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New Poll: Yep, The 2008 Election Will Be All About Iraq War

Some interesting new poll numbers from Gallup suggest that the 2008 Presidential election will be all about Iraq -- and that candidates who favor withdrawal timetables may head into the general election with a sizeable advantage over the pro-war candidates.

The Gallup survey finds that an astonishing 75% -- that would be three out of four voters -- say that the Iraq War will be "extremely" or "very" important in determining their vote.

Memo to Chuck Schumer: These numbers would seem to suggest that you may have been mistaken when you asserted recently that the 2008 elections wouldn't turn on Iraq.

The poll also finds that 58% of overall respondents -- and 61% of independents -- say they're "more likely" to vote for a candidate who "only supports legislation on the war that includes a timetable for removing U.S. troops from Iraq." Only 36% say they're "less likely" to vote for someone who only supports such legislation. (Interestingly, the cutting off funding option is overwhelmingly opposed in the poll.)

Memo to Rudy Giuliani: If these numbers are any indication, John Edwards may have been right yesterday when he said yesterday that you would "never be President" if you continued embracing George Bush's policies.


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Someone forgot to tell our new Congress.
They're afraid to buck Bush 'cause Rove might call them bad names presently.
Representative government, un-huh.

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one hopes Dems will pay attention to numbers like these...

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Memo to Chuck Schumer: These numbers would seem to suggest that you may have been mistaken when you asserted recently that the 2008 elections wouldn't turn on Iraq.

Why bother with the memo? Schumer is part of the same brilliant inside-the-beltway DC crowd that didn't want Democrats making an issue of Iraq prior to the last election. That didn't want Democrats trying to contest in all 50 states (what an idea, huh? Trying to compete in every state?) Thankfully, enough people ignored him. Let's just continue to ignore his political instincts, shall we?

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Only about one in three Americans (33%) say they are more likely to vote for a presidential candidate who "supports legislation that would cut off funding for the war in Iraq," while 60% say they are less likely.

Just great.

The failure of [deleted] to address the facts has had a powerful impact.

Thank God for Edwards and Dodd telling the truth.

Best, Terry

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Don't give Giuliani any Memos. It's fun to watch the GOP out testosterone each other. The GOP has been able to mask their extremism for years. Progressives should use the GOP primary to expose the extreme positions they take on pretty much every issue.

Not that Dems shouldn't be criticized when it's deserved, but it seems that there is less ferocity aimed at the GOP then there should be (maybe we have gotten used to them?). They are the cause of the problems. The Dems could do more, but most of the problems we face are a direct result of 6 years of Bush rule and 12 years of GOP congressional rule.

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Nice, the timing for this poll couldn't have been better vis-a-vis Edwards vs. Giuliani. Notice Giuliani never tried to deny that he wants Four More Years, for Bush's Policies and the Iraq War.

This should also be a memo to all of the "very serious people" in Washington, the American people are pretty serious about this too.

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I hope Obama runs ad with Hillary's statement:

 "if you do not like how I voted on the war, don't vote for me"

ad nauseum, daily and weekly.

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The reason Schumer say this is because he thinks the republicans will force the president to commence withdrawals. I don't see how he comes to that conclusion. I don't see 18 Republican senators ready to do that.

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The 2008 election? Heh. That's just the for starters.

What Holbrooke argued was this: President Bush has already expressly acknowledged -- even affirmed -- that Iraq will be a problem he will hand off to his successor. Holbrooke then very carefully, and ominously, took us through the richochet-like sequence of consequences: the successor inherits Iraq and is bedeviled by it starting in 2009; Iraq becomes not a but the issue during the successor's reelection campaign in 2012; Iraq skews domestic and foreign policy during the successor's lame-duck term; Iraq continues to entrap the candidates running for President in 2016.Holbrooke intoned all of this as if he were reciting a dirge.
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Wait, wait, what does Bob Shrum have to say?!?!

Aren't American voters always pro-war?

Isn't opposing a war always a losing political position?

/snark

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Yeah, let's hope. But wouldn't it be wonderful if they acted simply out of principle and backbone instead of a finger in the wind?

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I believe I remember that Schumer wouldn't meet with Cindy Sheehan but sent his spokesperson to say that Sen. Schumer thought the Iraq War was "good for America."

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Oh, sick. Can you remember where you might have seen that?

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So the vast majority of the American people agree with Obey, Pelosi and Reid. They don't want an immediate cut off of funding, they want an orderly withdrawal. That sounds about right.

It'd be nice if their most outspoken critics would acknowledge that they are doing the will of the people.

