Romney Cites O'Hanlon and Pollack
The Des Moines Register reports that Mitt Romney told a small Iowa Republican gathering that it is too early to judge whether the surge has been a success, but also added, "I saw good news over the weekend," citing the writings of Michael O'Hanlon and Ken Pollack — long-time Iraq War advocates. "These are guys who have been critical of the handling of the war over the prior three years," Romney said. "They said the surge looks like it's working."

Poll: Most GOPers Still Don't Know Rudy Is Pro-Choice
An interesting number from yesterday's new Pew Poll: When Republicans and GOP-leaners are asked if they can name the Republican presidential candidate who is pro-choice, only 41% could correctly name Rudy Giuliani. Among self-described conservatives, the answer wasn't much better at a mere 47% correct.

Fletcher Gives Former Defense Counsel A State Appointment
Governor Ernie Fletcher (R-KY) has appointed Caroline Pitt Clark to the state's Public Service Commission. Clark's previous experience includes being a junior attorney on Fletcher's defense counsel in the state hiring scandals, where she did research and document drafting. Her father is Steve Pitt, who was one of the main defense lawyers for the scandal-plagued governor.

Beshear Defends Himself On The Ten Commandments
Meanwhile in Kentucky, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Steve Beshear defended himself for his 1981 opinion, when he was state attorney general, instructing schools to take down displays of the Ten Commandments. "It was my job to tell the school boards what the Supreme Court said. And I did. I followed the law," Beshear said. "And as governor I will follow the law. And wouldn't that be a refreshing change to have a governor that follows the law?"

Congressional Candidate Drops Out In New York, Setting Up Massa For A Rematch
Businessman David Nachbar has dropped out of the race in New York's 29th Congressional District, currently held by Republican Randy Kuhl. This seemingly leaves the Democratic nomination to Eric Massa, a former aide to General Wesley Clark, who has already declared his candidacy. Massa ran in 2006, losing to Kuhl by a 52%-48% margin.

Today Is Obama's Birthday
Barack Obama turns 46 today. The candidate is not idly celebrating, though — he's busy today at the YearlyKos convention. Congressional Quarterly has a of Obama's age and experience with other men who were elected or nominated for president since 1964.

Hillary Appearing At YearlyKos Forum
Despite some initially confusing reports, Hillary Clinton be appearing at the YearlyKos convention after all, including the small meetings with activists. Initial reports had Hillary being the only candidate to not meet privately with activists — likely the reason for reports that she would not appear at all — but she has rearranged her schedule to accommodate the small Q&A sessions.

Report: Obama's Remarks Spurring Burning Of American Flag In Pakistan
Check this out: The Associated Press is carrying this photo with the caption: "Pakistani protesters burn a U.S. flag to condemn U.S. presidential hopeful Barack Obama's remarks, Friday, Aug. 3, 2007, in Karachi, Pakistan. Pakistan criticized Obama for saying that, if elected, he might order unilateral military strikes inside this Islamic nation to root out terrorists."

State Department To Candidates: Your Words Mean Nothing
A State Department spokesman said presidential candidates pronouncements should have no impact on current policy. In other words: Shut up. "Those who wish to hold office can speak for themselves and whoever is elected in 2008 and comes into office in 2009 will then be in a position to talk about what they intend or plan to do," said deputy spokesman Tom Casey. Casey's remarks were likely spurred by both Barack Obama's recent talk about crossing the Pakistani border to catch Al Qaeda, plus Tom Tancredo's colorful remarks about attacking Muslim holy sites.

Gerson: Romney Should Campaign Positively On His Religion
Former Bush speechwriter Michael Gerson has a new column in the Washington Post making the case for Mitt Romney to Christian conservatives. Gerson discusses John F. Kennedy's approach of talking about how his religion would not dictate his actions in office — and then soundly rejects it. "Romney, however, should not make Kennedy's mistake and assert that all religious beliefs are unrelated to politics," Gerson writes. "What Mormonism shares with other religious traditions is a strong commitment to the value and dignity of human beings, including the unborn, the disabled and the poor."

Poll Confirms Giuliani's Strength On Terror And Weakness On Values
A new Gallup poll confirms the widely held belief that Republicans view Rudy Giuliani as too liberal on social issues, with 12 percent saying the worst thing about him is he is pro-choice and 10 percent saying it is that he is too liberal. Another 12 percent say he is inexperienced, though fully 18 percent consider his policies on terrorism to be one of the most positive aspects, more than any other category, plus 11 percent who list him as a "strong leader," an amorphous category that probably owes many of its responses to his image on terrorism.

Sidarth Backs Richardson
S.R. Sidarth, the former Jim Webb volunteer who helped change the direction of the Virginia Senate race when George Allen hurled a racial epithet at him, appeared at a YearlyKos forum to discuss his experiences in 2006, and what he's up to now. He now works in the communications office for Bill Richardson's campaign.

Sanders Holding Up Nussle Nomination For OMB
Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT), the Senate's lone self-identified socialist, says he has placed a hold on the nomination of former Congressman Jim Nussle (R-IA) to be the White House's Director of the Office of Management and Budget, on the grounds that the White House is "way out of touch with reality" on the economy, and that he "would love to hear from Mr. Nussle and the White House that instead of simply paying attention to the needs of the wealthiest people in this country that they are serious about addressing the concerns of the middle class and working families." In addition, one other senator has placed a hold on the nomination, but that senator's identity is unknown.

Murdoch Machine Takes A Clever Revenge On Edwards
Wingers favorite article of the day: John Edwards challenged other candidates to reject campaign contributions from employees of Rupert Murdoch's News Corp, purveyor of the Fox News Channel, but seems to have neglected to consider the $800,000 book contract he inked with Harper Collins, another News Corp subsidiary, for a book of photographs published in November. Edwards' share of the money went to charity — but nevertheless, anyone buying the book was inadvertently giving money to Murdoch. The best part? this piece of information is being publicized by none other than The New York Post, which just so happens to be owned by Rupert Murdoch. How's that for revenge?

With Barack Obama embroiled in major controversies over his recent terrorism speech and no-nukes remarks, we thought it would be illuminating to speak to one of his top foreign policy advisers.

And it was.

Greg Craig, a former State Department official under Clinton and now a top foreign policy adviser to Obama, spoke to us at some length, and in the interview, he clarified some of Obama's recent comments.

For instance, the Wedneday speech where Obama said he'd chase down terrorists in Pakistan without government approval has been somewhat misinterpreted, Craig said.

He said it shouldn't be viewed as a threat to Pakistan or proposing an "invasion" of the country, as rival campaigns and others have suggested. Instead it was meant to be a rebuke of President Bush's policies.

And he marveled at why Hillary Clinton chose to chastise Obama over his no-nukes comments when they were "absolutely" and "self-evidently" correct.

"There is not a military planner in the world that would say you should use nuclear weapons against non-state actors," Craig told Election Central. "When you have conventional weapons and they're suited to the task, why introduce that into the equation?"

More from Craig after the jump.

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Whew -- this is a relief.

GOP Presidential candidate Tom Tancredo's campaign today clarified his recent assertion that retaliating against terrorism with attacks on Muslim holy sites would be an effective deterrent to further terror. The campaign said that Tancredo's not committed to pursuing this strategy as President -- proving that he's "open-minded."

"He is open-minded and willing to embrace other options," senior Tancredo adviser Bay Buchanan told CNN today.

That is indeed reassuring. Still, it would be premature to get too relieved, however. Tancredo still thinks it's a good idea and has no intention of ruling it out, either.

“This shows that we mean business,” Buchanan said. “There’s no more effective deterrent than that.”

Fun postcript: A State Department spokesperson told CNN that Tancredo's comments were “reprehensible” and “absolutely crazy.”

Take a look at this memo that top Obama foreign policy adviser Samantha Power has just sent out about the Pakistan and no-nuke controversies to "interested parties" (read: reporters and pundits).

In it, she seeks to turn the current controversies over his foreign policy remarks into a larger story -- that the remarks prove he represents a clean break with the assumptions now driving the D.C. foreign policy establishment.

If you read it, you can see that one of the key challenges the Obama campaign faces in making this argument is to get people to see his initial opposition to the war as of a piece with a broader set of differences Obama may have with that establishment -- and to link that initial war opposition to the current Obama positions in a coherent way.

In a sense, Obama is using the controversy to now run against that establishment, using it as a foil, and turning his campaign into an indictment of it and of what he's arguing is a failed foreign policy status quo.

"Barack Obama defied conventional wisdom and opposed invading Iraq," the memo says. "Barack Obama was right; the conventional wisdom was wrong."

And:

"Over the last few weeks, Barack Obama has once again taken positions that challenge Washington’s conventional wisdom on foreign policy. And once again, pundits and politicians have leveled charges that are now bankrupt of credibility and devoid of the new ideas that the American people desperately want...Barack Obama’s judgment is right. It is conventional wisdom that has to change."

Full memo after the jump.

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More big gains for House Dems in 2008? That's what a comprehensive new poll by a Dem firm finds.

A new poll just out from Democracy Corps — the Democratic polling/consulting firm run by James Carville and Stan Greenberg — finds that Dems are poised to pick up a new batch of House seats next year, even as the number of vulnerable Dem seats dwindles.

The poll — which was conducted in 70 competitive districts, half held by the Democrats and half by the GOP — finds that the most vulnerable Democrats, who come largely from the ranks of freshmen who picked up Republican seats last year, are not in any great danger. "Democrats are ahead in their most vulnerable seats by 10 points, 51 to 41 percent, leaving the Republicans with few pickup opportunities," the pollsters say.

Meanwhile, Democrats lead in the most competitive tier of Republican-held seats, as well as in the second-tier trouping of vulnerable GOPers — meaning there could be vulnerable Republican seats even outside of the 35 tested. "This pattern that allowed the Democrats to take 30 seats in the last mid-term election could well take Democrats up to 20 in the Presidential, unless confounded by intervening events," the firm writes. "There really could be another wave election."

A 20-seat gain by Dems would bring their total to 253.

Hillary to Bush: Whose side are you on, Robert Gates' or Dick Cheney's?

As expected, Hillary Clinton has now taken her running battle with Cheney and a Pentagon official over Iraq contingency withdrawal planning all the way to the top, blasting President Bush and the Veep in a long letter to the President himself.

We've got an advance copy of the letter.

In it, Clinton was responding to Cheney's support for Under Secretary of Defense Eric Edelman's recent claim that her request for info about Pentagon withdrawal planning aided "enemy propaganda." Cheney agreed with Edelman in a recent interview, putting him directly at odds with Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who recently said he didn't share that aspect of Edelman's view.

Clinton sought to play up the division between Cheney and Gates in the letter, demanding that the President clarify whom he agreed with. She slammed Cheney for "impugning the patriotism of millions of Americans" and harshly criticized Bush, saying that his awful Iraq record had "earned" Congressional oversight.

