New Polls: Bloomberg Would Have Little Impact On Presidential Outcome
An interesting new round of polls from SurveyUSA finds that an independent candidacy by New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg would, well, not really matter that much at all or appreciably affect the outcome of the 2008 contest.
Bloomberg is at or around 10% in most of the states. But even with Bloomberg in the race, those states expected to go Democratic stay Dem. And those expected to go Republican stay Republican. Swing states, meanwhile, remain up in the air between the two parties. In short, it does not appear that Bloomberg currently presents any spoiler effect, let alone a chance of a winning.
Minnesota: Clinton (D) 48%, Giuliani (R) 37%, Bloomberg (I) 7%
Wisconsin: Clinton (D) 44%, Giuliani (R) 40%, Bloomberg (I) 10%
Oregon: Clinton (D) 44%, Giuliani (R) 38%, Bloomberg (I) 11%
Washington: Clinton (D) 42%, Giuliani (R) 41%, Bloomberg (I) 11%
Iowa: Clinton (D) 42%, Giuliani (R) 37%, Bloomberg (I) 11%
California: Clinton (D) 45%, Giuliani (R) 40%, Bloomberg (I) 10%
Massachusetts: Clinton (D) 47%, Giuliani (R) 37%, Bloomberg (I) 9%
New York: Clinton (D) 49%, Giuliani (R) 32%, Bloomberg (I) 15%
Alabama: Giuliani (R) 46%, Clinton (D) 39%, Bloomberg (I) 11%
Kentucky: Giuliani (R) 42%, Clinton (D) 41%, Bloomberg (I) 10%
Texas: Giuliani (R) 48%, Clinton (D) 34%, Bloomberg (I) 10%
Virginia: Giuliani (R) 45%, Clinton (D) 40%, Bloomberg (I) 9%
Kansas: Giuliani (R) 47%, Clinton (D) 36%, Bloomberg (I) 8%
New Mexico: Clinton (D) 45%, Giuliani (R) 41%, Bloomberg (I) 8%
Missouri: Clinton (D) 44%, Giuliani (R) 39%, Bloomberg (I) 10%
Ohio: Clinton (D) 47%, Giuliani (R) 41%, Bloomberg (I) 8%
Of course, things might change a bit if Mayor Mike were to sink half a billion dollars or so into TV ads in those states. But this is where things stand right now, at any rate.
This doesn't bode well for the "Clinton is unelectable" line.
June 18, 2007 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I disagree with this view.
Most people have no idea who Bloomberg is and what he stands for. When they find out about his liberal views he will likely take more votes away from Democrats.
June 18, 2007 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is that like the "world is round" line?
June 18, 2007 12:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Probably. I'd venture a guess that most of the 10% said "Bloomberg" either because they heard the name on the TV financial "news" or because he was the only one who was not Hillary and not Rudy.
June 18, 2007 1:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indeed...
I guess if you hate Hillary, it doesn't matter that she's apparently tied in Kentucky(!) and winning Ohio and Missouri.
June 18, 2007 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think using Giuliani as the Republican nominee is very useful. Giuliani is the most moderate of the Republicans on social issues (which isn't necessarily saying much) and that neutralizes much of Bloomberg's appeal.
If the Republicans nominate more of a wingnut on the social issues, though, it's entirely possible that moderate Republican voters will look to Bloomberg as the non-crazy alternative.
I don't see Bloomberg as having a ton of salience on the D side under any plausible scenario.
June 18, 2007 4:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right, 17 months before the election.
My take is that this shows once again that a 3rd-party candidacy would have a massive impact b/c if the outcomes in a few states were tipped, that would make all the difference in the world.
(Think Nader in Florida in 2000, if you can even bear to think about that.)
June 18, 2007 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink