Poll: Hillary And Rudy Lead, F. Thompson In Third
A new AP-Ipsos poll shows Hillary Clinton leading on the Democratic side nationally with 33%, followed by Barack Obama at 21%, non-candidate Al Gore at 20%, and John Edwards with 12%. Among Republicans Rudy Giuliani has 27%, John McCain 19%, Fred Thompson 17%, and Mitt Romney 10%.

Thompson Campaign And Iowa GOPer Meeting About Straw Poll
Aides to Fred Thompson are reportedly meeting in Washington today with Iowa GOP chair Chuck Laudner, where they will discuss whether or not the former Senator will compete in the August straw poll. If Thompson competes, it could breathe new life into an event whose significance could have been effectively over, thanks to the pullouts by Rudy Giuliani and John McCain.

Edwards Campaign Stands By Support From Danny Glover
Edwards spokesman Eric Schultz has responded to any controversy about Edwards' campaign appearances with actor Danny Glover, who is a vocal supporter of Hugo Chavez. Schultz says, "John Edwards does not have to agree with someone on every issue to stand with them on the ones that he does. Danny Glover and John Edwards agree that workers need rights, 37 million people in this country should not live in poverty and we need real universal health care. Just like John Edwards has nothing to do with Lethal Weapon movies 1-4, he also has nothing to do with Hugo Chavez."

Poll: Nearly Half Of Americans Know About John Edwards' $400 Haircut
For the sake of comparison, guess how that stacks up against the percentage of Americans who know that Saddam didn't have WMDs? The startling numbers on both are here.

Martinez Hits Rudy And Romney On Immigration
Senator Mel Martinez (R-FL), the Republican National Committee chairman, is publicly criticizing two of his party's presidential candidates, Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney, over their opposition to the stalled immigration bill, saying "They're wrong in just criticizing" the measure and not offering their own solutions. Martinez also worries about the GOP's fortunes if the party continues to alienate Hispanic voters. "We paid a political price in the last election cycle," Martinez said. "If we get the same type of Hispanic support in the next election cycle than we did in the last, there's no way we could elect a Republican president."

McCain: Immigration Bill Failure A Win For The Status Quo
John McCain told an Iowa crowd that the Senate's failure to move ahead with an immigration ultimately means that the current situation — of unprotected borders and unenforced laws — will continue as usual. "Well, my friends, because we didn't [pass immigration reform], then, as I said, several hundred people will cross the Arizona border today and into Arizona and go around the country, and several hundred tomorrow and then the next day," McCain said.

Richardson Condemns Failure Of Immigration Bill
Bill Richardson, who had opposed the immigration bill due to the nature of the guest-worker program among other reasons, put out a statement hitting the Senate for failing to pass an amended version. "The collapse of this important legislation demonstrates a tragic breakdown of lawmakers' ability to build compromise and the President's ability to work with Congress to get things done..." Richardson said. "We need an immigration plan that secures our borders, creates a tough but fair path to legalization for those already here, penalizes employers who knowingly hire illegal workers, makes families the priority, and engages Mexico to help work with us to solve this problem."

New Hampshire On Verge Of Making Abortion Law History
New Hampshire is poised to become the first state ever to repeal a law requiring parental notification for minors getting an abortion. The state Senate has just voted 15-9 for the repeal, following the House vote of 226-130 for repeal. Democratic Governor John Lynch has indicated he will sign it. The law was passed about four years ago, and has never been enforced due to a court challenge.

Richardson Applauds Judge In Paris Hilton Case
Bill Richardson and Mothers Against Drunk Driving CEO Chuck Hurley have written a letter to Los Angeles County Superior Court Judge Michael T. Sauer, thanking him for sending Paris Hilton to jail. "Early release from prison sends the message that drunk driving is acceptable, but we are also concerned that the early release of any drunk driver – high profile or not – poses a risk to the general public," they wrote. They also called for the wider adoption of a law that Richardson signed in New Mexico, calling for the installation of ignition interlocks for convicted drunk drivers. Ignition interlocks are breathalyzer devices installed into cars, and only enable the ignition if the driver first passes the sobriety test.

Gingrich: GOP Nominee Must Break Sharply With Bush
Former House speaker Newt Gingrich said today that any nominated for the Republican ticket will have to break sharply with the Bush Administration: "If the Republicans run a stand-pat presidential candidate who ends up being on defense for all of September and October and who is seen by the country as representing four more years, the fact is that Republicans are not going to" win, Gingrich told the American Enterprise Institute.

Brownback to Romney: I'll Fight In The Straw Poll
Sam Brownback warned Mitt Romney today that he can expect a fight in the Ames straw poll this August even though frontrunners Rudy Giuliani and John McCain have said they won't participate. "This is not a coronation," Brownback said in a telephone interview with The Associated Press.

Immigration Deal Not Dead, According To Senate Dealmakers
The Senators that negotiated the bipartisan immigration deal held a press conference this morning to let everyone know they are trying to resuscitate the flagging legislation.

Fred Thompson Schedules First South Carolina Visit
Fred Thompson will be headed to South Carolina on June 27, for a state Republican Party fundraiser. At least 200 people are expected to attend, at a minimum donation of $50 each.

Richardson Shadows Average Man To Experience Normal Life
Bill Richardson went to the home of single dad, social worker and average Joe Mark Fitzgerald yesterday as part of an effort to court the gigantic Service Employees International Union, which has made the visits a prerequisite of its endorsement for the Democratic presidential nomination. The AP reports that "Fitzgerald joked that the baby didn't throw any food at Richardson so that was good."

Wyoming U.S. Attorney Resigns, Rumored To Be Seeking Thomas' Senate Seat
U.S. Attorney for Wyoming Matthew Mead has submitted his resignation, effective immediately. The Washington Post's Paul Kane speculates that Mead may try to put himself in the running for the seat of the late Sen. Craig Thomas (R-WY), who died of leukemia early this week.

Marchand Will Quit NH Senate Race If Shaheen Runs
In New Hampshire, Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand says he will quit his campaign for the Senate if former Governor Jeanne Shaheen gets in the race, as some high-ranking Dems are trying to recruit her to do.

John Edwards: I've "Never Heard Of PETA" — Opposes Vegetarian Agenda
At a campaign stop in a New Hampshire bookstore, John Edwards was asked a question about animal-rights group PETA, People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals. "I can honestly say I have never heard of PETA," said Edwards. "They don't want people to eat meat? Well I am not in favor of that."

Here's some cheery news for a Friday. Buried in the new Fox News poll is a startling number that doesn't reflect terribly well on the priorities of our political media:

From the new Fox poll of registered voters:

32. Do you happen to know which presidential candidate has been in the news recently for paying four hundred dollars for a haircut?

Edwards 44%
Hillary 2%
Obama 1%
Other 1%
Don't know 53%

So astonishingly, nearly half of respondents knew about Edwards' haircut and were able to volunteer his name off the top of their heads, as it were.

So just for the fun of it, we went and dug up the most recent poll we could find on the question of whether people know that Saddam didn't have WMDs.

Read more »

Rudy Giuliani is now slamming John Edwards and other Dems for their "liberal mindset" on terrorism and their misunderstanding of the terror threat.

But as recently as last month, Giuliani agreed with one of Edwards' fundamental points: The uselessness of the phrase "war on terror."

From CNN,

In a piece that is likely to generate some chatter in campaign circles, The New York Times has a long look at the Edwards campaign coming in this Sunday's magazine. The piece, which has just gone up online, argues that the Edwards campaign is "joyless" and is hampered by a sense that the campaign is little more than a vehicle for him to discuss his signature issue of poverty.

"Everything else in the campaign, Edwards seems to think, all these carefully orchestrated photo ops and drop-bys and van rides with the media, is the kind of empty political theater from which he declared himself liberated after his last presidential run," writer Matt Bai opines. "He gives the impression that he simply endures it."

More nuggets from the article as we find them.

Fred Thompson's planning his first New Hampshire event.

According to The New Hampshire Union Leader: "Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson will make his first visit to New Hampshire as a potential presidential candidate later this month, a high-ranking Republican says."

Thompson has apparently agreed to appear at a June 28 fund-raiser in Bedford for the state Senate Republican PAC.

As noted below, Rudy attacked John Edwards over terrorism today, hitting the Dem for the speech he gave yesterday unveiling his anti-terror policies.

But before getting too caught up in the politics of this, it's important to note that Rudy is making a substantive argument about terrorism that -- as absurdly simplistic as it is -- needs to be rebutted.

Rudy:

"We are not in a war, where the root cause of this war is poverty. Bin Laden comes from one of the richest families in the world," Giuliani added. "Mohamed Atta, who was the guy principally responsible for 9/11 was based in Germany and he was well educated. I don't think he was exactly drinking dirty water. And the reality is, is that [Dems] are coming at it from their liberal mindset of what must cause crime and they are not wrong about that. But terrorism is not caused by poverty. The Islamic terrorist movement, the root cause of it has to do with ideology and a perversion of religion, an idea that they are intolerant of the way we live. And to be a leader, if you lack clarity it is very very dangerous."

The Rudy game plan here, we think, is to refight the war with liberalism he fought over crime in New York City in the 1990s.

Read more »

"If George Bush came up with motherhood and apple pie, people would be against it."

-- Republican New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, quoted by The Politicker, commenting on the President's unpopularity today.

Okay, this is getting interesting -- the Rudy Giuliani vs. John Edwards war is heating up today.

Rudy just appeared on a radio show and blasted Edwards over the Dem's speech on terrorism yesterday. Rudy:

"He's gonna restructure the military, which I guess means new uniforms, he's gonna rely on proven methods of intelligence gathering, which I imagine nobody else would rely on," said Giuliani on the Dennis Miller Radio Show today.

"He's gonna hold, catch this one, hold regular meetings with military leaders, I guess no president has ever done that before, I recall seeing lots of pictures of presidents holding meetings with military leaders."

You probably were aware that Rudy was being sarcastic there. Rudy also said a few other things about how Edwards' take on terror is a reflection of his "liberal mindset."

In response, the Edwards campaign continued tying Rudy to Bush:

"Sounds like Karl Rove is writing Rudy Giuliani's script these days -- all fear and no substance. If voters want four more years of George W. Bush's disastrous foreign policy, which has left us with more terrorists and fewer allies, then Giuliani is the guy. But if Americans want a smart, mission-focused approach to shutting down terrorists and keeping America safe, John Edwards is their next commander-in-chief."

The "more terrorists and fewer allies" is a good formulation, and describing Rudy as being willing to continue Bush's war seems sound enough. But the Edwards camp probably will need to respond to some of the substance of Rudy's attack in a bit more detail if this continues, rather than letting him frame the discussion about Edwards' views.

Meanwhile, worth noting: The back and forth probably benefits both candidates by boosting them with their respective primary electorates, which is probably why both sides are happy to play this game.

Some interesting new poll numbers from Gallup suggest that the 2008 Presidential election will be all about Iraq -- and that candidates who favor withdrawal timetables may head into the general election with a sizeable advantage over the pro-war candidates.

The Gallup survey finds that an astonishing 75% -- that would be three out of four voters -- say that the Iraq War will be "extremely" or "very" important in determining their vote.

Memo to Chuck Schumer: These numbers would seem to suggest that you may have been mistaken when you asserted recently that the 2008 elections wouldn't turn on Iraq.

The poll also finds that 58% of overall respondents -- and 61% of independents -- say they're "more likely" to vote for a candidate who "only supports legislation on the war that includes a timetable for removing U.S. troops from Iraq." Only 36% say they're "less likely" to vote for someone who only supports such legislation. (Interestingly, the cutting off funding option is overwhelmingly opposed in the poll.)

Memo to Rudy Giuliani: If these numbers are any indication, John Edwards may have been right yesterday when he said yesterday that you would "never be President" if you continued embracing George Bush's policies.

Only a small minority of Dems agree with Hillary's contention that we are safer today than we were before 9/11, if a new poll is to be believed.

The question of whether we're safer has emerged as a central sticking point in the Democratic Primary, with Barack Obama and John Edwards both taking on Hillary over the issue by arguing that we're not safer. The Clinton campaign has countered that we are indeed safer thanks to domestic security efforts, and her spokesperson, Howard Wolfson, has even argued that the "vast majority" of Democratic primary voters, and even of Americans in general, agree with Hillary.

Not so, according to this new Rasmussen poll. It finds that only 29% of Democrats, and only 48% of Americans overall, believe this.

