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Why Are Moderate Senate Dems Reluctant To Back Short-Term Iraq War Funding Option?

Okay, everyone is rightly focused on today's Washington Post piece reporting on the new Iraq plan being debated by House Dem leaders. The proposal would fund the bill through September but withhold half those funds until July, at which point the second chunk of funding would be contingent on President Bush reporting political progress in Iraq.

But here's another question: Why exactly is the Senate leadership wary of this approach, as has been reported here and elsewhere? Here's a clue buried in The New York Times today:

Senator Ben Nelson, a Nebraska Democrat, said he would be reluctant to support it unless it attracted enough bipartisan support to offset criticism that it was shortchanging American troops.

He and others said they would prefer that negotiations between the White House and Congress focus on reaching agreement on a measure that would pay for the war through Sept. 30, with the legislation including a set of benchmarks by which to measure the Iraqi government’s progress. Talks between lawmakers and senior White House officials were tentatively set to resume Wednesday.

The suggestion, of course, is that Nelson, and perhaps a few other moderate Dem Senators, are wary of any approach that would tie troop funding directly to progress in Iraq for fear of being painted as defunding the troops. Is this wariness confined to Nelson, and can it be overcome?

Such wariness among moderate Dems is probably something the Senate leadership is mindful of -- particularly since the extremely small edge Dems hold in the Senate means that a handful of Senators bolting could scuttle the legislation. And this perhaps explains why Senate leader Harry Reid's office is taking a wait-and-see approach to the House Dem plan.


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The downside of having a political party that is truly a big tent.

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The first paragraph of wapo article:

"Congressional leaders from both political parties are giving President Bush a matter of months to prove that the Iraq war effort has turned a corner, with September looking increasingly like a decisive deadline."

But nowhere in the rest of the article do they quote any dem by name or even anonymously as saying anything remotely similar to 'lets wait till September and see how things are going.'

Even the nyts Nelson quote doesn’t help wapo. Nelson doesn’t want to wait till September and see what happens. He wants benchmarks and more now.

wapo has become nothing but rnc talking points wrapped in prettier paper than the limbuagh show.

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Maybe the reason is that the Senate doesn't want to get embroiled in the same battle two months from now that it just wasted the past two months fighting.

I'm not saying that the issue is unimportant--far from it. But there are other issues too that democratic Senators would like to address as well, I imagine. They derived their political and popular clout from the stand-off with the White House, and the marginal utility of doing it again in July is lower than working in other ways for the American people.

Just a guess here, I admit. (I haven't performed the utility calculations.)

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well, in fairness to wapo, they did have the details of the latest House Dem proposal, which I think is actually a sign of Dem aggressiveness on Iraq. that is, of course, a turnaround from wapo's previous message about Dems, which is that they're caving, caving, caving

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Harry Reid has to think about what language will keep Joe Lieberman's support, and not piss him off enough to bolt. Not a job I'd want, especially when Reid's inclination is to support much stronger accountability.

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So why not put the benchmarks where they belong, right on Bush???

Make him define, in detail, what victory will look like, and what his plan is for withdrawl.

Give Bush a timetable for completing these "homework" tasks, and then consider funding this war.

PEACE

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Here's an idea for Ben: communicate the truth to your constituents and run on that truth.

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Shorter Ben Nelson: I'm way too limited and unimaginative to convince my constituency this bill does not harm the troops.

Perhaps the problem with the Dems is not that we have red-state moderates, but we just don't have ones that are all that bright. Instead of worrying about how Republicans criticize the bill, he might want to start explaining why the criticisms are unfounded.

Well, what am I saying. It's Nebraska, right? Red state.

I'm sure the other Senator from Nebraska is equally hesitant about bipartisanship when it comes to the war in Iraq.

Pretty sure, at least... 

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There is no bill that LIEerman would support other than a total cave to what W wants. Sen. L is not a Democrat any more. There is a better chance at getting Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR) than LIEerman.

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Sounds like Nebraska is a place where Moveon.org should be spending some money on those great ads they've put together.

