The Second-Quarter Ends Today — Campaigns Pulling Out The Stops For Cash
The New York Times has a rundown of what the presidential candidates are doing this weekend to bring in the final infusions of cash for the second quarter. CNN also offers their take. The big question on the Dem side: Who will raise more, Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama?

Romney Campaign: We Won't Raise As Much As We Did The First Quarter
Mitt Romney's campaign, seeking to keep down expectations, said they will not match the $20 million dollars they brought in for the first quarter. The campaign said they have been focused on more on-the-ground campaigning to boost the candidate's profile, taking time away from fundraising.

McCain Announces Trip To Iraq
John McCain told reporters yesterday that he will be headed back to Iraq this week, where he will attend a re-enlistment ceremony for troops who have decided to sign up for another tour. "I would rather spend the 4th of July with the men and women in Iraq than anywhere else in the world," McCain said. VIP trips to Iraq are normally kept secret until the visit actually occurs, but McCain decided to make it publicly known for this one, his sixth trip to the country.

Fred Thompson's Short Speech Bombs In New Hampshire
At a much-awaited fundraiser for New Hampshire Republicans last night, his first major appearance in the state, Fred Thompson let down the crowd with a speech lasting only nine minutes. "He's got a nice voice. But there was nothing there," said one activist who attended. "He's for apple pie and motherhood. He's going to have to say what he's for."

For Fourth Of July, Obama Campaign Buys 500 Minor League Baseball Tickets
Barack Obama's campaign has bought 500 tickets to the Fourth of July game of the Iowa Cubs, the farm team for the Chicago Cubs. The tickets cost $9 apiece. Obama will attend the game, and will throw out the first ball if he is able to arrive on time.

Philadelphia Mayor John Street To Endorse Hillary
John Street, the term-limited outgoing Mayor of Philadelphia, will endorse Hillary Clinton on Monday. On the one hand, this is the endorsement of a high-ranking black elected official, which could help Hillary against Barack Obama. But on the other hand, Street is not enjoying too much popularity after two terms, and the voters in the Democratic primary to succeed him nominated an anti-Street reform candidate. "Endorsements mean very little, especially an endorsement by Street, who is very unpopular," said Larry Sabato. "I'd say it's a mixed blessing at best."

Edwards Campaign Expanding In New Hampshire
John Edwards' campaign has announced plans to open eight new offices in the key state of New Hampshire, accompanied by the hiring of 11 new staffers. In addition to their current offices in Concord and Manchester, new locations will be opened in Berlin, Dover, Derry, Keene, Laconia, Lebanon, Nashua and Portsmouth.

Tancredo: Immigration Bill Is Dead, But The Issue Remains
Tom Tancredo told a Des Moines crowd that although the White House's immigration bill is dead, "This issue is not gone. The problem is not gone." Tancredo said he will still be promoting his position on the issue: "I have been screaming it from the rooftops - enforce the law."

Bill Shaheen: Jeanne Likely To Decide On Senate Race Before September
Bill Shaheen, husband of former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), told The Hill that his wife will likely make a decision before September on whether to run for Senate, out of respect to the current candidates. A draft effort from high-profile Democrats in the state has been trying to recruit the former governor into the race, and Bill Shaheen had previously predicted that his wife would make her decision in September. Two recent polls have shown Sununu to be extremely vulnerable, with a re-elect rate of 31% in one, and Jeanne Shaheen beating him in the other by an astounding 57%-29% margin.

ABC News Asks: What Was It Like For Romney's Dog?
Although it's about an incident that happened nearly 25 years ago, the Mitt Romney dog story just isn't going away. ABC News has now asked a range of experts in physics and veterinary care exactly what it may have been like for Mitt Romney's dog on top of the car for 12 hours, protected only by a windshield in front of its carrier but buffeted by turbulent winds at the sides. The bottom line: It wasn't fun.

Webb To Ratchet Up Role Against Iraq War

Jim Webb is hoping to play a leading role in the Dem Congress' efforts to stall the war after the July 4th Congressional recess. Webb told a blogger conference call this afternoon that he plans to introduce an amendment to the must-pass defense authorization bill that will increase "dwell time," the amount of time troops stay at home before redeployment, to at least the amount of time active-duty troops spend deployed.


In April, Defense Secretary Bob Gates announced that to support the surge, all active-duty Army soldiers in the Middle East will spend 15 months deployed and only 12 months before the next deployment, in defiance of the Army's desired ratio of twice as much dwell time as deployment time.


Webb's move will be controversial: if attached to the defense bill, the White House will likely portray it as a backdoor measure to reduce troop levels, since the increased dwell time will prevent recently-returned troops from relieving units rotating out of Iraq. While Webb said he hadn't worked out the exact size of the force that would become available in Iraq if his amendment passes, he signaled his readiness for the White House's response.


"If it does result in fewer troops, I would support that, anyway," Webb said in response to a question from TPM. "We've reached the point where we've burned these troops out. Our operational policies change from month to month, and it's time for us to stop." --Spencer Ackerman


McCain Acknowledges He's Down Going Into Second-Quarter Deadline

John McCain's campaign is admitting in a fundraising letter that they may fall short of their goal of reaching $10 million for the quarter, imploring supporters to give more so they can meet it. Meanwhile, McCain told the Des Moines Register that he needs to improve in the key caucus state. "I think I've got a lot of work to do in Iowa," McCain said.

USA Today: Richardson Hauls $7 Million

Bill Richardson has raised $7 million in the second quarter, slightly more than the $6.2 million he raised last quarter.

Huckabee Bests His First Quarter

Mike Huckabee's campaign has announced that they have topped their first quarter fundraising total, which weighed in at a mere $500,000. Beating the previous quarter's haul will give them enough money to compete in the Ames straw poll, the candidate said today.

Dems Plan New Iraq Vote

Democratic Congressional leaders are planning new efforts to pass bills that would begin withdrawal from Iraq. "We have many arrows in our quiver, and we are sharpening them," House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said.

Bloomberg Had Previously Undisclosed Heart Surgery In 2000

New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who has been conspicuously tightening up his image as a potential presidential candidate while simultaneously denying that is one, has admitted to having heart surgery in 2000 before he ran for mayor. The surgery to insert two coronary arterial stents was not perviously disclosed.

Kucinich Picks Up Three New Co-Sponsors For Cheney Impeachment

Dennis Kucinich's drive to impeach Vice President Cheney has recruited three new co-sponsors: Democratic Congressmen Jim McDermott (WA), Hank Johnson (GA) and Keith Ellison (MN). On the other anti-Cheney front, only two Republican voted for Rahm Emanuel's failed amendment to strip funding from the VP's office: Walter Jones (NC) and Ron Paul (TX) — one a strong conservative who has broken with the Bush Administration on Iraq, the other the libertarian Republican candidate for president.

New Hampshire Makes Abortion Law History

Governor John Lynch (D-NH) today signed a repeal of the state's parental-notification abortion law, making his state the first ever to repeal a law requiring notification for a minor seeking an abortion. The repeal was widely expected after last year's elections, when Democrats took both houses of the state legislature with strong majorities.

Was Biden And Obama Exchange On AIDS Testing Homophobic?

Some discussion has popped up over an exchange between Joe Biden and Barack Obama last night, about AIDS testing. Alexander M. Belenky thinks Obama's retort to Biden — that he was tested for AIDS in Africa, accompanied by his wife — had a homophobic undertone. Meanwhile, Steve Benen has defended the remark. What do you think?

Don't miss this one. Just a few moments ago on CNN, Elizabeth Edwards explained Coulter to Wolf -- very, very slowly:

Look, Elizabeth Edwards' calm, steady and unrelenting attack on Ann Coulter is a great story, pure and simple. And clearly, the Edwards campaign knows this is a great story, which is why it's keeping up with this. The juxtaposition here of Elizabeth's placid presence with Ann's clowing is just great TV. And as I've noted before, it's part of one of the more interesting subplots in Campaign 2008: The Edwards campaign's decision to aggressively target the right very publicly in a way that the other campaigns aren't doing right now.

This is a strategy that's partly an outgrowth of the story that the campaign is trying to tell about the newly liberated, newly feisty, and genuinely progressive John Edwards, as he describes himself. It's also partly a strategy of necessity, a bid to stake out turf that he has the best shot at claiming. And yeah, Edwards is raising money off of it. Fine.

But whatever the intent or strategic goal, what's happening here is important and noteworthy. Elizabeth is making some key points, in a very high profile way, that many of us have been yelling about in the wilderness for some time now. And through poise and sheer force of will she's compelling people to pay attention. Hopefully it will awaken a slumbering TV exec or two. Good to see CNN picking up on it, and my bet is more big news orgs will be lavishing lots of attention on Elizabeth Edwards in the very near future.

Some discussion has popped up over an exchange between Joe Biden and Barack Obama last night, about AIDS testing. Alexander M. Belenky thinks Obama's retort to Biden — that he was tested for AIDS in Africa, accompanied by his wife — had a homophobic undertone. Meanwhile, Steve Benen has defended the remark. What do you think?

As we've reported here before, Fred Thompson continues to play coy about running for President, even though the man obviously is a candidate for President -- he's already got a campaign staff in place, is beginning to campaign, and has even all but said he's running.

Well, it turns out that Thompson's studied coyness may be more than just irksome and phony: It may also be a violation of election law.

The Hill reports:

Former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.) may be violating Federal Election Commission (FEC) laws by failing to report funds raised in the second quarter, which ends tomorrow — giving his probable presidential campaign a one-month fundraising advantage over his rivals in the third quarter.

Republican or Democratic rivals could file a complaint against Thompson if he enters the 2008 presidential race and it becomes apparent that he spent the month of June campaigning rather than wrestling with the decision to run.

And as we've seen, Thompson did spend some of June campaigning.

John Edwards' campaign is either playing the expectations game brilliantly — or Camp Edwards is in big, big trouble.

"Thanks to you, we're within striking distance of our $9 million fundraising goal with just under 48 hours to go," Edwards said in an email to supporters today.

Nine million dollars actually happens to be more than Howard Dean raised in the second quarter of 2003, when he took the lead in the Dem field. But in today's environment it's simply a paltry total, particularly when compared to Hillary's predicted $27 million and Obama's potentially higher fundraising tally.

Read more »

The Democrats are now using the accusation that Mitt Romney strapped the family dog on top of their car over 20 years ago against him. Democratic National Committee spokesman Damien LaVera said this in a statement about a rash of minor scandals in the past week involving people connected to his campaign:

“The only thing sicker than smooth talking Mitt Romney’s poor dog is his refusal to provide the American people the openness and accountability they expect from their next president. The Romney campaign may be disintegrating into a wacky cast of characters and bizarre stories, but the truly disturbing thing is how thoroughly it echoes the Bush Administration’s consistent pattern of putting itself above the law. If Romney thinks he can win by blindly defending scandal-plagued cronies, skirting ethics rules, and surrounding himself with shady donors and fundraisers, the American people have a clear message for his (sic): That dog won’t hunt."

As people in Washington have been saying for weeks now, the whole town is waiting with bated breath for September's Iraq-war progress report from General David Petraeus. Depending on what it says, that report will either serve as a short-term bulwark against Democratic calls for withdrawal or will make withdrawal a politically unstoppable force.

But it may be that an accompanying assessment of Iraq's political scene, to be delivered by U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker, will actually prove to be the more significant one -- in a way that could give a crucial political boost to the antiwar cause.

Here's why: Some recent comments Crocker made to a reporter that have gone almost entirely unnoticed suggest that he is on the verge of concluding in his report that the Iraqi political scene is flatlining and that there's really no hope for political reconciliation. And if he does say this come September, it would likely undercut Petraeus's expected plea for more time to prosecute the surge. It would also give antiwar critics much more ammo to pressure wavering Republicans in Congress into abandoning Bush and the war.

Read more »

As noted here before, one of the more interesting sub-plots of Campaign 2008 is the extent to which the candidates are all trying to outdo each other with new and snazzy online video innovations.

Now Bill and Hillary have just come up with their next entry in this contest. The Clintons, who are campaigning in Iowa next week, are planning to deliver personal reports, on video, directly to viewers from the road in Iowa:

"Introducing HillCam," the vid says. "Spend a few minutes every day next week with the Clintons as they travel across Iowa. Totally unvarnished. Completely unprecedented."

Sure, why not? The more video, the merrier. The Sopranos thing was a surprise hit, and seemed to accomplish the campaign's obvious goal of humanizing her and Bill in keeping with the campaign's "you don't know the real Hillary" theme. If this latest does indeed come across as "totally unvarnished," as promised, it could prove equally effective.

This really is one strange campaign, isn't it?

Oh, man -- serious, serious trouble ahead for Mitt Romney's campaign: The story of his alleged mistreatment of the family dog is going national in a big way.

The Associated Press is now running a story with what may be the most politically devastating headline imaginable:

Just in case you haven't been following this, the gist here is that in 1983, Romney -- according to The Boston Globe -- put the family dog in a dog carrier and attached it to his car's roof. Though Romney apparently built a windshield for the carrier, the story has gained momentum, and before long it was picked up by Time magazine, which accused him of a "cruel canine vacation."

Yesterday things got so bad that Romney was forced to address the scandal while speaking to reporters in Pittsburgh. His rather creative defense was that "my dog likes fresh air."

"He scrambled up there every time we went on trips," Romney also said. "He got it all by himself and enjoyed it."

Talk about a man-bites-dog tale.

Is there any doubt that this AP story will be in countless small papers across the country tomorrow? There's no way Romney recovers from this one. The man's toast.

Update: Editor's note: The prediction that Romney's finished over this wasn't meant to be taken literally.

A new poll from Mason-Dixon via McClatchy:

More than half of Americans say they wouldn't consider voting for Sen. Hillary Clinton for president if she becomes the Democratic nominee, according to a new national poll made available to McClatchy Newspapers and NBC News.

The poll by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research found that 52 percent of Americans wouldn't consider voting for Clinton, D-N.Y.

This of course doesn't bode well for her success in a general election contest. However, it's worth noting that since she has consistently had the highest name recognition of all the candidates, voters may be relying on old impressions of her and not the latest positioning coming out of her campaign.

With approval of Congress dropping sharply in polls, we've been waiting for a survey that tries to gauge public attitudes towards Congress in a bit of detail -- such as, where do people fall on the performance of each party, for instance.

Now we have some new numbers from a new CNN poll that takes a few baby steps in this direction. The verdict? The public is pretty sour on the Dem leadership's performance -- but is still happy to have Dems in control, views the party favorably, and plans to reelect Dems in 2008. And the Republicans? Well, they're still in the soup.

Key findings:

* 51% view the Democratic Party favorably; only 36% look favorably on the GOP.

* 57% think it's good for the Country that Dems run Congress.

* Only 42% approve of what Dem leaders have done thus far; 49% disapprove.

The poll also suggests that right now Dems still hold an advantage heading into the 2008 Congressional races. Fifty-three percent say they'd vote for a Dem candidate in their district if the elections were held today; 41% would cast their vote for the Republican.

Influential Iowa columnist David Yepsen of the Des Moines Register calls the debate for Hillary in glowing terms:

Clinton was crisp, cogent and methodical in her answers. She understood better than any of the other candidates the need for terse answers when so many candidates are given so little time in which to answer questions.

It’s more than just a debating skill. American presidents lead the nation through television appearances, and Clinton’s performance Thursday night suggests she can do that. She showed she has mastered the ability to put a lot of information into a few seconds on the tube.

In a key footnote, Yepsen claims her performance will help her in Iowa, where she's trailing John Edwards in polls: "In Iowa, where she’s not been doing as well as she is across the country, it should help her break away from Barack Obama and try to overtake John Edwards."

The Associated Press, reporting on the deaths of five more American soldiers in Iraq, adds this:

"The deaths brought to 99 the number of U.S. troops to die in Iraq this month, according to an Associated Press count. The toll for the past three months — 329 — made it the deadliest such period for GIs since the war began in March 2003."

In the face of such figures, it's getting harder and harder to imagine how war supporters will be able to continue asserting that the surge could still succeed — or even that it is already succeeding.

• In case you missed last night's Democratic debate on PBS, online video can be found here. A transcript is not yet available.

• A brief commentary: Once this debate switched, about midway through, to limiting answers to a paltry 30 seconds, it became next to impossible for any candidate to be able to say anything complex, interesting, or even just surprising. This situation was a consequence of multiple factors, from the large crowd of candidates to the relatively short 90-minute time slot for the debate, and the fact that the crowd was permitted to applaud, taking up more precious time. In addition, the hosts took up a large amount of time at the beginning of the debate with their own social commentaries. The candidates were not actually able to start talking until about 15 minutes in.

• MSNBC's First Read counted only eight questions and reports Bill Richardson spoke for the most time:

Richardson 8:15
Obama 7:42
Dodd 7:25
Clinton 7:20
Biden 6:58
Edwards 6:36
Kucinich 6:29
Gravel 6:08

• An exasperated Chris Dodd eventually got fed up with the short-answer, game-show like format, and delivered the best line of the night: "I was gonna say, Tavis, I'll take global warming for $600." Tavis Smiley replied, "And I was gonna say, were you Paris Hilton, you'd have an hour. But you're not."

• According to a focus group presided over by longtime GOP pollster Frank Luntz, Hillary Clinton came out the winner of the debate by a landslide. On the other hand, the verdict from this debate might not be worth much — the same focus group participants crowded around Barack Obama after the debate, with one yelling, "We'll see you in the White House."

• Chris Dodd, like most candidates, lashed out at the Supreme Court decision blocking the use of race as a criteria for assigning students to different schools. "To say today that you're going to exclude race as a means of allowing for the diversity in our communities is a major step backwards and as president of the United States, I would use whatever tool is available to me to see to it that we reverse this decision today."

• Hillary Clinton responded to a question about whether the "color line" exists in America affirmatively. “You can look at this stage and see an African American, a Latino, a woman contesting for the presidency of the United States,” she said. “But there is so much left to be done."

• Barack Obama garnered applause for his unfavorable comparison of the recent Supreme Court decision with the historic Brown v. Board of Education decision. "If it were not for them," he said of the liberal Warren Court that handed down Brown, "I would not be standing here."

• Joe Biden noted that some people said he was being too tough when he voted against the confirmation of Chief Justice John Roberts. "The problem is the rest of us were not tough enough," Biden said. "They have turned the court upside down," he added, referring to both Roberts and Samuel Alito.

• John Edwards suggested policy specifics like having Medicaid cover drugs for AIDS, vowing to have an adivisor report to him daily on recontruction of New Orleans, and recommending Congress roll back the President Bush's tax cuts. "People who have done well ought to have more of a responsibility to pay back," he said.

• Barack Obama made a somewhat bold move within the culturally conservative black community: He specifically named the homophobia common among blacks as a contributing factor to the spread of HIV.

• Joe Biden said it would be great if more people set an example by getting tested for HIV, praising Obama for doing just that, which prompted Obama to interrupt. "Tavis, Tavis, Tavis, I just got to make clear — I got tested with Michelle when we were in Kenya in Africa," Obama said. "So I don't want any confusion here about what's going on." Biden added — over the crowd's macabre laughter — that he was tested because he's received blood transfusions.

• Hillary Clinton garnered some of the loudest applause from the largely black audience with the line: "Let me just put this in perspective: If HIV/AIDS were the leading cause of death of white women between the ages of 25 and 34, there would be an outraged outcry in this country,” she said.

• John Edwards declared: "This issue of poverty in America is the cause of my life. It's the reason I started a poverty center at the University of North Carolina. It's the reason I've been working so hard on this issue." The invocation of the poverty center, relating it to his passion on the issue, may be a rebuttal of recent allegations in The New York Times, that he started the center mainly to benefit his presidential aspirations.

• A careful viewer can see that Barack Obama said the Bush tax cuts need to be "lapsed" — as in, not renewed when they expire in 2011. Note that he did not explicitly call for them to be repealed sooner than that.

• Dennis Kucinich delivered a line that was sharply critical of the Bill Clinton years, a rarity in a Democratic debate: "A Democratic administration started NAFTA. A Democratic administration will end it."

• On the final question of Darfur, Bill Richardson defended his much-criticized proposal, offered at the last Democratic debate on CNN, to boycott the Olympics if China does not take action: "I believe fighting genocide is more important that sports."

• The debate ended with a whimper. "What? No mic?" Mike Gravel asked, as his audio wasn't working. "You can't hear me? You can hear me now?" Joe Biden patted him on the back for that one.

• Dennis Kucinich remarked, "If Darfur had oil, this administration would be occupying it already." Jim Geraghty over at National Review writes, "Sudan has oil, you doofus. That's why China deals with them."

The Democrats Meet Tonight On PBS

Just a reminder: Tune in to PBS tonight at 9 p.m. ET, for a Democratic debate focusing on minority issues.

Wheelchair Executive About To Run Against Dem Chris Carney — Despite Settling Explosive Lawsuit Alleging Defective Product

Dan Meuser, CEO of wheelchair manufacturer Pride Mobility USA, is poised to run for Congress as a Republican against freshman Democrat Chris Carney, who won a GOP-leaning district last year. One potential problem: Meuser's company has settled a contentious lawsuit over the death of an elderly man using their wheelchair, in which plaintiffs alleged that a defective battery caused a fire. From the Monterey County Herald, January 9, 2007: "Had the case gone to trial, according to court records and statements in court, jurors may have heard evidence that Pride Mobility was aware of at least 18 other fires in its wheelchairs and scooters with identical battery packs since 2002. Ten of those fires destroyed dwellings and five were fatal." (From Nexis)

Helen Thomas Speaks Out About Washington Press Corps

Salon's Glenn Greenwald today posted a compelling interview with veteran reporter Helen Thomas that really is a must-read. Relatedly, a number of liberal bloggers have been pushing Greenwald's new book, A Tragic Legacy: How a Good vs. Evil Mentality Destroyed the Bush Presidency, helping drive it to the top of Amazon's nonfiction charts. As they've been pointing out, if book sales determine whether you get booked on cable chat shows, when is Chris Matthews going to invite Greenwald on his show? The book is for sale right here. --gs

GOP Candidates Skip Hispanic Conference

Democratic presidential candidates will head to Walt Disney World on Saturday for a forum with top Hispanic politicians from around the country. The Republican forum was canceled after only one candidate, Rep. Duncan Hunter, agreed to attend. "The Republican candidates have blown off Hispanics in Florida," said Juan Zapata, a state representative in from the key swing state, where Hispanics have typically voted for the GOP in larger numbers, against the trend in the country as a whole.

Conservative Critic Admits It: Ann Coulter Is One Of Our Movement's Leaders

A leading conservative media critic admits that Ann Coulter is one of the conservative movement's current leaders.

Brownback Voted For Immigration Bill Cloture Before He Voted Against It

During today's cloture vote on the immigration bill, Sam Brownback made an interesting turn for a GOP presidential candidate. First he voted "Aye" on the cloture motion ... and then came back 11 minutes later to switch his vote to "No." Brownback now says this was a completely intentional, symbolic gesture: "I wanted to signal that I am supportive of comprehensive immigration reform, but that now is not the time and this is not the bill."

Dinkins Endorses Hillary

Former New York City Mayor David Dinkins has endorsed Hillary Clinton for president. On the one hand, he was the first and so far the only black mayor of New York City, so his support could be a boon to Hillary's efforts to reach out to black voters, who might be inclined to support Barack Obama. On the other hand, his single term was a tumultuous one, ending in defeat from none other than Rudy Giuliani, so his endorsement may not influence many votes outside of New York, where Hillary is already running strong.

Lieberman Asks For Patience On Surge

Senator Joe Lieberman, reasserting himself as the most pro-war Democrat-turned-Independent-Democrat, held a high-profile press conference today in which he asked Congress and the public to have patience with the troop surge now in full swing in Iraq. He asserted that the surge has the enemy "on the run" and that he trusts the information he gets from the military. "We've got to think not about the next election but the next generation," he said.

Popularity Of Hillary's Sopranos Spoof Didn't Reach GOP, Independents

A new survey shows that the wildly popular video Hillary Clinton made announcing her campaign song wasn't received as well by Republicans or independents, a contrast to an ad like Bill Richardson's latest touting his resume that scored high marks with everyone. “The immense partisan divide over the content of this ad reflects the difficulties Sen. Clinton may have with the general electorate," said Chris Wilson, chief executive of Wilson Research Strategies, which conducted the survey.

Romney Once Wanted To Scrap Ag Department, End Farm Subsidies

A video of Mitt Romney speaking at a 1994 debate that shows the Senate candidate calling for a reduction in farm subsidies has been showing up in inboxes of Iowa Republicans, according to the Sioux City Journal. Other videos show him calling for the "virtual elimination" of the Agriculture Department.

Well, this is nice -- a conservative is claiming that Ann Coulter is a "leader" of the contemporary conservative movement.

Brent Bozell, head of the winger media "watchdog" group Media Research Center, has emailed out a press release attacking the big news orgs for their coverage of Ann Coulter's now-infamous remark about John Edwards and terrorist assassination plots.

This nugget in the release jumped out at us:

“But Ann Coulter is owed an apology from those outlets, including NBC’s Nightly News, The Washington Post and CNN’s American Morning, which have mis-reported her comments. And conservatives, take note: Today it’s Coulter, tomorrow it may be you. The left has demonstrated that it will stop at nothing, including flat-out dishonesty, to undermine our leaders.”

Conservatives, behold Ann Coulter -- one of your "leaders." That's what a whole bunch of nutty lefties have been saying is the problem all along! Also note the description of NBC, WaPo and CNN as "the left." Wow, the left is really kicking ass right about now.

John Amato responds to Bozell here.

One other quick point. Today Ann Coulter responded to the whole fracas with a new column ridiculing MSNBC's Chris Matthews:

I doubled the ratings of the lowest-rated cable news show on Tuesday by agreeing to go on for a full hour to promote my new paperback version of "Godless" -- a mistake I won't make again.

Memo to MSNBC, NBC, et al: This woman just spat in your face. Might be time to stop giving her a platform now.

It's no fun being Ryan Crocker. You wake up in the morning and things explode around you in the Green Zone. You spend your day haggling with recalcitrant Iraqi politicians and fending off briefing requests from panicked officials at the White House. And even though you're only the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, charged with delivering your own progress report to Congress in September on the political aspects of the surge, the only one reporters dropping into Baghdad want to interview is Petraeus, Petraeus, Petraeus.

Maybe standing in the shadow of America's favorite general is getting to Crocker. When Time's Joe Klein visited Iraq recently, he found Crocker in something of a frustrated mood, thanks to the government of Nouri al-Maliki:

The Iraqi government is irresolute to the point of near collapse. It is nowhere near to figuring out how to make a political deal amongst the contending parties that might lead to stability. "All this attention on benchmarks has actually been bad for the process," Ambassador Crocker says. "We've wasted so much time and energy on getting a hydrocarbon law" — that is, a law to divide oil profits amongst the ethnic and religious parties, likely to be approved soon — "but it has very little to do with getting a functioning government in place." The truth is, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's government is puttering along, happily dependent on the U.S. "There are no consequences for them when they screw up," Crocker says. "Whatever's wrong, we take care of it."

Read more »

It's not every day that Hillary's campaign attacks specific GOP candidates, but today, Camp Hillary has just uncorked a blast at Fred Thompson for his rather clumsy remarks about Cuban immigrants in South Carolina yesterday.

Thompson expressed his opposition to the immigration bill in Congress and, speaking of Cubans, added: "I don't imagine they're coming here to bring greetings from Castro. We're living in the era of the suitcase bomb."

Now Hillary's campaign manager, Patti Solis-Doyle, who is herself Latina, has just emailed out the following:

“For many decades, Cubans have been forced to leave the island, risking their lives to escape Fidel Castro’s brutal dictatorship in search of freedom and opportunity. It is simply wrong to equate people fleeing from communism with terrorists.“

There's been some talk in Hillaryland about a more public role for Solis-Doyle, but until now she's done mostly interviews in the Spanish media as part of the Hillary camp's outreach to Latino voters. Maybe that's changing.

This has to be a first. In its new poll, Fox News asked what may well be the ultimate in jingoistic, rally-around-the-flag questions — and the Democrats came out on top.

If there is an all-out war between the United States and various radical Muslim groups worldwide, who would you rather have in charge — Democrats or Republicans?

Democrats	41%
Republicans	38%
Both the same (not listed)	9%
Don't know (not listed)	12%

Granted, the result is within the poll's three-point margin of error, so we can't say with certainty that the Dems have a lead here. But really, this bespeaks truly terrible times for the GOP.

The question of which party the people would trust more to lead World War III against a global coalition of Islamofascists should have been a gimme for the Republicans. But they couldn't even manage to get a plurality. Pathetic.

Another key number in the new Fox News poll we noted below: Bush's approval rating sank to 31%.

That's the lowest ever in Fox polling. Yes, in Fox polling. His previous low was 33%.

Bush can take solace from one thing, however: He's doing way better than Paris Hilton. She checks in with a favorability rating of seven percent.

A new Fox News poll released today appears to show a sizeable expansion in Hillary's national lead over Barack Obama. It finds:

Clinton 42% Obama 19% Gore 14% Edwards 10%

That's a 23-point lead for Hillary -- up 10 points from Fox's poll in early June, which found Hillary with a 13 point edge over Obama, 36%-23%.

Of course, let's not forget all the usual caveats: National numbers aren't terribly significant; the first votes won't be cast for many, many months; and this is one of roughly a gazillion polls.

Indeed, that last caveat always keeps us returning to this nifty chart over at Pollster.com, which summarizes all the Presidential race polls from recent months.

Update: A Hillary supporter writes in to say that yesterday's Quinnipiac poll showed her with sizeable leads in key states, too.

Incoming!

National Dem strategists in charge of winning House seats in 2008 are unleashing a five-day radio ad buy over July 4 hammering select Republican lawmakers for having a crappy record on veterans issues.

The DCCC just announced that the radio ads -- which will be accompanied by a blitz of web videos, telephone calls and emails to voters -- will run all next week, coinciding with the period that lawmakers are in their home districts on recess. No word on the size of the buy.

You can listen to the radio ad right here.

The onslaught will target 14 select Republicans -- a list of them is after the jump.

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Mitt Romney becomes the first GOP candidate to weigh in on the immigration bill's crash-and-burn. And he does so with a little fib. Okay, it's not quite a fib. Let's call it a "fiblet":

"The immigration bill failed because the politicians in Washington are out of touch with the American people. The voice of the people is loud and clear –- secure the border, enforce the law and no special deal for permanent residency or citizenship for illegals. America will always welcome legal immigration, but as a nation we also insist on the rule of law."

Maybe the "politicians in Washington are out of touch with the American people," as Romney says, but that isn't indicated in any way, shape or form by the failure of the immigration bill. Indeed, multiple polls showed that only small minorities supported the thing. If anything, the Senate did what the American people wanted on this one.

Another day, another fiblet.

Boy, it looks like the pressure from Elizabeth Edwards is really getting to Ann Coulter. Seems to be really rattling her badly. Give this a watch, from MSNBC this morning:

Woah.

Incidentally, the Coulter column she plugged here as "one of the greatest columns ever written" is the one where she suggested that John Edwards was politically exploiting his own son's death and using it like a "bumper sticker."

Update: John Aravosis really takes Coulter apart. Key quote:

She walks around calling people "fags," mocking their dead children, wishing that they were murdered, then when people respond by saying "uh, you're kind of mean," Ann flips out over the level of venom that's directed against her.

His full takedown here.

Hillary reveals what are expected to be her second quarter fundraising totals:

We expect to bring in about what we did in the First Quarter, or slightly more, which should put us in the range of $27 million. To put that figure in some perspective, it is more than any Democrat has ever raised in the second quarter of the "off" year. While that figure is record setting, we do expect Senator Obama to significantly outraise us this quarter.

The prediction about Obama may have something to do with the fact that the Obama campaign announced this morning that it has received donations from almost 250,000 people. More soon.

A lot of people have been writing of late about the meaninglessness of Michael Bloomberg's empty denunciations of partisanship and the predictable embrace of them by Beltway elites. But Jon Chait really nails it:

"Any successful elected executive knows that real results are more important than partisan battles and that good ideas should take precedence over rigid adherence to any particular political ideology." So declared New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg upon renouncing his membership in the GOP last week. The problem, of course, is that people don't agree on what "real results" or "good ideas" are. Cutting taxes? Raising taxes? Funding stem-cell research? Banning stem-cell research? This is exactly why we have partisan battles in the first place.

You would think that anybody who failed to grasp this would be urged to study a high school civics textbook. Instead, Bloomberg is being urged to run for president and lauded for his statesmanship.

Bloomberg has thus become the most prominent example of what you could call partisanship scolds. These are people who believe that disagreement is the central problem in U.S. politics, that both parties are to blame in equal measure, and that rejecting party ties or ideology is synonymous with the demonstration of virtue. While partisanship scolds believe that they stand in bold contrast to Washington, they are probably more heavily represented among the Beltway elite than any other demographic.

This puts me in mind of one of the more irksome formulations of this sort, one frequently bandied about by Joe Lieberman: The notion that we should put the good of "country before party." Well, duh. Thing is, people who are partisans tend to think that the success of their party is the best way to ensure the success of the country. That's what makes them partisans in the first place.

There's a very simple reason that the partisanship scolds don't understand this: They're generally not interested in the actual policies being advocated by the folks they revere as nonpartisan heroes. Let's take David Broder as an example, since he's probably the ultimate partisanship scold. It's very clear from his paeans to various nonpartisan demigods such as Joe Lieberman that what Lieberman is actually advocatinghe isn't particularly interested in what Lieberman is actually advocating.

