Obama To Limit Future Debate Participation
Barack Obama's campaign has sent out a memo signaling that they intend to only participate in DNC-sanctioned debates between now and December 10, plus two Iowa events already scheduled. "Unfortunately, we simply cannot run the kind of campaign we want and need to, engaging with voters in the early states and February 5 states, if our schedule is dictated by dozens of forums and debates," wrote advisor David Plouffe. "Ultimately, the one group left out of the current schedule is the voters and they are the ones who ask the toughest questions and most deserve to have those questions answered face to face."

Rudy Supports Bush's Social Security Plan
A very nice catch by Steve Benen: Buried deep in this Associated Press article is the news that Rudy Giuliani supports Bush's failed proposal to let people invest some of their Social Security taxes in private accounts, a proposal that went down to ignominious defeat. "I would have preferred, over my lifetime, if I could have invested some of that Social Security money myself," Rudy said. "I think I would have done much better than the government did."

Poll: Romney Ascending
A Gallup poll released last night shows Mitt Romney overtaking John McCain for third place among Republicans nationally, though it is still within the margin of error. The numbers: Giuliani 32%, Thompson 19%, Romney 14%, McCain 11%.

Arkansas Governor To Endorse Hillary
Governor Mike Beebe (D-AR) is expected to formally endorse Hillary Clinton, the former first lady of Arkansas, for president on Monday. Beebe was elected to his first term as governor last year, after serving a single term as state attorney general. This comes on the heels of a new poll showing Hillary Clinton easily beating both Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson in the state.

Bloomberg Again Rules Out Run For President
Dan Rather told Chris Matthews yesterday, in a taping for the Sunday morning Chris Matthews Show, that Mike Bloomberg ruled out a presidential campaign in a recent interview yet to air on HDNet. "In a direct answer to a direct question, would he run under any circumstances, he danced around a bit and finally said 'No,'" said Rather. "Furthermore, he said he wasn’t open to even considering running as a vice presidential candidate with anybody, and he wouldn’t take a place in anybody’s cabinet." On the other hand, Rather thinks Bloomberg might run against Democratic Governor Eliot Spitzer in 2010.

A Reminder: The Dems Debate Tomorrow Morning
Remember to tune into ABC tomorrow morning at 10 a.m. ET for a special edition of This Week with George Stephanopoulos, in which the Democratic presidential candidates will meet for a live debate from Des Moines, Iowa.

Okay, CNN has now picked up and aired the video we posted the other day of Rudy's speech in 1996. In it, Rudy declared that we will "never, ever" be able to totally control immigration -- a comment strikingly at odds with his current campaign vow to "end" illegal border-crossing for good.

The network also got a response to our video from the Giuliani campaign.

Unfortunately, however, CNN botched its report, letting the Rudy camp skate by with an explanation that was almost comically bogus. The network only played a tiny snippet of the Rudy speech, omitting the part of it that would have proven that the campaign's pushback is complete nonsense. As such, CNN's report is worth a look, because it signals a potential pitfall for the media in covering Rudy's latest ongoing exercise in immigration dissembling. Check it out:

Look, I greatly appreciate the pickup and the plug for the site, and it's good to see that CNN is paying attention to Rudy's immigration shenanigans. Nonetheless, this just won't do.

As you can see from the above video, the Rudy campaign's response here is that Rudy meant to say in his 1996 speech that we couldn't end immigration merely because we didn't have the technology to do it. And if you focus on the one sentence of the speech that CNN quoted, this is at least a somewhat plausible explanation. The Rudy quote CNN selected was this one:

"We're never, ever going to be able to totally control immigration to a country that is as large as ours."

Here, however, are the Rudy quotes from our video that CNN left out:

"We're never, ever going to be able to totally control immigration to a country that is as large as ours, that has borders that are as diverse as the borders of the United States, and as a society that wants to be a country that values freedom -- that values freedom of movement, freedom to do business.

"If you were to totally control immigration into the United States, if you were to totally control the flow of people in the United States, you might very well destroy the economy of the United States because you'd have to inspect everything and everyone in every way possible. I don't know that there's any technological way to totally control it. There's no doubt much better ways to get more of a reasonable degree of assurance about who's coming in, to get more control over it, you're never totally going to control it. So we just have to accept that if we want to be the kind of country that we are."

As you can see, in 1996 Rudy wasn't merely saying that totally controlling immigration was impossible; he was also explicitly saying that he thought that doing so was a bad idea, too. While he did allude to the technological aspect of the problem, he also very clearly said that devoting the resources necessary to totally halting immigration could "destroy the economy of the United States" and could even threaten our sense of ourselves as a society that "values freedom of movement, freedom to do business."

So, again, the crux of Rudy's view back then was that trying to totally control immigration was a bad idea -- something that again is strikingly at odds with his current stance, and something that is getting lost here.

The reason this matters is that this mumbo-jumbo about technology is emerging as Rudy's primary pushback on immigration right now. He even repeated it himself as a campaign stop on Thursday, and he'll certainly be repeating it again and again during his quest for the GOP nomination. So let's hope that reporters avoid getting snookered by Rudy's latest exercise in dissembling as we go forward.

A Reminder: The Dems Debate This Weekend

The Democratic candidates will meet for a debate Sunday morning on a special edition of ABC's This Week with George Stephanopoulos, live from Des Moines.

Fred Thompson Speaks (But Doesn't Declare) In Iowa

Fred Thompson spoke in Iowa today, his first visit to the state, skirting the awkward line between maintaining his undeclared status and trying to build up excitement for his forthcoming campaign. "I am unabashedly pro-life. I am pro-Second Amendment and I don’t apologize for the United States of America," Thompson told a crowd in Des Moines. According to The New York Times, Thompson carefully chose his words to reflect his non-candidate status, even as a voice from the crowd shouted "Hurry up and declare, already!"

Obama Calls For Reform Of Farm Subsidies

Speaking at an Iowa high school, Barack Obama today called for changing agricultural policy to eliminate subsidies for wealthy and corporate farms and instead target small farmers for federal aid. "While you’re working hard to strengthen your farms, your families, and your communities, our government is working for big agribusiness," Obama told the audience. "In the last decade, we’ve handed out $1.3 billion in federal farm money to people who aren’t even farmers. We’ve even got farm money going to Fortune 500 companies." John Edwards advocates similar reforms, and both specifically call for lowering the payment limit to 250,000 dollars per year.

Obama Camp Recruits High-Profile Legal Advisor

The Obama campaign has brought on former federal judge Eric Holder as a legal advisor. Holder served as an assistant attorney general during the Clinton years, and has spent the last six years in corporate. Notably, he is currently involved in the NFL's internal inquiry over the Michael Vick scandal. "Given Holder’s credentials," the Chicago Tribune speculates, "it isn’t outside the realm of possibility to suggest he could wind up the nation’s first African-American attorney general should Obama win the White House."

Heather Wilson Touring New Mexico — Is A Senate Run In The Works?

Courtesy of New Mexico FBIHOP, Congresswoman Heather Wilson (R-NM) has been touring areas of her state outside of her home district — seemingly an indication that she's planning a statewide run. It's possible that 75-year old GOP Senator Pete Domenici will retire, as he has been implicated in the U.S. Attorney scandal — Heather Wilson has also been the subject of similar accusations by former U.S. Attorney David Iglesias.

Kucinich: Solve Infrastructure Problems With New WPA

In an interview with the Boston Globe editorial board, Dennis Kucinich proposes solving unemployment and national infrastructure problems in one blow by bringing back the New Deal-era Works Progress Administration, which put people to work building roads, bridges, buildings and other projects. Kucinich declined to talk about Rosemary Palmer, who is running against him in the Democratic primary for his seat in Congress. Palmer is a former supporter of Kucinich who also lost a son in Iraq, and charges that the presidential candidate is ineffective in his normal job. "Let me be clear," Kucinich said. "I'm here to talk about my candidacy for president."

Former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL) officially announced today his retirement from the House in 2008, and prospective candidates are already lining up to make the race.

Republicans expected to get in: State Senator Chris Lauzen, Geneva Mayor Kevin Burns, and dairy businessman Jim Oberweis, who ran unsuccessfully for the Republican nominations for Senate in 2002 and 2004, and for governor in 2006. If Oberweis runs it could be entertaining indeed — his Senate campaigns were characterized by a Tancredoesque focus on illegal immigrants.

And on the Dem side? Dems appear to be lining up behind retired Fermilab scientist Bill Foster, who would be able to use his personal wealth to fund a healthy chunk of his campaign. The Democrats' original preferred candidate, state Representative Linda Chapa LaVia, has already said she won't run.

Bottom line: The GOP is favored to keep this suburban Chicago district, which voted 55%-44% for George W. Bush in 2004. However, Illinois Democrats might benefit from a coattail effect if Barack Obama were nominated for president, making the seat a potential pickup.

With three GOP members of the House announcing their retirement this week alone, political insiders are starting to ask whether a so-called "retirement wave" is building among House GOPers. The idea is that Republicans don't think their party has a shot at reclaiming their majority next year and are gloomily pondering their future in the minority.

So, are more retirements coming? Here's a useful overview of the whole situation, including a GOP retirement "watch list."

Update: Commenter Ron K points us to another retirement watch overview at Swing State Project. And here's SSP's comparison of the current state of play with 2006.

Via the USA Today blog, you absolutely need to check out the interview Mike Huckabee just gave NPR's new podcast show, The Bryant Park Project. It turns out the man is an admirer of ... the Clintons:

"You know, I've never hated the Clintons. I still don't, I have great respect for them. He made a lot of mistakes — a lot of personal ones — but you know something that I think should not be forgotten. There's two things about Bill Clinton I tell Republicans, it drives them nuts, but here it is.

"Number one, don't get it lost on you that a kid out of a very small, Southern rural state aspired to be President of the United States. This kid came from a dysfunctional family — alcoholic abusive father. And yet he didn't just aspire, he was elected president of the United States not once, but twice. That is an affirmation of the system. And it's a wonderful testament to give to every kid in America that no matter where you've come from, you've got an opportunity to do something extraordinary.

"The second thing, and this'll really wrangle, again, some of my Republican colleagues. Bill Clinton and Hillary went through some horrible experiences in their marriage, because of some of the reckless behavior that he has admitted he had. I'm not defending him on that — it's indefensible. But they kept their marriage together. And a lot of the Republicans who have condemned them, and who talk about their platform of family values, interestingly didn't keep their own families together."

Earlier this afternoon we asked Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's office for a reaction to our story earlier today, which reported that the House Foreign Affairs Committee is claiming that despite denials, the White House did in fact push for a closed-door Petraeus briefing.

Now Reid spokesman Jim Manley has emailed over the following response:

"Despite the fact that it is from the same crowd that gave us `mission accomplished,' today's news is stunning. It's absolutely outrageous to think that the White House would try to prevent General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker from testifying in public. What in the world can they be afraid of?"

A new round of polling from Rasmussen shows Hillary Clinton with a strong lead in the Florida primary, with 43% of the vote to Barack Obama's 24% and John Edwards 11%.

The poll's key finding, though, is the extent to which this lead is fueled by female voters: Half of Rasmussen's women respondents support Hillary, compared to only 18% for Obama and 12% for Edwards. Among men, Hillary and Obama are tied.

Meanwhile, on the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani continues to lead, while Fred Thompson might be in decline and Mitt Romney on the rise, as he is in other polls we've posted this week.

