Obama To Limit Future Debate Participation
Barack Obama's campaign has sent out a memo signaling that they intend to only participate in DNC-sanctioned debates between now and December 10, plus two Iowa events already scheduled. "Unfortunately, we simply cannot run the kind of campaign we want and need to, engaging with voters in the early states and February 5 states, if our schedule is dictated by dozens of forums and debates," wrote advisor David Plouffe. "Ultimately, the one group left out of the current schedule is the voters and they are the ones who ask the toughest questions and most deserve to have those questions answered face to face."

Rudy Supports Bush's Social Security Plan
A very nice catch by Steve Benen: Buried deep in this Associated Press article is the news that Rudy Giuliani supports Bush's failed proposal to let people invest some of their Social Security taxes in private accounts, a proposal that went down to ignominious defeat. "I would have preferred, over my lifetime, if I could have invested some of that Social Security money myself," Rudy said. "I think I would have done much better than the government did."

Poll: Romney Ascending
A Gallup poll released last night shows Mitt Romney overtaking John McCain for third place among Republicans nationally, though it is still within the margin of error. The numbers: Giuliani 32%, Thompson 19%, Romney 14%, McCain 11%.

Arkansas Governor To Endorse Hillary
Governor Mike Beebe (D-AR) is expected to formally endorse Hillary Clinton, the former first lady of Arkansas, for president on Monday. Beebe was elected to his first term as governor last year, after serving a single term as state attorney general. This comes on the heels of a new poll showing Hillary Clinton easily beating both Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson in the state.

Bloomberg Again Rules Out Run For President
Dan Rather told Chris Matthews yesterday, in a taping for the Sunday morning Chris Matthews Show, that Mike Bloomberg ruled out a presidential campaign in a recent interview yet to air on HDNet. "In a direct answer to a direct question, would he run under any circumstances, he danced around a bit and finally said 'No,'" said Rather. "Furthermore, he said he wasn’t open to even considering running as a vice presidential candidate with anybody, and he wouldn’t take a place in anybody’s cabinet." On the other hand, Rather thinks Bloomberg might run against Democratic Governor Eliot Spitzer in 2010.

A Reminder: The Dems Debate Tomorrow Morning
Remember to tune into ABC tomorrow morning at 10 a.m. ET for a special edition of This Week with George Stephanopoulos, in which the Democratic presidential candidates will meet for a live debate from Des Moines, Iowa.

Okay, CNN has now picked up and aired the video we posted the other day of Rudy's speech in 1996. In it, Rudy declared that we will "never, ever" be able to totally control immigration -- a comment strikingly at odds with his current campaign vow to "end" illegal border-crossing for good.

The network also got a response to our video from the Giuliani campaign.

Unfortunately, however, CNN botched its report, letting the Rudy camp skate by with an explanation that was almost comically bogus. The network only played a tiny snippet of the Rudy speech, omitting the part of it that would have proven that the campaign's pushback is complete nonsense. As such, CNN's report is worth a look, because it signals a potential pitfall for the media in covering Rudy's latest ongoing exercise in immigration dissembling. Check it out:

Look, I greatly appreciate the pickup and the plug for the site, and it's good to see that CNN is paying attention to Rudy's immigration shenanigans. Nonetheless, this just won't do.

As you can see from the above video, the Rudy campaign's response here is that Rudy meant to say in his 1996 speech that we couldn't end immigration merely because we didn't have the technology to do it. And if you focus on the one sentence of the speech that CNN quoted, this is at least a somewhat plausible explanation. The Rudy quote CNN selected was this one:

"We're never, ever going to be able to totally control immigration to a country that is as large as ours."

Here, however, are the Rudy quotes from our video that CNN left out:

"We're never, ever going to be able to totally control immigration to a country that is as large as ours, that has borders that are as diverse as the borders of the United States, and as a society that wants to be a country that values freedom -- that values freedom of movement, freedom to do business.

"If you were to totally control immigration into the United States, if you were to totally control the flow of people in the United States, you might very well destroy the economy of the United States because you'd have to inspect everything and everyone in every way possible. I don't know that there's any technological way to totally control it. There's no doubt much better ways to get more of a reasonable degree of assurance about who's coming in, to get more control over it, you're never totally going to control it. So we just have to accept that if we want to be the kind of country that we are."

As you can see, in 1996 Rudy wasn't merely saying that totally controlling immigration was impossible; he was also explicitly saying that he thought that doing so was a bad idea, too. While he did allude to the technological aspect of the problem, he also very clearly said that devoting the resources necessary to totally halting immigration could "destroy the economy of the United States" and could even threaten our sense of ourselves as a society that "values freedom of movement, freedom to do business."

So, again, the crux of Rudy's view back then was that trying to totally control immigration was a bad idea -- something that again is strikingly at odds with his current stance, and something that is getting lost here.

The reason this matters is that this mumbo-jumbo about technology is emerging as Rudy's primary pushback on immigration right now. He even repeated it himself as a campaign stop on Thursday, and he'll certainly be repeating it again and again during his quest for the GOP nomination. So let's hope that reporters avoid getting snookered by Rudy's latest exercise in dissembling as we go forward.

A Reminder: The Dems Debate This Weekend

The Democratic candidates will meet for a debate Sunday morning on a special edition of ABC's This Week with George Stephanopoulos, live from Des Moines.