"While it is not an uncommon occurrence for Vice President Cheney to offer support for, or participate in, politically motivated attacks against those who have a difference of opinion, it was surprising to see so outrageous a charge –- one which has been disavowed by the Secretary of Defense –- given credence by the vice president," Clinton wrote.

"I am writing to request a clarification on the position of your administration on the importance of Congress in overseeing our nation’s Iraq policy. Congress must hold your administration to the scrutiny which the Constitution demands and, frankly, your record in Iraq has earned."

By drawing attention to the feud, the letter furthers her policy goal of forcing the Pentagon to reveal info about withdrawal planning. But it also helps her politically, since a high-profile standoff with the White House and the Pentagon over Iraq would likely appeal to Dem primary voters and helps deflect rival Barack Obama's charge that her foreign policy positions are akin to "Bush Cheney lite."

Full letter after the jump.

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Here's an interesting backstage development in Congress' Iraq debate.

In another sign that House liberals are refusing to allow House GOPers to vote on toothless Iraq measures that would merely give them political cover, House liberals are pressuring the Dem leadership this week to kill another Iraq amendment that they view as far too weak because it wouldn't force withdrawal.

The latest target of the libs is an amendment sponsored by Dem Reps. Neil Abercrombie and John Tanner that would require the President to reveal the "status" of any withdrawal planning but contains no withdrawal timetable. Liberals earlier this week killed another measure by Rep. John Murtha because it lacked a "date certain" for withdrawal.

According to Hill sources, the Dem leadership called a private meeting yesterday, bringing together the bill's proponents and its liberal opponents, mostly members of the House progressive caucus. More after the jump.

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One of the stranger sublots of Campaign 2008 is the extent to which the big news orgs are desperate to see signs that the GOP candidates are "distancing" themselves from Bush on Iraq, when they plainly aren't doing this at all.

Case in point: Bloomberg News, which ran a story today making this claim. Incredibly, in an effort to bolster the argument that Rudy was doing this, Bloomberg actually cherry-picked quotes from an interview in which Rudy himself said he wasn't doing this at all. That latter quote, needless to say, didn't appear in the piece.

Congressional Dems are kicking off a big effort to turn around their plummeting approval rating in polls.

The three Democratic committees have teamed up to launch a new TV ad -- to air on national cable channels during Congressional recess -- touting the achievements of the new Congress and its efforts to take on George Bush to "end a war gone wrong":

The ad is part of a "Month of Action on Iraq" that will unfold as members of Congress head back to their districts and will include ads "targeting Republicans in their home states and districts, for their support of the failed President's Iraq policy," a statement reads. Text of the ad in the jump.

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Hawkish Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution -- a quintessential serious centrist Beltway foreign policy analyst who's been much maligned of late for saying the surge is working -- has now weighed in on the Obama-Hillary no-nukes flap.

His somewhat counterintuitive verdict? Obama was right:

Michael O'Hanlon, a Brookings Institution scholar, said Obama "clearly gave the right answer."

"He's certainly right to say you would never use a nuclear weapon to get Osama bin Laden," he said. He said that if intelligence officials were able to locate bin Laden with the precision required for a nuclear attack, they would also be able to catch or kill him by more conventional means that would not signal to the world that using nuclear force is acceptable.

One would have expected that such a quintessential member of the D.C. foreign policy establishment would immediately denounce Obama's line as a "gaffe." But he didn't. Go figure.

Dodd Takes On O'Reilly

Chris Dodd appeared on Bill O'Reilly's show yesterday, and got into an amusing argument with the manic right winger over Daily Kos. "What I'm stunned at, Mr. O'Reilly is the fact that you spend as much time here going after an online community gathering, where there are 500,000 people who visit that site on a daily basis here, to identify five, six, seven, eight objectionable, offensive cartoons or comments that people are making," Dodd said right off the bat. "I find that rather stunning, to be quite honest with you here." It got even crazier from there, with Dodd calling out O'Reilly for his past remarks in favor of Al Qaeda bombing San Francisco, and O'Reilly denying he ever said it and screaming at Dodd about Media Matters.

Pakistan Hits Back At Obama

Officials in Pakistan have blasted Barack Obama for promising to approve unsanctioned missions in their territory. "It's a very irresponsible statement, that's all I can say," Pakistan's Foreign Minister Khusheed Kasuri said. "As the election campaign in America is heating up we would not like American candidates to fight their elections and contest elections at our expense." An official also blasted Tom Tancredo for suggesting nuking Mecca in retaliation for a terrorist attack.

Poll: Iowa Dem Contest A Three-Way Tie

A new Washington Post/ABC News poll shows the Iowa caucus to be a three-way tie on the Democratic side: Obama 27%, Clinton 26%, Edwards 26%, followed by Bill Richardson at 11%. While 36% of respondents say Hillary Clinton is the strongest leader, and 50% say she has the best experience to be president, Obama leads in other categories: 30% say he is the most honest and trustworthy, 26% say he is the closest to them on the issues. Obama and Edwards are tied at 33% each for "most likeable," with Hillary a distant third at 14%.

McCain Supporting New, Enforcement-Only Immigration Bill

After his serious defeat passing an immigration bill in the Senate, John McCain is now supporting a new bill that does not contain a guest-worker program or other provisions that critics derided as amnesty. Instead, this bill is focused entirely on enforcement and border security — just the sort of issues that the GOP base has valued. "The failure of the Senate to pass comprehensive immigration was a huge disappointment," McCain said in a statement. "Although we must move forward with other issues, we can show the American people that we are serious about securing our nation's border."