McCain Losing Some Support To Thompson
The Washington Post has a story about how some of John McCain's supporters could defect to Fred Thompson, focusing on Washington lawyer John Dowd, who has been a McCain supporter ever since representing him during the Keating Five scandal. Mitt Romney has also lost some supporters to Thompson, but that has come mainly out of Thompson's home state of Tennessee.

Thompson Campaign: Over $350,000 In First 48 Hours
Ryan Sager reports that Fred Thompson's nascent campaign has announced that in the first 48 hours after launching their www.imwithfred.com Web site, the "testing the waters" committee has taken in $352,323.00 from 3,360 contributors.

Giuliani Applauds Failure Of Immigration Bill
Rudy Giuliani released a statement on the immigration bill's stalling. "This bill failed to guarantee a uniform, tamper-proof, biometric identification card, a single nation-wide database of foreigners in our country, and did not mandate the full implementation of a biometric check-in, check-out system," Rudy is quoted. "We can and must guarantee the American people that we know who is coming in and out of our country."

Salazar Holds Out Hope On Immigration
The Senate failed a key cloture vote on immigration legislation yesterday and although Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) said he will let the bill come back to the floor, most have declared its fundamental compromise itself now compromised by a vote that put a sunset on the guest worker program. The parties have already started to heap the blame on each other. Sen. Ken Salazar (D-CO) holds out hope: "No, it's not dead. Defeat is not an option," Salazar said.

Obama Donates Money From Indicted Pizza King
Barack Obama has donated $16,500 from his campaign to charity — the amount originally donated to his federal campaigns by two business partners of Antoin "Tony" Rezko, owner of a pizza restaurant chain and longtime patron of Illinois Democrats, who is now indicted for influence peddling.

Giuliani Has Most Lobbyist Bundlers
The Politico reports that Rudy Giuliani has accepted bundled contributions from 20 Washington lobbyists, despite campaigning as a Washington outsider. That is more than John McCain, who has 12, and Hillary Clinton, with 6.

Biden Late to Debate He Organized
Joe Biden had been calling on other candidates to join him in an Iraq debate for the past few weeks, and he finally got his wish when Mike Gravel and Dennis Kucinich gathered with him at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. Biden, however, was stuck on Capital Hill duking it out over the immigration bill, and arrived an hour late to the 90 minute debate.

Romney Leads In Another New Hampshire Poll
A new poll from Franklin Pierce College has Mitt Romney leading the Republican pack in New Hampshire with 28%. Rudy Giuliani and John McCain are statistically tied for second, with 18% for Rudy and 17% for McCain.

Clinton Tries to Draw Yuppies, Ends Up With Boomers
Hillary Clinton threw a party in a Washington, D.C. parking lot dubbed "Club 44" aimed at young people. The event, advertised as an event where you should "wear your jeans," featured American Idol runner-up Katherine McPhee. The Republican National Committee was there too and quoted McPhee as saying, "That was kind of lame, I have to say."

Conservative Group Attacks Joe Scarborough
Concerned Women for America president Wendy Wright is lambasting MSNBC host Joe Scarborough for jokingly speculating on whether or not Fred Thompson's wife Jeri "works the pole." "Joe Scarborough’s banter reduces an accomplished and respectable woman to a 'bimbo' and reflects attempts to mainstream porn into everyday culture," said Wright. A spokesman for MSNBC said the outrage was "another example of a statement being taken out of context in the blogosphere." In an earlier segment on that show, Scarborough had discussed pole-dancing as a fitness routine, and talked about the subject with a female triathlete.

Alabama GOP State Senator Hits Fellow Lawmaker On Chamber Floor
In Alabama, Republican State Senator Charles Bishop punched Democratic Senator Lowell Barron during a heated argument about a matter of legislation. Bishop is unrepentant, claiming Barron called him a "son of a bitch." "I responded with my right hand," Barron said. "I hit him wherever I could get my right hand on him." And while Bishop apologized for the violence taking place on the Senate floor, he did not apologize for the punch itself: "If he calls me that again, it will happen again."

Iowa GOPer: Straw Poll Pullout "A Kick In The Shins, Or A Little Higher"
Iowa Republican Party executive director Chuck Laudner is not happy with the decisions by Rudy Giuliani and John McCain to withdraw from this August's Iowa straw poll. "This event helps us pay for Caucus Night and all those activities, plus it helps us fund our state house and senate races," Lauder told Radio Iowa. Laudner went even further, characterizing the pullouts as "a kick in the shins, or a little higher, right to the Iowa Republican Party."

Rudy Camp To Edwards: You're A Loser
Ben Smith was able to get a comment from the Rudy Giuliani campaign, regarding John Edwards' warning that Rudy would "never be president" if he continued to embrace the Bush foreign policy record. Rudy spokeswoman Katie Levinson: "John Edwards' track record of predicting election outcomes speaks for itself."

John Edwards Forced To Comment On Paris Hilton
A reporter asked John Edwards his opinion on Paris Hilton's early release from jail. His answer: "Um, I’m gonna stay out of the Paris Hilton story. (Edwards laughs.) Although I saw it seems to be completely dominating the news, I had the television on just before I came down. Uh, I still do believe, without regard to Paris Hilton, that, uh, we have two Americas and I think what’s important is, it’s obvious that the problem exists."

No Cloture on Immigration Bill, More Debate
Saying that more Republican amendments should reach the floor, Republican backers sided with the rest of their party to soundly block cloture, with only 33 votes in favor. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said the bill has limited time left on the floor.

S.C. County Chairman Quits McCain Campaign Over Immigration
John McCain’s Aiken County South Carolina chairman, David Nix, said he is leaving the campaign because of McCain's support for the immigration bill before Congress: "There is a very wide gulf between what I believe as a conservative South Carolina Republican and what Senator McCain is pushing for with this bill. It is an extremely weighty matter," Nix said.

Fox News Poll: Hillary Is Likable — But Not As Much As Others
Despite her reputation for being divisive, 56% of respondents in the latest Fox News poll think Hillary Clinton is likable, compared to only 41% who say she isn't. On the other hand, all the candidates score better than that, topped off by Barack Obama's 76%-13%. And a sign for possible worry: Hillary is seen as "honest and trustworthy" by only a 47%-45% margin. But then again, Hillary has been dragged through several nationally-watched general election campaigns, with all the mud that came with them — while the others haven't had to endure that sort of test. Hillary leads the Dem field overall with 36%, followed by Obama at 23%, non-candidate Al Gore with 14%, and John Edwards at 12%. Without Gore, the race becomes Hillary 41%, Obama 26%, Edwards 15%.

Poll: Edwards Barely Ahead In Home State
A new poll by Democratic polling firm Public Policy Polling shows John Edwards with a narrow lead in his home state of North Carolina. Edwards has 30% of the Democratic primary vote, followed by Hillary Clinton's 26%, and Barack Obama at 22%.

Romney Disparages Long-Term Iraq Presence
Mitt Romney said today he does not support a large permanent U.S. presence in Iraq. "Our objective would not be a Korea-type setting with 25-50,000 troops on a near permanent basis remaining in bases in Iraq," Romney said. "I think we would hope to turn Iraq security over to their own military and their own security forces, and if presence in the region is important for us than we have other options that are nearby."

House Passes Stem-Cell Research Bill
The House of Representatives voted 247-176 to increase funding for embryonic stem-cell research. The Senate has already okayed the bill, setting the course for the bill to be delivered to President Bush. The Hill notes that President Bush is widely expected to veto it, as he did on a similar measure last year. This new version also included funding for research into finding methods that could yield embryonic-like stem cells without actually killing embryos.

Poll: Americans Lean Dem By Wide Margin
The new AP-Ipsos poll has a fascinating number. Respondents were asked they identified as Democrats, Republicans or independents, and then independents were asked which way they lean. With leaners, 54% of Americans are Democrats, compared to only 36% Republicans — an almost 20-point Dem margin. This is likely a product of recent Washington scandals and mishandling of foreign affairs by Republicans, but it could very well turn into a full-fledged political realignment if the Democrats can sustain it.

In Nebraska, Hagel Challenger Declares
Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning (R) has formally kicked off his campaign for Senate against Chuck Hagel. Bruning will base his campaign on opposition to Hagel's votes against the Bush Administration on the Iraq War — a sort of "Mirror, Mirror" version of the Ned Lamont campaign. "Nebraskans want a leader who will stand with our troops and military commanders, who will enforce our laws and secure our borders," Bruning said in his campaign announcement.

Romney Internal Poll Shows Him With 17 Lead
The survey of likely caucus-goers taken at the end of last month shows Romney with a commanding lead over his rivals, including McCain, 17 points behind, who was likely hurt by his immigration proposal, and Giuliani, 20 points behind, who was likely hurt by Fred Thompson's entry into the race.

Reid: Tim Johnson Will Be Back By September
Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD) is due back in the Senate by September at the latest, according to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. "We are letting his doctors take the lead. He's getting stronger and stronger every day, but we don't have a definitive date," said Julianne Fisher, Johnson's spokeswoman. The Senator has reportedly recovered 90 percent of his speech ability.

Florida Representatives Join Hillary
Debbie Wasserman Shultz and Alcee Hastings, both Representatives from Florida, have joined Hillary Clinton's campaign as co-chairs.

In New Hampshire, Ex-Astronaut Officially Launches Senate Bid
Dartmouth medical professor and former astronaut Jay Buckey has officially declared his candidacy for the Senate in New Hampshire. Buckey opened campaign office in Lebanon, New Hampshire, and has hired Lebanon City councilor Karen Liot to be his campaign manager. Buckey acknowledged his outsider, first-time candidate status, but is not deterred: "If our system is at a point where you have to be either politically connected or well financed to be successful in this field, then we're in more trouble than I thought."

Longshot Tommy Thompson's Plan Thrown Off By Rudy/McCain Ames Pullout
Tommy Thompson's campaign plan has been built around visiting Iowa at least once every week, and hoping to break through with a strong showing the Iowa straw poll. But with both Rudy Giuliani and John McCain have pulling out out — rendering the event practically meaningless — Thompson says, "Now that they're not in, it doesn't have as much value, unless I can turn it into something. And that's what I'm still thinking about."

Big Shocker: Tancredo Won't Attend Spanish-Language Debate
"I can say with 100 percent certainty that we will not be attending," Tancredo spokesman Alan Moore told The Miami Herald, regarding a Spanish-language debate being held by Univision. Only Chris Dodd and Bill Richardson have accepted the invitation — they're the only ones who speak Spanish. Translators would be allowed at the debate, but one has to think that Spanish-speakers would have a natural advantage with the audience.

A new Fox News poll offers some interesting stats on the Presidential race. First of all, Hillary Clinton continues to lead the Dem field with 36%, Barack Obama 23%, non-candidate Al Gore at 14%, and actual candidate John Edwards with 12%. Without Gore, the race becomes Hillary 41%, Obama 26%, Edwards 15%. On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani has 22%, John McCain 15%, Fred Thompson 13%, and Mitt Romney 10%.

Then come the general election horse-race numbers. Note that Hillary and Obama seem to do equally well against the Republicans in the match-ups we're shown here:

Giuliani (R) 45%, Clinton (D) 42%
Giuliani (R) 46%, Obama (D) 41%
Clinton (D) 43%, McCain (R) 43%
Clinton (D) 46%, Romney (R) 36%
Clinton (D) 48%, F. Thompson (R) 38%
Obama (D) 47%, F. Thompson (R) 34%

Another number: Despite her reputation for being divisive, 56% of respondents think Hillary Clinton is likable, compared to only 41% who say she isn't. On the other hand, all the candidates score better than that, topped off by Barack Obama's 76%-13%. And a sign for possible worry: Hillary is seen as "honest and trustworthy" by only a 47%-45% margin. But then again, Hillary has been dragged through several general election campaigns' worth of mud — while the others haven't had to endure that sort of acid test.

In a possible sign of more concern in the Hillary campaign about Iowa, her national campaign co-chair, Tom Vilsack, is meeting privately in New York next week with the Hillary camp's top fundraisers, according to an internal campaign message that went out to big Hillary contributors.

A source has forwarded us the invite that went out to her "Hillraisers," or people who are committed to raising more than $25,000 for Hillary, a few days ago:

You are cordially invited to a special HillRaisers briefing with

Governor Tom Vilsack

Hillary for President National Campaign Co-Chair

Monday, June 11, 2007

12.00PM – 1.30PM

New York City

Exact location will be provided upon RSVP

One possible reason for the gathering -- though this is speculation -- could be that Vilsack's coming to New York to carry the message that Hillary's got a tough race on her hands in Iowa. She's trailing in the state in many polls.

Such a message would remind her fundraisers that their support will be critical to her efforts to win the state, perhaps prodding them to ratchet up their fundraising efforts on her behalf. The Hillary and Obama campaigns are feverishly raising money in hopes of outdoing each other when the next round of fundraising numbers are released.

On the other hand, Vilsack is her national campaign co-chair, so the meeting needn't necessarily be purely Iowa-related.

Still, last month, Vilsack did tell a private gathering of donors that the Hillary campaign is "not winning" in Iowa.

New Pew poll out today: Approval of Congress has slipped from 39% in January to 34% today.

New Fox News poll, also out today: Approval of Congress has slipped from 32% in January to 29 percent.

One very interesting footnote: In the Fox poll, less Democrats than Republicans approve of the Dem-Controlled Congress, 28%-33%. Could that be because of Congress' failure thus far to stall the Iraq war?

Another interesting moment from John Edwards' press conference after his terrorism speech today. Check out how tightly Edwards -- responding to a question -- yoked Rudy to our sinking President:

"If Mayor Giuliani believes that what President Bush has done is good, and wants to embrace it and run a campaign for the Presidency saying, 'I will give you four more years of what this president has given you,' then he’s allowed to do that. He’ll never be elected President of the United States, but he’s allowed to do that."

Simple as simple can be.

Ben Smith comments: "it's particularly nice for Edwards to be exchanging blows with the Republican frontrunner." It's also nice to see someone express so neatly the astonishing juxtaposition between (a) the extent to which Bush is disliked by America; and (b) the tight and never-ending embrace of his policies by the GOP candidates.

An interesting moment at the press conference John Edwards just held following a speech he gave today on terrorism. Edwards said:

"It doesn't help, by the way, that the Republican presidential candidates seem intent on trying to one up each other, each of them trying to become a bigger, badder George Bush. I think they want to become George Bush on steroids. I hope that they and all the candidates, both Democratic and Republican, will direct their attention to offering real plans for stopping terrorism, instead of just political rhetoric."

"George Bush on steroids" -- thanks for the image, John! Also note the apparent shot at his Dem rivals.

This is interesting: The publishers of the new book about Hillary by Jeff Gerth and Don Van Natta that hits stores tomorrow are promoting what may be the book's shakiest assertion as its top revelation.

Here's a chunk of the full-page-ad running in today's New York Times about the book:

Box added. As you can see, the publishers are promoting the following at the top of the list of the book's revelations:

Previously undisclosed details about the Clintons' multi-decade plan for power -- including 8 years in the White House for Bill and 8 years for Hillary

Here's why this is interesting: The notion that the Clintons secretly plotted two terms each for both Bill and Hillary may be on shakier ground than perhaps any other key fact in the book. It's already been directly disputed by the only person who supposedly knew about this straight from Bill -- respected historian Taylor Branch. What's more, it's directly contradicted by Carl Bernstein's reporting in his own Hillary book, which is also just out.

Yet here the publisher is using it as the book's lead selling point.

This reminds us yet again of one of the real problems with books like this: Reporters who ink big book deals are under tremendous pressure to deliver a big "get" that will help the publisher promote the heck out of the book. Whatever happened in this particular case, it's obvious that this pressure in general gives reporters an incentive to do less, rather than more, to nail down whether a revelation such as this one -- which is based on less-than-impeccable sourcing -- is actually true or not.

Take a look at this: It's a chunk of the full-page-ad running in today's New York Times about Her Way, the new book about Hillary by Jeff Gerth and Don Van Natta that hits stores tomorrow.

As you can see, the publishers are promoting the following as the book's key revelation:

Previously undisclosed details about the Clintons' multi-decade plan for power -- including 8 years in the White House for Bill and 8 years for Hillary

Here's why this is interesting: The notion that the Clintons' planned two terms for both Bill and Hillary is on very shaky ground -- perhaps more than any other fact in the book. It's already been directly disputed by the one primary witness who supposedly was told this by Bill -- respected historian Taylor Branch. What's more, it's directly contradicted by Carl Bernstein's reporting in his own Hillary book, which is also just out.

And finally, in response to Branch's denial, one of the book's own authors, Don Van Natta, denied in an interview that the eight-years-each plan was one of the book's central revelations. Yet here the publisher is using it as the book's lead selling point.

"Today, we know two unequivocal truths about the results of Bush's approach -- there are more terrorists and we have fewer allies."

-- John Edwards. The quote is from advance excerpts of a speech that Edwards will deliver today on terrorism, in which he'll argue that contra Hillary we are less safe today than we were before 9/11. More excerpts from the speech after the jump.

Read more »

New Associated Press/Ipsos poll:

Public approval of the job President Bush is doing now matches its all-time low, with widespread discontent over how he is handling the war in Iraq, efforts against terrorism and domestic issues, an AP-Ipsos poll released Thursday said.

Only 32 percent said they were satisfied with how Bush is handling his job, the same low point the measure hit last January.

Barely one in five think the country's heading in the right direction -- the worst in AP polling since December 2003.

Joe Klein has been willing at times to respond to our questions before, so we're posting this in hopes of getting an answer to a question about his new column attacking liberal bloggers.

In the column -- which is a broad attack on the liberal blogosphere as allegedly "bullying" and "intolerant" and is already stirring a backlash -- Klein refers to largely unnamed liberal bloggers as "extreme" or "extremists."

This is interesting, and here's why. Not long ago Klein did a post defining what he views as left wing extremism. In it, he wrote that left wing extremists hold "many, but not necessarily all" of a whole list of views.

So we wanted to ask this of Klein in light of today's column labeling unnamed lib bloggers as "extremists."

Can he name three prominent and/or influential liberal bloggers who are "extremists" by his own definition of the term -- that is, who hold many but not all of those views he laid out?

And if he doesn't want to or can't, how can he claim that the column is anything but, well, complete fiction? How can he defend writing it at all? And how does he square it with his own professed disdain for people who traffic in "all opinion and very little information"?

Though we obviously don't think much of attacks such as the one in this week's column, we do think it's a good thing that he's been willing to engage with the blogosphere to some extent.

So we're hoping he'll do it again here, and we'll let you know if or when he answers.

Update: Edited slightly from original.

Romney Camp: We've Already Won The Iowa Straw Poll
Romney campaign spokesman Kevin Madden put out a press release declaring victory in the Iowa straw poll, after Rudy Giuliani and John McCain announced that they were pulling out. "Campaigns that have decided to abandon Ames are likely doing so out of a recognition that their organizations are outmatched and their message falls flat with Republican voters in Iowa," Madden wrote. "It looks as if we just beat those campaigns in Iowa two months earlier than we had planned on beating them."

Clinton Fundraising Rocky At Times
The New York Times reports on confidential documents that show fundraisers for Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign have at times slipped under even the lowest expectations, likely the result of a battle with top rival Barack Obama for Democratic funds.

McCain Advisor: I Will Quit If Dems Nominate Obama
Mark McKinnon, a former Democrat and now senior media advisor to John McCain, wrote a memo saying he would leave the campaign if Barack Obama wins the Democratic presidential nomination. McKinnon wrote that he disagrees with Obama's policies but may have been inspired by his biography, and the potential of an Obama presidency to change the country's image.

Edwards Speaking Today on Terrorism
John Edwards is set to deliver a speech today in New York City, where he will say that President Bush has created "more terrorists" and his own anti-terror strategy would "shut down terrorists". "Today, we know two unequivocal truths about the results of Bush's approach — there are more terrorists and we have fewer allies," he will say according to prepared remarks.

Quinnipiac: Fred Thompson Places Distant Second To Rudy In Florida
A new Quinnipiac poll shows Rudy Giuliani continuing to dominate the GOP field in Florida with 31%. However, Fred Thompson has moved into a distant second place with 14%, followed by by John McCain at 10%. Thompson now leads candidates who have been running a lot longer than he has. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has 34%, Barack Obama 16%, non-candidate Al Gore 13%, and John Edwards 11%.

Rudy To Unveil Health Plan
Rudy Giuliani's health plan will reportedly involve moving people away from employer-based health insurance, and transition people into being players in an individual-based insurance market. Giuliani's plan would not end employer-based insurance, but would provide incentives for individuals to seek out their own health plans.

Graham Attacks Obama in Senate
Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) criticized an amendment championed by Barack Obama that would make it easier for immigrants to sponsor family members as one that would prevent the bill's passage and cause difficulty for Republicans who have supported it. "When you're out on the campaign trail, my friend, tell them about why we can't come together. This is why," Graham said.

Huckabee Wants More Debate On Education
Mike Huckabee, who spent a considerable portion of the last debate being asked about his disbelief in evolution, says there should be more discussion about education issues in the debates instead. "I don't see a lot of people sitting around their kitchen tables wondering what the next president will do about teaching evolution in school, but the entire issue of education should have been addressed," Huckabee said.

Richardson: I Shot An Oryx
Bill Richardson tells the Associated Press that he is a recreational hunter and has snagged an elk and an oryx, a long-haired antelope — though he prefers avian prey: "You know I'm a little impatient and when you're doing oryx and elk, you tend to get one or two shots. You've got to find them. But with dove, you have a lot of opportunities."

Former NH Dem Chair: Draft Shaheen For Senate
Former New Hampshire Democratic chair Kathy Sullivan has launched an effort to draft former Governor Jeanne Shaheen to run for the U.S. Senate against incumbent Republican John Sununu, to whom Shaheen narrowly lost in 2002. "I'd like to see a rematch between Governor Shaheen and John Sununu, and I'd like to see a fair race, which we did not have the last time," Sullivan said, referring to the jamming of phones at Democratic offices on election day 2002. The current Democratic candidates are Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand, college professor and former astronaut Jay Buckey, and longtime Democratic power-broker Katrina Swett — about whom we've commented before.

Sullivan: Kick Gravel Off The Island
Kathy Sullivan has also offered her take on the Democratic debates. "I believe that going forward the networks should politely dis-invite Mr. Gravel. He just detracts from the time from the other candidates," she said. "He's not a serious candidate." And regarding Chris Dodd's ire against Wolf Blitzer, Sullivan said, "I think Chris Dodd's campaign has every right to be extremely angry at how Wolf Blitzer did not call on Chris Dodd until 25 minutes in the debate. What made it worse was that Blitzer went back to some of the candidates several times before he went to Dodd."

West Virginia GOP Result Could Influence Country On February 5
The Hill notes that the West Virginia Republican Party's choice of method for picking their presidential delegates — a single state convention held on February 5 — could lead to the result being announced as early as 2:30 p.m. ET that day. And with voting going on throughout the country on the de facto national primary day, a mid-day victory could boost that candidate in all the other states.

LaHood May Resign To Head College
Congressman Ray LaHood (R-IL) is considering resigning from Congress to become president of Bradley University in Peoria, Illinois, his alma mater. LaHood said he will make his decision in "ten days to two weeks." A special election for his seat could potentially be competitive, though the district does have a definite Republican lean.

Duckworth Considering Another Congressional Bid
2006 Congressional nominee Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) is considering a rematch against GOP Congressman Peter Roskam, who defeated her 51%-49% in the open-seat race. However, as Roll Call notes that Duckworth could be weakened by continued discord between the Democratic establishment and the local activists, who backed Christine Cegelis in the primary last year. "For a Democrat to win in that area, they’re going to need to heal that tension,” Cegelis said.

Kucinich Holds Hearing on Thermal Expansion of Gasoline
Dennis Kucinich will hold a Congressional hearing tomorrow on how the oil companies account for the lower density of gasoline during hot summer months, in terms of commercial transactions. Thermal expansion is a property of physics.

Novak: Thompson Almost Said He's Pro-Choice
Robert Novak noticed something else funny about Fred Thompson's interview last night with Sean Hannity: "While endorsing a reversal of Roe v. Wade, Thompson appeared ready to say that he did not approve of criminalizing abortion. Hannity stepped in and interrupted, saving him from a gaffe."

Fox News Versus the Democrats
Some hilarious new developments you won't want to miss.

John Edwards Campaigns With Danny Glover
The right-wingers will eat this one up: John Edwards went campaigning in South Carolina with actor Danny Glover, star of such movies as Lethal Weapon, The Color Purple, and The Royal Tenenbaums. Glover also supports ... Hugo Chavez.

Romney: Thompson Has "Hollywood Aura"
Speaking to a New Hampshire crowd, Mitt Romney said he would welcome the entrance of former Senator Fred Thompson to the race, saying he would bring a "Hollywood aura" to the campaign. We suspect there's a backhanded compliment here — since when was "Hollywood" a good buzz word for national Republican primary voters?

Romney Laments Bush's Damage To U.S. Reputation
"I do think that we have suffered over the past several years for a number of reasons, and I think you probably know what they are..." Mitt Romney said a campaign stop in New Hampshire. "There has been the perception that we have not been as open and participative with other nations as is our normal approach."

Whitehouse Backs Clinton For White House
Freshman Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), whose experience as a former U.S. Attorney has helped raise his profile in light of the current scandals and Judiciary Committee hearings, is supporting Hillary Clinton. "Her smart, tough, experienced leadership will be critically important as we work to bring our troops home from Iraq, reform our health care system to cover more American families, and solve the energy challenges of the 21st century," Whitehouse is quoted in a press release.

Two Polls Have Bad News For Immigration Bill
A new Gallup poll shows that 58% of respondents don't know enough about the immigration bill to form an opinion — but among those who do, it runs 30% opposed to only 11% for it. And Rasmussen finds that given the choice between this bill and no bill at all, 49% back no bill at all, to only 32% for the bill. On a favor/oppose question, the bill gets 23% for to 50% against.

Gingrich: 4-1 Odds Against Me Running
Newt Gingrich has told the Associated Press that he doesn't see an entrance into the presidential race as especially likely for him, saying the odds are "4-1" against it. On the other hand, he still plans to organize workshops in all 99 Iowa counties, and attend this August's straw poll.

Boyda Knows She's Endangered
Roll Call has an interesting write-up on freshman Rep. Nancy Boyda (D-KS), who won an astonishing upset victory over incumbent Congressman Jim Ryun last year. Boyda is working hard to position herself as a centrist, and build connections across the very GOP-leaning district. "In Washington, this race gets a lot of attention, because I have the biggest target on my back," Boyda said. Ryun is mounting a comeback bid, but faces opposition in the primary from State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins. Jenkins is from the more moderate, socially liberal faction of the Kansas GOP, while Ryun is from its more conservative portion.

Hagel Challenger Set To Announce
Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning is set to officially announce tomorrow morning that he will challenge Chuck Hagel from the right in the primary. Bruning has strongly criticized Hagel for his votes against the Bush Administration on the Iraq War.

Tancredo: Immigration Bill Could Destroy GOP — And I'll Make Sure Of It
Declaring that the immigration bill could "destroy the party," Tom Tancredo said on CNN, "it's certainly going to have major ramifications, we’ll put it that way, for the party and it’s sure as heck not going to help the country." Let us remind you, Tancredo's campaign is running an online petition, where signatories pledge to oppose the re-elections of Republican Senators who support the bill. And Tancredo is now scaling back visits to Iowa and New Hampshire in favor of visits to Republican-held districts, where he'll pressure incumbents to vote against the immigration legislation or else he'll work to defeat them in 2008.

Richardson Accepts Invitation To Spanish Debate
Bill Richardson has accepted an invitation from Univision to hold a Spanish-language debate. "I challenge my fellow Democratic candidates to participate in this debate and not to find reasons to avoid it — diversity is a fundamental Democratic issue," Richardson said. They might have some good reasons to avoid it — Richardson and Chris Dodd are the only ones who speak Spanish.

The Fox News comedy gets lower and lower...

As Josh noted earlier, Fox News chief Roger Ailes was quoted today complaining about Dems boycotting the Fox-sponsored debates as follows:

"The candidates that can't face Fox, can't face Al Qaeda. And that's what's coming."

Fun stuff, to be sure. But it gets better.

Now Media Bistro has obtained a clarification of sorts of Ailes' remarks from a Fox spokesperson:

A Fox News spokesperson has further explained his remark: "Mr. Ailes was repeating a comment made to him by many friends of his who are Democrats and are disappointed that their party is not currently debating on Fox."

The Democrats of Ailes' dreams, in more ways than one...

Rudy Giuliani pulled out of the Iowa straw poll today. Now John McCain's following suit, emailing out the following:

"In light of today's news, it is clear that the Ames Straw Poll will not be a meaningful test of the leading candidates' organizational abilities, so we have decided to forego our participation in the event."

McCain, who skipped Iowa in 2000 and is regarded with suspicion by conservative activists, would almost certainly gotten trounced in the straw poll. Rudy's decision to bail gave McCain the excuse he needed to pull out.

Norman Ornstein, a resident scholar at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, has just published a long paean to the Speaker that's worth a look.

Ornstein argues that the recent lobbying reform stuff actually turned out to be an "impressive victory," and that the House leadership's approach on Iraq -- while a retreat of sorts -- actually represents a sign that she's a very skilled and impressive House Speaker in various ways.

"There are some signs at least of better times ahead for those who love Congress," Ornstein says. "And signs that Nancy Pelosi could be an exceptional Speaker."

We don't agree with some of the specifics of Ornstein's arguments. But we're highlighting his piece for a reason: It obliquely reminds us that ever since Pelosi took power, the basic assumption driving much of the media's coverage of her has been that she was certain to fail.

Read more »

Here's a key moment from last night that has gone entirely unnoticed: GOP Presidential hopeful Fred Thompson, who didn't participate in the debate but was interviewed on Fox News aferwards, dissembled badly about his abortion record to Sean Hannity.

Thompson claimed to Hannity that he's "always" thought Roe v. Wade is "wrong." In fact, he's supported it in the past. More after the jump.

Read more »

The battle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama over whether Americans are safer than before 9/11 continues simmering today with a front page piece in The New York Times.

Hillary adviser Howard Wolfson tells the paper that the voters agree with her position that we are in fact safer: “I think the vast majority of Democratic primary voters, and Americans, would agree with Senator Clinton. I think most Americans, for instance, would think that air travel is safer today than on Sept. 10.”

One person who doesn't agree: Key centrist Dem Simon Rosenberg, the head of the New Democrat Network. He writes:

"I have to admit that I am not sympathetic to Hillary's position. With DHS a mess, our military degraded, our standing in the world diminished, the Middle East in much greater turmoil than prior to 9/11, terrorism around the world on the rise, Bin Laden still on the loose, Iran moving towards nuclearization, our great ally Israel weakened, international institutions like the UN and the World Bank under assault, climate change ignored, Russia slipping back into an aggressive autocracy.....are we really safer today? Is America and the world really better off as a result of the Bush years?"

Rudy Giuliani will skip the Iowa straw poll in August, the Des Moines Register reports. A GOP candidate hasn't taken a pass on the straw poll and then gone on to win the Iowa caucuses in some three decades.

Apparently the Rudy campaign decided that the $3 million or so it would cost to participate wasn't a smart allocation of resources -- particularly since the upended primary schedule has the Rudy people banking on wins in states like California and Florida.

Marc Ambinder has some details from the conference call that Rudy campaign manager Mike DuHaime just conducted with reporters:

DuHaime noted that this strategy is unconventional, but "the bottom line is, we're going to do what we feel is right." Iowans aren't "going to make their decision based on a non-binding straw poll in August."

Yes, but what about the thousands of activists who attend that the Rudy camp would have been able to cultivate? Rudy's Iowa adviser Jim Nussle says: "When you are Giuliani and you have national name I.D., the straw poll doesn't have the same significance."

Translation: The hero-of-9/11 narrative is so overwhelmingly powerful that the usual political rules don't apply to Rudy. That, in a nutshell, seems to be the campaign's approach on a bunch of fronts. We'll see if it works.

This flagrant falsehood from Mitt Romney at last night's debate, flagged by Atrios, deserves a second look:

[I]f you're saying let's turn back the clock and Saddam Hussein had opening up his country to IAEA inspectors and they'd come in and they'd found that there were no weapons of mass destruction, had Saddam Hussein therefore not violated United Nations resolutions, we wouldn't be in the conflict we're in.

But he didn't do those things, and we knew what we knew at the point we made the decision to get in.

If the inspectors had gone in and found no WMDs, we wouldn't have gone to war?

As Atrios notes, the inspectors did go in. But what's more, they also of course reported that they didn't find any WMDs. This makes Romney's assertion all the more mendacious and pathetic.

From the The New York Times on June 18, 2003 (via Nexis):

Hans Blix, the retiring chief weapons inspector for the United Nations, has questioned in an interview why American and British forces expected to find large stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons in Iraq when it was clear that his inspectors had failed to report any such discovery.

In an interview on Tuesday in his 31st-floor offices at the UnitedNations, he said:

"What surprises me, what amazes me, is that it seems the military people were expecting to stumble on large quantities of gas, chemical weapons and biological weapons. I don't see how they could have come to such an attitude if they had, at any time, studied the reports" of present and former United Nations inspectors.

The IAEA chief, meanhwile, reported in January 2003 that there were no nukes.

Say one thing for Romney: He is one smooth liar.

Oh, those goofy John Edwards boys.

Here's a first look at a video the Edwards campaign will soon send out to reporters and supporters. It shows top Edwards advisers Joe Trippi and Jonathan Prince, trying to raise some dough and failing badly. Pie dough, that is:

The lighthearted vid is at bottom an unorthodox fundraising pitch. And whatever its effectiveness, which certainly isn't assured, it's in keeping with the Edwards campaign's promise to try and use YouTube in novel political ways, something that reflects the influence of Trippi, who of course pioneered Howard Dean's Internet-driven campaign in 2004.

It will go out to Edwards' whole list, and it closes with a message from Elizabeth Edwards, who suggests sending in some dough between now and John's birthday on June 10. "But hey -- what's wrong with now"? she asks.

The battle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama over whether the U.S. is safer today than before 9/11 continues today with a front page treatment in The New York Times.

As we reported here and here two days ago, the two campaigns have been skirmishing over Hillary's assertion at the debate

• A full transcript of last night's Republican debate is available here.

• Rich Lowry gives the win to Rudy Giuliani, "altogether the Big Man on stage, projecting the image of the kind of guy you can trust during a time of war." McCain did very well, too, Lowry says. However, "The problem he has is that his convictions can be at odds with those of most Republicans, and he had to be hurt tonight by the sheer amount of time spent on immigration ... And sometimes you could begin to hear McCain the scold creeping in, and that's not the most attractive part of his political persona."

• Andrew Sullivan said McCain gave the best performance. "So: McCain's night from my perspective, even though he may be losing the base," Sullivan writes. "Best to go down fighting, Senator."

• Jonathan Martin's verdict: "The big story out of this third debate seems to be that there is no big story. One smart observer argued that that lack of fireworks would redound to the benefit of Fred Thompson because a status quo debate reinforces a status quo race."

• Kathryn Jean Lopez, a staunch Romney backer, gives the win to Rudy: "Rudy won. After a breakout first-debate win, Romney hasn't been as good as his first showing, but he remains thoughtful and intriguing on a lot of issues. I think you look at him and Rudy and McCain and think 'these are serious people. We might be O.K. if it's one of them.'"

• Over at Fox News — for what it's worth — Frank Luntz said his focus group responded the best to Mitt Romney, and the worst to McCain out of the major candidates. Curiously, they set their chart range to max out at less than the highest possible score, perhaps just so they could say that Romney was "off the charts" at a particularly good moment:

• As we've noted, McCain had one of the best moments of the night, expressing his sympathies to a woman who lost her brother in Iraq, and making the case for continuing on.

• Rudy Giuliani absolutely stood by the Bush Administration's decision to invade Iraq. "It's unthinkable that you would leave Saddam Hussein in charge of Iraq and be able to fight the war on terror," Giuliani said. "And the problem is that we see Iraq in a vacuum. Iraq should not be seen in a vacuum. Iraq is part of the overall terrorist war against the United States."

• Ron Paul garnered loud applause for his comments on Iraq: "The sooner we come home, the better ... It was a mistake to go, so it's a mistake to stay."

• Rudy Giuliani answered his critics on abortion, before a glitch in the sound system caused by lightning — that everyone seemed to attribute to an act of God. "And my view on abortion is that it's wrong, but that ultimately government should not be enforcing that decision on a woman," Rudy said. "That is my view that I — I consult my religion. I consult my reading of the Constitution. I consult my views of what I think are important in a pluralistic society."