Fred Thompson Speaks (But Doesn't Declare) In Iowa

Fred Thompson spoke in Iowa today, his first visit to the state, skirting the awkward line between maintaining his undeclared status and trying to build up excitement for his forthcoming campaign. "I am unabashedly pro-life. I am pro-Second Amendment and I don’t apologize for the United States of America," Thompson told a crowd in Des Moines. According to The New York Times, Thompson carefully chose his words to reflect his non-candidate status, even as a voice from the crowd shouted "Hurry up and declare, already!"

Obama Calls For Reform Of Farm Subsidies

Speaking at an Iowa high school, Barack Obama today called for changing agricultural policy to eliminate subsidies for wealthy and corporate farms and instead target small farmers for federal aid. "While you’re working hard to strengthen your farms, your families, and your communities, our government is working for big agribusiness," Obama told the audience. "In the last decade, we’ve handed out $1.3 billion in federal farm money to people who aren’t even farmers. We’ve even got farm money going to Fortune 500 companies." John Edwards advocates similar reforms, and both specifically call for lowering the payment limit to 250,000 dollars per year.

Obama Camp Recruits High-Profile Legal Advisor

The Obama campaign has brought on former federal judge Eric Holder as a legal advisor. Holder served as an assistant attorney general during the Clinton years, and has spent the last six years in corporate. Notably, he is currently involved in the NFL's internal inquiry over the Michael Vick scandal. "Given Holder’s credentials," the Chicago Tribune speculates, "it isn’t outside the realm of possibility to suggest he could wind up the nation’s first African-American attorney general should Obama win the White House."

Heather Wilson Touring New Mexico — Is A Senate Run In The Works?

Courtesy of New Mexico FBIHOP, Congresswoman Heather Wilson (R-NM) has been touring areas of her state outside of her home district — seemingly an indication that she's planning a statewide run. It's possible that 75-year old GOP Senator Pete Domenici will retire, as he has been implicated in the U.S. Attorney scandal — Heather Wilson has also been the subject of similar accusations by former U.S. Attorney David Iglesias.

Kucinich: Solve Infrastructure Problems With New WPA

In an interview with the Boston Globe editorial board, Dennis Kucinich proposes solving unemployment and national infrastructure problems in one blow by bringing back the New Deal-era Works Progress Administration, which put people to work building roads, bridges, buildings and other projects. Kucinich declined to talk about Rosemary Palmer, who is running against him in the Democratic primary for his seat in Congress. Palmer is a former supporter of Kucinich who also lost a son in Iraq, and charges that the presidential candidate is ineffective in his normal job. "Let me be clear," Kucinich said. "I'm here to talk about my candidacy for president."

Former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL) officially announced today his retirement from the House in 2008, and prospective candidates are already lining up to make the race.

Republicans expected to get in: State Senator Chris Lauzen, Geneva Mayor Kevin Burns, and dairy businessman Jim Oberweis, who ran unsuccessfully for the Republican nominations for Senate in 2002 and 2004, and for governor in 2006. If Oberweis runs it could be entertaining indeed — his Senate campaigns were characterized by a Tancredoesque focus on illegal immigrants.

And on the Dem side? Dems appear to be lining up behind retired Fermilab scientist Bill Foster, who would be able to use his personal wealth to fund a healthy chunk of his campaign. The Democrats' original preferred candidate, state Representative Linda Chapa LaVia, has already said she won't run.

Bottom line: The GOP is favored to keep this suburban Chicago district, which voted 55%-44% for George W. Bush in 2004. However, Illinois Democrats might benefit from a coattail effect if Barack Obama were nominated for president, making the seat a potential pickup.

With three GOP members of the House announcing their retirement this week alone, political insiders are starting to ask whether a so-called "retirement wave" is building among House GOPers. The idea is that Republicans don't think their party has a shot at reclaiming their majority next year and are gloomily pondering their future in the minority.

So, are more retirements coming? Here's a useful overview of the whole situation, including a GOP retirement "watch list."

Update: Commenter Ron K points us to another retirement watch overview at Swing State Project. And here's SSP's comparison of the current state of play with 2006.

Via the USA Today blog, you absolutely need to check out the interview Mike Huckabee just gave NPR's new podcast show, The Bryant Park Project. It turns out the man is an admirer of ... the Clintons:

"You know, I've never hated the Clintons. I still don't, I have great respect for them. He made a lot of mistakes — a lot of personal ones — but you know something that I think should not be forgotten. There's two things about Bill Clinton I tell Republicans, it drives them nuts, but here it is.

"Number one, don't get it lost on you that a kid out of a very small, Southern rural state aspired to be President of the United States. This kid came from a dysfunctional family — alcoholic abusive father. And yet he didn't just aspire, he was elected president of the United States not once, but twice. That is an affirmation of the system. And it's a wonderful testament to give to every kid in America that no matter where you've come from, you've got an opportunity to do something extraordinary.

"The second thing, and this'll really wrangle, again, some of my Republican colleagues. Bill Clinton and Hillary went through some horrible experiences in their marriage, because of some of the reckless behavior that he has admitted he had. I'm not defending him on that — it's indefensible. But they kept their marriage together. And a lot of the Republicans who have condemned them, and who talk about their platform of family values, interestingly didn't keep their own families together."

Earlier this afternoon we asked Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's office for a reaction to our story earlier today, which reported that the House Foreign Affairs Committee is claiming that despite denials, the White House did in fact push for a closed-door Petraeus briefing.

Now Reid spokesman Jim Manley has emailed over the following response:

"Despite the fact that it is from the same crowd that gave us `mission accomplished,' today's news is stunning. It's absolutely outrageous to think that the White House would try to prevent General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker from testifying in public. What in the world can they be afraid of?"

A new round of polling from Rasmussen shows Hillary Clinton with a strong lead in the Florida primary, with 43% of the vote to Barack Obama's 24% and John Edwards 11%.

The poll's key finding, though, is the extent to which this lead is fueled by female voters: Half of Rasmussen's women respondents support Hillary, compared to only 18% for Obama and 12% for Edwards. Among men, Hillary and Obama are tied.

Meanwhile, on the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani continues to lead, while Fred Thompson might be in decline and Mitt Romney on the rise, as he is in other polls we've posted this week.

In the survey, Rudy has 30%, Thompson 17%, Romney 15% and John McCain 7%. A month ago, Rudy and Thompson were statistically tied for first, while Romney and McCain were competing for third.

"The argument is not that I'm pristine, because I'm swimming in the same muddy water. The argument is that I know it's muddy and I want to clean it up."

-- Barack Obama, explaining why it's not contradictory for him to be advocating for lobbying reform despite having committed the "original sin" of fundraising.

Looks like John Edwards is being hit with yet another story involving his personal wealth — only this time, he's trying to turn it into a political positive.

The Wall Street Journal reported today that Edwards had holdings in a subprime lender that was foreclosing on some Hurricane Katrina victims — a potentially damaging story, since helping Katrina victims has been a key initiative in Edwards anti-poverty platform.

Edwards' response? He's promising today to divest from the firms, and even pledging to help the victims financially himself.

"My reaction is I'm going to help these people," Edwards said in a phone interview with the Associated Press. "I just learned about this. I don't know the details, I will find out and I will find a way to help them."

Read more »

If you thought the mess over the primary schedule was bad already, then get a load of this: Both state parties in Michigan have agreed to pass legislation moving the state's primary up to January 15, practically guaranteeing that other contests will be held in 2007.

This means that the DNC and RNC will have an even worse headache on their hands than the one they faced from Florida moving to January 29, ahead of the officially sanctioned date of February 5. A January 15 date guarantees a New Hampshire primary no later than January 8 — which puts the Iowa caucus at New Year's Day at the latest, in order to be a week before New Hampshire, but more likely some time in December 2007.

Some other reshuffling of the primary schedule in recent days has made it likely that Iowa's contest would be moved into 2007, but if these latest machinations in Michigan go through, that would practically clinch it.

And things can only get worse from there, with the possibility of more states moving up their contests. At the rate we're going, the Iowa caucus might have already been held last week.

You may recall that GOP Rep. Bill Sali generated some controversy last week after he criticized the delivery of a Hindu opening prayer in the Senate and condemned the election of freshman Rep. Keith Ellison, the first Muslim to serve in Congress.

Sali took some heat for saying that the country has been able to survive so long because of "the protective hand of God" and that events such as Ellison's election and the Hindu prayer create "problems for the longevity of this country."

Well, Sali has now apologized to Ellison.

Sali spokesman Wayne Hoffman told McClatchy News that Sali was unable to apologize in person to Ellison, who is out of the country, but the two have had an e-mail exchange that Hoffman characterized as "very pleasant and cordial in nature."

"He was hopeful that Congressman Ellison understands he meant no disrespect or harm from his comment, and that he hoped that he would meet with him when he returned to Washington, D.C.," Hoffman said.

Ellison's camp appeared to be magnanimous about the whole thing. "People have a bad day, they choose poorly chosen words ... he just simply doesn't choose to take any of that personally," said Ellison spokesman Rick Jauert.

Amid a bitter skirmish between the White House and Dems yesterday over whether General Petraeus will testify publicly to Congress about Iraq, the Bush administration repeatedly claimed yesterday that the administration had never pushed for closed-door-only briefings for Petraeus.

But that claim is false, according to an on-the-record statement we've obtained from the office of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

Rather, the Bush administration did in fact push for limited private briefings for Petraus and U.S. ambassador Ryan Crocker, and even did so as far back as early July, according to the statement, which was provided to Election Central by Lynne Weille, the communications director for Foreign Affairs Committee chair Tom Lantos.

"Administration officials told senior Congressional staff in early July that they preferred to have Ambassador Crocker and General Petraeus testify in closed session before the entire House of Representatives, rather than in open hearings," Weille said in the statement, which constitutes the first on-the-record assertion by Dems that this happened.

The statement is striking, because any White House bid to limit the briefing suggests that the administration may have wanted to prevent the public from hearing Petraeus' views of Iraq straight from him directly. Petraeus will also share his views via input he'll give on a written report, but that will be written by the White House.

What's more, the statement appears to directly contradict assertions made yesterday by administration spokesperson Gordon Johndroe. Asked yesterday if the White House had pushed for closed-door-only briefings, Johndroe said, "No, no."

The statement also suggests that the White House may have been trying to circumvent a key legal requirement that was written into the Iraq supplemental bill passed this spring with White House support -- i.e., that Petraeus and Crocker testify publicly.

Read more »

Gallup has a new report out, detailing the flow of George W. Bush's approval ratings over the years, as well as the approval of the Republican Party. The short version: Things have gone badly.