Thompson Not Pulling Too Many Donors From Other Candidates

An analysis of Fred Thompson's tax fillings show that the vast majority of his donors are contributing for the first time this cycle and therefore his late entry – or rather, non-entry – to the race hasn't pulled donors away from the declared candidates as some had feared, the New York Times reports. Thompson raised at least $134,000 from people who had given to Mitt Romney; at least $88,000 from people who gave to John McCain, and at least $74,000 from Rudy Giuliani's donors.

Gingrich: War On Terror Is "Phony"

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich chastised recent Republican stewardship of the country, saying that the Bush Administration is waging a "phony war" on terrorism while the most effective strategy would be reducing dependence on foreign oil. "None of you should believe we are winning this war," Gingrich said to a gathering of conservative college students. "We were in charge for six years," he said, referring to the recent period when the GOP controlled the White House and both houses of Congress. "I don't think you can look and say that was a great success."

Hagel: What's My Party Again?

Chuck Hagel (R-NE) and a group of other senators including Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Arlen Spector (R-PA) held a book release party for their colleague Joe Biden, whose book Promises to Keep just hit the shelves. Hagel, who was Biden's pick when he responded to a question at the last debate about which Republican could be his running mate, addressed the largely Democratic crowd and perhaps fell victim to osmosis. "Hell, I don't know what party I belong to any more," Hagel joked.

Huckabee Releases YouTube In Support Of YouTube Debate

Mike Huckabee's campaign posted a video of the candidate standing in front of what appears to be a soy bean field, encouraging his rivals to join the YouTube debate. "Personally, I'm in ... Yeah, it may be a little different, but you know what? This campaign oughtta be different. It oughtta be different than the same old tired worn out talking about things that consultants have written, and talking about things that the American people want to talk about," Huckabee says.

In Minnesota, Franken And Ciresi Suspend Campaigns — But RNC Continues On

Al Franken and Mike Ciresi, who are running against each other for the Democratic nomination for Senate, have both suspended their campaign activities in light of yesterday's tragic bridge collapse. This includes the cancellation of a scheduled appearance by Franken on the David Letterman show. On the other hand, the New York Times reports that the Republican National Committee is continuing with their summer meeting in Minneapolis, which had already begun yesterday and continues through Saturday, with appearances by Ann Romney, Rudy Giuliani's campaign manager Michael DuHaime, First Lady Laura Bush, Governor Tim Pawlenty and others.

TNR Confirms The Writings Of "Scott Thomas"

The New Republic has put out an official statement on Scott Thomas Beauchamp, the Soldier in Iraq who has written of various tales of horror going on in the country. Beauchamp's stories prompted days and days of attacks on TNR from a whole battery of winger blogs, who made all sorts of wild claims about his alleged fraudulence, mendacity and worse.

But as it turns out, TNR's thorough fact-checking of his pieces has found only a single error: Beauchamp misremembered a conversation he had at a base in Kuwait, writing that it had occurred inside of Iraq. Other than that, everything he wrote about — from troops finding mass graves and playing sick games with the bones, to cruelty to injured Iraqis and even dogs — all checked out. We're sure the mea culpas will be coming on the winger blogs any day now.

Clintons, Giuliani, Howard Dean, All Set To Descend On Hamptons This Weekend

In what has become an annual ritual of sorts, a whole bunch of high-profile candidates are all heading out to the Hamptons this weekend to raise money from wealthy east-enders. The coming swarm of pols — including the Clintons, Rudy, and Howard Dean — has the locals simultaneously looking forward to their arrival, and dreading it, too. The absolute best line about this goes to Democratic strategist and top fundraiser Robert Zimmerman, who drolly noted: "Forget the traffic. The political egos alone will clog the area."

Kos: Hillary Respects Us

Courtesy of Ben Smith at the YearlyKos convention, Markos "Kos" Moulitsas spoke well of the Democratic presidential candidates — and noted how the liberal blogosphere has earned a newfound respect from the party establishment. "Hillary's response these last couple weeks defending Daily Kos and Yearly Kos and the Netroots from Fox News partisans is a sign of growing respect," Kos said. "A year ago there wasn't that respect within her inner circle."

Romney: Cut Off Funds To Cities That Harbor Illegal Immigrants

Mitt Romney told an Iowa crowd that so-called "sanctuary cities" — where the local authorities don't turn illegal immigrants over to the federal government — should pay a penalty via their federal subsidies. The Des Moines Register is interpreting the pronouncement as thinly-veiled shot at Rudy Giuliani, whose New York City administration did not actively police immigration and only turned over violent offenders to the federal government. "We send hundreds of millions of dollars to these cities, even billions of dollars, from the federal government," Romney said. "We ought to stop doing that."

Hillary And Obama Both Get High-Profile Gay Endorsements In One Day

Hillary Clinton's campaign announced today the endorsement of Wisconsin Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin, who in 1998 became the first and so far only openly gay person to be elected to Congress as a non-incumbent. Meanwhile, New Hampshire's openly gay Episcopalian bishop, Gene Robinson, has announced his support for Barack Obama.

Don Young Has Cordial Meeting With Lobbyist Who Is Also His Dem Opponent

Congressional Quarterly reports that scandal-plagued Rep. Don Young (R-AK) today met with Jake Metcalfe, an Alaska lobbyist for the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers. Metcalfe wanted to thank Young for crossing party lines to support legislation making it easier to form a union. And the meeting went well — even though Metcalfe has filed to be Young's opponent. "It was a bit of a bold move, but being visited by an Alaskan was appreciated, as always," said a spokeswoman for Young.