• Sam Brownback said he would support Rudy Giuliani if he were the nominee despite his pro-choice views, but thought the party would never nominate him. "I can support and will support the nominee of our party. But our party has stood on principles. It's a party of principles. It's not a party of personalities. We lose when we walk away from our principles."

• John McCain gave an amazingly funny rebuff to Mitt Romney, who is for making English the official language but also runs campaign ads in Spanish: "Well, first of all, Governor, muchas gracias."

• All the candidates indicated that they would support making English the official language — but as we've pointed out, Rudy's record as Mayor of New York City indicates something different.

• Most of the candidates gave ambiguous answers about whether or not they would pardon Scooter Libby, but almost all seemed to leave the option open and definitely spoke favorably towards it. The clearest "Yes" answers were from Rudy Giuliani and Tom Tancredo. Ron Paul already said at a previous debate that he would not pardon Libby.

• Mitt Romney gave the first taste of the long-awaited "JFK Speech" about his Latter-Day Saints religion:

Well, President Kennedy some time ago said he was not a Catholic running for president, he was an American running for president. And I'm happy to be a proud member of my faith. You know, I think it's a fair question for people to ask, what do you believe? And I think if you want to understand what I believe, you could recognize that the values that I have are the same values you'll find in faiths across this country. I believe in God, believe in the Bible, believe Jesus Christ is my savior. I believe that God created man in his image. I believe that the freedoms of man derive from inalienable rights that were given to us by God. And I also believe that there are some pundits out there that are hoping that I'll distance myself from my church so that that'll help me politically. And that's not going to happen.

• Rudy Giuliani ripped into the immigration deal, calling it "a typical Washington mess.... it is quite possible it will make things worse."

• John McCain shot back when Rudy Giuliani criticized his immigration deal. "Rudy, you just described our legislation," McCain said, "so I'd be glad to have further conversation with you, because it does account for people who are here illegally."

• Asked if he read the national intelligence estimate, a summary of the best evidence from 16 intelligence agencies that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction, Sam Brownback said, "I don't remember that report. I had a number of briefings and I held a number of committee hearings. At that time, I was chairing the Middle East Subcommittee on Foreign Relations. And we held hearings on this topic and what was taking place and what Saddam was doing."

• When asked what he considered President Bush's biggest mistake, Tom Tancredo said, "The president ran as a conservative and governed as a liberal. That is what has really been the basis, I think, of the distrust that has developed among the Republican base. It's well founded."

• Mitt Romney criticized the Bush administration's handling of the Iraq war. "I think we were under-prepared and under-planned for what came after we knocked down Saddam Hussein," the former Massachusetts governor said.

• Ron Paul uttered a new, dreaded "N-word" of modern American politics: "We have a lot of goodness in this country. And we should promote it, but never through the barrel of a gun. We should do it by setting good standards, motivating people and have them want to emulate us," Paul said, "But you can't enforce our goodness, like the neocons preach, with an armed force. It doesn't work."

• Duncan Hunter took a shot at CNN when touting the border-fence funding he championed in Congress: "...not that scraggly, little fence you show on CNN all the time, Wolf, that people get across so easily. If they get across my fence, we sign them up for the Olympics immediately. [LAUGHTER] We've got a big fence."

• Tommy Thompson, who served in President Bush's cabinet, said the president didn't live up to his promises: "We went to Washington to change Washington, and Washington changed us.... If we're going to spend money like as foolishly and as stupidly as the Democrats, the voters are going to vote for the professional spender — the Democrat — not the amateur spender — the Republican."

• Asked if he believed in a literal interpretation of creation as described in the Bible, Mike Huckabee said he wasn't sure: "How did He do it and when did He do it and how long did He take, I don't honestly know ... But, you know, if anybody wants to believe that they are the descendants of a primate, they are certainly welcome to do it."

• In a completely ethical interview of Fred Thompson on Sean Hannity's Fox News show, taking up a solid half of the program right after the CNN Republican debate ended, Thompson did not actually comment on the debate or draw distinctions between himself and the other Republicans. Instead, he discussed the problems the country is facing, talked up his own life story, and announced the launch of his new Web site, www.imwithfred.com.

• Chris Dodd's campaign really has it in for Wolf Blitzer. After releasing a chart to catalog an unequal distribution of time at Sunday's Democratic debate, the Dodd camp decided to do it again for the Republican side:

One of the most famous moments in recent American political history came at the Presidential debate in 1992, when candidate Bill Clinton bested George H.W. Bush by stepping forward and asking a woman who'd asked a question about economic distress by saying, "Tell me how it's affected you again?"

In tonight's GOP debate, John McCain strove to reproduce such a Clinton moment.

In response to a question from a woman in the audience who lost a brother in Iraq, McCain conspicuously stepped forward -- Clinton style -- and gave her a heartfelt answer. It's worth taking a look, because it's far and away the most emotional moment of the debate thus far. So let's compare and contrast McCain's moment with Bill's back in 1992.

Here's McCain:

And here's Bill's moment back in 1992:

Wolf Blitzer just asked the GOP candidates to raise their hands if they oppose the idea of making English the country's official language. There's Rudy Giuliani, front and center, keeping his hands at his sides:

In other words, Rudy now favors making English the official language of the United States, right?

Ahhhh, but it turns out that Rudy hasn't always been in favor of this -- particularly back when he was Mayor of a city full of non-English-speaking immigrants. From The New York Times on August 14, 1996 (via Nexis):

Brushing aside the strong objections of Hispanic groups, the Suffolk County Legislature approved a resolution today that would make English the county's official language...

The law would be the first of its kind in a New York county. Twenty-three states, 41 counties and 15 cities have passed similar measures, and a bill recognizing English as the official national language has been passed by the House of Representatives. A similar measure was defeated in Suffolk in 1989.

In New York City, Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani has consistently opposed such measures. Earlier this month, he remarked, "There's no reason to pass a bill like this except, maybe, to exclude people, insult people or offend people."

Tonight: The GOPers Debate
Just a quick reminder: Tune in tonight at 7 p.m. ET for a two-hour Republican presidential debate in New Hampshire. And another reminder, that in 9 p.m. ET time slot Fox News will give non-attendee Fred Thompson a platform all to himself for post-debate commentary.

Mark Blumenthal: Gallup Polls Showing Movement For Obama
Mark Blumenthal has an interesting analysis of the new poll showing Barack Obama one point up on Hillary Clinton: "Rather than obsessing over this one survey of 470 respondents, readers might want to take a longer view ... while Clinton's share of the vote has been fluctuating (again, not surprising given the sample sizes), Obama's support has been higher on all four of the most recent polls than on the four before that." And Blumenthal has a nifty chart demonstrating just that.

Durbin, Dean And Clark To Speak At YearlyKos
The YearlyKos convention organizers have announced that Senator Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL), DNC chairman Howard Dean and Ret. Gen. Wesley Clark will be speaking at their second annual convention, to be held in Chicago this August.

F. Thompson Gets Pollster
The New York Sun has confirmed that GOP polling firm McLaughlin & Associates have signed on as pollsters for the emerging Fred Thompson campaign.

Romney Economic Advisor Supports Immigration Bill
N. Gregory Mankiw, a Harvard professor and former chairman of Bush's Council of Economic Advisors, signed an op-ed in the Dallas Morning News endorsing the immigration deal before Congress — despite the fact he is a key advisor to presidential candidate Mitt Romney, who considers the Z-Visa provision of the bill a form of amnesty.

Elizabeth Edwards Compares Husband's Qualities To ... Jesse Helms
Speaking to reporters before a speech in Savannah, Georgia, Elizabeth Edwards said, "I remember one-time somebody saying, 'That John Edwards reminds me of Jesse Helms.' They didn't agree on a single policy, I don't think. But here's what they agreed on — that people should know where they stood."

Arizona GOPers Ask Kyl to Abandon Immigration Bill
Hundreds of Arizona Republican officials have penned a letter to Sen. Jon Kyl asking him to abandon the immigration deal before Congress. "People are calling my office and other offices saying 'We are trying to call Senator Kyl's office but his voice mail is full. We can never get through,'" said state senator Karen Johnson.

Congress Tempts Bush's Veto Pen
Congressional Democrats are set to pass $27 billion in new domestic spending this year, testing a veto threat by President Bush made to keep spending in check. "There have to be some reasonable limits and we think (Democrats) have exceeded those reasonable limits," White House budget director Rob Portman said today. "If bills like these were presented to the president, we would be forced to veto them."

Klobuchar Tapped For DSCC Role
Freshman Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) has been tapped by Chuck Schumer to a new position in the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee, as chair of outreach and policy. Klobuchar's job will be to help recruit more women candidates, to reach out to younger Democratic activists, and to maintain relationships with environmental groups.

Hillary Appoints New Iowa Director
Hillary Clinton has named high-profile operative Teresa Vilmain as director of her Iowa campaign, replacing JoDee Winterhof, who will become a senior strategist in the state. Vilmain has 20 years of experience in the Iowa caucuses and was a consultant to the Democratic National Committee in 2004.

Putnam Endorses F. Thompson
House Republican Conference Chairman Adam Putnam (R-FL) has endorsed Fred Thompson for president. A spokesman said that Putnam called the former Senator and character actor "a consistent conservative who has a clear view for the future for America," and reportedly also said that Thompson can "unite Republicans and attract Reagan-Democrats."

Tancredo Opposing Re-Election Of Senate GOPers Who Support Immigration Bill
Tom Tancredo is ready to really challenge his fellow Republicans on the immigration issue: He's now running an online petition for people to pledge that they will oppose the re-elections Republican Senators who votes for the immigration bill. "I am going to use my presidential campaign as a vehicle to rally the millions of law-abiding Americans who oppose the Kennedy-McCain-Bush sellout of America," Tancredo said, according to prepared remarks — and they were prepared for a speech outside a local office of Senator Judd Gregg (R-NH), who is on the fence about the immigration bill.

Reporter Cardwell To Challenge Chambliss
Dale Cardwell, a muckraking reporter from ABC Atlanta affiliate WSB-TV, has announced that he is running against first-term Senator Saxby Chambliss (R-GA). "This may be our last chance to elect an outsider who will stay an outsider, a senator who will tell the truth and fight like hell to make a difference," said Cardwell, clearly implying that Chambliss is a Washington insider who does not make a difference. Cardwell is in many ways a conservative Democrat, favoring the replacement of the IRS with "a simple tax system," wants to seal the Mexican border, and opposes withdrawal from Iraq. Also in the race is DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones, a moderate black Democrat.

Limbaugh: Liberals Jealous of Our Women
Conservative talk show host Rush Limbaugh said today that liberals are "getting all over Fred Thompson's wife because she's a babe ... Look, liberals, they're envious as hell of our women, folks. Everybody knows this. It's one of the best kept secrets going on in politics."

Richardson Bought Hybrid Two Years Ago — But Couldn't Fit
Shades of William Howard Taft: Bill Richardson bought a hybrid car two years ago, hoping to do his part to protect the environment and reduce his personal dependence on oil. Unfortunately, he was too fat at the time to fit inside the compact car. Thankfully, he's lost weight since then through a steady diet of nutrient shakes, and one solid meal a day.

So how will the vacancy in the Senate created by the death of GOP Senator Craig Thomas be filled?

The election laws of Wyoming, available here, lay it out. Let us explain.

First, it should be noted that the laws are designed to keep an office in the same party as a deceased or resigned incumbent. Wyoming does have a Democratic Governor, popular two-termer Dave Freudenthal, and he does have the power to appoint a new Senator, but the office is nevertheless going to stay in GOP hands thanks to the peculiarities of Wyoming election law, which have a process in place designed to restrict who the Governor can appoint.

The law stipulates that the state GOP's central committee has 15 days to hold a special meeting, at which they are required to select three candidates for the position. Those names must then be submitted to the Governor.

Freudenthal will then have five days to pick one of those three people to serve as a Senator until the next general election, which of course is in 2008. Candidates from any party can run in that election, and the winner of it will then serve out the rest of Thomas' term, through the 2012 election.

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This is some really, really rank journalism. The Associated Press is badly distorting a speech Barack Obama gave today, giving his words a scary and racially-threatening cast that they simply didn't have in reality.

Here's the headline and lede on the AP's story about Obama's speech:

Obama warns of 'quiet riot' among blacks

HAMPTON, Va. (AP) -- Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama said Tuesday that the Bush administration has done nothing to defuse a "quiet riot" among blacks that threatens to erupt just as riots in Los Angeles did 15 years ago.