Some more details:

Self-identification with the Republican Party is at 28.5%, down from a peak of 36.4% during the 2004 election. The current figure is around where it was in 1992 and 1993, when George H. W. Bush was defeated, and around 1999, when the GOP was at a low due to the impeachment of Bill Clinton.

Including leaners, the Democrats have an identification advantage of 50.5%-40.5% — again, about where things were in 1992 and 1999.

The average quarterly favorable ratings for the GOP are at 36%, a statistically insignificant improvement of one point since the end of 2006, when it was at 35%. That was the GOP's nadir since 9/11, when they soared to 61% favorable.

The Dems' quarterly favorables are much better, at 51% favorable.

President Bush's quarterly approval ratings are at 31.8%, his all-time low, and definitely a huge decline from his 85.7% approval after 9/11.

It turns out that Hillary Clinton is polling well in at least one Southern state — and extraordinarily well, at that.

According to a new Rasmussen poll of Arkansas, where Bill Clinton formerly served as governor and Hillary as first lady, Hillary holds a 55%-37% lead over Giuliani and a 55%-36% lead over Fred Thompson, a Southerner.

You frequently hear from the pundits that Hillary is too polarizing a figure to play well in the South. But it appears that in Arkansas, at least, there are enough fond memories of her and enough of a lingering nostalgia for the Clinton name, that she might just be able to count on those six electoral votes.

Former GOP House Speaker Dennis Hastert was set to announce his retirement today at a public event in his district -- but as it turns out, he already said this morning that he's retiring, in an appearance on a local talk radio show, the Sun Times reports.

Hastert's seat is likely to remain in GOP hands. However, it should be noted that he is one of three Republicans to have announced their retirements from the House this week, along Deborah Pryce of Ohio and Chip Pickering of Mississippi.

This trend may be a result of the widespread feeling among House republicans that they won't get their lost majority back in 2008, thus causing some members to look for opportunities other than serving in the minority.

Fred Thompson Makes First Visit To Iowa Today

With Tommy Thompson's campaign defunct, Fred refills the Thompson quota in Iowa today, making his first visit to the state. Thompson will make a variety of stops across the state in coming weeks, including the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines and local radio shows. He is reportedly planning on officially declaring his presidential campaign in September.

Poll: Edwards Leads In Iowa

A new poll by Democratic firm Peter D. Hart Research Associates, conducted on behalf of the anti-poverty ONE campaign, shows John Edwards leading the Dem field in Iowa with 30% of caucus-goers, followed by Hillary Clinton at 22%, Barack Obama with 18%, and Bill Richardson at 13%.

Poll: Hillary, Romney Lead In Nevada

A new Research 2000 poll finds Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney leading in their respective caucuses in Nevada. The Democratic numbers: Hillary 33%, Obama 19%, Edwards 15%, Richardson 11%. The Republicans: Romney 28%, Thompson 18%, Giuliani 18%, McCain 8%.

Poll: Hillary Has 30-Point Lead In California

A new Field Poll in California finds Hillary Clinton with 49% of the Democratic vote, followed by Barack Obama with a mere 19%, and John Edwards at 10%. Bill Richardson, who one might expect to appeal to the state's Latino demographic, has a paltry 3%, tied with Joe Biden.

Poll: McCain's Favorables Sink In Arizona

A new poll of Arizona by pollster Behavior Research Center finds John McCain's ratings have sunk in his home state to 42% favorable and 30% unfavorable, a decline from 49%-18% back in March. BRC President Jim Haynes attributed McCain's decline to a combination of factors, mainly the failed immigration bill and the Iraq War.

Mitt Romney Wins Straw Poll In Illinois

Mitt Romney was the winner of a straw poll conducted by the Illinois Republican Party, held yesterday at the state fair. Romney came in first with 40.35%, followed by Fred Thompson at 19.96%, and Ron Paul with 18.87%. Rudy Giuliani was fourth with 11.61%, and John McCain was a very distant fifth, at 4.12%.

Richardson Aide Resigns After Brothel Scandal

The summer of sex-for-money scandals continues, this time in the Bill Richardson camp, where a top Nevada organizer for Richardson's campaign left his post yesterday after it came out that he had worked in a brothel and faced felony charges in California for writing bad checks. The aide, Kristian Forland, said of his brothel role Thursday, "I oversaw the bookkeeping only. I never handled cash, I didn't deal with the girls per se." Richardson's campaign spokesman claimed that they were unaware of their aide's lurid past.

Congressman Gutierrez Un-Retires

Congressman Luis Gutierrez (D-IL) announced yesterday that he is rescinding his plans to retire, and will run for a ninth term in 2008. "In recent months, I have heard from my constituents, local elected officials and community leaders," Gutierrez said. "They asked me to reconsider my decision. I am humbled by their support and gratified by their kind words." Gutierrez had announced his plan to retire in 2008 way back in late 2005, and had confirmed those intentions as recently as March of 2007 — but the comforts of life in the majority might have helped change his mind.

This morning's New York Times reports that Rudy spent a total of 29 hours at Ground Zero in three months after the attacks.

So we thought it would be worthwhile to highlight these Rudy quotes from September of 2006:

"I spent as much time here as anyone...I was here five, six times a day for four months. I kind of thought of it as living here."

Twenty-nine hours.

That's the total amount of time Rudy Giuliani actually spent at Ground Zero in three months following the attacks, according to a report in this morning's New York Times.