Message, message, message.

Advocacy groups that want mandatory withdrawal timelines must target such states to make it easy for their elected officials to vote to get the hell out.

Does anyone doubt for a moment that Bush won't report in July and again in Sept that everything is coming up roses in Iraq?

Denying reality is perhaps the President's single greatest strength.  

Does anyone think a vote in July that effectively cuts off all troop funding for troops in Iraq is tenable?

The 'compromise' is a measured withdrawal of troops over time to Q1 2008, which, by the way, was the recommendation of the ISG, not that anyone seems to be talking now.

Let's not mince words. If the WaPo story is accurate, what the Dems are doing is capitulating to the demands of the GOP who are desperate for a face-saving life line.

What the Democratic leadership should be doing is letting the GOP twist in the wind while public opinion continues to sour on them as well as Bush. But of course, this takes real leadership.....

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Nelson doesn’t want to wait till September and see what happens. He wants benchmarks and more now.

The idea of "benchmarks by which to measure the Iraqi government’s progress" would be really good if, like, they actually had a government.

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Kudos to you for explaining your disagreement. I don't think the above comment deserved a "1" though...

It wasn't any more "unproductive" than, say, your comment. 

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Referring to the article:

any approach that would tie troop funding directly to progress in Iraq for fear of being painted as defunding the troops.

All you have to do is reverse this statement. The only way this makes sense from a political standpoint is if you're already convinced that there won't be any progress. I know it sounds facile, but the only way that benchmarks can be seen as defunding the troops is if you don't think there will be any change in the war. It's a pessimistic standpoint.

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"....There has been an enormous amount of disinformation, some of it intentional, on all sides about what the bill we will vote on today does. It is important that Nebraskans understand the facts about what the common sense legislation passed by the Senate does and does not do.

First, the legislation does not:

• cut funding for our troops in the field
• require a precipitous withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq or set mandatory withdrawal timelines.... "

Where We Stand On Iraq
Senators Chuck Hagel and Ben Nelson
March 29th, 2007

http://hagel.senate.gov/index.cfm?FuseAction=Speeches.Detail&Speech_id=34&Month=3&Year=2007

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IMO, the WaPo "reporting" comes with an agenda:

September Could Be Key Deadline in War
Lawmakers Call for Proof of Progress by Fall

By Jonathan Weisman and Thomas E. Ricks
Washington Post Staff Writers
Tuesday, May 8, 2007; Page A01

Congressional leaders from both political parties are giving President Bush a matter of months....

All 4 of these "reports" originate from Jonathan Weisman... Clearly, he is trying to deliver the same message in all of these articles:

Democrats Back Down On Iraq Timetable
Compromise Bill in Works After Veto Override Fails

By Jonathan Weisman and Shailagh Murray
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, May 3, 2007; Page A01

President Bush and congressional leaders began negotiating a second war funding bill yesterday, with Democrats offering the first major concession: an agreement to drop their demand for a timeline to bring troops home from Iraq.
.......
Weisman had to correct his story, and there is not much left to it, after this correction:
Quote:

Correction to This Article
A May 3 Page One article about negotiations between President Bush and congressional Democrats over a war spending bill said the Democrats offered the first 9major concession by dropping their demand that the bill it include a deadline to bring troops home from Iraq. While Democrats are no longer pushing a firm date for troop withdrawals, party leaders did not specifically make that concession during a Wednesday meeting with Bush at the White House.

It was Weisman who brought us Leon Paneta's "cautions" to the dems.... TWICE:

Democrats To Widen Conflict With Bush
Some on Both Sides See Plans as Risky

By Jonathan Weisman
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, April 2, 2007; Page A01

...Leon E. Panetta, who was a top White House aide when President Bill Clinton pulled himself off the mat through repeated confrontations with Congress, sees the same risk. He urged Democrats to stick to their turf on such issues as immigration, health care and popular social programs, and to prove they can govern.

"That's where their strength is," Panetta said. "If they go into total confrontation mode on these other things, where they just pass bills and the president vetoes them, that's a recipe for losing seats in the next election."....

....and one more time:

Democrats' Momentum Is Stalling
Amid Iraq Debate, Priorities On Domestic Agenda Languish

By Jonathan Weisman and Lyndsey Layton
Washington Post Staff Writers
Saturday, May 5, 2007; Page A01

....."The primary message coming out of the November election was that the American people are sick and tired of the fighting and the gridlock, and they want both the president and Congress to start governing the country," warned Leon E. Panetta, a chief of staff in Bill Clinton's White House. "It just seems to me the Democrats, if they fail for whatever reason to get a domestic agenda enacted . . . will pay a price.".......

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Is this supposed to be some kind of revelation that "moderate" Democrats are a bunch of pussies scared of their own shadows? I'm sorry, but when are the other Senate Democrats going to stop paying such deference to these chickens? It is their "moderate" fearful approach that makes the nation think of Democrats as a bunch of scared children who not only don't have any courage, but don't have any beliefs they think are worth standing up and fighting for. The leadership should lean on them like a ton of bricks until they find their balls.

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J. McCutchen

September? Sounds like a timetable to me. Keep the pressure on. Nelson's in a peculiar position as he is designated point on the effort to get Republican moderates to bolt.

Keep the pressure on. Give them the 2 month short leash and let the Senators squirm

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If you go by voting record, Ben Nelson is more of a Republican than Lieberman.

Its the "moderate" Democrats that gave Bush the OK to invade Iraq.

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there's no way lieberman will vote for this if it does anything at all to hold the Iraqi government accountable for meeting benchmarks in any way...

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Last month, Reid co-sponsored a bill with Feingold to require Bush to safely redeploy our troops from Iraq. The language of the legislation reads:

(a) Transition of Mission - The President shall promptly transition the mission of United States forces in Iraq to the limited purposes set forth in subsection (d).

(b) Commencement of Safe, Phased Redeployment from Iraq - The President shall commence the safe, phased redeployment of United States forces from Iraq that are not essential to the purposes set forth in subsection (d). Such redeployment shall begin not later than 120 days after the date of the enactment of this Act.

(c) Prohibition on Use of Funds - No funds appropriated or otherwise made available under any provision of law may be obligated or expended to continue the deployment in Iraq of members of the United States Armed Forces after March 31, 2008.

(d) Exception for Limited Purposes - The prohibition under subsection (c) shall not apply to the obligation or expenditure of funds for the limited purposes as follows:

(1) To conduct targeted operations, limited in duration and scope, against members of al Qaeda and other international terrorist organizations.

(2) To provide security for United States infrastructure and personnel.

(3) To train and equip Iraqi security services.

That's where Reid wants to go. His problem is how to get there. I read the day to day maneuvering in that light.

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Well, it's a different bill being discussed in the NYT story.

But your point is well taken. Although I understand even less Nelson's reluctance. I mean, he's OK with the bill that was passed, but now not this one? Why? Because it holds up funds in July?

It's a bit too nuanced for me. Either your with Bush, or against him.

Passing "benchmarks for the Iraqi government" is a crock of crap. They have no government. They'll never meet benchmarks. All that does is allow more people, both American and Iraqi, to die. 

 

Our obligation is to define the liberty of all, not to mandate our own moral code. -- SCOTUS that was...

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The arithmetic is a problem for Sen Reid. He cannot count on Joe, has Nelson always on the edge of the Republican side, has an absentee Sen for now: that's three down. The Senate has always been a problem, even for Republicans with their 55-45 votes. Democrats must keep the pressure on Bush: focus on the veto and what that costs the troops. Add to that the state of disrepair of equipment for our National Guard and its impact on local emergencies. We must point to all the costs of this war.

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Yeah, and of course everyone knows there will be no change. All this talk about September and these bills is political cover.

Come September, we're going to be exactly as we are now. Only with more people dead.

The insurgency can always wait us out. It's their country. 

