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Poll: Hillary, Rudy Ahead In South Carolina
CNN released a new poll today of voters in South Carolina — a state with huge strategic importance since it hosts the first southern primary along with Florida. The poll found Hillary with a big lead among Dem primary voters:
Democrats
Clinton 39%
Obama 25%
Edwards 15%
Gore 10%
And in a somewhat surprising development, Hillary seems to have solidified a solid 47%-31% lead over Obama among black voters, a group that constitutes half the state's Dem primary electorate. Blacks are a must-win for Obama, especially because among whites, Hillary has 30%, John Edwards 27%, and Obama runs third with 18%.
And on the GOP side, the pro-choice Rudy Giuliani leading with this Bible-Belt state's Republican voters, albeit with a small plurality:
Republicans
Giuliani 28%
McCain 20%
Fred Thompson 17%
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Polls in SC have been all across the board, so it will be interesting to see what ends up happening or if they start to coalesce.
Wasn't Edwards also born in South Carolina?
July 20, 2007 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, some show a consistent Hillary lead, while others show a consistent Obama lead. Its odd.
Must have to do with "likely primary voter" definitions or some such thing.
July 20, 2007 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I live in South Carolina, and I would guess that the GOP numbers will change when Thompson starts actively campaigning. This state hasn't heard anything from him, really, while the MSM cover Giuliani and McCain pretty regularly. In fact, I would go so far as to guess that a lot of voters who don't get their news from the internet aren't aware of Thompson as a possible choice at all.
The strong Clinton support is surprising to me, as well. I'll be interested to see how the numbers change once Obama starts campaigning the black churches, which have always been influential in Democratic politics in this state.
July 20, 2007 2:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I still want to see Obama's name recognition numbers. Black voters, particularly southern ones, are going to support the Clinton name. My strong suspicion is that those numbers start to move pretty substantially after the campaign season actually hits its stride.
July, people. It's JULY. Only us political addicts are really paying attention.
July 20, 2007 3:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Blah, blah, blah. Your excuses about name identification are just that - excuses. The more people learn about Obama, the less they support him. Seems it's true in the black community in South Carolina, as well.
July 20, 2007 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it was North Carolina.
Good of someone to poll JesusLand though.
July 20, 2007 3:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hadn't heard much about Howard Dean by this time in 2003 and I ended up donating a couple hundred dollars to his campaign.
July 20, 2007 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed that Thompson's numbers will grow with time. The fact that he's such a close third without much campaigning is telling.
July 20, 2007 6:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Another surprising development from that CNN poll is that a solid 30% of whites say they would not consider supporting Hillary for the nominee under any circumstances vs. only 24% of whites who say the same for Barack, a group that constitutes more than half of the state's Dem primary electorate.
July 20, 2007 6:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
This poll indicates that Obama may not be able to count on South Carolina as a fire wall, especially if underpreforms in the earlier states.
July 21, 2007 12:29 AM | Reply | Permalink