In the survey, Rudy has 30%, Thompson 17%, Romney 15% and John McCain 7%. A month ago, Rudy and Thompson were statistically tied for first, while Romney and McCain were competing for third.

"The argument is not that I'm pristine, because I'm swimming in the same muddy water. The argument is that I know it's muddy and I want to clean it up."

-- Barack Obama, explaining why it's not contradictory for him to be advocating for lobbying reform despite having committed the "original sin" of fundraising.

Looks like John Edwards is being hit with yet another story involving his personal wealth — only this time, he's trying to turn it into a political positive.

The Wall Street Journal reported today that Edwards had holdings in a subprime lender that was foreclosing on some Hurricane Katrina victims — a potentially damaging story, since helping Katrina victims has been a key initiative in Edwards anti-poverty platform.

Edwards' response? He's promising today to divest from the firms, and even pledging to help the victims financially himself.

"My reaction is I'm going to help these people," Edwards said in a phone interview with the Associated Press. "I just learned about this. I don't know the details, I will find out and I will find a way to help them."

Read more »

If you thought the mess over the primary schedule was bad already, then get a load of this: Both state parties in Michigan have agreed to pass legislation moving the state's primary up to January 15, practically guaranteeing that other contests will be held in 2007.

This means that the DNC and RNC will have an even worse headache on their hands than the one they faced from Florida moving to January 29, ahead of the officially sanctioned date of February 5. A January 15 date guarantees a New Hampshire primary no later than January 8 — which puts the Iowa caucus at New Year's Day at the latest, in order to be a week before New Hampshire, but more likely some time in December 2007.

Some other reshuffling of the primary schedule in recent days has made it likely that Iowa's contest would be moved into 2007, but if these latest machinations in Michigan go through, that would practically clinch it.

And things can only get worse from there, with the possibility of more states moving up their contests. At the rate we're going, the Iowa caucus might have already been held last week.

You may recall that GOP Rep. Bill Sali generated some controversy last week after he criticized the delivery of a Hindu opening prayer in the Senate and condemned the election of freshman Rep. Keith Ellison, the first Muslim to serve in Congress.

Sali took some heat for saying that the country has been able to survive so long because of "the protective hand of God" and that events such as Ellison's election and the Hindu prayer create "problems for the longevity of this country."

Well, Sali has now apologized to Ellison.

Sali spokesman Wayne Hoffman told McClatchy News that Sali was unable to apologize in person to Ellison, who is out of the country, but the two have had an e-mail exchange that Hoffman characterized as "very pleasant and cordial in nature."

"He was hopeful that Congressman Ellison understands he meant no disrespect or harm from his comment, and that he hoped that he would meet with him when he returned to Washington, D.C.," Hoffman said.

Ellison's camp appeared to be magnanimous about the whole thing. "People have a bad day, they choose poorly chosen words ... he just simply doesn't choose to take any of that personally," said Ellison spokesman Rick Jauert.

Amid a bitter skirmish between the White House and Dems yesterday over whether General Petraeus will testify publicly to Congress about Iraq, the Bush administration repeatedly claimed yesterday that the administration had never pushed for closed-door-only briefings for Petraeus.

But that claim is false, according to an on-the-record statement we've obtained from the office of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

Rather, the Bush administration did in fact push for limited private briefings for Petraus and U.S. ambassador Ryan Crocker, and even did so as far back as early July, according to the statement, which was provided to Election Central by Lynne Weille, the communications director for Foreign Affairs Committee chair Tom Lantos.

"Administration officials told senior Congressional staff in early July that they preferred to have Ambassador Crocker and General Petraeus testify in closed session before the entire House of Representatives, rather than in open hearings," Weille said in the statement, which constitutes the first on-the-record assertion by Dems that this happened.

The statement is striking, because any White House bid to limit the briefing suggests that the administration may have wanted to prevent the public from hearing Petraeus' views of Iraq straight from him directly. Petraeus will also share his views via input he'll give on a written report, but that will be written by the White House.

What's more, the statement appears to directly contradict assertions made yesterday by administration spokesperson Gordon Johndroe. Asked yesterday if the White House had pushed for closed-door-only briefings, Johndroe said, "No, no."

The statement also suggests that the White House may have been trying to circumvent a key legal requirement that was written into the Iraq supplemental bill passed this spring with White House support -- i.e., that Petraeus and Crocker testify publicly.

Read more »

Gallup has a new report out, detailing the flow of George W. Bush's approval ratings over the years, as well as the approval of the Republican Party. The short version: Things have gone badly.

Some more details:

Self-identification with the Republican Party is at 28.5%, down from a peak of 36.4% during the 2004 election. The current figure is around where it was in 1992 and 1993, when George H. W. Bush was defeated, and around 1999, when the GOP was at a low due to the impeachment of Bill Clinton.

Including leaners, the Democrats have an identification advantage of 50.5%-40.5% — again, about where things were in 1992 and 1999.

The average quarterly favorable ratings for the GOP are at 36%, a statistically insignificant improvement of one point since the end of 2006, when it was at 35%. That was the GOP's nadir since 9/11, when they soared to 61% favorable.

The Dems' quarterly favorables are much better, at 51% favorable.

President Bush's quarterly approval ratings are at 31.8%, his all-time low, and definitely a huge decline from his 85.7% approval after 9/11.

It turns out that Hillary Clinton is polling well in at least one Southern state — and extraordinarily well, at that.

According to a new Rasmussen poll of Arkansas, where Bill Clinton formerly served as governor and Hillary as first lady, Hillary holds a 55%-37% lead over Giuliani and a 55%-36% lead over Fred Thompson, a Southerner.

You frequently hear from the pundits that Hillary is too polarizing a figure to play well in the South. But it appears that in Arkansas, at least, there are enough fond memories of her and enough of a lingering nostalgia for the Clinton name, that she might just be able to count on those six electoral votes.

Former GOP House Speaker Dennis Hastert was set to announce his retirement today at a public event in his district -- but as it turns out, he already said this morning that he's retiring, in an appearance on a local talk radio show, the Sun Times reports.

Hastert's seat is likely to remain in GOP hands. However, it should be noted that he is one of three Republicans to have announced their retirements from the House this week, along Deborah Pryce of Ohio and Chip Pickering of Mississippi.

This trend may be a result of the widespread feeling among House republicans that they won't get their lost majority back in 2008, thus causing some members to look for opportunities other than serving in the minority.

Fred Thompson Makes First Visit To Iowa Today

With Tommy Thompson's campaign defunct, Fred refills the Thompson quota in Iowa today, making his first visit to the state. Thompson will make a variety of stops across the state in coming weeks, including the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines and local radio shows. He is reportedly planning on officially declaring his presidential campaign in September.

Poll: Edwards Leads In Iowa

A new poll by Democratic firm Peter D. Hart Research Associates, conducted on behalf of the anti-poverty ONE campaign, shows John Edwards leading the Dem field in Iowa with 30% of caucus-goers, followed by Hillary Clinton at 22%, Barack Obama with 18%, and Bill Richardson at 13%.

Poll: Hillary, Romney Lead In Nevada

A new Research 2000 poll finds Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney leading in their respective caucuses in Nevada. The Democratic numbers: Hillary 33%, Obama 19%, Edwards 15%, Richardson 11%. The Republicans: Romney 28%, Thompson 18%, Giuliani 18%, McCain 8%.

Poll: Hillary Has 30-Point Lead In California

A new Field Poll in California finds Hillary Clinton with 49% of the Democratic vote, followed by Barack Obama with a mere 19%, and John Edwards at 10%. Bill Richardson, who one might expect to appeal to the state's Latino demographic, has a paltry 3%, tied with Joe Biden.

Poll: McCain's Favorables Sink In Arizona

A new poll of Arizona by pollster Behavior Research Center finds John McCain's ratings have sunk in his home state to 42% favorable and 30% unfavorable, a decline from 49%-18% back in March. BRC President Jim Haynes attributed McCain's decline to a combination of factors, mainly the failed immigration bill and the Iraq War.

Mitt Romney Wins Straw Poll In Illinois

Mitt Romney was the winner of a straw poll conducted by the Illinois Republican Party, held yesterday at the state fair. Romney came in first with 40.35%, followed by Fred Thompson at 19.96%, and Ron Paul with 18.87%. Rudy Giuliani was fourth with 11.61%, and John McCain was a very distant fifth, at 4.12%.

Richardson Aide Resigns After Brothel Scandal

The summer of sex-for-money scandals continues, this time in the Bill Richardson camp, where a top Nevada organizer for Richardson's campaign left his post yesterday after it came out that he had worked in a brothel and faced felony charges in California for writing bad checks. The aide, Kristian Forland, said of his brothel role Thursday, "I oversaw the bookkeeping only. I never handled cash, I didn't deal with the girls per se." Richardson's campaign spokesman claimed that they were unaware of their aide's lurid past.

Congressman Gutierrez Un-Retires

Congressman Luis Gutierrez (D-IL) announced yesterday that he is rescinding his plans to retire, and will run for a ninth term in 2008. "In recent months, I have heard from my constituents, local elected officials and community leaders," Gutierrez said. "They asked me to reconsider my decision. I am humbled by their support and gratified by their kind words." Gutierrez had announced his plan to retire in 2008 way back in late 2005, and had confirmed those intentions as recently as March of 2007 — but the comforts of life in the majority might have helped change his mind.

This morning's New York Times reports that Rudy spent a total of 29 hours at Ground Zero in three months after the attacks.

So we thought it would be worthwhile to highlight these Rudy quotes from September of 2006:

"I spent as much time here as anyone...I was here five, six times a day for four months. I kind of thought of it as living here."

Twenty-nine hours.

That's the total amount of time Rudy Giuliani actually spent at Ground Zero in three months following the attacks, according to a report in this morning's New York Times.

Rudy, you'll recall, recently caused a huge controversy by saying he'd spent as much or more time at Ground Zero than "most" of the 9/11 recovery workers. These new revelations about his time at the site are almost certain to raise yet more questions about his efforts to run for President partly on his performance after 9/11 -- and to further enrage the firefighters, cops and rescue workers who despise him for those efforts and accuse him of falsely lionizing his own 9/11 performance.

The news is kind of buried in the Times piece, but it's big:

A complete record of Mr. Giuliani’s exposure to the site is not available for the chaotic six days after the attack, when he was a frequent visitor. But an exhaustively detailed account from his mayoral archive, revised after the events to account for last-minute changes on scheduled stops, does exist for the period of Sept. 17 to Dec. 16, 2001. It shows he was there for a total of 29 hours in those three months, often for short periods or to visit locations adjacent to the rubble. In that same period, many rescue and recovery workers put in daily 12-hour shifts.

That's roughly an average of 10 hours a month.

Meanwhile, Michael Palladino, president of the Detectives Endowment Association, tells The Times that most of his members averaged more than 400 hours at the site (though it's unclear what time period he's referring to). And John McDonnell, president of the Uniformed Fire Officers Association in New York, tells the paper that many of his members worked consecutive 12-hour shifts at the site for weeks.

The piece also sheds light on the type of work Rudy was doing at the site: "The 29 hours Mr. Giuliani spent at ground zero involved 41 appearances, mostly to give tours to other officials and foreign dignitaries. Many entries include meetings away from the site before the tour."

Those 29 hours at the site also include on-site interviews Rudy did with Oprah, and Barbara Walters, according to a chart accompanying the piece.

Not exactly digging through the rubble.

Interestingly, when the Giuliani campaign was asked to respond to these revelations, the campaign supplied the following statement from former Giuliani deputy Mayor and Rudy loyalist Joe Lhota:

“Hundreds of thousands of people around the country and the world saw Rudy Giuliani’s steadfast and determined leadership firsthand at a time when we needed it most,” the statement said. “In the days surrounding September 11th, the safety and health of all those involved in the search and recovery efforts was Mayor Giuliani’s No. 1 one priority. Make no mistake, it is the very same concern Mayor Giuliani continues to express today when it comes to all those who have made tremendous sacrifices at ground zero.”

No denial.

Meanwhile, here's the video of Rudy saying he'd spent as much or more time at the site than "most" of the workers, adding that he's "one of them":

Editor's Note: A similar version of this is posted over at The Horse's Mouth, because we're experiencing technical difficulties with this site.

Presidental Voting Could Start In 2007, After All

In the wake of the reshuffling of the Presidential primary calendar, New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner is giving further indications that the state primary will be held on a Tuesday, rather than a Saturday as some hoped, which would push the Iowa caucus into December 2007. "As far as I'm concerned, the primary is on a Tuesday," Gardiner said — though he did leave himself a small amount of wiggle room for an "extraordinary circumstance."

Petraeus To Offer Public Testimony About Iraq Progress, After All

Despite a report in today's Washington Post claiming that the White House wanted General Petraeus' testimony next month on Iraq to be done in a private briefing to Congress, the White House is saying today that he will testify publicly, after all. "General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker will testify to the Congress in both open as well as closed sessions prior to the September 15th report," a White House spokesperson said today. Some in Congress, however, still wonder whether that was always the White House plan.

Romney Calls For Automatic Minimum Wage Adjustments

Mitt Romney today told a South Carolina crowd that he supported indexing the minimum wage to economic benchmarks, such as inflation and unemployment, a position at odds with many pro-business conservatives. "I do like the idea of getting the political debate out and I like the idea of not having the huge jumps as we do now," Romney said, referring to the recent increase in the minimum wage to $7.25 in 2009. Critics of wage indexation argue that it contributes to a continuous cycle of higher inflation.

Controversial Voting Technology Company Diebold Unable To Sell Product

Diebold, the controversial electronic voting equipment company, has found it difficult to sell its product amid questions of how secure its technologies are against voter fraud. The company reported that it had significantly reduced its revenue projections due to "the rapidly evolving political uncertainties and controversies surrounding state and jurisdiction purchases of electronic voting systems." Diebold became a household name in 2004, when critics wondered whether its owner, Wally O'Dell, a Republican fundraiser, could be trusted to ensure fair elections.

Poll: New Jerseyans Cool On Another Term For Lautenberg

A Rutgers-Eagleton poll gives New Jersey Republicans some small hope in taking down Dem Senator Frank Lautenberg next year. Only 24% of New Jerseyans say they would vote to re-elect Lautenberg, compared to 61% who say it is time for a change. The driving force seems to be age — Lautenberg will be 84 in 2008, and 90 in 2014 when a new term would end — and 64% believe Lautenberg would not be able to serve effectively. On the other hand, Lautenberg may be able to make up for this by waging a vigorous campaign, and state voters have an historic pattern of distrusting even the politicians that they re-elect.

Richardson Expanding Nevada Operation As Edwards Scales Down

Bill Richardson's campaign is expanding their staff presence in Nevada, after John Edwards' campaign announced that they are shifting staffers to Iowa in the wake of changes to the primary and caucus dates by New Hampshire and Iowa. Richardson's camp, however, sees an opportunity to fill in a vacuum in the first Western caucus. "Though other campaigns may waver, I remain committed to campaigning in Nevada," Richardson said in a statement.

Democrats Seek to Defeat Plan to Change California Electoral Law

Democrats are rallying to put in place the organization to defeat a ballot proposal from a Republican lawyer that would divide California's electoral votes by district, thus making a national Democratic presidential victory in 2008 all but impossible. Hollywood producer Steve Bing and investor Tom Steyer are forming a political committee, backed by Sens. Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and other prominent Democrats, that will raise money to combat the proposal. In a joint statement, Sens. Feinsten and Boxer derided the Republican effort as a "power grab" and "another cynical move to keep the presidency in Republican control."

And another one drops: Congressman Charles "Chip" Pickering, Jr. (R-MS), is expected to announce his retirement from the House.

First elected in 1996, Pickering was a safe bet for re-election, with a large campaign chest stored up, and would likely have been the GOP nominee if GOP Senator Thad Cochran were to retire. However, the increasing view that Cochran will be running again probably spurred Pickering's retirement, rather than continue in the House minority.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee gleefully took note of the retirement, the third GOP member of the House to let word slip of his or her impending departure this week, after former Speaker Dennis Hastert of Illinois and Ohio's Deborah Pryce.

"It is not surprising House Republicans are disenchanted and calling it quits given their Party’s record of obstructing progress on key American priorities and rubberstamping George Bush’s endless war in Iraq," Doug Thornell, a spokesperson for the DCCC, told Election Central.

Fun historical footnote: Pickering also had a brief cameo in the movie Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan, in which he attended a Pentecostal gathering where speeches were made against secularism and the teaching of evolution.

Why, oh why, is Karl Rove attacking Hillary?

With their skirmish dragging into a second day today after Rove attacked her again on the Rush Limbaugh show as unelectable, using some cooked political stats to do so, the question is a hotly debated one in political circles today.

One political analyst claims Rove's broadside is part of an ingenious GOP plot to help Hillary win the nomination so that the GOP base is more united in 2008. Marc Ambinder, meanwhile, theorizes it's because Rove is trying to pressure GOPers to start getting serious about attacking her.

The Obama camp says her battle with Rove proves she's polarizing and would be less able to unite people than Obama is. The Hillary campaign, meanwhile, is claiming publicly that Rove really fears her as the most formidable Dem nominee and is trying to drag her down before it's too late. Hillary herself has been saying that she's thrilled to be getting under Rove's skin.

Still other Hillary advisers, however, are whispering anonymously to the Associated Press that they're terrified that these Rovian attacks will drive up her negatives.

Ooooooooo, scary! We never underestimate the capacity of Dems to be skittish. But come on. A man who squandered sky-high Presidential approval ratings post-9/11 to preside over what may be the largest downswing in Presidential popularity ever, who fumbled control of both Houses of Congress, whose boss is routinely described as the worst President in American history, who decimated the percentages of self-identified Republicans, and who himself has an approval rating in the low 20s...is saying mean things that are going to drive up her negatives! How terrifying!

Really, now. Maybe one or more of these theories is right. But here's a simpler explanation. Maybe Rove is just doing this for himself. Maybe Rove is just playing to his audience, playing a little Pied Piper tune for GOPers so they'll momentarily forget how furious they are with him for screwing everything up so badly. You know, go on Rush Limbaugh and bash Hillary -- surefire way to get the rubes to forget what a catastrophic joke you've been.

Wow. Maybe this is the reason that the White House now wants General Petraeus to give his September Iraq progress report in a private briefing: People don't trust him to tell them the truth.

CNN just reported that a new poll by the network finds that a majority doesn't trust Petraeus to give them an accurate assessment of what's happening on the ground in Iraq.

When asked if they trust the top U.S. Commander in Iraq to report "what's really going on," a surprising 53% answer "no." Only 43% say they trust him to tell us the real deal on the war.

Another key result: a huge majority claims that whatever he says about Iraq in September, it won't change their minds about the war. Only 28% say a positive assessment will make them more likely to support the war, while the number who say it won't is a staggering seventy two percent.

GOP Rep. Thelma Drake of Virginia has just returned from a bipartisan trip to Iraq — and her first-hand view of the war has left her with an interesting perspective. Not only is the surge working, Drake says, but the Iraqi Parliament is doing a better job than the United States Congress.

Via Raising Kaine, from the Newport News Daily Press:

Iraqi lawmakers, she said, "have passed and signed into law more legislation than we have this year."

While progress may be slow, Drake said, when compared to promises made by Democrats in Congress, "They probably have a better track record."

One of Drake's companions on the trip, Democratic Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky of Illinois, had a very different perspective on things. "I believe overall the surge is a failure," said Schakowsky. "What I came away with was that Iraq was a huge distraction from the real war on terror."

The Daily Press asked Drake how two members of Congress could walk away from the same trip with such different opinions. Drake's response: "Maybe people see what they want to see." Indeed.

Incidentally, Drake was narrowly re-elected in 2006 by the very tight margin of 51%-49%.

Harry Reid opens fire on the White House in a new statement, faulting the administration over the report in the Washington Post today saying that the White House is proposing that General Petraeus' September testimony on Iraq be conducted in a private briefing:

"The White House's effort to prevent General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker from testifying openly and candidly before Congress about the situation in Iraq is unacceptable. Not only does it contradict the law President Bush himself signed in May, but it appears to be yet another politically driven attempt to avoid giving Congress and the American people an honest and open assessment of a war we can all see is headed in the wrong direction.

"From the very beginning of this war, the Bush Administration has refused to level with the American people about its flawed policy. It has instead done everything in its power to escape accountability and mislead us about the reality on the ground. The result: an open-ended civil war that has taken nearly 4,000 American soldiers' lives and an Iraqi government that refuses to take responsibility for its own country.

"If the President is going to continue to ask American soldiers to fight in this civil war, ask taxpayers to spend $10 billion each month to fund this war and ask the American people for patience as he conducts this war, then those closest to the situation on the ground must give Congress and the American people a frank and honest account of this war free of White House political spin."

Look, the White House's game plan here seems obvious. The idea seems to be to control the actual "Petraeus report" by, well, writing it, while simultaneously trying to prevent Petraeus' testimony under Congressional questioning from being public, because it's unpredictable and can't be controlled.

Relatedly, is it just me, or have Dem Congressional leaders been less vocal than you'd expect, given that there's an intense public opinion war going on right now in advance of Petraeus' reevaluation of the war? The White House and its allies certainly haven't been quiet about it, aggressively arguing in every conceivable forum that the surge is starting to succeed and that "even war critics" agree with this. One hopes that this Reid effort signals an aggressive Dem effort going forward to link the administration's lack of credibility on Iraq to current White House efforts to control the message we'll be hearing in September -- and hence, to cast doubt on the September report itself.

Here's a new antiwar ad from Americans Against Escalation that will run next week, targeting GOP Senator Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, as well as airing in the districts of GOP Reps. English, Upton and Drake. Here's the version of the ad hitting McConnell:

The idea seems to be to target young voters by highlighting talk of a possible "draft" due to the Iraq War's overstretching of our military. It's set to run next week in college towns on MTV, ESPN and networks.

This campaign -- and another similar one by the DCCC, which is also targeting vulnerable GOP House incumbents -- are part of what is shaping up as an intense summer battle over public opinion in advance of the September release of the Bush administration's progress report on Iraq.

The White House and its allies, with the help of that infamous pro-surge Op-ed by Michael O'Hanlon and Kenneth Pollack, have been pushing hard to persuade the public that they believe that the surge is working. The pushback is that the surge is failing and that GOP members of Congress should do what the American people want them to do, which is vote for measures that will force Bush to end the war.

