Obama's Children
It's all fun and games until someone gets hurt. In an interview with the AP today, Barack Obama says that while he appreciated the good intentions of the famous Obama Girl web video, the sexy short has been upsetting to his children. "Sasha asked Mommy about it. She said, 'Daddy already has a wife' or something like that," Obama told the reporter. "I guess it's too much to ask, but you do wish people would think about what impact their actions have on kids and families," Obama added.

As we reported earlier today, Senators John Warner and Carl Levin just returned from Iraq, issuing a statement today saying that while the surge is producing "measurable results" the two Senators are "not optimistic" about the likelihood of political reconciliation in Iraq.

This afternoon Levin held a conference call with reporters, and he went even further, making news by calling on the Iraqi parliament to boot Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

Levin — lest anyone mistake him for a "war critic supporting the surge" — also said that the only way to spur the Iraqis to action is by drawing down troop levels. More from his interview after the jump.

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Over at The Washington Post, the Fix blog is reporting that another one of John Edwards' staffers in Nevada -- Edwards field director Preston Elliott -- is leaving.

WaPo plays this info as a new revelation that, coming in the wake of several other Nevada staff departures last week, shows just how badly the Edwards campaign is tanking in the state. "More bad news for Edwards," lectures the headline, adding that this latest "is sure to stoke rumors that Edwards is not seriously contesting the Nevada caucus."

Of course, if this info is sure to stoke such rumors, than it already would have stoked them -- because the resignation of this particular staffer was already reported six days ago by the Associated Press in their story last week about the initial departures.

To be clear, my point isn't to snark about WaPo claiming a scoop that it shouldn't have, but rather to point out that this "revelation" just doesn't constitute "more bad news" for Edwards.

You've probably heard by now that former Georgia Senator Sam Nunn, a Democrat, is considering an independent bid for the Presidency, possibly in the form of a centrist-style "Unity '08" bid.

Nunn is invariably described as a seasoned foreign policy hand and an elder statesman among moderate southern Dems -- which means that D.C. pundits would likely see his candidacy representing a more "serious" approach to national security issues than that held by mainstream Dems.

The thing is, though, Nunn's positions on his own pet issue of nuclear disarmament are pretty much identical with those held by some of the top-tier Democratic Presidential candidates, which really undermines both the rationale for a third-party candidacy, plus the whole media narrative of what constitutes a "serious" position.

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Looks like a Dem Congressman from California has been charged with assault and battery after a scuffle with an airline employee at Dulles International Airport last night.

According to local news ABC 7, which broke the story, cops were called to the baggage claim area after the Congressman, Robert Filner, was spotted by witnesses shoving his way past the employee to gain access to an employees-only baggage claim area.

Apparently Filner -- who represents California's 51st district, a safe Dem seat -- was a bit unnerved by how long it was taking for him to get hold of his baggage. The employee brought charges, and now Filner's due to appear in court in October.

If you want the blow by blow on this story, as it were, we've just received the full statement from the Washington Area Airports Authority after the jump. It tells the whole tale. No word from Filner himself on this, incidentally.

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Hillary Clinton and John McCain spoke today at the annual meeting of the Veterans of Foreign Wars in Kansas City, offering dueling messages on the war in Iraq.

Clinton spoke first, decrying the Iraqi government's inability to make political progress. "I do not think the Iraqis are ready to do what they have to do for themselves yet," Hillary told the crowd. "I think it is unacceptable for our troops to be caught in the crossfire of a sectarian civil war while the Iraqi government is on vacation." She has has often framed the issue of withdrawal as a failure of the Iraqis to govern themselves rather than a failure of Americans to achieve their objectives.

According to the AP, McCain drew large applause from the group of veterans while reaffirming his support for Bush's escalation of troop levels. "We're starting to succeed, and I think we're seeing some shift in public opinion," he told the audience.

How serendipitous.

The White House revealed today that General David Petraeus' testimony before Congress on progress in Iraq has now been scheduled -- and the chosen date just happens to be September 11, the sixth anniversary of the attacks.

Why the timing? The White House said today that it's based on the fact that Congress is now out of session and reconvenes in September with a very tight schedule. And in fairness, as Think Progress notes, the Petraeus briefing is mandated to occur before Sept. 15, which restricts the available dates.

Relatedly, it's worth recalling that despite denials, the White House did in fact push for Petraeus' briefings of Congress to be private, according to Democrats in on the discussions. Our report on that is here.

GOP Senator John Warner and Democrat Carl Levin recently returned from a trip to Iraq, and they've now issued a joint statement on their findings. Their verdict? The surge is having "measurable results."

But before we hear a roar of commentary to the effect that "war critics" say the surge is working, let's also note their other key finding: The prospects for political reconciliation -- the whole point of the surge in the first place -- are bleak indeed.

"While we believe that the `surge' is having measurable results, and has provided a degree of `breathing space' for Iraqi politicians to make the political compromises which are essential for a political solution in Iraq, we are not optimistic about the prospects for those compromises," the two Senators say.

Indeed, underscoring the two Senators' pessimism, they also say that this is the "last chance" for the Iraqi government to solve its political crisis, though they don't say what should happen if the government doesn't solve it (over to you, Atrios).

The two Senators are holding a conference call this afternoon to discuss their trip, and we'll keep you posted on what they say. Full statement after the jump.

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With all the speculation out there that Karl Rove is secretly attacking Hillary because he views her as a beatable candidate in a general election and is trying to help her win the nomination, it seems only fair to point to what Rove himself has now said about this.

Asked if his secret game plan was to boost her with the Dem primary electorate, Rove said: "Didn't know that I was. Don't think that I am."

I am going to submit my explanation one more time: Rove is attacking Hillary to help himself. He knows how p-o'ed the GOP rank and file is with him for botching things so badly, and going after Hillary is an easy way to spread fog across the landscape and give himself cover as he skulks away. It's all about him.

Relatedly, the Los Angeles Times offers a very elaborate dissection of Rove's motives here.

GOP Senator Thad Cochran of Mississippi is announcing that he'll running for another term in 2008, when he will be 70 years old. "He's planning to run, right now he's making preparations and doing fund-raisings," press secretary Margaret McPhillips tells the Meridian Star.

Cochran should be a safe bet for re-election, and his run was widely expected after Republican Congressman Chip Pickering, who would likely have been the GOP nominee for Senate if Cochran had retired, instead announced that he was retiring from Congress rather than continue to serve in the minority.

Influential Des Moines Register columnist David Yepsen calls yesterday's debate unequivocally for Barack Oama:

Obama may be the biggest winner.

He was in the cross hairs for much of the early part of the session and he stood up well to the scrutiny over his foreign policy positions and questions of whether he's qualified to be president...

He came off as knowledgeable and temperate. He looked presidential and unlike some of his earlier, halting debate performances, was much more polished and laid back in this one.

You can rest assured that the fact that the likes of Yespen slapped the P-word -- Presidential -- on Obama resulted in plenty of high-fives over at Obama HQ. Meanwhile, Yespen had little to say about Hillary save for noting that she seemed "a little off her game."

Bush To Egyptian Opposition: "I Too Am A Dissident In Washington."

As his wide-ranging goals of exporting democracy through military adventures have come to be rejected by most of Washington and the American public, President Bush has apparently come to view himself as a persecuted non-conformist. Bush recently told a group of opponents to the authoritarian regime in Egypt, "I too am a dissident in Washington. Bureaucracy in the United States does not help change. It seems that Mubarak succeeded in brainwashing them."

Obama Makes Pitch To Veterans

Barack Obama spoke to a group of military veterans on a conference call yesterday, giving a sneak preview of themes he will expound upon in a speech tomorrow before the Veterans of Foreign Wars national convention in Kansas City. "We're going to ensure that Americans going to war have the armed forces that it needs," Obama told them. "As part of that, I want to add 65,000 soldiers and 27,000 Marines to relieve the strain on our ground forces."

Hannity Speaks At Rudy Fundraiser

The New York Daily News reported yesterday that Fox News personality Sean Hannity introduced Rudy Giuliani at a closed-door $250/head fundraiser in Cincinnati on August 9. Bill Shine, Fox's senior vice president of programming, said Hannity should not be judged according to the standards of journalistic ethics, which speak out against actively helping a candidate in such a manner. "Sean is not a journalist - Sean is a conservative commentator," Shine said. "Sean doesn't hide, and never has hidden, his beliefs from anyone."

Democrats, Republicans Battle To Spin Congressional Performance Over Recess

The Washington Post reports on the epic battle to define the conventional wisdom over Congress' performance as the 2008 elections approach. While Democrats continue their successful 2006 strategy of defining all Republicans as Loyal Bushies, Republicans are doing their best to spin their obstructionism into a tale of a Democratic-controlled "do-nothing" Congress. The GOP may have a harder time getting their message on the airwaves, though. According to the article "The DCCC has a 10-to-1 cash-on-hand advantage over its Republican rival, and that is likely to grow."

Rudy Trying To Communicate With Iowans

The New York Times has a somewhat humorous write-up on Rudy Giuliani's efforts to stump in Iowa: It is a portrait of a lifelong New Yorker who apparently did not know that corn is harvested in the fall, now trying to find some rapport with Midwestern farmers. Rudy frequently invokes Staten Island, a suburban borough of New York City and Republican stronghold that helped him get elected mayor in 1993. "His invocation of Staten Island for common ground in his conversations with Iowans was perhaps a bit of a stretch," the Times observes. "While Staten Island is unlike any of the other four New York boroughs — more open land than high rises — it has been a long time since it was known for its farms."

In Alabama, Artur Davis Raising Money For Potential Statewide Run

Third-term Congressman Artur Davis (D-AL) has been busy raising money for his campaign committee, which now has $601,707 on hand. The money not only can be used to fend off a primary challenger in 2008 — Davis himself defeated an incumbent in the 2002 primary — but can be stashed away for a 2010 campaign for governor or Senate, in which Davis might attempt to become the first black governor or senator from the state. "You're in a stronger position for re-election and exploring other opportunities if you have a capacity to raise money," said Davis. "It is an indication of political viability."