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I'm sorry, but when are the other Senate Democrats going to stop paying such deference to these chickens?

When they have enough votes to ignore them.

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In the lookinglass world of the GOP, this is where the blackmail begins. "Supporting the troops" means keeping them in the cauldron indefinitely.
Or at least until Bush and Cheney are out. Then it's someone else's problem, and, the way things are going with the GOP's implosion, the Democrats' war to "lose".

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I wish that were true, but I remember many times in the past when Democrats had enough votes to ignore those types and they didn't. They need to pressure them and twist their arms and force them to go along. That's one area where our side can and should learn from the Republicans. You never see the Republican moderates defecting on a Republican proposal to the point where they kill it. Our side should not allow it either.

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Sen. Ben Nelson needs to have the courage of his convictions and not try to hide behind silly bipartisanship.

I find it incredibly hard to believe that an incumbent very conservative Democratic Senator in Nebraska seriously opens himself up politically by passing a bill with either timelines or mandatory benchmarks for the Iraqi government. I doubt Nebraskans are clamoring for the Iraq War to continue indefinitely.

If he can't ably rebut the feeble defunding the troops argument at this point in his career, how did he get elected in the first place?

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Nice compilation. He's obviously someone to watch, esp. since all of these articles show up on page A1 of WaPo.

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Surprising (to me), but it's Greg's designation of these Democrats as "moderate" -- he didn't use quotes to distance himself from that description, as I do, or as Oleeb does above.

My question is to Greg: How is it these Democrats are "moderate" and not "right wing" or "conservative" Democrats? Given the Democratic Party's range of voices, certainly this would be a clearer description of these Senators' orientation within the Dems Big Tent, would it not? They may be viewed as "moderate" when considered part of the vast spectrum of American politics (though I suspect that too is arguable) but certainly they're not "moderates" among Democrats. They represent the party's right wing.

I don't intend to be quarrelsome; I'm simply interested in understanding the clarifications.

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Nice catches.

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First of all, Ben Nelson is not a "moderate" Democrat, in any sense of the word. He's a right-wing Democrat, always has been. John Kerry is a "moderate" Democrat; Hillary Clinton is a "moderate" Democrat. Ben Nelson doesn't come any closer than Joe Lieberman to the term "moderate."

Second of all, if right-wing Democrat Ben Nelson wants to vote with Bush and the GOP, he'll have great company in Joe Lieberman, the pseudo-independent "Republican" in the Senate.

Thirdly, the entire bill should be re-sent, in its original form, to the President for re-consideration, as many times as is necessary to convince the White House and the American people to see the truth: Bush is withholding funding for the troops.

No, let's re-phrase that last statement: The entire bill should be re-sent, in its original form, to the President for re-consideration, as many times as is necessary to convince the White House to see what the American people already know: Bush is withholding funding for the troops, aid to Katrina victims, health care funding for Iraq/Afghanistan war veterans, and funding to make the armoured humvees safe so that troops are not trapped inside when they hit an IED, as is now the case.

If Bush doesn't care about funding to fix that flaw, Democrats should make damn sure the American people are aware of it. Ben Nelson can go kiss a goat. He's no "moderate."

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There's no tent big enough to cover both Ben Nelson and me. Not now, not before, not ever.

Seriously, more effort should be spent on Snow and Collins from Maine and Sununu from New Hampshire, and stop wasting breath on Nelson. He'll cave if you get more than two Republicans.

Coleman of MN should also be a target for "bi-partisanship".

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Greg, you responded to April 2nd WaPo's Jonathan Weisman's reporting of Leon Paneta's "cautions" to the Dems, according to this
http://mydd.com/story/2007/4/2/111531/1404

...critique of Weisman's slanted (biased ??) reporting, before his next three Page A01 "pieces" with the same unsubstantiated "Dems risk over reaching" theme, were written....so I'm puzzled by your "in fairness to WaPo" post, now.

I can't see why you would make the effort now, after three more Weisman pieces, to post "in fairness to the WaPo".