So it looks like a voter finally asked Rudy the nagging question: Why should we vote for you if your own kids don't like you? CNN captures the moment:

Answering questions at a town-hall meeting, Giuliani was asked why he should expect loyalty from GOP voters when his children aren't backing him.

"I love my family very, very much and will do anything for them. There are complexities in every family in America," Giuliani said calmly and quietly. "The best thing I can say is kind of, 'leave my family alone, just like I'll leave your family alone.'"

Of course, Rudy wouldn't exactly be leaving people's families alone if elected President. Presuming he'd continue the Iraq War, he'd actually be asking families to risk making the ultimate sacrifice.

In related news, it looks like Joe Biden's son could soon be deployed to Iraq.

John Edwards is issuing a challenge to his own party, demanding that all of the Democratic party committees stop taking lobbyists money — and demanding that Obama join him in this challenge to the Dems.

In a conference call just now with reporters, Edwards advisers announced that they are sending a letter to the other Dem candidates and to the DNC, the DCCC and DSCC, calling upon everyone to stop taking lobbyist money.

And here's the fun part: First, they're sending the letter to Barack Obama, who has made his refusal to take lobbyist money a feature of his presidential campaign, and asking him to co-sign.

"We're hoping that he's going to join us in making this call to the party," Edwards deputy campaign manager Jonathan Prince told reporters on the call.

Read more »

A new poll released by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee finds that Senator Norm Coleman (R-MN), on the the Senate's premier WINO's on Iraq (Waverer In Name Only), has some pretty weak re-elect and approval numbers.

According to the poll, only 37% of Minnesotans would vote to re-elect Coleman, versus 49% who say they would vote for someone new. Only 41% says he is doing an excellent or good job, compared to 58% who say his performance is fair or poor.

As we've noted before, Coleman's ratings have been slipping, possibly due to the fact that he has yet to actually vote against the Bush Administration's policies on Iraq. And as for Bush's popularity in Minnesota — he's at 24% excellent/good, compared to 76% fair/poor.

Two Democrats are waging significant campaigns for the nomination to face Coleman: Al Franken and trial lawyer Mike Ciresi, who also ran for the nomination for Senate in 2000.

While the poll is admittedly done by a partisan firm, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, these numbers seem severe enough that they can't be good for the incumbent.

As he campaigns in Iowa, Rudy has just pulled a new foreign policy trick out of his hat: He's now pressing Iowa voters to demand that his rivals clarify their positions on Iran.

"American policy in regards to Iran should be crystal clear and it would be if I were president," Rudy told an Iowa crowd.

What is Rudy's Iran policy? Well, he expounded on it in some detail in Foreign Affairs: "The theocrats ruling Iran need to understand that we can wield the stick as well as the carrot, by undermining popular support for their regime, damaging the Iranian economy, weakening Iran’s military, and, should all else fail, destroying its nuclear infrastructure."

This and other foreign prescriptions from Giuliani have attracted some ridicule, but as his challenge to Iowans shows, Rudy is confident that GOP primary voters won't find his foreign policy ideas objectionable at all.

CBS has just released some interesting new poll numbers suggesting that voters may be listening to the primary arguments being made by both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

The poll finds that 59% of voters think Hillary has "the right experience" to be President, versus only 29% who think that of Obama. The "experience" argument is a key one being advanced by Camp Hillary.

Meanwhile, the poll also finds that 61% think Obama would "try new ideas" to solve the country's problems, versus only 43% who think that of Hillary. Camp Obama has presented him as the race's true change agent.

Still, overall Hillary fares better in this poll. She's supported by 45% of the poll's respondents versus 25% for Obama -- and far more view her as electable to the Presidency, 62%-46%.

In another sign that national Dems are working overtime to expand the map of districts in play in 2008, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is pumping a robocall into the district of longtime Louisiana Rep. Richard Baker — even though his seat can arguably be seen as safe.

The call features the voice of Congresswoman Carolyn Kilpatrick (D-MI), talking about the Dem Congress' efforts to expand the SCHIP program that provides healthcare for children.

"But with over 91,000 Louisiana children without health insurance, I was shocked that Congressman Richard Baker voted against providing children access to health care they desperately deserve," Kilpatrick says. "Please call Richard Baker at 225-929-7711 and tell him it's time he put our children first."

Baker was first elected to the House in 1986, and has not faced a close re-election since 1998, when he won a 51%-49% race.

Democratic Candidates Play Up China Trade Issues

Democratic presidential candidates expressed strong dissatisfaction with China's policies on a variety of issues Wednesday while speaking at the Iowa Federation of Labor. Chris Dodd, who has called China "an adversary" because they take American manufacturing jobs, called for a suspension of imported toys and food due to health safety concerns. Both Chris Dodd and John Edwards accused China of currency manipulation, while Bill Richardson and Joe Biden advocate raising tariffs on Chinese imports as a penalty for what they consider unfair trading practices. Attacking China on trade plays well with labor groups, many of whom view the country as a negative economic force that lowers wages and labor standards while taking jobs previously held by Americans.

McConnell Resurrecting "Old Europe" Slur

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is now bringing back the term "Old Europe," which was popularized by Don Rumsfeld in 2002 and 2003 to attack countries such as France and Germany, which were not participating in the Iraq War. "I can tell you that in the Senate it seems as though the other side is still looking to Old Europe for answers," McConnell said in a speech yesterday at the Reagan Library. "In one of the great political ironies of our time, the new majority in Congress seems intent on taking America down the path of bigger government and higher taxes just as Europe is frantically trying to steer themselves away from it."

Poll: Bush And Congress Both Get Low Marks

A new Quinnipiac national poll has President Bush's approval rating at 29%, with 64% disapproval. Congress' rating is even worse, with 20% approval and 70% disapproval. Only 21% say the country is on the right track, versus 73% who say we are on the wrong track. And on the subject of Iraq, 55% want Congress to set a timetable for withdrawal — which was already attempted this past spring, but was vetoed by Bush.

Poll: Rudy Leads GOP In California, McCain Collapses

A new Field Poll shows Rudy Giuliani continuing to dominate the Republican primary in California, with 35% support. Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson are statistically tied for second, with 14% for Romney and 13% for Thompson. John McCain, meanwhile, has gone steeply downhill. In March, he had 24% support, but is now down to only 9%.

Poll: Thompson, Gore Lead In Michigan — Romnney Lags

A poll released on Tuesday by Lansing-based EPIC/MRA shows non-candidate Al Gore and undeclared candidate Fred Thompson leading their respective primaries in Michigan. Gore takes 36% of the Democratic vote to HIllary Clinton's 32% — technically a statistical dead heat — followed by Barack Obama at 16% and John Edwards at 8%. On the Republican side, Thompson has 22% of the vote, followed by Rudy Giuliani at 19%, John McCain at 16%, and Newt Gingrich at 15%. Mitt Romney, whose father George was governor of Michigan in the 1960's, has only 12%.

Thompson: September Entry Not Too Late

Fred Thompson said in a radio interview yesterday that early September — currently "in the neighborhood" of when he'll declare his candidacy — is not too late to officially get in the race. "Here you are earlier than a normal candidacy's declared with all the means of communications we have these days – the internet to the earned media to all the cable networks — to get your message out," Thompson said, asserting that such a date is earlier than usual. "And still people say it’s got to be earlier instead of later."

Huckabee Says Web Site And Fundraising Picking Up After Straw Poll

Mike Huckabee says that after his second-place finish at the Iowa Straw Poll, traffic to his Web site has picked up considerably — 30,000 hits per day, more than they previously got in a week — and fundraising is picking up as well. "The people who wouldn't even return our calls last week are calling us now ready to host fundraisers and get on board," Huckabee said, although he declined to say just how much money has come in since Saturday.

DCCC Seeks To Pressure GOP Veterans Into Retirement

Democratic Party strategists are running ads in two GOP congressional districts held by 20-year veterans of the House, seeking to convince them that retirement may be a better option than another election in a difficult political climate. The two Representatives are New Jersey's Jim Saxton and Florida's C.W. "Bill" Young. The ads highlight their opposition to Democratic efforts to expand health insurance coverage for children, which the President has threatened to veto.

"Gays For Giuliani" Pseudo-Ad To Air In South Carolina

This should be fun. The liberal creators of the "Gays For Giuliani" YouTube video have announced that they will air a 30-second version of the spot in South Carolina. The ad features effeminate caricatures of gay men praising Rudy's record as mayor of New York City. This ad probably won't go over so well with South Carolina conservatives.

Poll: Hillary, Rudy Enjoy Leads In Florida

A new poll from GOP firm Strategic Vision shows Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani continuing to dominate their respective primary fields in Florida. On the Democratic side: Hillary 40%, Obama 20%, Edwards 16%, Richardson 9%. Among Republicans: Rudy 34%, Thompson 18%, Romney 10%, McCain 8%.

New Giuliani Ad Emphasizes Candidate's (New) Position On Immigration

Rudy Giuliani began running a new radio ad today, entitled "Fence" in which the candidate argues for a tough stance on illegal immigration. "You stop illegal immigration by building a fence, a physical fence and then a technological fence," Giuliani says in the ad. Rudy's immigration record as mayor of New York has drawn criticism from Mitt Romney. The Giuliani campaign has worked in recent days to shore up his border bona-fides in response, including a pledge that "We can end illegal immigration" that marks a radical departure from Giuliani's earlier views on the subject.

Iraq War Veteran Paul Hackett Claims Dennis Kucinich Criticized His Service

Wow — this one is a pretty breathtaking accusation even for a fringe candidate. Paul Hackett, who served in Iraq and gained national attention when he ran for Congress in Ohio in 2005 against now-Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-OH), told reporters today that after he won the Democratic primary, Dennis Kucinich told him over the phone, "I would rather see Jean Schmidt get elected to Ohio's 2nd Congressional District than you. Because you are wrong on Iraq, you fought in Iraq, you're a Democrat in name only." Kucinich's office released a statement that did not expressly deny the accusation: "Congressman Kucinich thanks Mr. Hackett for his service to our country. Congressman Kucinich will continue to fight for and represent the people who elected him to office — the residents of the 10th Congressional district."

Fred Thompson Reaches Out To "Fair Tax" Crowd

Fred Thompson has written a letter to the chairman of Americans for Fair Taxation, which advocates replacing the current federal tax code with a national sales tax. "Congress must begin a serious consideration of real fundamental tax reform, rather than nibbling around the edges," Thompson wrote. "I think the principles and ideas found in the Fair Tax are a good place to start, particularly given the grassroots support it enjoys across the country."

Romney's Blind Trust Found Investing In Embryonic Stem-Cell Research

Mitt Romney has said he did not know that his assets, which have been held and administered in a blind trust since he was elected governor of Massachusetts in 2002, included investments in two companies doing embryonic stem-cell research, which Romney opposes. Romney also signaled that these investments will be changed. "The trustee of the blind trust has said publicly that he will endeavor to make my investments conform with my positions, and I am confident that he will," Romney said.

Chris Dodd Calls For Suspension of Chinese Imports

With millions of Chinese manufactured toys being recalled due to safety concerns, Senator Chris Dodd called for an import ban today to protect consumers from unsafe products. "This is an issue of safety," Dodd said while addressing the Iowa Federation of Labor. "Parents should be confident that the toys and food that they give their children have been inspected and are safe. That's why I am calling on the President to use his authority to immediately suspend all imports of toys and food from China."

Read more »

GOP Rep. Deborah Pryce, who won reelection by just over 1,000 votes last year, will announce tomorrow that she's decided against seeking reelection in 2008, according to reports in the local Ohio press.

The Columbus Dispatch, citing Republican sources, reports today that Pryce concluded that it had become too daunting to raise a daughter in Ohio with her schedule in Washington. But also weighing on her mind might have been the fact that last year's opponent, Mary Joe Kilroy, is challenging her again with aggressive backing from national Dems.

Indeed, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Doug Thornell sent Election Central the following statement:

With yet another open seat to defend, this is a significant blow to National Republicans already burdened with a record of standing with George Bush at the expense of a new direction in Iraq and change here in America. Mary Jo Kilroy came within a 1055 votes of winning last cycle and we expect this race to provide us with a tremendous opportunity to strengthen our majority.

Meanwhile, Columbus-based Democratic consultant Dale Butland tells Roll Call that another grueling contest against Kilroy likely tipped Pryce's decision.

“The prospect of another grueling race certain tends to concentrate the mind and I think that given the fact that President Bush’s popularity is even lower than it was when she barely squeaked by before, I think made her realize that this was going to be a very difficult uphill fight,” Butland said.

More from the Dispatch on potential Republican candidates for the race here.

“After years of slogans and soundbites Americans deserve an even-handed assessment of conditions in Iraq. Sadly, we will only receive a snapshot from the same people who told us the mission was accomplished and the insurgency was in its last throes. We’ve spent hundreds of billions of dollars and lost thousands of lives in Iraq. An honest report from our generals and diplomats about the status of the war isn’t too much to ask.”

-- Rahm Emanuel, in a statement just sent out blasting the White House over the news that the Bush administration will have a heavy hand in writing the September Iraq progress report that was supposed to represent the word of General Petraeus.

The battle between Hillary and Obama is getting more bare-knuckled by the day. Here's the latest from Camp Hillary:

"It sounds like Karl Rove is writing Senator Obama's talking points," said Clinton spokesman Phil Singer. "The reality is that as the campaign now gets under way, Senator Clinton's ratings are improving because Americans are seeing that she has the strength and experience to deliver change."

The Clinton camp's blast was apparently a response to an interview Obama gave to The Washington Post, in which he attacked Hillary as follows:

"I think it is fair to say that I believe I can bring the country together more effectively than she can," Obama said. "I will add, by the way, that is not entirely a problem of her making. Some of those battles in the '90s that she went through were the result of some pretty unfair attacks on the Clintons. But that history exists, and so, yes, I believe I can bring the country together in a way she cannot do. If I didn't believe that, I wouldn't be running."

The Clinton camp is arguing that Obama's criticism of her is similar to what Rove is saying about her. Explaining why he thinks Hillary is a "fatally flawed candidate," Rove said the following:

"There is no candidate on record, a front-runner for a party's nomination, who has entered the primary season with negatives as high as she has," Rove said in the telephone interview from Texas.

"She's not like a fresh and new character. She's someone who has been essentially known to the American people for 16 years. It's going to be hard to change the perceptions that people have had," he said.

Readers, you sort it out.

Hillary Clinton holds only a narrow lead over Barack Obama in South Carolina, according to a new poll from North Carolina-based Democratic firm Public Policy Polling:

Clinton 36% Obama 33% Edwards 12%

Obama's close-second is fueled by the fact that he has a commanding 55% majority of black voters, who are expected to make up about half of the state's Dem primary electorate, versus Hillary's 29%. Edwards, meanwhile, is invisible among the state's black voters, with a mere 1% support. Among whites, Hillary leads Obama by practically the same margin as he beats her with African Americans: Hillary 43%, Edwards 20%, Obama 16%.

Thus the result in South Carolina may turn on race. In this poll, whites make up 56% of Democratic respondents, versus only 40% blacks. If the racial balance shifts in a South Carolina poll towards more blacks, Obama then would the upper hand.

On the Republican side, Fred Thompson leads with 22%, followed by Rudy Giuliani at 18%, Mitt Romney with 17%, and John McCain at 11%.

Rudy Giuliani gave a speech in 1996 in which he claimed that America will "never, ever be able to totally control immigration," adding that this is something that the country needs to "accept" -- a claim that appears to be directly at odds with his current campaign assertion that he's the candidate who will "end" illegal immigration.

Election Central obtained a video portion of the 1996 speech -- which you can watch below -- from a rival campaign.

In the speech, Rudy also says the following of our inability to control immigration: "We just have to accept that if we’re going to be the kind of country we are.”

Rudy also claims in the October 1996 speech at the Kennedy School of Government that our inability to totally control immigration is linked to our being a "society that values freedom" and adds that totally controlling immigration could "very well destroy the economy of the United States."

These assertions, too, would appear to be directly at odds with his current promise to "end" illegal immigration completely. Rudy's GOP rivals -- Mitt Romney in particular -- have sought to make Rudy's past expressions of support for illegal immigrants an issue in the GOP primary. Take a look:

Here's what Rudy said in the 1996 speech:

GIULIANI: But then I think we have to, with some degree of wisdom, come to the following perspective. We're never, ever going to be able to totally control immigration to a country that is as large as ours, that has borders that are as diverse as the borders of the United States, and as a society that wants to be a country that values freedom -- that values freedom of movement, freedom to do business.

If you were to totally control immigration into the United States, if you were to totally control the flow of people in the United States, you might very well destroy the economy of the United States because you'd have to inspect everything and everyone in every way possible. I don't know that there's any technological way to totally control it. There's no doubt much better ways to get more of a reasonable degree of assurance about who's coming in, to get more control over it, you're never totally going to control it. So we just have to accept that if we want to be the kind of country that we are."

Here's what Rudy said yesterday in South Carolina:

"We can end illegal immigration. I promise you, we can end illegal immigration."

And here's what Rudy is saying in his new immigration radio ad in New Hampshire:

"A person who comes here illegally and commits a crime should be thrown out of the country. People that come in illegally, we gotta stop," Giuliani says. "You stop illegal immigration by building a fence, a physical fence and then a technological fence. You then hire enough Border Patrol so they can respond in a timely way."

A Giuliani spokesperson didn't return a request for comment. We're searching for the full transcript of Rudy's Kennedy speech and we'll bring that to you if and when we find it.

The Edwards campaign is now confirming on the record what sources have been saying anonymously: That Edwards is pulling staff out of Nevada and moving them to New Hampshire and Iowa.

The campaign says it's a response to the accelerated primary calendar, adding that the change nonetheless doesn't represent a change in strategy towards Nevada.

Edwards deputy campaign manager Jonathan Prince sends me the following statement:

?Our strategy is unchanged -- four states and $40 million. As the calendar fluctuates, with Iowa and New Hampshire moving up significantly, we need to accelerate hiring there to hit our organizing targets, so we?'re shifting some trained staffers there, but we are as committed as ever to winning Nevada.?

The campaign declined to detail the number of personnel to be moved. But campaign aides note that staff movements are in general increasingly common as campaigns wear on, so this almost certainly isn't the first shift in personnel we're going to see.

Here's still more evidence of Mitt Romney rising: For the first time, Romney has overtaken Fred Thompson for second place in national polling of Republicans, according to a new Quinnipiac poll released this morning.

The survey finds that Rudy Giuliani leads the field with a small plurality of 28%, followed by Romney at 15% and Thompson with 12%. John McCain is in fourth with 11%, statistically tied with Thompson. According to our Election Central Poll Tracker, this is Romney's first second-place finish.

On the Democratic side, meanwhile, the Q-poll finds that Hillary Clinton continues to enjoy a wide lead of 36% to Barack Obama's 21%. And John Edwards is at only 9%, placing fourth behind non-candidate Al Gore, who has 15%.

A key footnote: All three of the top Democratic candidates tie or beat Rudy Giuliani: Hillary leads him 46%-43%; Edwards has a 43%-42% edge, and Barack Obama ties him at 42%.

Mitt Romney already has a new ad up in Iowa today, thanking Iowa for delivering him a victory in Saturday's Ames straw poll:

The ad looks like it's meant to provoke what in advertising is called a bandwagon effect — it tells Iowa Republicans that Romney is leading, and has already won a vote in the state, thus attracting voters who might have an instinct to get with a winner.

It can't be overstated how important creating that bandwagon effect in Iowa — and New Hampshire — is to Romney's overall strategy. Early wins in those states will then create momentum in the later primaries, blunting or even undoing Rudy Giuliani's national lead in advance of the big-state primaries in Florida and South Carolina that Rudy is banking on. Recall that John Kerry was able to take the Democratic nomination by using his upset victory in Iowa in 2004 as a springboard to vault past other Dems who at the time were crushing him in national polls.

Is the Edwards campaign downgrading its commitment to winning in Nevada? Edwards sources are now saying that the campaign is shifting some of its staffers out of the state and moving them to Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

It's unclear as yet how many staffers are being shifted, and the significance of the move is as yet unclear. Edwards' shortage of campaign funds -- compared to Obama and Hillary, that is -- leaves him with less cash to spread across multiple states.

Some have suggested that Nevada is perhaps less significant than it was, thanks to the recent shifts in the primary calendar. But the Big Three Dem campaigns are competing furiously for union support in the state, and even Edwards himself has said that the state is enormously important to determining the next nominee.

"I think placing Nevada early in the primary caucus schedule was something that made sense to me," Edwards told the Reno Gazette-Journal six months ago (via Nexis). "I was supportive of it for a lot of reasons. Nevada both by way of geography, ethnicity, the labor presence represents a force that should be heard early in the nominating process. Bottom line, Nevada is going to play a huge role in who the next nominee for the democratic party is."

A new Rasmussen poll of the New Hampshire Democratic primary out this morning shows Hillary Clinton with a wide lead:

Clinton 37%
Obama 22%
Edwards 14%
Richardson 9%

Indeed, this lead in New Hampshire — where Hillary is also racking up establishment support — is about in line with Hillary's national lead. Of course, there's still Iowa, where the race is much closer, and where a victory by either Obama or Edwards could shift the dynamic in New Hampshire and elsewhere.

Edwards Calls For Overhaul Of Farm Subsidies Away From Corporations

Speaking in Iowa yesterday, John Edwards called for a massive reform of the country's farm subsidy programs, limiting subsidy pay-outs to $250,000/person in order to not reward large corporate mega-farms. In addition, he would ban packer ownership of livestock, and declare a moratorium on concentrated livestock feeding operations.

Susan Collins Thinks Tracking Is A Dirty Trick

Senator Susan Collins' (R-ME) campaign has sent a letter to her Democratic opponent, Congressman Tom Allen, asking him to stop sending a tracker to videotape the Senator's public appearances. "Tactics such as tracking demean the political process, contribute to voter cynicism, and have no place in the type of substantive issues-oriented campaigns that our voters deserve," wrote Collins' chief of staff Steve Abbott. Allen campaign manager Valerie Martin shot back that their trackers have been no more intrusive than any member of the media, and further that her own candidate is "not embarrassed about anything he would say in public."

Hillary Spends Day Following Nurse

Hillary Clinton followed a Nevada nurse, Michelle Estrada, Monday as she performed her job and returned to her house for dinner with her family to learn more about her life. The event was not an idle photo-op, however — the Service Employees International Union has made participation in its "Walk A Day In My Shoes" program mandatory in order to compete for its endorsement. John Edwards and Barack Obama have both already done the program. Only one Republican has indicated that he will participate: Mike Huckabee.

