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Poll: Edwards Rising In New Hampshire; McCain Beating Rudy In Key States
Some interesting new primary state poll numbers just in from American Research Group:
Dems:
New Hampshire: Clinton 37%, Edwards 26%, Obama 14%, Richardson 3%, Biden 2%Iowa: Edwards 27%, Clinton 23%, Obama 19%, Biden 6%, Richardson 5%
This poll finds Obama in third in both states, though he's in second in South Carolina. Most surveys have shown Edwards in third in New Hampshire; he appears to have been steadily rising in the state.
Republicans:
Iowa: McCain 26%, Giuliani 19%, Romney 14%, Thompson 13%New Hampshire: McCain 29%, Romney 24%, Giuliani 17%, Thompson 7%
McCain besting Rudy in both states, and also in South Carolina, according to the poll.
Update: Also note: Rudy in third in New Hampshire.
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What's interesting is that Edwards is up 6 in New Hampshire but down 6 in Iowa from the last ARG polls, while Clinton is steady in New Hampshire but down 11 in Iowa, and Obama is up 3 in Iowa but down 9 in New Hampshire.
The fact that everyone is so close in Iowa right now may end up being the most important dynamic for the rest of the primary season if a frontrunner fails to emerge.
New Hampshire ARG polls:
Now: Clinton 37%, Edwards 26%, Obama 14%, Richardson 3%, Biden 2%
March 23: Clinton 37%, Obama 23%, Edwards 20%
Iowa ARG polls:
Now: Edwards 27%, Clinton 23%, Obama 19%, Biden 6%, Richardson 5%
March 23: Clinton 34%, Edwards 33%, Obama 16%
May 1, 2007 2:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pretty interesting that Guiliani is dropping as he tries to outBush McCain on Iraq.
May 1, 2007 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
GOP comparisons are also interesting. McCain down 3 in IA, up 6 in NH, Giuliani down 10 in IA, down 2 in NH, Romney up 4 in IA, up 7 in IA.
Iowa ARG polls:
March 23: Giuliani 29%, McCain 29%, F. Thompson 12%, Romney 10%
Now: McCain 26%, Giuliani 19%, Romney 14%, Thompson 13%
New Hampshire ARG polls:
March 23: McCain 23%, Giuliani 19%, Romney 17%
Now: McCain 29%, Romney 24%, Giuliani 17%, Thompson 7%
May 1, 2007 2:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why do two small mostly rural states with almost no minority populations control the Democratic party nomination?
May 1, 2007 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pretty hard to see how Obama would have lost 40% of his support in NH, dropping from 24% down to 14%, during a month when he exceesed expectations on fundrasing, did fine in the debate, and was getting mostly good national press. Doesn't fit, but we will see.
May 1, 2007 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama fluctuates pretty dramatically depending on the poll. I take this as his "support" being weak above the 15% mark. Similar with Edwards, though I do expect him to beat Obama in both Iowa and NH. What will become more important now is Nevada. If Obama were to come in third in the the first three states, I don't think he'll do well in SC.
I also wouldn't expect Clinton to fizzle in Iowa. She has the Vilsacks who helped Kerry pull out his "surprise" win. (He had been showing strong gains in the weeks leading up to the caucuses.) With both Obama and Edwards splitting the anti-Clinton vote, it will be close to impossible for Clinton to lose. I don't think any current candidates will be able to get Clinton below 35-40%, which means one of the other candidates will have to get 50% and everyone else only 10%. I don't see that happening.
May 1, 2007 4:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary continues to fade in poll after poll after poll and you keep claiming her support is rock solid. Do you think you could possibly be wrong?
I suspect that Hillary may not even be a factor by the time the first votes are counted.
For my own part, I will not vote for Hillary for any office including president. I got to vote against her twice already since I live in New York, where she won a huge victory.
Hardly surprising our votes were marginalized but I think it is becoming increasingly clear Hillary remains the same Republican Lite she has always been.
I freely admit my views run counter to my attempt at objectivity but the polls tend to support my thinking rather than yours.
Best, Terry
May 1, 2007 10:38 PM | Reply | Permalink