Romney Cites O'Hanlon and Pollack
The Des Moines Register reports that Mitt Romney told a small Iowa Republican gathering that it is too early to judge whether the surge has been a success, but also added, "I saw good news over the weekend," citing the writings of Michael O'Hanlon and Ken Pollack — long-time Iraq War advocates. "These are guys who have been critical of the handling of the war over the prior three years," Romney said. "They said the surge looks like it's working."

Poll: Most GOPers Still Don't Know Rudy Is Pro-Choice
An interesting number from yesterday's new Pew Poll: When Republicans and GOP-leaners are asked if they can name the Republican presidential candidate who is pro-choice, only 41% could correctly name Rudy Giuliani. Among self-described conservatives, the answer wasn't much better at a mere 47% correct.

Fletcher Gives Former Defense Counsel A State Appointment
Governor Ernie Fletcher (R-KY) has appointed Caroline Pitt Clark to the state's Public Service Commission. Clark's previous experience includes being a junior attorney on Fletcher's defense counsel in the state hiring scandals, where she did research and document drafting. Her father is Steve Pitt, who was one of the main defense lawyers for the scandal-plagued governor.

Beshear Defends Himself On The Ten Commandments
Meanwhile in Kentucky, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Steve Beshear defended himself for his 1981 opinion, when he was state attorney general, instructing schools to take down displays of the Ten Commandments. "It was my job to tell the school boards what the Supreme Court said. And I did. I followed the law," Beshear said. "And as governor I will follow the law. And wouldn't that be a refreshing change to have a governor that follows the law?"

Congressional Candidate Drops Out In New York, Setting Up Massa For A Rematch
Businessman David Nachbar has dropped out of the race in New York's 29th Congressional District, currently held by Republican Randy Kuhl. This seemingly leaves the Democratic nomination to Eric Massa, a former aide to General Wesley Clark, who has already declared his candidacy. Massa ran in 2006, losing to Kuhl by a 52%-48% margin.

Today Is Obama's Birthday
Barack Obama turns 46 today. The candidate is not idly celebrating, though — he's busy today at the YearlyKos convention. Congressional Quarterly has a of Obama's age and experience with other men who were elected or nominated for president since 1964.

Hillary Appearing At YearlyKos Forum
Despite some initially confusing reports, Hillary Clinton be appearing at the YearlyKos convention after all, including the small meetings with activists. Initial reports had Hillary being the only candidate to not meet privately with activists — likely the reason for reports that she would not appear at all — but she has rearranged her schedule to accommodate the small Q&A sessions.

Report: Obama's Remarks Spurring Burning Of American Flag In Pakistan
Check this out: The Associated Press is carrying this photo with the caption: "Pakistani protesters burn a U.S. flag to condemn U.S. presidential hopeful Barack Obama's remarks, Friday, Aug. 3, 2007, in Karachi, Pakistan. Pakistan criticized Obama for saying that, if elected, he might order unilateral military strikes inside this Islamic nation to root out terrorists."

State Department To Candidates: Your Words Mean Nothing
A State Department spokesman said presidential candidates pronouncements should have no impact on current policy. In other words: Shut up. "Those who wish to hold office can speak for themselves and whoever is elected in 2008 and comes into office in 2009 will then be in a position to talk about what they intend or plan to do," said deputy spokesman Tom Casey. Casey's remarks were likely spurred by both Barack Obama's recent talk about crossing the Pakistani border to catch Al Qaeda, plus Tom Tancredo's colorful remarks about attacking Muslim holy sites.

Gerson: Romney Should Campaign Positively On His Religion
Former Bush speechwriter Michael Gerson has a new column in the Washington Post making the case for Mitt Romney to Christian conservatives. Gerson discusses John F. Kennedy's approach of talking about how his religion would not dictate his actions in office — and then soundly rejects it. "Romney, however, should not make Kennedy's mistake and assert that all religious beliefs are unrelated to politics," Gerson writes. "What Mormonism shares with other religious traditions is a strong commitment to the value and dignity of human beings, including the unborn, the disabled and the poor."

Poll Confirms Giuliani's Strength On Terror And Weakness On Values
A new Gallup poll confirms the widely held belief that Republicans view Rudy Giuliani as too liberal on social issues, with 12 percent saying the worst thing about him is he is pro-choice and 10 percent saying it is that he is too liberal. Another 12 percent say he is inexperienced, though fully 18 percent consider his policies on terrorism to be one of the most positive aspects, more than any other category, plus 11 percent who list him as a "strong leader," an amorphous category that probably owes many of its responses to his image on terrorism.

Sidarth Backs Richardson
S.R. Sidarth, the former Jim Webb volunteer who helped change the direction of the Virginia Senate race when George Allen hurled a racial epithet at him, appeared at a YearlyKos forum to discuss his experiences in 2006, and what he's up to now. He now works in the communications office for Bill Richardson's campaign.

Sanders Holding Up Nussle Nomination For OMB
Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT), the Senate's lone self-identified socialist, says he has placed a hold on the nomination of former Congressman Jim Nussle (R-IA) to be the White House's Director of the Office of Management and Budget, on the grounds that the White House is "way out of touch with reality" on the economy, and that he "would love to hear from Mr. Nussle and the White House that instead of simply paying attention to the needs of the wealthiest people in this country that they are serious about addressing the concerns of the middle class and working families." In addition, one other senator has placed a hold on the nomination, but that senator's identity is unknown.

Murdoch Machine Takes A Clever Revenge On Edwards
Wingers favorite article of the day: John Edwards challenged other candidates to reject campaign contributions from employees of Rupert Murdoch's News Corp, purveyor of the Fox News Channel, but seems to have neglected to consider the $800,000 book contract he inked with Harper Collins, another News Corp subsidiary, for a book of photographs published in November. Edwards' share of the money went to charity — but nevertheless, anyone buying the book was inadvertently giving money to Murdoch. The best part? this piece of information is being publicized by none other than The New York Post, which just so happens to be owned by Rupert Murdoch. How's that for revenge?

With Barack Obama embroiled in major controversies over his recent terrorism speech and no-nukes remarks, we thought it would be illuminating to speak to one of his top foreign policy advisers.

And it was.

Greg Craig, a former State Department official under Clinton and now a top foreign policy adviser to Obama, spoke to us at some length, and in the interview, he clarified some of Obama's recent comments.

For instance, the Wedneday speech where Obama said he'd chase down terrorists in Pakistan without government approval has been somewhat misinterpreted, Craig said.

He said it shouldn't be viewed as a threat to Pakistan or proposing an "invasion" of the country, as rival campaigns and others have suggested. Instead it was meant to be a rebuke of President Bush's policies.

And he marveled at why Hillary Clinton chose to chastise Obama over his no-nukes comments when they were "absolutely" and "self-evidently" correct.

"There is not a military planner in the world that would say you should use nuclear weapons against non-state actors," Craig told Election Central. "When you have conventional weapons and they're suited to the task, why introduce that into the equation?"

More from Craig after the jump.

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Whew -- this is a relief.

GOP Presidential candidate Tom Tancredo's campaign today clarified his recent assertion that retaliating against terrorism with attacks on Muslim holy sites would be an effective deterrent to further terror. The campaign said that Tancredo's not committed to pursuing this strategy as President -- proving that he's "open-minded."

"He is open-minded and willing to embrace other options," senior Tancredo adviser Bay Buchanan told CNN today.

That is indeed reassuring. Still, it would be premature to get too relieved, however. Tancredo still thinks it's a good idea and has no intention of ruling it out, either.

“This shows that we mean business,” Buchanan said. “There’s no more effective deterrent than that.”

Fun postcript: A State Department spokesperson told CNN that Tancredo's comments were “reprehensible” and “absolutely crazy.”

Take a look at this memo that top Obama foreign policy adviser Samantha Power has just sent out about the Pakistan and no-nuke controversies to "interested parties" (read: reporters and pundits).

In it, she seeks to turn the current controversies over his foreign policy remarks into a larger story -- that the remarks prove he represents a clean break with the assumptions now driving the D.C. foreign policy establishment.

If you read it, you can see that one of the key challenges the Obama campaign faces in making this argument is to get people to see his initial opposition to the war as of a piece with a broader set of differences Obama may have with that establishment -- and to link that initial war opposition to the current Obama positions in a coherent way.

In a sense, Obama is using the controversy to now run against that establishment, using it as a foil, and turning his campaign into an indictment of it and of what he's arguing is a failed foreign policy status quo.

"Barack Obama defied conventional wisdom and opposed invading Iraq," the memo says. "Barack Obama was right; the conventional wisdom was wrong."

And:

"Over the last few weeks, Barack Obama has once again taken positions that challenge Washington’s conventional wisdom on foreign policy. And once again, pundits and politicians have leveled charges that are now bankrupt of credibility and devoid of the new ideas that the American people desperately want...Barack Obama’s judgment is right. It is conventional wisdom that has to change."

Full memo after the jump.

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More big gains for House Dems in 2008? That's what a comprehensive new poll by a Dem firm finds.

A new poll just out from Democracy Corps — the Democratic polling/consulting firm run by James Carville and Stan Greenberg — finds that Dems are poised to pick up a new batch of House seats next year, even as the number of vulnerable Dem seats dwindles.

The poll — which was conducted in 70 competitive districts, half held by the Democrats and half by the GOP — finds that the most vulnerable Democrats, who come largely from the ranks of freshmen who picked up Republican seats last year, are not in any great danger. "Democrats are ahead in their most vulnerable seats by 10 points, 51 to 41 percent, leaving the Republicans with few pickup opportunities," the pollsters say.

Meanwhile, Democrats lead in the most competitive tier of Republican-held seats, as well as in the second-tier trouping of vulnerable GOPers — meaning there could be vulnerable Republican seats even outside of the 35 tested. "This pattern that allowed the Democrats to take 30 seats in the last mid-term election could well take Democrats up to 20 in the Presidential, unless confounded by intervening events," the firm writes. "There really could be another wave election."

A 20-seat gain by Dems would bring their total to 253.

Hillary to Bush: Whose side are you on, Robert Gates' or Dick Cheney's?

As expected, Hillary Clinton has now taken her running battle with Cheney and a Pentagon official over Iraq contingency withdrawal planning all the way to the top, blasting President Bush and the Veep in a long letter to the President himself.

We've got an advance copy of the letter.

In it, Clinton was responding to Cheney's support for Under Secretary of Defense Eric Edelman's recent claim that her request for info about Pentagon withdrawal planning aided "enemy propaganda." Cheney agreed with Edelman in a recent interview, putting him directly at odds with Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who recently said he didn't share that aspect of Edelman's view.

Clinton sought to play up the division between Cheney and Gates in the letter, demanding that the President clarify whom he agreed with. She slammed Cheney for "impugning the patriotism of millions of Americans" and harshly criticized Bush, saying that his awful Iraq record had "earned" Congressional oversight.

"While it is not an uncommon occurrence for Vice President Cheney to offer support for, or participate in, politically motivated attacks against those who have a difference of opinion, it was surprising to see so outrageous a charge –- one which has been disavowed by the Secretary of Defense –- given credence by the vice president," Clinton wrote.

"I am writing to request a clarification on the position of your administration on the importance of Congress in overseeing our nation’s Iraq policy. Congress must hold your administration to the scrutiny which the Constitution demands and, frankly, your record in Iraq has earned."

By drawing attention to the feud, the letter furthers her policy goal of forcing the Pentagon to reveal info about withdrawal planning. But it also helps her politically, since a high-profile standoff with the White House and the Pentagon over Iraq would likely appeal to Dem primary voters and helps deflect rival Barack Obama's charge that her foreign policy positions are akin to "Bush Cheney lite."

Full letter after the jump.

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Here's an interesting backstage development in Congress' Iraq debate.

In another sign that House liberals are refusing to allow House GOPers to vote on toothless Iraq measures that would merely give them political cover, House liberals are pressuring the Dem leadership this week to kill another Iraq amendment that they view as far too weak because it wouldn't force withdrawal.

The latest target of the libs is an amendment sponsored by Dem Reps. Neil Abercrombie and John Tanner that would require the President to reveal the "status" of any withdrawal planning but contains no withdrawal timetable. Liberals earlier this week killed another measure by Rep. John Murtha because it lacked a "date certain" for withdrawal.

According to Hill sources, the Dem leadership called a private meeting yesterday, bringing together the bill's proponents and its liberal opponents, mostly members of the House progressive caucus. More after the jump.

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One of the stranger sublots of Campaign 2008 is the extent to which the big news orgs are desperate to see signs that the GOP candidates are "distancing" themselves from Bush on Iraq, when they plainly aren't doing this at all.

Case in point: Bloomberg News, which ran a story today making this claim. Incredibly, in an effort to bolster the argument that Rudy was doing this, Bloomberg actually cherry-picked quotes from an interview in which Rudy himself said he wasn't doing this at all. That latter quote, needless to say, didn't appear in the piece.

Congressional Dems are kicking off a big effort to turn around their plummeting approval rating in polls.

The three Democratic committees have teamed up to launch a new TV ad -- to air on national cable channels during Congressional recess -- touting the achievements of the new Congress and its efforts to take on George Bush to "end a war gone wrong":

The ad is part of a "Month of Action on Iraq" that will unfold as members of Congress head back to their districts and will include ads "targeting Republicans in their home states and districts, for their support of the failed President's Iraq policy," a statement reads. Text of the ad in the jump.

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Hawkish Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution -- a quintessential serious centrist Beltway foreign policy analyst who's been much maligned of late for saying the surge is working -- has now weighed in on the Obama-Hillary no-nukes flap.

His somewhat counterintuitive verdict? Obama was right:

Michael O'Hanlon, a Brookings Institution scholar, said Obama "clearly gave the right answer."

"He's certainly right to say you would never use a nuclear weapon to get Osama bin Laden," he said. He said that if intelligence officials were able to locate bin Laden with the precision required for a nuclear attack, they would also be able to catch or kill him by more conventional means that would not signal to the world that using nuclear force is acceptable.

One would have expected that such a quintessential member of the D.C. foreign policy establishment would immediately denounce Obama's line as a "gaffe." But he didn't. Go figure.

Dodd Takes On O'Reilly

Chris Dodd appeared on Bill O'Reilly's show yesterday, and got into an amusing argument with the manic right winger over Daily Kos. "What I'm stunned at, Mr. O'Reilly is the fact that you spend as much time here going after an online community gathering, where there are 500,000 people who visit that site on a daily basis here, to identify five, six, seven, eight objectionable, offensive cartoons or comments that people are making," Dodd said right off the bat. "I find that rather stunning, to be quite honest with you here." It got even crazier from there, with Dodd calling out O'Reilly for his past remarks in favor of Al Qaeda bombing San Francisco, and O'Reilly denying he ever said it and screaming at Dodd about Media Matters.

Pakistan Hits Back At Obama

Officials in Pakistan have blasted Barack Obama for promising to approve unsanctioned missions in their territory. "It's a very irresponsible statement, that's all I can say," Pakistan's Foreign Minister Khusheed Kasuri said. "As the election campaign in America is heating up we would not like American candidates to fight their elections and contest elections at our expense." An official also blasted Tom Tancredo for suggesting nuking Mecca in retaliation for a terrorist attack.

Poll: Iowa Dem Contest A Three-Way Tie

A new Washington Post/ABC News poll shows the Iowa caucus to be a three-way tie on the Democratic side: Obama 27%, Clinton 26%, Edwards 26%, followed by Bill Richardson at 11%. While 36% of respondents say Hillary Clinton is the strongest leader, and 50% say she has the best experience to be president, Obama leads in other categories: 30% say he is the most honest and trustworthy, 26% say he is the closest to them on the issues. Obama and Edwards are tied at 33% each for "most likeable," with Hillary a distant third at 14%.

McCain Supporting New, Enforcement-Only Immigration Bill

After his serious defeat passing an immigration bill in the Senate, John McCain is now supporting a new bill that does not contain a guest-worker program or other provisions that critics derided as amnesty. Instead, this bill is focused entirely on enforcement and border security — just the sort of issues that the GOP base has valued. "The failure of the Senate to pass comprehensive immigration was a huge disappointment," McCain said in a statement. "Although we must move forward with other issues, we can show the American people that we are serious about securing our nation's border."

Thompson Not Pulling Too Many Donors From Other Candidates

An analysis of Fred Thompson's tax fillings show that the vast majority of his donors are contributing for the first time this cycle and therefore his late entry – or rather, non-entry – to the race hasn't pulled donors away from the declared candidates as some had feared, the New York Times reports. Thompson raised at least $134,000 from people who had given to Mitt Romney; at least $88,000 from people who gave to John McCain, and at least $74,000 from Rudy Giuliani's donors.

Gingrich: War On Terror Is "Phony"

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich chastised recent Republican stewardship of the country, saying that the Bush Administration is waging a "phony war" on terrorism while the most effective strategy would be reducing dependence on foreign oil. "None of you should believe we are winning this war," Gingrich said to a gathering of conservative college students. "We were in charge for six years," he said, referring to the recent period when the GOP controlled the White House and both houses of Congress. "I don't think you can look and say that was a great success."

Hagel: What's My Party Again?

Chuck Hagel (R-NE) and a group of other senators including Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Arlen Spector (R-PA) held a book release party for their colleague Joe Biden, whose book Promises to Keep just hit the shelves. Hagel, who was Biden's pick when he responded to a question at the last debate about which Republican could be his running mate, addressed the largely Democratic crowd and perhaps fell victim to osmosis. "Hell, I don't know what party I belong to any more," Hagel joked.

Huckabee Releases YouTube In Support Of YouTube Debate

Mike Huckabee's campaign posted a video of the candidate standing in front of what appears to be a soy bean field, encouraging his rivals to join the YouTube debate. "Personally, I'm in ... Yeah, it may be a little different, but you know what? This campaign oughtta be different. It oughtta be different than the same old tired worn out talking about things that consultants have written, and talking about things that the American people want to talk about," Huckabee says.

In Minnesota, Franken And Ciresi Suspend Campaigns — But RNC Continues On

Al Franken and Mike Ciresi, who are running against each other for the Democratic nomination for Senate, have both suspended their campaign activities in light of yesterday's tragic bridge collapse. This includes the cancellation of a scheduled appearance by Franken on the David Letterman show. On the other hand, the New York Times reports that the Republican National Committee is continuing with their summer meeting in Minneapolis, which had already begun yesterday and continues through Saturday, with appearances by Ann Romney, Rudy Giuliani's campaign manager Michael DuHaime, First Lady Laura Bush, Governor Tim Pawlenty and others.

TNR Confirms The Writings Of "Scott Thomas"

The New Republic has put out an official statement on Scott Thomas Beauchamp, the Soldier in Iraq who has written of various tales of horror going on in the country. Beauchamp's stories prompted days and days of attacks on TNR from a whole battery of winger blogs, who made all sorts of wild claims about his alleged fraudulence, mendacity and worse.

But as it turns out, TNR's thorough fact-checking of his pieces has found only a single error: Beauchamp misremembered a conversation he had at a base in Kuwait, writing that it had occurred inside of Iraq. Other than that, everything he wrote about — from troops finding mass graves and playing sick games with the bones, to cruelty to injured Iraqis and even dogs — all checked out. We're sure the mea culpas will be coming on the winger blogs any day now.

Clintons, Giuliani, Howard Dean, All Set To Descend On Hamptons This Weekend

In what has become an annual ritual of sorts, a whole bunch of high-profile candidates are all heading out to the Hamptons this weekend to raise money from wealthy east-enders. The coming swarm of pols — including the Clintons, Rudy, and Howard Dean — has the locals simultaneously looking forward to their arrival, and dreading it, too. The absolute best line about this goes to Democratic strategist and top fundraiser Robert Zimmerman, who drolly noted: "Forget the traffic. The political egos alone will clog the area."

Kos: Hillary Respects Us

Courtesy of Ben Smith at the YearlyKos convention, Markos "Kos" Moulitsas spoke well of the Democratic presidential candidates — and noted how the liberal blogosphere has earned a newfound respect from the party establishment. "Hillary's response these last couple weeks defending Daily Kos and Yearly Kos and the Netroots from Fox News partisans is a sign of growing respect," Kos said. "A year ago there wasn't that respect within her inner circle."

Romney: Cut Off Funds To Cities That Harbor Illegal Immigrants

Mitt Romney told an Iowa crowd that so-called "sanctuary cities" — where the local authorities don't turn illegal immigrants over to the federal government — should pay a penalty via their federal subsidies. The Des Moines Register is interpreting the pronouncement as thinly-veiled shot at Rudy Giuliani, whose New York City administration did not actively police immigration and only turned over violent offenders to the federal government. "We send hundreds of millions of dollars to these cities, even billions of dollars, from the federal government," Romney said. "We ought to stop doing that."

Hillary And Obama Both Get High-Profile Gay Endorsements In One Day

Hillary Clinton's campaign announced today the endorsement of Wisconsin Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin, who in 1998 became the first and so far only openly gay person to be elected to Congress as a non-incumbent. Meanwhile, New Hampshire's openly gay Episcopalian bishop, Gene Robinson, has announced his support for Barack Obama.

Don Young Has Cordial Meeting With Lobbyist Who Is Also His Dem Opponent

Congressional Quarterly reports that scandal-plagued Rep. Don Young (R-AK) today met with Jake Metcalfe, an Alaska lobbyist for the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers. Metcalfe wanted to thank Young for crossing party lines to support legislation making it easier to form a union. And the meeting went well — even though Metcalfe has filed to be Young's opponent. "It was a bit of a bold move, but being visited by an Alaskan was appreciated, as always," said a spokeswoman for Young.

Club For Growth Releases TV Attack Ad Against Huckabee

The Club For Growth is targeting Mike Huckabee in the run-up to the Ames straw poll next weekend, clearly hoping to blunt any appeal he might have with state's religious right GOP base. This TV ad, with a buy costing a total of $85,000, attacks Huckabee for raising various taxes when he was governor of Arkansas, tax hikes that Huckabee has said were necessary to improve the state's ragged infrastructure.

The battle going on between Mike Huckabee and Sam Brownback for the religious right base has officially taken a turn into the absurd.

David Brody reports that Mike Huckabee's campaign has sent a letter refusing to apologize for anti-Catholic remarks made by one of his supporters against the Catholic convert from Kansas — after all, the Huckabee camp says, they were not in any way responsible for the remarks.

Here's the fun part. The Huckabee campaign letter went further by accusing Brownback and his own supporters of all sorts of character flaws, based on a Website called Baptists for Brownback, which declares that Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and even Fred Thompson are headed for Hell.

One problem, however: Turns out that "Baptists for Brownback" is actually an anti-Brownback parody site!

More after the jump.

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Chris Dodd also comes out against Obama, releasing a statement this afternoon not long after Obama said he'd rule out the use of nukes against terrorists in Afghanistan and Pakistan:

"Over the past several days, Senator Obama's assertions about foreign and military affairs have been, frankly, confusing and confused. He has made threats he should not make and made unwise categorical statements about military options.

"We are facing a dangerous and complicated world. The next President will require a level of understanding and judgment unprecedented in American history to address these challenges."

I have to say that it's not fully clear to me what Dodd is saying with respect to Obama's remarks today. Obama said he'd rule out using nukes against terrorists in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Hillary said you shouldn't rule that out. Dodd, however, is merely saying you shouldn't make "categorical statements about military options." This appears to suggest he agrees with Hillary that Obama shouldn't have ruled out nukes -- without quite saying it.

The ongoing Hillary-Obama skirmish has flared up into a major firefight this afternoon, with Clinton chiding Obama at a press conference for ruling out the use of nukes against terrorists in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Earlier today Obama was asked by the Associated Press whether he'd consider using nukes against terrorists in Afghanistan or Pakistan. His answer was No:

"I think it would be a profound mistake for us to use nuclear weapons in any circumstance," Obama said, with a pause, "involving civilians." Then he quickly added, "Let me scratch that. There's been no discussion of nuclear weapons. That's not on the table."

Hillary has now responded by chiding Obama for ruling out the use of nukes. Here's what she said today at a press conference, according to a transcript provided by the Senator's office:

"I think that presidents should be very careful at all times in discussing the use or non-use of nuclear weapons. Presidents, since the Cold War, have used nuclear deterrence to keep the peace. And I don't believe that any president should make any blanket statements with respect to the use or non-use of nuclear weapons."

The exchange reminds us again that the ongoing Hillary-Obama standoff has become a high-stakes, point-of-no-return political duel for both sides.

In a nutshell, Hillary is seeking to paint Obama as too green to be "commander in chief" without alienating rank-and-file Dems who might be put off by the suggestions of her hawkishness that such criticism produces. Obama, meanwhile, is trying to argue that he represents a clean break with the assumptions that have long undergirded Washington consensus foreign policy opinion in such a way that doesn't leave him vulnerable to the inevitable charge that he's showing "weakness."

More soon.

"Embattled Rep. Rick Renzi (R-Ariz.) tapped down speculation Thursday that he is telling his allies that he will not seek re-election — but he appears to be leaning toward the exit door rather than seeking a fourth term."

So reports Roll Call. Nor does the Muck-encrusted Renzi appear to be doing much to deny that he's on his way out, either. He gave this choice quote to the paper: “To be honest, I was never going to be here a great while. I’m a businessman at heart.” The paper adds that a "senior leadership source" expects Renzi to retire.

Three Dems are competing for the chance to unseat Renzi, probably because of his Muck-prince status. TPMmuckraker's full coverage of Renzi is here.

A new Pew poll finds that Hillary has sharply expanded her national lead over Barack Obama among registered Democrats and independents who lean Dem -- and now leads him nearly two to one:

Clinton 40% Obama 21% Gore 12% Edwards 11%

Hillary's 19 point lead over Obama is nearly double the 10 point lead she had in the April Pew poll, which found her leading Obama 34%-24%. Pew says that support for Hillary has gone up most "among independent Democrats, liberals and moderates, college graduates, middle-aged and older voters."

Meanwhile, on the GOP side, Rudy leads the pack with 27%, but his lead appears to have slipped as Thompson gained:

Since April, Giuliani support has declined (32% to 27%) as has McCain's (23% to 16%) while Thompson has gained significantly (10% to 18%.). Thompson has caught up to Giuliani among independents who lean Republican, as Giuliani's support has fallen by half.

Courtesy of some rather boneheaded behavior on the part of the Associated Press -- and some lack of clarity from Obama -- there's been a bit of a dust-up today over whether Barack Obama is ruling out the use of nukes in all circumstances.

The latest version of the Associated Press story on this reports that Obama ruled out nukes to fight terrorists in Afghanistan and Pakistan:

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama said Thursday he would not use nuclear weapons "in any circumstance" to fight terrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

"I think it would be a profound mistake for us to use nuclear weapons in any circumstance," Obama said, with a pause, "involving civilians." Then he quickly added, "Let me scratch that. There's been no discussion of nuclear weapons. That's not on the table."

Obama was responding to a question by the Associated Press about whether there was any circumstance where he would be prepared or willing to use nuclear weapons to defeat terrorism and al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden.

Oddly, though, even though this is what the AP had asked Obama, the wire's earlier version of this story said this:

The Dem-controlled House of Representatives has just voted in favor of letting troops home from Iraq get more rest, passing a version of Senator Jim Webb's troop rest bill by a comfortable margin, 229-194.

Alas, the measure giving troops more time off won't become law anytime soon, however -- thanks to the GOP Senate leadership. As you may recall, the GOP managed to successfully block the measure from coming to a vote in early July. That's because giving more rest to the troops would have slowed down President Bush's Iraq War.

You can look at this as confirmation of an old adage attributed (apocryphally, perhaps) to George Washington: That the Senate is the saucer to the House's cup -- that is, the Senate is the place where the passions of the electorate, which find expression in the House, are poured and cooled off.

Or you can look at it as confirmation of what Reid said when the Senate vote was filibustered: "Some of my Republican colleagues would rather protect the president than protect the troops."

What exactly is Rudy Giuliani's position on whether Bill Clinton was to blame for 9/11?

Back in June, Rudy appeared to insinuate that Clinton was to blame. He suggested that 9/11 was the culmination of Clinton's approach to terrorism, which he described as: "Don’t react, let things go, kind of act the way Clinton did in the ’90s."

But just last night on Charlie Rose, Rudy appeared to soften his criticism:

Rudy told Charlie Rose, "I'm not faulting Clinton for this," adding: "He didn't know the future anymore than I knew the future."

Before, Rudy said that Clinton had failed to "react" and "let things go" when confronted with a visible threat, resulting in 9/11 -- something Rudy clearly intended as an attack. Now, he's saying that Clinton wasn't at fault -- and even suggesting that he would have handled things similiarly.

True, Rudy is still hanging on to one piece of his criticism of Clinton -- that his anti-terror policies weren't aggressive enough, something which is at odds with key aspects of the public record. But Rudy's clearly softening the tone of his criticism, clearly backing off his earlier insinuation that Clinton should be blamed in any way. In a sense, he's come 360 degrees. He's returned to the original position he held back in September, before he was running in a GOP primary, which is that Clinton doesn't deserve any of the blame for 9/11.

Update: As commenter MarcNYC notes, Rudy's tone shifts dramatically depending on what forum he's in. When speaking to the Fox audience, he slams Bill for not reacting and letting things go. But when in the calm and rational precincts of Charlie Rose, he's suddenly Mr. Reasonable himself.

Which Democratic presidential candidates is viewed unfavorably by more Dem voters, Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama? If you answered Hillary ... you'd be wrong, at least according to the latest Rasmussen poll:

Clinton is now viewed favorably by 82% of Democrats, Obama by 66%. Those figures include 43% with a Very Favorable opinion of Clinton. Thirty-three percent (33%) have such a positive view of Obama. Just 16% of Democrats have an unfavorable view of Clinton while 30% hold such a view of Obama.

If so, it's interesting — and counterintuitive, given the criticism of Hillary's war vote, for instance — that Hillary doesn't seem to generate the same feeling of resentment among her opponents' backers as Obama does. Anyone have a better explanation for this?

With friends like these...

Vets For Freedom, the right's answer to VoteVets.org, is running a new TV ad in Minnesota explicitly thanking GOP Senator Norm Coleman for his continued support of the war, the Star-Tribune reports today.

The ad — which will run during the Sunday chat shows, though the total size of the buy is unknown — features pro-war Iraq veterans thanking Coleman for "supporting our mission in Iraq" and for "not tying the hands of our commanders." Here's the ad:

More after the jump.

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A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll finds that whatever advantage the GOP had on the question of which party was more trusted to handle terrorism has completely evaporated.

The poll finds that the two parties are exactly tied on this question, with 29% saying they trust Dems more, and 29% saying they trust the GOP.

Other surveys have reached similar findings. But in this particular survey, this is the first time that the GOP hasn't held a substantial lead on this question. The poll says the question has been asked all the way back to 2002.

Meanwhile, the poll finds Bush's approval rating mired at 31%.

Update: Marc Ambinder writes: "The press still writes about counterterrorism as if it is a trademark Republican wedge issue and seems collectively surprised when Democrats offer aggressive proposals that go against the grain." So, a question: Will this dynamic continue to hold if surveys start to show very clearly that Dems have taken the lead on the question?

John Edwards is condemning Rupert Murdoch's impending takeover of Wall Street Journal and challenging all the Dem Presidential rivals to return all campaign donations to Rupert Murdoch.

“News Corp’s purchase of the Dow Jones Co. and The Wall Street Journal should be the last straw when it comes to media consolidation," Edwards said in a statement just emailed out by his campaign. "I’m challenging every Democratic presidential candidate to refuse contributions from News Corp executives and return any they've already taken, beginning with Rupert Murdoch."

Murdoch has hosted a fundraiser for Hillary Clinton and contributed $2300 to her Presidential campaign this spring.

As reported below, Chris Dodd yesterday became the first Presidential candidate to condemn Murdoch's impending takeover of The Journal.

As I noted yesterday, it was a bit surprising that John Edwards had remained silent on the issue -- particularly since the Edwards campaign had been out front in attacking right wing media figures, particularly Murdoch's Fox News, as a way of appealing to Dem primary voters.

Today, Edwards has come out swinging, however -- proving once again the extent to which targeting winger media types has become de rigeur for Dem Presidential candidates. Edwards' full statement after the jump.

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This is a bit akin to beating a horse that passed away sometime in the Middle Ages, but one facet of today's New York Times coverage of the Iraq debate really strayed into Fox News and MSNBC territory.

In a big front page piece today about ongoing clashes between war supporters and critics, Times reporter Mark Mazzetti quoted the infamous Op-ed by Kenneth Pollack and Michael O'Hanlon, describing them only as "occasional critics of the Bush administration’s war strategy."

Memo to Mazzetti and Times editors: It's far more important for readers to know that these two have been among the most prominent and relentless boosters of both the initial invasion and the "surge" than it is for them to know that they are "occasional critics" of the war. Without that info, readers are utterly helpless -- they have no way of evaluating Pollack and O'Hanlon's motives or judgment, and have no way of knowing that there's nothing at all counterintuitive about their Op ed conclusions. Anyone serious about informing readers would have included it.

Look, you expect the cable nets to act like useful idiots in this manner. But for the august and mighty Paper of Record to play this game is just indefensible. Particularly since The Times published the Op ed in the first place -- allowing the authors to obscure their longtime war boosterism and to trumpet optimism about Iraq that was at odds with research O'Hanlon himself conducted for the Brookings Institution.

Come on, now. Let's get this stuff right. Inform your readers. This is important.

The Broke John McCain Carries His Own Luggage

John McCain has been flying commercial these days, traveling with only one or two aides and no national media in tow. He also relies on supporters to drive him to and from events, which no longer have steam-pressed American flags as backdrops or abundant pastries. "In the words of Chairman Mao, it's always darkest before it's totally black," McCain said. "I never have a new joke. But my old one is that we were at 3 percent and the poll had a 5 percent margin of error (in 1999)."

New York Times Botches Coverage Of Iraq Debate

Today's Times coverage of the public relations battle over the Iraq war strays into bad Fox News and MSNBC territory.

Rudy's Friendship With Top Fox Exec Could Prove Useful

The New York Times examines how Roger Ailes, head of the Fox News Channel, has a longtime friendship with candidate Rudy Giuliani. Ailes served as media director on Rudy's mayoral campaign, later called on him to secure a spot for Fox on cable in New York, and recently joined him as a guest of Rupert Murdoch at the White House Correspondents Dinner. Fox News denies this would influence coverage, and says Giuliani's frontrunner status is the real reason why he has spent more time on the network than the other candidates.

Obama Campaign To Hold "Faith Forums" In South Carolina

Barack Obama's campaign is planning this month to hold a series of meetings in South Carolina, dubbed "faith forums." Joshua Dubois, the campaign's director of religious outreach, will meet with members of the clergy as well as religious Obama supporters, and discuss Obama's beliefs and the campaign's thoughts on what role religion can play in politics.

Dems Offer New Wiretapping Proposal

Congressional Democrats have crafted a new compromise proposal in response from the Bush Administration's pressure to expand it's ability to conduct surveillance. The compromise would create a secret court to approve eavesdropping on communication between people overseas and those in the United States, requiring investigators prove the target, which doesn't need to be specified, is indeed"likely" overseas. A "significant" number of contacts would require probable cause.

NRSC Launching Fight Against Johnson

Sen John Ensign (R-NV), who chairs the GOP's senate election committee, said yesterday that he is no longer putting off a 2008 challenge to Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD), despite the fact Johnson still has not returned to the Senate after a brain hemorrhage. "It's time," Ensign said. "Obviously, we are all still concerned. But this is a United States Senate seat. He was a top target before his health problems and he's still a top target."

New Hampshire House Speaker Joins Hillary

Terie Norelli, the Speaker of the New Hampshire house, will join Hillary Clinton on the campaign trail as a co-chair, an endorsement that was widely anticipated. "I'll do everything I can to help get Sen. Clinton elected," Norelli said, citing Clinton's impressive experience and proven capabilities as the reason for her decision.

DNC To Make Comprehensive Study Of Voting Systems

The Democratic National Committee is expected to announce today a large-scale, county by county study of how voting is conducted throughout the country. The special committee will talk to election officials in the more than 3,000 counties in this country, and will compile information on the types of voting machines, how many are allotted per polling place, how absentee ballots and voter registration forms are handled, and other issues. "Our candidates need to know how elections work in every single precinct," said DNC chairman Howard Dean. "That is an enormous advantage when you’re going up against a party that is essentially a vote suppressor."

Here Comes Brownback "Girl"

Wichita-based satirist Bucky Walters has come up with his own answer to "Obama Girl" — this sketch modeled after Dana Carvey's old "Church Lady" character from Saturday Night Live:

House Progressives Sink Murtha's Withdrawal Proposal

Rep. Jack Murtha's latest proposal for withdrawal to begin in 60 days appears to be dead. It's unclear exactly why, but one reason is that House progressives opposed the measure because it didn't have a "date certain" for the completion of troop withdrawal. Progressives view any measure without a firm withdrawal timetable as a retreat. The Hill also notes that "there are indications that House leadership had a hand" in killing the bill — perhaps because Murtha apparently didn't consult with leadership before proposing it.

Romney Calls For "Surge Of Support" For Troops

Mitt Romney said he would donate $25,000 of his own money to seven organizations that benefit soldiers, including the USO Care Packages and Operation Thank You, encouraging others to do the same. "I would like to show a surge of public support that can communicate to our troops over there that we care, we appreciate what you are doing, we want you to come home as soon as you can safe and sound," Romney said. His comments were greeted with great applause.

Novak: Hillary Won The Foreign Leaders Fight

Bob Novak writes on what his Democratic sources have said about the Hillary/Obama flap on meeting with foreign leaders: "The consensus among Democrats is that Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) was the clear winner in the dispute with Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) over meeting with foreign despots as President. It went to his greatest political weakness: his presumed inexperience compared with Clinton. Former President Bill Clinton's intervention in the dispute keeps it in the news and ends it while she's way ahead."

Lieberman, Klobuchar and Alexander Propose New Primary System

Senators Joe Lieberman (ID-CT), Amy Klobuchar (DFL-MN) and Lamar Alexander (R-TN) are joining together to propose federal legislation mandating a new presidential primary system. "Primaries were not intended to be an arms race," said Klobuchar, referring to how so many states have rushed to hold their contests on February 5. Under this proposed system — which would face an uphill battle, to say the least — the traditional Iowa and New Hampshire kickoffs would be followed by four regional contests (the South, Northeast, Midwest and West) being held once a month and in a random order.

Huckabee Won't Apologize For Brownback/Catholic Flap

Mike Huckabee struck a conciliatory tone in response to an outraged Sam Brownback but stopped short of apologizing for a supporter who sent out an e-mail criticizing Brownback's conversion to Catholicism and calling Huckabee "one of us." Huckabee said the comments were not authorized in any way by the campaign. "As believers, we don't have time to fight each other," he said.

Romney On A Tear Against Bush Achievements In New Hampshire

Stumping in New Hampshire today, Mitt Romney criticized the Department of Homeland Security and the reconstruction of the Gulf Coast. He called the government's efforts to rebuild after Katrina "a disappointing process" despite "one heck of a lot of money". The Department of Homeland Security was "one big bureaucracy" that is too focused on equipment "that's going to be used after the bomb goes off," something he hopes to prevent. "There is such duplication in Washington that you'd really like to take the place apart and put it back together, just smaller and simpler and smarter," Romney said. Good luck, Governor.

Richardson Launches Television Ad To Plug Website

Warning: this ad may cause dizziness. "On clean energy, a 30 second TV ad isn't enough time," Bill Richardson says in a new 30-second spot. Perhaps that's why he needs to dance around the screen:

Romney Releases Video Of Scripted Talk With His Family

Via The New Republic, Mitt Romney's campaign has produced a video, depicting him with his family in a discussion over whether or not to run. Bottom line: Candidates will often have these discussions in private with their loved ones, but give us a break. This video is obviously so scripted, staged and artificial, that it just reeks of phoniness. If someone actually believes this is is a real meeting of the Romney family, they probably think Fred Thompson has important experience as the Manhattan District Attorney, too.

The Dem Presidential candidates are beginning to weigh in on Barack Obama's foreign policy speech today -- and suffice it to say that they're not happy about it.

Dodd rapped Obama for saying he'd hunt terrorists in Pakistan without permission:

"Frankly, I am not sure what Barack is calling for in his speech this morning. But it is dangerous and irresponsible to leave even the impression the United States would needlessly and publicly provoke a nuclear power."

More response after the jump.

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According to Robert Novak, Republicans are very, very, very worried that they're going to sustain yet more Senate losses in 2008.

"Republican melancholy grows with prospect of major losses in the Senate," Novak reports in his latest column. "Sen. John Sununu (R-N.H.) is severely endangered. The expectation in Virginia now is that Sen. John Warner (R) will not seek another term, opening the door for a Senate run by former Gov. Mark Warner (D)."

Adding to GOP woes, Novak continues: "former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) and her husband are telling supporters that there is about a 70 percent chance that she will run" against Sununu.

As our Election Central Poll Tracker shows, Shaheen already leads Sununu by a huge margin in different opinion polls. A decision is expected from Shaheen this fall.

Top Hillary pollster Mark Penn appears to criticize the campaign's handling of a high-profile skirmish with Barack Obama in an interview that was published in today's New York Observer.

Penn had been asked what he thought of the Hillary campaign's very aggressive response a few months back to comments made by David Geffen, a Hollywood exec and top Obama fundraiser who was scorchingly critical of both Bill and Hillary in an interview with The Times at the time.

From The Observer:

Asked about the aggressive public response of Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson to comments from Obama supporter David Geffen, Mr. Penn said, “I don’t think that played out very well.”

“It’s very important in politics not to make the same mistake too many times,” he said. “If we had that one to do over again we would probably approach it differently.”

By way of context, this sort of public questioning of tactics almost never happens in Hillaryland.

Update: Edited slightly from original; Penn's quotes could mean he was merely critiquing the whole campaign's handling of the issue.

This fight isn't going away -- and nor does Hillary want it to.

Escalating her battle with the White House over the Pentagon's contingency Iraq withdrawal planning, Hillary Clinton has written a sharply worded letter directly to Vice President Dick Cheney, demanding that the administration clarify its position as to whether her ongoing request for info about such planning is aiding enemy propaganda.

In the letter, an advance copy of which was obtained by Election Central, Clinton was responding to Cheney's assertion yesterday on CNN that he agreed with Under Secretary of Defense Eric Edelman, who recently opined that Clinton's request for such info aided "enemy propaganda."

Clinton blasted Cheney in the letter for "innacuracies" in his account and pointed out that Cheney's comments had put him directly at odds with Defense Secretary Robert Gates. The SecDef recently assured Clinton that he didn't agree with that aspect of Edelman's assessment.

"Your comments, agreeing with Under Secretary Edelman, not Secretary Gates, have left me wondering about the true position of the Administration," Clinton wrote. "Therefore, I am writing to President Bush asking that he set the record straight about the Administration's position regarding the role of Congress in oversight of the war."

The letter -- and Clinton's ongoing feud with the White House over contingency planning info -- is politically useful to the Senator, because it gives her ammo to shoot down rival Barack Obama's recent assertions that Clinton's approach to foreign policy is akin to "Bush-Cheney lite."

Clinton's full letter after the jump.

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Senator Gordon Smith (R-OR) — a conservative who has broken with the White House on Iraq since this past November — officially has a Democratic opponent. State House Speaker Jeff Merkley declared his candidacy today, which had been expected since last week.

In his announcement statement, Merkley talks about his working class background and positions on education and health care — but also makes it clear that he does not intend to cede any advantage to Smith on the Iraq issue despite Smith's breaking with the White House over the war.

"Sadly, Gordon Smith is unwilling or unable to take a firm stance against the Bush Administration's tragic mistakes," Merkley says. "Unlike Gordon Smith, I have opposed the war in Iraq from the beginning, and as Oregon's United States Senator, I will work every day to bring our sons and daughters home."

Merkley's campaign Web site is here.

Finally -- one of the Democratic Presidential candidates has come out and condemned Rupert Murdoch's impending takeover of The Wall Street Journal. Here's a statement just released by Chris Dodd:

"I am deeply troubled by the incredible amount of consolidation occurring across the American media landscape. The power of the media is swiftly being limited to a few controlling hands, which poses a serious threat to our democracy. The foundation of our democracy rests in our ability to hear from a diverse array of sources so that we can make informed decisions. The Wall Street Journal has provided a valuable and important news choice to the American public for years.

"With News Corp's purchase of the newspaper, I am concerned that it will be very difficult for the Journal to offer fair and balanced reporting under the pressures of a giant-media conglomerate."

Given the extent to which the Dem candidates have been pushing back on right-wing media figures to appeal to the netroots and Dem primary voters, I'd expected more candidates to condemn the impending takeover. But until now, there's been nothing -- even John Edwards, who early on took the lead in pulling out of the debates sponsored by Murdoch's Fox News, hasn't weighed in on this.

The firefighters working to derail Giuliani's presidential ambitions have gained a powerful new ally: Michael Moore.

Moore has now released a new video directly taking on Rudy on behalf of the firefighters, pointing to their complaints of faulty radios, the placement of a command center in the World Trade Center after the 1993 bombing, and inadequate health care for 9/11 related illnesses.

"Hello, Mr. Giuliani, it's Michael Moore. Remember me?" the filmmaker begins in the video. Visibly angry, he concludes with a direct plea to Giuliani to meet with the firefighters and address their complaints: "Those 9/11 heroes, a lot of them are suffering right now, a lot of them need medical care and you have refused to help them, in fact you have refused to even talk to them."

The vid is significant because Moore's notoriety could succeed in drawing more attention to the firefighters, who have been trying to take on Rudy mainly through free media. If Moore keeps this up, he could get them lots more of it.

Obama is now wrapping up his full terrorism speech, and I've posted the full text of it as prepared for delivery after the jump. Take a look.

One context worth keeping in mind: This speech is obviously at least partly about continuing the argument with Hillary over how America should conduct diplomacy with hostile nations. Projecting realism about the "war on terror" and proposing more aggressive action in certain theaters of it, as Obama does here, both seem designed to shore up whatever weaknesses Camp Obama thinks may or may not have been created by the Hillary dustup.

One key goal of the speech: To persuade people that toughness in the "war on terror" is not necessarily at odds with his earlier assertion that he'd negotiatiate with hostile nations without preconditions -- or, for that matter, at odds with opposing torture and other aspects of Bush-Cheney's terror approach. This argument is becoming more and more central to the Obama campaign -- the true significance of this speech.

In other words, Obama's basically upping the stakes in a big way here by drawing a stronger and deeper contrast between his and Hillary's foreign policy visions -- and by amplifying the argument that toughness is not synonymous with Bush-Cheney counterterror policies.

Full text after the jump.

Update: Ben Smith points out that Obama's speech is conspicuously missing "the buzzwords of those who see a global conflict between the West and a specifically Muslim insurgency." I think this reinforces my point about the extent to which Obama's trying to shift the debate here.

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The firefighters working to derail Giuliani's presidential ambitions have gained a powerful ally with a nose for publicity: Michael Moore.

The filmmaker released a brief video yesterday on the Huffington Post in which he directly referenced firefighter complaints of faulty radios, the placement of a command center in the World Trade Center after the 1993 bombing, and inadequate health care for 9/11 related illnesses. Details after the jump.

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Stephen Sixta – the man who asked the YouTube debate question that prompted a week-long smashup between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama over their differing approaches to diplomacy – now says that he is "sickened" by the controversy he helped create.

And as for who he thinks is right, he wholeheartedly agrees with Obama.

"I realized that [Clinton] was going to use the presidency in a more traditional way and that Obama would be more dynamic about it," Sixta said in an interview with Election Central. "And that was the key to the question – 'are you open?'. That's the basic difference. It was a yes or no question. He said 'yes.' She said 'no.'"

Sixta's full take on the controversy after the jump.

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Here are some advance excerpts of the big terrorism speech Barack Obama is giving today. The speech is starting at around 11 AM.

It contains his frequent criticism of the war votes of Hillary Clinton and John Edwards -- "a war in Iraq that should never have been authorized." It also simultaneously criticizes Bush's misrepresentation of the "enemy" and nods to the reality of terrorism:

"Just because the President misrepresents our enemies does not mean we do not have them. The terrorists are at war with us. The threat is from violent extremists who are a small minority of the world's 1.3 billion Muslims, but the threat is real."

He also promises a bunch of specific counter-terrorism measures, including deploying additional brigades to Afghanistan and making U.S. military aid to Pakistan conditional on its success cracking down on terrorism.

Check out excerpts of the speech after the jump.

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Speech Today: Obama Would Send Troops To Pakistan
In a major foreign policy speech set for today Barack Obama will pledge to strike in Pakistan against the will of the U.S.-backed regime there, seen as an attempt to sound strong on security after a rebuke from Hillary Clinton that his response to a foreign policy question at the latest debate was naive. "There are terrorists holed up in those mountains who murdered 3,000 Americans," Obama will say according to prepared remarks. "They are plotting to strike again. It was a terrible mistake to fail to act when we had a chance to take out an al-Qaida leadership meeting in 2005. If we have actionable intelligence about high-value terrorist targets and President Musharraf won't act, we will."

Poll: Hillary Continues With National Lead
A new NBC/Wall St. Journal poll finds Hillary Clinton maintaining a strong lead in national Democratic polling: Clinton 43%, Obama 22%, Edwards 13%. In general election pairings, Hillary beats Rudy Giuliani 47%-41%, while Obama beats Rudy 45%-40%. In a three-way race of Hillary Clinton, Rudy Giuliani and Mike Bloomberg, Hillary takes 42%, Rudy 34%, and Bloomberg 11% — meaning that Bloomberg's presence would take slightly votes more from Rudy Giuliani than it would from Hillary Clinton.

Thompson's Committee Accepting General Election Funds
Fred Thompson is accepting contributions greater that the $2,300 limit – meaning he will have to win the primary in order to spend the money – despite the fact that he has not even declared his candidacy, Ryan Sager reports, also noting that Tennessee based supporters including Rep. Zach Wamp and Sens. Lamar Alexander and Bob Corker have not donated either. "The Friends of Fred Thompson is focused on thanking those who did contribute to this phase and will continue adding more contributions from donors as we move forward."

Candidates Asked To Sign Pledge Against Torture, Wiretapping
About 130,000 people have signed a petition asking presidential candidates to sign a pledge that they will not allow warrant-less wiretapping, detention without trial, or torture in their administrations. The American Freedom Campaign is backed by Human Rights Watch, author Naomi Wolf and MoveOn.org, who hope to attract Republican candidates as well — although many have officially endorsed the use of "enhanced interrogation techniques." "It is going on both sides of the aisle," Moveon.org co-founder Wes Boyd said.

Pelosi To Fundraise With New Hampshire Freshman Dems
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is traveling to New Hampshire next week to attend fundraisers for fellow Democrats Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter, who both defeated incumbent Republicans last year. She will attend a joint press conference with Shea-Porter and then a $250-per-plate fundraiser to benefit the Congresswoman, who won a very surprising upset victory last year and will be a top GOP target this cycle. Specifics plans with Hodes were not yet announced.

Nebraska Businessman Files To Run In GOP Primary Against Hagel
Nebraska-based investment advisor Pat Flynn has announced his candidacy for the Republican nomination for Senator from Nebraska, saying he wants to bring a more conservative position to the Senate. State Attorney General Jon Bruning has also announced his primary bid against Senator Chuck Hagel, a conservative who has broken with the White House over Iraq. Former Congressman Hal Daub is also considering the race. Hagel has not yet announced whether he will run for a third term — though if he does run, a crowded anti-Hagel field might just work to his benefit.

GOP Recruiting State Senator To Take On Dennis Moore
Roll Call reports that Republicans have high hopes for Kansas state Senator Nick Jordan, who is being recruited to take on Democratic Congressman Dennis Moore. Republicans have failed to knock off Moore since his narrow first election in 1998, due in part to the split between moderate and right-wing Kansas Republicans. However, they feel Jordan is the man who can unite the various factions. "Both moderates and conservatives are pushing [Jordan] to run," said a Kansas Republican operative. "This is the guy we've been waiting for." Jordan has not yet officially declared his candidacy, but said he is "planning" to run.

Tancredo's Terrorism Deterrent: Promise Of Attacks On Muslim Holy Sites
As Josh pointed out last night, Tom Tancredo said he believes the best was to deter terrorist attacks on the United States is to promise retaliation via attacks on Muslim holy sites, perhaps a bizarre and logically questionable homage to the successful Cold War strategy of mutually-assured destruction. "If it is up to me, we are going to explain that an attack on this homeland of that nature would be followed by an attack on the holy sites in Mecca and Medina," Tancredo said. "That is the only thing I can think of that might deter somebody from doing what they would otherwise do. If I am wrong fine, tell me, and I would be happy to do something else. But you had better find a deterrent or you will find an attack." Tancredo did not address the fact that his threat could itself provoke an all-out religious war, a stated goal of many extremists, if it were ever made into actual American policy.

Giuliani Blasts Reporter For Even Asking About Vanity Fair Piece On Judith
Rudy Giuliani didn't hide his disgust when he was asked today about Vanity Fair's unflattering article about his wife, Judith. "One of the terrible prices that unfortunately families pay in a situation like this is that they get castigated and attacked," Rudy said, before lashing out at the reporter who inquired about his opinion. "And, usually, most reporters don't even ask about it. They actually have more dignity than to ask about it." Vanity Fair's article depicted Judith as an egomaniacal social climber.

Report: Edwards Appeals To The Base By Aggressively Taking On The Mainstream Media
Ben Smith has a good piece on a dynamic we've noted here before: The extent to which the Democratic Presidential candidates are waging counterattacks against the media, on behalf of themselves and others, as a way of appealing to Dem primary voters. Smith's piece focuses specifically on the Edwards campaign, which has taken the lead in pushing this strategy — a modern version of how Republicans freely took on the "liberal media" throughout the 1990's. Take a look.

Ann Romney Raises Ire Of Cancer Patients
Ann Romney has angered some cancer patients, including a prominent blogger, due to remarks made to People magazine. Discussing her feelings, she lamented the debilitating aspects of her multiple sclerosis, and her feelings upon her 1998 diagnosis: "It wasn't as though I was suicidal, but I was at the point where I thought, 'Couldn't I please just have cancer and die?'" Leroy Sievers, a prominent blogger on the subject over at NPR, has shot back: "Cancer does not bring a quick death. Cancer is painful and debilitating. Cancer wreaks havoc on the life of anyone who has it, and the lives of the people who care about them. Cancer twists the present and steals the future. Cancer hurts."

Big Unions Might Not Endorse — And Doubt Edwards Can Win
Major labor leaders say they are unlikely to endorse any of the Democratic candidates in the primary because they simply can't decide between all of them. This could be a blow to John Edwards, who has vigorously courted their endorsements with the hope of securing the coveted AFL-CIO nod — especially since the unions might be holding off for fear that he can't win. "There's a pretty strong sentiment across the labor movement for Edwards," Steve Rosenthal, a former political director of the AFL-CIO, said. "But I think some unions are a little leery of endorsing him without more evidence that he can win."

New Hampshire Senate Underdog Jay Buckey Picks Up Big Support — Joe Trippi
Joe Trippi, former Internet guru of the 2004 Howard Dean campaign and currently with John Edwards, has posted his endorsement of Jay Buckey, a Dartmouth medical professor and former astronaut, for the Democratic U.S. Senate nomination in New Hampshire. Trippi said Buckey's diverse background and life experiences would bring a new perspective to the Senate: "While I admire the other Democratic candidates, I wonder if Jay may be more adept at helping to solve our problems than those that have spent their years running for political office."

John Edwards Announces 30-County Iowa Bus Tour
John Edwards campaign announced a week-long bus tour through Iowa starting in two weeks and culminating in the August 19 debate at Drake University. The "Fighting for One America" tour targets state fairs and town hall meetings as well as many other venues across the state.

Tancredo Offering Supporters Capital/Capitol Tours — Legal?
Tom Tancredo is now offering a fun package to anyone who can bring 25 people to the Ames straw poll on his behalf: A free trip to Washington, dinner with the candidate, a tour of the Capitol. The problem, however, is that this may be a violation of House ethics rules, which prohibit the use of the Capitol grounds for campaign purposes. They may however, have found a loophole, as spokeswoman Bay Buchanan says the tour is of Washington in general — such as Tancredo's favorite monuments and other sights — including a standard "public tour" of the Capitol building.

Republican Lawyer Pushing For GOP-Friendly Electoral College "Reform" In California
The New Yorker reports that prominent Republican lawyer Thomas W. Hiltachk has established an astroturf group called "Californians for Equal Representation," sponsoring a drive for a 2008 referendum to allot the state's electoral votes by who carries the individual House districts, plus two for the statewide winner. The same system is used in Nebraska and Maine, but those states are so small, not to mention politically homogenous, that the electoral votes do not actually get split in practice. In California's case, however, this would give the GOP's nominee roughly 20 electoral votes they would not otherwise get in Democratic California.

(A moment of commentary: Electoral College reform is a good idea — though this system would be utterly horrendous, rewarding Congressional gerrymandering with an impact on the presidential race. That said, true reform can only be undertaken if a large number of states do it at once, in cooperation with each other. Otherwise, minority parties in individual states will simply seek unilateral "reform" as a way of weakening that state's overall impact and aiding their national parties — as was attempted unsuccessfully by some liberal groups in Colorado in 2004. — E.K.)

The battle between Hillary and the White House over Pentagon troop withdrawal plans has just heated up again in a big way.

Staking out a position at odds with that of his own Defense Secretary, Dick Cheney was just quoted on CNN saying that he agrees with a Pentagon official's recent assertion that Hillary Clinton's request for info about withdrawal contingency plans is helpful to the enemy.

In an excerpt from an interview with Larry King set to air later today that was just shown on the network, Cheney was asked whether he agreed with an earlier assessment by Under Secretary of Defense Eric Edelman, who recently sent Clinton a letter chiding her request for info about the plans as helpful to "enemy propaganda." Cheney's reply: "I agreed...I thought it was a good letter."

In response, Hillary spokesman Philippe Reines emailed us a statement pointing out that Cheney had broken with his own SecDef on the issue.

"It seems the right hand doesn’t know what the far-right hand is doing," Reines said in the statement sent to Election Central. "Senator Clinton calls on President Bush to set the record straight."

According to sources, Clinton will be sending a letter directly to Bush tomorrow to demand that he clarify the White House's position on the question.

More after the jump.

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A new study — albeit one by a Democratic consulting firm — contains polling data indicating that the pundits who claim voters are holding both parties equally responsible for gridlock in D.C. are, well, completely wrong.

Rather, the study, which was just released by top Dem polling firm Democracy Corps, concludes that voters are blaming the GOP, far more than Democrats, for partisan gridlock in Washington.

"Some have focused on the gridlock, partisan bickering and the declining esteem and concluded the electorate is poised to say, 'a pox on both your houses,'" the study says. "Many in the press have reported both parties as equal offenders against the public good and sensibilities. That completely misreads the current moment and the trends unfolding before them."

Democracy Corps polled 70 of the top competitively Congressional district — 35 held by Democrats, 35 by Republicans — and asked respondents whether they agreed with four statements about Congress and the White House. The answers were eye-opening.

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Obama's new TV ad in Iowa -- which we posted below -- offers the following as one of its key lines:

"I know I haven't spent a lot of time learning the ways of Washington. But I've been there long enough to know that the ways of Washington must change."

That's a key Obama line. It's worth noting, though, that John Edwards actually deserves credit for coming up with it. A reader sends in this, from Edwards' 2003 Presidential campaign announcement speech:

"I haven't spent most of my life in politics, which most of you know, but I have spent enough time in Washington to know how much we need to change Washington."

Not a huge deal, obviously, and perhaps the statute of limitations on a sentiment like this has long run out. Still, credit where credit's due, and all that.

Update: Also worth noting: David Axelrod was Edwards' media adviser then, and he's advising Obama now.

Romney hits the airwaves in Iowa with new immigration ad:

In the ad, which comes as Romney prepares for the Ames straw poll on August 11, the candidate says illegals have to "get in line" with legals to enter the country. And it also features his period-larded slogan: "Strong. New. Leadership." Think that last line was focus-grouped, by any chance?

The battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton over Obama's debate comments has now spilled over into a fight between Obama and Rudy Giuliani, with Rudy elbowing his way into the controversy by declaring that Hillary was "right."

In response, an Obama spokesperson hit back in a statement emailed to us, saying that the Illinois Senator "fundamentally disagrees" with Rudy.

Rudy pushed his way into the feud in an article just posted on New York magazine's web site. The mag quotes Rudy slamming Obama for saying he'd meet without preconditions with leaders of hostile nations as follows:

"I’d say don’t count on Fidel Castro being invited to the White House if I’m president."

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A new SurveyUSA poll shows Senator Norm Coleman (R-MN) ahead of the competition but below 50%. Coleman leads Al Franken 49%-42%, and beats lawyer Mike Ciresi 48%-42%. Compare this to their poll from February, when Coleman led Franken 57%-35% and beat Ciresi by a similar 57%-34%.

As we'd previously noted, Coleman's net approval rating has gone into negative territory in SurveyUSA polling, 43% approval to 48% disapproval.

Coleman's political downturn may have had something to do with his status among WINO (Waverer In Name Only) Republicans on Iraq — he will publicly talk about his doubts on Iraq, but he has not yet voted in any way to actually change the policies there. The latest example was the cloture vote that Democrats held after the recent Senate all-nighter: Four Republicans voted with the Democrats, but Coleman voted again with the GOP.

So while Coleman may have seemed politically invulnerable just a few months ago, the debate on Iraq has definitely taken a toll.

Talk about counterintuitive. Guess which major Presidential candidates are trusted to handle the Iraq War by the highest number of respondents in a new poll?

John McCain and Rudy Giuliani.

Seriously. From a new Gallup poll:

This despite the fact that...

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Here's the new ad that the Obama campaign will start airing tomorrow in Iowa:

The ad, entitled "Take It Back," ad uses footage from his declaration speech this past February, in which he told the crowd, "I know that I haven't spent a lot of time learning the ways of Washington. But I've been there long enough to know, the ways of Washington must change." The narrator then talks about Obama's work on ethics reform, and his refusal of PAC money in his campaign — bolstering his ongoing efforts to make government reform a centerpiece of his campaign.

Barack Obama appears to be catching up with Hillary in New Hampshire and South Carolina while losing ground to her in Iowa, a new poll just released by the American Research Group finds.

Democrats

Iowa
Clinton 30%
Edwards 21%
Obama 15%
Richardson 13%

New Hampshire
Clinton 31%
Obama 31%
Edwards 14%

South Carolina
Obama 33%
Clinton 29%
Edwards 18%

Meanwhile, among the Republicans...

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So the media lavished an endless amount of coverage yesterday on the now-infamous Times Op ed by Kenneth Pollack and Michael O'Hanlon arguing that the "surge" is working.

Which prompted Glenn Greenwald, Atrios, and Think Progress to all raise the eternal question again today: Why were Pollack and O'Hanlon granted so much media play yesterday to trumpet their views despite having gotten it so wrong so many times in the past?

Why hasn't their repeated wrongness undercut them among peers, cast doubt on their judgment, and made the big news orgs reluctant to offer them a platform to continue being wrong from?

Let me take a crack at offering an admittedly simple answer: Their professional peers simply can't judge them harshly and hold them accountable for getting it so disastrously wrong, because to do so would require judging themselves harshly and holding themselves accountable.

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Looks like Congressman John Doolittle (R-CA), a TPMmuckraker all-star, has a primary challenge on his hands.

The Sacramento Bee reports that Eric Egland, a security consultant and intelligence officer in the Air Force Reserves, will challenge Doolittle in a GOP primary next year. Although Egland has campaigned with Doolittle in the past and praised his staunch support for the Iraq War, he now says bluntly that he is running against Doolittle because he doesn't think the incumbent can win re-election.

"If John Doolittle is the nominee, we will surrender our conservative voice in Washington, D.C., for a generation," Egland says.

Doolittle won re-election by a mere 49%-46% margin last year, despite representing a district that President Bush carried in 2004 with a more than impressive 61% of the vote, thanks to his connections to the Jack Abramoff scandal.

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It looks as if Obama's already formidable fundraising operation may be growing even stronger, now that it's getting an assist from one of the most wealthy and influential women in the world: Oprah.

The Chicago Sun-Times reports that Oprah's $2,300-per-plate fundraiser for Obama has already sold out. According to the paper, demand is such that even members of Obama's own fundraising team are limited to "only" seven tickets per person for the event, which will take place at Oprah's home on September 8.

Of course, it remains to be seen if Oprah can leverage her devoted audience of millions into actually voting for Obama, but having her raising money for the campaign is a pretty big coup in and of itself.

"Only Michael Moore, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards, I guess, would want to go to Cuba for health care."

This should make for some decent TV.

Dem Presidential candidate Chris Dodd has agreed to go on Bill O'Reilly's show to defend YearlyKos against O'Reilly's ongoing assault against the gathering and against DailyKos, Dodd's spokesperson confirmed to Election Central.

The move is significant because it will make Dodd the first Presidential candidate to personally appear on a leading right-wing show for the explicit purpose of defending the liberal blogosphere. It's got to be seen as a sign of the times -- and of current shifts in Democratic politics -- that a Presidential candidate would view such an appearance in defense of Kos' liberal blogging community and the netroots in general as an asset to a Presidential campaign.

Dodd's spokesperson, Hari Sevugan, tells Election Central that the Senator will hit O'Reilly hard for his smear tactic of selecting a few isolated comments out of literally hundreds of thousands or even millions of comments to smear the whole site and the netroots in general.

"Democrats aren't going to be lectured to by Bill O'Reilly about the crudeness of language," Sevugan says. "Senator Dodd will point out O'Reilly's hypocrisy in singling out a handful of these comments and talking about how extreme they are when many of the comments O'Reilly himself has made have been equally extreme and disturbing."

"To pick three or four out of millions of comments in the blogosphere is patently unfair," Sevugan continued. "But it's not surprising that O'Reilly would employ such a tactic."

Hillary's spokesperson, Howard Wolfson, has already appeared on O'Reilly to fight back against his campaign against YearlyKos.

That Dodd would see the potential for political gain in such a move is representative of a larger development in Campaign 2008 that we've noted here before: The more and more frequent use by the Dem campaigns of aggressive pushback against right wing media figures, on behalf of themselves and others, to appeal to Dem primary voters in general and the netroots in particular. We've already seen Bill Clinton's on-air criticism of Fox News' Chris Wallace, the Edwards' campaign's repeated attacks on Ann Coulter, and the Dem boycotts of the Fox-sponsored debates.

And now Dodd's appearance on O'Reilly. The Dodd campaign -- like the other campaigns -- has aggressively courted the lib blogosphere, defending YearlyKos early on and signing up with the Reid-Feingold Iraq withdrawal amendment, among other things.

Dodd will appear on O'Reilly tomorrow night.

Obama: I Will Not Leave Iraq Immediately
Barack Obama told an Iowa crowd that as president, he would order the Joint Chiefs of Staff to draw up a plan to begin withdrawing from Iraq — but such a withdrawal could not be immediate. "This will be a messy withdrawal," Obama said of the idea of pulling out overnight. "People who say we’ll just pull them out are irresponsible." Instead, the process would have to be slower.

Thompson Raised $3 Million In June — Campaign Spinning It
Fred Thompson's campaign will confirm today that they raised $3 million this past June, short of the $5 million goal that had been set. Jim Geraghty reports that the campaign is spinning the shortfall by noting that Thompson hasn't run for anything since the 1990's, and that he actually took in more in June than Rudy Giuliani and John McCain did in their first exploratory months. Geraghty comments: "I wonder how many potential donors are holding off, because they want to donate to an actual, hat-in-the-ring candidate, not a dipping-my-toe-in-the-water potential candidate."

Bill Clinton Highlights Agreement Between Hillary And Obama
Former President Bill Clinton said yesterday that his wife and Barack Obama had a "vigorous agreement" on the merits of diplomacy. "I've heard no fewer than four candidates in the last month remind us that in the middle of the Cold War, in the darkest hours, we never stopped talking to the Soviets at some level," he said, speaking at the Democratic Leadership Council meeting yesterday. "So nobody disputes that. And we're going to have to do that."

Poll: Coleman Ahead, But Vulnerable
A new SurveyUSA poll shows Senator Norm Coleman (R-MN) ahead of the competition but below 50%. Coleman leads Al Franken 49%-42%, and beats lawyer Mike Ciresi 48%-42%. Compare this to their poll from February, when Coleman led Franken 57%-35% and beat Ciresi by a similar 57%-34%.

NRCC Asks For FEC Probe Of Dem Candidate Kissell
The National Republican Congressional Committee has asked the Federal Election Commission to investigate accounting irregularities in Congressional candidate Larry Kissell's (D-NC) campaign, regarding the candidate's own loans to his campaign. "Kissell’s debt magically disappears then reappears with no rhyme or reason as to how debt was paid or created," the NRCC letter read. A Kissell spokesman said the campaign had recently switched accounting software and consolidated various debts into a single loan, and the NRCC move comes as no surprise given the fact that Kissell barely lost to a GOP incumbent last year and has already gained the DCCC's support for 2008.

Florida Candidate Christine Jennings Late On Payroll Taxes
Democratic Congressional candidate Christine Jennings didn't pay payroll taxes for three years on one of her campaign committees, The Hill reports. The payments involved expenses from her unsuccessful run in the Democratic primary in 2004. Jennings ultimately won the nomination in 2006 but lost in a disputed election result, and is running again in 2008. The campaign eventually made payments to the IRS this past May. "When Christine recognized the problem, she took steps to fix it — to correct the problem," spokesman David Kochman said. "That includes contracting with a payroll service." In 2006, Jennings attacked her primary opponent for failing to pay taxes on a Washington condominium.

Rep. McGovern Proposes Iraq War Tax
Representative James McGovern (D-MA) is proposing a new "Iraq tax" to personalize the exorbitant cost of the war for all Americans (service members and their families would be exempted). "It would make everybody sacrifice," said McGovern. "So far, the only ones who have felt the impact of this war is a small sliver of the citizenry." Few details have been proposed and McGovern said he hasn't talked about the idea with leadership.

Brownback Woos McCain Supporters For Straw Poll
John McCain's supporters now have a new way to support their candidate in the upcoming Ames, Iowa straw poll despite the fact he is not participating -- support Sam Brownback. The novel idea, unsurprisingly created by the Brownback campaign, is pitched as support for McCain's values by rooms packed full of interns on cell phones. "I see here that you’re supporting John McCain, correct?" one said on the phone. "McCain has chosen not to participate in the straw poll, and we’d like you to show your support for his values by voting for Brownback."

This should make for some good TV.

Dem Presidential candidate Chris Dodd has agreed to go on Bill O'Reilly's show to defend YearlyKos against O'Reilly's ongoing assault against the gathering and against DailyKos, Dodd's spokesperson confirmed to Election Central.

The move is significant because it will make Dodd the first Presidential candidate to personally appear on the show to try and counter O'Reilly's ongoing smear of the annual blogger conference. It's a sign of the times that a Presidential candidate would view such an appearance in defense of Kos' liberal blogging community as an asset to a Presidential campaign.

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Edwards Campaign To Deliver Giant Constitution To Gonzales

An e-mail from Joe Trippi of the John Edwards campaign has asked supporters to sign a petition calling for Attorney General Alberto Gonzales to resign if he doesn't "remember the constitution that you have sworn to uphold." The Edwards camp promises that "we will send one copy of the Constitution to Gonzales' office for every person who signs our petition. If we reach our goal of 25,000 signatures, we will add all the names to the biggest copy of the Constitution you have ever seen — and send that to his office too!"

Schumer Comes Out Against Proposed Dem Corporate Tax Hike

Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY), widely admired for his hard work as the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chairman last cycle and also for this one, has come out against a set of proposed tax increases on corporate investors. Although Schumer is often identified with the party's populist wing, he cited the potential for Wall Street businesses to leave his state or even the country if the proposals become law. "Unintended consequences often occur when you do major tax work. And you have to be careful," Schumer said.

Giuliani: Dems Will Raise Taxes 20 To 30 Percent

Rudy Giuliani attacked his Democratic opponents for planning to create a "nanny government" and – well, how should we say this – lied about their plans for higher taxes on capital gains. "Democrats are kind of falling over each other seeing who can raise taxes faster," Giuliani said. "It looks like they're going to raise taxes anywhere between 20 to 30 percent. John Edwards just said he's going to raise the capital gains tax double that. Last time we did that, we lost 40 percent in revenue. The last time we did what John Edwards is discussing, the United States lost revenue by basically discouraging people from making investments."

Clyburn: I Might Not Endorse In The Primaries

House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-SC) told CNN that if the Democratic race is still in the same general state in December as it is now, he might not make any endorsement. "I have three daughters, and there are splits in my household, as to who the preferences are," Clyburn observed humorously.

Clinton Cancels Rally With N.J. Pol

Hillary Clinton's campaign canceled a public appearance with Jersey City Councilman Steven Fulop, but will still attend a $1,000-a-plate dinner fundraiser. PoliticsNJ.com speculates that Clinton may have canceled the appearance so as not become entangled in local politics — Fulop is believed to be considering a challenge against Congressman Albio Sires in the Democratic primary.

Democrat Aggressively Fundraising Against Shadegg

Congressional Quarterly reports that Democratic attorney Bob Lord has $232,000 cash on hand in his run against Congressman John Shadegg (R-AZ), a high-profile conservative who himself barely edges Lord with $281,000 on hand. Shadegg shifted his fundraising machine into overdrive after Lord out-raised him seven-fold in the first quarter, and still just overtakes him in cash on hand. Lord still has his work cut out for him, as the district went 58% for President Bush in 2004, and Shadegg has not been targeted in the past.

Huckabee Reaches Out To Michael Moore, And Confirms For YouTube Debate

Mike Huckabee is calling upon Michael Moore to have a dialogue about the health care issues, they can agree on, specifically preventive care, increasing access and overall encouraging people to live better lifestyle. "The two of us may have something in common: a passion for reforming the health care system in America," Huckabee wrote to Moore. Though he added that he is strongly skeptical of Moore's call for socialized medicine, this is definitely an improvement over when Huckabee said Moore was himself an example of the health problems in America. In other news, Huckabee confirmed his participation in the YouTube debate that Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani have been dodging — joining John McCain and Ron Paul as the confirmed attendees.

Kucinich Interns Still Fresh Faced, Up For Adoption

Dennis Kucinich's campaign has just released more footage of his adoring interns, part of his effort to draw more contributions by allowing supporters to "Adopt An Intern." This newest painfully awkward video is set to folk music this time and features the interns fumbling with their microphones and lamenting the limited amount of time their hero got to speak at the debates:

Trifecta!

All three cable networks have now described either Kenneth Pollack or Michael O'Hanlon as a "critic" of Bush's war policies.

As we reported earlier today, in their much-discussed Op ed today projecting optimism about Iraq, O'Hanlon and Pollack described themselves as harsh critics of Bush's Iraq policies, without noting that both were prominent backers of the invasion and the surge. This created the misleading impression that they were counterintuitively saying that the surge just might work.

Alas, all three networks fell for this line in a big way, playing up their "critic" status and glossing over the fact that they've aggressively supported the war for years. Check out the networks' quotes after the jump.

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Rudy Giuliani's campaign just posted this video of the candidate at an event in Iowa using a question on the genocide in Darfur to launch into a tirade against the United Nations. It may come as no surprise that Giuliani had a much different position while mayor of New York City. In fact, he once called it "critical to America's continuing mission to foster freedom and democracy throughout the world" when addressing the opening of the 50th U.N. General Assembly session in 1995.

"I just haven't seen the U.N. be effective in many ways.... Then you want to look at the bigger issues. Every big issue that we face and that we have faced since I can't remember when, maybe the Cuban Missile Crisis, the U.N. has been irrelevant," Giuliani says, throwing up his arms.

Read more for a relevant excerpt from Rudy's address to the "crucial forum."

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Rudy Giuliani's campaign has just posted the following video of the candidate at an event in Iowa in which he described the United Nations as "irrelevant," clearly bid to appeal to GOP voters who detest the U.N.:

Rudy said:

"I just haven't seen the U.N. be effective in many ways.... Then you want to look at the bigger issues. Every big issue that we face and that we have faced since I can't remember when, maybe the Cuban Missile Crisis, the U.N. has been irrelevant."

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At a campaign appearance today in Iowa, Barack Obama hammered the nexus of oil, insurance, and pharmaceutical special interests that are blocking progressive legislation in Washington, decrying the current concentration of corporate power as a "second Gilded Age." From the Chicago Tribune:

"The reason that we're not getting things done is not because we don't have good plans or good policy prescriptions," Obama said. "The reason is because it's not our agenda that's being moved forward in Washington -- it's the agenda of the oil companies, the insurance companies, the drug companies, the special interests who dominate on a day-to-day basis in terms of legislative activity."...

"We can't settle for a second 'Gilded Age' in America," Obama said in a reference to Roosevelt's time at the turn of the 20th Century. "Unfortunately, that's what we're seeing these days."

There's been a fair amount of commentary out there suggesting that John Edwards' aggressively populist campaign has yanked the Dem primary debate to the left in a salutary way.

The Trib, which covers Obama closely, thinks that by evoking Theodore Roosevelt's crusades against wealth-concentration, Obama "echoed the rhetoric" of Edwards. Either way, it's certainly interesting to hear the candidates, at least rhetorically, framing the debate in such stark terms, without worrying about the "class warfare" countercharge that for so long set Dems quaking and scurrying off to their consultants for advice.

Everybody has already taken their whacks at today's Times Op ed by Michael O'Hanlon and Kenneth Pollack of the Brookings Institution, which argued that we "just might win" the war and that the political debate in Washington is "surreal" and out of touch with the progress being made there.

But here's an amusing postscript to this whole saga. It turns out that this assessment by O'Hanlon today is in some key ways strikingly at odds with...

...the Brookings Institution's own Iraq Index, a meticulous and regularly updated compilation of stats designed to paint as realistic a portrait as possible of the situation on the ground.

And guess who oversees the Brookings Iraq Index?

Yup -- it's overseen by Michael O'Hanlon.

More after the jump.

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Fun with flashbacks.

As you know, Mitt Romney is skipping the YouTube debate. His campaign claims that this is because of his heavy fundraising schedule, though it seems more likely that Romney's concerned that he'll get confronted by members of the public about his past YouTube flip-flops and excursions into social liberalism.

But just for the fun of it, let's check out what Romney had to say not long ago about Dems who skipped the Fox debate. Short version: He basically called them cowards.

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Looks like Alaska Dems are lining up to take on GOP Rep. Don Young, a TPMmuckraker all-star who's held his seat for more than three decades.

Anchorage TV station KTUU reports that Alaska State Dem chairman Jake Metcalfe is filing paperwork this morning announcing his bid for Young's seat. He's the second Dem to announce a run.

Metcalfe's focus: An ongoing Federal investigation of Young's ties to VECO Corporation, an Alaska-based oil field services company that's part of a public corruption probe.

TPMmuckraker's coverage of Young is right here.

Vanity Fair magazine has just released a massive and lively new profile of Judi Giuliani that depicts her as a vain social climber. To say the piece doesn't exactly paint a flattering picture is an understatement — indeed, the Mrs. Giuliani of this article practically makes Madame Emma Bovary look reserved and dignified.

It wasn't easy to choose a favorite nugget — there's an endless supply of great moments in the piece — but here's our pick for the best one:

A dramatic transformation has occurred, one she does not care to discuss, despite repeated requests by Vanity Fair. She had always been known as "Judi." "Judi is what she was born. I don't think we called her Judith ever," says her father, Donald Stish, 78, seated on his porch one sultry June day in the shade of a gray metal awning. He is a calm, thick-set man who marvels at his daughter's makeover. After her second divorce, she upgraded herself to "Judith" with such vehemence that, one former Giuliani aide confides, "at City Hall we were prohibited from calling her Judi. She would bawl us out if we did."

The whole thing is here.

Democracy Corps, the firm of top Democratic pollsters James Carville and Stan Greenberg, has conducted a series of focus groups and reached a stark conclusion: Voters aren't crediting the Dem-Controlled Congress with changing things in any way.

In a new memo, the firm lays out the results of focus groups it held in a pair of Congressional district held by GOP moderates who barely survived 2006, Mark Kirk (IL) and Jim Walsh (NY).

"Democrats in Congress are given credit for wanting change and most especially for ensuring that Bush no longer has a blank check from Congress," the memo says. "But in most voters’ minds, it boils down to results; good intentions and legitimate finger-pointing aside, things simply haven’t changed under Democratic control."

The memo concludes that Dems would fare better if they worked harder to focus voter attention on the fact that the Dem leadership's agenda is being stymied by Presidential vetors and GOP obstructionism.

"This message fundamentally shifted the debate in the groups," the pollsters conclude, "with voters wondering why Democrats weren't including those facts in their advertising and expressing shock that Republicans are continuing to support President Bush and to defend his vetoes."

"When you look at the calculation that goes into everything that Hillary Clinton does, for her to argue that she was not aware of what she was communicating by her dress is like Barry Bonds saying he thought he was rubbing down with flaxseed oil."

-- Political analyst John Harwood, speaking yesterday on Meet the Press about Hillary's showing of cleavage on the Senate floor. Your punditry, ladies and gents. One wonders what exactly Hillary was supposed to be "communicating" here.

Okay, here's another entry for the Atrios Friedman Unit Database -- which as you know is keeping track of the endless times over the years that GOP pols and pundits have called for giving it "one last shot" in Iraq.

Michael O'Hanlon and Kenneth Pollack have jointly published an Op Ed in today's Times called: "A War We Just Might Win." Here's what the two men have to say about their previous support of the war:

As two analysts who have harshly criticized the Bush administration’s miserable handling of Iraq, we were surprised by the gains we saw and the potential to produce not necessarily “victory” but a sustainable stability that both we and the Iraqis could live with.

...and that's it. No mention anywhere of the fact that both men very prominently backed the initial invasion and the "surge." Now we're expected to see these two experts as merely administration "critics" -- and harsh ones, at that.

That seems pretty questionable in and of itself -- readers who don't know their histories are unable to ask themselves whether they should be trusting their judgment and can't ask themselves to what extent their professional reputations may be tied up in what happens in Iraq.

What's more, here's what O'Hanlon and Pollack have to say in their Times Op ed on the question of how long we should continue the "surge":

How much longer should American troops keep fighting and dying to build a new Iraq while Iraqi leaders fail to do their part? And how much longer can we wear down our forces in this mission? These haunting questions underscore the reality that the surge cannot go on forever. But there is enough good happening on the battlefields of Iraq today that Congress should plan on sustaining the effort at least into 2008.

But...but...but...

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McCain May Battle Feingold On Ethics And Earmarks

Senators John McCain (R-AZ) and Russ Feingold (D-WI), former allies on campaign finance reform, are set to battle it out this week over proposed changes to another ethics reform package including disclosure of earmarks. Feingold was recruited by the majority leader to shepherd the bill's passage while McCain has been outspoken in his opposition to the secretive process under which it was amended – as well as proposing a filibuster if its earmark-related provisions are weakened.

War Proponents O'Hanlon and Pollock: Let's Continue Surge Into 2008

Michael O'Hanlon and Kenneth Pollock -- two very prominent backers of both the invasion and the "surge" -- are yet again granted a major platform by The New York Times to continue hawking their support for the war.



San Francisco Chronicle Looks At Rise Of Local Man Kos

In honor of this week's YearlyKos convention, the San Francisco Chronicle examines the rise of liberal bloggers in general and Berkeley resident Markos "Kos" Moulitsas in particular. Kos takes some pride in the fact that the presidential candidates will be visiting the convention, but not going to the Democratic Leadership Council's annual event. "It's hilarious that [Hillary Clinton's] not even attending her own group," he said.

Giuliani Unveils Health-Care Plan In N.H. Today

Rudy Giuliani has decried other candidates' plans for "socialized medicine" but today he is set to disclose details of the seventh of his 12 commitments – "give Americans more control over and access to health care." Giuliani has previously announced his plan would include tax deductions, health savings accounts, vouchers and reform of Medicaid and tort law.

Obama Corresponds To David Brody — Denounces Merging Of Religion And GOP

In a new e-mail interview with David Brody, political blogger for Pat Robertson's Christian Broadcasting Network, Barack Obama stood by his rhetoric that faith has been "hijacked" by the religious right: "When you have pastors and television pundits who appear to explicitly coordinate with one political party; when you're implying that your fellow Americans are traitors, terrorist sympathizers or akin to the devil himself; then I think you're attempting to hijack the faith of those who follow you for your own personal or political ends."

Some States Banking On February 5 Not Clinching The Race

The Boston Globe reports that some analysts believe the February 5 national primary might not in fact determine the nominee — that the field will still be too crowded. Indeed, some states have deliberately not moved up their primary to that day, believing their states could instead be the final showdown. "Ohio is going to be the ace in the hole for some presidential candidates," said Ohio-based GOP consultant Mark Weaver. "There are too many people in the race for anyone to emerge as a clear winner on Feb. 5"

McCain Stumps On Budget

John McCain has taken to attending minor league ball-games, diners and house parties instead of large rallies, reminding people about his principled maverick positions in a distinguished Senate career. Supporters are spinning the changes, brought on by financial instability and a huge staff exodus, as a liberation from the burden of being a frontrunner. "We've got to live off the land," said Trey Walker, McCain's South Carolina strategic consultant. "[McCain] is free to be McCain."

AP: Old Sexual Harassment Suit Could Hurt Bloomberg

The Associated Press reports that Mike Bloomberg was the target of a sexual harassment suit back in 2000, before he was ever elected mayor in 2001. The suit was settled out of court, but newly emerging details could hurt any possible presidential ambitions — such as when the plaintiff became pregnant, Bloomberg allegedly made the suggestion that she get an abortion.

Colbert Asks For Apology From Pelosi, For Unspecified Reason

Stephen Colbert went to Capitol Hill last week to play a little power politics. He met House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in a hallway and offered a blanket apology for content on his show. "I want to apologize for some of the things I've said [about you] on the show," said Colbert. "Would you like to apologize to me? ... If you ask for my forgiveness, it might lead to some healing." Pelosi declined. Colbert did not specify what exactly he wanted an apology for, but it might have had something to do with the Democratic leadership team's position of discouraging members from going on Colbert's "Better Know A District" feature.

Paul Uses Technology Of Folk Song To Attract Google Support

Ron Paul's campaign, in a possible homage to The Goldwaters, has released a video of his visit three weeks ago to the Googleplex, introduced by a song entitled "If You Google Ron Paul." Don't miss interviews of Google employees near the end of the 14-minute video heaping praise on Paul, who plans to take government out of almost all current public policy arenas.

Rove To GOP: You Lost 2006, Not Us
Bob Novak reports in his latest column that Karl Rove recently briefed a closed-door meeting of Republican House candidates, telling them to make it clear to voters that they were not involved with House corruption scandals such as Mark Foley and Duke Cunningham. Rove said corruption was the real reason for the GOP's losses last year. "In effect," Novak writes, "Rove was rebutting the complaint inside the party that George W. Bush is responsible for Republican miseries by invading Iraq."

Dems Looking At Rhode Island 2006 For Maine 2008 Strategy
Democrats are developing a strategy for knocking off Senator Susan Collins (R-ME): The idea is to use last year's successful toppling of Rhode Island GOP Senator Lincoln Chafee as a model for 2008's Senate race in Maine. The idea is to tie her as tightly as possible to President Bush, whose popularity in the New England region could scarcely be lower. But GOP sources dispute that such a strategy will work in Maine, which has tended to be much more favorable ground for the Republican even if it is Dem-leaning. "People, sort of from a distance, compare Rhode Island and Maine, but the only thing we really have in common is both root for the Red Sox," said Collins' chief of staff Steve Abbott.

Richardson: If Nominated, I Will Name A Shadow Cabinet
Bill Richardson told a New Hampshire crowd that if he is nominated, he will publicly name the members of his potential cabinet during the general election campaign. The practice of the opposition party naming a shadow cabinet is a mainstay of politics in parliamentary systems, with shadow secretaries actively involved in enunciating what the party's policies would be if they were put in charge of the government.

Vilsack Hits Obama On Hillary's Behalf
Tom Vilsack, who endorsed Hillary Clinton after dropping his own campaign for president, is joining the Hillary/Obama fight over whether to meet hostile foreign leaders and under what conditions. Notably, Vilsack is accusing Obama of some double-talk on this issue, noting some contrary comments Obama had made only one day before last week's debate. "I would hope the senator would clarify his comments as to whether or not he is for preconditions or not and would cease and desist from distorting the record and comments of Senator Clinton," Vilsack said.

NYT Looks At Hillary's College Letters
An old pen pal of Hillary Clinton from her college days has supplied the New York Times with all the letters she sent to him during those years, proving an in-depth look at Hillary as a human being. The letters in part detail her drift away from the Republican Party of her youth and her conversion to the Democrats. One line, discussing the existential crises that confront everybody at that age, might just be exploited by the right wingers: "Since Xmas vacation, I've gone through three and a half metamorphoses and am beginning to feel as though there is a smorgasbord of personalities spread before me."

Bush Administration Removes Partisan Attack From Weekly Address
CNN reports that the Bush Administration removed a section of the president's weekly radio address, attacking Democrats for delaying passage of a FISA reform law, after Democrats saw the early transcript. The full section, initially recorded by President Bush: "Every day that Congress puts off these reforms increases the danger to our nation." After Democrats complained, the White House ultimately decided to go back and edit out that section of audio, in an effort to improve relations and actually get the law passed.

NYT Looks At Trouble In Thompsonland
In an article published yesterday, the New York Times looks at the troubles in Fred Thompson's undeclared campaign, with fundraising reportedly be less than what they'd expected and prominent staffers resigning. The troubles seem to be coming from two sources: An overall lack of structure and uncertainty over when Thompson will officially declare, plus frustration that too much power has been given to Thompson's wife Jeri, herself a former political operative.

Union Leader Profiles A Passionate Paul Head
In a feature story published today, the New Hampshire Union Leader profiles Kelly Halldorson of Dover, a dedicated Ron Paul supporter and working-class libertarian with her own novel idea of how to spread the word about her candidate: Walking from Dover to Concord in one day — a distance of 38 miles — handing out Paul literature all the way. Whether she actually makes it the whole way, and whether or not she actually wins any votes for Paul, Halldorson will nevertheless get a great workout.