The first-term Illinois senator said that with black people from New Orleans and the Gulf Coast still displaced 20 months after Hurricane Katrina, frustration and resentments are building explosively as they did before the 1992 riots.

The loaded language ("warns," "threatens") in the headline and lede -- combined with the obvious insinuation that Obama is somehow threatening that riots may occur -- has already earned this story its pat on the head from Drudge, who made it his lead story for some time today. And CNN is now playing along, too, running the AP's headline about Obama warning of a "quiet riot among blacks" across the screen.

But here's the thing: It's not remotely clear how the AP reporter concluded that this is what Obama was saying.

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Here's another interesting number buried in the new Pew Research poll released today that we referenced below: Less than half of Republicans know Rudy is pro-choice.

Although Rudy has led in all the national Republican polls, some have wondered if those numbers reflected the possibility that many grassroots conservatives and other Republicans don't even know that Rudy holds views that are anathema to them. Well, the new Pew Research poll sheds some light on the situation:

Which leading GOP candidate is pro-choice?

	Giuliani	Other	Don't Know
Registered Voters	37%	15%	48%
Among Republicans and GOP Leaners	43%	15%	42%
Conservative	45%	17%	38%
Moderate/Liberal	40%	12%	48%
Abortion is...
Very important	44%	16%	40%
Less important	43%	15%	42%

Note that only 43% of Republicans realize that Rudy is pro-choice, and 15% think the pro-choicer in their midst is somebody else. Also noteworthy: This lack of awareness seems to be evenly spread across ideological bents, between conservative and moderate Republicans.

A final key footnote that might also explain Rudy's national strength: Only 43% of Republican voters say abortion will be very important to their voting decisions.

"There are lots of threats to you in the world. There's the threat of a heart attack for genetic reasons. You can't sit there and worry about everything. Get a life."

-- Mayor Michael Bloomberg, quoted by The Politicker responding to a reporter's question about why he isn't being more vocal about the foiled JFK terror plot. As The Politicker notes, Rudy Giuliani -- who regularly bashes Democrats for allegedly not understanding the terror threat -- is declining to comment on Republican Bloomberg's dismissal of the threat.

Wow. A new poll released this afternoon by Pew Research has President Bush's job approval at all-time low of 29% — and it gets worse. The number who disapprove of Bush is more than double the number who approve of his performance:

For the first time in Pew Research Center polling, disapproval of President Bush’s job performance outnumbers approval by more than two-to-one (61% disapprove, 29% approve). Bush’s job approval is down six points from April, and is three points below the previous low measured in November and December of 2006.

Only 65% of Republicans approve of the president's job performance, and 27% disapprove.

Speaking of Ben Smith, he's unearthed a key number in a new poll out of New Hampshire that supports the emerging conventional wisdom that Hillary Clinton was the big winner at Sunday night's debate.

The new poll from Franklin Pierce College shows that 45% of New Hampshire Democratic primary voters think Hillary won. Barack Obama is in second place — with 8%, followed by John Edwards at 4%.

The poll also finds that Hillary is leading in the New Hampshire primary itself with 38%, followed by Obama at 16% and Edwards at 13%.

One thing to expect at the GOP debate: John McCain is all but certain to take some more big and damaging hits on immigration tonight, as CQ Politics notes.

McCain, of course, can ill afford to take more hits on the issue. As we reported below, his support for the immigration bill has taken a toll on his Presidential campaign, and his approval rating has even dipped below 50% in his home state of Arizona.

McCain's frustration on the issue is showing. After saying last Friday that he believed that foes of the bill are acting in good faith, he sharply questioned their motives only three days later. His latter response, we bet, is a preview of how he'll handle things tonight. It bears watching.

Okay, this is a little thing, but it's pretty fun. Really, the wingers just never stop providing us with amusing material -- and we're going to spend just a little time on this one, because we can't help ourselves.

Matt Drudge is pushing a story today from the Boston Herald that tries to suggest that Hillary Clinton has had some "work" done on her face. The paper's story has "before and after" photos on line that purport to demonstrate this, with the "before" photo showing the skin on Hillary's face to be somewhat less than smooth, and the "after" photo showing her to be smooth-faced.

There's a small problem, though. It turns out that the "before" photo was actually taken after the after one, meaning that her smooth-faced look preceeded her less-smooth-faced look. The visuals are after the jump.

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The Republican candidates are being forced to adjust to debating each other in the presence of an unwelcome guest: Planes circling overhead carrying banners with messages battering them over Iraq.

At tonight's debate, two planes will be circling above bearing the following message: REPUBLICAN IRAQ PLAN: 50 YEARS IN IRAQ. The planes are being provided by the antiwar group Americans Against Escalation in Iraq, which just announced the plans this morning. The banners, of course, refer to President Bush's recent assertion that he'd like to see a long-term troop presence in Iraq similar to that in South Korea.

At the last GOP debate, AAEI sent planes bearing messages blaring: "Mission Accomplished?" We'll see if these planes keep showing up at GOP debates for the next year and a half. If so, that's a lot of plane fuel.

Less than half of voters in John McCain's home state of Arizona now approve of his performance -- and immigration is to blame, a new poll finds.

The new Rasmussen poll finds that less than half of Arizona voters -- 47% -- approve of McCain's performance, while 51% have an unfavorable view of their Senator.

McCain's dip in popularity in Arizona -- a central front in the immigration wars - is not all that surprising. As is commonly known, his backing of the immigration deal has damaged his Presidential hopes nationally, and in Arizona in particular, only 24% of voters back the bill, while 50% oppose it. And 77% think it is very important for the government to enforce protection of the border and reduce illegal immigration -- while only 14% believe the bill will accomplish those goals.

Tonight: The Republicans Debate

Tune in to CNN tonight at 7 p.m. ET for a Republican Presidential debate. The ten declared candidates — Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, Duncan Hunter, Tommy Thompson, Ron Paul and Jim Gilmore — will meet on the campus of Saint Anselm College, a follow-up to Sunday's Democratic debate at the same location.

Craig Thomas, 1933-2007

Senator Craig Thomas (R-WY), has died of leukemia. His diagnosis was announced two days after Election Day 2006, when he was easily re-elected to a third term. Governor Dave Freudenthal, a Democrat, will make an appointment to the vacancy from among three choices, to be submitted to him by the state Republican Party.

Gallup: Obama and Hillary Tied

Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are in a statistical tie in the latest Gallup national poll — and Obama has a nominal one-point lead. Three weeks ago, Gallup gave Hillary a nine-point lead. In a strict two-way race, Hillary has a statistically insignificant three-point lead of 49%-46%. On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani has 32%, John McCain 19%, Mitt Romney 12%, and Fred Thompson 11%. In a two-way race with McCain, Giuliani has a wide 56%-38% lead.

Rasmussen: McCain Moves to Fourth Place in GOP Contest

A new Rasmussen national poll shows Fred Thompson pulling in 17 percent of likely voters, second only to Rudy Giuliani's 23 percent. John McCain, likely hurt from his support of a divisive immigration compromise, also shifted to fourth place behind Mitt Romney, who has 15 percent to McCain's 14 percent.

Hillary Favorables Weak In New National Polls — But Strong With Dem Women

A recent national poll shows that while Hillary Clinton is the best known of her rivals for the nomination, 42% of respondents report an unfavorable impression of her, compared to only 38% favorable. Another national poll shows that while her favorability is strong among women, particularly white women, female voters as a whole give her no advantage beyond the primaries.

Obama, Richardson And Kucinich Pay Tribute To Jesse Jackson

Three Democratic candidates spoke yesterdaya in the suburban Chicago area, at the annual Rainbow/PUSH dinner. Reflecting on the idea of a woman, an African-American and a Latino being among the Democratic candidates for President, Jesse Jackson's 1984 and 1988 campaigns naturally came up. "It never would have happened without the 1988 run for president by Jesse Jackson," said Bill Richardson.

New Immigration Compromise Possible

Congress is weighing a new deal for the proposed immigration compromise that would include both more family-based rules for legal immigration and a tougher path to citizenship for illegal immigrants. Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are proposing new rules that would help immigrants get visas for their family members.

WaPo: Jefferson Indictment Could Cause Rift Between Pelosi, Black Caucus

The Washington Post reports that the Congressional Black Caucus, which has largely stood by indicted Rep. William Jefferson (D-LA), is headed to conflict with Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), who is seeking to distance her party from the Congressman accused of accepting bribes.

Fred Thompson Congressional Supporters Getting To Work

Supporters of Fred Thompson are working to build a Congressional whip team and other elements of a campaign, now that the former Senator is officially testing the waters. "We can now formalize what we've been talking about for a number of months," said Rep. Zach Wamp (R-TN). Current supporters include Wamp, Gresham Barrett (SC), Jeff Miller (FL), Don Manzullo (IL), Steve Buyer (IN), Dan Burton (IN) and Sue Myrick (NC).

Edwards Calls For White House Advisor On New Orleans

At yesterday's Sojourner's forum, John Edwards called for a special White House advisor to be appointed to oversee New Orleans reconstruction. "The single biggest thing to be done is the president of the United States needs to put one person, a very high-level competent person in the White House, in charge of New Orleans," Edwards said. "And that person — the president should say to that person, 'I want you in my office every morning telling me what you did in New Orleans yesterday.' And the next day say, 'I want you in my office telling me what you did yesterday. I'm not interested in what you're going to do six months from now; I want to know what you did yesterday.'"

Labor: Clinton Aide Works on Anti-Union Campaign

The heads of two large labor unions, including James P. Hoffa of the Teamsters, accuse Mark Penn, a pollster and strategist for Hillary Clinton, of working for the uniform rental company Cintas Corporation on an anti-union campaign.

Lobbyist: Bush Has Learned to Like The Veto

Lobbyist Gerald Warburg tells The Hill that now that President Bush faces a Democratic Congress and lame-duck status, Bush will be using his veto much more often to control policy and rebuild credibility with the conservative base on spending. "I’ve told my clients to expect a veto on every single [bill], at least once," said Warburg.

Mike Huckabee Takes Protectionist Line

At a campaign stop in New Hampshire, Mike Huckabee told a house party that he is for tightening the country's borders to control immigration, as well as seeking tougher restrictions on trade agreements. Huckabee told the crowd, "there is no free trade without fair trade."

Democrats Targeting Capito

West Virginia Democrats have recruited state Senator John Unger to challenge Congresswoman Shelly Moore Capito, the only Republican in the state's Congressional delegation. Unger's socially conservative stance on abortion — to the right of the moderately pro-choice Capito — could be a possible draw for his campaign, while Dems plan to target Capito for her votes with the Bush Administration on labor and Iraq issues.

Feingold: "Thank God I'm Not There" On Debate Stage

Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI), who travelled the country considering a White House bid throughout 2005 and 2006, told The Hill he's glad he didn't go that route, and added that running for president naturally has a bad effect on legislative work: "Well, I look at the debates and say, 'Thank God I’m not there' ... I see my colleagues who I greatly respect — not just from the Democratic side — it’s very hard for them to do their work. I know they try. That would be terribly frustrating for me."

Bishop: Rudy's Abortion Stance Hypocritical

Thomas Tobin, the Catholic Bishop of Providence, Rhode Island, wrote, "Rudy's public proclamations on abortion are pathetic and confusing. Even worse, they're hypocritical."

Approval of Dem Congress Drops In New Poll

The new Washington Post/ABC News poll finds that the approval rating of Congressional Dems has dropped 10 points since April -- a plunge that's fueled mostly by disenchantment among strong opponents of the Iraq War. The poll also finds President Bush's approval rating mired at 35%.


Hillary, Obama and Edwards To Meet In Forum — Again!

The top three Democratic contenders will be meeting again tonight at Pentecost 2007, a liberal, anti-poverty Christian gathering, where they will talk about the issues of poverty in America, as well as issues of faith and politics. Be sure to tune in to CNN at 7 p.m., where the event will be broadcast live. (Late Update: Chris Dodd, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden and Dennis Kucinich will also be interviewed on CNN at 8 p.m.)

Steve Gilliard, 1966-2007

Liberal blogger Steve Gilliard, who ran The News Blog, passed away over the weekend from heart and kidney problems, age 41. Thoughts and condolences on the man have been expressed by, among others, Markos Moulitsas, Joe Sudbay, Duncan Black, Jerome Armstrong, Jane Hamsher, Digby and Nicole Belle.