He's primarily interested in the theatrics of independence. In this sense, it's actually the partisanship scolds who are putting the empty idea of nonpartisanship before country.

Hillary is first out of the box with a statement on the SCOTUS decision this morning that rejected school diversity plans that take account of students' race. The decision could imperil efforts to create racial diversity in hundreds of school districts across the country. Hillary:

"Today, the Court turned its back on the promise of Brown vs. Board of Education that students of different racial backgrounds deserve an opportunity to attend school together...

"Once again, the Roberts Court has shown its willingness to erode core constitutional guarantees. It is a set back for all of us who are on the long march toward racial equality and the building of a stronger more unified America."

Her full statement after the jump.

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Okay, we have gotten so many queries about this that we feel compelled to clear things up.

We are not -- repeat, not -- the Greg Sargent from New Hampshire who has just been named to Hillary's national Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgendered steering committee. We are not a Hillary supporter. We are not gay. We are not bisexual. Needless to say, we are not a lesbian. Oh, and we are not transgendered, either. (Not that there's anything wrong...oh, never mind.)

Hope that clarifies things. Thank you for listening.

Update: And with this post, this blog is ditching the royal "we" forever.

Wow. Two new polls show that first-term Senator John Sununu of New Hampshire is extremely vulnerable to a challenge in 2008 — particularly one from former governor Jeanne Shaneen, whom he narrowly defeated back in 2002.

The first poll, from the American Research Group, shows Shaheen beating Sununu by an astonishing 57%-29% margin.

Meanwhile, the new poll from Suffolk University finds that Sununu's numbers are in truly awful shape. Only 31% of respondents said he deserves re-election, versus 47% who said they would be for someone else.

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Dem Debate Tonight — Focusing On Minority Issues
Tavis Smiley, host of tonight's Democratic debate, said he will focus the candidates on issues important to black Americans. The panel of questioners will be made entirely of minority journalists but, Smiley insisted, the event is not "tailor-made" for Barack Obama, the only black candidate. "Barack Obama could absolutely tank," Smiley told The Washington Post, adding that although he considers Obama a friend he has also given advice to Hillary Clinton. "I've tried to encourage her to be more open, and I've asked her, 'Do you have a soul?'" The 90-minute debate starts at 9 p.m. ET on PBS.

Expert: Hillary Pollster Should Answer For Testing Negative Messages About Obama, Edwards
Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal offers an interesting analysis of our story saying that Hillary pollster Mark Penn has been testing negative messages about Barack Obama and John Edwards, including polling on Edwards' $400 haircut. On the one hand the calls do not constitute push-polling, Blumenthal says, but the Clinton campaign should still take some responsibility for them. "Don't put anything in a message testing questionnaire that you are not willing to publicly defend," Blumenthal writes. "If the Clinton campaign is willing to test the negative messages alleged above, they ought to be willing to take ownership of those messages and the tactics they imply. If not, then we are all left to draw our own conclusions."

Poll: Hispanics Increasingly Democratic, Favor Hillary
Three quarters of Hispanics say they are Democrats, according to a new poll, despite the fact that 40 percent voted for Bush in 2004. The poll also finds that Hispanic Democrats favor Hillary Clinton in large numbers, 59 percent. Immigration reform is a possible reason and campaigns are increasingly looking to Hispanics for votes.

Poll: Republicans Favor Universal Healthcare, Gays In Military
Although they increasingly identify themselves as conservative, about half of Republicans say they support universal healthcare and allowing gays in the military, according to a new poll that challenges the conventional wisdom of GOP value voters. Forty percent say they are opposed to those policies.

Edwards Reaches Out To Gay Vote In Los Angeles
The Advocate reports that John Edwards toured the Los Angeles Gay and Lesbian Center — the only presidential candidate thus far to accept the center's invitation. His tour included a visit to the Jeffrey Goodman Special Care Clinic, and a visit to a transitional living program for homeless youth. The center's CEO, Lorri L. Jean, implored the candidate on the issue of gay marriage: "I am yearning for the day when a viable presidential candidate — a candidate like you — will have courage to lead and to clearly and unequivocally say that my people are also entitled to participate in the promise of America, including the freedom [to] marry. I ask you to seriously consider being that person."

South Carolina GOP Chair: I Will "Definitely" Move Up Primary Date
In the continuing arms race over primary dates, South Carolina GOP chairman Katon Dawson is saying he will "definitely" move up his party's primary from its current January 29 date to some time earlier. Sources believe he could pick January 15. If this keeps up, then New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner would almost certainly move his state's primary to an even earlier date, and there might be similar changes to the Iowa caucus.

New York Dems Look To DC As They Vie For State Senate Majority
New York Democrats are looking to Washington as they try to retake the state Senate, pitching their state as a possible national model for innovative policy ideas. State Senate Minority Leader Malcolm Smith was in D.C. this week to meet with national party leaders on Capitol Hill to raise money and offer his own help in sending more Democrats from New York to Congress. The key incentive for Washington Dems: If their New York co-partisans take full control of the legislature, then they can control the redistricting process and make the current 23-6 House delegation even more lopsided in the party's favor.

This is really something. From the Associated Press early this morning comes this:

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has improved on his stunning support in the race for campaign cash, raising his total number of donors to nearly 250,000 people in the first six months of the year.

The freshman Illinois senator impressed rivals in the first quarter when he reported 104,000 donors, but he surpassed the mark in the second quarter with 138,000 more opening their wallets, the campaign told The Associated Press.

The campaign won't say yet how much the donors have given, but the large number suggests their fundraising will be competitive with the $25.7 million he raised in the first quarter. A campaign official speaking on the condition of anonymity tried to tamp down expectations by disclosing that the average donation in the second quarter is likely to be less than the roughly $247 in the first quarter.

With the campaigns dueling to set expectations in advance of reporting their second quarter fundraising totals, the Obama campaign has been working hard to focus public attention on the number of donors he has rather than the amount he raises. While campaigns obviously want to have as much cash stockpiled as possible, the former metric is in many ways a more meaningful measure of support than the latter, because it isn't skewed by the efforts of the big fundraisers for one candidate or another.

Just yesterday, for instance, the Obama camp sent out an email to supporters containing this:

Raising money is essential, especially right now, but what will make our campaign a success is the way we do it. Our funding comes from a grassroots movement of individuals giving what they can afford. And the numbers we care about reflect two things: people and passion.

Here's what really matters:

* The number of people donating to the movement
* The total number of donations people make to show their commitment

It's as simple as that. It’s the people that count.

Meanwhile, Hillary's advisers tell the Associated Press that she will match the $26 million she raised in the last quarter.

Obama Camp: Warren Buffett Likes Us Too

One day after he held a $1 million fundraiser for Hillary Clinton, Warren Buffett, the world's third-richest man and a renowned investor, is now being touted as a possible supporter by Barack Obama's campaign. A spokesman says Buffett gave the maximum $4,600 to Obama in April — after the close of the first quarter and therefore not previously released publicly — and may soon be hosting a fundraiser for the campaign as well.

Richardson Calls For Unconditional Talks With Iran

Bill Richardson said today he favors "broad, bilateral, unconditional negotiations with Iran — with all subjects open for discussion."

Poll: Gore Leading In New Hampshire

Ben Smith flags a new Suffolk University poll finding that a whopping 32% of the state's Democrats would back Al Gore, making him the leader in the Democratic primary there. Hillary Clinton would be particularly damaged by his hypothetical entry, losing a quarter of her support. Without Gore, Clinton leads with 37% of likely Democratic voters, leading Barack Obama at 19%, and John Edwards and Bill Richardson, both at 9%.

Novak: GOP Targeting Landrieu, Aided By Hurricane Katrina

Robert Novak reports in his latest column that Republicans are getting ready to target Senator Mary Landrieu (D-LA) in 2008, but just need to do some more work to recruit a candidate. "Of course part of the thinking, voiced publicly by no one," Novak says cautiously, "is that the state's black population in New Orleans largely disappeared with Hurricane Katrina, significantly diminishing the base vote for Landrieu." A top prospect is state Treasurer John N. Kennedy, a Democrat who ran unsuccessfully for Senate in 2004, and who has reportedly been courted to switch parties for the race by Karl Rove himself.

DCCC Supported Candidate Facing Possible Primary Challenger In North Carolina

Larry Kissel, who lost in North Carolina's 8th district by 329 votes last year and is supported by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee for this cycle, is facing a possible primary challenge from state Rep. Rick Glazier. The DCCC has not shied away from involving itself in primary races and has given a lot of fundraising support to Kissel this year.

Wyoming Politicians Still Sizing Up Senate Race

Roll Call reports that Wyoming politicians of both parties are looking at the Senate seat now held by appointee John Barrasso (R), and the upcoming election in 2008. Some of the Republicans who sought appointment are standing down in deference of the incumbent Barrasso, but others do not view him as a normal incumbent. "That is an interim appointment, so that is a different circumstance," said former state Treasurer Cynthia Lummis (R), who is looking at the race.

In Tennessee, Son Of Former Dem Governor Considering Bid For Senate

Mike McWherter, a businessman and the son of popular former two-term Governor Ned McWherter (D-TN), is considering a bid for Senate in 2008 against incumbent GOPer Lamar Alexander. Mike McWherter has recently spoken to Democratic leaders in Washington, sizing up a potential candidacy. "Should Mike decide to run, he would be a terrific candidate for the U.S. Senate," said state Democratic Party chairman Gray Sasser.

Tancredo Sends Lettuce To Chertoff

Tom Tancredo sent a head of lettuce and a fruit basket to Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff, in a colorful rebuttal to Chertoff's remarks that "we’re living in a world in which lettuce and fruit is not being picked because we are enforcing the law." Tancredo responded, "The administration has taken hyperbole to a whole new level this time. They are now trying to convince the public that without amnesty, the American people are going to starve?"

Rudy's Campaign Boasts Of Visit To Pat Robertson's University

Rudy Giuliani's campaign prominently featured on their Web site his visit to Pat Robertson's Regent University, and they link to a New York Sun article detailing his positive reception there. We can't help but think it an odd sight, to see Rudy Giuliani hosted by the man who agreed on television with Jerry Falwell, that the 9/11 attacks were a punishment for America's sinful ways.

There is nothing more central right now to Rudy's efforts to snooker social conservatives into overlooking his pro-abortion and pro-gay rights past than his frequent and dissembling attacks on Bill Clinton's terrorism record.

Again and again in recent days, he's blasted Bill as soft on terror and warned about returning to the allegedly anti-terror mistakes of the 1990s.

But as we've been pointing out here regularly, Rudy's attacks on Bill amount to the rankest sort of dissembling -- even by Rudy's rapidly plummeting standards. After all, as we keep saying again and again, Rudy said as recently as last September that Bill shouldn't be faulted as soft on terror.

Now this glaring and buffoonish contradiction -- one that sits at the center of Rudy's primary stump argument right now -- has become so obvious that even Tucker Carlson had to take note of it today. Tucker went so far as to post Rudy's entire pro-Bill quote from September on the screen. Take a look:

One has to imagine that Rudy is desperately hoping that the Clintons will respond to his attacks, so he can anesthetize the GOP base with a public brawl with them over terrorism. No sign yet that they're biting, though. Oh, well. You do what you can.

We've just unearthed another choice quote from Rudy's new S.C. co-chair, former Congressman and former state Senator Arthur Ravenel, Jr. Not only did Ravenel profess his love for the Confederate battle flag, but he said this on national television to none other than Martin Luther King III, the son of Martin Luther King, Jr.

From ABC's Nightline, July 26, 1999:

"I mean, you know, I love and revere and cherish the Confederate battle flag. When you want to take it down or if you take it down, pull it down, move it or whatever, don't you discriminate against me? How about me?"

The head of the South Carolina NAACP sharply laid into Rudy Giuliani in an interview, saying that his willingness to keep a South Carolina campaign co-chair with a history of racially charged remarks "doesn't speak well of Giuliani's campaign."

As Election Central reported recently, Rudy's new South Carolina campaign chairman, former state legislator and congressman Arthur Ravenel, Jr., has a long history of making racially inflammatory comments. Perhaps his brightest moment came when he referred to the NAACP as the "National Associated of Retarded People."

In an interview with Election Central, Dwight James, executive director of the South Carolina NAACP, tore into Rudy for keepiing Ravanel.

"It doesn't speak well of the Giuliani campaign, specifically to African-Americans," James told Election Central. He later added, "It should give thoughtful voters much pause before they would embrace a campaign that would have Senator Ravenel as a high-ranking official."

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Fred Thompson made a much-ballyhooed campaign-style stop in South Carolina today, and what jumped out at us about it is the fact that he's actually still playing a faux coy game about whether he's running for President.

The State reports that one of Thompson's key lines on the stump today was this: "Maybe I can come back later in a different capacity and we can talk a little bit more about some of these issues." The paper says this was met with a standing ovation.

But really: Fred Thompson is, without a doubt, a candidate for president. He has a fundraising committe, an official Web site with a donation page, staff and everything else you'd expect.

What's more, in a more candid moment recently, Thompson himself acknowledged that, yes, he's running. He said: "You're either running or not running. I think the steps we're taking are pretty obvious."

Such candor, however wasn't on display today in South Carolina. (One wonders whether Thompson will call himself a candidate, should he win the primaries and find himself delivering his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention in St. Paul.)

Meanwhile, according to all reports, Thompson was a smash hit among the South Carolina conservatives who received him today. He drew ovations for denouncing the immigration bill, and a fundraiser for the state party he headlined was a sold-out overflow crowd.

One of the more interesting subplots of this Presidential race is that each candidate is struggling to outdo one another with clever and snazzy YouTube innovations. Whether it's Obama's announcement and then Hillary's anouncement on YouTube, Edwards' fundraising email with a YouTube of Ann Coulter, Mike Gravel's...well, whatever it was -- each candidate is trying to put his or her own stamp on the medium.

Now Chris Dodd is getting his week in the YouTube spotlight, which means he gets to post a YouTube that will likely command hundreds of thousands of viewers. So what's he gonna do with it?

His vid's now up, and in it, he's calling on voters to go and visit their Senators and Congressmen and ask them what they have to say about the Dodd amendment to the Defense Authorization bill. That measure will be considered in early July and if passed would force the President to begin pulling out of Iraq in 30 days.

But in a twist, Dodd is asking folks not just to ask the pols' opinions, but to tape their answers. Dodd's campaign will then post the results on the Dodd website. Here's Dodd himself making the case for his idea:

Clearly, Dodd is using this occasion to (a) keep pushing the notion that he's the candidate who embraces bigger and bolder ideas than his cautious rivals; and (b) make the case again that he's moving more aggressively than they are to end the Iraq War. It remains to be seen how effective his approach will be -- both in terms of putting Senators and Congressmen on the record, or in terms of helping Dodd politically.

Also noteworthy in Dodd's vid: The stretch ridiculing the media for superficial coverage of the race. We couldn't help but notice Dodd's clear swipe at Hillary in the form of his suggestion that her use of the Celine Dion campaign song was of a piece with this superficiality.

A Hillary fundraiser tells us that the buzz at her massive fundraising event hosted by billionaire Warren Buffett last night is that she's managed to raise over a million dollars this quarter in Chicago -- which is obviously Barack Obama's home turf.

Over $990,000 of that was raised on Monday night at a big event at Chicago's Palmer House Hilton, this source says. The event was only expected to take in $750,000.

"It's an incredibly powerful statement that in such a tight-knit town as Chicago, the home-town girl was able to raise so much cash to run against the home-town Senator," the Hillary fundraiser crows.

Of course, we don't know how much Obama raised in New York. Either way, a noteworthy little tidbit.

From a new Quinnipiac swing state poll:

Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani is losing ground in the 2008 general election and Republican primaries in three critical states - Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to Quinnipiac University's Swing State Poll, three simultaneous surveys of voters in states that have been pivotal in presidential elections since 1964...

Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, who has not formally declared his candidacy, has gained in primary matchups, and passed or tied Arizona Sen. John McCain in all three states, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

"Mayor Rudolph Giuliani's margins against the Democrats in the critical swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida are shrinking, but the differences remain small, especially between the two front-runners, Sen. Hillary Clinton and Mayor Giuliani," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Full poll here. Dig in.

House Republicans Criticize Immigration Compromise
The House Republican Conference passed a resolution showing their disapproval of the contentious comprehensive immigration deal now winding it's way through the Senate. "The Senate bill is a bad piece of public policy ... you can’t overestimate the amount of frustration there is [with the bill] in the conference," said Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-MI), noting that the break with President Bush, who helped craft the deal, was unusual. “The [White House] staff indicated that this would not be helpful."

Iowa Poll: Both Republicans And Dems Want To Leave Iraq
A new poll from GOP firm Strategic Vision shows majorities of both parties' voters favoring a withdrawal from Iraq. In response to the question, "Do you favor a withdrawal of all United States military from Iraq within the next six months?" a whopping 83% of Democrats said yes. And while the Republican side was not nearly as lopsided, it was still significant — 56% of Republicans in Iowa said yes.

Voinovich Joins Lugar, Calls For Change In Iraq
Senator George Voinovich (R-OH) sent a letter to President Bush yesterday reiterating remarks made on the Senate floor Monday night by Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN), about the need to withdraw forces from Iraq. The Senators' remarks have been interpreted as part of a growing rebellion in Congress against the Bush Administration's Iraq policy and come two months before Congress is set to receive reports on the progress of the troop surge strategy. "We must begin to develop a comprehensive plan for our country’s gradual military disengagement from Iraq," Voinovich wrote. "Though it may seem contradictory, I believe we can accomplish more in Iraq by gradually and responsibly reducing our forces and focusing on a robust strategy of international cooperation and coordinated foreign aid."

New York Times: Hillary Campaign May Be Playing Expectations Game On Fundraising
The New York Times reports that the Hillary Clinton campaign is either exceeding its expectations on fundraising — or may have been lowballing the estimates this whole time. Previous estimates have had Hillary raising $27 million this quarter, which ends on Saturday. But one unaffiliated Democratic source gave the Times a memo indicating that the $27 million figure is now the bottom end of the estimate — the campaign could get as high as $30 million.

GOP Readies For Fight On Talk Radio
House Republican leaders are introducing legislation to preempt an anticipated move by some Democrats to reinstitute the Fairness Doctrine, which required broadcasters to give time to different sides of issues. "There is a responsibility to see that both sides and not just one side of the big public questions of debate of the day are aired and are aired with some modicum of fairness," said Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) in a recent interview — helping to spur the new move by Republicans. We reported last week about conflicting statements made by Senator James Inhofe (R-OK), regarding an alleged conversation between Senators Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and Barbara Boxer (D-CA) about a "legislative fix" for talk radio. Inhofe has now said the conversation happened years ago, and not recently, as his original version of the story indicated.

Dems, Including Two Clintons, Head To Iowa For Break
Iowa will be crowded with hopefuls for the 2008 Democratic nomination next week, as Congress goes on break. The most notable example: The state will host the first campaigning done by former President Bill Clinton on his wife's behalf.

Laura Richardson Leading Jenny Oropeza In California Special Election
In the special primary election in California's 37th Congressional District, Assemblywoman Laura Richardson led fellow Democrat state Sen. Jenny Oropeza for the seat held by the late Congresswoman Juanita Millender-McDonald. Turnout was low in the special election for the safely Democratic seat. Since no candidate reached 50% of the vote, a runoff will be held on August 21 against the top Republican candidate. Richardson is heavily favored to win.

Suprise! The Young Are Liberal
In the lead story today, The New York Times writes that young Americans are more liberal than the older generations. In a key piece of information from the poll, "substantially more" of the youths are paying attention to the presidential race this cycle, though only small percentages can identify more than the two leading Democratic candidates, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

MoveOn To Target The Rare "Dingellsaurus"
The liberal group MoveOn has launched radio ads in Michigan targeting Rep. John Dingell (D-MI) for crafting energy legislation, which they say doesn't go far enough on global warming. The ads create a fictional dinosaur called a Dingellsaurus, "someone who has been around so long he forgets about the people who sent him there." The group's supporters are planning to rally outside Dingell's offices in Washington and Michigan wearing dinosaur costumes.

Rudy Again Bashes Bill On Terrorism -- Even Though He Previously Said Bill Shouldn't Be Faulted
The Associated Press reports that Rudy again attacked Bill Clinton's anti-terrorism record, accusing the former President of not responding forcefully enough to the 1993 World Trade Center bombing or later terrorist attacks. But as we've pointed out here at Election Central, back in September Rudy told quite a different story, saying that Bill shouldn't be faulted as soft on terrorism. Gratifyingly, the AP has now reproduced the whole previous Rudy quote that we flagged, proving that straight-talking Rudy is dissembling badly once again. Will other news orgs do the same? --gs

Bush Twists Tongue, Calls Immigration Deal Amnesty
President Bush appeared to confuse himself or perhaps just let out a Freudian slip when he referred to the immigration compromise before Congress he has championed as giving amnesty: "You know, I've heard all the rhetoric — you've heard it, too — about how this is amnesty. Amnesty means that you've got to pay a price for having been here illegally, and this bill does that." The White House offered this in a statement: "This has been construed as an assertion that comprehensive immigration reform legislation before the Senate offers amnesty to immigrants who came here illegally. That is the exact opposite of the president's long-held and often-stated position."

Thompson Mum On Announcement, Says It's "Obvious" He Is Running
When asked about the timing for an announcement of his entry into the race for president, Fred Thompson demurred — and then downplayed the importance of it. "I have a general time in mind," he said. "You're either running or not running. I think the steps we're taking are pretty obvious."

Biden Admits That Politics Dictates His Presence At Doomed Vote
Joe Biden made a frank admission to Congressional Quarterly: He knew fully well that cloture would fail on the Employee Free Choice Act — and it did fail — but he was making a point of showing up to vote for the sake of his presidential campaign. "I will be completely candid about that," Biden told them before the vote. "I would not miss that vote because of the importance to labor."

Warren Buffett To Attend Clinton Fundraiser Tonight
Warren Buffett, the world's third richest man, will be attending a fundraiser for Hillary Clinton tonight in Manhattan with a host of bankers, private equity traders and hedge fund managers. Buffett has made no official endorsement for Clinton or any other presidential candidate, but he has donated the maximum $4,600 to her campaign.

Illinois Republican Blasted For Appearing In Obama Ad
Illinois Republican Party chairman Andy McKenna is publicly reprimanding state Senator Kirk Dillard (R) for appearing in a new Barack Obama ad: "It's disappointing to see him work for Sen. Obama given that all his work should be for a Republican candidate who is more experienced and more qualified." Dillard says he still supports John McCain, and is running in the February 5 primary to be a McCain-pledged delegate, but did the ad as a favor for a friend whom he respects. The Chicago Tribune notes that Dillard did not have such kind words for Obama during the 2004 Senate campaign — while he complimented Obama as a human being, he also said Obama "is soft on crime and borderline socialist on health care."

GOP Senators Defend Lugar, White House Downplays His Remarks
Republican Senators defended remarks by Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN), the ranking member of the Foreign Relations Committee, who said in a floor speech yesterday that he supported a serious change of course in Iraq. "I hail what he did," said Sen. John Warner (R-VA). "It shows the strength that each of us individually must bring to this debate." Tony Snow downplayed Lugar's remarks: "I think if you take a look at what his own people have said, they said it's consistent with what he said in the past."

Tancredo: Let Paul Into Forum
Perhaps worried about his own status as a lower-tier candidate within the GOP field, Tom Tancredo issued a statement today in support of Ron Paul's effort to participate in the coming presidential forum in Des Moines, Iowa. Tancredo himself has been invited to the event, hosted this Saturday by the Iowa Christian Alliance and Iowans for Tax Relief. "The Republican party is better because he is one of us and he has earned the right to be in all presidential forums and debates," Tancredo said.

Ron Paul Compares Tax Evaders To Gandhi And Martin Luther King
In a recent interview, Ron Paul had some glowing words for New Hampshire couple Ed and Elaine Brown. The Browns are "tax protesters" who deny the legal legitimacy of the income tax, saying it is part of a conspiracy to destroy America, and have been convicted on multiple counts of tax evasion and sentenced to 63 months in federal prison. They have not yet gone to prison, though — they are in the midst of a months-long standoff with police, who are trying to find a way to take them in while avoiding violence. "People who point this out and fight the tax code and fight the monetary code are heroic," Paul said. "I compare them to people like Gandhi, who was willing to speak out and try to bring about change in a peaceful manner. Martin Luther King fought laws that were unfair and unjust, and he suffered, too."

This morning, the Edwards campaign sent out a fundraising email with a video of Ann Coulter basically stopping just short of saying she wanted to see John Edwards killed in a terrorist attack.

Well, Coulter was just on Hardball -- and moments ago, Elizabeth Edwards called in to stage a surprise confrontation of the pundit.

A couple quick points on this. First, Elizabeth is basically now the lead front-woman for attacking the wingnuts -- standing up for her man, and all that. Recall that Coulter called Edwards a "faggot" and has launched other, equally tasteful attacks on him of late. Also recall that Elizabeth went after Matt Drudge the other day. This is clearly a storyline being laid out by the campaign, and for good reason. (Cue up the pundits who will claim this makes Edwards look weak and incapable of defending himself.)

Second, and more obviously, this and the attack on Drudge are of a broader piece with the Edwards folks' clear decision to go after the right in a way that the other candidates aren't really doing as publicly. It's part of a pattern that goes back to his being first to bail on the Fox debates. It's a strategy that's partly an outgrowth of the story the campaign's trying to tell about the newly liberated, genuinely progressive Edwards, as he claims to be. But it's also partly born of necessity. The constituencies that are likely to be fired up by such stuff (and we readily admit to being helpless suckers for it) are really the turf that's most open to him.

It's also worth noting that it looks like Chris Matthews sandbagged Coulter here (not that we have a problem with that). Matthews knew Elizabeth would be calling and clearly didn't let Coulter know, since she was obviously surprised by the call. Thanks, Chris -- good happy hour fun.

Update: It's worth pointing out that Elizabeth Edwards wasn't merely defending her husband here -- she called on Coulter to stop spewing garbage and degrading our discourse in general, a demand that appeared to leave Coulter completely flabbergasted.

Some more numbers from this week's big CNN poll are now online, and here's a key one flagged by Atrios from the "teevee" a bit earlier:

Do you think the United States' action in Iraq is morally justified, or not?

Yes, morally justified 42%
No, not morally justified 54%

We may have missed it, but we haven't see the question phrased this way before. Have you? It asks not whether we're succeeding, but whether our continued presence is morally justified -- not our original invasion, but our current action. And a majority say, "Nope."

Other key numbers:

* Bush's approval rating is 32%.

* Forty-one percent oppose the war because they think the initial invasion was a mistake.

* Sixty-three percent want to withdraw some or all the troops from Iraq.

* Respondents are evenly split on whether to close or keep operating Guantanamo.

Full poll here.

Lots of people are understandably curious to know what sort of messages Hillary pollster Mark Penn is testing on behalf of her boss right now.

Well, we've got some answers to that question.

Penn's pollsters have been testing various negative messages on both Barack Obama and John Edwards. The messages tested on Obama were that he's inexperienced and that he's voted to fund the war at certain junctures.

A bit more surprising: Penn's firm polled on Edwards' $400 haircut, a line of inquiry that would seem more likely to come from a GOPer than from a fellow Dem's campaign. Penn has already created controversy for Hillary with his anti-union corporate clientele.

A bit of background. This morning, Ben Smith linked to this story in the Iowa Independent. It quoted an Iowa resident named Jason Eness-Potter, who claimed to have received a polling call from a firm called "PSA Interviewing," which is the field office of Penn's firm.

We followed up with a call to Eness-Potter, and he gave us some intriguing details about the call. And we've also tracked down a second person who says she got the call from the pollster and helped flesh out Penn's approach some more.

Read more »

Looks like the big news orgs are starting to pay attention to the "controversial" background of Rudy Giuliani's new South Carolina campaign co-chair.

Yesterday we reported that the official, Arthur Ravenel, Jr., has a bit of a history when it comes to making what are commonly referred to as "racially charged" remarks. Ravenel's greatest hit was probably his reference to the NAACP the "National Association For Retarded People."

Now CNN has grabbed on to the story:

Arthur Ravenel, a former U.S. Congressman and state senator, has his own controversial history. A supporter of flying the Confederate flag on the statehouse grounds, Ravenel referred to the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP) as the “National Association for Retarded People” at a flag rally in 2000, according to the Charleston Post and Courier.

Arthur Ravenel later said he inadvertently mixed up his words and apologized to mentally handicapped people for comparing them to members of the NAACP, according to the newspaper.

CNN adds this interesting tidbit: The Rudy campaign is declining to comment on its new S.C. co-chair's colorful past. If more big news orgs pick up on this, that might change.

More soon.

"The big question right now among Republicans is how to remove Vice President Cheney from office."

--Sally Quinn, in a column today in The Washington Post entitled "A GOP Plan To Oust Cheney." Of course, Quinn doesn't quote anyone actually saying this. But as Steve Benen notes, Quinn is the "social director of the Georgetown cocktail circuit," meaning that "if Quinn is writing about it, Republicans in DC are talking about it." So it's at least possible that there's something here.

Bill Clinton is playing one of the Hillary campaign's big trump cards, reviving memories of his battles with the winger machine in order to help raise money for his wife's candidacy.

From a fundraising pitch signed by Bill just emailed out by the Hillary campaign:

She's also the best candidate to beat the Republican machine. You know Hillary will never let a swift boat-style attack go unanswered. Even when they outspent her two-to-one in her Senate campaign, she still came out on top -- in a landslide. And when she ran for reelection, she won almost 60 percent of the votes in New York counties that went for President Bush in 2004. When Republicans saw what she did, instead of what her opponents said about her, they voted for her too.

Bill also lowers expectations in preparation for a big Obama fundraising pull, writing: "The fact is, our opponents may very well outraise us -- and we can't afford to lose momentum now."

Katrina Swett — a longtime New Hampshire Democratic activist and Senate primary candidate who has taken a pummeling for her past support of Joe Lieberman — is now officially running away from the Connecticut Senator.

As we reported recently, Swett suggested a couple weeks ago that she was drifting away from Lieberman. At the time, she said that she found herself "disagreeing with him more and more frequently these days," adding: "This doesn't change the fact that we are friends, but it does change my support of him as a politician." This was a start, but hardly conclusive.

But now there's more. The Concord Monitor reports that Swett personally donated $1,000 to MoveOn's efforts to raise money for Dem Rep. Tom Allen of Maine, who's running against GOP Senator Susan Collins. MoveOn is raising cash for Allen to offset Lieberman, who held a fundraiser for Collins last week.

So now Swett has gone from aggressively championing Lieberman against Ned Lamont and liberal activists like MoveOn, to giving money to a MoveOn fundraising drive for someone running against a key Lieberman ally — all in the space of about three months. Will this be good enough for her critics?

A second national poll in two weeks has found that Fred Thompson holds a small edge over Rudy Giuliani. The new Rassmussen poll finds:

Fred Thompson 27%
Rudy Giuliani 23%
Mitt Romney 12%
John McCain 11%

That's up slightly from the last Rassmussen poll, which found Thompson ahead 28%-27%, though some other national polls have shown Rudy with a solid lead.

Not surprisingly, the poll shows conservatives favor Thompson and moderates favor Giuliani. Thompson is set to unveil his campaign headquarters today in Tennessee.

John Edwards launched a new campaign ad in New Hampshire today:

The 30 second spot features uplifting one-liners from Edwards' speeches over b-roll of the New Hampshire countryside, closeups of him speaking and cheering crowds -- all set over dramatic classical horns and violins. And it repeats one of his standard stump lines: "It's time for the President of the United States to ask Americans to be patriotic about something other than war."

No info available yet on the size or length of the buy.

Romney Loans His Campaign More Money

Mitt Romney has reached into checkbook again, loaning his campaign more of his personal fortune. The amount has not been specified yet, although it will have to become public when his campaign releases its second-quarter numbers. Although Romney has led the GOP field in fundraising, it has also had to spend the most money on ads in order to boost his profile against the likes of Rudy Giuliani and John McCain. "It is a nightmare," Romney told The Boston Globe, in reaction to comments he'd made months ago about it being a "nightmare" if he would have to put so much money into his campaign. When asked why he is doing it, Romney was blunt: "Because I have to, all right? My message is important and critical to get out into this country."

Associated Press: Thompson Got Rich As A Lobbyist

The Associated Press takes a look at Fred Thompson's career as a Washington lobbyist, a strong contrast to his preferred image as a Washington outsider. His career comprises two eras: Before he was elected to the Senate in 1994, and after he left the Senate in 2002. And in both cases, Thompson did very well, thanks to his connections to Senate Majority Leaders Howard Baker and Bill Frist. "More recently, while Frist led the Senate, Thompson earned more than $750,000 lobbying for a British reinsurance company that wanted to limit its liability from asbestos lawsuits," the AP gives as a post-20002 example.

Immigration Deal Back Today, Obama Amendment Could Kill It

The Senate will once again consider the immigration compromise again today and leaders fear an amendment pushed by Senators Barack Obama (D-IL), Charles Grassley (R-IA), and Max Baucus (D-MT), easing requirements on employers could derail the legislation. The amendment would allow managers to use any state identification instead of the REAL ID that is nationally standardized. The amendment is apparently a "poison pill" designed to derail the bill if passed, since Grassley and Baucus are already outspoken opponents of the bill — meaning Obama may well have just joined their ranks.

Advocacy Groups React To SCOTUS Issue Ad Decision

No one is quite sure how yesterday's Supreme Court decision legalizing issue ads will affect the different candidates or even parties, but advocacy groups are cheering their newly freed speech. Wayne LaPierre, executive vice president for the National Rifle Association, said candidates "can expect to have the NRA on the air, in their face, with an ad."

Fred Thompson Hires Midwest Political Director

Fred Thompson's campaign has hired Iowa Republican Andrew Dorr as his Midwest political director. Though only 28 years old, Dorr has already served in high positions in the GOP: He was deputy Midwest political director for President Bush's 2004 campaign, and in 2006 he was political director for the unsuccessful campaign of Jim Nussle for governor of Iowa.

Former S.C. Gov Riley Endorses Hillary

Richard Riley, a former governor of South Carolina, will endorse Hillary Clinton in Columbia today. Riley served as secretary of education under Bill Clinton.

Richardson Camp: We're Gaining In Iowa

Bill Richardson's campaign has released an internal poll showing them making progress in Iowa. The numbers: Edwards 34%, Clinton 24%, Obama 17%, Richardson 13%. When the data is filtered out for only those respondents deemed most likely to go to the caucus, it becomes: Edwards 31%, Clinton 23%, Richardson 18%, Obama 16%. This is an internal poll, released by a campaign for its own benefit, so one may want to take it with a grain of salt.

Today: Special Election In California

Today is the first round of voting in California's 37th Congressional District, a special election being held due to the death of Democratic Congresswoman Juanita Millender-McDonald. If no candidate receives over 50% — almost certain to occur, since there are 17 names on the ballot — then the top two will advance to a runoff, regardless of party. Democrats are heavily favored to hold the seat, and the runoff may well feature two Democrats. Congressional Quarterly offers run-down of the race, including the ethnic constituencies of the major candidates.

Draft Gore Ads On The Air

Al Gore is "eloquent, passionate, relentless, undaunted," according to the Gore-philes at DraftGore.com, who have a new radio ad in Iowa set to go national next month. The group says it has 94,000 signatures on a petition asking the former vice president to join the race.

GOPers Bid For Position At Ames
Mitt Romney is rumored to be the high bidder for the best positioned tents at the Ames straw poll, paying some $25,000. Brownback paid $20,000 while the minimum is $15,000. Campaigns are expected to shell out millions more for tickets, food and paraphernalia for the August contest.

Florida Dems To Target Up To Five GOP House Seats
The Lakeland Ledger reports that Florida Democrats, after picking up two House seats last year, are set to target up to five more seats in the 2008 cycle. The targeted incumbents will be freshman Vern Buchanan — who won a heavily disputed result last year — plus Ric Keller, Dave Weldon, Tom Feeney and C.W. "Bill" Young.

Clinton Favorite of CEOs
Fortune magazine reports that Hillary Clinton, and to a lesser degree Barack Obama, are favorites among the corporate set, atypical for Democratic candidates and especially so early in the race. A possible cause is that corporations might be moving away from the Republicans, who are in political decline, to a less risky investment in Democrats. The article details how Clinton picked up Morgan Stanley CEO John Mack's endorsement and counts over 150 other top executives that have joined her, more than John Kerry ever got in his whole general election campaign.

Newsweek To Readers: If You Say We're Losing War Against Al Qaeda, You're "Wrong"
Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal has a great catch: One of the questions in a new Newsweek poll asks people what the "right" answer is to the question of whether we're winning the war against Al Qaeda. Newsweek indicates in its poll data that the "right" answer to this question is that we're winning, and the "wrong" answer is that we're losing. Check out this bizarre bit of polling right here.

Republican In Obama Ad Backs ... McCain
Ben Smith points out that the token Republican seen praising Barack Obama in his new television ads, Illinois state Senator Kirk Dillard, is a McCain supporter. The McCain camp says Dillard is still with them.

Lawyer Tied To Indicted Chicago Mogul Rezko Hosts Fundraiser For Hillary
Myron Cherry, a Democratic businessman mentioned in the indictment against Chicago real estate owner Tony Rezko, is hosting a fundraiser for Hillary Clinton tonight. Cherry is not charged with any crime related to the Rezko scandal but is mentioned as the recipient of a finder's fee for business from the state pension fund in a suspect deal that Rezko orchestrated.

Shut Out Of Iowa Debate, Paul To Hold Rally At Same Location Afterwards
Ron Paul is set to go to Iowa this Saturday, where he'll headline a rally — immediately after a debate he's being excluded from, and at the same venue. Paul was not invited to the debate, sponsored by Iowans for Tax Relief and the Iowa Christian Alliance. Ron Paul was not invited to the debate on the grounds that he is not a major candidate — though the same forum is hosting other underdogs like Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo. Instead, Paul will be going to the same building, the Hy Vee Hall, when the debate will be concluding. "We’re not tying to compete with it or create any controversy" said Kent Snyder, the Paul campaign's national chairman. "We’re not trying to interrupt that."

In Kentucky, Democrat Beshear Holding Fundraiser With High-Ranking Republican
Democratic candidate for governor Steve Beshear, who has enjoyed a wide lead in the polls over incumbent Republican Ernie Fletcher, is holding a fundraiser with Lexington Vice Mayor Mike Scanlon, a Republican himself. "I like him — he makes sense, and I think he will make a great governor," Scanlon told the Lexington Herald-Leader. Scanlon has crossed party lines before — while he backed Fletcher for governor in 2003, he supported Democrat Ben Chandler to succeed Fletcher for the 2004 special election to succeed Fletcher in Congress.

Is Hillary Abandoning Her Official Campaign Song?
NBC News reports that at a fundraiser in Manhattan last night, Hillary Clinton campaign played a certain song after she finished her speech: "Suddenly I See" by KT Tunstall — not the official campaign song of "You and I," performed by Céline Dion, which won an online vote of Clinton's supporters. As we discussed last week, the Dion track was originally written to be a jingle for Air Canada. Is the Hillary campaign backing away from the choice?

Late Update: This post originally said Kirk Dillard was a McCain co-chair in Illinois. He is not a co-chair, but is simply a supporter of the Arizona Senator.

At this point, we can make it official: Rudy Giuliani really, really, really has bad luck with members of South Carolina's Ravenel clan.

Earlier this month, Rudy's former South Carolina chair, Thomas Ravenel, quietly stepped down from the gig after getting indicted for conspiracy to distribute cocaine.

Today, Rudy's campaign announced that Ravenel's father, Arthur Ravenel, Jr., would serve as the state's campaign co-chair. But now Rudy isn't faring a heck of a lot better with Ravenel the Elder, either.

It turns out that Ravenel pere has a history of sorts. The Politicker's Jason Horowitz has the goods:

On October 18, 2006 The Post and Courier of Charleston, SC wrote " Arthur Ravenel Jr., who is running for an East Cooper seat on the board, caught flack 16 years ago when he was in Congress and made a comment about white committee chairmen who operated on 'black time,' which he said meant fashionably late."

As recently as January 2000, the Post and Courier reported in an article headlined "Ravenel stepped outside 'civility,'" that Ravenel called the NAACP the "National Association For Retarded People."

When asked about the comment in the story, Ravenel said that he misspoke. "It was a slip of the tongue. I have never said the NAACP was retarded," he told the Post and Courier. "I made a rhetorical slip, and they want to lynch me for it."

It's all in the family...Rudy's new family.

Update: Here's the full "retarded" quote, from the Austin-American Statesman on January 9, 2000:

Republican state Sen. Arthur Ravenel told the crowd at a Statehouse rally that lawmakers should not cave into the pressure of outside influences when they return next week for a legislative session that is certain to take up the divisive issue.

Ravenel told the crowd that he was recently confronted with questions by an out-of-state reporter who asked: "Aren't you people in South Carolina worried about what the people in the rest of the country think about you?" To which the crowd shouted back with a resounding "No."

"Can you believe that there are those who think that the General Assembly of South Carolina is going to . . . knuckle under, roll over and do the bidding (of) that organization known as the National Association for Retarded People?" lawmaker Ravenel asked the cheering crowd.

A new CNN national poll, just released, shows little change in the Dem field. Among Dems and Dem-leaning independents, Hillary leads Obama by 18%:

Clinton 43% Obama 25% Edwards 17% Richardson 5% Biden 3%

In the GOP field, Rudy's still leading, but Thompson's support grew from 11% in April to 19% in today's survey:

Giuliani 31% Thompson 21% McCain 19% Romney 11%

One key footnote: If Bloomberg gets into the race, Hillary still barely edges Rudy nationally, 41%-38%, with Mike pulling 17%.

Update: It's probably worth noting that national numbers involving Bloomberg conceivably are even more meaningless than national numbers usually are, since it's likely that not many people know anything about Bloomberg beyond the fact that he's a height-challenged billionaire.

Looks like Mitt is sticking by ol' Jay Garrity.

You remember Garrity. He's the hapless Romney aide who got in trouble for swaggering into a Massachusetts bar and drawling, "There's a new sheriff in this here state," while wearing a cowboy hat, a pair of holstered pistols, and a silver-star badge. (Okay, in reality he's under investigation for allegedly impersonating a trooper.)

At a presser today, Romney was asked about Garrity, and said: “I give him the benefit of the doubt. I hope other people do, too."

“He’s a good guy and I wish him the very best,” Romney added. “But this is now in his hands. He’s got his own counsel, and I am hoping things come out real well for him.”

In other Romney news, he also said at the presser that he'd be loaning his campaign an untold sum of cash.

The GOP candidates are starting to react to the Supreme Court decision this morning allowing organizations not subject to campaign finance restrictions to run issue ads mentioning federal candidates just before an election. As you can imagine, John McCain hates it and Mitt Romney loves it. Nothing yet from Rudy, however. Statements from McCain and Romney after the jump.

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His campaign has barely begun, but Fred Thompson is already besting Rudy Giuliani in one all-important category: Unlike Rudy, Thompson has the support of his exes.

The Times of London reports that Fred Thompson claims that his ex-wife, Sarah Knestrick, to whom he was married for 26 years, told him that she supports his presidential bid and intends to campaign for him.

Rudy isn't so lucky. Giuliani's marriage to Donna Hanover publicly collapsed in 2000, and his relationship with Hanover and his children from that marriage is, to put it very mildly, still a rocky one. Rudy and Donna don't speak, and his son Andrew has even denounced him to the press.

Thompson, meanwhile, enjoys the support not just of his ex-wife, but his ex-girlfriends, too. The Times quotes old flame Lorrie Morgan, who spoke of the man in rather favorable terms. "I think he has a great chance of capturing the women’s vote. He’s majestic. He’s a soft, safe place to be and that could be Fred’s ticket," Morgan said, offering the following rather graphic kicker: "Women love a soft place to lay and a strong pair of hands to hold us." Uh, okay.

Obama is hitting the airwaves this week in Iowa for the first time with two new biographical spots:

Both ads try to offer stirring reminders of why Obama took off in the first place, before the rough-and-tumble reality of Campaign 2008 set in a bit: He's a skilled conciliator (one ad even features a Republican state Senator in Illinois, praising him and saying he'd be good for the country) and he's a powerful and inspiring speaker (the second ad reprises some great moments from the 2004 Dem convention speech).

Some interesting analysis of the ads from Ben Smith -- who also reports that the buy is "relatively small" -- is right here.