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That can and will happen if we make it happen. How many of you have written a Republican senator up for election next year today to let him know he's going home with Bush in 09 unless he votes to end the occupation?

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So the vast majority of the American people agree with Obey, Pelosi and Reid. They don't want an immediate cut off of funding

That's not what the polls say.

Pelosi incidentally voted right - er, left.

Best, Terry

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The May 24 NYTimes/CBS poll said only 13% support an immediate cut off of funding. This poll says
only a third is likely to vote for a candidate who wants to cut off funds while 60% would vote against such a candidate.

Sorry Terry, that's what it says. Most of America wants a timeline and an orderly withdrawal NOT a clusterf*ck run for the Kuwaiti border led by George Bush.

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Schumer has never said a 50-state strategy is a bad idea.

He said you can have one, and that it would be a good idea, but you can't give the same amount of money to a challenger in Nebrasker polling at 20% as you do to someone who is just within the grasp of winning the election in a more purpler state.

Both Dean and Schumer have given each other due credit for the successs in '06.

The netroots gets Tester and Webb. Mad props there.

The beltway gets McGaskill and Casey. Props there as well.

This is a petty (and old and divisive) grudge over a few heated arguments that were made in the heat of battle.

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that's not what she said.

she said if an apology is the most crucial thing to you, then don't vote for her.

It would be fine with me if obama runs an add with the correct quote.

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I would like to see a cite for that as well.

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In the wake of the failure of the supplemental bill I suspect many of us were demoralized and thrown off stride. I was, in any case. But in any event I think it's urgent to work with the public and with Congress to keep a laser focus on Iraq as THE ISSUE. In a sense we can't let the rest of the Republican 85 ring Washington folly. distract us either. There are Republicans to be won over, there are blue dogs to be convinced. Every day this horror goes on is a tragedy.

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On the Huffingtonpost
Cindy Sheehan
War-Hawk Republicans and Anti-War Democrats: What's the Difference?
October 4, 2005

"The War-Hawk Dems I met with were equally, if not more, disheartening. Although my meeting with Sen. Clinton (D-NY) went well, I don't believe she will do anything to alleviate the suffering of the Americans in Iraq or the Iraqi people. I don't believe that sending more troops is the solution, it will only aggravate an already untenable situation. We met in NYC with Sen. Charles Schumer's aide, who told us that the Senator thinks the occupation of Iraq is a "good thing for America" but he wouldn't elaborate on why. The aide was asked if the senator had a vested interest in keeping this war going, because the senator is certainly not stupid enough to believe that this misbegotten, misadventure in the Middle East is good for anyone. I don't think the people of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi would agree with the senator that this illegal occupation is a "good thing."

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The May 24 NYTimes/CBS poll said only 13% support an immediate cut off of funding...

Sorry Terry, that's what it says.

The answers you get depend largely on the questions you ask. The facts you assert are based on what you want to believe rather than the cold hard numbers.

I don't think anyone wants to see American soldiers left unarmed, hungry and naked in a hostile land with the majority of the population approving of their slaughter.

Is that the question you are addressing or is it something else?

Near as I can tell Hillary doesn't want the troops out of Iraq anymore than Bush and Cheney do. Obama is not clear on things.

I doubt most Americans want the troops to go to Kuwait as you suggest or even the ones there to remain.

I would personally like to see WWII ended with our troops retrieved from Germany. Think Americans might like to end WWII if given their druthers?

Best, Terry

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http://www.thenation.com/doc/20050829/berman
"Holbrooke, who's been dubbed the "closest thing the party has to a Kissinger" by one foreign policy analyst, even tacked to Bush's right, arguing in February 2003 that anything less than an invasion of Iraq would undermine international law."

Thats from an article titled "Strategic Class." I would sure like to see all those folks confronted with their responsibility for this disaster, which was inevitable from invading Iraq. Biden is getting off easy, too. I remember so well the way he dismissed antiwar people and how it infuriated me.

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Did Chuck Schumer really say that? Dear Lord, they still just don't get it, do they?

I came here from a link on Eschaton where Atrios said he predicted this in 2005. Well, I did too. And I'll make this further prediction:

The 2010 election will turn on Iraq, as well.

Wait, you are saying. We will have a Democratic president by then! Surely that can't be! Well, maybe we will, maybe we won't, but even if we do, I still think it will be about Iraq and us getting out of there. Whether it's Clinton or Obama, both of them are paying lip service to the idea of getting out of Iraq. It's crazy, but, just listen to Schumer, and you'll realize that they all are crazy. Well, dysfunctional, maybe.