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Ricks is pretty good though. His book "Fiasco" doesn't pull any punches. Maybe they teamed him with Weisman to keep him honest.

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In fairness to the Wapo got some Dems to feed them the details of the proposal and reported them accurately. Babysteps at being a responsible news outlet should be encouraged. Unless of course you have the money to set up a competing newspaper with instant crediblity in the nation's capital.

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He'll fall back on Petraeus. Must fight until we win can't tie the generals' hands.

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I find it utterly incredible, even in this day of sticky sound-bites, that the Dems can't find the language with which to decouple their bill from "unfunding" the troops. That is such a bogus concern, but the Reps have succeeded in selling an image of some poor soldier standing with his pants around his ankles and an empty gun in his hands. It simply isn't accurate. Why doesn't "Dammit, we ARE funding the troops!" carry enough weight to shove aside the false patriotism of the right-wing labels?

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Seems a little more than immoral to be willing to let hundreds of soldiers die so that you can avoid possible criticism. Maybe Ben Nelson needs to take the advise of another Senator from Nebraska and go sell shoes.

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oops-responding to the wrong post

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Here's an idea for a way to decouple efforts to defund the war from the charge of "stranding" the troops:

What if, IN ADDITION TO whatever stop-gap funding appropriation Congress approves, they attach a separate appropriation devoted to funding the safe withdrawal of troops. They'd have to take a guess at how much money would be required, but whatever the amount, it could be used only to bring the troops home, while ensuring their safety. Once that fund began to be used, troops would have to start coming home, and no new troops could be sent. (Basically, borrowing language from the bill sponsored by Reid & Feingold that wglad cited above.)

The point here is NOT to attach this "withdrawal only" condition to the emergency funds Congress would provide for ongoing operations in Iraq. Instead, they would be giving the president what he demands--supplemental funding (albeit in the short term) with no deadlines or strings attached. At the same time, though, they would ensure that a significant fund had been appropriated to bring the troops home safely, thus defusing the (already mistaken) accusation that Democrats who oppose the war don't support the troops. The money to protect and repatriate our troops would already be available.

The legislative disadvantage of this approach is that this bullet is no longer in the gun; the Congress can only pass this legislation once. I think the political advantage outweighs that, however; the Congress would be on record as unequivocally supporting the safety of troops as they withdraw. To trigger that withdrawal, Congress has only to refuse further funds at any time in the future. In addition, I believe opponents of the war will be negotiating from a position of greater strength in the public discourse. Among other things, the public's awareness that this money, which could bring our troops safely home, is just SITTING there during the coming months could further energize and focus anti-war sentiment in the country--especially if it's a large-enough sum (over, say, $100 billion).

I doubt that President Bush would find it politically tenable to veto such legislation, especially if it was attached to the immediate supplemental funding for the war.

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I am SO sick of this cowardly political gamesmanship by frightened Dems. "Bipartisan" is code for giving the Republicans their way. Democrats better get a spine soon or I will bolt for a third party, and I don't think I'll be alone.

Sen. Feingold would be a stellar independent candidate. Unfortunately, he is (according to conventional wisdom) "disqualified" for having been divorced the same number of times as Rudy Giuliani.

Hell, get him remarried and cross-dress him a time or two and he can run as a Republican.

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Listen, the whole debate about funding the troops? Pops and his network will come through with the cash for Junior and his war. So Congress may as well stand strong, hang tough - or go down in history as the ones bailing Junior out from his latest escapade.

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No, Poppy and Co. won't come through with cash for Junior's war. Do some arithmetic -- start by looking up the term "trillion" in the dictionary. Besides, spending their own money on wars is not their style.

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I would need to have a better understanding of the dynamics of the Nebraska electorate in order to be able to respond intelligently, but at least he's more reality based than the junior senator from Connecticut.

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The other senator from Nebraska, Chuck Hagel, is a Republican who has spoken out very strongly against the war in Iraq. How about a trade? If Nelson can't stand the heat, he should get out of the kitchen.

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