Rudy, you'll recall, recently caused a huge controversy by saying he'd spent as much or more time at Ground Zero than "most" of the 9/11 recovery workers. These new revelations about his time at the site are almost certain to raise yet more questions about his efforts to run for President partly on his performance after 9/11 -- and to further enrage the firefighters, cops and rescue workers who despise him for those efforts and accuse him of falsely lionizing his own 9/11 performance.

The news is kind of buried in the Times piece, but it's big:

A complete record of Mr. Giuliani’s exposure to the site is not available for the chaotic six days after the attack, when he was a frequent visitor. But an exhaustively detailed account from his mayoral archive, revised after the events to account for last-minute changes on scheduled stops, does exist for the period of Sept. 17 to Dec. 16, 2001. It shows he was there for a total of 29 hours in those three months, often for short periods or to visit locations adjacent to the rubble. In that same period, many rescue and recovery workers put in daily 12-hour shifts.

That's roughly an average of 10 hours a month.

Meanwhile, Michael Palladino, president of the Detectives Endowment Association, tells The Times that most of his members averaged more than 400 hours at the site (though it's unclear what time period he's referring to). And John McDonnell, president of the Uniformed Fire Officers Association in New York, tells the paper that many of his members worked consecutive 12-hour shifts at the site for weeks.

The piece also sheds light on the type of work Rudy was doing at the site: "The 29 hours Mr. Giuliani spent at ground zero involved 41 appearances, mostly to give tours to other officials and foreign dignitaries. Many entries include meetings away from the site before the tour."

Those 29 hours at the site also include on-site interviews Rudy did with Oprah, and Barbara Walters, according to a chart accompanying the piece.

Not exactly digging through the rubble.

Interestingly, when the Giuliani campaign was asked to respond to these revelations, the campaign supplied the following statement from former Giuliani deputy Mayor and Rudy loyalist Joe Lhota:

“Hundreds of thousands of people around the country and the world saw Rudy Giuliani’s steadfast and determined leadership firsthand at a time when we needed it most,” the statement said. “In the days surrounding September 11th, the safety and health of all those involved in the search and recovery efforts was Mayor Giuliani’s No. 1 one priority. Make no mistake, it is the very same concern Mayor Giuliani continues to express today when it comes to all those who have made tremendous sacrifices at ground zero.”

No denial.

Meanwhile, here's the video of Rudy saying he'd spent as much or more time at the site than "most" of the workers, adding that he's "one of them":

Editor's Note: A similar version of this is posted over at The Horse's Mouth, because we're experiencing technical difficulties with this site.

Presidental Voting Could Start In 2007, After All

In the wake of the reshuffling of the Presidential primary calendar, New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner is giving further indications that the state primary will be held on a Tuesday, rather than a Saturday as some hoped, which would push the Iowa caucus into December 2007. "As far as I'm concerned, the primary is on a Tuesday," Gardiner said — though he did leave himself a small amount of wiggle room for an "extraordinary circumstance."

Petraeus To Offer Public Testimony About Iraq Progress, After All

Despite a report in today's Washington Post claiming that the White House wanted General Petraeus' testimony next month on Iraq to be done in a private briefing to Congress, the White House is saying today that he will testify publicly, after all. "General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker will testify to the Congress in both open as well as closed sessions prior to the September 15th report," a White House spokesperson said today. Some in Congress, however, still wonder whether that was always the White House plan.

Romney Calls For Automatic Minimum Wage Adjustments

Mitt Romney today told a South Carolina crowd that he supported indexing the minimum wage to economic benchmarks, such as inflation and unemployment, a position at odds with many pro-business conservatives. "I do like the idea of getting the political debate out and I like the idea of not having the huge jumps as we do now," Romney said, referring to the recent increase in the minimum wage to $7.25 in 2009. Critics of wage indexation argue that it contributes to a continuous cycle of higher inflation.

Controversial Voting Technology Company Diebold Unable To Sell Product

Diebold, the controversial electronic voting equipment company, has found it difficult to sell its product amid questions of how secure its technologies are against voter fraud. The company reported that it had significantly reduced its revenue projections due to "the rapidly evolving political uncertainties and controversies surrounding state and jurisdiction purchases of electronic voting systems." Diebold became a household name in 2004, when critics wondered whether its owner, Wally O'Dell, a Republican fundraiser, could be trusted to ensure fair elections.

Poll: New Jerseyans Cool On Another Term For Lautenberg

A Rutgers-Eagleton poll gives New Jersey Republicans some small hope in taking down Dem Senator Frank Lautenberg next year. Only 24% of New Jerseyans say they would vote to re-elect Lautenberg, compared to 61% who say it is time for a change. The driving force seems to be age — Lautenberg will be 84 in 2008, and 90 in 2014 when a new term would end — and 64% believe Lautenberg would not be able to serve effectively. On the other hand, Lautenberg may be able to make up for this by waging a vigorous campaign, and state voters have an historic pattern of distrusting even the politicians that they re-elect.

Richardson Expanding Nevada Operation As Edwards Scales Down

Bill Richardson's campaign is expanding their staff presence in Nevada, after John Edwards' campaign announced that they are shifting staffers to Iowa in the wake of changes to the primary and caucus dates by New Hampshire and Iowa. Richardson's camp, however, sees an opportunity to fill in a vacuum in the first Western caucus. "Though other campaigns may waver, I remain committed to campaigning in Nevada," Richardson said in a statement.