Fred Thompson's Undeclared Campaign Finds Internet Loopholes

The New York Times today looks at Fred Thompson's undeclared campaign, and explores the tension between FEC laws and the Internet in running for President. Because Thompson has yet to formally declare his candidacy he is legally prohibited from advertising, yet his substantial presence on the Internet make him a highly visible contender for the presidency while he bides his time. His aggressive Internet strategy raises questions as to whether or not FEC laws need to be revisited to redefine what is considered "campaigning," factoring in new technologies.

Hillary's Records As First Lady Sealed Until After 2008 Elections

Political opponents may salivate at the opportunity to search through millions of pages of records of Hillary's time in the White House, but her records will be kept under wraps until after such information is useful this election cycle. Stored at the Clinton library in Arkansas, a staff of about a dozen works to keep up with constant requests for documents under the Freedom of Information Act. The records include such items as scheduling info and memos from through the Clintons' two terms in the White House.

Family Research Council To Hold Straw Poll

The Family Research Council, the country's leading Christian right organization, has announced a three-day "Values Voters Summit" to be held October 19-21 in Washington. The event will include a presidential straw poll. Confirmed speakers include Sean Hannity, Robert Bork, Phyllis Schlafly, Gary Bauer, Paul Weyrich, Bill Bennett and Rick Santorum.

Poll: Tsongas Widow A Heavy Favorite For Meehan's House Seat

A new SurveyUSA poll shows Niki Tsongas (D), widow of Senator Paul Tsongas, is the heavy favorite in the September 4 special election primary for the seat of former Congressman Marty Meehan (D), who resigned July 1 to become chancellor of the University of Massachusetts at Lowell. Tsongas has 38% support in the poll, followed by Lowell city councillor Eileen Donoghue at 16%, state Representative Barry Finegold at 14%, and state Representative Jamie Eldridge with 13%. The Democratic primary is tantamount to election.

In Kentucky, Chandler Not Ruling Out Senate Run Against McConnell

Congressman Ben Chandler (D-KY) said in an interview that while he is not currently going in the direction of a campaign against U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, he is not entirely ruling it out, either. In addition, 1995 Republican nominee for governor Larry Forgy has also indicated that he's also not ruling out a campaign against McConnell in the Republican primary, and is waiting to see how forcefully McConnell supports Governor Ernie Fletcher in this year's gubernatorial election. Forgy is a strong ally of Fletcher.

Edwards: As President, I'll Reach Out To The People On Health Care, Not Congress

John Edwards' bus tour of Iowa continues apace, with him telling an Iowa crowd that as president, he would make the case for his health care policy directly to the people, circumventing Congress in the negotiations. "The one mistake that has been made by people who come into the Oval Office, they think it is all about negotiating with the leadership in Congress," Edwards said, adding that the health care industry would spend millions in lobbying and advertising to stop reform. "The president with the American people can make this happen," he explained, saying he would make his case directly to the people and ask them to demand action from their elected representatives. "Because the politicians will do what the American people require."

Karl Rove Grants First Interview To Tough Questioner: Rush Limbaugh

Courtesy of Think Progress, tomorrow Karl Rove will be doing his first media interview since announcing his resignation. It will be on Rush Limbaugh's radio show. On his show yesterday, Limbaugh reacted to the news of Rove's departure by calling him "fine, upstanding, cheerful, optimistic person just like the president is."

Hillary Responds To White House Attack

On the campaign trail just moments ago, Hillary hit back at the White House for criticizing her ad claiming the middle class and the troops are "invisible" to the Bush administration. "Apparently I've struck a nerve, the White House just attacked me a few minutes ago," Clinton said. "Not only have I said it and am saying it, I will keep saying it because I happen to believe it."

AP Fact Check Finds No Substance To Attack On Obama

Barack Obama took some heat from the right today after he said in New Hampshire that we should move to ensure that "we're not just air-raiding villages and killing civilians" in Afghanistan. Mitt Romney and the RNC asserted that Obama was denigrating US troops, but the AP discovered that collateral damage is a major issue in Afghanistan, where more civilians have been killed this year by NATO (286) than terrorists (231). President Bush recently acknowledged that high civilian deaths were a problem while meeting with Afghan President Hamid Karzai, and said publicly that he "assured him that we share those concerns."

Both Parties Selling Access To National Convention Donors

Both the Democratic and Republican national convention hosting committees are soliciting corporate donations to finance their ostentatious pep rallies next summer, promising access to receptions with top elected officials in exchange for multi-million dollar donations. "The more money the donors spend, the more access they get," reports the Washington Post on this living parody of a Thomas Nast cartoon. "Donors also garner valuable publicity for their businesses and the convention's locale, which has its own commercial payoff."

Bush To Attend Fundraiser For Norm Coleman

Norm Coleman's (R-MN) potential 2008 opponents surely will be glad to hear that the President is in town August 21st to raise money for his campaign. Coleman's seat is considered vulnerable largely due to the unpopularity of George W. Bush and the Iraq War. 31% of Minnesotans currently approve of the President's performance versus 66% who disapprove, according to a Survey USA poll released this week.

Edwards: I Understand Pro-Impeachment Feeling, But I Don't Favor Impeachment

During a bus-tour campaign stop in Iowa yesterday, John Edwards was asked about impeaching President Bush and Vice President Cheney. Edwards said that the key question to ask is what's the most effective way of stopping the administration's abuses of power. Citing his own experiences in the Senate in early 1999, when the impeachment of Bill Clinton ground the Senate to a halt, Edwards said impeachment was not the best way to handle the problems. "I am not personally for impeachment. I understand the feeling, I completely understand it." The vid captures the flavor of the tour:

The Edwards and Giuliani camps are battling it out today over the big Rudy article in Foreign Affairs we posted on below laying out his foreign policy vision.

First Edwards criticized Rudy's foreign policy ideas, particularly his embrace of the war on terror:

"Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani curiously seems to have forgotten that he said in March that we should abandon the "war on terror" approach because, in his words, "America is seen as a country by too many that wants to have war, or exercises its power too much, pushes its weight around too much."

The Politicker then got this response from Giuliani campaign spokesperson Katie Levinson:

"Voters will buy this latest political attack about as much as they bought it when Edwards claimed the war on terror was simply a 'bumper sticker.' You almost have to feel sorry for the guy at this point as he continues to struggle for relevance in the Democratic primary and is lashing out in all directions."

Whoo-wheee! Getting hot in here...

To that, Edwards campaign spokesperson Eric Schultz replied:

"Poor Rudy, first he loses all touch with reality by bragging he spent more time at Ground Zero than our brave firefighters and first responders, and now he wants to brag about his foreign policy vision which can be best described as 'George Bush without the thinking.'"

And that's where we are.

Just in case you were wondering what Rudy Giuliani's foreign policy vision adds up to, he's now published a long and detailed article in Foreign Affairs that spells it all out.

The essence of Rudy's approach might best be described as "Bush-heavy." Rudy argues that Bush hasn't gone far enough in the direction he's taken the country these past six-and-a-half years.

"We are all members of the 9/11 generation," Rudy's subtle first sentence reads — something that tells you quite a lot about what Rudy's policies and campaign themes are. Rudy goes on to make some startling policy pronouncements — such as suggesting that we expand and redefine NATO into a worldwide alliance for pursuing more foreign adventures, and that running New York City as Mayor is very similar to handling the global foreign policy challenges associated with being President.

Seriously. I'm not making this up.

Check out some choice excerpts after the jump.

Read more »

The Barack Obama foreign policy quote du jour that has politicos buzzing today is this one from New Hampshire yesterday concerning Afghanistan:

"We've got to get the job done there. And that requires us to have enough troops so that we're not just air-raiding villages and killing civilians, which is causing enormous pressure over there."

The line is already being questioned by the Republican National Committee and by political insiders, such as The Note, apparently because it's allegedly suggesting that the only thing U.S. troops are doing is air-raiding villages and killing civilians.

Now the Romney campaign has become the first Presidential rival to step forward and publicly condemn Obama's remark:

"That is a very troubling remark on so many levels," said Romney spokesman Kevin Madden. "Most importantly, it's emblematic of Senator Obama's lack of experience for the job of commander-in-chief. But it's also an entirely inaccurate condemnation of the efforts of the men and women of the United States military who are serving in Iraq and Afghanistan."

It's a stretch to say Obama was condemning the troops here, or their "efforts," for that matter. Rather, it seems clear that he was questioning overall policy. Relatedly, see the Associated Press' fact check of Obama's comments here concluding that he's right about deaths to civilians.

Update: Looks like U.S. Colonel John Nicholson agrees with Obama on the deaths of Afghan civilians:

"So I stand before you today deeply, deeply ashamed and terribly sorry that Americans have killed and wounded innocent Afghan people. We are filled with grief and sadness at the death of any Afghan, but the death and wounding of innocent Afghans at the hand of Americans is a stain on our honor and on the memory of the many Americans who have died defending Afghanistan and the Afghan people."

The White House waded into the Presidential race for what we believe is the first time today, attacking Hillary over the Iowa ad she launched yesterday that said the middle class and the troops were "invisible" to the Bush administration.

Here's what White House flack Dana Perino had to say at today's gaggle when asked to respond to the spot:

MS. PERINO: Well, this is going to be tricky going into the campaign season, when people start running ads, because as tempted as I am to take that head on, I think I will refer to the RNC for the specific -- for answers on the politics of it. But as to the merits of it, I think it's outrageous. This is a President who, first and foremost, has helped millions of seniors across the country have access to prescription drugs at a much lower cost....And as to whether or not our troops are invisible to this President, I think that that is absurd, and that is unconscionable that a member of Congress would say such a thing.

And just in case you didn't realize that getting the White House to respond to your campaign is rather desirable in the context of Dem primary politics, check out the big play this is getting over at her official Web site, HillaryHub.com.

Looks like GOP House leader Denny Hastert is set to announce that he's not seeking reelection next year -- or so reports the local Illinois media here and here. More confirmation here.

Meanwhile, the Beacon News of suburban Chicago has a rundown of the Dem and Republican candidates jockeying for the seat right here. Despite Dem pleasure at Hastert's imminent retirement, however, the GOP is favored to hang on to this safely Republican district, which voted for Bush by 55%-44% in 2004.

Wow, some eye-opening numbers: The Dem party committees are absolutely crushing their GOP counterparts in fundraising this year, according to new figures just posted by the Federal Election Commission.

During the first six months of 2007, the FEC says, Dem committees raised $111 million and spent $67 million. That's an astounding 98% increase over a comparable period in 2003. The jump was largely fueled by the DCCC's fundraising success, the FEC claims.

Meanwhile, GOP committees raised $108 million and spent $82 million. That's a 22% decline from the comparable 2003 period. All three GOP committees -- the RNC, the NRCC, and the NRSC -- experienced a fundraising dip.

USA Today's political blog, which first flagged the numbers, has this key observation: "The trends echo what's been happening in the presidential contest. The top Democratic presidential contenders have collected much more money than the leading Republican candidates -- though the GOP contenders have spent more."

Do you ever wonder why Iraq hawks keep citing General David Petraeus as part of a comprehensive effort to make him the new public face of the war? A new Gallup poll sheds some light on the subject: Petraeus' favorables are a respectably high 47%, compared to only 21% unfavorable and the rest undecided.

