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Happy Hour Roundup

Iowa GOPer: Straw Poll Pullout "A Kick In The Shins, Or A Little Higher"
Iowa Republican Party executive director Chuck Laudner is not happy with the decisions by Rudy Giuliani and John McCain to withdraw from this August's Iowa straw poll. "This event helps us pay for Caucus Night and all those activities, plus it helps us fund our state house and senate races," Lauder told Radio Iowa. Laudner went even further, characterizing the pullouts as "a kick in the shins, or a little higher, right to the Iowa Republican Party."

Rudy Camp To Edwards: You're A Loser
Ben Smith was able to get a comment from the Rudy Giuliani campaign, regarding John Edwards' warning that Rudy would "never be president" if he continued to embrace the Bush foreign policy record. Rudy spokeswoman Katie Levinson: "John Edwards' track record of predicting election outcomes speaks for itself."

John Edwards Forced To Comment On Paris Hilton
A reporter asked John Edwards his opinion on Paris Hilton's early release from jail. His answer: "Um, I’m gonna stay out of the Paris Hilton story. (Edwards laughs.) Although I saw it seems to be completely dominating the news, I had the television on just before I came down. Uh, I still do believe, without regard to Paris Hilton, that, uh, we have two Americas and I think what’s important is, it’s obvious that the problem exists."

No Cloture on Immigration Bill, More Debate
Saying that more Republican amendments should reach the floor, Republican backers sided with the rest of their party to soundly block cloture, with only 33 votes in favor. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said the bill has limited time left on the floor.

S.C. County Chairman Quits McCain Campaign Over Immigration
John McCain’s Aiken County South Carolina chairman, David Nix, said he is leaving the campaign because of McCain's support for the immigration bill before Congress: "There is a very wide gulf between what I believe as a conservative South Carolina Republican and what Senator McCain is pushing for with this bill. It is an extremely weighty matter," Nix said.

Fox News Poll: Hillary Is Likable — But Not As Much As Others
Despite her reputation for being divisive, 56% of respondents in the latest Fox News poll think Hillary Clinton is likable, compared to only 41% who say she isn't. On the other hand, all the candidates score better than that, topped off by Barack Obama's 76%-13%. And a sign for possible worry: Hillary is seen as "honest and trustworthy" by only a 47%-45% margin. But then again, Hillary has been dragged through several nationally-watched general election campaigns, with all the mud that came with them — while the others haven't had to endure that sort of test. Hillary leads the Dem field overall with 36%, followed by Obama at 23%, non-candidate Al Gore with 14%, and John Edwards at 12%. Without Gore, the race becomes Hillary 41%, Obama 26%, Edwards 15%.

Poll: Edwards Barely Ahead In Home State
A new poll by Democratic polling firm Public Policy Polling shows John Edwards with a narrow lead in his home state of North Carolina. Edwards has 30% of the Democratic primary vote, followed by Hillary Clinton's 26%, and Barack Obama at 22%.

Romney Disparages Long-Term Iraq Presence
Mitt Romney said today he does not support a large permanent U.S. presence in Iraq. "Our objective would not be a Korea-type setting with 25-50,000 troops on a near permanent basis remaining in bases in Iraq," Romney said. "I think we would hope to turn Iraq security over to their own military and their own security forces, and if presence in the region is important for us than we have other options that are nearby."

House Passes Stem-Cell Research Bill
The House of Representatives voted 247-176 to increase funding for embryonic stem-cell research. The Senate has already okayed the bill, setting the course for the bill to be delivered to President Bush. The Hill notes that President Bush is widely expected to veto it, as he did on a similar measure last year. This new version also included funding for research into finding methods that could yield embryonic-like stem cells without actually killing embryos.

Poll: Americans Lean Dem By Wide Margin
The new AP-Ipsos poll has a fascinating number. Respondents were asked they identified as Democrats, Republicans or independents, and then independents were asked which way they lean. With leaners, 54% of Americans are Democrats, compared to only 36% Republicans — an almost 20-point Dem margin. This is likely a product of recent Washington scandals and mishandling of foreign affairs by Republicans, but it could very well turn into a full-fledged political realignment if the Democrats can sustain it.

In Nebraska, Hagel Challenger Declares
Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning (R) has formally kicked off his campaign for Senate against Chuck Hagel. Bruning will base his campaign on opposition to Hagel's votes against the Bush Administration on the Iraq War — a sort of "Mirror, Mirror" version of the Ned Lamont campaign. "Nebraskans want a leader who will stand with our troops and military commanders, who will enforce our laws and secure our borders," Bruning said in his campaign announcement.

Romney Internal Poll Shows Him With 17 Lead
The survey of likely caucus-goers taken at the end of last month shows Romney with a commanding lead over his rivals, including McCain, 17 points behind, who was likely hurt by his immigration proposal, and Giuliani, 20 points behind, who was likely hurt by Fred Thompson's entry into the race.

Reid: Tim Johnson Will Be Back By September
Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD) is due back in the Senate by September at the latest, according to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. "We are letting his doctors take the lead. He's getting stronger and stronger every day, but we don't have a definitive date," said Julianne Fisher, Johnson's spokeswoman. The Senator has reportedly recovered 90 percent of his speech ability.

Florida Representatives Join Hillary
Debbie Wasserman Shultz and Alcee Hastings, both Representatives from Florida, have joined Hillary Clinton's campaign as co-chairs.

In New Hampshire, Ex-Astronaut Officially Launches Senate Bid
Dartmouth medical professor and former astronaut Jay Buckey has officially declared his candidacy for the Senate in New Hampshire. Buckey opened campaign office in Lebanon, New Hampshire, and has hired Lebanon City councilor Karen Liot to be his campaign manager. Buckey acknowledged his outsider, first-time candidate status, but is not deterred: "If our system is at a point where you have to be either politically connected or well financed to be successful in this field, then we're in more trouble than I thought."

Longshot Tommy Thompson's Plan Thrown Off By Rudy/McCain Ames Pullout
Tommy Thompson's campaign plan has been built around visiting Iowa at least once every week, and hoping to break through with a strong showing the Iowa straw poll. But with both Rudy Giuliani and John McCain have pulling out out — rendering the event practically meaningless — Thompson says, "Now that they're not in, it doesn't have as much value, unless I can turn it into something. And that's what I'm still thinking about."

Big Shocker: Tancredo Won't Attend Spanish-Language Debate
"I can say with 100 percent certainty that we will not be attending," Tancredo spokesman Alan Moore told The Miami Herald, regarding a Spanish-language debate being held by Univision. Only Chris Dodd and Bill Richardson have accepted the invitation — they're the only ones who speak Spanish. Translators would be allowed at the debate, but one has to think that Spanish-speakers would have a natural advantage with the audience.


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It looks like the Republicans have their candidate and its Romney. It just remains to be seen how nasty McCain and Giuliani are going to be in their personal pique. Romney's already "moving to the center" on Iraq. Against Hillary Clinton, I think he would win. The race would look like the 2002 MA Governor's race with Romney against Shannon O'Brien, who even looks kinda like Hillary Clinton.

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Tancredo is such a hater.

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