Democrats Seek to Defeat Plan to Change California Electoral Law

Democrats are rallying to put in place the organization to defeat a ballot proposal from a Republican lawyer that would divide California's electoral votes by district, thus making a national Democratic presidential victory in 2008 all but impossible. Hollywood producer Steve Bing and investor Tom Steyer are forming a political committee, backed by Sens. Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and other prominent Democrats, that will raise money to combat the proposal. In a joint statement, Sens. Feinsten and Boxer derided the Republican effort as a "power grab" and "another cynical move to keep the presidency in Republican control."

And another one drops: Congressman Charles "Chip" Pickering, Jr. (R-MS), is expected to announce his retirement from the House.

First elected in 1996, Pickering was a safe bet for re-election, with a large campaign chest stored up, and would likely have been the GOP nominee if GOP Senator Thad Cochran were to retire. However, the increasing view that Cochran will be running again probably spurred Pickering's retirement, rather than continue in the House minority.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee gleefully took note of the retirement, the third GOP member of the House to let word slip of his or her impending departure this week, after former Speaker Dennis Hastert of Illinois and Ohio's Deborah Pryce.

"It is not surprising House Republicans are disenchanted and calling it quits given their Party’s record of obstructing progress on key American priorities and rubberstamping George Bush’s endless war in Iraq," Doug Thornell, a spokesperson for the DCCC, told Election Central.

Fun historical footnote: Pickering also had a brief cameo in the movie Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan, in which he attended a Pentecostal gathering where speeches were made against secularism and the teaching of evolution.

Why, oh why, is Karl Rove attacking Hillary?

With their skirmish dragging into a second day today after Rove attacked her again on the Rush Limbaugh show as unelectable, using some cooked political stats to do so, the question is a hotly debated one in political circles today.

One political analyst claims Rove's broadside is part of an ingenious GOP plot to help Hillary win the nomination so that the GOP base is more united in 2008. Marc Ambinder, meanwhile, theorizes it's because Rove is trying to pressure GOPers to start getting serious about attacking her.

The Obama camp says her battle with Rove proves she's polarizing and would be less able to unite people than Obama is. The Hillary campaign, meanwhile, is claiming publicly that Rove really fears her as the most formidable Dem nominee and is trying to drag her down before it's too late. Hillary herself has been saying that she's thrilled to be getting under Rove's skin.

Still other Hillary advisers, however, are whispering anonymously to the Associated Press that they're terrified that these Rovian attacks will drive up her negatives.

Ooooooooo, scary! We never underestimate the capacity of Dems to be skittish. But come on. A man who squandered sky-high Presidential approval ratings post-9/11 to preside over what may be the largest downswing in Presidential popularity ever, who fumbled control of both Houses of Congress, whose boss is routinely described as the worst President in American history, who decimated the percentages of self-identified Republicans, and who himself has an approval rating in the low 20s...is saying mean things that are going to drive up her negatives! How terrifying!

Really, now. Maybe one or more of these theories is right. But here's a simpler explanation. Maybe Rove is just doing this for himself. Maybe Rove is just playing to his audience, playing a little Pied Piper tune for GOPers so they'll momentarily forget how furious they are with him for screwing everything up so badly. You know, go on Rush Limbaugh and bash Hillary -- surefire way to get the rubes to forget what a catastrophic joke you've been.

Wow. Maybe this is the reason that the White House now wants General Petraeus to give his September Iraq progress report in a private briefing: People don't trust him to tell them the truth.

CNN just reported that a new poll by the network finds that a majority doesn't trust Petraeus to give them an accurate assessment of what's happening on the ground in Iraq.

When asked if they trust the top U.S. Commander in Iraq to report "what's really going on," a surprising 53% answer "no." Only 43% say they trust him to tell us the real deal on the war.

Another key result: a huge majority claims that whatever he says about Iraq in September, it won't change their minds about the war. Only 28% say a positive assessment will make them more likely to support the war, while the number who say it won't is a staggering seventy two percent.

GOP Rep. Thelma Drake of Virginia has just returned from a bipartisan trip to Iraq — and her first-hand view of the war has left her with an interesting perspective. Not only is the surge working, Drake says, but the Iraqi Parliament is doing a better job than the United States Congress.

Via Raising Kaine, from the Newport News Daily Press:

Iraqi lawmakers, she said, "have passed and signed into law more legislation than we have this year."

While progress may be slow, Drake said, when compared to promises made by Democrats in Congress, "They probably have a better track record."

One of Drake's companions on the trip, Democratic Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky of Illinois, had a very different perspective on things. "I believe overall the surge is a failure," said Schakowsky. "What I came away with was that Iraq was a huge distraction from the real war on terror."

The Daily Press asked Drake how two members of Congress could walk away from the same trip with such different opinions. Drake's response: "Maybe people see what they want to see." Indeed.

Incidentally, Drake was narrowly re-elected in 2006 by the very tight margin of 51%-49%.

Harry Reid opens fire on the White House in a new statement, faulting the administration over the report in the Washington Post today saying that the White House is proposing that General Petraeus' September testimony on Iraq be conducted in a private briefing:

"The White House's effort to prevent General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker from testifying openly and candidly before Congress about the situation in Iraq is unacceptable. Not only does it contradict the law President Bush himself signed in May, but it appears to be yet another politically driven attempt to avoid giving Congress and the American people an honest and open assessment of a war we can all see is headed in the wrong direction.