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There are 21 republican senators, from Susan Collins to Ted Stevens, up in 2008. One, Wayne Allard of Colorado has said he will not run. There are rumors that Warner may not run. All these Senators, in my view, are in trouble, some more than others. Pressuring them now and often is our best hope of getting out before 08.

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Whether it's Clinton or Obama, both of them are paying lip service to the idea of getting out of Iraq. It's crazy, but, just listen to Schumer, and you'll realize that they all are crazy.

All we New Yorkers are known to be crazy as loons but Senators Schumer and Clinton are worse than average. Clinton should long ago have been arrested for impersonating a Democrat.

I don't think it's clear at all what Obama is saying though I am listening a lot more to Edwards and Dodd and even Kucinich and Gravel these days.

If liberals insist on voting for faux Democrats like Clinton, then that's all they will ever be offered by the Democratic establishment and the hell with what the people would like.

Best, Terry

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Show me some cold hard numbers then. You are free to cite polls that say the majority of Americans want an immediate end to funding if you can find one. I don't care how you couch it, they say they overwhelmingly don't.

I'm not interested in more Hillary or Obama bashing.I want you to back up your position with facts.

Kuwait is the way out of Iraq. It's where we came in from, it's where we'll egress from. I'm not suggesting we "occupy" Kuwait though we do have bases there and the vast majority of Kuwaitis don't mind. There would be no Kuwait if not for the 1991 Gulf War. What's my proof they don't mind? Look how many attacks there have been on our soldiers in Kuwait.

You're not likely to convince Americans or anybody else that WW11 didn't end in 1945. When you use language like that, you're not helping your argument. If you're an isolationist that's fine, say so. But I think you'll also find that you're in a tiny minority of Americans there too.

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Show me some cold hard numbers then.

Look at any poll you wish, except possibly some garbage from Fox. Even the most rabid wingers are getting the message that folks want the occupation of Iraq done with.

You are free to cite polls that say the majority of Americans want an immediate end to funding if you can find one.

Again I ask you to find a single person who wants American soldiers left unarmed, starving and naked while being shot at. I think you will not find this person.

You're not likely to convince Americans or anybody else that WW11 didn't end in 1945.

So you think the American troops stationed in Germany are a creation of the press like the moon landing? Do tell us more. Are our troops in South Korea also fake news you think?

Should be most entertaining to read a fuller exposition of your - umm - scholarly thoughts.

Best, Terry

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BTW, Mark8, Edwards and Dodd and Kucinich plus the vast majority of American voters aren't the only ones seeking to end the occupation of Iraq. Some others have been infected with that desire of leftist fringe elements:

Headline:

Iraq passes resolution to end occupation

http://www.arabamericannews.com/newsarticle.php?articleid=8844

Maybe MoveOn has fooled the Iraqis too you think?

Best, Terry

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Again I ask you to find a single person who wants American soldiers left unarmed, starving and naked while being shot at. I think you will not find this person.

Agreed. They do not want "American soldiers left unarmed, starving and naked while being shot at." That is exactly why poll numbers show overwhelmingly they do not support an immediate end to funding of the War in Iraq. They also do not want to see other DoD projects put on hold at great expense, whether they agree we ought to even be building more attack submarines or F-22 fighters or not. Because believe me if a Dem congress was able to deny funding Bush would upend the entire Defense budget and allow as many contract penalties for the benefit of his boys in the defense industries as he possibly could to shift billions ot his war. The media would paint that as 10 times as expensive and even more irresponsible than Gingrich's government shut down in 1995. And you know exactly who they'd blame and it isn't Bush.

The fact is Terry the people of the US side with
Dems in congress. They want an orderly end to this war. They want us to convince Repubs to break with Bush and help us get a vetoproof majority. The do not want Dems to play chicken with the psycho in chief because they don't trust the psycho in chief not to do something even crazier like totally f*ck up the Defense budget or bomb Iran when pushed into the corner.

You're the one who said WW11 hasn't ended. So do you think the American troops stationed in Germany are fighting Nazis or just occupying Germany against their will these days? Are our troops in South Korea fighting anybody? Please send me the casualty reports.

Do you think American troops in Germany and Korea ever served a purpose? Was it a good idea to keep Stalin's goons from overrunning Western Europe and NE Asia in the 1940s and early 1950s or was that just some imperialist scheme on our part. Do tell.

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Agreed. They do not want "American soldiers left unarmed, starving and naked while being shot at." That is exactly why poll numbers show overwhelmingly they do not support an immediate end to funding of the War in Iraq.

So then it is your contention that American soldiers would have been left unarmed, starving and naked while being shot at if Democrats had refused to given Bush a blank check to continue getting them killed?

I think you will be hard-pressed to find anyone to agree with you.