Republicans view Petraeus favorably by a lopsided 67-7% margin, and independents look upon him favorably by a 45%-24% margin. Even among Democrats, who largely oppose the war and the surge/escalation strategy that Petraeus is overseeing, his favorables narrowly edge his unfavorables by a 33%-31% margin.

It's not surprising, then, that White House officials and Republicans in Congress constantly drop Petraeus' name in connection with the war. He's by far the most favorably viewed person involved in running it.

Here's an interesting figure in a new American Research Group poll out today: It appears Mitt Romney has crept up into a national tie with Fred Thompson for second place.

The poll finds that Rudy has 27%, Romney and Thompson both have 16%, and McCain lags behind the three at 13%.

In last month's ARG polling, McCain had been edging Romney 14%-10%, but now Romney has picked up six points to pass McCain and catch Thompson.

Meanwhile, on the Dem side, Hillary is holding her national lead with 36%, with Barack Obama at 21% and Edwards at 16%.

It's looking more and more like the Rudy camp is seriously worried about Romney's attacks over immigration.

For the second day in a row today, Rudy pushed back against Romney's charge that he'd endorsed illegal immigration as Mayor of New York by painting himself as tough on immigration. At a campaign stop in South Carolina this morning, Rudy vowed to "end illegal immigration," saying that he would require a uniform identification card for foreign workers and students and create a central database to track the legal status of visitors.

Meanwhile, Rudy rivals continue to point to his past tolerance, or even embrace, of illegal immigration when he was Mayor:

"Some of the hardest-working and most productive people in this city are undocumented aliens," Giuliani said in 1994. "If you come here and you work hard and you happen to be in an undocumented status, you're one of the people who we want in this city."

Two years later, when asked his view of a Suffolk County bill to make English the official language, he responded, "There's no reason to pass a bill like this, except maybe to exclude people, insult people or offend people."

Also in the new CBS numbers we noted below: Bush's approval rating has soared all the way up to 29%.

And speaking of big bounces, CBS says that optimism on the war is way, way up, too -- with all of 29% saying that the surge is having a positive impact, leading CBS to stick the following headline on the poll:

Poll: Americans More Optimistic On Surge

Of course, the poll also says that two thirds believe the war overall is going badly, and two thirds want to pull out some or all troops, but Americans are more optimistic on the surge itself, so that's the news...

CBS has some new poll numbers out, and they include the surprising finding that the pro-choice and pro-gay-rights Rudy is leading the GOP field among the following groups:

* Conservatives * Those who live in the south and west * Evangelical Christians * Voters who think that a candidate's personal life should be a factor in deciding whom to support

Yes, surveys have found that many Republicans don't grasp Rudy's views on their core issues. But if findings like the above persist, they will require a better explanation.

The poll also finds that Rudy is leading the field in a national matchup with 38%, while Fred Thompson is second at 18%, Romney third with 13%, and John McCain fourth with 12%.

CBS hasn't yet provided the poll's internals, but we'll bring them to you as soon as they're available.

WaPo: Romney's Wealth Allowing Him To Self-Finance

The Washington Post today examines Mitt Romney's 250 million dollars in assets, focusing on the candidate's long relationship with Bain Capital Partners, a Boston investment group. Even after placing his assets in a blind trust in 1999, Romney has reaped millions from the firm in dividends and acquired a base of influential fundraisers with deep pockets. Romney's personal fortune also has allowed him to back up his presidential ambitions by loaning his campaign $8.9 million — meaning that a significant portion of his campaign treasury has been from self-funding.

With Straw Poll Over, No-Shows Coming To Iowa

Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Fred Thompson all skipped the Iowa Straw Poll, but they are now all headed for the state this week now that the event is over. Fred Thompson will go to the Iowa State Fair this Friday — an absolute must for a presidential candidate. Also, John McCain is arriving in the state today, and Rudy Giuliani is set to arrive tomorrow.

Party Lining Up Behind Merkley For Senate

Oregon Governor Ted Kulongoski (D) and former Governor Barbara Roberts announced yesterday that they would serve as co-chairs for the Senate campaign of state House Speaker Jeff Merkley, who is hoping to unseat two-term Republican incumbent Gordon Smith. Steve Novick, a Democratic activist from the Portland area, is also in the race. However, party officials continued to look for a candidate after Novick had declared, and now the party establishment appears to be lining up solidly behind Merkley.

Spokesman: Ron Paul "Pretty Pleased" With Fifth Place At Ames

Ron Paul campaign spokesman Jesse Benton told The Hill that Paul was "pretty pleased" with his fifth-place showing at Ames over the weekend, saying the event was "an opportunity to introduce Ron to the Iowa voters." Benton also noted that Paul had "the strongest overall presence" besides Romney, if out-of-state attendees were counted. However, only Iowans could vote in the event.

Poll: Jindal Has Huge Lead In Louisiana Over Nagin, Boasso

A new poll by Baton Rouge-based Southern Media & Opinion Research shows that Congressman Bobby Jindal (R) has an absolutely enormous lead in the race for governor this fall. The poll has Jindal at 60.3% of the vote, followed by New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin at 10.5%, and state Senator Walter Boasso at 10%.

Huckabee Going To New Hampshire

On the heels of his runner-up showing at the Iowa Straw Poll, Mike Huckabee will be making a trip to New Hampshire this weekend, arriving on Friday and staying through Monday. Huckabee will attend picnics and a spaghetti dinner, will meet with local pastors, and will even deliver a Sunday sermon in Auburn, being a minister himself.

McCain Minimizes Importance of Ames Straw Poll

After a weak 10th place finish in the Iowa Straw Poll, McCain defended his decision not to participate, dismissing the event as irrelevant. "I think straw polls are meaningless and that's all," Mccain said in South Carolina. "I understand that it's a great way for the party to get money. I haven't engaged in any straw polls either here in South Carolina or Iowa or New Hampshire or anywhere else."

McCain Publishes New Book Not Entitled Profiles In Courage

John McCain has now published a new book, Hard Call: Great Decisions and the Extraordinary People Who Made Them, now available for sale. From the book description: "The authors identify six qualities typically represented in the best decisions: Awareness. Timing. Foresight. Confidence. Humility. Inspiration. These qualities are personified by the exceptional individuals in this book, each of whom made a hard call." This sounds very a familiar, an awful lot like John F. Kennedy's own ghost-written classic, Profiles In Courage.

Hastert To Announce 2008 Plans This Friday

Former Speaker Dennis Hastert will hold a press conference this Friday in his Illinois district, where he will announce whether or not he is running for another term in the House. If Hastert decides not to run, the Republicans would be heavily favored to keep his seat, which went for President Bush in 2004 by a 55%-44% margin.

Hillary To Hold Fundraiser With Black Celebrities

Hillary Clinton has scheduled a September 14 fundraiser with some high-profile black celebrities, perhaps in an effort to shore up minority support against Barack Obama. The even will be held at the home of former basketball player Earvin "Magic" Johnson, who has successfully lived with HIV for over 15 years, along with Motown music legends Quincy Jones, Berry Gordy and Clarence Avant.

Obama Campaign Tries Out Smaller Crowds

Barack Obama, whose rock-star status has drawn large crowds to rallies, tried out a smaller venue today, speaking with voters in a New Hampshire restaurant. Said Obama: "We've been blessed to have some terrific crowds at these town hall meetings, but most of the time I'm doing most of the talking and not doing enough listening." According to the AP, the event featured eight voters and "three times as many newspeople," underscoring the difficulty of toning down Obama's stadium size campaign.

Left-Wing Iowa Politician Ed Fallon Endorses Edwards

John Edwards picked up the endorsement of Ed Fallon, a former state representative and candidate for governor in 2006. Fallon broke with the party in 2000 to endorse Ralph Nader, considered by many Democrats to be the ultimate sin, but returned returned to the party afterwards. With 25% of the vote in the 2006 Democratic gubernatorial primary despite his past Naderism, Fallon still maintains popularity with a significant chunk of Iowa Democrats.

Dem Firm: Democratic Edge Crossing Class Lines

A new memo from the Democracy Corps finds that Democrats hold a 12-point lead in the generic presidential race and a nine-point lead on the generic Congressional ballot — and in an interesting development, the lead holds true across class boundaries, with voters of different levels of education all favoring the Dems by similar margins. "In short," the memo says, "the rush to be done with the Republicans is turning America a little classless."

Edwards Denounces Draft In Iowa

With rumors of a draft spreading after comments by Lt. Gen. Douglas Lute, the "War Czar," John Edwards took the opportunity to criticize President Bush for straining the military and wearing down its equipment in Iraq. Edwards dismissed the notion of departing from a volunteer army, telling an Iowa crowd "The last thing we need is a draft. What we need is to start bringing home our men and women from Iraq."

South Carolina Dems Confirm Primary Staying At January 29
South Carolina Democratic Party chairwoman Carol Fowler confirmed today that her state party has no plans to try moving their primary up, as the state Republicans have already done. "I'm not inclined for asking for something I know I'll be turned down on," Fowler said. Fowler also expressed her displeasure with the way the calendar has been upended by Florida moving up their primary to the same date, and the dominoes that have fallen since then. "We tried to work out the best calendar we could and it's under siege from all directions."

Bloomberg Defends NYC Immigration Amidst GOP Attacks

With GOP candidates such as Mitt Romnney using New York's pro-immigrant ways as a means to bash Rudy Giuliani and build credibility with the conservative base, Mayor Bloomberg fiercely defended the city's immigrants while speaking at a junior high school in Manhattan. "I can't think of any laboratory that shows better why you need a stream of immigrants than New York City," said Bloomberg, who told the crowd that immigration has "kept us alive and thriving." The mayor pointed to the city's low crime rate and booming economy as evidence of immigrants' positive impact.

Uh oh -- social tolerance alert!

Rudy Giuliani has been taking a beating from Mitt Romney as being illegal immigration, and now he's fashioned a response of sorts: Today the Giuliani campaign unveiled what it's calling an "Immigration Advisory Board."

This board, the Rudy camp says, is advising Giuliani in his effort to "end illegal immigration, secure our borders and identify every non-citizen in our nation." The announcement seems designed to fend off Romney's strong suggestion the other day that Rudy supported illegal immigration when he was Mayor of New York City, something that presumably would damage Rudy in the eyes of GOP primary voters.

The question, though, is whether unveiling an "Immigration Advisory Board" will be enough to erase memories of Rudy's past tolerance, or even embrace, of illegal immigration. Rudy foes are pointing to this Giuliani quote from 1994:

"Some of the hardest-working and most productive people in this city are undocumented aliens," Giuliani said at the time. "If you come here and you work hard and you happen to be in an undocumented status, you're one of the people who we want in this city. You're somebody that we want to protect, and we want you to get out from under what is often a life of being like a fugitive, which is really unfair."

Oh, man -- Rudy's in real trouble now!

As you may recall, last fall it was Romney who was coming under fire as revelations of his past social tolerance surfaced. Now it's Rudy's turn.

CNN has released some new poll numbers today, and this one seems surprising:

Obama is presenting himself on the campaign trail as the candidate of change, but only 27 percent of the Democrats we questioned say the senator from Illinois is most likely to change the country. That’s second to Clinton -- 40 percent of those polled say she’s most likely to bring change.

The usual caveats aside -- this is a national poll, etc. -- it's worth noting that this comes after Obama has aggressively sought to link Hillary to the D.C. foreign policy and political establishment, and to argue that he's the race's real change agent.