Club For Growth Releases TV Attack Ad Against Huckabee

The Club For Growth is targeting Mike Huckabee in the run-up to the Ames straw poll next weekend, clearly hoping to blunt any appeal he might have with state's religious right GOP base. This TV ad, with a buy costing a total of $85,000, attacks Huckabee for raising various taxes when he was governor of Arkansas, tax hikes that Huckabee has said were necessary to improve the state's ragged infrastructure.

The battle going on between Mike Huckabee and Sam Brownback for the religious right base has officially taken a turn into the absurd.

David Brody reports that Mike Huckabee's campaign has sent a letter refusing to apologize for anti-Catholic remarks made by one of his supporters against the Catholic convert from Kansas — after all, the Huckabee camp says, they were not in any way responsible for the remarks.

Here's the fun part. The Huckabee campaign letter went further by accusing Brownback and his own supporters of all sorts of character flaws, based on a Website called Baptists for Brownback, which declares that Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and even Fred Thompson are headed for Hell.

One problem, however: Turns out that "Baptists for Brownback" is actually an anti-Brownback parody site!

More after the jump.

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Chris Dodd also comes out against Obama, releasing a statement this afternoon not long after Obama said he'd rule out the use of nukes against terrorists in Afghanistan and Pakistan:

"Over the past several days, Senator Obama's assertions about foreign and military affairs have been, frankly, confusing and confused. He has made threats he should not make and made unwise categorical statements about military options.

"We are facing a dangerous and complicated world. The next President will require a level of understanding and judgment unprecedented in American history to address these challenges."

I have to say that it's not fully clear to me what Dodd is saying with respect to Obama's remarks today. Obama said he'd rule out using nukes against terrorists in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Hillary said you shouldn't rule that out. Dodd, however, is merely saying you shouldn't make "categorical statements about military options." This appears to suggest he agrees with Hillary that Obama shouldn't have ruled out nukes -- without quite saying it.

The ongoing Hillary-Obama skirmish has flared up into a major firefight this afternoon, with Clinton chiding Obama at a press conference for ruling out the use of nukes against terrorists in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Earlier today Obama was asked by the Associated Press whether he'd consider using nukes against terrorists in Afghanistan or Pakistan. His answer was No:

"I think it would be a profound mistake for us to use nuclear weapons in any circumstance," Obama said, with a pause, "involving civilians." Then he quickly added, "Let me scratch that. There's been no discussion of nuclear weapons. That's not on the table."

Hillary has now responded by chiding Obama for ruling out the use of nukes. Here's what she said today at a press conference, according to a transcript provided by the Senator's office:

"I think that presidents should be very careful at all times in discussing the use or non-use of nuclear weapons. Presidents, since the Cold War, have used nuclear deterrence to keep the peace. And I don't believe that any president should make any blanket statements with respect to the use or non-use of nuclear weapons."

The exchange reminds us again that the ongoing Hillary-Obama standoff has become a high-stakes, point-of-no-return political duel for both sides.

In a nutshell, Hillary is seeking to paint Obama as too green to be "commander in chief" without alienating rank-and-file Dems who might be put off by the suggestions of her hawkishness that such criticism produces. Obama, meanwhile, is trying to argue that he represents a clean break with the assumptions that have long undergirded Washington consensus foreign policy opinion in such a way that doesn't leave him vulnerable to the inevitable charge that he's showing "weakness."

More soon.

"Embattled Rep. Rick Renzi (R-Ariz.) tapped down speculation Thursday that he is telling his allies that he will not seek re-election — but he appears to be leaning toward the exit door rather than seeking a fourth term."

So reports Roll Call. Nor does the Muck-encrusted Renzi appear to be doing much to deny that he's on his way out, either. He gave this choice quote to the paper: “To be honest, I was never going to be here a great while. I’m a businessman at heart.” The paper adds that a "senior leadership source" expects Renzi to retire.

Three Dems are competing for the chance to unseat Renzi, probably because of his Muck-prince status. TPMmuckraker's full coverage of Renzi is here.

A new Pew poll finds that Hillary has sharply expanded her national lead over Barack Obama among registered Democrats and independents who lean Dem -- and now leads him nearly two to one:

Clinton 40% Obama 21% Gore 12% Edwards 11%

Hillary's 19 point lead over Obama is nearly double the 10 point lead she had in the April Pew poll, which found her leading Obama 34%-24%. Pew says that support for Hillary has gone up most "among independent Democrats, liberals and moderates, college graduates, middle-aged and older voters."

Meanwhile, on the GOP side, Rudy leads the pack with 27%, but his lead appears to have slipped as Thompson gained:

Since April, Giuliani support has declined (32% to 27%) as has McCain's (23% to 16%) while Thompson has gained significantly (10% to 18%.). Thompson has caught up to Giuliani among independents who lean Republican, as Giuliani's support has fallen by half.

Courtesy of some rather boneheaded behavior on the part of the Associated Press -- and some lack of clarity from Obama -- there's been a bit of a dust-up today over whether Barack Obama is ruling out the use of nukes in all circumstances.

The latest version of the Associated Press story on this reports that Obama ruled out nukes to fight terrorists in Afghanistan and Pakistan:

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama said Thursday he would not use nuclear weapons "in any circumstance" to fight terrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

"I think it would be a profound mistake for us to use nuclear weapons in any circumstance," Obama said, with a pause, "involving civilians." Then he quickly added, "Let me scratch that. There's been no discussion of nuclear weapons. That's not on the table."

Obama was responding to a question by the Associated Press about whether there was any circumstance where he would be prepared or willing to use nuclear weapons to defeat terrorism and al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden.