The fact is Terry the people of the US side with Dems in congress.

The fact is, Mark, the vast majority of voters side with only those Democrats who want to end the nightmare.

[From our own ELECTION CENTRAL:]

Approval Of Dem Congress Slips In Two New Polls

By T. W. Farnam | bio

New Pew poll out today: Approval of Congress has slipped from 39% in January to 34% today.

New Fox News poll, also out today: Approval of Congress has slipped from 32% in January to 29 percent.

One very interesting footnote: In the Fox poll, less Democrats than Republicans approve of the Dem-Controlled Congress, 28%-33%. Could that be because of Congress' failure thus far to stall the Iraq war?

Don't you bother reading this website?

You're the one who said WW11 hasn't ended.

I said our occupation troops stationed in Germany after WWII are still there.

Did they move out when nobody was watching?

Our troops are still in Korea.

Do you think they moved out without notice?

Do you think American troops in Germany and Korea ever served a purpose?

Once they did indeed.

Long past time for them to be gone I think. The wars are over.

Or haven't you heard?

We are serving no purpose in Iraq either but rather keeping the situation even more inflamed than it otherwise would be. Meantime Americans and Iraqis both are suffering many needless deaths and disability.

Most voters agree with me.

Republican politicians nearly unanimously and many Democratic politicians agree with you.

I am happy to be on the side of the voters. They are not always right but they surely are this time.

Best, Terry

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that's not what she said.

Sure she did, that's what I heard. While you heard:

she said if an apology is the most crucial thing to you, then don't vote for her.

No apology means, she does not regret her actions nor respect that folks like me.'did not like her vote'.  So while you might think she was talking about apologizing. I heard a total lack of equivocation regarding her vote on the war and a disrespect for the regard of those who understand that sending Americans to die is the most crucial vote a Senator ever makes. So yes her vote was crucial and her lack of acknowledging it with that dismissive 'if an apology is the most crucial thing to you'   left me with the message...'tough, If you don't like how I voted, don't vote for me  Cause I do not intend to back down from that erroneous totally flawed decision, I made. I will never admit that. My judgment on my actions is unchanged. If doing so is important to you..tough.  Get over it or Don't vote for me.''

I heard exactly what she said.

 So did millions of others who know her actions were wrong then and wrong now, even if she had of known then what she knows now. Twenty-three other Senators knew what she knew then and they voted NO on the AUMF, so did over 100 Congressmen as well as the Senate chair of the Armed Svcs committee and the Intelligence committee. Hillary's inability to acknowledge her gross error in judgement is unacceptable in a individual who wants to be President. The last 8 years have taught us that folks like her think that 'staying the course' is resolve when it is actually obstreperous and intransgient stupidity.

She did not learn from her bad judgment. She wants the public to trust her to do it again.  I'm not.

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Terry go look in your inbox for my reply.

Well I was gonna reply privately but you don't accept email on this system. Oh well.

So then it is your contention that American soldiers would have been left unarmed, starving and naked while being shot at if Democrats had refused to given Bush a blank check to continue getting them killed?

I think you will be hard-pressed to find anyone to agree with you.

Congress with a majority of Repubs and a minority of Dems in both houses actually approved about $100 billion that will pay the occupation bills thru the end of this fiscal year which ends on Sept, 30 2007.

As destructive as Bush/Cheney are what do you think they'd do if Reid and Pelosi had just refused to bring up a bill? Tuck their tails between their legs, admit their mistakes and use what $$ they have left to end their favorite war? What makes you think Bush and Cheney would just cave in and say ok the jigs up, the people have spoken, we're bringing the troops home instead of upping the ante by doing something even crazier? You apparently have a lot of faith in them doing a 180 and suddenly becoming rational actors that I don't share.

I said our occupation troops stationed in Germany after WWII are still there.

Um, no you said:

I would personally like to see WWII ended with our troops retrieved from Germany. Think Americans might like to end WWII if given their druthers?

Here's something else you said:

Look at any poll you wish, except possibly some garbage from Fox.

And then you go on to promptly quote some garbage from FOX.

I'd like to see more polls (preferably not from FOX) on the breakdown of reasons why the left and right are angry with congress. I'm sure a lot on both sides are angry about the war funding bill. A lot on both sides are also angry about the immigration bill and the lobbying bill
that while pretty good and far beyond anything Repubs would even consider last year got lousy press. Repubs hate Dems, Dems hate Repubs and everybody says they hate congress. That's not very specific.

Long past time for them to be gone I think.

Haven't seen any poll numbers for removing US troops from Germany and Korea. I doubt most Americans agree with you that we ought to remove them. How about the Balkans, do you think we ought to bring 'em all home from there too? How about Afghanistan?