"From the very beginning of this war, the Bush Administration has refused to level with the American people about its flawed policy. It has instead done everything in its power to escape accountability and mislead us about the reality on the ground. The result: an open-ended civil war that has taken nearly 4,000 American soldiers' lives and an Iraqi government that refuses to take responsibility for its own country.

"If the President is going to continue to ask American soldiers to fight in this civil war, ask taxpayers to spend $10 billion each month to fund this war and ask the American people for patience as he conducts this war, then those closest to the situation on the ground must give Congress and the American people a frank and honest account of this war free of White House political spin."

Look, the White House's game plan here seems obvious. The idea seems to be to control the actual "Petraeus report" by, well, writing it, while simultaneously trying to prevent Petraeus' testimony under Congressional questioning from being public, because it's unpredictable and can't be controlled.

Relatedly, is it just me, or have Dem Congressional leaders been less vocal than you'd expect, given that there's an intense public opinion war going on right now in advance of Petraeus' reevaluation of the war? The White House and its allies certainly haven't been quiet about it, aggressively arguing in every conceivable forum that the surge is starting to succeed and that "even war critics" agree with this. One hopes that this Reid effort signals an aggressive Dem effort going forward to link the administration's lack of credibility on Iraq to current White House efforts to control the message we'll be hearing in September -- and hence, to cast doubt on the September report itself.

Here's a new antiwar ad from Americans Against Escalation that will run next week, targeting GOP Senator Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, as well as airing in the districts of GOP Reps. English, Upton and Drake. Here's the version of the ad hitting McConnell:

The idea seems to be to target young voters by highlighting talk of a possible "draft" due to the Iraq War's overstretching of our military. It's set to run next week in college towns on MTV, ESPN and networks.

This campaign -- and another similar one by the DCCC, which is also targeting vulnerable GOP House incumbents -- are part of what is shaping up as an intense summer battle over public opinion in advance of the September release of the Bush administration's progress report on Iraq.

The White House and its allies, with the help of that infamous pro-surge Op-ed by Michael O'Hanlon and Kenneth Pollack, have been pushing hard to persuade the public that they believe that the surge is working. The pushback is that the surge is failing and that GOP members of Congress should do what the American people want them to do, which is vote for measures that will force Bush to end the war.

So it looks like a voter finally asked Rudy the nagging question: Why should we vote for you if your own kids don't like you? CNN captures the moment:

Answering questions at a town-hall meeting, Giuliani was asked why he should expect loyalty from GOP voters when his children aren't backing him.

"I love my family very, very much and will do anything for them. There are complexities in every family in America," Giuliani said calmly and quietly. "The best thing I can say is kind of, 'leave my family alone, just like I'll leave your family alone.'"

Of course, Rudy wouldn't exactly be leaving people's families alone if elected President. Presuming he'd continue the Iraq War, he'd actually be asking families to risk making the ultimate sacrifice.

In related news, it looks like Joe Biden's son could soon be deployed to Iraq.

John Edwards is issuing a challenge to his own party, demanding that all of the Democratic party committees stop taking lobbyists money — and demanding that Obama join him in this challenge to the Dems.

In a conference call just now with reporters, Edwards advisers announced that they are sending a letter to the other Dem candidates and to the DNC, the DCCC and DSCC, calling upon everyone to stop taking lobbyist money.

And here's the fun part: First, they're sending the letter to Barack Obama, who has made his refusal to take lobbyist money a feature of his presidential campaign, and asking him to co-sign.

"We're hoping that he's going to join us in making this call to the party," Edwards deputy campaign manager Jonathan Prince told reporters on the call.

Read more »

A new poll released by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee finds that Senator Norm Coleman (R-MN), on the the Senate's premier WINO's on Iraq (Waverer In Name Only), has some pretty weak re-elect and approval numbers.

According to the poll, only 37% of Minnesotans would vote to re-elect Coleman, versus 49% who say they would vote for someone new. Only 41% says he is doing an excellent or good job, compared to 58% who say his performance is fair or poor.

As we've noted before, Coleman's ratings have been slipping, possibly due to the fact that he has yet to actually vote against the Bush Administration's policies on Iraq. And as for Bush's popularity in Minnesota — he's at 24% excellent/good, compared to 76% fair/poor.

Two Democrats are waging significant campaigns for the nomination to face Coleman: Al Franken and trial lawyer Mike Ciresi, who also ran for the nomination for Senate in 2000.

While the poll is admittedly done by a partisan firm, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, these numbers seem severe enough that they can't be good for the incumbent.

As he campaigns in Iowa, Rudy has just pulled a new foreign policy trick out of his hat: He's now pressing Iowa voters to demand that his rivals clarify their positions on Iran.

"American policy in regards to Iran should be crystal clear and it would be if I were president," Rudy told an Iowa crowd.

What is Rudy's Iran policy? Well, he expounded on it in some detail in Foreign Affairs: "The theocrats ruling Iran need to understand that we can wield the stick as well as the carrot, by undermining popular support for their regime, damaging the Iranian economy, weakening Iran’s military, and, should all else fail, destroying its nuclear infrastructure."

This and other foreign prescriptions from Giuliani have attracted some ridicule, but as his challenge to Iowans shows, Rudy is confident that GOP primary voters won't find his foreign policy ideas objectionable at all.

