Okay, prediction time. Pretty soon we're gonna have a new media narrative on our hands that runs something like this:

Democratic legislative efforts to mandate withdrawal from Iraq -- and GOP opposition to those efforts -- each represent the left-wing and right-wing base in the argument over the war. The middle ground is occupied by the Great Compromisers -- mostly GOP politicians and perhaps a few conservative Dems who are proposing the "compromise" of asking Bush to withdraw from Iraq, rather than legislatively forcing him to do so.

There's already a glimmer of this storyline in today's New York Times coverage of the Iraq amendment introduced by Great Compromisers John Warner and Dick Lugar, both GOP Senators, which basically does little more than suggest that Bush start talking about withdrawal at some point. The piece says this:

“I think the trouble in this Senate is that too many of us — I try not to be one of them, but I do occasionally — are pandering to the base on both sides of the aisle,” said Senator George V. Voinovich, Republican of Ohio. “As a result of that, we don’t do the things that we should do.”

Take, for example, a vote in the House late on Thursday evening in which only four Republicans joined Democrats in passing a plan calling for a troop withdrawal to begin within 120 days, with a deadline of removing most troops — except an unspecified number needed for a limited mission — by April 1.

So, according to The Times, the Dems' most recent bill mandating withdrawal by next April is now an "example" of what Voinovich is warning against: "Pandering to the base."

Sorry, but this is bull-bleep of the worst sort, and small errors like this add up over time. This bill was not an example of "pandering to the base." This Dem withdrawal bill -- like most of the Democratic propopsals for pulling out -- represents the course of action desired by substantial majorities of the American people. Republican opposition to those proposals represents a small minority. All together now: Democrats represent the majority, which wants Congress to force withdrawal. Republicans -- yes, even Great Compromisers Warner and Lugar -- are blocking Congress from doing what the American people want.

Yes, it's a good thing in some ways that Warner and Lugar put this forward, and yes, Dems will need some Republicans to join them. But when describing the current political dynamic let's keep the cobwebs out of our heads and remember what's really going on here.

Obama: Hillary's Iraq Authorization Proposal Convoluted
During an Associated Press interview in Las Vegas, Barack Obama criticized Hillary Clinton's proposal to repeal the 2002 Iraq War authorization, and have President Bush seek a new one. "If you simply repeal the language, then presumably you'd have to reauthorize something. You've got 150,000 troops over there and support personnel," Obama said. "Why we would try that approach as opposed to simply setting a timetable for withdrawal strikes me as a convoluted approach to the problem," he added.

Edwards Unveils "Green Collar" Jobs Program
John Edwards has announced his "Green Collar" jobs program in the crucial state of Iowa. The proposals would create government certification for up to 150,000 workers in the emerging alternative energy economy, and would be paid for by having the government sell $10 billion in greenhouse pollution permits, plus repealing $3 billion in subsidies for oil companies. "We can turn the crisis of climate change into an opportunity for a new energy economy, right here in America – and Iowa in particular," Edwards said. "Now is the time to make sure that the economy of tomorrow is an all-aboard economy where nobody is left behind."

New York Times Fumbles Coverage Of Warner-Lugar Iraq Amendment
The New York Times's editors apparently believe that last week's Democratic bill mandating withdrawal from Iraq by April 2008 was "pandering to the base."

SEIU Gives Ultimatum For Endorsement
The Service Employees International Union has laid down a test for any candidate seeking its endorsement: Candidates must participate in their "Walk A Day In Our Shoes" program, and have a health-care plan, by August 1.

Romney Fundraising Declines Sharply In Utah And Massachusetts
Donations to Mitt Romney's campaign from his two strongest states in the first quarter, Utah and Massachusetts, declined steeply in the second quarter. Donations from Massachusetts fell from $2.3 million to $728,742, a 69% decline, and contributions from Utah fell from $2.8 million to $1.2, a 58% decline. This suggests that Romney may have tapped out his fundraising in those strongholds, with donors reaching the maximum $2,300 for the primary, and he would need to expand his donor base in other states from here on out.

Richardson Endorsed By Rocky Anderson
During a campaign stop in Utah, Bill Richardson was endorsed by Salt Lake City Mayor Rocky Anderson, a fiery liberal in right-wing Utah, who backs the impeachment of President Bush. "He is a man who believes in diplomacy," Anderson said of his favored candidate. "We wouldn't be in the midst of this debacle in Iraq if we had President Bill Richardson."

Senate Fundraising Shows Possible — But Not Definite — Retirements
The Hotline has a review of fundraising by key GOP Senators who are viewed as potential retirees in 2008. John Warner (VA) took in $71,000; Larry Craig (ID) $201,000; Chuck Hagel (NE) $388,000; and Thad Cochran (MS) $312,000. Bottom line: Craig, Hagel and Cochran might retire, but appear to have taken in just enough money to indicate they are keeping their options open. Warner may be considering running again, but if so his fundraising is still rather bare.

Yet Another Poll Has Sununu Losing To Shaheen — But Beating The Current Field
A new Research 2000 poll has first-term Senator John Sununu (R-NH) losing to former Democratic Governor and 2002 Senate nominee Jeanne Shaheen by a 56%-34% margin. Many state Democrats are trying to draft Shaheen, who currently heads up Harvard's John F. Kennedy Institute of Politics in neighboring Massachusetts. However, Sununu takes 46% against against any of the current lesser-known Democratic candidates — indeed, the current field are so unknown to the people, none of them exceed 35% support against the incumbent. Nevertheless, the current candidates may have room to grow in a state where President Bush has become massively unpopular.

Today GOP Senators Richard Lugar and John Warner got a bunch of news organizations very excited by submitting an amendment to the Defense Authorization bill that would require the President to submit alternate plans for Iraq. It is being billed by the press as a "tough challenge" to the President and his war.

But in many ways, this amendment – which you can read in our TPM Document Collection – is just a bad joke. It would require Bush to come up with a plan to reduce the troop presence in Iraq – but he wouldn't be required to come up with it until October, which of course is after Petraeus' report is due. This is in keeping with exactly what Bush wants, of course. He's asked Congress not to act until he can parade General Petraeus before the cameras in September to ask for yet more time. So it's not hard to imagine that this amendment could actually end up helping Bush, by letting him say to other antsy Republicans: "The very respectable and serious Warner and Lugar are skeptical of the war, and even they think in all their seriousness that Congress shouldn't act until after Petraeus speaks. So cool out."

Lugar himself gave away the game in his floor speech today, in which he actually characterized his own plan as follows:

I am hopeful that my counsel and that of many others who are weighing in with the President will lead to policy changes. But I have no illusions that what the Senate does during the amendment process to this Defense Authorization bill is now likely to affect the President’s decision about his strategy during the next two months.

It really doesn't get any clearer than that.

There are no specifics in this amendment to dictate what numbers of troops would need to be withdrawn, or by when. And the amendment actually contains this hilariously toothless line: "We recommend that the President and the Administration design plans to be executable beginning not later than December 31, 2007."

We recommend that the President do this? In other words, "Please, Mr. President, can you hurry up and start talking about pulling out? We're getting politically killed out here – pretty please"?

In other words, this amendment is exactly in keeping with the President's argument that Congress shouldn't dictate war policy lest it be "tying the hands of our generals" or "micromanaging the war" or whatever bogus and vacuous phrase you want to use.

Look, don't get me wrong. There are good things about having GOP Senators come out and introduce things like this. It moves the debate. It gives war opponents more leverage. It does increase pressure on Bush to do something. And Warner and Lugar appear to be genuine surge skeptics who want to see some sort of change of course. But let's be clear about this. The President has said he's staying in Iraq until he "wins." This amendment won't do a thing to force him to do otherwise, and in at least one way could conceivably help him buy time until the The Petraeus Show comes to town.

Harry Reid spokesperson Jim Manley just emailed me a response to the amendment introduced today by GOP Senators John Warner and Dick Lugar that asks the President to come up with an Iraq plan by the end of this year:

Senator Reid appreciates these two former Chairmen coming forward and expressing their clear discontent with the Administration’s policies in Iraq.

They clearly recognize there is no purely military solution in Iraq and that the war, on its current course, is making this nation less secure.

But they put a lot of faith in the President that he will voluntarily change course and voluntarily begin to reduce the large U.S. combat footprint in Iraq.

Unfortunately, Senator Reid is not as confident in the President’s willingness to change course voluntarily. In the fifth year of the war, we need strong legislation that compels the President to change course, change the mission, and begin the reduction of U.S. troops. That’s what Reed/Levin does. It is binding legislation, and that is the approach he prefers.

That's what we've been saying.

Romney Spent More In Second Quarter Than He Raised
Final fundraising and spending reports for the Republican candidates show Mitt Romney far outpacing the competition in the amount of money he's spent. Operating expenditures totaled $20.4 million, versus only $14 million raised. Romney made up the difference by giving $6.5 million from his personal fortune, in the form of a loan. Romney has had to spend more money than big names like Rudy Giuliani and John McCain, in order to raise his national profile. Meanwhile, Rudy Giuliani took in $15 million for the primary, and spent $11 million, leaving him with $14.6 million on hand for the primary.

Edwards Campaign Explains Opposing Ex-Con Voting Bill In 2002, Supporting It Now
John Edwards supported restoring voting rights for ex-convicts at a NAACP forum yesterday, but the former Senator voted against an amendment that would have done just that in 2002. An Edwards spokesman said voting against the amendment was designed to ensure the passage of the existing provisions of the voting rights bill.

Vitter To Return To Senate Next Week
Sen. David Vitter (R-LA), now hiding in an undisclosed location with his family after announcing Monday night that he was a patron of the infamous D.C. Madam, will return to the Capitol next Tuesday for roll call votes on Iraq after missing two this week, according to Senate colleague Jim DeMint (R-SC) who has been exchanging e-mails with Vitter. "Obviously he has a lot of remorse," DeMint said. "He seems to want to address it head on and not try to hide it."

ABC News: McCain The Next Comeback Kid?
Steve Benen has a nice catch: With John McCain losing staff, nearly broke, and plummeting in polls, the tough-minded journalists at ABC News are already asking in a headline to the Note whether he's going to be the "next Comeback Kid."

Iraq Amendment By GOP Senators Warner And Lugar Is A Sham
And it won't do anything to force the President's hand on Iraq. We make the case here.

Edwards: Trade Degrading Rural America
John Edwards told an Iowa crowd that trade policies have damaged rural America, and better planning of trade deals is needed to salvage the situation. "We've all seen what's happening," Edwards said. "Young people leave smaller towns and communities, and they don't come back. It's harder and harder to find good jobs, harder and harder to attract good teachers ... harder and harder to get access to good health care."

Clinton Condemns Blackstone Loophole, Promises Tax Reform
Hillary Clinton called a tax loophole that allows private equity and hedge fund managers to pay a low capital gains rate on high profits a "glaring inequity"and joined two of her rivals for the Democratic nomination, Barack Obama and John Edwards, in calling for passage of a bill on the subject now before Congress. "As president I will reform our tax code to ensure that the carried interest earned by some multimillionaire Wall Street managers is recognized for what it is: ordinary income that should be taxed at ordinary income tax rates," Clinton said.

In A Blow To Romney, Massachusetts GOP Drops Winner-Take-All Primary
The Massachusetts Republican State Committee changed a policy that commits all of their delegates to the winner of the primary. The move is seen as a loss for backers of Mitt Romney because he expected to win the state where he recently served as governor. "If Mitt Romney loses the primary next March in Massachusetts — which could happen — under the system that his supporters wanted, he would walk away with nothing," said committee member Stephen Zykofsky — a sign of just how hostile toward the former governor some state GOPers are. "At least with the system that I've proposed, he would salvage some delegates," added Zykofsky, who supports Rudy Giuliani.

Collins Raised $1.3 Million In Q2, $2.3 Million On Hand
Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) raised $200,000 more that her Democratic challenger last quarter, bringing in $1.3 million to Congressman Tom Allen's $1.1 million. Collins has a significant overall advantage thus far, with $2.3 million cash on hand to Allen's $1.7 million. Collins is facing extreme pressure over her pro-war position, an issue that Collins' fellow Maine Republican Olympia Snowe announced she was reconsidering earlier this week.

Prosecutor To Run Against GOP Rep. Jon Porter
Roll Call reports that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has recruited a candidate to oppose three-term Congressman Jon Porter (R-NV). Clark County prosecutor Robert Daskas has agreed to file as a candidate by the end of the summer or possibly sooner, once he completes a final stage of vetting with the DCCC. Porter was re-elected by a 48%-47% margin in 2006.

With Rudy Giuliani the target of a major media campaign from the international firefighter's union, Fred Thompson is actively moving in to poach the support of smoke-eaters on Rudy's home turf.

Today's New York Post reports that Thompson quietly slipped into New York yesterday to meet with one of Rudy's firefighter arch-foes, Sean Cassidy, the head of New York's local firefighter union. As we reported last week, Cassidy has pledged to destroy Rudy's candidacy.

Key nugget in the Post piece: The Thompson campaign is the one that requested the meeting.

One interesting footnote: Thompson is refusing to comment on the very thing that's got the firefighters steaming at Rudy in the first place -- that is, the alleged deficiencies in his 9/11 performance. "I do not know enough about those circumstances to even render an opinion," Thompson told the paper. If he's serious about wanting the firefighters' support, he may have to come up with an opinion fast.

Sen. Tim Johnson may still be recovering from emergency brain surgery, but that hasn't prevented his campaign from announcing today that it had hauled in some $600,000 in the last quarter.

The ailing Senator's tally comes mostly from the help of colleagues, who have helped him pull in a total of $1.3 million this year, leaving him with $1.8 million cash on hand.

Johnson is expected to be a top target of the GOP this year. But the only candidate to make serious noises about challenging him, State Rep. Joel Dykstra, isn't seen as a first-tier candidate and has something of a history of making, shall we say, impolitic remarks about the true meaning of the word "rape."

Sen. Tim Johnson may still be recovering from emergency brain surgery, but that hasn't prevented his campaign from ann hauling in some $600,000 in the last quarter.

The ailing Senator's tally comes mostly from the help of colleagues, who have helped him pull in a total of $1.3 million this year, leaving him with $1.8 million cash on hand.

Johnson is expected to be a top target of the GOP this year. But the only candidate to make serious noises about challenging him, State Rep. Joel Dykstra, isn't seen as a first-tier candidate.

Still more warning signs for the Dem-controlled Congress: A new Associated Press-Ipsos poll finds that while Bush's approval rating remains mired at 33%, Congress' has dropped well below that, to 24%. That's less than one out of four people, students.

The poll does break out Congressional Dems versus Republicans, and those numbers won't cheer Dems too much. It finds that approval of Congressional Dems has plummeted 21 points, from 48% in May to 27% now. The Repubs are stuck at 20%.

We'll bring you the full poll when it's available.

John McCain is giving a speech on Iraq right now that his campaign is billing as the start of a forceful comeback bid. The McCain camp has just sent out a copy of his prepared remarks, and it's clear that McCain's strategy for success is to furiously up the ante when it comes to seeing our monolithic, omnipotent enemy Al Qaeda around every corner.

Who knows -- maybe McCain's strategy is to run against Al Qaeda.

The speech oozes desperation. It's chock full of the usual flim flam and bells and whistles commonly used to appeal to the wingers who are deserting him. There's the obligatory attack on Hillary, the usual cant saying that if Dems accomplish withdrawal the terrorists will follow us here, etc., etc.

Perhaps the most revealing indicator of McCain's level of panic is that by my count McCain's speech mentions Al Qaeda 15 times, with not a single mention of Sunnis or Shiites. By way of comparison, that's more than three times the number of Al Qaeda references in the opening statement of Bush's presser yesterday (though in the entire presser Bush crushed McCain in the Al Qaeda reference sweepstakes with a total of 26). Anyway, you get the idea.

We have the full text of his prepared remarks after the jump. Take a look and let us know what you think.

Read more »

GOP Senator Jim Bunning just pulled off an interesting trick: This afternoon he voted against doubling the bounty on Osama Bin Laden's head — and defended the vote by saying he is more serious about fighting al Qaeda than the measure's sponsor is.

Bunning's proof that he's more serious about catching bin Laden? He wants American troops to stay in Iraq, and the bill's sponsor doesn't.

Bunning's amazing feat of prestidigitation came this morning, just after the Senate voted on an amendment to the Defense Authorization bill to double the reward for catching bin Laden from $25 million to $50 million. The measure was offered by Senator Byron Dorgan (D-ND), a proponent of withdrawal from Iraq. The roll call vote was 87-1 in favor. The sole vote against was Bunning's.

Bunning has now explained his vote in this wonderfully surreal statement:

"Catching Osama bin Laden and other leaders of al Qaeda is something the United States government has already made a top priority. If Senator Dorgan truly supported our efforts to fight al Qaeda he would not support withdrawing from Iraq, a key battleground against al Qaeda and in the War on Terror."

That's right: If you're more serious about catching bin Laden, you should stay in Iraq.

A new American Research Group finds that while Hillary still leads the Dem primary field, Barack Obama has climbed six points since last month:

Democrats
Clinton 38%
Obama 25%
Edwards 16%

The number of undecideds dropped since last month, and that fact combined with the fact that Hillary has held steady suggests that Obama's growth comes largely from picking up the support of undecided voters.

Meanwhile, Rudy has also picked up six point on the GOP side, widening his lead over Fred Thompson, who has slid into second place:

Republicans
Giuliani 30%
F. Thompson 17%
McCain 14%
Romney 10%
Gingrich 10%

GOP Senator Mitch McConnell made an appearance on CNN this morning, promptly revealing once again just how high his regard for his own constituents is these days.

Asked about Iraq, the good Senator told America that people from his home state of Kentucky "overwhelmingly" support the war:

McConnell is lying to America. Better yet, he knows he's lying, but more on that in a bit.

There have been to my knowledge two polls of Kentucky voters since the surge started, and both show that McConnell is spewing baloney. The first poll, done by the Courier-Journal, found that a majority -- 52% -- thought McConnell should oppose the surge. Only 40% said he should back it.

Now on to the second poll, done in April. Yep -- it found that an overwhelming 64% of Kentuckians favored pulling out by the middle of next year. Only 36% favored the surge, while 59% opposed it. And more respondents (39%) said McConnell didn't represent their views on Iraq than said he did (34%). This was admittedly a Dem poll, but since it's in line with the earlier indy one, it'll do.

Ah, and here's the most fun part of all: McConnell actually knows he's lying. He's on record actually commenting on the results of the first poll, so he knows full well that it found the opposite of what he told America this morning.

Gotta wonder. If you were a Kentuckian watching your Senator lie in your face about your sentiments on Iraq -- making it very clear that he values the President's legacy far more than the wishes of constituents like you -- would it make you more or less likely to support him for reelection in 2008?

An interesting new poll number from Rasmussen: "The frontrunners for the Democratic Presidential nomination are a woman and an African-American male, but 46% of American voters say it is likely that Democrats will end up nominating a white male in 2008. That figure is down from 60% in January."

Intriguing footnote: Among Democrats, many more (53%) think a white male will take their nomination. Only 40% think that's not very likely.

Clinton, Edwards Overheard Talking About Excluding Candidates From Debates
A microphone caught John Edwards and Hillary Clinton after the NAACP forum in Detroit yesterday proposing to exclude lesser-known candidates from the debates with Clinton saying, "We've got to cut the number ... They're not serious." Dennis Kucinich, who can be seen walking up to Clinton a moment later, released a statement saying "Imperial candidates are as repugnant to the American people and to our Democracy as an imperial President."

Dems Beating Republicans In Online Donations
The New York Times has a review of online donations up, showing that the top three Democrats have outdone the top three Republicans by a 2-1 margin in an area of fundraising made up largely of small donors. Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards have taken in $28 million online for the first two quarters, while Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain have only taken in $14 million. And as for Rudy Giuliani, he has taken in a mere $1.3 million online — positively indicating a lack of small-donor support.

McCain To Base Campaign On Iraq In Speech Today
John McCain will return to New Hampshire today for a policy speech on Iraq — despite the war's current unpopularity with the public at large and also in New Hampshire — an issue that he will say defines the election. "In November, 2008, the American people will decide with their votes how and where this war will be fought or if it will be fought at all," McCain will say.

Edwards Launches Poverty Tour In The Mold Of RFK
John Edwards begins three-day, eight-state anti-poverty tour today, reminiscent of the Robert F. Kennedy's 1968 trip that also ended in Appalachia. It will begin in New Orleans, the same place Edwards declared his candidacy. "I think the best measure is not a poll," Edwards said of the country's attitudes about poverty, "but the way Americans responded when a hurricane hit New Orleans. They made contributions. They volunteered."

Dennehy To Once Again Serve As McCain's National Political Director
Michael Dennehy, who was planning to move to Concord, New Hampshire, after stepping down as John McCain's national political director, will instead return to his old job at the headquarters in the Washington area, after his replacement resigned amid a flurry of restructuring this week.

Hillary, Romney Lead In Iowa Legislative Endorsements — But Vast Majority Are Undecided
The Des Moines Register reports that Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney lead the presidential field in endorsements from Iowa state legislators. However, their tallies are each a fairly small 14 supporters each — two-thirds of the lawmakers are staying on the fence for now, waiting to see how the campaign develops before making their endorsements.

NRCC Has $4 Million Debt
The National Republican Campaign Committee is taking longer than it hoped to pay down $15 million in debt from the 2006 elections, with $4 million remaining today. The committee has been outpaced by its Democratic counterpart, which also started with less debt. "It doesn't affect what we're trying to do today," Chairman Tom Cole (R-OK) said. "What really matters is where we're at next year. … We run a very lean operation."

Hillary Asks Supporters To Create Debate Introduction
Hillary Clinton's campaign has asked supporters to create 30-second videos describing the candidate and submit them to the campaign for possible screening as her introduction to the YouTube/CNN debate coming July 23. "My job in the campaign is to make the videos and the ads, and I have a great team of really creative people helping me," Media Advisor Mandy Grunwald said in an e-mail to supporters. "But when we sat down to figure out what our 30-second video for the debate should be, we decided pretty quickly to give you the assignment instead

Nixon Aide Wanted To Recruit John Kerry To The GOP
In a newly released set of documents from the Nixon library, it has been revealed that Nixon aide Murray Chotiner wanted to deal with John Kerry's anti-war activism in a novel way: Have the GOP recruit Kerry to run for office as a Republican. Chotiner cited Kerry's upper-crust background, Yale attendance, and remarks that he would have voted for Nixon in 1968 if he had actually voted — Kerry didn't vote in the 1968 election. "I experimented with a number of things in college. Being a Republican wasn't one of them," Kerry told the Washington Post. "Besides, going to Yale doesn't make you a Republican. Going to Bob Jones University makes you a Republican."

Finally, here it is on the front page of The New York Times:

Bush Distorts Qaeda Links, Critics Assert

By MICHAEL R. GORDON and JIM RUTENBERG

BAGHDAD, July 12 — In rebuffing calls to bring troops home from Iraq, President Bush on Thursday employed a stark and ominous defense. “The same folks that are bombing innocent people in Iraq,” he said, “were the ones who attacked us in America on September the 11th, and that’s why what happens in Iraq matters to the security here at home.”

It is an argument Mr. Bush has been making with frequency in the past few months, as the challenges to the continuation of the war have grown. On Thursday alone, he referred at least 30 times to Al Qaeda or its presence in Iraq.

But his references to Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, and his assertions that it is the same group that attacked the United States in 2001, have greatly oversimplified the nature of the insurgency in Iraq and its relationship with the Qaeda leadership.

There is no question that the group is one of the most dangerous in Iraq. But Mr. Bush’s critics argue that he has overstated the Qaeda connection in an attempt to exploit the same kinds of post-Sept. 11 emotions that helped him win support for the invasion in the first place.

Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia did not exist before the Sept. 11 attacks. The Sunni group thrived as a magnet for recruiting and a force for violence largely because of the American invasion of Iraq in 2003, which brought an American occupying force of more than 100,000 troops to the heart of the Middle East, and led to a Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad.

No need for the "critics assert" in the headline -- that Bush is distorting the Al Qaeda links is a matter of fact, not critics' opinions -- but still, this is very interesting, and here's why. Here you have an example of how a bunch of dirty yelling bloggers, and a few responsive reporters, may be helping to change the storyline from wrong to right, from official lies to something approaching the truth.

Recall that back in June bloggers such as Glenn Greenwald started badgering the media -- including Michael Gordon of The Times -- to stop echoing Bush's dissembling on Al Qaeda in Iraq.

Perhaps hearing the dirty yelling bloggers, Jonathan Landay of McClatchy and then Times public editor Clark Hoyt picked up this theme, with Hoyt chastising his own paper for credulously swallowing White House lies.

And now there it is on the front page of The Times, under Gordon's own byline, meaning it'll be in the heads of every news editor in the country. Of course, whether said news editors will retain it when they get hit by the next roar of White House propaganda is another story. Be interesting to see what sort of long-term impact this has.

Dem Senator Ben Nelson Likely To Vote No On Reed-Levin Amendment For Withdrawal

Staffers for Democratic Senator Ben Nelson (D-NE) tell Election Central that their boss is "undecided" how to vote for the Levin-Reed amendment ending the U.S. combat mission in Iraq by April 30, 2008. But by all appearances, Nelson is likely to vote against the measure, meaning Dems will have to peel off 11 GOP Senators in order to pass it.

That's not because Nelson disagrees with Carl Levin or Jack Reed; he just doesn't think there should be a "hard date" for troop redeployment. Next week, Nelson and Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) will introduce an amendment looking something like Levin-Reed. Their measure would change the mission in Iraq to counter-terrorism, force protection, and training Iraqi security forces. Unlike Levin-Reed, Nelson-Collins doesn't mandate troop withdrawals, nor does it set a firm deadline for ending combat missions. Staffers say "the hard date for redeployment" on Levin-Reed is what's keeping Nelson undecided, and likely to send the Dems hunting for yet another GOP vote. — Spencer Ackerman

McCain Campaign Almost Broke And Losing Staffers

John McCain's financial woes are proving to be worse and worse as more information comes out. Sources have told CNN that after the campaign's $1.75 million in debts are taken into account, the candidate only has a meager net $250,000 cash on hand. It is not clear just how much of that must be paid soon, and how much can be paid later and free up some remainder of his gross $2 million cash on hand. Meanwhile, McCain's Iowa campaign has lost two top aides, Ed Failor, Jr., and Karen Slifka, who had been staying with the cash-strapped campaign as volunteers but have now both cited discomfort with the organizational changes.

House Passes Iraq Withdrawal Bill — Only Four Republicans Defect

The House just passed a bill sponsored by Dem Rep. Ike Skelton that would force redeployment of U.S. troops to begin within 120 days and complete redeployment by April 1, 2008. While the vote was good news for Dems in that it garnered more supporters than previous measures — it passed 223-201 — an astonishingly low number of four Republicans defected to support it. It's unclear whether a similar measure will be taken up by the Senate. --gs

DCCC Announces 10-to-1 Cash Advantage Over GOP

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced this afternoon that it has raised $17 million in the second quarter. That leaves it with $19.5 million cash on hand, and about 10 times the National Republican Congressional Committee's $2 million.

Obama Is Star Among Dems At NAACP Forum

Democratic presidential candidates spoke today at the NAACP convention in Detroit and Barack Obama was seen as the standout leader of the pack. "We know we have more work to do when Scooter Libby gets no prison time and a 21-year-old honor student, who hadn't even committed a felony, gets 10 years in prison," Obama said, referring to the case of a Georgia man imprisoned for consensual oral sex when he was in high school, a case highlighted by Rev. Al Sharpton among others. Chris Dodd had a clever sarcastic remark, in light of his speaking slot: "I'd like to thank the NAACP for letting me follow Barack Obama."

Giuliani Quarrels With Attendee Of New Hampshire Town Hall

The Observer reports that at a town hall in New Hampshire, Rudy Giuliani got into a testy exchange with a man who said that New York City was a "sanctuary city" for illegal aliens during Giuliani's administration. "Here are the three areas that you have distorted into this view that I gave sanctuary to illegal immigrants," Rudy began bluntly, then detailing what his policies were when he was mayor. "That's why you are wrong," he added.

Poll: Bloomberg Better Liked By New Yorkers Than Rudy

A new WNBC/Marist poll finds New York City residents deem Mike Bloomberg a better mayor than Rudy Giuliani was, and it's by a pretty solid 52%-39% margin, too. The only ethnic group in which Rudy tops Bloomberg is Latinos, who favor Rudy by a 60%-35% margin. However, only 36% of New Yorkers want Bloomberg to run for president, compared to 54% who say he should not. And in a three-way race with Hillary Clinton, the city's Democratic inclination still prevails: Hillary 49%, Rudy 22%, Bloomberg 21%.

Poll: Romney, Obama Most Religious

Hillary Clinton is viewed as the least religious of the leading Democratic presidential candidates. About a quarter of respondents to a new poll report they know Clinton is "not religious" while only 15 percent consider her to be "strongly religious," compared with 22 percent for John Edwards and 24 percent for Barack Obama. On the Republican side, Romney tops the list with 26 percent considering him "strongly religious."

Tancredo Lone Republican At NAACP Convention

Tom Tancredo stood among a raft of empty podiums at the NAACP convention today as the only Republican candidate to show up for a forum there. "Do you think we should wait a few minutes to see if these other guys show up?" Tancredo said. "Do they know something that I don’t know?" He got a standing ovation after answering the same five questions as the eight Democratic candidates that attended in a separate session, though the Detroit Free Press wrote that this had nothing to do with his policies and solely his attendance.

New Romney Radio Ad

Mitt Romney's campaign is out with yet more advertising, this time a radio spot featuring his wife Ann praising their five boys. Actually, she complains a bit too: "Sometimes, I'd be home with those five boys, and it was rough. They were, they were pretty crazy boys. And they were wild. He'd call home and remind me that what I was doing was much more important than what he was doing. Mitt says there's no work more important than what goes on within the four walls of the American home. And that's the way it was in our home."

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced this afternoon that it has raised $17 million in the second quarter. That leaves it with $19.5 million cash on hand, and about 10 times the National Republican Congressional Committee's $2 million.

As we reported earlier today, a religious and political milestone of sorts took place early today when a Hindu delivered the morning invocation in the Senate chamber — only to find the ceremony disrupted by three activists from the Christian Right anti-abortion group Operation Save America.

Well, Election Central has just gotten off the phone with the group's chief, Rev. Flip Benham. And he's hailing the move by the three activists -- while slamming the Hindu's appearance as "gross idolatry."

In the interview, Benham praised the three activists, Ante and Katherine Pavkovic and their daughter Kristen. And he scorned the idea of the Hindu invocation.

"What we have here is just a wonderful example of Christian theology becoming biography in the sacred chamber of the United States Senate, as a Hindu was offering up a prayer to open up the session this morning. And the folks that were there [the Pavkovics] ... waited for the Senate, or a Senator with a backbone, to remind the Hindu that there is one God who made this country great, and his name is Jesus."

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One Democrat who'll probably be voting against the Levin-Reed amendment to end the U.S. combat mission by April 30, 2008 is Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE). But that's not because Nelson disagrees with Carl Levin or Jack Reed: he just doesn't think there should be a "hard date" for troop redeployment. Still, Nelson's likely opposition will require Levin-Reed to peel off at least 11 GOPers if it's to survive a Republican filibuster.

Next week, Nelson and Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) will introduce an amendment looking something like Levin-Reed. Their measure would change the mission in Iraq to counterterrorism, force protection, and training Iraqi security forces. Unlike Levin-Reed, Nelson-Collins doesn't mandate troop withdrawals, nor does it set a firm deadline for ending combat missions. It would, however, start "reassigning (troops) immediately," according to Nelson spokesman David Martino, whereas Levin-Reed waits 120 days after passage to end combat.

Martino says that Nelson is "undecided" about whether to vote for or against Levin-Reed, given that he clearly favors his own amendment. "The reason is there's a hard date for redeployment in the Reed-Levin proposal," he says. Maybe Nelson's calculation will change, depending on how the politics of both amendments shakes out, but as it stands now, he's most likely against Levin-Reed.

Here's one wavering GOP Senator who won't be wavering so much next week while voting on whether to withdraw from Iraq: Pete Domenici.

Courtney Sanders, a spokesperson for Domenici, just confirmed to me that next week the Senator would vote against the Reed-Levin amendment forcing withdrawal from Iraq.

Sanders emailed me the following:

"Senator Domenici does not support an immediate withdrawal from Iraq, nor does he support a date certain drawdown of U.S. troops in Iraq. He will vote against any amendment that calls for such measures, including the one being offered by Sens. Levin and Reed, which would mandate that withdrawal of U.S. forces begin within 120 days."

The amendment, by Dem Senators Jack Reed and Carl Levin, would force troop withdrawal to begin within 120 days, to be completed by April of 2008.

Domenici is one of around half a dozen Republican Senators who have been described as "wavering" in their support of the President because they have voiced doubts about his Iraq policies. Here at Election Central, we are calling up the offices of all these waverers to see if they will still be wavering when it comes time to actually vote on withdrawal, which begins next week with Reed-Levin.

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In yet another milestone involving Bush's ever-plummeting poll numbers, a new survey finds that his approval rating has dropped to a tie with Nixon's during the height of Watergate.

The new Harris Interactive poll finds Bush at 26%, the lowest in the survey. That number is the same as Harris numbers taken regarding Richard Nixon in March, June and August of 1974. Jimmy Carter had the lowest approval in Harris's 50 some years of polling with 22 percent in July 1980.

More dismal numbers from the survey after the jump.

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Today was a historic first for religion in America's civic life: For the very first time, a Hindu delivered the morning invocation in the Senate chamber — only to find the ceremony disrupted by three Christian right activists.

We have video of the astonishing scene, and we'll be sharing it with you shortly.

The three protesters, who all belong to the Christian Right anti-abortion group Operation Save America, and who apparently traveled to Washington all the way from North Carolina, interrupted by loudly asking for God's forgiveness for allowing the false prayer of a Hindu in the Senate chamber.

"Lord Jesus, forgive us father for allowing a prayer of the wicked, which is an abomination in your sight," the first protester began.

"This is an abomination," he continued. "We shall have no other gods before You."

More after the jump.

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The journalistic titans who run The New York Times don't give a damn what I think. But I'm going to tell them this anyway: You guys are badly botching your coverage of John Edwards, in a way that raises the question of whether the paper has ceased even pretending to try to cover his campaign fairly.

Case in point: Reporter Leslie Wayne's latest on Edwards. Wayne, you may recall, was the author of that enormous front page piece asserting as outright fact that Edwards' primary motive for creating a poverty nonprofit was political, even though the evidence of this was entirely circumstantial.

Well, now Wayne is at it again. In a piece called "Edwards Talks Tough on Hedge Funds" -- vacuous snark alert! -- Wayne reports on Edwards' new criticism of the low tax rate that hedge fund managers pay. The article contains this astonishing passage:

Mr. Edwards has made poverty his signature issue, a topic that stands in sharp contrast to his own $30 million net worth and which set him up for ridicule when it became public that he had paid $400 for a haircut.

Memo to Times editors: This passage is not factual reporting. It's the reporter's opinion. It is not an observation that Edwards' image has been hurt. This reporter is stating outright that she believes that being rich "stands in sharp contrast" to advocating on behalf of anti-poverty policies. Does this reporter believe that this is true of all private sector rich folks who engage in charity? Either way, someone who believes this shouldn't be covering John Edwards. Unless, of course, the paper no longer feels obliged to cover Edwards fairly, which may be the case.

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Uh, oh -- still more trouble for Mitt Romney. The Massachusetts Democratic Party has just released a thorough montage of video clips showing Mitt Romney repeatedly disavowing his ties to the GOP while running for Massuchetts governor in 2002. Take a look:

GOP primary voters will like this one. A transcript of Romney's choicest quotes after the jump.

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A new WNBC/Marist poll (no link available yet) finds New York City residents deem Mike Bloomberg a better mayor than Rudy Giuliani was, and it's by a pretty solid margin, too:

Who do you think has been the better mayor for New York City?

	Bloomberg	Giuliani
All	52%	39%
Democrats	60%	34%
Republicans	41%	50%
Independents	33%	56%

The only ethnic group in which Rudy tops Bloomberg is Latinos, who favor Rudy by a 60%-35% margin.

However, only 36% of New Yorkers want Bloomberg to run for president, compared to 54% who say he should not. And in a three-way race with Hillary Clinton, the city's Democratic inclination still prevails: Hillary 49%, Rudy 22%, Bloomerg 21%.

This is getting a bit strange:

RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) - A suspicious package addressed to Democrat John Edwards forced the evacuation of his campaign headquarters this morning. That's the third time that authorities have responded to letters mailed to the presidential candidate.

Captain Bob Overton of the Chapel Hill Police Department says authorities are investigating the contents of the package.

Postal employees in Chapel Hill intercepted another suspicious package in May after finding that the letter contained a powdery substance. Edwards staffers also evacuated their office in Chapel Hill in March after an employee opened a package that contained a powdery substance.

What's to hate about Edwards? Weird.

I hear Edwards staffers are all sitting across the street from campaign HQ, trying to stay connected to the rest of the universe by...cell phone. Condolences, guys.

“This progress report is like the guy who’s falling from a 100-story building and says half-way down that ‘everything’s fine.’"

-- Joe Biden, in a statement just sent out by his office slamming the White House's report today saying that some progress had been made in Iraq. Full statement after the jump.

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Barack Obama just issued this statement reacting to the interim report out today from the White House, which claimed that the results of the surge in Iraq have been mixed, with progress on some fronts:

"Does this White House think that we don't know how to turn on our televisions? Don't tell us we're making progress in Iraq when the last three months have been some of the deadliest since this war began for our brave troops who have sacrificed so much. And don't tell us it's progress when the Iraqi leadership has done nothing – nothing – to take the political steps necessary to end their civil war. This war has only fueled the terrorist threat whose strength is now at pre-9/11 levels. It should never have been authorized, never have been waged, and it must end now.”

Note the "never have been authorized" line, which slips in a subtle attack on Obama's chief primary rivals, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, who both voted to authorize the war.

It's official: President Bush will veto any and all measures put forth by Congressional Dems to halt the Iraq War, according to a little-noticed letter from the White House to Carl Levin (D-MI), chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

The letter also says that the White House will veto any measure that would tie its hands on Iran -- including on military action inside that country.

That Bush will veto any such measures was expected, and isn't surprising. Nonetheless, the letter makes it official that Congressional Dems face the daunting prospect of having to muster a veto-proof majority on any Iraq or Iran measures. The little-noticed letter can be read right here.

The Iran section of the letter is particularly interesting. It says the White House will veto any Congressional effort to either "direct or prohibit" any military, intelligence or diplomatic action regarding Iran. While the emphasis is clearly on possible restrictions to the president's ability to go after the Iranians, the most prominent amendment on Iran is Sen. Joe Lieberman's (ID-CT) successful effort to get the Senate to "confront" Iran for alleged attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. It'll be interesting to see if that effort, which passed the Senate yesterday on a 97-0 vote, spurs Bush's veto pen.

Text of the veto threats after the jump.

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Louisiana GOPers Reportedly Trying To Cut Deal With Blanco Over Vitter
The Shreveport Times reports that top Republicans in Louisiana are trying to make a deal with Democratic Governor Kathleen Blanco to facilitate Senator David Vitter's resignation by appointing a fellow Republican. Under the proposed deal, Blanco would appoint 78-year old former GOP Governor Dave Treen, who would serve as a caretaker and not run for the remainder of the term in 2008. But some Republicans did go on the record expressing skepticism. "I can't see a scenario where Vitter is going to resign. I just don't see that," said state GOP chairman Roger Villere. "I don't see how you could package a deal [with Blanco]. What kind of deal could you make that you know would be honored?" In 1999, Vitter defeated none other than Treen himself in a special election for the House, by a margin of 51%-49%.

Obama Launches Book Club, Assigns His Memoir
Barack Obama has taken a page from friend Oprah Winfrey and launched a book club online and in dozens of New Hampshire towns. The move is not only about book discussion but also Obama discussion, as the first topic will be his own memoir Dreams from My Father. "We're doing this because people don't really know him very well," said one discussion leader in Portsmouth. "You get to know him in this book."

Rudy's Security Arrangement Possibly Illegal
The Boston Globe reports that Rudy Giuliani's campaign did not report any security expenses during the first quarter — despite the prominent security detail. In fact, the detail was supplied by his corporate consulting firm, Giuliani Partners, up until June 18 when the campaign finally started paying its own security costs. The Globe suggests that this may have constituted an unaccounted for, illegal in-kind contribution from Giuliani's company.

Judicial Nomination Battles Ahead
Sen. Arlen Specter, the Judiciary Committee's ranking member, accused Democratic leaders in a private meeting yesterday of breaking a promise over the nomination of Leslie Southwick to the 5th Circuit. Specter told Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), who allegedly said the nomination had no chance last week, and chairman Patrick Leahy (D-VT) that he was ready for a fight.

GOPer Mark Souder Undecided On Dems' Iraq Withdrawal
In a sign of further political losses for the White House, Congressional Quarterly reports that die-hard conservative Congressman Mark Souder (R-IN) is now undecided on HR 2956, a Democratic Iraq withdrawal plan that will be on the House floor today.

Final New York Congressional Holdout Endorses Hillary
Freshman Congresswoman Yvette Clarke (D-NY) has endorsed Hillary Clinton, the last member of the state's Democratic Congressional delegation to do so. Clarke had previously been sitting on the sidelines due to the role played by Howard Wolfson, a top Hillary adviser, in helping out her primary opponent David Yassky last year.

Huckabee Wants Close Third In Ames Straw Poll
Mike Huckabee is pinning his campaign's future on a strong finish in the Ames, Iowa straw poll next month, where he hopes to rack up a close third place finish. The Republican said his campaign topped its first quarter haul of $540,000 last quarter. "We've got enough money to go through the straw poll, to get through that next major milestone for us," Huckabee said. "We've never said we have to win the straw poll in order to be considered credible. We've got to do well."

Brownback To Campaign With Terri Schiavo's Brother
Sam Brownback will be embarking on a series of appearances in Iowa this weekend entitled the "Pro-Life, Whole-Life Tour," in which he will be accompanied by pro-life activist Bobby Schindler, brother of the late Terri Schiavo. Schindler has been a staunch critic of Mitt Romney, ever since Romney said it was improper for Congress to have attempted to adjudicate the Schiavo case.

McCain Phone Call Violates Ethics Rules And Perhaps Law
At the height of the spate of bad news surrounding John McCain on Tuesday, the senator placed a cell phone call from the Republican cloakroom to his top fundraisers, asking them to continue their support and advocacy despite the fact he had just accepted the resignation of his top two campaign managers. The call, of course, violated ethics rules because he was inside a Senate facility and if he asked for contributions, he would have violated federal law as well. McCain pressed an investigation of former Vice President Al Gore for the same charges.

Huckabee: Michael Moore Makes Health Care Costs High (He's Fat)
Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee said yesterday that Michael Moore is an example of "why the health care system costs more in this country," a veiled reference to the controversial director's weight. Huckabee was once obese himself of course, losing 110 pounds and becoming a health advocate after a diagnosis of adult-onset diabetes. "Looks like Mike Huckabee is auditioning for some insurance company dough, since he’s raised just about no money and sparked zero interest since jumping into the race," the producer of Moore's new documentary said. "I wonder what the good Governor would say to the French, who drink more, smoke more, eat more cheese and still live longer than us despite paying less for health care?"

Lady Bird Johnson, 1912-2007
Claudia "Lady Bird" Johnson, former First Lady of the United States, has died at age 94. Mrs. Johnson was perhaps best known publicly for her work on environmental conservation and beautification during the administration of her husband, President Lyndon Baines Johnson. Behind the scenes, she was a steady source of support for her husband from the beginnings of his political career to the highs of 1964, and the lows of the Vietnam War. Despite numerous health problems, Lady Bird Johnson maintained an active, civically involved lifestyle even into her very late years.

Edwards Wins MoveOn Online Vote On Global Warming
John Edwards topped a MoveOn.org straw poll for the most popular platform to combat climate change as presented in a "virtual town hall" of candidates talking in online video clips. MoveOn reports that 100,000 people participated in 1,300 house parties.

Human Rights Campaign Twice Claims A "First-Ever" Milestone
Courtesy of Andrew Sullivan and the Citizen Crain blog, the "first-ever" gay-centered presidential debate being hosted by the Human Rights Campaign might not be such a "first-ever" event. The HRC in fact held a similar Democratic debate in 2003. This doesn't seem to be stopping them from claiming this year's event as a "first-ever," though.

Edwards Advocates Higher Hedge Fund Taxes Despite Professional Experience
As the Senate Finance Committee held hearings on higher taxes for hedge fund operators that move their holdings public, John Edwards endorsed the plan. "You want to know what I mean by Two Americas?" he said in a statement. "A tax code that lets hedge fund and private equity managers making hundreds of millions a year pay taxes at a lower rate than their secretaries is wrong." Edwards is the only candidate to have worked for a hedge fund.

Former Colorado Rep Beauprez Endorses Romney
Bob Beauprez, a former representative from Colorado and the Republican nominee for governor last year, has endorsed Mitt Romney. "To change Washington, we need to elect a President who can take Washington apart and put it back together," Beauprez said. Before his first election to Congress in 2002, Beauprez also served as the state GOP chairman.

In New York, GOP House Challenger Takes In $333k
Former New York Republican chairman Alexander "Sandy" Treadwell took in $333,000 in donations in the last quarter, for his campaign against freshman Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand (D), who defeated a GOP incumbent last year. The Hotline says Treadwell's amount is thus far largest take of a GOP challenger for the House this cycle. For her part, Gillibrand took in $667,000, roughly twice Treadwell's amounts, for what may be a close re-election contest next year.

Dem Poll: Elizabeth Dole Potentially Vulnerable
A new poll from Democratic polling firm Public Policy Polling shows Senator Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) ahead of potential challengers in 2008, but nevertheless potentially vulnerable. Dole has an approval rating of 46% and a disapproval of 40% — likely dragged down by President Bush's 35%-61% rating in the state. Dole has a lead over three Democratic candidates tested in the poll, but is under 50% in all three instances. Dole has a lead of 43%-37% over Grier Martin, a Democratic state legislator and veteran of Afghanistan who is considering a bid, and tops the other two tested potential opponents by wider margins.

Poll: In Kentucky, Beshear Only Slightly Ahead
A new poll by InsiderAdvantage has Democratic candidate Steve Beshear leading Governor Ernie Fletcher (R-KY) by a 41%-38% margin, a lot closer than other polls that have shown Beshear much further ahead. However, this poll also has a higher undecided rate, and the incumbent Fletcher is still under 40% — when an incumbent is usually supposed to stay above 50%.

Edwards, Giuliani Both Want To Visit Iraq, But Having Trouble Arranging It
The Observer reports that John Edwards and Rudy Giuliani wish they could boost their foreign-policy profiles by visiting the war-torn nation of Iraq, but it is proving exceedingly difficult without access to a Congressional delegation. "I don’t think that anyone running for president should be judged on whether they have been to Iraq or not," said Mark Corallo, a spokesman for Fred Thompson, who has also never been to Iraq. "I’m sure it’s not entirely insurmountable. I’m sure the government would help out if you paid your own way. But logistically, it’s not an easy thing."

The International Association of Firefighters -- a group that's long tried to tarnish Rudy's 9/11 halo by poking holes in his alleged heroism that day -- has just released a long and hard-hitting video laying out the case against Rudy in vivid and emotional detail.

The video gives rise to a question, one that's at the center of the Rudy candidacy: Is there anything -- anything at all -- that will get people to squint a bit harder to see the real Rudy behind the haze of 9/11 mythology?

The vid, of course, is an effort to get people to do just that.

A few thoughts on the vid after the jump.

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Just in from CNN:

"Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson is now likely to announce his presidential campaign in August, not mid-July as previously envisioned and will skip the Republican straw poll in Ames, Iowa, people familiar with Thompson’s thinking tell CNN."

Oh, boy -- we've got a live one here. From The Hill:

Rep. Heather Wilson (R-N.M.) called for comity Wednesday during a meeting of the Republican Conference after House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) referred to Senate colleagues who have begun to favor a change in course in Iraq as “wimps.”...

According to sources, Boehner and Minority Whip Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) were urging solidarity among House Republicans, explaining that they must distinguish themselves from their Senate colleagues.

So, so silly. But Boehner's spokesman isn't denying the comment:

“The leader’s comments were intended to illustrate the fact that we just recently voted to give the troops our full support -- including ample time for the Petraeus plan to work -- and that too much is at stake for Congress to renege on its commitment now by approving what can only be described as another partisan stunt by Democrats,” Boehner spokesman Brian Kennedy said.

Judging by that response, it looks as if The Hill got the context more or less right here.

Soooo...look, to reiterate what Matthew Yglesias and Atrios have said, it isn't courageous to advocate that others fight and die for something. Nor is advocating that others (the troops) get withdrawn from Iraq synonymous with personally wimping out in any way, particularly since advocating such requires doing so in the face of a relentless barrage of you're-abandoning-the-troops propaganda. It doesn't make you "on the run" from anything, as Joe Lieberman has been trying to argue.

This is so ludicrously obvious that it's just amazing that it needs to be restated, but there you have it.

Meanwhile, in reference to the Boehner flack's demand that people give the surge "ample time to succeed" right now, I guess we're going to have to point this out again. Six months ago, Boehner said this about the surge:

"I think it'll be rather clear in the next sixty to ninety days as to whether this plan's going to work."

If we have to, we'll just keep on repeating it, again and again and again. Oh, well.

Sure enough, President Bush's stated demand yesterday for the Senate to wait for General David Petraeus's September Iraq report before taking action on the war is exactly what Senate Republicans up for reelection don't want to hear. According to a just-released AP story, nervous Republicans told national security adviser Steve Hadley today that they need Bush to move toward embracing the Iraq Study Group's recommendations about ending the U.S. combat mission in Iraq -- not in September, but now:

Republican support for the war has steadily eroded in recent weeks as the White House prepared an interim progress report that found that the U.S.-backed government in Baghdad has made little progress in meeting major targets of reform.

Of the GOP lawmakers who say the U.S. should reduce its military role in Iraq, nearly all are up for re-election in 2008.

"I'm hopeful they (the White House) change their minds," said Sen. Pete Domenici, R-N.M.

Domenici and at least five other Republicans support a bill by Sen. Ken Salazar, D-Colo., that would adopt as U.S. policy the recommendations of the Iraq Study Group Report.

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As you probably know already, the question of just how long Hillary Clinton desired the Presidency has received an an enormous amount of scrutiny, with bizarre allegations swirling that she planned it as far back as Bill's first election in 1992.

But one question you hear asked a lot less is, What about Barack Obama's Presidential ambitions? When did he first dream of inhabiting the Oval Office?

The importance of the question is often overstated -- what Presidential candidate isn't ambitious? -- but it's a fair question, if only because it's historically interesting and sheds light on a person's character. And in Obama's case, the answers have conflicted.

Obama said in a recent interview that he didn't harbor any Presidential ambitions early on. But that conflicts with some things that are out there on the public record.

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This is a milestone: For the first time, a poll has found that more people consider the Iraq War a mistake than ever thought the same of the Vietnam War during our engagement there.

This week's Gallup poll found that 62% answered in the affirmative when asked the following question:

In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to Iraq, do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, or not?

That 62% tops 60% for the first time and is a record high in Gallup polling:

Meanwhile, according to Gallup, the number who viewed Vietnam as a mistake peaked at 61% in May of 1971:

It's worth noting, however, that the percentage of those who thought Vietnam a mistake climbed even higher after the war ended.

Meanwhile, in other interesting numbers, Gallup finds that a majority 51 percent think the Bush Administration's troop surge strategy has had no effect, while 25 percent say it is making things worse. And while 55 percent think Congress should wait until September to pass a new Iraq policy, a vast majority, 71 percent, still favor a near complete withdrawal by April.

With more and more Republicans defecting from Bush's Iraq policies, a new poll from Rasmussen dramatically illustrates the mounting pressure facing supporters of the "surge."

A new Rasmussen poll finds that less than one in five -- or 19% -- believe that the "surge" has been a success, while 43% deem it a "failure." Less than one in four -- or 24% -- say it's too soon to tell. The remaining 15% aren't sure.

While a large number of voters are either unsure or still reserving judgment, less than one in five is an abysmally low number, and a large plurality -- 43% -- agree with the Dem leadership that the surge has failed. Not coincidentally, Rasmussen currently pegs Bush's approval ratings at 33%, tying his all-time low.

As anticipated, Sen. Jim Webb's troop-readiness amendment just failed to overcome a GOP filibuster, garnering 56 votes, just four shy of the needed 60. But Webb did manage to peel off seven GOP votes:

Chuck Hagel (co-sponsor) Olympia Snowe Susan Collins Gordon Smith John Sununu John Warner Norm Coleman

That Warner and Sununu especially joined the Democrats will certainly give the White House pause in advance of the next round of Iraq amendments.

Senator Joe Lieberman voted to continue the filibuster, as did GOP Iraq-critics George Voinovich and Richard Lugar.

So what's next? Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV), the Senate majority leader, previewed the Dem counterattack in his introduction to the vote. "If the Republicans oppose troop readiness, they're entitled to vote against it," he said. "But to block this amendment, to not even give it an up or down vote, shows that some of my Republican colleagues would rather protect the president than protect the troops."

Get ready to hear Webb amplify that.

Update: Bad math skills! This post originally neglected to note Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN), who also voted with the Dems for cloture. I regret the error.

Just in from CNN:

WASHINGTON (CNN) — Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe of Maine will co-sponsor a Democratic troop-withdrawal amendment that would bring U.S. troops home from Iraq by April 30, 2008, CNN learned from an aide Wednesday.

The senator from Maine became the second Republican to sign on as sponsor of the proposal by Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin, D-Michigan, and Sen. Jack Reed, D-Rhode Island, that calls for a withdrawal to begin within 120 days of the bill’s passage. Gordon Smith, R-Oregon, also backs the measure.

A vote is expected on the bill later this week or early next. By our count, if as expected all Dems minus Joe Lieberman support it, the measure would need eight more Republicans to reach the magic number of 60.

Meanwhile, voting is proceeding on Senator Jim Webb's troop readiness amendment as we speak.

Update: Think Progress has video of Dana Bash commenting, and Atrios weighs in here.

This morning, you're about to see round one in the fight that Sen. Jim Webb has been spoiling for -- and, to some extent, was elected to the Senate to pursue. Should his Iraq amendment fail today, Webb, a combat veteran and Reagan-era defense official, will pose a blunt question to his GOP colleagues: Why aren't you supporting the troops?

Webb's (D-VA) amendment to the defense authorization bill is coming up for a vote at 11:30 A.M. today. It's the first of many showdowns between Senate Dems and the dwindling band of GOP war supporters set for coming days.

Webb staffers think that the GOP will probably succeed in filibustering the proposal -- which would ensure that troops have at least as much time at home as on their deployments, something that would sharply limit troop levels in Iraq -- though they want to fight for the 60 votes necessary for passage. To say the least, it's going to be a tall order to corral Republican votes on the controversial measure.

And should the amendment go down, Webb's team has a Plan B at the ready: putting the albatross of not supporting the troops around the GOP's neck.

"If it's defeated, the alternative is to go out there and raise hell about why they are wrong to block this," says Webb spokeswoman Kimberly Hunter. "This is a pretty straight vote. It's a narrow bill. It's about supporting the troops. What it's about is what they don't want to admit they're doing, which is not supporting the troops. We'll take that back and try to resonate it."

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National Security Advisor To Visit Capitol Hill Today
Stephen Hadley, the president's National Security Advisor, will speak today with up to 20 GOP senators invited to a meeting designed to shore up support for the administration's Iraq policy. The White House is finalizing a 23-page report due to Congress tomorrow on the Iraqi government's progress in meeting benchmarks, though not one of the goals has actually been met completely.

McCain Asks Supporters Not To Abandon Ship, While Finance Chief Departs
John McCain wrote an e-mail to supporters last night telling them he would not give up in the face of new challenges for his presidential bid and asking them to stick with the campaign. McCain's campaign manager and chief strategist left the campaign yesterday after reporting last week that he has only $2 million cash on hand. "Challenges are nothing new to me. Whether political challenges, physical challenges or even personal challenges — how you stand up, face them and move forward defines your character and your strength," McCain wrote. Meanwhile, McCain's finance director, Mary Kate Johnson, has also resigned.

Obama: "No Do-Overs" On War
During a campaign stop in Iowa yesterday, Barack Obama took a shot at Democratic candidates who voted for the war but are now running for president on anti-war platforms. "Being a leader means that you'd better do what's right and leave the politics aside because there are no do-overs on an issue as important as war," Obama told the crowd. In the current field are Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and Joe Biden, who all voted to authorize the war.

McCain Laces Into Voinovich On Iraq Behind Closed Doors
John McCain criticized Sen. George Voinovich's Iraq stance in an exchange one senator called "the most serious fight that I have seen in my time in the Senate," the Politico reports. Voinovich countered that Al Qaeda wouldn't be in Iraq if the U.S. hadn't invaded.

Edwards Calls For Country Of Origin Food Labeling
John Edwards said yesterday that recent product safety issues with imported goods from China, including a massive pet food recall, mean it is time for food packages to come with labels specifying which country it comes from. The campaign said the average American eats 260 pounds of imported food annually. "Food safety is a very serious issue for America," Edwards said. "It's time, I believe, that we stop giving in to big agribusiness and food importers and stop the delay in laws that can help provide for food safety."

Transsexual Withdraws From Obama Dinner With Supporters
Jennifer Lasko, a Florida firefighter who won a contest for small-donor Barack Obama supporters to have dinner with the candidate, has pulled out from the engagement after local media reported that she had been born as John. Lasko said she did not want to draw unnecessary attention to the dinner. While the Obama campaign said they did not previously know about the sex change, they nevertheless encouraged Lasko to attend, anyway. "We would have loved to have her at the dinner with Senator Obama and the other guests," said Obama spokeswoman Jen Psaki. "We hope they have the opportunity to meet at another time." Another supporter has been invited in Lasko's place.

Moderate House Republicans Form New PAC
The remaining number of centrist Republicans in the House, seriously diminished after the 2006 elections, have formed a new fundraising arm, the Tuesday Group PAC, which raised $48,000 in May, its first month of fundraising. “It’s very important to our party that we hang on to those that represent a point of view that’s important to the party," said Rep. Ray LaHood (R-IL), a member of the group. The group's aim is to maintain the current number of House GOP centrists, and hopefully work to expand from there. Co-chairs Mark Kirk (R-IL) and Charlie Dent (R-PA) have already been targeted for defeat by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Fred Thompson In 1996: Scrap The GOP Platform
David Brody has dug up an interesting Associated Press piece on Fred Thompson, during battles in 1996 over whether the Republican platform would extend any openness to pro-choicers. Thompson proposed dumping entirely the idea of a published party platform. "I'm still not convinced platforms are a good idea. We know what we believe in and I don't think we need to write it all down in a document," Thompson said at the time. Thompson was also identified in that AP article as a pro-choice Republican, opposed to outlawing early-term abortions.

Bush Makes 13-Year-Old Girl Cry
Speaking in Cleveland yesterday, President Bush answered a question on the status of immigration reform from Jessica Hackerd, 13, with a sarcastic "Yeah, thanks," eliciting a round of laughter. As the girl's eyes started to well with tears, the president realized his gaffe and praised the question. The girl later recounted in an interview that she was upset by the attention and not the president's response, though she did hear it. An aide whisked her backstage, where she and her parents met with the president after the forum.

Louisiana Republican: Vitter Should Resign

A member of the Louisiana Republican State Central Committee is calling upon Senator David Vitter (R-LA) to resign in the wake of his implication in the D.C. Madam scandal. "He needs to resign," said Vincent Bruno, who called Vitter a hypocrite and said even more dirt would come out. "There’s more there; I know so." Bruno, a long-time Vitter foe, made public accusations during the 2004 Senate race, alleging that Vitter had an 11-month affair with a prostitute before his first election to Congress, when he was a state Representative.

Dems To Hold First-Ever Gay Debate

In a statement of how far the gay-rights movement has come, Democratic candidates will hold the first ever presidential debate devoted to LGBT issues. The debate will be held on August 9 on the gay-themed cable channel LOGO, sponsored by LOGO and the Human Rights Campaign. Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards have already confirmed that they will attend, while the organizers are waiting on the other candidates' schedulers to confirm their appearances.

Richardson Apologizes For Anti-Gay Slur En Español

Bill Richardson has apologized for using a homophobic slur about a year ago on the now-cancelled Don Imus show. In the exchange, Richardson jokingly insulted an Imus staffer named Bernard who had questioned the candidate's Latino roots. "Yo creo que Bernardo, sí — es un maricón si él piensa que yo no soy Hispano," Richardson replied. The sentence translates to: "I believe that Bernard, yes – he’s a faggot if he thinks that I am not Hispanic." Richardson did not come under any fire at the time, possibly because few of the people listening at the time understood the precise meaning of what he said.

Firefighters To Attack Rudy

The International Association of Fire Fighters, the country's largest firefighters' union, is set to release a 13-minute video attacking Rudy Giuliani. Entitled "Rudy Giuliani, Urban Legend," the video will directly take on Giuliani's reputation as the hero of 9/11, saying that his leadership role is in parts exaggerated in other ways false.

Clinton In Iowa: I Have Plan To End Iraq War

Hillary Clinton unveiled a new three-point plan to end the war in Iraq if elected president, including immediate troop withdrawals, "stabilizing Iraq, not propping up the Iraqi government," and renewed diplomacy with neighboring countries. Her speech, delivered over a podium reading "The Plan To End The War," also focused on improved care for the troops. "There are more troops in Iraq than ever and the Iraqi government is more fractured and ineffective than ever," she said. "Keeping our troops in the crossfire of sectarian violence is not the answer."

Obama In Iowa: "Our Military Is Our Most Precious Resource"

Barack Obama, who will have a group of veterans campaign for him in Iowa next week, gave a policy speech today in Iowa where he said the cost of the war was a burden to American families. The Des Moines Register saw the speech as an attempt to raise his defense credibility, which was apparently weak because of his anti-war stance. "Our military is our most precious resource," Obama said. "We can't squander that resource on the basis of ideology as opposed to strategy."

The Simpsons Live In Springfield, Vermont — At Least, Their Movie Premiere Does

After garnering more than online 15,000 votes, the town of Springfield, Vermont, population 9,500, has won the contest to host the premiere of the Simpsons movie. "After 18 years, it's good to finally welcome the Simpsons home. Vermonters love The Simpsons," Democratic Senator Patrick Leahy of Vermont said in a statement. Ted Kennedy had been urging his own supporters to vote for Springfield, Massachusetts.

DSCC Attacks 4 Senators In First 2007 Ad Buy

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is running new ads attacking four GOP senators for their votes on Iraq funding. The 30-second spots, targeting Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Susan Collins (R-ME), Norm Coleman (R-MN) and John Sununu (R-NH), ask constituents to call their senators to "ask them to do the right thing":

Oh, dear. We've just learned that Senator David Vitter's 2004 campaign ads are still on his old campaign Web site's multimedia page -- and we've captured them for your viewing pleasure.

In his ads, Vitter repeatedly uses his wife and kids as campaign props in an effort to portray himself as a solid family-values sort of fellow, a portrayal he reinforced during the campaign by defending traditional marriage against its assorted enemies. Take a look:

Vitter, of course, is Rudy Giuliani's Southern regional chair and has now confessed to a very serious "sin" for getting linked to the D.C. Madam.

It's hard to decide which moment in these ads is most interesting. In one ad, his daughter narrates the whole thing. In another, Vitter is quoted as follows against the backdrop of his kids eating breakfast:

"Bottom line: For the sake of our children, there are a lot of things I'm gonna change."

And in the third ad, Vitter says:

"In life's most important moments, we're not Repulicans or Democrats, we are parents."

Special thanks to TPMer Ben Craw for putting together the video -- and for coming up with that "prostitute patron" gag.

Here's yet another wrinkle in today's ongoing saga, Bloodbath At McCain HQ: It appears McCain's new campaign manager, Rick Davis, may be rehiring some aides who were let go in last week's bloodletting, a move seen as a bid to assert control over the campaign.

A McCain source tells me that this news was shared at a 2 P.M. staff meeting held today at campaign headquarters in Crystal City, Virginia. Last week at least 50 staffers were let go. But according to the McCain source some of those fired last week were Davis people, as opposed to allies of the two top aides who left today, Terry Nelson and John Weaver.

"Rick Davis is bringing back some people who were part of his inner circle," the source says. "It's his effort to reassert control over the campaign."

The source didn't know how many or who exactly would be rehired. And McCain's campaign didn't respond to requests for comment. Anyway, this latest twist seemed noteworthy, yet another sign of just how chaotic things are over in Camp McCain these days...

"Look what happens with televisions. At first they are really expensive and they have some flaws, but eventually they come down in price, more people can afford them, and they are of higher quality. That is how markets work."

One key point stands out from President Bush's Iraq remarks in Cleveland this afternoon: Bush didn't say a single thing that could possibly help provide any wavering GOP Senators with any political cover at a time when they're heading into a series of bruising battles with Dems over the war.

Indeed, if anything, his remarks are likely to push antsy Republicans further away.

Take a look:

Some analysis of the speech after the jump.

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Here's an interesting twist to the tale of David Vitter, who is now embroiled in a sex scandal involving his confessed frequenting of prostitutes in the D.C. Madam scandal: Vitter first got elected because his predecessor in the House resigned in the wake of a sex scandal of his own.

And that scandal involving his predecessor was created by the detective work of — yup — Larry Flynt.

This current scandal, of course, has come to light due partly to the investigate work of Flynt.

And the last politician who went down because of the intrepid pornographer was Congressman Bob Livingston (R-LA), who became Speaker-designate after the resignation of Newt Gingrich in late 1998. But before officially becoming Speaker in January of 1999, Livingston was forced to resign in disgrace — thanks to Flynt. The Hustler publisher had made a public offer for money in exchange for dirt on politicians' sex lives, in the heat of the Monica Lewinsky scandal, and the one he nailed turned out to be none other than Livingston, one of Clinton's chief detractors.

The special election to succeed Livingston was a colorful affair, featuring big names like former Governor Dave Treen and Ku Klux Klansman David Duke. And out of that tumultuous race, the final winner was ... none other than David Vitter, who went on to serve three terms in the House and ultimately won an election to the Senate in 2004, all because of a sex scandal suffered by his predecessor.

Flynt had this to say at the time, words to which Vitter may want to pay close attention: "I read where Livingston called me a bottom feeder. Sure, but look what I found at the bottom." (Business Week, January 18, 1999, via Nexis)

When Rudy Giuliani was first endorsed by Senator David Vitter (R-LA) earlier this year, it was a real coup: The support of a Southern conservative star would surely help the socially-liberal New Yorker win over social conservatives, to whom Vitter would be his main liason. But that's no longer the case, thanks to Vitter's involvement int he D.C. Madam scandal. Now Rudy is being put on the spot about Vitter, and he doesn't seem all that sure of what to say, according to MSNBC:

On Vitter, Giuliani mostly dodged and said that he hasn't talked to the senator yet. He emphasized "this is a personal issue" and highlighted that he couldn't have achieved so much in the campaign and during his years as mayor without the good character of his staffers and supporters. "But," Giuliani added, "Some people disappoint you."

What a guy. This morning, Joe Lieberman went on right-winger Bill Bennett's syndicated radio show — and in those safe conservative confines, Lieberman went out of his way to bash Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid.

In the midst of a long tirade against anti-war Senators, Lieberman brought up Reid on his own, without any sort of prompting or even any mention of Reid from Bennett. We obtained audio of the show from the members only section of Bennett's Web site. Check it out:

Here's what Lieberman said:

"You know, Harry Reid said a while ago that the war in Iraq is lost. It's wrong. It's not lost. In fact, I would say we're beginning to win it. We've turned the tide with the new strategy. And in fact, I cannot conceive of a circumstance in which American forces would lose the war in Iraq, on the ground in Iraq. If we lose it, it's gonna be lost here at home, in a different kind of war for public opinion and political support."

It's harder to know what's more remarkable here: The fact that Lieberman said that he "cannot conceive" of even the possibility that American forces might be losing the war, or the fact that Lieberman launched an unprovoked, gratuitous attack on Reid.

After all, it's all but certain that Lieberman thinks that Reid's "war is lost" comment is damaging both to Reid and to Dems in general. We think this is wrong, but there's little doubt that Lieberman thinks this, given his frequent exhortations that Dems return to what he calls their past posture of national security "strength." Yet without any prompting Lieberman brings it up anyway.

What's more, Reid has repeatedly gone out of his way to praise Lieberman, despite the tensions that exist between Lieberman and Democratic activists.

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Rick Davis, a longtime member of John McCain's inner circle, has been tapped to run McCain's campaign in the wake of the resignations of two of his top aides, two McCain sources tell the Politico's Jonathan Martin.

Davis, as it happens, managed McCain's campaign back in 2000. So it's easy to interpret his appointment today as born of a desire to return to that hallowed time -- a time when McCain was a maverick for the first time; when he was the insurgent candidate whose Straight Talk Express was revered and not ridiculed by the press; when the Iraq War was merely a gleam in Dick Cheney's eye. Nothing can turn back this clock, though.

Update: Marc Ambinder takes a look at the inside story of the resignations, and concludes that they were largely a result of a power struggle involving the role of (now former) campaign manager Terry Nelson.

Here's a statement, just sent out, from John McCain himself on the resignations this morning of top campaign advisers John Weaver and Terry Nelson:

"Today, John Weaver and Terry Nelson offered their resignations from my presidential campaign, which I accepted with regret and deep gratitude for their dedication, hard work and friendship. Terry is a consummate professional, who has ably lead this campaign through a challenging political environment. John Weaver has been my friend and trusted counselor for many years and to whom I am greatly indebted. In the days and weeks ahead this campaign will move forward, and I will continue to address the issues of greatest concern to the American people, laying out my vision for a secure and prosperous America."

It still seems curious that this news broke just as McCain delivered his back-from-Iraq speech on the Senate floor this morning.

In a conference call with reporters this morning, Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) said he doesn't see too many Republican senators ready to cross the aisle on Democratic efforts to wind down the war. But he had a message for them, and particularly for Sen. John Warner (R-VA): "walk to us" before it's too late.

With the recent high-profile defections from President Bush on Iraq, Biden believes the Republicans are in a race against time. "How late in the game can they abandon him before they lock themselves into oblivion politically?" he asked. "Some of them make the calculation that they can wait until February or March, and they'll lose their election."

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The bloodbath at McCain campaign headquarters contines this morning, with two of his top, top, top advisers, Terry Nelson and John Weaver, announcing in statements just sent out moments ago that they're stepping down.

Nelson's statement:

"This morning I informed Senator McCain that I would be resigning from his presidential campaign, effective immediately. It has been a tremendous honor to serve Senator McCain and work on his campaign. I believe John McCain is the most experienced and prepared candidate to represent the Republican Party and defeat the Democratic nominee next year."

Weaver's:

"As of today, I have resigned my position as chief strategist to John McCain's presidential campaign. It has been my honor and a distinct privilege to serve someone who has always put our country first. I believe that most Americans will come to the conclusion that I have long known there is only one person equipped to serve as our nation's chief executive and deal with the challenges we face, and that person is John McCain."

In an entertaining bit of symbolism, these statements signaling that McCain's campaign is imploding were sent out just as McCain himself is arguing in a speech on the Senate floor right now that the surge in Iraq is showing signs of success. Fitting, that.

Update: The Associated Press has this:

One official said Terry Nelson resigned as campaign manager for the Republican presidential candidate and John Weaver stepped down from his post of chief strategist on Tuesday. But another official said Nelson was fired.

Update II: Marc Ambinder takes a look at the inside story of the resignations, and concludes that they were largely a result of a power struggle involving the role of (now former) campaign manager Terry Nelson.

Okay, I'm going to offer an entry for Atrios' Friedman Unit database, which is collecting example after example of GOPers and pundits saying again and again that we need to give Bush's Iraq strategy one last shot to succeed.

So here goes. Here's House GOP leader John Boehner on the surge in January:

"I think it'll be rather clear in the next sixty to ninety days as to whether this plan's going to work."

And here's Boehner's spokesman in The Hill today:

“Democrats can’t claim to be strong on national security and repeatedly advocate retreat in the fight against terrorists at the same time,” said Brian Kennedy, spokesman for House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio). “General Petraeus just received the full reinforcements he was promised, and to condemn his plan to failure before it has ample time to succeed is not in the best interests of our troops or the security of our country.”

So, yeah, six months ago, Boehner said we needed until the spring to see if the surge would succeed. But now, three months after Boehner's own deadline, his spokesman suggests that Dems who aren't giving the surge still more time are traitors.

I've emailed Boehner's spokesman and asked why it is that Dems should be painted as anti-troops for their impatience now, when Boehner himself said we'd know three months ago whether the surge had succeeded. I'll keep you posted.

A new American Research Group poll released this morning finds that Barack Obama holds only a slight edge over Hillary in his home state of Illinois:

Obama 37%
Clinton 33%
Edwards 10%

A caveat: ARG has tended to give the most favorable results for Hillary of any pollster in many of its state primary polls.

Meanwhile, in the GOP field Rudy holds his customary lead, followed by quasi-candidate Fred Thompson in a strong second:

Giuliani 30%
F. Thompson 21%
McCain 12%
Romney 11%

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is running new ads attacking four GOP senators for their votes on Iraq funding. The 30-second spots, targeting Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Susan Collins (R-ME), Norm Coleman (R-MN) and John Sununu (R-NH), ask constituents to call their senators to "ask them to do the right thing":

The small buy, the DSCC's first in 2007, in the four states comes just as the Senate takes a critical vote today on an amendment that would require the president to begin withdrawing troops from Iraq in 120 days. The addition of McConnell, the minority leader, is a bold move considering he represents a Republican-leaning state that went to Bush by a solid margin twice. A transcript is available at the DSCC.

Gallup: Bush Approval At 29%, A New Low

The new Gallup poll shows President Bush's approval/disapproval numbers at 29%-66%, a new low for that pollster. A possible cause for the latest decline: 66% say he should not have intervened in the Libby case. And in a sign of what sort of legacy President Bush is leaving behind, 53% say the problems faced by the next president will be the result of Bush's own failures. The closest thing to a good result for the president: 36% of respondents say there is justification to begin impeachment proceedings against Bush, compared to 62% who say there is not.

Vitter Scandal — Trouble For Rudy?

David Vitter's involvement in the D.C Madam scandal could have consequences for the presidential race: It has been noted that Vitter was one of the first Southerners to endorse Rudy Giuliani's campaign, and was going to serve as Rudy's main liaison to social conservatives. But as it stands now, Vitter's admitted past involvement with prostitutes doesn't make him awfully credible at reaching out to the Christian Right on Giuliani's behalf.

Senator Snowe Considering Vote For Webb Amendment

Maine Republican Olympia Snowe is "seriously considering" voting on an amendment to the Defense Authorization bill up for a vote today that would require the president to begin withdrawing troops from Iraq in 120 days. The senator, who had previously said it would be a mistake to set timetables for withdrawal, joins a growing number of Republican senators who have broken ranks with the Bush administration.

David Brody — The Go-To Man For Christian Right Reporting

The New York Times has a profile of David Brody, a journalist who blogs on politics for Pat Robertson's Christian Brodcasting Network. Brody clearly enjoys his role in covering the GOP presidential field, all of whom have given evangelics reason for suspicion. "All three of them [McCain, Romney and Giuliani] have questions from evangelicals about who’s going to be a real conservative in the race. It plays perfectly for the Brody File," Brody said. "It’s a three-ring circus, and I’m the ringmaster."

Key Evangical Defends Thompson

Speaking of David Brody, the Brody File reports that Tony Perkins, head of the Family Research Council, is defending Fred Thompson, who has been hit with allegations denied by his campaign that he once lobied for a pro-choice group before becomming a U.S. senator. "From what I've heard people are not biting on the story," Perkins said. "He is attacked for being pro-abortion in an effort to drive a wedge between him and the base. The story looks suspect, but even if there is truth in it, his Senate record is solid on the life issue. I don't think this is going anywhere."

Thompson Reviled By Some Senate Colleagues

The Los Angeles Times has not let up on Fred Thompson yet. After publishing allegations that he lobbied for abortion-rights activists, the paper is now highlighting disagreements with his Senate colleagues during his time in office, including how he infuriated conservatives with his two biggest initiatives, hearings on fundraising and legislation on campaign finance reform. One Senator at the time was even allegedly involved in putting Thompson's face on a wanted poster.

In Montana, Some Republicans Trying To Recruit Keenan For Senate

Roll Call reports that establishment Republicans in Montana are trying to recruit former state Senate Minority Leader Bob Keenan to run for Senate against five-term Democrat Max Baucus. Though Keenan infuriated party leaders with his primary challenge to then-Senator Conrad Burns last year, he made up for it by stumping the state relentlessly for Burns in the general election, although Burns ultimately lost. One reason they may be trying to recruit Keenan: The other candidate currently in the race is state Rep. Mike Lange, who was stripped of his position as House Majority Leader after an obscenity-filled tirade against the state's Democratic governor.

Ted Kennedy Vies For Honor Of Simpsons' Springfield In Massachusetts

Senator Ted Kennedy is enlisting supporters of his PAC to vote in a USA Today contest to pick which of the 14 American cities named Springfield will host the upcoming premiere of the Simpsons movie. Kennedy, who is the main inspiration for Springfield's philandering Mayor "Diamond Joe" Quimby, is hoping to bring the animated movie to the third-largest city in his state, Springfield, Massachusetts.

Gravel Speaks To "Student Scholars For 9/11 Truth"

Mike Gravel's campaign released another video last night where he again humors some delightful students — but this time, they're members of the 9/11 Truth movement. Here he says all of his opponents for the Democratic presidential nomination have not done enough to stop the Iraq war, holding "symbolic votes" on non-binding resolutions "you could drive a Mack truck through," and instead he proposes forcing GOP senators to filibuster for 20 days and spending an entire month holding veto override votes. Gravel also told the 9/11 Truthers exactly the sort of thing they would want to hear, saying he whole-heartedly supports another investigation into the 9/11 terrorist attacks — and at that the interviewer somewhat-awkwardly gave him a hug:

Cheney Rivaling Quayle As Least Popular VP
Polls show Dick Cheney has had a recent drop in his approval ratings that bring him very close to Dan Quayle, who was the least popular vice president since the age of polling began. Cheney is now viewed disapprovingly by 59 percent of Americans, four points less than Quayle's high of 63 percent in July 1992. Meanwhile, Cheney's personal favorability is an astounding 13 percent — an all-time low. We reported last week that a majority now favor impeachment proceedings against Cheney — an intensity of loathing that not even Quayle suffered from.

Rove: Dems Won't Focus On Iraq In 2008
Karl Rove thinks Democrats will shift the focus of their election rhetoric away from Iraq in order to not constrict the policy of a Democratic president. He also thinks there is a possibility that the military may have already started a withdrawal by next year. The comments, made Sunday at the Aspen Ideas Festival, came just before the New York Times reported this morning that Rove was involved in discussions about the strategy in Iraq. White House spokesman Tony Snow said this afternoon that there was no consideration of politics in the administration's Iraq planning.

Edwards: I Will Have A Pro-Science Administration
In an interview with ScienceBlogs.com, John Edwards discussed a range of topics including energy policy, global warming, education and health care. And above all, he made this vow: "As president, I will ensure that government professionals charged with the collection and analysis of scientific data — from the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy to the EPA — are insulated from political influence. Period."

Pelosi Spokesman: Speaker Is Focused On Ending War, Not Battling Sheehan
A spokesman for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said she is not concerned about an independent challenge from antiwar activist Cindy Shehan, who announced she will challenge Pelosi if the speaker doesn't move to impeach the president within two weeks. The spokesman said Pelosi is instead focused on ending the war

Oregon House Speaker To Decide This Month On Senate Bid
Jeff Merkley, the Democratic Speaker of the Oregon House, said on Friday that he will announce by the end of this month whether he will run for U.S. Senate against second-term Republican Gordon Smith. Democrats have had a hard time recruiting a candidate to oppose Smith, who has broken vocally from the White House's Iraq policies. There is a precedent for a legislative leader winning a Senate race — before his first election in 1996, Smith was himself the state Senate President.

Stevens: Ethics Probes Could Hurt My Re-Election
Ted Stevens acknowledged to the Associated Press that the current ethics investigations against him could hurt his re-election campaign next year. "If this is still hanging around a year from November, it could cause me some trouble," Stevens said. Stevens has been an institution unto himself in the state's politics, having served in the Senate since his appointment in 1968, so the very idea of a tough race and ethics inquiries would seem pretty jarring. Democrats have been trying to recruit Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich for the race.

Duckworth Will Not Run Again For Congress
Disabled Iraq War veteran Tammy Duckworth, who ran unsuccessfully as a Democrat last year for a GOP-leaning House district in Illinois, has announced that she will not run again in 2008. After the election, Governor Rod Blagojevich (D) appointed Duckworth as the state's Veterans Affairs director. Also not running again is Christine Cegelis, a software engineer who was the Dem nominee in 2004 and lost the primary to Duckworth in 2006.

Hirshberg Endorses Obama
Stonyfield Yogurt CEO Gary Hirshberg, a major Democratic fundraiser in New Hampshire, is supporting Barack Obama. Six months ago, Hirshberg was supporting Tom Vilsack and also considering a run for United State Senate. Since then, Vilsack dropped out — backing Hillary Clinton, not Obama — and Hirshberg now supports the Senate bid of Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand.

Voinovich Not Joining Bush In Ohio Tomorrow
Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) will not be accepting a White House invitation to join the President at a local factory and clinic in Cleveland tomorrow, but a spokesman said that fact has nothing to do with the Senator's recent break with the President on Iraq policy. "There’s really nothing more to it," he said. The Senator has declined invitations to join previous presidential visits.

As we reported below, a new Congressional analysis shows that the cost of the Iraq War has jumped to an astounding $10 billion per month -- a fact that is certain to be picked up by Democrats and wielded like a mace against Bush and the GOP over Iraq.

Well, it's already started. From a statement just uncorked by Nancy Pelosi on the war costs:

“Think about what $10 billion a month would mean to protecting Americans from terrorism, improving security at our ports and airports, and increasing border security. Think about what $10 billion a month would mean for the 47 million Americans who don’t have health insurance, for the survivors of Hurricane Katrina, and for the education of our children. Think about what $10 billion a month would mean to lowering the deficit so that future generations are not burdened with debt.

“The American people are outraged at the Bush Administration’s misplaced priorities -- that is why Congress will hold the Administration accountable with votes this month to end the war and redeploy the troops. This will include a vote on legislation to begin redeployment of our troops within 120 days and to conclude by April 1, 2008, with the exception of those remaining in Iraq to fight terrorists and protect our diplomats.

“The date-certain legislation gives our Republican colleagues another opportunity to join Democrats in heeding the wishes of the American people, who want to wind down this war and bring our troops home.”

Another opportunity that will be missed by who knows how many allegedly "defecting" Republicans who in reality are Defectors In Name Only.

Have no fear, the GOP's DINO caucus will remain alive and well...

For those of you who are alarmed by the anti-democratic tendencies of today's GOP, you needn't worry any longer: The leader of the Senate Republicans has just conceded to his constituents that their opinions -- and those of the public at large -- are "not irrelevant."

An article in USA Today captures the surreal but revealing scene:

HOPKINSVILLE, Ky — Just down the road at Fort Campbell on Thursday, TV cameras captured a wrenching scene: tearful spouses exchanging last hugs and toddlers clinging to parents' desert fatigues as troops prepared to ship out for a 15-month deployment.

Hours later, the man who must try to hold Senate Republicans together in this week's debate on Iraq delivered a luncheon speech here to 130 local business and political leaders. Mitch McConnell, Kentucky's senior senator and his party's Senate leader, did not sugarcoat the situation.

"The majority of the public has decided the Iraq effort is not worth it," he said. "That puts a lot of pressure on Congress to act because public opinion in a democracy is not irrelevant."

Phew, thank God for that. I was getting worried there for a minute.

Coming from one of today's GOP leaders, that's quite a concession. This isn't meant ironically, either, in case you were wondering.