Biden Talks About Flag-Draped Coffins In Ad

Here's the new Joe Biden ad, running in Iowa and shown at yesterday's Democratic debate, in which the candidate talks about the emotional experience of flying on a military plane with the flag-draped coffin of a dead serviceman. "And all I could think about was the parents waiting at the other end," Biden says "We must end this war — in a way that doesn't require us to send their grandchild back."

• This morning's ABC News Democratic debate in Des Moines was very good in a lot of ways, with some of the most substantive discussions of policy that we've seen at any televised debate up until now.

• George Stephanopoulos again opened the debate by introducing the candidates according to their poll numbers. The figures: Obama 27%, Clinton 26%, Edwards 26%, a three-way statistical tie, followed by Bill Richardson at 11%. Fun fact: Mike Gravel did not have the support of even one respondent.

• Hillary Clinton stood by her opposition to Barack Obama's position on meeting with hostile foreign leaders: "Well, George, we had a specific disagreement because I do not think that a president should give away the bargaining chip of a personal meeting with any leader unless you know what you're going to get out of that."

• Joe Biden stood by his statement that the presidency is not a place that lends itself to on-the-job training.

• Bill Richardson had a decent line: "You know I think that Senator Obama does represent change. Senator Clinton has experience. Change and experience — with me, you get both." The line was met by a mixture of laughter and applause.

• Chris Dodd stuck to his denunciations of Obama's proposals on Pakistan. "The only person that separates us from a jihadist government in Pakistan with nuclear weapons is President Musharaf," Dodd said. "And therefore I thought it was irresponsible to engage in that kind of a suggestion here. That's dangerous — words mean something in campaigns."

• Barack Obama had his own flippant opening line, casting some light on the absurdity of the nominating process: "You know, to prepare for this debate I rode in the bumper cars at the state fair." He then gave a substantive defense of his proposal to cross the Pakistani border if necessary to catch Osama bin Laden, calling it "common sense."

• On the subject of nuclear weapons, John Edwards said, "What America should do, and what I would do as president, is to actually lead an international effort to eliminate nuclear weapons from the planet. That's the way to make the planet more secure."

• Mike Gravel got some applause for this one: "When Democrats buy into 'the problem of Iran,' they just help Vice President Cheney, who should be committed with his recent statements."

• Dennis Kucinich was quite openly irked that Stephanopoulos didn't call on him until 26 minutes into the program: "Actually, George, this debate is insufficient, because you're really not including all the candidates here, and you're trying to polarize people out of the race."

• Kucinich said the well-known hedge fund Fortress Investment Group was poised to do well under any health plan that didn't replace the current system wit a government run program — a clear jab at John Edwards, who has worked for Fortress. He then talked about how he is the only candidate who would completely replace the current profit-driven health care system with a not-for-profit government run system with a guarantee of universal access.

• Bill Richardson said a withdrawal from Iraq can and should be done in six to eight months. "I believe that if you leave any residual forces, then none of the peace that we are trying to bring can happen."

• Joe Biden sharply differed, saying a quick withdrawal would only ignore a wider regional war that would cause more damage. "My reaction is, that it's time to start to level with the American people," Biden said. "This administration hasn't been doing it for seven years. We should." Biden also cited Yugoslavia as an example of how to do it right, keeping a force there that separates the warring parties without incurring casualties.

• Hillary Clinton sided more with Biden: "This is a massive, complicated undertaking, and we do have to do it as carefully and responsibly as possible."

• Barack Obama sided with Biden on the idea that getting out of Iraq will be a long and difficult process, but made sure to get in a dig against Biden and the other candidates: "The thing that I wish would have happened is that all the people on this stage had asked these questions before they authorized us getting in." Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and Chris Dodd all voted to authorize the war in 2002.

• A question from a viewer in Salt Lake City asked the candidates whether they believed in the power of intercessionary prayer — the idea that God can stop a bad thing from happening or make it less severe, such as a hurricane or a bridge collapse. All the candidates gave various lines about how prayer can give people a measure of strength, but only John Edwards and Joe Biden said bluntly that prayer cannot stop a bad event. When it was Dennis Kucinich's turn, he shot back at Stephanopoulos, "George, I've been standing here for the last 45 minutes praying that you were going to call on me," and then looked upwards as if to say God answered his prayers.

• John Edwards criticized trade deals: "The question seems to have been on past trade agreements like NAFTA: Is this trade agreement good for the profits of big multinational corporations?" Instead, he said he would ask the question, "Is this good for middle-class working families in America?"

• Hillary clinton mounted a sort of defense of trade deals, pointing out how many agricultural products have been exported thanks to them, but said greater efforts should be made to help family farmers in trade deals, not just large agribusiness.

• Chris Dodd said he made an enormous mistake in not filibustering the military commissions bill. "I can't think of a worse vote we cast, to walk away from the Constitution of the United States."

• Chris Dodd's campaign released this chart comparing how much time each candidate got to talk — showing their man second only to Mike Gravel in being given the least time to say anything: