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Poll: Gore Draws Equally From Hillary And Obama
CQ Politics flags an interesting nugget in the new USA Today/Gallup poll. According to the survey's numbers, Al Gore would siphon equally from Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, suggesting that his entry into the race wouldn't necessarily affect the outcome.
"With Gore included, Clinton still handily leads the pack at 33 percent while Obama gets 21 percent to Gore’s 18 percent, a statistical dead heat for second place," CQ says. "Take Gore out of the equation and the Gallup poll shows Clinton at 39 percent and Obama at 26 percent."
Of course, if Gore did enter the race, he'd have a chance to, you know, actually do a bit of campaigning, which might change the equation in all sorts of unforeseen ways over time.
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I don't understand why national polls are done for primary races, or why we political junkies even bother repeating them. Primaries are not decided nationally. They're decided based on a few early votes until we change our insane system.
All we know for sure at this point is that the numbers will change radically over the coming year. My uniformed guess is that an official Gore entry into the race would spell the end for Clinton, but that guess is about as valuable as this poll.
June 18, 2007 3:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I disagree that Gore would spell doom for Hillary. One thing we can predict with confidence: as soon as Gore starts campaigning (which I doubt he will), his support will wilt and wither out of sheer ennui.
The support for Gore is testimony to voter irrationality. Many Dems looked longingly for an alternative to the Gore-bot 2000, to the point where even the staid and monotonous Bill Bradley looked like a vibrant alternative. Gore picked Lieberman as a running mate (does the term "judgment" ring a bell?), and, at the end of an error-filled campaign, nearly tripped over himself in his eagerness to concede on election night.
And yet, he has this core of support now, probably just out of nostalgia for what might have been had he been awarded the office that he "really won." The problem is, it never might have been because Gore is one of the worst politicians in America. He's not owed the presidency any more than Hillary is owed the nomination. He had his chance, and it was a golden opportunity. He ran his campaign as though he were protecting a 15 point lead, and not running neck and neck against a ruthless opponent. He doesn't deserve the opportunity to blow another one.
June 18, 2007 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not surprised by this, especially since Gore is likely not running.
But, if he did, given what he's been through before, I'm sure his campaign would be energetic and skilled.
If he's learned anything from 2000 and given the good will he's built up since, if he runs, he'd draw equally from Hillary and Obama by trouncing them both.
thosethingswesay.blogspot.com
June 18, 2007 8:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent comment.
I only disagree because I think that Gore is smart enough that he basically has to have learned from 2000.
If he were to run (and he won't, I don't think he's even really interested) I think he'd correct past mistakes with a vengeance.
thosethingswesay.blogspot.com
June 18, 2007 8:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gore, a boring robot??? Only if you don't like them intelligent, in which case you wouldn't like any of the current Dem candidates. Yeah, I was p...d off with his choice of Lieberman for a running mate, but, surely, he's learnt from that mistake?
And I'm not at all sure that the current support for him would evaporate like morning dew the moment he announced his candidacy; I think it would only build, once people knew he *were* running; I think it's the uncertainty that keeps people from comitting. There must be others, like me, who are still dithering about their choice (mine's between Edwards and Obama) but who'd have no such doubts if we were given the chance to vote for Gore (I'd take Clark, too; another non-runner)
June 18, 2007 10:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
You'd think so, and you'd be wrong. The Dems NEVER learn from their mistakes. Kerry made the same mistakes Gore and Dukakis did. Gore would most likely repeat his past mistakes in a semi-conscious effort to vindicate the terrible strategy of his 2000 campaign.
And in the unlikely event that he did correct his past mistakes (or enough of them to matter), he would just make a whole new set of mistakes to blow the election. He's a good administrator and terrible politician who shouldn't be let within a thousand miles of a campaign.
June 19, 2007 4:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't know if this means anything, but I'm in Taiwan and one of the local English papers last week carried a small news item on Gore. He had been scheduled for a speaking tour here in September and the organizer/host was notified that Gore had cleared his calendar for the rest of the year and would not be coming to Taiwan. The report said he was preparing his presidential bid. Anyway, you read it here first.
July 1, 2007 6:52 AM | Reply | Permalink