We are serving no purpose in Iraq either but rather keeping the situation even more inflamed than it otherwise would be. Meantime Americans and Iraqis both are suffering many needless deaths and isability.

Agreed.

Most voters agree with me.

Depends on your definition of "most". A majority agree with that statement as do I.

Republican politicians nearly unanimously and many Democratic politicians agree with you.
I am happy to be on the side of the voters. They are not always right but they surely are this time.

I've cited two specific polls that show
the American people want an orderly end to the war not an immediate cut off of funding. Reid and Pelosi's job here is very tough. It's like trying to land an airplane when you only control the fuel supply. They need to get help from Republicans to break into the cockpit and wrest the controls away from Bush before he crashes the plane. Cutting off the fuel will only crash the plane sooner.

You've cited two polls that are vaguer, that say people hate congress more than they did last month.

Now what say we quit arguing about who is more in touch with the voters and discuss what ought to be done about Iraq from here? I think we ought to work to convince Republican House reps and senators that they can kiss their political careers goodbye if they don't vote to end the occupation this fall. And then boot their butts out in 2008 anwyay. If you have a better strategy let's here it. And try to keep the glaring foolishness to a minimum please.

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Mark,

My email address is terryhallinan@inbox.com for anybody that wants to discuss anything but my mother. :-)

Yeah, I think a refusal of Democrats to fund the occupation would end it and voters would be overjoyed. It is all theoretical since most Democratic politicians as well as Republicans actually support the occupation.

Haven't seen any poll numbers for removing US troops from Germany and Korea. I doubt most Americans agree with you

That's the problem with thinking rather than reacting. Inertia is the main driving force in history or there probably would be no history. Bum policy normally only gets changed when it becomes catastrophic. OTOH I ask you why we should continue occupation from long ago wars. No need to answer. Most just accept.

How about the Balkans, do you think we ought to bring 'em all home from there too? How about Afghanistan?

Yes and yes.

Different questions in regard to time but I think Afghanistan is lost too and the folks in the Balkans seem quite capable of handling or mishandling, as the case may be, their own affairs.

I would far prefer that we were involved in ending the terrible genocide in Darfur than occupying countries that don't need us and others that don't want us.

JMO.

Best, Terry

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If you go look it up I think you'll find our military presence in Germany is mainly support and logistics for other theatres of operations these days. It's substantially diminished form what it was pre 1991 partly because places like Romania and Kosovo are cheaper to operate from.

Yeah, I think a refusal of Democrats to fund the occupation would end it and voters would be overjoyed.

The original polls I cited say that is fundamentally wrong. That has been the whole point of this discussion.

It is all theoretical since most Democratic politicians as well as Republicans actually support the occupation.

That is also wrong.

That's the problem with thinking rather than reacting. Inertia is the main driving force in history or there probably would be no history. Bum policy normally only gets changed when it becomes catastrophic. OTOH I ask you why we should continue occupation from long ago wars. No need to answer. Most just accept.

It really must suck being the only smart one in the room all the time. How do you stand it?

Different questions in regard to time

No idea what that means.

I think Afghanistan is lost too

It's getting there but of course if we ended our occupation of Iraq we'd have the resources, though right now not the leadership to make some kind of success out of that mess.

After decades of war with the Soviets, civil war and the booby prize of crazyass Taliban rule most Afghanis still are willing to give the real coalition forces we have there a chance instead of going back to being Madmaxland or the dour rule of the Taliban insaniacs. And that's despite Bush treating them like unlovely stepchildren compared to his favorites in Iraq. I guess letting them become the biggest exporter of opium again makes up for the lack of his malevolent attention. Of course capturing or killing Osama Bin Laden would be nice too.

and the folks in the Balkans seem quite capable of handling or mishandling, as the case may be, their own affairs.

You must have missed the 90s. You also must have missed Putin bragging the other day about he "dismissed" Kosovo's independence vote with a UN veto. Kosovars are bound and determined to have that vote and Serbs are adamantly opposed to it. Wouldn't take much to get them fighting again.

Hey I'd like to see a couple B-52s or an aircraft carrier's air wing spend an afternoon destroying Sudan's 12 helicopter air force. I think we could end that genocide without committing US troops we don't have anyway much like we did the Serb atrocities in Kosovo.

But that's just me, I'm not an isolationist.

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It really must suck being the only smart one in the room all the time. How do you stand it?

It's a terrible burden but one must bear up.

Best, Terry

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And this:

This is a petty (and old and divisive) grudge over a few heated arguments that were made in the heat of battle.

Is what's called revising history.

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