Thompson Getting Post-Debate Platform On Fox Tomorrow

Fred Thompson won't be at tomorrow night's CNN Republican debate, but he will get a platform all to himself — as a special guest on Fox News' Hannity & Colmes, doing post-debate commentary. And this is all perfectly ethical...

Poll: Majority of Americans Eye Poverty in Presidential Race

A new poll from Zogby International finds that 58 percent of likely voters say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate that vowed set a national goal of cutting poverty in half within a decade. John Edwards has pledged to cut poverty by one-third by 2016 and end poverty by 2036.

Gallup: Most Don't Know Enough About Immigration Bill To Form Opinion

A new USA Today/Gallup poll might help to explain both the strong opposition to the immigration bill, and its relative under-the-radar status in political discussions relative to issues like Iraq: 58% of respondents don't know enough about the bill to have an opinion, but among those who do have an opinion, it runs 3-1 against the bill.

TNR: Hagel's Views On Iraq Have Changed In Time With Views On Vietnam

The New Republic has a fascinating piece on the political evolution of Chuck Hagel. In 2002, Hagel was a strong conservative who was only somewhat skeptical of the approaching Iraq War, and voted to authorize it. Nowadays, he remains a conservative but is a staunch opponent of the war. "Hagel began to believe that the United States had gone to war in Vietnam and had continued fighting partly for narrow political reasons — to avoid being impeached, in Johnson's case, or to avoid being 'the first American president to lose a war,' in Richard Nixon's words..." John B. Judis writes. "Sometime in the last year, Hagel began to apply these conclusions to Iraq."

Romney Cracks Jokes At Tennessee GOP Event

"I know there’s been some speculation about a certain former senator from Tennessee getting into the presidential race..." Mitt Romney told a Tennessee GOP dinner he was keynoting on Saturday — a speech that had been scheduled before talk of Fred Thompson's potential candidacy had come up. "But I feel great comfort in the fact that no one in this room, not a single person - is going to vote for Al Gore." It looks like Romney was a good sport, and we are reminded of a joke John F. Kennedy told about Cincinnati, Ohio — that in no other city did he get more applause and less votes.

Elizabeth Edwards Responds to Shrum

Elizabeth Edwards said yesterday that passages in Bob Shrum's new book regarding her husband were inaccurate. She specifically refuted charges that John Edwards said he was "uncomfortable" with gay people, saying it was in the context of a gay man's comments that he wanted to "snake" Edwards. "Bob correctly remembers the word 'uncomfortable' but incorrectly remembers the circumstances in which he said it. All of us feel uncomfortable at someone snaking us — I guess in the presence — trying to snake us in the presence of our fiancée, and that made him feel uncomfortable, and John talked about that."

N.H. Dem Chair Wants Equal Time For Next Debate

Ray Buckley, chair of the New Hampshire Democratic Party, said he would ask NBC to give the candidates equal time for the September debate in his state. "I'm going to discuss with them who's the moderator so it's certainly a much more fair and equal playing field than what we saw tonight," he said after Sunday night's debate.

Huckabee: Thompson Is Mighty Mouse

Mike Huckabee took a swipe at the impending candidacy of Fred Thompson, telling a New Hampshire crowd it was "what we might call the Mighty Mouse candidacy. You know: here I come to save the day. And in the end voters are not necessarily looking for Mighty Mouse to fly in, they are looking for somebody who stands their ground and goes the distance."

Jeb Bush's Son Supports Thompson

Fred Thompson has picked up the support of George Bush — George Prescott Bush, son of Jeb. George P. Bush is contributing to Thompson's committee and recruiting others to do the same, CNN reports. His father Jeb is widely believed to be a supporter of Mitt Romney.

Hillary Gets Big Massachusetts Endorsement

Hillary Clinton has been endorsed by Boston Mayor Thomas Menino. "Sen. Clinton is the most qualified candidate to lead our country and tackle the challenges we face at home and abroad," Menino said in a statement.

Biden Gets Big New Hampshire Endorsement

Joe Biden has won the support of New Hampshire state Rep. Jim Ryan. In the 2006 elections, Ryan was in charge of candidate recruitment for the State House Dems, successfully recruiting 400 candidates to contest every seat. In a historic landslide, Democrats picked up control of the chamber for the first time in over 80 years.

Senate Dems Showing Higher Unity, And Senate GOP More Division

On Saturday we mentioned a piece by The Washington Post's Paul Kane, saying that Congressional Democrats were exhibiting record levels of unity, for all the talk about division over Iraq. Kane now also notes that the partisanship of GOP Senators — especially those up in 2008 — has been going down, while the partisanship of Dem Senators is going up.

Senators Warn Bush on Climate Change Before G8

Twenty senators sent a letter to President Bush warning him not to block measures reducing carbon emissions at the upcoming G8 summit. "President Bush has offered promising rhetoric, but has been short of real commitments and specifics," said Sen. Joseph Biden (D-DE).

Lewis Camp Denies Retirement Rumors

The office of Congressman Jerry Lewis (R-CA) is strongly disputing reports that the Congressman, who has come under suspicion in an earmarks scandal, will be retiring. A spokesman told Congressional Quarterly that the Congressman "has not said anything remotely like that."

Gallup Tests Moral Issues

A new Gallup poll testing 16 moral issues finds that 49% of Americans think homosexual relations are immoral, compared to 47% who say it is morally acceptable. Also, 49% say doctor-assisted suicide is acceptable, while abortion is morally wrong by a margin of 51%-40%. On the other hand, 64% say embryonic stem-cell research is acceptable, with only 30% saying it is wrong — a wide enough margin for Gallup to consider it a "consensus issue."

Dick Armey: Blogger

Former House Majority Leader Dick Armey (R-TX) is now a contributor to Time's Swampland blog.

Senator Chuck Schumer is now responding on behalf of fellow New Yorker Hillary Clinton to Barack Obama's quasi-attack on her from earlier today.

As you know, Obama's campaign today sent out a memo highlighting a difference between he and Hillary at last night's debate over the question of whether the Bush administration's policies have left us less safe.

No word from Camp Hillary on this. But now Schumer has stepped up for her with this:

America is looking for a president who understands the threats the country faces and has the experience and strength to deal with them effectively. Despite the Bush administration's failures, America's first responders have worked tirelessly over the last six years to make the nation's cities and towns safer. As a Senator from New York, Hillary Clinton is grateful every day for their efforts. She has fought to build on the progress we've made in crucial areas like air safety and disrupting the terrorists' financial networks.

So it sounds as if Schumer, too, is suggesting -- without directly addressing the question -- that he agrees with Hillary that "we" are safer. And his response is suggestive. Would saying we are less safe somehow betray an ungratefulness towards our first responders?

Another quick word on this. The positions expressed by Obama and Clinton last night aren't necessarily in direct opposition to each other. Obama said the "world" is a more "dangerous" place, while Clinton said "we" were safer. Obviously the world could be a more dangerous place statistically in terms of global terror attacks while "we" are safer here in America.

However, there may be a genuine underlying disagreement here. A quick Google search shows that Obama has repeatedly said that "we" are less safe thanks to Bush policies. We're not exactly sure how you'd quantify this, but the two candidates do appear to disagree about it. On the other hand, Hillary has repeatedly made a broader point related to this that Obama would undoubtedly agree with: That the Iraq War is a distraction from the broader "war on terror."

One side note: The gentleness of Obama's chiding of Hillary is strikingly at odds with how harsh he's willing to be in his criticism of John Edwards.

Barack Obama's campaign has just sent out a memo to "interested parties" -- read: reporters, pundits, fixers, etc. -- detailing his claim yesterday that the world is more dangerous due to President Bush's policies.

The Obama memo is interesting because it appears designed to call attention (without directly saying so) to a difference at last night's debate between Obama and Hillary on the question of whether the world's a safer place.

The memo observes (without mentioning Hillary's name) that at the debate there was "disagreement over whether or not America is safer since the 9/11 attacks on our nation."

The disagreement between the two Democratic candidates was not spectacularly pronounced. Obama opined that "we live in a more dangerous world, not a less dangerous world, partly as a consequence of this president's actions." Meanwhile, Hillary, in response to a different question, said: "I believe we are safer than we were. We are not yet safe enough." Not a great deal of daylight there between the two, but perhaps noteworthy.

At any rate, the memo suggests that the Obama campaign appears to be happy to highlight Obama's view of things on this question -- and apparently to draw attention to this "disagreement." The memo cites a bunch of documents backing up Obama's claim.

If you're interested, you can read the memo right here.

Update: Ben Smith has some interesting context for this.

Update II: We should clarify our clumsy "not a great deal of daylight" line. What we meant was that the two statements aren't in direct opposition to each other, in the sense that the "world" could be "more dangerous" according to global terrorism stats while America is "safer." We're not endorsing either of those views, just pointing out that they don't necessarily contradict each other.

We're kidding. (For now, anyway.)

Our mock headline was inspired by an astute comment below written by "Legalize." He was responding to our post below reporting that Senator Sam Brownback has now blasted fellow GOP Presidential candidate Mitt Romney for failing to describe abortion as "murder":

Next thing we know, Mitt will be getting slammed for not referring to homosexuals as "godless dogs," or all people of color and foreigners as "subhuman filth." I mean, what can Mitt possibly be thinking in not advocating concentration camps? What a loon.

Indeed. Let's face it -- Romney's toast. He'll never recover from this one.

Today in Florida John McCain spoke blasted his GOP Presidential rivals over immigration, clearly and openly questioning their motives and suggesting that their views were driven by nothing but Presidential politics:

But the choice is between doing something, imperfect but effective and achievable, and doing nothing. I would hope that any candidate for President would not suggest doing nothing. And I would hope they wouldn't play politics for their own interests if the cost of their ambition was to make this problem even harder to solve. To want the office so badly that you would intentionally make our country's problems worse might prove you can read a poll or take a cheap shot, but it hardly demonstrates presidential leadership.

But only three days ago, on Friday, McCain very clearly stated that he saw nothing but good, apolitical motives on the part of immigration bill critics:

"The president, and all of us, feel frustrated sometimes by the criticism and the level of the dialogue," Mr. McCain said. "I respect the views of those who disagree with us. I don’t question anyone’s patriotism or love of this country. I wish we could lift up the level of discourse and dialogue."

Only three days ago, he said he viewed immigration bill critics as acting out of "love of this country." But today, they're suddenly willing to "make our country's problems worse" in service of their Presidential ambitions. What changed?

Uh oh -- more trouble for Mitt Romney on abortion. His latest gaffe: he apparently failed to call abortion "murder."

That embarrassing slip-up drew the following scorching attack from GOP Presidential rival and Senator Sam Brownback's campaign:

Mitt Romney Doesn't Believe Abortion is Murder

Rejects GOP Platform on Abortion -- A Human Life Amendment to the Constitution

ALEXANDRIA, Va-- Presidential candidate Mitt Romney refused to call abortion "murder" at an event in Laconia, New Hampshire last week, stating that murder "means different things to different people."

Romney instead stated abortion is the taking of a human life, that the unborn "is alive and human" at the point of conception, but that states should define their own abortion laws. "Mitt Romney's flip-flops on abortion throughout the years make more sense now," said Martin Gillespie, political director of Brownback for President...

"Romney says life begins at conception, but doesn't think abortion is murder and Romney says he's pro-life but he thinks states should be able to choose to allow abortion," Gillespie added. "Every time he tries to clarify, as he tried to do last week, it becomes more and more confusing."

In responding, Romney's spokesman -- incredibly, inexplicably -- refused to say that Romney had misspoke or that Romney does believe abortion is murder, thus compounding this gaffe to an unimaginable degree.

Brownback, of course, is one of approximately 18 GOP candidates who are each arguing that he is the only "real conservative" in the race. The GOPers debate tomorrow night.

Hillary took a fair amount of heat the last time she answered a question about foreign policy by mentioning that she is a "Senator from New York," thus implying that she'd had a more direct experience of 9/11 than others.

It passed virtually unnoticed, but Hillary again said something very similar at last night's debate:

BLITZER: All right.

Senator Clinton, do you agree with Senator Edwards that this war on terror is nothing more than a bumper sticker; at least the way it's been described?

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D) NEW YORK: No, I do not. I am a senator from New York. I have lived with the aftermath of 9/11, and I have seen firsthand the terrible damage that can be inflicted on our country by a small band of terrorists who are intent upon foisting their way of life and using suicide bombers and suicidal people to carry out their agenda.

The last time Hillary went down this rhetorical road, it was unclear what exactly she was saying because the reporting on her comment was so atrocious. But this example was much more clear cut.

Hillary very clearly suggested that she disagrees with Edwards' rejection of the "war on terror" phrase because she had a direct experience of 9/11 as Senator from New York.

Here's why this sort of thing gets people hot and bothered. It seems designed to imply that Edwards doesn't grasp the import of terrorism itself -- in other words, that he doesn't take terrorism in general as seriously as she does. In this sense it carries echoes of the bogus Dems-don't-grasp-the-terror-threat talking point used so frequently by wingers and by the GOP to slime Hillary herself and Dems in general.

What's more, this reply doesn't appear to have anything to do with what Edwards is actually arguing. Not only is Edwards saying that terrorism is real and to be taken seriously, he's also making a substantive argument -- whether you agree with it or not -- about how it should be dealt with. He's arguing that the "war on terror" formulation helps terrorism in general and weakens the U.S.'s ability to counter it adequately.

We have no problem believing that Hillary actually does believe in the "war on terror" frame. But we'd genuinely like to hear her explain why she believes this, rather than implying she has a better gut-level grasp of the import of terrorism than other Dems do.

Update: In fairness to Hillary, it's worth pointing out that Edwards' rejection of the "war on terror" phrase is fairly recent and that he repeatedly used it himself until deciding it should be discarded.

James Carville calls the debate for Clinton on CNN...

...and the CNN page contains no mention of the fact that Carville is an open Clinton supporter, only identifying him as an independent-sounding "political analyst."

Carville does give the nod to Biden in the only other meaningful category here -- the question of who seemed to know most about the issues -- and perhaps Carville genuinely believes Clinton won. But come on. Even Carville himself has acknowledged that there's some merit to the case made recently by lib bloggers that he should be identified as a Clinton supporter when discussing the Presidential race. And at one point, it even looked as if Carville was going to start identifying himself this way.

Guess he and CNN thought they could I.D. him as a Clinton supporter one time as a sop to critics -- and are now banking on the fact that everyone's gonna just forget about this.

Update: A reader writes in to point out that Carville disclosed his support for Hillary on Meet the Press yesterday. Of course, the main beef is with the Carville-CNN relationship, because he's constantly on that network.

Update II: A reader reports to us that Carville was indeed identified as a Hillary supporter at least once on screen yesterday.

• A full transcript of the debate is available here.

• Via Chuck Todd, Hillary Clinton could be seen standing on top of a stepping stool in certain camera angles.

• The New Hampshire Union Leader quotes local political experts, saying Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama gave the best performances, while John Edwards and Bill Richardson did poorly.

• The Des Moines Register's David Yepsen says the top three candidates all did good jobs, but "Edwards probably did himself the most good."

• Chris Dodd's campaign has released a chart showing just how much time each candidate used during the debate, plus moderator Wolf Blitzer:

• Wolf Blitzer's role as moderator was mainly marked by two trends: His tendency to pose "raise your hand" questions on the one hand, and also his strong approach of asking a question a second time if the candidate veered off in another direction — for example, if a candidate used a question about gas prices to talk about global warming.

• Joe Biden explained why he voted for the recent Iraq funding resolution. "Lives are at stake," Biden said. "I knew the right political vote, but I tell you what. Some things are worth losing elections over." — T. W. Farnam

• Part of the vibe about Hillary winning the debate might come from this: She led a revolt against Wolf Blitzer's frequent use of "raise your hand" questions. "Well we’re not going to engage in these hypotheticals," Hillary said, in response to a question about a missile strike against Osama bin Laden that might kill civilians. "I mean one of the jobs of a president is being very reasoned in approaching these issues. And I don’t think it’s useful to be talking in these kinds of abstract hypothetical terms."

• Hillary Clinton said she disagreed with John Edwards previous assertion that the war on terror was a "bumper sticker campaign." "I am the senator from New York. I have lived with the aftermath of 9/11 and I have seen the firsthand the terrible damage that can be inflicted." — T. W. Farnam

• John Edwards hit Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama for going "quietly to the floor of the Senate" to vote against the Iraq funding bill, rather than being more outspoken. "But there is a difference between leadership and legislating," Edwards said.

• Barack Obama shot back to Edwards. "Well, look, the — I think it is important to lead. And I think John — the fact is is that I opposed this war from the start. So you're about four and a half years late on leadership on this issue," Obama said. "And, you know, I think it's important not to play politics on something that is as critical and as difficult as this."

• Hillary gave something of a backhanded compliment to Edwards: "And what we are trying to do, whether it's by speaking out from the outside (pointing to Edwards) or working and casting votes that actually make a difference from the inside, we are trying to end the war." (Emphasis ours.)

• John Edwards took offense when Hillary Clinton said "the differences between [the candidates] are minor" on the war, saying "there are differences between us. And I think Democratic voters deserve to know the differences between us."

• John Edwards said, regarding Barack Obama’s opposition to the war: "He was right. I was wrong." That led to discussion of Hillary Clinton’s refusal to recant her vote for the war resolution. – T. W. Farnam

• Joe Biden took a stand on the Darfur issue: "By the time all these guys talk, 50,000 more people are going to be dead. They're going to be dead. And I tell you, I guarantee you, we have the capacity by setting up a no-fly zone to shut down the Janjaweed. That's our moral authority. Exercise it."

• Barack Obama made up some ground on his widely-perceived foreign policy weakness at the last debate. After Dennis Kucinich said he would not move to assassinate Osama bin Laden, Obama pointed out that bin Laden has declared war on the United States, and is a legitimate military target. "You take him out," Obama said.

• Hillary Clinton said her vote to authorize the war was not by itself a mistake: "I said it was a mistake to trust George Bush and that he would do what he told all of us he would do."

• Bill Richardson made a novel threat regarding what to do about Darfur: "We need China, which has enormous leverage over Darfur. If the Chinese don’t want to do this, we say to them, maybe we won’t go to the Olympics." The 2008 Olympics are going to be held in Beijing. None of the other Democrats agreed, except for John Edwards — after all, they remember what happened to Jimmy Carter's ratings after the U.S. boycotted the Moscow Olympics. (Late Update: This post originally said none of the other Dems agreed.)

• Bill Richardson took a position that many in the Democratic base might not like: He does not think the oil companies are engaging in price-gouging.

• Dennis Kucinich said all of his opponents’ health care plans are inadequate. "They are talking about letting the insurance companies stay in charge." – T. W. Farnam

• Barack Obama defended his health care plan when John Edwards’s noted it was not a universal plan. "John believes we have to have mandatory insurance for everyone in order to have universal health care. My belief is that most families want health care, but they can't afford it, so my emphasis is on driving down the costs." — T. W. Farnam

• Joe Biden had a great line against President Bush: "And by the way, when power is handed from this president to the next, the next president is going to be left with no margin for error. They'd better be smarter than their advisers."

• All the Democrats support ending the Don't Ask, Don't Tell policy, and would allow openly gay people to serve in the military.

• Chuck Todd: "Most improved performer: Clearly Obama. He seemed much more at ease answering 60 second questions than he was during the first debate ... He was clearly at ease and more comfortable than last month and looked and sounded as presidential as anyone on stage."

• This is a big surprise: James Carville, speaking as a CNN analyst, says Hillary won the debate. CNN's Web page did not have any disclaimer that Carville endorses Clinton and did an online fundraising promo for her a few months ago.

• Andrew Sullivan says Hillary won the debate: "It kills me to admit it. But there you are. And as it sinks in, a dreadful specter emerges. Think June 2008. Think Romney vs Clinton. Plastic vs Perma-Freeze. It could happen."

Tonight: A Dem Debate
Just to remind everybody, tonight the Democratic candidates will debate in New Hampshire. Tune in to CNN at 7 p.m. to watch. This will be followed up by a similar Republican debate on Tuesday.

Poll: Hillary Still Leads, Edwards Sinking
A new Washington Post/ABC News poll shows that Hillary Clinton is maintaining a solid lead among the national Democratic Primary electorate. She gets 35% of Democrats, followed by Barack Obama at 23%, non-candidate Al Gore at 17%, and John Edwards at an disappointing 8%. Edwards has sunk 6 points from the April 15 WaPo/ABC poll, when he had 14%, while the enthusiasm surrounding Obama appears to have waned somewhat. On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani leads with 32%, followed by John McCain at 19% and Fred Thompson at 11%, then Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney with 9% each.

Poll: Rudy Slips, But Still Dominates GOP Field In Many Categories
That same WaPo poll also contains some very interesting numbers about Rudy. It finds that 50% of GOP voters are "less likely" to vote for him because of his pro-abortion and pro-gay rights positions; while that 50% is not all that high, a substantial 67% say there's "no chance" they'll vote for him. On the flip side for Rudy, he continues to dominate the GOP field by large margins in sub-categories such as who is viewed as the "strongest leader" and who can best be trusted to handle a "major crisis," though Rudy's lead in such categories has slipped somewhat.

Iraq War Dominates Iowa Dem Dinner
The Iraq War was the main topic of discussion at last night's Iowa Democratic Party Hall of Fame dinner. John Edwards called upon Congress to have the "backbone" to force an end to the war, and Chris Dodd said, "We ought to have the conviction to stand up to this president now." Hillary Clinton rhetorically asked the crowd, "And are you ready to end the war in Iraq, bring our troops home and restore America's reputation around the world?" while Bill Richardson declared, "Here today, I call on the Congress of the United States to de-authorize the war. De-authorize the war." Of the five candidates who showed up, only Joe Biden dissented from such a forceful stance, saying that things don't work that easily. "I love the platitudes I hear about just have the Congress end the war tomorrow," Biden said. "There's a way to end this war. And it takes responsible leadership to do it."

Iraq War Also Dominates New Hampshire Dem Event
The five candidates who attended the New Hampshire Dems' 2007 Midterm Convention — Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Bill Richardson, Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel — focused on the war. "There is a way to end this war so my son doesn't have to go and so my grandson will not have to go back 15 years from now." said Biden. "Instead of talking about a surge in military power, how about a surge in diplomacy?" Dodd asked rhetorically. Bill Richardson said the war can be ended in an effective manner: "How do we do that? With diplomacy." "Peace is inevitable if we have a President who is willing," said Kucinich. And Mike Gravel offered a novel solution: "Make the continuation of the war a felony, and if you disobey, you go to jail for five years."

DSCC Trying To Recruit Strong Challenger To Stevens
The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee is attempting to recruit Anchorage, Alaska, Mayor Mark Begich to challenge longtime Senator Ted Stevens (R), hopeful that possible ethics scandals could be an issue against the Senate's most senior Republican. Mark Begich is the son of the late Congressman Nick Begich (D-AK), who served one term in the House of Representatives before his death in a 1972 plane crash.

Bill Clinton To Headline Arizona Dem Fundraiser
Bill Clinton will headline an annual dinner for the Arizona Democratic Party, plus a big-money reception ($2,000 and up for a ticket!), on June 25. In 1996, Bill Clinton became the only Democrat since Harry Truman in 1948 to carry the state. It would not be at all surprising to see Bill's fundraising prowess for local Democrats generate some dividends — in the form of endorsements for Hillary's campaign.

Internet Evangelist Says Anti-Romney Line Was "Spiritual Statement"
Americans United for Separation of Church and State has filed an IRS complaint against Florida-based Internet evangelist Bill Keller, who declared on his May 11 edition that "if you vote for Mitt Romney, you are voting for Satan!" and that Romney's nomination by the GOP would "ultimately lead millions of souls to the eternal flames of hell." Keller responded to the complaint, telling the Washington Post, "Let them come after me for making a spiritual statement about Mitt Romney. I would love that. Bring it on."

Congresswoman Fran Drescher?
Actress Fran Drescher, best known for starring in the sitcom The Nanny, plus her roles in such cult classic movies as UHF and This Is Spinal Tap, may attempt to turn her current activism on behalf of cancer patients into a future bid for elective office. The actress told The New York Daily News, "I do see myself getting involved in politics in that way down the road, becoming an elected official, but right now the big thing I'm climbing is the 'Cancer Schmancer Movement.'" If she were to run for office, the News hypothesizes that she would run as a Democrat against Congressman Peter King (R-NY).