Oddly, though, even though this is what the AP had asked Obama, the wire's earlier version of this story said this:

The Dem-controlled House of Representatives has just voted in favor of letting troops home from Iraq get more rest, passing a version of Senator Jim Webb's troop rest bill by a comfortable margin, 229-194.

Alas, the measure giving troops more time off won't become law anytime soon, however -- thanks to the GOP Senate leadership. As you may recall, the GOP managed to successfully block the measure from coming to a vote in early July. That's because giving more rest to the troops would have slowed down President Bush's Iraq War.

You can look at this as confirmation of an old adage attributed (apocryphally, perhaps) to George Washington: That the Senate is the saucer to the House's cup -- that is, the Senate is the place where the passions of the electorate, which find expression in the House, are poured and cooled off.

Or you can look at it as confirmation of what Reid said when the Senate vote was filibustered: "Some of my Republican colleagues would rather protect the president than protect the troops."

What exactly is Rudy Giuliani's position on whether Bill Clinton was to blame for 9/11?

Back in June, Rudy appeared to insinuate that Clinton was to blame. He suggested that 9/11 was the culmination of Clinton's approach to terrorism, which he described as: "Don’t react, let things go, kind of act the way Clinton did in the ’90s."

But just last night on Charlie Rose, Rudy appeared to soften his criticism:

Rudy told Charlie Rose, "I'm not faulting Clinton for this," adding: "He didn't know the future anymore than I knew the future."

Before, Rudy said that Clinton had failed to "react" and "let things go" when confronted with a visible threat, resulting in 9/11 -- something Rudy clearly intended as an attack. Now, he's saying that Clinton wasn't at fault -- and even suggesting that he would have handled things similiarly.

True, Rudy is still hanging on to one piece of his criticism of Clinton -- that his anti-terror policies weren't aggressive enough, something which is at odds with key aspects of the public record. But Rudy's clearly softening the tone of his criticism, clearly backing off his earlier insinuation that Clinton should be blamed in any way. In a sense, he's come 360 degrees. He's returned to the original position he held back in September, before he was running in a GOP primary, which is that Clinton doesn't deserve any of the blame for 9/11.

Update: As commenter MarcNYC notes, Rudy's tone shifts dramatically depending on what forum he's in. When speaking to the Fox audience, he slams Bill for not reacting and letting things go. But when in the calm and rational precincts of Charlie Rose, he's suddenly Mr. Reasonable himself.

Which Democratic presidential candidates is viewed unfavorably by more Dem voters, Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama? If you answered Hillary ... you'd be wrong, at least according to the latest Rasmussen poll:

Clinton is now viewed favorably by 82% of Democrats, Obama by 66%. Those figures include 43% with a Very Favorable opinion of Clinton. Thirty-three percent (33%) have such a positive view of Obama. Just 16% of Democrats have an unfavorable view of Clinton while 30% hold such a view of Obama.

If so, it's interesting — and counterintuitive, given the criticism of Hillary's war vote, for instance — that Hillary doesn't seem to generate the same feeling of resentment among her opponents' backers as Obama does. Anyone have a better explanation for this?

With friends like these...

Vets For Freedom, the right's answer to VoteVets.org, is running a new TV ad in Minnesota explicitly thanking GOP Senator Norm Coleman for his continued support of the war, the Star-Tribune reports today.

The ad — which will run during the Sunday chat shows, though the total size of the buy is unknown — features pro-war Iraq veterans thanking Coleman for "supporting our mission in Iraq" and for "not tying the hands of our commanders." Here's the ad:

More after the jump.

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A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll finds that whatever advantage the GOP had on the question of which party was more trusted to handle terrorism has completely evaporated.

The poll finds that the two parties are exactly tied on this question, with 29% saying they trust Dems more, and 29% saying they trust the GOP.

Other surveys have reached similar findings. But in this particular survey, this is the first time that the GOP hasn't held a substantial lead on this question. The poll says the question has been asked all the way back to 2002.

Meanwhile, the poll finds Bush's approval rating mired at 31%.

Update: Marc Ambinder writes: "The press still writes about counterterrorism as if it is a trademark Republican wedge issue and seems collectively surprised when Democrats offer aggressive proposals that go against the grain." So, a question: Will this dynamic continue to hold if surveys start to show very clearly that Dems have taken the lead on the question?

John Edwards is condemning Rupert Murdoch's impending takeover of Wall Street Journal and challenging all the Dem Presidential rivals to return all campaign donations to Rupert Murdoch.

“News Corp’s purchase of the Dow Jones Co. and The Wall Street Journal should be the last straw when it comes to media consolidation," Edwards said in a statement just emailed out by his campaign. "I’m challenging every Democratic presidential candidate to refuse contributions from News Corp executives and return any they've already taken, beginning with Rupert Murdoch."

Murdoch has hosted a fundraiser for Hillary Clinton and contributed $2300 to her Presidential campaign this spring.

As reported below, Chris Dodd yesterday became the first Presidential candidate to condemn Murdoch's impending takeover of The Journal.

As I noted yesterday, it was a bit surprising that John Edwards had remained silent on the issue -- particularly since the Edwards campaign had been out front in attacking right wing media figures, particularly Murdoch's Fox News, as a way of appealing to Dem primary voters.

Today, Edwards has come out swinging, however -- proving once again the extent to which targeting winger media types has become de rigeur for Dem Presidential candidates. Edwards' full statement after the jump.

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This is a bit akin to beating a horse that passed away sometime in the Middle Ages, but one facet of today's New York Times coverage of the Iraq debate really strayed into Fox News and MSNBC territory.