Jonathan Prince, the deputy campaign manager for John Edwards, has just sent out an email to supporters directly faulting The New York Times and reporter Leslie Wayne over that Friday front-page story saying that Edwards' antipoverty nonprofit is nothing but a vehicle for his 2008 Presidential run.

From the email:

Last week The New York Times ran a story suggesting that it was wrong for John to have spent the last three years raising awareness of poverty and advocating for solutions. As if there's any way to draw attention to poverty without publicity! And to make matters worse, the reporter just refused to even talk with any of the people who benefited—like any of the 200 young people who got scholarships through the College for Everyone program, or the 700 students who went to New Orleans with John to help rebuild. So we really need your help to get our message out; please, give what you can today.

It's unusual, to be sure, for candidates to attack the almighty Paper of Record so directly. Also unusual: Pointing to a negative story about yourself in order to raise money. This reminds us, of course, that Edwards advisers know his supporters are inclined to believe the worst about the big news orgs and their intentions towards candidates that tilt left.

Indeed, in that same vein, the email also blasts the media over coverage of his haircut, saying it's a sign that "the whole Washington establishment wants our campaign to go away." The full email after the jump.

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Associated Press:

WASHINGTON - The Supreme Court loosened restrictions Monday on corporate- and union-funded television ads that air close to elections, weakening a key provision of a landmark campaign finance law.

The court, split 5-4, upheld an appeals court ruling that an anti-abortion group should have been allowed to air ads during the final two months before the 2004 elections. The law unreasonably limits speech and violates the group's First Amendment rights, the court said.

The Supreme Court struck down a provision of the McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform law that prohibited organizations without contribution limits from running "issue ads" that mention a candidate for federal election either 30 days before a primary of 60 days before a general election.

The Bush Administration and a coalition of ACLU leaders supported restricting issue ads while some labor unions and advocacy groups sided with Wisconsin Right to Life, a party to the suit which tried to run ads asking voters to contact Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) to stop filibusters of President Bush's judicial nominations.

Ezra Klein offers some thoughts on that Times article alleging that Edwards' antipoverty nonprofit was merely a cynically-conceived vehicle to keep his Presidential hopes alive:

Indeed, this all seems like an extremely successful venture. Edwards raised some money to fight poverty. He used a certain amount of that money to finance his own pre-presidential campaigning, which was entirely focused on poverty reduction. During that campaigning, he spent an enormous amount of time...talking about poverty, and restoring its place in the national political discussion. Given that the sum of money we're talking about is $1.3 million, how has this not been an extraordinarily effective anti-poverty center? Granted, among its methods were to enable a national politician to continually raise the issue's profile through his personal advocacy, but isn't that what folks donating to a John Edwards poverty center were expecting? And hasn't Edwards -- who still brings up poverty in his speeches, just released a book on the subject, and whose efforts spurred Matt Bai to write a New York Times Magazine cover story on the reemergence of the issue in the national political discourse -- proven very, very effective? If you care about poverty, this seems like $1.3 million well spent.

Indeed. Look, one of the things that's really debilitating to political reporting is this bizarre insistence that politicians only have one motive for doing stuff. Hillary is only saying things in order to humanize herself. Obama is only giving policy speeches because he's trying to prove that he's got substance. Edwards is only running his poverty nonprofit to keep his profile up for a 2008 Presidential run.

Instead of this idiocy, how 'bout we start from the premise that politicians can operate out of a series of motives? Here's a thought: Edwards cares about the poverty issue. He also wants to keep his profile up, both because he wants to draw attention to his issue and because he is ambitious. And on top of that he wants to remain viable enough to run for President -- again, for more than one reason. As President, he can work on the issues he cares about, and he gets to be the most powerful and closely watched person on earth. So maybe he formed this nonprofit for all these reasons, and perhaps even other ones, too! People are complicated beings -- politicians included. That thought shouldn't be all that tough for political reporters to process, should it?

White House May Reach Out To Congress On Iraq Planning
The Los Angeles Times reports that the White House is seriously considering reaching out to Congressional leaders on future Iraq planning and policies, in order to avoid funding battles. One possibility is that the White House could adopt the idea of a decentralized, federal system for Iraq, as has been promoted by Democrats like Joe Biden and Republicans like Sam Brownback.

New York Times Profiles Rise Of Murdoch As Political Force
The New York Times has an in-depth piece on media mogul Rupert Murdoch's political rise. Notably, the piece discusses the hard-line conservative's efforts to hedge his bets by creating relationships with both high-level Republicans and Democrats. As an example, Murdoch has donated $500,000 to Bill Clinton's charity and held two fundraisers for Hillary's re-election bid.

Elizabeth Edwards Supports Gay Marriage
Speaking yesterday to San Francisco's Alice B. Toklas Lesbian Gay Bisexual Transgender Democratic Club, Elizabeth Edwards took a stronger line on gay rights than that of her husband, the candidate. "I don't know why someone else's marriage has anything to do with me," Mrs. Edwards said. "I'm completely comfortable with gay marriage." John Edwards has supported civil unions, but has clearly stopped short of endorsing gay marriage.

Former EPA Chief To Testify Today, Blame Giuliani For Worker Safety
Christie Whitman, former head of the Environmental Protection Agency, will testify at a hearing on Capitol Hill today on the cleanup of Ground Zero. She is expected to say that her agency repeatedly told the city, led by Mayor Rudy Giuliani, to have workers use respirators. Instead, proper safety precautions were not taken fully.

India Daily: Hillary Raised $2 Million From Indian Americans Sunday
An editorial in India Daily reports that Hillary Clinton held a fundraiser with Indian Americans yesterday, where she drew in $2 million in contributions from 1,000 people. The paper writes that Indian Americans are a group that Clinton "has aggressively courted," and the news comes on the heels of a flap over an Obama campaign memo that criticized Clinton for her support of India, calling her "Hillary Clinton (D-Punjab)," a gaffe that has likely put them even more in Hillary's camp and pushed them away from Obama's.

Obama: I Will Close Gitmo
Barack Obama said in Texas Sunday that if elected president he would work with U.S. allies on nuclear proliferation and poverty, as well as close the prison at Guantanamo Bay. The Bush Administration has reportedly been considering the idea, but it is opposed by many on the right.

Hunter: Gitmo Detainees' Guilt "Indisputable"
Duncan Hunter has sent a letter to the White House arguing against releasing any of the Guantanamo detainees, giving a good look at the thinking of many hawks. "It is my view that Guantanamo serves an essential national security function. The military has reviewed the situation of every detainee at Guantanamo, and determined that, if released, they would continue to pose a threat of rejoining al-Qaeda or the Taliban," Hunter wrote. "The danger that these detainees pose is indisputable."

Times of London: McCain Could Drop Out
The Times of London reports that John McCain may end up dropping out of the race this fall if his fundraising and overall organization continue to come up short. "He’ll be gone by September," predicted GOP consultant Tom Edmonds, who is not associated with any campaign. The McCain camp strongly denied the story, but even Arizona GOP chairman Randy Pullen said, "He’s a battler, so I’d expect him to carry on, but everyone is waiting to see what his new fundraising totals are. That’s pretty critical. If he doesn't have the money, he won’t be able to run."

New York Times: Giuliani Doesn't Take Communion Because Of Divorce
The New York Times has a new report on Rudy Giuliani's problems with the Catholic church, whose Bishops have criticized his stances on abortion. The paper reports that he has left church services before the Eucharist in the past, possibly because he never had his second marriage annulled by the church — instead, he is divorced.

As you know, on Friday we yelled and stamped our feet about a huge front page piece in The New York Times that reported that John Edwards' anti-poverty organization was created with the express purpose of building a "bridge" to his 2008 Presidential candidacy.

The Edwards campaign told us that the Times had taken a pass on speaking to beneficaries of the programs. So we asked both reporter Leslie Wayne and a Times spokesperson for a response.

Well, now we've received one. Times spokesperson Abbe Serphos has emailed us the following:

We gave the Edwards camp ample opportunity to respond, and we quoted their full response in the article.

The article focused on the activities of the Center for Promise and Opportunity, and how that benefited Mr. Edwards; it did not focus on the sister charity that provided the scholarship money. In fact, when it did mention that sister charity, it cast it in only a positive light, and noted how much it had given out in scholarships.

We genuinely appreciate the response, which was to our narrower criticism from Friday.

But in our view, the piece nonetheless is deeply flawed. And we're going to use this occasion to try to argue in a broader way as clearly as possile why we think The Times badly botched this.

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Romney: McCain Has Not Given Me A Personal Apology
Mitt Romney has said that John McCain has failed to offer him an apology directly over a supporter's anti-Mormon remarks in Iowa. "In the case of Senator Brownback and Mayor Giuliani ... they called immediately. They each spoke with me personally," Romney said. "I don't have any issue with that at all." Instead, the McCain campaign has apologized for the remark through their national spokesman, Danny Diaz.

Edwards: Non-Profit Work Was Legitimate
John Edwards told reporters in Reno, Nevada, last night that there was nothing wrong with his non-profit anti-poverty foundation work — which has been alleged to have been geared around building his political profile and his travel to early primary state. "What I've been doing is not only significant and there's nothing wrong with it, it's something I'm very proud of," Edwards said. "Everything we did was not only completely legal but we did a lot of good." He also said he would not go beyond the current legal requirements in disclosing the foundation's donors.

Washington Post: Dem Candidates Cautious On Gay Issues
The Washington Post writes that the leading Democratic candidates have taken a careful approach to gay rights issues, supporting civil unions and anti-discrimination laws, but also careful to avoid endorsing same-sex marriage. One important reason, the Post offers, is that the core Democratic constituency of black votes has a strong social conservative element — they are 15 points less likely than the general population to support either gay marriage or civil unions.

Boston Globe Profiles Mitt Romney And His Father George
The Boston Globe has an extended feature today about Mitt Romney's upbringing in Michigan as the son of George Romney, a successful self-made auto executive and Governor of Michigan. The elder Romney began his life on a polygamous Mormon settlement in Mexico, and worked his way up in normal American society, impressing upon his youngest son the importance of hard work and leadership skills. "The Romneys were one of the Mormon faith's leading families," the paper writes. "In fact, the clan's journey from the fringes to the mainstream symbolized the transformation of the church itself."

Dodd Calls For Mandatory Community Service
Chris Dodd has announced a proposal to require community service by all high school students. "If the chat rooms and online communities of today show us anything, it is that young people yearn for shared experiences," Dodd said. "All they are missing, in my view, is leadership from us to redirect that interest toward community service."

NRSC Still Trails Schumer's DSCC
The National Republican Senatorial Committee is playing catch-up with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's fundraising, and is still behind. In May, the NRSC raised $3.3 million to the DSCC's $4.4 million — an improvement over previous months, in which the DSCC doubled the NRSC's performance, but still badly trailing. The DSCC has raised $14.3 million and still has $5 million in debt, putting them $9.3 million in the black. The NRSC has paid all its debts, but is at a much smaller $4.3 million in cash on hand.

Tommy Thompson's Longshot Candidacy Puts Wisconsin GOPers In Limbo
The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports that the underdog candidacy of Tommy Thompson has placed many Wisconsin Republicans in a bind — most have not endorsed him because his campaign is deemed a longshot, but they have not endorsed other candidates, either. And in a way, the paper notes, this has proved a boon for them. There is less pressure to make early endorsements, and they have been able to review the current field and air their skepticism about each candidate's conservative credentials.