Could today get any worse politically for President Bush? Not only are Senate Democrats turning the defense authorization bill into a multi-pronged attack on the Iraq War, but now the Congressional Research Service has just released some extraordinary new figures showing that the costs of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars has jumped to an astounding $12 billion per month.

The revelation will give Dems yet another war-related issue against Bush and will send yet more shivers down the spines of vulnerable GOP incumbents.

Twelve billion dollars per month. For anyone counting, that's $10 billion every month for Iraq and $2 billion for Afghanistan. In 2005, the bill for Iraq was $8 billion a month. CRS attributes the additional monthly $2 billion to the surge -- an operation that the Pentagon estimated in January would only cost an additional $5.6 billion through September.

All of this is tremendously inconvenient for the President. The essence of his case against the Democrats is that the costs of the Iraq war pale in comparison to the costs of withdrawal. But withdrawal's costs are, as of now, diffuse and speculative. And Democrats are sure to use the new CRS report to illustrate that the costs of the war -- human and monetary alike -- are real, concrete, and mounting at an increasingly torrid pace.

A new Gallup poll shows Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani continuing to post strong national primary leads, while Barack Obama and Fred Thompson have solidified their holds on the second-place positions in their respective parties:

Republicans
Giuliani 30%
F. Thompson 20%
McCain 16%
Romney 9%

Democrats
Clinton 37%
Obama 21%
Gore 16%
Edwards 13%

"If nothing else, we've apparently convinced the Clintons that it really is a bad thing to lie under oath."

How about that. Comedian Al Franken has just announced on his blog that his Minnesota Senate campaign raised $1.9 million last quarter, outpacing his potential (and very vulnerable) 2008 GOP opponent, incumbent Norm Coleman, who raised only $1.6 million.

Franken also nearly tripled the haul of his rival for the Dem nomination, Mike Ciresi, who brought in $750,000. A few other interesting factoids about Franken's pull after the jump.

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In a speech Mitt Romney gave this weekend at the Young Republican's convention, Romney had a little fun claiming Hillary is a Marxist. Of course, Romney was forced to badly distort some recent Hillary remarks in order to make this case. Take a look:







That's Romney's version of Hillary, anyway. Her actual remarks after the jump.

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The White House is denying today's big New York Times report saying that officials are debating announcing an "intention" to begin withdrawal from Iraq, the Associated Press reports:

"There is no debate right now on withdrawing forces right now from Iraq," Snow said.

"The president has said many times that as conditions require and merit that there will be in fact withdrawals and also pulling back from areas of Baghdad and so on," the press secretary said. "But the idea of trying to make a political judgment rather than a military judgment about how to have forces in the field is simply not true."

We'll be bringing you more after Snow's 12:30 briefing today.

Readers: Here's your Election Central guide to all the possible legislative initiatives to end the Iraq War that are being worked out behind the scenes by Dem Congressional leaders and may be launched in the coming days.

Today Act II of the Democratic Congress' efforts to end the Iraq war kicks off in earnest -- beginning this afternoon, when the defense authorization bill goes to the Senate floor for two weeks of debate.

Democrats intend to turn the measure into a referendum on Iraq by introducing a whole series of Iraq-related amendments to the $650 billion defense bill, which sets Pentagon policy priorities for the next year. Each of these amendments is designed to rein in President Bush's conduct of the war and to force Senate Republicans to take a stand on the war and testing Bush's remaining political capital.

But the sheer amount of legislative initiatives Dems are planning -- and the complexity of the politics and policy details surrounding them -- can sometimes make the whole exercise seem bewilderingly complex. How would each initiative work? What are the prospects for each one's success? What is each one's real political purpose?

In advance of the coming showdown, our handy guide to all the different initiatives attempts to answer all such questions. View our guide after the jump.

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Iraq War Debate Resumes In Senate As White House Plots Possible Strategy Shift
The Senate starts today on an expected two weeks of debate on the 2008 defense authorization bill and funding for the war in the next fiscal year, including several amendments focusing on withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq. One key amendment would require that soldiers spend time at home at least equal to their deployments and another would cause the authorization for the war to expire in October. Growing dissent has prompted some in the White House to consider a shift in policy, including reducing troops in the most dangerous areas of Iraq, that would allow President Bush to regain some control of the debate.

Edwards Proposes New Taxes On Hedge Funds
At a campaign stop in New Hampshire yesterday, John Edwards proposed three new taxes on hedge funds that could raise $4 to $6 billion in annual revenue, endorsing the Blackstone bill currently in Congress and other measures. Edwards has said he worked as an advisor to hedge fund Fortress Investment Group because he wanted to better understand the industry's relationship to poverty — but he also said making money was good, too.

Lugar: Majority Of Troops Could Leave Iraq By Mid-2008
Appearing on CNN yesterday, Senator Richard Lugar gave some more details of his break from the White House on Iraq policy. "I would think a majority of our forces could redeploy by the midpoint of next year, probably before that time, but by then," Lugar said. "I've advocated a majority to come out of Iraq, that the rest to redeploy somewhere other than going door to door in the present surge."

Sheehan Mulls Run Against Pelosi
Anti-war activist Cindy Sheehan has said she will run against House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) in the next election if she doesn't move to impeach President Bush in the next two weeks. The threat of an independent bid against Pelosi comes as Sheehan and her supporters start a caravan tour from Crawford, Texas, to Washington. "I think all politicians should be held accountable," Sheehan told The Associated Press on Sunday. "Democrats and Americans feel betrayed by the Democratic leadership. We hired them to bring an end to the war."

Hagel: No Plans To Leave GOP "For Right Now"
Chuck Hagel denied having interest in an independent campaign for president, or any other sort of party switch, but seemingly made sure to do so in a way that left a lot of wiggle room. When asked on Meet The Press if he was ruling such a thing out, Hagel replied, "For right now I am. And what the world looks like next year, I don't know. But I have no plans to change parties or run for president as an independent."

Poll: Lautenberg's Ratings Weak, But He Still Beats Generic GOPer
A new Quinnipiac poll finds that Senator Frank Lautenberg's (D-NJ) approval/disapproval rating stands at 31%-39%, and his re-elect/somebody else number is 31%-42%. And on top of that, 54% say he is too old to serve another term effectively. A caveat: New Jersey's Dem-leaning voters have a historic tendency to hate their politicians but re-elect them anyway — such as electing Senator Bob Menendez to a full term last year, despite having always had very weak approval ratings since he took office. And in this new poll, Lautenberg leads a generic Republican by a margin of 40%-33%.

Giuliani Hedges On National Sales Tax
At a campaign stop in Florida on Saturday, Rudy Giuliani declined to support a "Fair Tax" proposal — the slogan supporters use for abolishing the current federal tax system and replacing it with a national sales tax — though he did not close the door completely. "I have to study it some more," the former New York City mayor said. "I don't think a fair tax is realistic change for America. Our economy is dependent upon the way our tax system operates."

Bill Gardner: Most Powerful Man In Presidential Politics?
The Boston Globe has a feature story about New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner, who has held his office for over 30 years — indeed, for over half his life. Under state law, Gardner has the power to unilaterally set the date for the primary, and he is formally charged with the duty of making sure they go first, no matter what other states might try to do. "We've given him the tools to be able to adjust the New Hampshire date," said Democratic state Rep. Jim Splaine, "but he's been the great carpenter, very artistic in figuring out ways to work with other states and let the powers that be know they can't move ahead."

Giuliani Admits NASCAR Ignorance — And Desire To Learn
Rudy Giuliani prepared for his first NASCAR race yesterday in Daytona Beach by reading "The Female Fan Guide To Motorsports," which was written by a fundraiser for the former mayor. His wife Judith, who is female, did not need the guide, however, as she grew up near a race track in Pennsylvania.

File this one in the "I have some lovely real estate in Florida to sell you" department.

According to this morning's Times, White House officials are debating whether they should say that they "intend" to reduce troop levels in Iraq at some point or other:

White House officials fear that the last pillars of political support among Senate Republicans for President Bush’s Iraq strategy are collapsing around them, according to several administration officials and outsiders they are consulting. They say that inside the administration, debate is intensifying over whether Mr. Bush should try to prevent more defections by announcing his intention to begin a gradual withdrawal of American troops from the high-casualty neighborhoods of Baghdad and other cities...

Four more Republican senators have recently declared that they can no longer support Mr. Bush’s strategy, including senior lawmakers who until now had expressed their doubts only privately. As a result, some aides are now telling Mr. Bush that if he wants to forestall more defections, it would be wiser to announce plans for a far more narrowly defined mission for American troops that would allow for a staged pullback, a strategy that he rejected in December as a prescription for defeat when it was proposed by the bipartisan Iraq Study Group.

So the White House is debating whether to announce that it has the "intention" of beginning a "gradual" withdrawal at some point.

This is very nice to hear, but according to The Times, the explicit goal here is merely to prevent GOP defections on actual legislation that would accomplish a pullout. So doesn't it seem likely that such a White House announcement would simply give GOPers the cover they need not to defect and thus not to support any actual withdrawal policies?

Sure, an announcement of this sort would give war opponents some more leverage. But it would also allow Republicans allegedly thinking about defecting to say, you know, "the Commander in Chief has said he intends to begin pulling out, so let's pay him deference and give him the time and flexibility he needs to do this right," yada yada yada.

Rasmussen Polls Impeachment And Removal
A new Rasmussen poll asks, "Should President Bush be impeached and removed from office?" The result: 39% for impeachment and removal, 49% opposed — meaning that though a minority favors removal, it is a much stronger minority than ever favored Bill Clinton's impeachment when he was actually being impeached. This question is much more blunt than a previous American Research Group poll, which asked if the House should begin impeachment proceedings — and it turns out that those favoring it only goes down by a few points under Rasmussen's wording. And another caveat: Rasmussen has historically been the most friendly pollster on Bush's approval ratings, so it could be that the impeachment number is understated.

Edwards Says He's Confident About His Fundraising
John Edwards is standing by his third-place position in the Democratic money race, saying the campaign's goal of $40 million by the time of the Iowa caucus will be enough to remain competitive. Edwards also cautioned skeptics about putting too much faith in the money race: "Everyone will remember Governor Dean who out-raised everyone else by more than 2-to-1 and wasn't able to win the nomination."

Iowa Evangelicals Weighing Their Options
The New York Times has a write-up on the feelings of Christian Right voters and activists in Iowa, looking over the Republican field and seeing problems with all the choices. For now, many are leaning toward Mitt Romney despite his Mormonism, although there is some curiosity about Fred Thompson. And above all, Rudy Giuliani's socially liberal stances on abortion and other issues definitely alienate many of them.

Republican Brand Damaged In Virginia
A new Washington Post poll finds that disapproval of President Bush has seriously weakened the Republican brand among independents in Virginia, which has not voted for a Democrat for president since the 1964 Lyndon Johnson landslide. In the poll, 46% of independents say Bush is the worst president since 1961, far ahead of his closest competitor Jimmy Carter, who has 14%. And among all respondents, a generic Democrat currently leads a generic Republican for president by a 40%-33% margin.

Brownback Joins "TheCall" For A Purer America
Sam Brownback took part in a national evangelical event dubbed "TheCall," in which participants asked God to perform a miracle and change the United States' morally corrupt ways. Interestingly, in addition to his condemnation of abortion, Brownback asked Hispanics for forgiveness over the Senate's defeat of the immigration bill, and what he considered some of the hateful rhetoric surrounding the debate. "I want to say to my Latino brothers, forgive us for that," he said. "We want you in America. We love you and ask you to forgive us for these negative comments."

Obama Iowa Office Burglarized
A Barack Obama campaign office in Davenport, Iowa, was burglarized. Thieves stole two laptop computers and, curiously enough, some campaign literature. Obama spokesman Tommy Vietor said nothing too secure was taken: "It doesn't appear that it was anything sensitive or irreplaceable."

Dingell To Propose Carbon Tax — But Is He Serious?
House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman John Dingell (D-MI) said in an interview that he will propose a carbon tax to lower greenhouse emissions, increase the tax on a gallon of gasoline by 50 cents. But Dingell, who has championed the auto industry that is so important to his district, seemed to imply that this more of a modest proposal than a serious one. "I sincerely doubt that the American people are willing to pay what this is really going to cost them," Dingell said.