In a big front page piece today about ongoing clashes between war supporters and critics, Times reporter Mark Mazzetti quoted the infamous Op-ed by Kenneth Pollack and Michael O'Hanlon, describing them only as "occasional critics of the Bush administration’s war strategy."

Memo to Mazzetti and Times editors: It's far more important for readers to know that these two have been among the most prominent and relentless boosters of both the initial invasion and the "surge" than it is for them to know that they are "occasional critics" of the war. Without that info, readers are utterly helpless -- they have no way of evaluating Pollack and O'Hanlon's motives or judgment, and have no way of knowing that there's nothing at all counterintuitive about their Op ed conclusions. Anyone serious about informing readers would have included it.

Look, you expect the cable nets to act like useful idiots in this manner. But for the august and mighty Paper of Record to play this game is just indefensible. Particularly since The Times published the Op ed in the first place -- allowing the authors to obscure their longtime war boosterism and to trumpet optimism about Iraq that was at odds with research O'Hanlon himself conducted for the Brookings Institution.

Come on, now. Let's get this stuff right. Inform your readers. This is important.

The Broke John McCain Carries His Own Luggage

John McCain has been flying commercial these days, traveling with only one or two aides and no national media in tow. He also relies on supporters to drive him to and from events, which no longer have steam-pressed American flags as backdrops or abundant pastries. "In the words of Chairman Mao, it's always darkest before it's totally black," McCain said. "I never have a new joke. But my old one is that we were at 3 percent and the poll had a 5 percent margin of error (in 1999)."

New York Times Botches Coverage Of Iraq Debate

Today's Times coverage of the public relations battle over the Iraq war strays into bad Fox News and MSNBC territory.

Rudy's Friendship With Top Fox Exec Could Prove Useful

The New York Times examines how Roger Ailes, head of the Fox News Channel, has a longtime friendship with candidate Rudy Giuliani. Ailes served as media director on Rudy's mayoral campaign, later called on him to secure a spot for Fox on cable in New York, and recently joined him as a guest of Rupert Murdoch at the White House Correspondents Dinner. Fox News denies this would influence coverage, and says Giuliani's frontrunner status is the real reason why he has spent more time on the network than the other candidates.

Obama Campaign To Hold "Faith Forums" In South Carolina

Barack Obama's campaign is planning this month to hold a series of meetings in South Carolina, dubbed "faith forums." Joshua Dubois, the campaign's director of religious outreach, will meet with members of the clergy as well as religious Obama supporters, and discuss Obama's beliefs and the campaign's thoughts on what role religion can play in politics.

Dems Offer New Wiretapping Proposal

Congressional Democrats have crafted a new compromise proposal in response from the Bush Administration's pressure to expand it's ability to conduct surveillance. The compromise would create a secret court to approve eavesdropping on communication between people overseas and those in the United States, requiring investigators prove the target, which doesn't need to be specified, is indeed"likely" overseas. A "significant" number of contacts would require probable cause.

NRSC Launching Fight Against Johnson

Sen John Ensign (R-NV), who chairs the GOP's senate election committee, said yesterday that he is no longer putting off a 2008 challenge to Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD), despite the fact Johnson still has not returned to the Senate after a brain hemorrhage. "It's time," Ensign said. "Obviously, we are all still concerned. But this is a United States Senate seat. He was a top target before his health problems and he's still a top target."

New Hampshire House Speaker Joins Hillary

Terie Norelli, the Speaker of the New Hampshire house, will join Hillary Clinton on the campaign trail as a co-chair, an endorsement that was widely anticipated. "I'll do everything I can to help get Sen. Clinton elected," Norelli said, citing Clinton's impressive experience and proven capabilities as the reason for her decision.

DNC To Make Comprehensive Study Of Voting Systems

The Democratic National Committee is expected to announce today a large-scale, county by county study of how voting is conducted throughout the country. The special committee will talk to election officials in the more than 3,000 counties in this country, and will compile information on the types of voting machines, how many are allotted per polling place, how absentee ballots and voter registration forms are handled, and other issues. "Our candidates need to know how elections work in every single precinct," said DNC chairman Howard Dean. "That is an enormous advantage when you’re going up against a party that is essentially a vote suppressor."

Here Comes Brownback "Girl"

Wichita-based satirist Bucky Walters has come up with his own answer to "Obama Girl" — this sketch modeled after Dana Carvey's old "Church Lady" character from Saturday Night Live:

House Progressives Sink Murtha's Withdrawal Proposal

Rep. Jack Murtha's latest proposal for withdrawal to begin in 60 days appears to be dead. It's unclear exactly why, but one reason is that House progressives opposed the measure because it didn't have a "date certain" for the completion of troop withdrawal. Progressives view any measure without a firm withdrawal timetable as a retreat. The Hill also notes that "there are indications that House leadership had a hand" in killing the bill — perhaps because Murtha apparently didn't consult with leadership before proposing it.

Romney Calls For "Surge Of Support" For Troops

Mitt Romney said he would donate $25,000 of his own money to seven organizations that benefit soldiers, including the USO Care Packages and Operation Thank You, encouraging others to do the same. "I would like to show a surge of public support that can communicate to our troops over there that we care, we appreciate what you are doing, we want you to come home as soon as you can safe and sound," Romney said. His comments were greeted with great applause.