CBS has just released some interesting new poll numbers suggesting that voters may be listening to the primary arguments being made by both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

The poll finds that 59% of voters think Hillary has "the right experience" to be President, versus only 29% who think that of Obama. The "experience" argument is a key one being advanced by Camp Hillary.

Meanwhile, the poll also finds that 61% think Obama would "try new ideas" to solve the country's problems, versus only 43% who think that of Hillary. Camp Obama has presented him as the race's true change agent.

Still, overall Hillary fares better in this poll. She's supported by 45% of the poll's respondents versus 25% for Obama -- and far more view her as electable to the Presidency, 62%-46%.

In another sign that national Dems are working overtime to expand the map of districts in play in 2008, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is pumping a robocall into the district of longtime Louisiana Rep. Richard Baker — even though his seat can arguably be seen as safe.

The call features the voice of Congresswoman Carolyn Kilpatrick (D-MI), talking about the Dem Congress' efforts to expand the SCHIP program that provides healthcare for children.

"But with over 91,000 Louisiana children without health insurance, I was shocked that Congressman Richard Baker voted against providing children access to health care they desperately deserve," Kilpatrick says. "Please call Richard Baker at 225-929-7711 and tell him it's time he put our children first."

Baker was first elected to the House in 1986, and has not faced a close re-election since 1998, when he won a 51%-49% race.

Democratic Candidates Play Up China Trade Issues

Democratic presidential candidates expressed strong dissatisfaction with China's policies on a variety of issues Wednesday while speaking at the Iowa Federation of Labor. Chris Dodd, who has called China "an adversary" because they take American manufacturing jobs, called for a suspension of imported toys and food due to health safety concerns. Both Chris Dodd and John Edwards accused China of currency manipulation, while Bill Richardson and Joe Biden advocate raising tariffs on Chinese imports as a penalty for what they consider unfair trading practices. Attacking China on trade plays well with labor groups, many of whom view the country as a negative economic force that lowers wages and labor standards while taking jobs previously held by Americans.

McConnell Resurrecting "Old Europe" Slur

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is now bringing back the term "Old Europe," which was popularized by Don Rumsfeld in 2002 and 2003 to attack countries such as France and Germany, which were not participating in the Iraq War. "I can tell you that in the Senate it seems as though the other side is still looking to Old Europe for answers," McConnell said in a speech yesterday at the Reagan Library. "In one of the great political ironies of our time, the new majority in Congress seems intent on taking America down the path of bigger government and higher taxes just as Europe is frantically trying to steer themselves away from it."

Poll: Bush And Congress Both Get Low Marks

A new Quinnipiac national poll has President Bush's approval rating at 29%, with 64% disapproval. Congress' rating is even worse, with 20% approval and 70% disapproval. Only 21% say the country is on the right track, versus 73% who say we are on the wrong track. And on the subject of Iraq, 55% want Congress to set a timetable for withdrawal — which was already attempted this past spring, but was vetoed by Bush.

Poll: Rudy Leads GOP In California, McCain Collapses

A new Field Poll shows Rudy Giuliani continuing to dominate the Republican primary in California, with 35% support. Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson are statistically tied for second, with 14% for Romney and 13% for Thompson. John McCain, meanwhile, has gone steeply downhill. In March, he had 24% support, but is now down to only 9%.

Poll: Thompson, Gore Lead In Michigan — Romnney Lags

A poll released on Tuesday by Lansing-based EPIC/MRA shows non-candidate Al Gore and undeclared candidate Fred Thompson leading their respective primaries in Michigan. Gore takes 36% of the Democratic vote to HIllary Clinton's 32% — technically a statistical dead heat — followed by Barack Obama at 16% and John Edwards at 8%. On the Republican side, Thompson has 22% of the vote, followed by Rudy Giuliani at 19%, John McCain at 16%, and Newt Gingrich at 15%. Mitt Romney, whose father George was governor of Michigan in the 1960's, has only 12%.

Thompson: September Entry Not Too Late

Fred Thompson said in a radio interview yesterday that early September — currently "in the neighborhood" of when he'll declare his candidacy — is not too late to officially get in the race. "Here you are earlier than a normal candidacy's declared with all the means of communications we have these days – the internet to the earned media to all the cable networks — to get your message out," Thompson said, asserting that such a date is earlier than usual. "And still people say it’s got to be earlier instead of later."

Huckabee Says Web Site And Fundraising Picking Up After Straw Poll

Mike Huckabee says that after his second-place finish at the Iowa Straw Poll, traffic to his Web site has picked up considerably — 30,000 hits per day, more than they previously got in a week — and fundraising is picking up as well. "The people who wouldn't even return our calls last week are calling us now ready to host fundraisers and get on board," Huckabee said, although he declined to say just how much money has come in since Saturday.

DCCC Seeks To Pressure GOP Veterans Into Retirement

Democratic Party strategists are running ads in two GOP congressional districts held by 20-year veterans of the House, seeking to convince them that retirement may be a better option than another election in a difficult political climate. The two Representatives are New Jersey's Jim Saxton and Florida's C.W. "Bill" Young. The ads highlight their opposition to Democratic efforts to expand health insurance coverage for children, which the President has threatened to veto.

"Gays For Giuliani" Pseudo-Ad To Air In South Carolina

This should be fun. The liberal creators of the "Gays For Gi