Dem Polling Firm: Younger Voters Set To Realign American Politics
Are younger voters alienated by the current crop of conservative leaders driving a massive realignment of the country towards the Democrats?
That's the clear conclusion of a new study of younger voters by Democratic polling firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner.
"Partisanship and political participation are both habit-forming and this population has the numeric strength to change American politics for the next 20 to 30 years once fully engaged," the authors argue. "Given the Republican brand crisis among younger voters, progressives are very close to locking down this vote."
The poll finds some strong shifts towards liberal positions among voters ages 18-31 that really are worth a look — check them out after the jump.
As Atrios notes, the poll finds that an astonishing 68% of respondents favor bigger government and see this as something that helps them.
The poll also asked respondents to rate their favorable or unfavorable views of the parties, candidates and other groups on a scale of zero to one hundred, also known as the "warm" (positive) and "cool" (negative) test:
• The Democratic Party scores a 50% warm score, compared to only 30% cool. Among independents in that age group, the Dems are at 37% warm, 27% cool.
• By contrast, the Republican Party is at only 35% warm, and 46% cool. Among independents in the age cohort, the GOP is at a dismal 22% warm, versus a whopping 50% cool.
• Hillary Clinton scored 49% warm, 39% cool; Barack Obama 45% warm, 26% cool; John Edwards a much poorer 30% warm, 36% cool. On the GOP side, Rudy Giuliani scores 40% warm, 29% cool; and John McCain 28% warm, 36% cool.
• Religious conservatives are at 27% warm, 42% cool; the Iraq War an abysmal 19% warm, 64% cool; and President Bush 23% warm, 53% cool.
• Gay marriage is at a poor 33% warm, 46% cool, but the number is illusory due to the intensity of the dislike among those opposed to it, versus the moderate feelings of those who favor it. In fact, the survey shows that younger voters favor gay marriage by a margin of 52%-45%.
• Twenty-five percent identity as having no religion, compared to only 11% in the population as a whole — and 60% say, "religion and faith should not play a role in politics."
It's hard to take seriously a poll of young Americans that defines "cool" as negative.
July 27, 2007 2:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
This has been pretty obvious for some time. A look at the exit polls from 2006 clearly reflects this. The most striking example is fromt he 2006 CA Governors race. Overall, Schwarzenegger won by 15+ points, but he actually lost the young person vote. Even moderate GOPers like Schwarzenegger (who essentially became a Democrat at the end of '06) are not necessarily trusted by young people. The GOP brand is in serious trouble for the next generation (who, BTW, are voting in ever increasing numbers).
But it's important to note that in order for Dems to lock in this demographic long term, they need to show that government can, in fact, work. According to several Harvard IOP surveys, more young people believe community service is more effective than government at addressing the issue they care about.
July 27, 2007 2:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ironic, isn't it, that they like both the Democratic party and big government? How will they be able to choose?
Old stereotypes die hard.
July 27, 2007 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is why it's smart to have a YouTube debate, and dumb for Republicans to snub it.
And this is why it's dumb for Hillary to make a stink every six months about video games, by the way.
"Thank God George Bush is our president." -Rudy Giuliani
July 27, 2007 2:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
For certain.
Nobody expands government like Republicans. Takes a lot of government to keep people in line and not voting if they are the wrong kind.
Best, Terry
July 27, 2007 3:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the best way to show that gov't can work would be to win the presidency and put qualified people in charge of all of the Executive Branch agencies.
It would be nice to put some of these agencies beyond political interference, like the Federal Reserve.
Otherwise, every time a Republican gets elected, the EPA, Housing, Labor, and now even Justice Departments stop doing their intended jobs and start doing the opposite.
Foxes start running all of these henhouses, i.e. former industry lobbyists and assorted GOP political hacks.
July 27, 2007 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Government will simply have to step in on global warming to provide the research monies, credits, etc. It will also require community service in lots of different ways. Democrats who pursue this will win the needed loyalty.
July 27, 2007 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
is that really the best picture you could find?
July 27, 2007 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, the highly politically motivated, numerically preponderant, and non-volatile "18 to 31" demographic. NOT! How many of them even bother to vote? 40%?
And why "18 to 31?" That's not a standard demo range. Makes me think that 32 to 35 year-olds skew heavily the other way, and are excluded for that reason.
If Dems take comfort in a poll like this, they are bone stupid. This poll is a waste of time for them. They are behind, and if they don't run with the desperation, ruthlessness, and take-no-prisoners approach of a terminal underdog running against an entrenched winner, they will lose again. And if they lose this time, it's impossible to imagine any circumstances under which they might ever win again.
This chatter about the demise of the Republicans is bullshit. Fascists will always have money the support of at least 30% of any population. But if the Dems can't win the 2008 election, what reason would there be for the continued existence of an inept, politically castrated party of permanent losers?
The 2008 election is make or break for the Dems, not the Republicans. If the Dems lose, they deserve extinction.
July 28, 2007 7:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Seems like an odd description of a party that controls both houses of Congress and has the most voting members. :-)
Undoubtedly Democrats do have a peculiar penchant for nominating terrible presidential candidate but worse electing atrocious representatives of the liberal party. The leading candidate has announced she ain't no liberal and the Republicans smear her by claiming she is. For once she is right.
Democrats again have a choice of a fine group of liberals and one Republican Lite. Sure hope they choose right - er, left this time.
Best, Terry
July 28, 2007 8:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
The title of the report is very misleading; it lumps all young Americans together, regardless of demographics.
What is not obvious at first is the fact that white young people prefer still Republicans by a small margin; it's among non-whites that the GOP's support has collapsed. That makes the question of relative levels of voting activity among whites, African-Americans, Hispanics, and Asians more relevant than the simple aggregate numbers.
Given the levels of dissatisfaction among minorities regarding the GOP, you can bet that Rove & Co will crank up the caging and voter roll purging machines to full power next year.
July 29, 2007 8:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
LongTom, lay off this age group. This group is the majority I witnessed showing up to work in the 2006 McCaskill campaign; and I am witnessing even higher numbers for the Democratic primary campaigns. The Democrats are energized and it includes a majority who fall right in this age group.
Energy...commitment...excitement...the Democrats are getting all of that and more from this age group.
July 29, 2007 10:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hope you're right, but just because we have a good crop of politically active under 31 year olds...well, it doesn't change that the young voter turnout has never been all that great.
July 29, 2007 10:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
link
"Thank God George Bush is our president." -Rudy Giuliani
July 29, 2007 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
I heard Grover Norquist talk a couple of months before the '06 election, when it was not clear yet that the GOP Congress was going down. He gleefully boasted, in a couple of sentences, that the D brand was dying because Democratic voters were disappearing ("yup, old southern Democrats are dying") while more people were joining the GOP demographic.
It's good to have some hard data to debunk that silly comment.
I guess he wasn't really onvincend by his own argument, seeing how he was involved in the K Street Project and the hijacking of Federal agencies, just to make sure the GOP hegemony would be everlasting. Oh well, sorry we live in a representative democracy, Grover.
July 29, 2007 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not down on the age group. I just have a sense that this poll is heavily concocted. It's natural for kids to be disinterested politically, which is what they've been since the end of the draft, right up to 2000.
If there's an inspirational, charismatic candidate who can motivate them--whether McCarthy or Kennedy in the old days, or Obama now (or Bush, as a negative inspiration)--the kids will turn out for them. My point was only that self-congratulatory, over-optimistic polling isn't what the Dems need.
The Republicans are an amped-up, well-funded election-stealing criminal conspiracy. Unless the Dems get hip to this and figure out a way to derail their domination of the media, p.r. swift-boating, and slick branding, they'll wake up the morning after the 2008 election wondering how they could have lost.
And here's a hint: the Dems won't win by being more forthright, honest, and issues-oriented. That shit means nothing.
July 29, 2007 7:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not down on the age group. I just have a sense that this poll is heavily concocted. It's natural for kids to be disinterested politically, which is what they've been since the end of the draft, right up to 2000.
If there's an inspirational, charismatic candidate who can motivate them--whether McCarthy or Kennedy in the old days, or Obama now (or Bush, as a negative inspiration)--the kids will turn out for them. My point was only that self-congratulatory, over-optimistic polling isn't what the Dems need.
The Republicans are an amped-up, well-funded election-stealing criminal conspiracy. Unless the Dems get hip to this and figure out a way to derail their domination of the media, p.r. swift-boating, and slick branding, they'll wake up the morning after the 2008 election wondering how they could have lost.
And here's a hint: the Dems won't win by being more forthright, honest, and issues-oriented. That shit means nothing.
July 29, 2007 7:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
So an 11 percent increase means the number of 18 to 24 year-olds voting went from 10.2 million in 2000 to 11.6 million in 2004. Even assuming that the entire increase is due to increased interest and participation, if those extra 1.4 million young voters broke 65/35 Democratic, it means that Kerry got an extra 420,000 votes nationwide from this "surge" of renewed political commitment among 18 to 24 year-olds.
Well, he lost by over 2 million. I'm not sneezing at an extra 420,000 votes. If they'd all been in Ohio, Kerry would be president now. I'm just saying the Dems have whole lot more to do before they start congratulating themselves. How about harnessing some of that youthful energy to figure out a way to electronically steal back votes lost to Republican voting machines?
July 29, 2007 7:23 PM | Reply | Permalink