Meanwhile, Obama polls better than Hillary on who's more likeable, 34%-31%. But Hillary is doing markedly better than Obama -- 59% to 9% -- on the question of who's seen to have more of the right experience to be President, a key Hillary campaign argument.

Okay, this is a perfectly sensible explanation...

Bill Richardson is now attempting to clarify his stumbling answer at last week's Human Rights Campaign forum, in which he said that homosexuality is a choice. Here's what he had to say today in an interview with Sirius radio:

And, I always love the word 'choice.' I’m for freedom of choice, I have in my health care plan a choice where everybody can keep their health care plan. And so I always kind of feel it's a golden word, and I didn't think through what Melissa was asking me.

Yes, Governor, "choice" really is a nice word. Perhaps one might choose to steer clear of this topic going forward?

Mitt Romney reveals in his financial disclosure forms today that he's worth between $190 million and $250 million, much of it from investments in banks, foreign corporations and real estate.

But unlike in Edwards' case, of course, Romney's wealth won't be an issue in the campaign. Why? Because he hasn't made poverty a central cause and because he supports policies that advance the financial interests of himself and his class.

Or something like that.

John Edwards' statement on the departure of "the architect" has just landed in the old in-box, and it easily takes the award for best statement of the day. Here it is, in full:

“Goodbye, good riddance.”

Expanding her battle with military brass and the White House over Iraq, Hillary Clinton is now demanding in a letter that the White House clarify its position on the draft, in the wake of the deputy national security adviser's controversial assertion that the draft option has always been "on the table."

"Since raising the prospect of a draft contradicts the previously stated policy of your Administration, I ask that you clarify your current policy regarding the possibility of re-instituting a military draft," Clinton writes in the letter, which was sent directly to President Bush.

An advance copy of the letter was obtained by Election Central.

Clinton's letter comes in response to comments last week by Deputy National Security Adviser, Lieutenant General Douglas Lute, who said: "I think it makes sense to certainly consider it. And I can tell you, this has always been an option on the table."

The Hillary letter will put pressure on the administration to clarify its position on this hot-button issue, a move that also helps Hillary politically because her aggressive standoff with military brass over Iraq is likely to appeal to Dem primary voters.

Full letter after the jump.

Update: Think Progress has some very good video of Dem Rep. Charlie Rangel, who wants the draft reinstated.

Read more »

Forget Mitt Romney — the most serious flip-flopper in the race for the Republican Presidential nomination may just be Rudy Giuliani.

That's the case that is made in an extensive examination of Rudy's record in today's Boston Globe.

This must-read article is the best rundown we've seen yet on all the ways that this one-time national champion of socially liberal Republicanism has flip-flopped over to the right in order to please the Republican base.

On how many issues has Rudy flipped? Check out our rundown after the jump.

Read more »

Obama is first out of the gate with a statement on the architect's departure:

“Karl Rove was an architect of a political strategy that has left the country more divided, the special interests more powerful, and the American people more shut out from their government than any time in memory. But to build a new kind of politics, it will take more than the departure of a man or even an Administration that constructed the old –- it will take a movement of everyday Americans committed to changing Washington and reclaiming their government.”"

Tailoring the response to his own larger message, obviously. More as we get them.

"I think the story of my campaign is the ongoing struggle to maintain my voice and my compass in a process that in a lot of ways is slightly ridiculous."

So Hillary is now taking to the airwaves in Iowa for the first time. The move comes as polls show that the race for Iowa is a tight one between the Big Three Dem candidates.

Both Obama and Edwards have been pointing to the close Iowa polls as proof that her national lead is meaningless, a case Clinton's people have aggressively sought to counter in recent days. Both Edwards and Obama have already hit the airwaves in the state.

Update: Video added.

In GQ's first political front page piece since 1992, the mag has just gone live with a profile of Barack Obama by Ryan Lizza:

Turns out that Obama's aides, however, weren't so sure they wanted their guy on this cover:

Obama’s aides, too, often fret that his fame is diminishing him. They struggled for weeks before deciding to agree to let him grace the cover of this magazine. “Frankly, I could do with fewer cover stories generally,” David Axelrod, Obama’s top strategist and adman told me during a recent visit to his Chicago office. “He’s an incredibly magnetic and also photogenic person, and so he lands on the covers of a lot of magazines. And that had its utility at one point, but it can get overdone. This is a really profound guy in many ways, and you don’t want him trivialized.”

My bet is Axelrod's being tactful here; the real worry was probably over his being on the cover of a men's mag -- not over getting cover stories in general.

Full piece here. We're digging through it and will let you know if there are any other noteworthy nuggets. Meanwhile, let us know if you spot anything...

"Karl Rove was the 'architect' of one of the worst governments in American history, and the one who engineered the end of modern conservatism, one of the most successful ideological movements in modern world history."

-- Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg, commenting on the significance of "architect" Karl Rove's resignation from the Bush White House.

Update: Kevin Drum amplifies this case against Rove.

Fresh off a strong victory in a weak and watered-down Iowa straw poll, Mitt took the opportunity yesterday to slip in an apology for his earlier comparison of his sons' campaign help to military service in Iraq.

"I misspoke there," Romney said yesterday on Fox News Sunday. "I didn't mean in any way to compare service in the country with my boys in any way. Service in this country is an extraordinary sacrifice being made by individuals and their families...there's just no comparison there."

Previously, Romney's team had claimed the remarks were taken out of context, even releasing a video of the incident in the hopes that it would clear things up. But that didn't work, so now he's admitting his mistake.

Rove Leaving The White House
Karl Rove has announced that he is resigning his position as deputy chief of staff at the White House and will be going back to Texas, effective August 31. "I just think it's time," Rove told the Wall St. Journal. "There's always something that can keep you here, and as much as I'd like to be here, I've got to do this for the sake of my family."

YouTube Republican Debate Is On For November 28
The CNN/YouTube Republican debate has been rescheduled for November 28. The event was originally set for September 17, but Rudy Giuliani pulled out and cited a scheduling conflict. Organizers did not give up, however, and now have both Rudy and John McCain confirmed for the new date. Mitt Romney, who has been harshly critical of the YouTube debate format, has not yet confirmed.

Potential Dem Candidates Considering Senate Race In Tennessee
Roll Call reports that two high-profile Democrats are considering running against first-term Republican Senator Lamar Alexander, a former governor, presidential candidate and WINO (Waverer In Name Only) on Iraq. The potential candidates are Bob Tuke, a former chairman of the state Democratic Party, and businessman Mike McWherter, son of former two-term governor Ned McWherter. "No one should be naive enough to think that Alexander wouldn’t be very difficult to beat," said Tuke. "On the other hand, this election could be a true watershed. If Bush sticks with what he’s doing now, which is to ignore everybody else, and only a couple stick with him, which right now is Alexander, it could be like the Titanic."

Michelle Obama Takes On The "Black Enough" Talk
Barack Obama's wife Michelle in no uncertain terms told a Chicago crowd what she thought of the talk over whether or not her husband was "black enough." "Stop that nonsense," Mrs. Obama said. She then went on and denounced such discussions for sending a bad message to the country's black youth. "We are messing with the heads of our children."

Report: Edwards Family Benefited From Murdoch/HarperCollins Expense Account
Ben Smith reports that while John Edwards has called on other candidates to divest themselves of any money coming from Rupert Murdoch, the Murdoch-owned publisher HarperCollins furnished part of a $300,000 expense budget for Edwards' daughter Cate and political aide Jonathan Prince, during a book tour. Edwards had a $500,000 book deal with the publisher, saying that he donated all $500,000 to charity. However, the benefits of living off an expense account simply cannot be donated. The lesson: If you mess with Murdoch, his companies know how to get back at you in the press.

Ron Paul's Wife Gets A Pacemaker
Carol Paul, wife of Ron Paul, had surgery yesterday in Iowa to install a pacemaker, after she was hospitalized Saturday morning for an irregular heartbeat. Paul's campaign said the surgery was successful, and Mrs. Paul is expected to make a full recovery.

Tommy Thompson Quits The Race
Former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson quit the presidential race yesterday after his sixth-place showing in the Iowa Straw Poll. "I have no regrets about running. I felt my record as Governor of Wisconsin and Secretary of Health and Human Services gave me the experience I needed to serve as President, but I respect the decision of the voters," Thompson said in a statement. "I am leaving the campaign trail today, but I will not leave the challenges of improving health care and welfare in America."

Straw Poll: Romney Wins — But Not By A Whole Lot
Mitt Romney was the winner of yesterday's Iowa Straw Poll, but with a fairly weak plurality of 31.6%. While it was roughly the same percentage as George W. Bush won in 1999, it was marred by the fact that his chief three rivals — Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Fred Thompson — weren't competing. Mike Huckabee came in second with 18.1%, followed by Sam Brownback with 15.3%. The total number of ballots cast was 14,302.

Romney Spent Big $$$ Per Vote
Mitt Romney reportedly may have spent $2 million on the straw poll, which if true means he spent $442.87 per vote. Mike Huckabee spent a mere $150,000 or $57.98 per vote, and Sam Brownback spent $325,000, or $148.27 per vote.

Romney: Those Who Skipped Straw Poll Knew They'd Have Lost
Romney tweaked his no-show opponents in a press conference. "Well it's too bad the others guys weren't competing here," Romney said. "If they'd have thought they could have been successful here, they'd have been here. Their decision not to compete here was not a decision based on a position of strength."

Lingering Christian Right Distrust — And Creationist Strength
It should be noted that Mike Huckabee and Sam Brownback, who were in their own two-man competition for evangelical support, together won more votes than Romney, a total of 33.4%. This may be a sign of lingering distrust of Romney among Iowa's Christian right activists. And on another note, Tom Tancredo placed fourth with 13.7% — meaning that the three candidates who have professed to not believe in evolution won 47.1%, just short of a majority with the Iowa GOP activists.

Huckabee Celebrates Second-Place Finish
Mike Huckabee said his second-place showing, despite having very little money, was a sign of strength for the campaign. "We're a contender. We're in this thing for the long haul," Huckabee said. He added that potential supporters have told him they like his stances on the issues, but were waiting to see some sort of traction before donating money. "Here's the traction, where's the check?"

Ron Paul Only Places Fifth
Despite the passionate support of his volunteers and the novelty of his position as an anti-war Republican, Ron Paul was only able to take 9.1% of the vote for a fifth place showing.

Tommy Thompson Expected to Withdraw
Tommy Thompson had previously said he needed a second place showing at Ames in order to be a viable candidate. As it turned out, he placed sixth. Given those results, "it would be extremely unlikely that he would continue," campaign manage Steve Grubbs told the Wisconsin State Journal. Grubbs said Thompson would release a statement today, and has no public appearances scheduled.

New Hampshire Primary Could Be On A Saturday
The current jockeying over primary dates could result in the New Hampshire primary being held on a Saturday instead of Tuesday. State law requires that the primary be held at least eight days before other primaries. With the South Carolina Republican primary now set for January 19, setting a date of January 8 — the closest Tuesday to match that criterion — would also push the Iowa caucus to New Year's Day or into 2007, due to a similar tradition with the caucus. However, New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner could legally choose January 12, a Saturday, and still leave time for Iowa to go in 2008. According to the Union Leader, a bipartisan commission 20 years ago recommended a switch to Saturday elections in order to boost turnout — only to have Gardner scuttle the idea at the time.