Novak: Hillary Won The Foreign Leaders Fight

Bob Novak writes on what his Democratic sources have said about the Hillary/Obama flap on meeting with foreign leaders: "The consensus among Democrats is that Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) was the clear winner in the dispute with Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) over meeting with foreign despots as President. It went to his greatest political weakness: his presumed inexperience compared with Clinton. Former President Bill Clinton's intervention in the dispute keeps it in the news and ends it while she's way ahead."

Lieberman, Klobuchar and Alexander Propose New Primary System

Senators Joe Lieberman (ID-CT), Amy Klobuchar (DFL-MN) and Lamar Alexander (R-TN) are joining together to propose federal legislation mandating a new presidential primary system. "Primaries were not intended to be an arms race," said Klobuchar, referring to how so many states have rushed to hold their contests on February 5. Under this proposed system — which would face an uphill battle, to say the least — the traditional Iowa and New Hampshire kickoffs would be followed by four regional contests (the South, Northeast, Midwest and West) being held once a month and in a random order.

Huckabee Won't Apologize For Brownback/Catholic Flap

Mike Huckabee struck a conciliatory tone in response to an outraged Sam Brownback but stopped short of apologizing for a supporter who sent out an e-mail criticizing Brownback's conversion to Catholicism and calling Huckabee "one of us." Huckabee said the comments were not authorized in any way by the campaign. "As believers, we don't have time to fight each other," he said.

Romney On A Tear Against Bush Achievements In New Hampshire

Stumping in New Hampshire today, Mitt Romney criticized the Department of Homeland Security and the reconstruction of the Gulf Coast. He called the government's efforts to rebuild after Katrina "a disappointing process" despite "one heck of a lot of money". The Department of Homeland Security was "one big bureaucracy" that is too focused on equipment "that's going to be used after the bomb goes off," something he hopes to prevent. "There is such duplication in Washington that you'd really like to take the place apart and put it back together, just smaller and simpler and smarter," Romney said. Good luck, Governor.

Richardson Launches Television Ad To Plug Website

Warning: this ad may cause dizziness. "On clean energy, a 30 second TV ad isn't enough time," Bill Richardson says in a new 30-second spot. Perhaps that's why he needs to dance around the screen:

Romney Releases Video Of Scripted Talk With His Family

Via The New Republic, Mitt Romney's campaign has produced a video, depicting him with his family in a discussion over whether or not to run. Bottom line: Candidates will often have these discussions in private with their loved ones, but give us a break. This video is obviously so scripted, staged and artificial, that it just reeks of phoniness. If someone actually believes this is is a real meeting of the Romney family, they probably think Fred Thompson has important experience as the Manhattan District Attorney, too.

The Dem Presidential candidates are beginning to weigh in on Barack Obama's foreign policy speech today -- and suffice it to say that they're not happy about it.

Dodd rapped Obama for saying he'd hunt terrorists in Pakistan without permission:

"Frankly, I am not sure what Barack is calling for in his speech this morning. But it is dangerous and irresponsible to leave even the impression the United States would needlessly and publicly provoke a nuclear power."

More response after the jump.

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According to Robert Novak, Republicans are very, very, very worried that they're going to sustain yet more Senate losses in 2008.

"Republican melancholy grows with prospect of major losses in the Senate," Novak reports in his latest column. "Sen. John Sununu (R-N.H.) is severely endangered. The expectation in Virginia now is that Sen. John Warner (R) will not seek another term, opening the door for a Senate run by former Gov. Mark Warner (D)."

Adding to GOP woes, Novak continues: "former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) and her husband are telling supporters that there is about a 70 percent chance that she will run" against Sununu.

As our Election Central Poll Tracker shows, Shaheen already leads Sununu by a huge margin in different opinion polls. A decision is expected from Shaheen this fall.

Top Hillary pollster Mark Penn appears to criticize the campaign's handling of a high-profile skirmish with Barack Obama in an interview that was published in today's New York Observer.

Penn had been asked what he thought of the Hillary campaign's very aggressive response a few months back to comments made by David Geffen, a Hollywood exec and top Obama fundraiser who was scorchingly critical of both Bill and Hillary in an interview with The Times at the time.

From The Observer:

Asked about the aggressive public response of Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson to comments from Obama supporter David Geffen, Mr. Penn said, “I don’t think that played out very well.”

“It’s very important in politics not to make the same mistake too many times,” he said. “If we had that one to do over again we would probably approach it differently.”

By way of context, this sort of public questioning of tactics almost never happens in Hillaryland.

Update: Edited slightly from original; Penn's quotes could mean he was merely critiquing the whole campaign's handling of the issue.

This fight isn't going away -- and nor does Hillary want it to.

Escalating her battle with the White House over the Pentagon's contingency Iraq withdrawal planning, Hillary Clinton has written a sharply worded letter directly to Vice President Dick Cheney, demanding that the administration clarify its position as to whether her ongoing request for info about such planning is aiding enemy propaganda.

In the letter, an advance copy of which was obtained by Election Central, Clinton was responding to Cheney's assertion yesterday on CNN that he agreed with Under Secretary of Defense Eric Edelman, who recently opined that Clinton's request for such info aided "enemy propaganda."

Clinton blasted Cheney in the letter for "innacuracies" in his account and pointed out that Cheney's comments had put him directly at odds with Defense Secretary Robert Gates. The SecDef recently assured Clinton that he didn't agree with that aspect of Edelman's assessment.

"Your comments, agreeing with Under Secretary Edelman, not Secretary Gates, have left me wondering about the true position of the Administration," Clinton wrote. "Therefore, I am writing to President Bush asking that he set the record straight about the Administration's position regarding the role of Congress in oversight of the war."

The letter -- and Clinton's ongoing feud with the White House