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New Polls: Bloomberg Would Have Little Impact On Presidential Outcome

An interesting new round of polls from SurveyUSA finds that an independent candidacy by New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg would, well, not really matter that much at all or appreciably affect the outcome of the 2008 contest.

Bloomberg is at or around 10% in most of the states. But even with Bloomberg in the race, those states expected to go Democratic stay Dem. And those expected to go Republican stay Republican. Swing states, meanwhile, remain up in the air between the two parties. In short, it does not appear that Bloomberg currently presents any spoiler effect, let alone a chance of a winning.

Minnesota: Clinton (D) 48%, Giuliani (R) 37%, Bloomberg (I) 7%
Wisconsin: Clinton (D) 44%, Giuliani (R) 40%, Bloomberg (I) 10%
Oregon: Clinton (D) 44%, Giuliani (R) 38%, Bloomberg (I) 11%
Washington: Clinton (D) 42%, Giuliani (R) 41%, Bloomberg (I) 11%
Iowa: Clinton (D) 42%, Giuliani (R) 37%, Bloomberg (I) 11%
California: Clinton (D) 45%, Giuliani (R) 40%, Bloomberg (I) 10%
Massachusetts: Clinton (D) 47%, Giuliani (R) 37%, Bloomberg (I) 9%
New York: Clinton (D) 49%, Giuliani (R) 32%, Bloomberg (I) 15%
Alabama: Giuliani (R) 46%, Clinton (D) 39%, Bloomberg (I) 11%
Kentucky: Giuliani (R) 42%, Clinton (D) 41%, Bloomberg (I) 10%
Texas: Giuliani (R) 48%, Clinton (D) 34%, Bloomberg (I) 10%
Virginia: Giuliani (R) 45%, Clinton (D) 40%, Bloomberg (I) 9%
Kansas: Giuliani (R) 47%, Clinton (D) 36%, Bloomberg (I) 8%
New Mexico: Clinton (D) 45%, Giuliani (R) 41%, Bloomberg (I) 8%
Missouri: Clinton (D) 44%, Giuliani (R) 39%, Bloomberg (I) 10%
Ohio: Clinton (D) 47%, Giuliani (R) 41%, Bloomberg (I) 8%

Of course, things might change a bit if Mayor Mike were to sink half a billion dollars or so into TV ads in those states. But this is where things stand right now, at any rate.


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